16 Stocks to Buy Now‼️ July 2026
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Te0UcehJMk
Status
Analyzed
Requested On
July 11, 2026 at 06:37 PM
Overall Performance
+2.64%
Recommendations
AMD
SELL
"I want to get out of AMD like in the next 6 to 12 months because I believe, you know, it's almost a guarantee that 28 is flattish capex for these companies."
Context: "I want to get out of AMD like in the next, you know, from the majority of my shares. I want to get out in the next 6 to 12 months because I believe..."
Price on publish date: $517.41
Last day closing price: $557.89
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
$-40.48
(-7.82%)
NFLX
BUY
"Netflix in the 70s"
Context: "The 16 stocks are Netflix in the 70s, Celsius in the 30s, Nike in the 40s..."
Price on publish date: $75.59
Last day closing price: $73.37
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
$-2.22
(-2.94%)
CELH
BUY
"Celsius in the 30s or in the 20s is my opinion the best buy right now."
Context: "Celsius in the 30s or in the 20s is my opinion the best buy right now."
Price on publish date: $30.60
Last day closing price: $30.60
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
+$0.00
(+0.00%)
NKE
BUY
"Nike in the 40s"
Context: "The 16 stocks are Netflix in the 70s, Celsius in the 30s, Nike in the 40s..."
Price on publish date: $42.89
Last day closing price: $44.37
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
+$1.48
(+3.45%)
ELF
BUY
"I have to put E.L.F. in the 70s as the next best buy."
Context: "I have to put E.L.F. in the 70s as the next best buy."
Price on publish date: $74.15
Last day closing price: $76.75
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
+$2.60
(+3.51%)
HNST
BUY
"Honest, I think that stock exits this year in the fives or a five plus, let's call it. So, the fact that it can still get in the threes, I think is very, very attractive."
Context: "Honest, I think that stock exits this year in the fives or a five plus, let's call it. So, the fact that it can still get in the threes, I think is very, very attractive."
Price on publish date: $3.90
Last day closing price: $4.01
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
+$0.11
(+2.82%)
AXP
BUY
"American Express in the 300s"
Context: "The 16 stocks are ... American Express in the 300s..."
Price on publish date: $336.39
Last day closing price: $350.58
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
+$14.19
(+4.22%)
CAKE
BUY
"Cake in the 70s"
Context: "The 16 stocks are ... Cake in the 70s..."
Price on publish date: $76.63
Last day closing price: $82.76
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
+$6.13
(+8.00%)
EL
BUY
"Estee Lauder in the 80s"
Context: "The 16 stocks are ... Estee Lauder in the 80s..." / "After that, I think Eel in the8s is the next best buy."
Price on publish date: $81.80
Last day closing price: $82.66
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
+$0.86
(+1.05%)
SOFI
BUY
"SoFi in the teens is the next best buy."
Context: "SoFi in the teens is the next best buy."
Price on publish date: $17.73
Last day closing price: $18.78
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
+$1.05
(+5.92%)
META
BUY
"Meta and Amazon are very easy buys right now"
Context: "Meta and Amazon are very easy buys right now"
Price on publish date: $603.12
Last day closing price: $669.21
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
+$66.09
(+10.96%)
AMZN
BUY
"Meta and Amazon are very easy buys right now"
Context: "Meta and Amazon are very easy buys right now"
Price on publish date: $243.62
Last day closing price: $245.34
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
+$1.72
(+0.71%)
BBWI
BUY
"Bath & Body Works in the 20s or below"
Context: "The 16 stocks are ... Bath & Body Works um in the 20s or below..."
Price on publish date: $19.39
Last day closing price: $20.33
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
+$0.94
(+4.85%)
CRM
BUY
"I really like Salesforce."
Context: "Then from there, I, you know, I really like Salesforce."
Price on publish date: $166.58
Last day closing price: $163.32
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
$-3.26
(-1.96%)
WHR
BUY
"Whirlpool really needs the housing market to turn around. Housing market is dead right now. That comes back, Whirlpool should run heavy."
Context: "At the end, I would put like the whirlpools, the PayPal, those sorts of stocks as kind of the least attractive of those 16. But those have pretty dramatic upside over the next 1 to two years assuming you know their numbers turn around. Whirlpool really needs the housing market to turn around."
Price on publish date: $37.67
Last day closing price: $40.72
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
+$3.05
(+8.10%)
PYPL
BUY
"PayPal. Yeah, know that stock is dirt cheap. Absolutely dirt cheap."
Context: "At the end, I would put like the whirlpools, the PayPal, those sorts of stocks as kind of the least attractive of those 16."
Price on publish date: $44.53
Last day closing price: $46.32
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
+$1.79
(+4.02%)
NOW
BUY
"I really like Service Now."
Context: "Then from there, I, you know, I really like Salesforce. I really like Service Now."
Price on publish date: $107.78
Last day closing price: $107.71
(Jul 11, 2026)
Profit/Loss:
$-0.07
(-0.06%)
Full Transcript
We'll have a look at that. Ladies and gentlemen, AMD AMD earnings are coming in a few weeks from now. Uh, now that it is confirmed, August 4th will be the date for AMD earnings. I want to talk about my expectations for the stock leading up to those earnings. Uh, my expectations after the earnings come out, what's going to happen to the stock, all that good stuff in this video here today. Then I want to get into 16 stocks to buy and hold for July 2026. Looking forward to sharing my opinions and perspectives on that and kind of the order I would rank the best buys in the market right now. Like fresh money going in. What are the rankings? Okay. Then after we get done going through that, I want to get into Tom Lee and his views on where this market's headed from here. And then I want to get into Mike Wilson, his views on the market as well as semiconductor stocks. So, if you own AMD, if you own Micron, SanDisk, Nvidia, Broadcom, any of these companies, uh I'm looking forward to hearing Mike Wilson's opinion, kind of sharing my opinion on the semiconductor stocks because we're at a very volatile moment for those stocks. Okay, appreciate y'all for joining me as always. We got a lot to get through, so I just need you to quickly smash that like button on this video. I'm recording this from a hotel room in New York City. I do appreciate you guys joining me as always. And the pin comment by the way down there today is to join the wait list for my private group. Private group is closed to new members right now, but we are uh accepting people on a wait list. And so if you want to join my private group when it does reopen, whenever that is to new members, you can kind of join jump to the front of the line when you join the wait list there. By the way, are you subscribed to the channel? You might want to be subscribed if you're not already. Okay. All righty. AMD, what are my expectations for AMD stock leading into the earnings? What are my expectations for AMD stock after the earnings come out? Okay, so here's the deal. Okay, listen. AMD should be incredibly strong into the earnings, assuming the market's decent, right? You know, if the whole market crashes or something like that, it's going to be hard to for AMD to to hold up in that sort of market. But assuming the markets, let's call it flattish for the next 3 to four weeks leading up into those earnings. Uh or especially if it uptrends a little bit, I think AMD will go strong into those earnings. I think a lot of people are of the understanding that this is going to be the most exciting guidance number AMD is going to have reported in a long time. And so I think there's going to be a lot of hype, a lot of excitement uh going into these earnings with that guidance specifically. Not so much the last quarter's numbers, but what is the guidance right now? What happens after the earnings come out? Well, if the number is so shocking, it's it's going to end up going even higher after earnings essentially. When I say after earnings, I don't mean necessarily just the next day because the next day can be kind of crazy, but I'm talking about the trajectory of the stock over the following, you know, um, 2, three, four weeks at that point in time, right? And so, there's a potential if the market's decent going into, you know, the next 3 to four weeks, there's a potential that AMD could go into the earnings with a six in front of it. Okay, don't get your hopes up about it, but I'm just saying like there's a potential because that stock has had a lot of momentum over the last several months and there's going to be a lot of excitement that comes into that stock because a lot of people will be of the view like if that stock, let's say it's where it's at right now, I think the stock's under $520, right? If it leads, if it's still around here or even lower going in the earnings, oh my gosh, I think the upward move when that guidance comes out could be insane, right? Now, of course, there's always a potential like the guidance isn't there, right? The guidance isn't anything for like a special beat. So, we can't just assume because I believe the guidance is going to be a shock and awe. It's going to be a dramatically larger number than what Wall Street's expecting. We can't assume that's for sure going to happen, right? There's always a potential like that doesn't happen. But, I'm just looking at it from the standpoint of the GPU demand really hits next quarter. So, I think that's going to alone boost up the numbers quite a bit more than what Wall Street's anticipating there. But in the CPU demand, I don't think they've factored in enough in regards to pricing there and the sell through for that next quarter as well. And so that's why I believe it's going to be a pretty big guidance number, much much much larger than what Wall Street's at right now. And so now, keep in mind, Lisa Sue Lou usually likes to sandbag a little bit. So she's always going to put out numbers that usually she's kind of be confident she can come in and beat, especially when it comes to revenue estimate. So let's say there's a situation where Lisa Sue comes out with the numbers, the management team comes out with the numbers, and they're dramatically bigger than what Wall Street expects. Just be of the understanding it's likely going to be even better than that when the actual numbers get reported the following quarter essentially, right? And so, and keep in mind, if the numbers are dramatically better than what everybody's anticipating, then that's going to lead everybody to start saying, "Oh, the following quarter is going to be even better, right, than what anybody anticipating." So, everybody has to start bringing up their numbers. And so, there starts to be an analyst chase in regards to revenue estimate rises and kind of for the next quarter, for the full year and those sorts of things. And so, no different than you keep seeing these analysts come out with bigger and bigger price target rises for AMD. the next thing will be uh revenue, right? And EPS as well. And then if margins come in better than anticipated, then you'll get margin raises as well. And then you just got the trifecta. And then the stock pushes higher, which causes more and more price target raises because people are way behind on the numbers. And uh it's just a beautiful, beautiful thing. Okay, so that's my expectations in regards to AMD uh kind of leading up their earnings over the next three to four weeks and then after the earnings. Okay. All righty. Next up here, let's get into 16 stocks to buy now. And how would I rank these stocks? Like, which ones are the best buys of them all right now? Okay, listen. The 16 stocks are Netflix in the 70s, Celsius in the 30s, Nike in the 40s, Elf in the 70s, Honest in the 30s, American Express in the 300s, now in the hundreds, Cake in the 70s, Estee Lauder in the 80s, Sofi in the teens, Meta in the 500s, Amazon in the 200s, Bath & Body Works um in the 20s or below, Salesforce in the hundreds, Whirlpool in the 30s, PayPal in the 40s. There's a lot of different stocks from a lot of different sectors there, right? Um, but that's actually a very wellbuilt portfolio there. You know, this is a great mix of growth stocks, great mix of value stocks, dividend stocks. I mean, you could comprise like a whole portfolio of these stocks I just laid out there. Like, that's pretty incredible, right? Now, some of these are going to be more controversial. Specifically, thinking about the stocks like the Whirlpools, the PayPals, um, those stocks are kind of a little bit more of the controversial ones. Even stocks like a Nike and Estee Lauder, those might might be seen as a little controversial, but I mean everything could be seen as controversial in the market, right? And so, where do I rank these for the best buys? I mean, Celsius in the 30s or in the 20s is my opinion the best buy right now. I think after that, I have to put E.L.F. in the 70s as the next best buy. After that, I think Eel in the8s is the next best buy. SoFi in the teens is the next best buy. Meta and Amazon are very easy buys right now, right? Don't get your hopes up about those stocks going up short term, but if you're a long-term investor and you're really focused on the next 5 years, plus, you know, those stocks should do tremendous in the next 12 months. Who knows? you know, those stocks could be down in the next 12 months, but for the next, you know, five years, dramatically higher than where they're at. Um, after those, I really like Nike in the 40s. Really, Netflix is insanely attractive right now in the 70s. I mean, that stock's a gift trading where it's trading right now. That's kind of shocking. Uh, then from there, I, you know, I really like Salesforce. I really like Service Now. You know, those stocks are very hated stocks right now. Honest, I think that stock exits this year in the fives or a five plus, let's call it. So, the fact that it can still get in the threes, I think is very, very attractive. So, that's kind of how I would order them. And then at the end, I would put like the whirlpools, the PayPal, those sorts of stocks as kind of the least attractive of those 16. But those have pretty dramatic upside over the next 1 to two years assuming you know their numbers turn around. Whirlpool really needs the housing market to turn around. Housing market is dead right now. That comes back, Whirlpool should run heavy. I'm talking like run from the 30s to like the 60s, right? And you know get a double up there in the next, you know, 12 to 24 months. But, you know, I mean, who knows? The housing market could stay dead. And if the the housing market stays dead, Whirlpool's going to be stuck, right? PayPal. Yeah, know that stock is dirt cheap. Absolutely dirt cheap. So, that kind of covers that. Okay. Um, next up here, I want to let everybody know that uses thousandx.com. We have upgraded the search page here. This is what it looks like now at this point in time. So, you can run charts on it, which is absolutely beautiful. Be a one-stop shop. Here we have all the fundamentals over here, valuation metrics over here, peg ratios and all those other ratios, EPS, uh we have revenue estimates, we have EPS estimates as well here for companies. We have ownership breakdowns, the top 10 shareholders of the companies, right? We have recent insider transactions and we have historical EPS results. So estimates versus beats versus misses. and we'll keep adding on this page, making it better and better. So, really happy with where that's at. And then kind of the traditional search page, you just use that as a compare because it was kind of redundant having the search page and having the compare page because they basically did the same exact thing, right? Except search you could only look at one stock at a time versus compare, you can look at three stocks at a time. So, really, really happy with where this is all headed and uh we'll keep iterating on this. Keep making it better and better and better. Okay. All right, guys. Let's react to some Wall Streeters >> officer of funds capital as well as a CBC contributor. You weren't really impressed with June uh that much in terms of the the averages kind of stalling out and you expect uh you expect July to be better as valuations are more reasonable and and sentiment is not crazy bullish. Does that sum things up? >> Uh yeah, I mean July we're going to get Q2 earnings, >> right? And uh in the first quarter, earnings came in way better than expected. And so the market's PE is actually lower now than it was in January by one point, one full turn. And I think second quarter earnings are going to surprise to the upside. >> What he just explained there very important. I I have to touch on this because for everybody that wants to understand valuations on a higher level. Listen, it's very important when you're looking at a stock, you're thinking about like is a stock likely to beat what the estimates are. If they're likely to beat the estimates, then their forward PE is likely going to be way lower than what you're looking at. And what he's referring to there is like the whole market, right? The whole market in general was beating their estimates quite handily. And so the market's even cheaper today than it was prior to earnings coming out, right? And so when you see a stock and let's say it trades at a high P ratio, if it's a great growth stock, it should be able to eat up that high P ratio. For instance, uh I'll show you a great example of a stock here. Okay, let's go ahead and look at this one. Palanteers. Palunteer. Okay, Palanteer had a ridiculous forward PE, you know, a year ago or so. Ford P at that particular time was like oh gosh I want to say it was in the 200s right which looked just ridiculous and now you look at the Ford P and it's 88 right which is still very very high but it's not that high given the growth rates of the company and what happened is Palanteer just ate up that Ford P that the numbers kept coming in much better than people anticipated again and again and again in regards to Palanteer and so um now it actually you know between the stock price coming down the numbers being better than what people anticipated is actually a much cheaper stock than what it had previously been. And so he's referring to the market in general though >> again. So the market's going to get cheaper again and that means there's room for PE to expand. So I think July is going to be a stronger month for stocks. >> 8,000 is doable this year >> on the S&P. >> Yeah. And uh that's Yeah, cuz 8,000 would be roughly 20 times 2027 earnings of 400. I think that's a low estimate. I think the you know the PE multiple could be 22 or better. So that would be you know even 84 8800 kind of would be the upside into year end. But I do think between now and year end there should be you know something that might feel like a bare market too. >> Not in July but maybe you know between August and October. >> Why not in July? >> Uh well I think for the things Joe cited that you know August uh June wasn't a great month. Uh and so and I think there are a lot of fund managers trailing the benchmark this year. You know only 23% of fund managers are beating the large cap growth index. That's the lowest number in almost 5 years. So I think there's going to be a lot of dip buying this month. >> What is a what do you mean? >> Yeah. I think what he's making there is a hard case. This is a very hard case. He's basically making a case that earnings are going to be much better than anticipated. Right. When are all these earnings coming out? They're all coming out like the heavy amount of the important earnings are coming out the end of July and the first few weeks of August, right? That's when you get the bulk of it. Okay, so let's say all the earnings come out way better than anticipated and let's say the guidance is strong, good conference calls. Well, that's going to be hard to push the market down in August and he's making a call that well maybe between August and October you have the market week. If earnings are really if they really come in like that much better than anticipated good guidance how you going to get the market down in August it's going to be difficult right not to say it's impossible but it's just going to be difficult now if your earnings are weaker then then we got a case you know of like oh earnings aren't really there guidance isn't really there push the market down sell >> feels like a bare market doesn't go down does it go down 20%. uh you know it might >> and what average are we talk are we talking about the NASDAQ or the S&P >> I think both you know I this year the February to April decline felt like a bare market and that was only 7%. Um but I think you know in later this year we have a few things that will test the market. You know one is the the >> listen who did that feel like a bare market to feel like a bare market to me. I like that was not a a heavy drop. You know, Liberation Day, that was that was something, right? 2022 was brutal. But the recent one that was didn't feel like a bare market. That was, you know, maybe maybe cuz Tom Lee's also very involved with crypto, Ethereum, and he also makes Bitcoin calls as well. Maybe maybe that's why he felt it like that, but I'm like, I didn't feel it like that. That was that was easy peasy lemon squeezy to get through that. market is going to test the new Fed >> because he is a new framework and a new way to look at inflation and >> we know that there's going to be an a gradual unlock of the SpaceX shares and that's a headwind and I do think uh you know there is going to be a cumulative shortage of petroleum products so that's a headwind and I think margin debt's kind of high so I think four things that could unravel in a way that might feel like a bare market >> yeah an interesting call um you know I mean if he he was talking there about cuz you know Joe asked him like 20% plus decline and what are we talking the NASDAQ he said both S&P and the NASDAQ right it's a big call it's a big call um I mean if you're a consistent buyer in the market like I am right and you're buying every week or you're buying several times a month like you know you got almost hope for that happen I mean a bare market like gez you know what what do we know about every single bare market in history we know one thing It's the greatest buying opportunities you ever get, you know, and so if you get that situation, which I have doubts, but if it does happen this year, uh, take advantage, take full advantage because, you know, those come very few and far between. And I'm surprised he makes that call because we had a bare market last year, you know, early in the year with the liberation day situation. So, yeah, I'm very surprised, very surprised he's making that call. Okay. All right. Next one up here, Mike. >> Good morning. Let's just start with the stability. >> I think the easier call to make if you want to talk about like being negative on the market, the easier call to make in my opinion would be next year's a weak year, right? Cuz you likely already had probably SpaceX, Anthropic, Open AI go public. Let's say those stocks weak, so they pull the market down. Let's say all the semiconductor stocks top this year and the first quarter of next year, right? and then the the market's kind of looking for guidance and people don't really want to get in the big tech and so then the market just flounders and then it starts to go down, right? I I think that's an easier call to make than a bare market this year. Much easier to make like we get a bare market next year or something like that. But you know, you never know how the the whole market can shake out. So, you know what I mean? Let's assume we don't get a bare market at all this year. Let's assume we head higher all the way to fourth quarter. What will I personally be doing for next year? Let's talk about that. Okay. What I will be doing is I'll be putting on hedges in the market. If let's say semiconductor stocks get that momentum back, they all roll heavy, you know, into that fourth quarter. I could I could put some hedges actually against the semiconductor stocks at that particular time. Might be early, but I could potentially do that. I could put other hedges on as well. Um, something like SQQQ could do something there like buy calls on that. It's an inverse ETF 3x uh against the NASDAQ. I could buy calls on it if I wanted to. I mean, there's lots of different options. I don't know. We We'll figure that out. But I would I would hedge my portfolio if we run heavy. >> Basically, we're seeing in the rates market and how important that is to set the stage for what you're anticipating in the next few months. >> Yeah. I mean, I think you were saying it earlier. I was listening to the show. I mean, there's somebody expecting a hike. there's someone expecting a cut and we're on hold and this is I think what we got to get used to is that with the new chair probably not giving as much guidance he's going to allow the market to kind of figure it out on its own and have these differing different views we're in that adjustment period now and we and I think that's one of the reasons why the market's been a little choppy or even correcting in the last month or so is we're getting used to this new regime which is going to be higher volatility and potentially the bond market but over time I think what what's going to end up happening is the market's going to settle down it's going it's actually more more estimates a wider dispersion of estimates actually leads to lower volatility in the pricing over time but we're in that adjustment period so we think rates are lower ultimately uh particularly at the back end and oh by the way we've we've talked about this on the show many times new Treasury secretary you know new Fed chair this kind of new Fed Treasury accord to really anchor the back end that's what they're focused on you got to get the back end down or at least anchored because you have so much debt that you have to basically finance >> do you think in the meantime we're confused you seeing a reduction in guidance with an increase in hawkishness in the meantime. >> Yeah, I think that's right and and and the market's pricing that now. So that's the good news is that we've already had that adjustment and that adjustment started 4 months ago, right? This is why precious metals have traded really poorly. You know, the day that WorsH was announced as a nominee, the gold market peaked and that that was a sign the dollar has been stronger. So once again, the market has really gotten ahead of this. >> So rates have reset. We've come down from around 4.2% to 4.1. There's a belief this morning at least we've removed the urgency to hike as soon as July. So we can put that story to bed. Crude's decline, massive reset in crude from triple digits down to the 60s on WTI. Does that open the door within the equity market and let's talk about the stock market exclusively. Does that open the door to the broadening trade again? >> Yeah, that's that's our call basically is that that was happening at the beginning of the year. Then we had Venezuela and then Iran. By the way, the the market priced Iran before the invasion even happened or the attacks happened because because once again, it was pretty well signaled and and so that's when the broadening trade stopped. The the broading trade literally stopped the day that the attacks happened and we had the big spike in oil and then the pricing of the Fed to hike rates since or I say miday which is when we reiterated the broading call. We had a different view than most. We thought oil prices would come down and that has allowed now Fed pricing to sort of stabilize and that has allowed the broadening trade to to re to reignite. >> Small caps have performed nicely just had a massive quarter up by more than 20% on the Russell. We've seen the broadening trade speak to the performance we've seen in the equal weight on the S&P 500 as well. Let's talk about the MAG 7 which increasingly was called the lag 7. You got to note out this morning >> before we go further here. I think something very important very important in regards to commodities in and the move that happened over this year in regards to oil, right? Listen, don't get too caught up in trying to make commodity calls because I a lot of these Wall Streeters did that. They they try to make these calls that, you know, oil was going to spike higher and stay higher and we were going to have crazy oil prices over the summer and never materialized. And that was the consensus view I would say was that oil prices were going dramatically higher and you're going to see crazy like people were talking about. You know, we were going to go way over 100 for the summer. You know, maybe see 120 150. I even heard $200 calls, you know, a few months ago on where oil was headed in in, you know, where where's WTI? I don't know 60s or 70s or something like that. And so, you know, don't don't get caught up in trying to make commodity calls and then like, oh, I'm going to play oil oil and gas stocks. oil is going to go higher because of blah blah blah. No, no, no. Don't don't mess with that. >> Talking about maybe the money going back into the hyperscalers. Just walk us through how you're thinking about what's happened in tech and that divergence between the big spending companies and the beneficiaries of all that spending and the divergence that's what really widened in the last few months. >> Yeah, I mean there's a symbiotic relationship between the spenders and the beneficiaries and typically they trade sort of in lock step. And couple things I we've been writing about for the last several months. Number one, capex to sales, that particular factor has been straight up since the big beautiful bill was passed, right? That that basically uh the government's incenting businesses to spend money today rather than later. And so that capex of sales factor has been driving a lot of stocks higher. That looks like it's peaking now. And by the way, the hyperscaler stock started to trade poorly about a month and a half ago and into this idea. And but that that's not sustainable. You can't have the spender stocks trading poorly and the beneficiary stocks continuing to go straight up. And now what we saw last week, you know, Meta announced that perhaps they're going to sell some excess capacity, maybe turn into a provider of of capacity. That is just a reason for these things to take a break. Also peak rate of change on revision breath, right? The the memory stacks, the revisions have been spectacular, but there's they can only go so high. So all that's kind of happening at the same time, and I expect the hyperscalers now to stabilize. That's what's going on the last couple of weeks. And the semiconductor stocks are going to are going to correct. That's a good that's a good development. That doesn't mean the capex cycle is over. But that ebbing and flowing between the two is a natural kind of governing factor because you can't have this divergence continue is unstable. >> Your words take a break. That's interesting. Some people have called it a narrative shift for the overall trade and maybe a shift in spending too. Why is it one and not the other? >> Well, we don't know for sure, but we've had three of these already, John. So since chat was announced in November of 22, we've had three of these sort of mini cycles within the broader structural capex cycle, which is that the market starts to question, oh, the return on capital isn't good enough to support this kind of capex. What happens then? The stocks trade poorly. And then the CEOs of those companies come out and say, well, you know, maybe we won't spend as aggressively. And then it es. And so that's that's the story. That's the dance back and forth. Now there is going to be a peri there is going to be a time we don't know when it's going to happen yet where the capback cycle will exhaust itself and we will have you know we've talked about this that there is going to be malinvestment here we don't think that that spending cycle is over because they just started raising the capital in the credit market so they're going to spend the capital okay so but we can have these many cycles within the in the structural bull market of capital >> I think as you know though >> yeah the issue is and this is why you could have a you know 28 numbers could be uh flatter down capex-wise. These companies aren't raising that much money in the grand scheme of things. You know, you see they're they're all raising between seems like about 20 and 30 billion roughly from these bond sales. It's nothing. It's nothing. You know, Meta is going to likely spend 140 plus billion on capex. What's 20 What's 20 billion? What's 25 billion? It's nothing. You know, Amazon could spend upwards of 200 billion this year. So they do under they do a you know $25 billion bond sale you know okay what is that you know 15% of your overall spend or 12 a.5% or whatever the number is like that's very low it's nothing nothing so the moral of the story is here these guys are like you know maxing out their spend maxing out their spend and and so there's just not the room to take capex numbers insanely high in future years is not unless revenue growth could accelerate to such ridiculous numbers that they could keep doing it. Like if meta revenue growth sustainably stays 35% plus, okay, you can make an argument that they could do another big up in 27 and maybe one last big up in 28. But the numbers just get so ridiculously large it starts to become impausible. Uh Amazon, like if Amazon's going to spend 200 billion this year and Google and Microsoft and these companies, like what are they going to do? 300 billion next year, 400 billion, like like it's the numbers are just ridiculous. You know, it's it's taking all your profit and then some. So, you're having to add debt to your balance sheet or you're having to deplete your cash. You're having to dilute your shareholder value. Like, it's it's ugly. It's ugly. And so, um yeah, there's, you know, it's all going to come to a head. You know, if it if it it doesn't 27 is is 28. It's almost a guarantee. It's just math. forget the spending that's not yet happened. It's the intentions that matter and a deceleration in capex intentions from here. >> Which is also why I want to get out of AMD like in the next, you know, from the majority of my shares. I want to get out in the next 6 to 12 months because I believe, you know, it's almost a guarantee that 28 is flattish capex for these companies. Um or best case scenario very slightly up and there's a potential they're down in 28. And that's why I want to just, you know, cash the majority of my AMD shares over the next six to nine months. >> How do you think this market's going to internalize the prospect of that in the coming months? >> Well, it's doing it right now. So, >> the good thing is AMD has taken market share. So, it's something we got to be aware of that we'll take market share over the next few years. >> We talk about it as a peak rate of change or, you know, trough rate of change, second derivative growth. And that's exactly what's going on. There's two things we're focused on. uh earnings revision breath for the semiconductor stocks themselves are like 75%. That's about as high as it goes. We've documented that. So that's going to roll over. That doesn't mean it goes negative, but the deceleration on that can cause those stocks to correct. And then of course the hyperscalers will benefit if the market perceives these companies as being somewhat capex disciplined that they're not going to do willy-nilly spending in a way where free cash flow, you know, goes to zero or negative. And and by the way, free cash flow expectations for some of those companies are going towards zero. That's why they've underperformed. So, it's this dance, like I said, back and forth. And now, in the last week and a half, the hyperscaler, some of the hyperscaler stocks have started to trade better. That's a good sign that we're going to have this little correction. This could last, you know, four, six, eight weeks, something like that. And then we'll probably have the next upcycle for the center. >> These newer names that were in bare markets. I'm talking about Meta and Microsoft. Meta had a better week last week. Chips. You keep using this word correct. When I hear that, I'm just thinking, what do you mean by that? How much is the downside? How big is the downside for some of these chip names? >> Well, these are high beta stocks. I mean, they can correct 30 40% in a bull market. No, by the way, just look at the 200 day moving average. That's a that's probably a really good gauge. These stocks are so extended relative to those moving averages. That's how you got to think about it. Those moving averages exist for a reason, right? They always return to the moving averages. Does it happen in a violent way or does it happen kind of gradually over time? We'll have to wait and see. But yeah, 30% correction in these stocks is, I mean, well within possibility. In fact, some of them already have corrected 30%. You can have a 30% correction in chips. Just bear with me here. And you can still see the index move up and to the right on the S&P 500 even with the massive waiting they have. >> No, but I mean that's part of our call too is that we think this rotation is happening in a downtape. >> Okay. >> Unlike the correction we saw in the precious metal stocks in January because they're such a small part of the index. energy stocks had a big correction after having a great run in in in January and February. Now, the market traded off a little bit because of the war itself. But what I'm so I agree with what you're saying or your premise or your question, which is since these stocks are such a big part of the index, it's going to be really hard for the index to make any upward progress until this rotation is sort of happened. >> This is a summer story for you. >> Oh, yeah. This I don't I mean, we're not bearish on the year end. We're we're we're still 8,000 plus for year end. And we've had that call for quite a while based on the earning story. So that earning story is very much intact. In fact, the fact that we're rotating now to some of these other areas almost confirms the thesis we've had all year, which is this is not just a tech story. That's a great story. But the broadening story is the story that I think people have really underestimated. The rolling recession from a year ago, this operating leverage story, which I think is still very underappreciated. >> Do you think the banks can start working now too? >> Well, they have been. I mean the the the the money center banks and the capital markets banks related have been >> your stock absolutely government stocks fantastic. I'm talking about the others >> the regionals and so they've started to perform and that's been an area we've been highlighting. Now the yuker is flattening still or you know is having trouble kind of reepening. So I think that group could pause a bit. We took that off of our list of favorites for the for the broadening trade this week. But ultimately between now and year end we we do think the banks are going to do quite well because this is the strategy of the Treasury and the Fed is they want more lending going through the traditional lending sector. So while the York curve is flattening, loan growth is accelerating and that's feeding this whole broadening out story of the economy. Right? This is a strategy of the administration. They want a a privately driven organic economic expansion and that's what we're getting. Notwithstanding that maybe the labor market isn't as robust as some people were hoping, but that's also then feeding the earning story, right? Because you're seeing revenue growth without a crazy need to hire a bunch of people. And that's the operating leverage story 101. >> We'll talk about that cost discipline through the AMI. >> So there's a lot of different opinions regarding semiconductor stocks, right? And where those stocks are going short-term, longer term, those sorts of things, right? A lot of bullish opinions, a lot of bearish opinions. How do I view the bar the semiconductor stocks in my personal opinion? Let's call it for the next 6 to 12 months. I kind of look at them as a don't touch if you're new buy and don't short either. I I think they're just kind of like if you hold them like I do with a lot of AMD shares, right? Millions of dollars, fine. But I wouldn't feel comfortable buying these stocks because the the issue you have is I do believe a lot of these stocks will top this year or very early next year. And when we when I say top, I'm talking about it could be a multi-year top, right? And so it's like, do you want to buy into a potential multi-year top for those stocks? That's no fun. And so on the on the flip side, I would not short those stocks because you got to understand like you short them or you buy put options like you know the gains between now and then could be ridiculous. Like those stocks could double up. Like AMD could go a thousand. Plus you short AMD, you're done. You know, you got put options, they all expire worthless. Additionally, when those stocks do top, that doesn't mean right away they're crashing. they're gonna probably just move up and move down and not really go anywhere at all for probably a one to twoyear period. So, you're buying puts over that time. You're like, "Oh, these stocks have topped. They're going to crash." And it never crashes. They stay rangebound within like a 20 to 25% rangebound. Up, down, up, down, up, down. The bulls never can really get excited. The bears can never really get excited. And they just kind of Look at Nvidia. Nvidia is a great example. That stock topped last year at 200 plus, right? You could buy the stock at basically the same price today. You know, in the meantime, it's going up, it's going down, it's going all around, but it's not moving. And so that that's the type of stuff I'm talking about, right? Um it doesn't mean it, oh, just boom, crashes. Video's going from 200 to $50. Like, no, it's just like up, down, up, down, up, down, not really doing a thing, right? And so that will that will happen to a lot of these other stocks like the MUS, the AMDs, uh like the Broadcoms and a few others where they'll top they'll reach that multi-year high either this year or early next year and then they'll go through a one to two year just kind of like and uh then after that you'll have the crash. But you know that's still that's still a whole game to play out man. That's still a whole game to play out there. So, that's kind of my view on those. In the meantime, have fun, make money, and all that good stuff. Okay, appreciate you all for joining me as always. If you're looking to take your knowledge up to a much higher level, you want to apply to join my private group. You can't really apply right now, but you can join the wait list at least. And so, when you join the wait list, whenever we do open back up the private group to new members, you will be among the first to be selected to join us in there. And that is the pinned comment down there. Thanks so much for joining me. Much love as always and have a great