JOSH BROWN'S BEST STOCKS IN THE MARKET (07/14) Stock Market Analysis

Blue cloud trading [singing] through the night. >> Welcome [music] back to the channel everyone. In just a second, I'm going to play a few CNBC clips from today's episode of the halftime report. I'm going to pull up the charts and dive into the technicals of some of the mentioned stocks. We're going to look at the key support, resistance levels, momentum, and see if the price action actually backs up what the talking heads are saying. Hit that like button. Subscribe if you haven't already and let's roll the tape on the first clip. >> To bring in our investment committee, Joe Teranova, Brian Bellski, Rob Sichin, Josh Brown, give you an update on the markets. We're about a quarter past noon as you know here and we are holding on to gains in the S&P, the NASDAQ and the Russell. Dow's under pressure and you know very well what that story is about. All of it due to that historic drop in IBM today. It is the worst day ever for shares of IBM on that warning about their earnings. And I that's where I really do want to begin because you you just don't see this very often. Certainly with any stock and definitely not um IBM Bellski, you get the first uh crack at this. I mean, what do what do you make of this drop? What do you do with the stock? What do you do? We own uh a little bit in our value portfolio, Scott, for this very same reason that we thought there was going to be a little bit volatile number one as they kind of transitioned more into the software side of things. I kind of like that they came out and pre-announced and they said, "Hey, um changing buying habits in this. They had transactional volume down in their software business." Remember, this is a pre-announcement, so the numbers actually could be a little bit better, but I think they're cautioning the market, you know, uh under promise, overd deliver. But I think this sends a sign for the other software names out there and but we do like overall that they came out and talked about it. I mean you just don't often hear the kinds of negative comments that you've got today from any CEO certainly no less Arvin Christian over at at at IBM. Uh client shifted spending towards hardware purchases such as memory quote these conditions require our teams to execute perfectly and this quarter we faltered. We did not adapt and move quickly enough and numerous large deals failed to close on the timeline we expected driving the majority of our shortfall. You own the stock too >> and we're going to continue to be patient cuz we bought it at about 12 times. We're still up 60% in the name even after the fall today. >> Okay, that's a good point. In fact, what since you say that, back the chart out, guys, if you would because this is far more than a one-day event. Let's not even do yearto date. Give me a couple years on this stock. Give me a three here and and you're going to see a stock that has performed really really well. >> Yeah. >> It did the integration of Red Hat, right? There were a lot of naysayers on this name and Mr. Christen was able to to shut a lot a lot of those voices down over the past few years and now people like you may be asking new questions. I I think the story is yet to be written. What happened was a pivot in spend as we all talked about in this quarter with pricing probably increasing in some of the AI infrastructure spending which drew away from the from the software spend. I mean I think it threw cold water on the thesis that you know integrating AI will will strengthen the software business but that is for now that does not necessarily mean it's prologue and that's why we continue to be continue to be patient with the name I think you could see the narrative reemerge that they are going to be a beneficiary of the uh of the spending and the integration with software and and and and ultimately I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt. >> All right. Uh so we'll watch that obviously. Now there's another bit of fallout here. You know you could say well obviously some of the other software names would be falling in sympathy with the decline you're seeing here. Cyber not among the names that I am talking about. Why? Because the CEO also in the letter to shareholders said in addition clients were distracted with rapidly evolving industry-wide cyber security concerns in the quarter. Okay. Well, that means that they were spending in cyber security which is why Crowd Strike Josh is up 10%. Why PaloAlto is up six and why Fortnet's up three. >> So Crowdstrike is fresh off of a 41 split. This is becoming one of the biggest winners for me personally and for the overall S&P 500 of all time. I mean it's really this would be now uh if it hadn't split it would be over 800. I want you guys understand this was trading at 350 at a time when people were saying oh no AI is basically the deathnell of every software company. That narrative turned out to be so incredibly wrong in the case of the cyber security stocks. And it's notable that the IGV is actually green on a day when IBM blows up and specifically references a a lack of interest in software relative to other categories. How is that even possible? If this had happened 2 months ago, they would have hit all these cyber stocks along with IBM. They would have knocked down every software stock. But now the market is differentiating. It's getting smarter and the cyber names have grown in size within the IGV. And so that's how you have a green day for the software sector with frankly one of the most pessimistic pitch black announcements about software demand that we've heard yet. I expect that to continue and I expect the market to stop speaking of software monolithically and to start thinking about the various categories within the software space as their own individual stories that are um differently either benefited or or or put at a disadvantage due to uh AI. >> Mhm. a Fortnite record high, Octa 52- week high. Uh you have Crowd Strike, too. But the these are the names that the market's focused on today because of those comments in the letter. >> I see today's price action is somewhat consistent with the trends we've seen so far year to date. We know that it spending is going in the direction of cyber security. That's been the dominant force over the last several months. I'll defer to Rob and Brian as it relates to IBM. You guys know the the company better than I do. I would think they're diversified enough, best and breed enough, and to Scott's point, if you pull the lens back on a multi-year basis, this stock has rewarded you. But I do think there [clears throat] is going to be continued concerns as it relates to IT software services names. They are in a very challenged environment and I'm not necessarily sure how you reverse the trend where spending is going away from them instead of incentivizing the spending to come to them. I thought also I think worth noting now even though you know I don't necessarily want to talk about the the greatness of the Goldman quarter and the movement in the stock which you just don't see to that magnitude very often the commentary that we just heard David Solomon tell David Faber um about being in the early innings still of what he called not a bubble a trend u and I think that needs to be discussed as well as there's some consternation in the marketplace about where we are in this cycle who the winners and losers may very well be. >> It's debated every day and that's why you you saw in June the hyperscalers get absolutely killed. The Mag 7, they came they came raging back. There's this handoff to the software names last week. Today there's this announcement which challenges that thesis. So I think to Joe's point and it's probably the most import or maybe it was Josh's point there's going to be winners and losers. Those winners and losers are not just going to be idiosyncratic positions individual stocks. Sometimes it's going to be entire ecosystems and other ecosystems are going to get punished but that is what creates the opportunity. That is why we bought IBM at 12 times. That is why we bought Nvidia when it dropped to 29 times. Right? when you have these moves, it takes great and that's why Josh continues to buy Crowd Strike. That stock has been hit many times where it gives you an opportunity to step in. So, if you can understand these trends and that there will be winners in each vertical, a service now is going to be a winner. I don't care how bad it is. >> I get it. But this is if nothing else a bit of a gut punch to the logic of you know companies like an IBM are not going to be caught up in the same way that some of the pure and traditional SAS companies have been. They're not part of the so-called SAS apocalypse. Whereas you would learn pretty harshly and starkly today that they have challenges related to the amount of capital that's being deployed and where it is away from them. So, so there part of the announcement today was they didn't get a number of large contracts closed because some of their clients were directing those dollars elsewhere and also managing their quarters just as I have to do, just as anybody that runs a business has to do. You have to make sure you know where to spend the incremental dollar. That does not mean that that dollar is not going to get spent. It doesn't. Look, cyber security is the key. If you have a touch of security as it relates to software, I'll mention a name data dog. There's a software name working remarkably well. Why? They have a focus on cloud infrastructure. I just think the capital continues to move in that direction. And with momentum being a dominant force in the marketplace, you're not going to capture inflows of capital into IT software services without there being some really powerful fundamental catalyst. I think it's I think it's one more thing and it's the I'll I'll copy you on the gut punch thing. It's a gut punch to the theme of an industry or sector. So that's gone now. So now it's going to be individual stocks, individual stocks and that's why the cyber names are working. That's why certain software names are going to work and that's why certain software names are not working. >> No, it has been it it has largely moved already from sector slam to idiosyncratic stories. Some better than others. Take a look for example at a snowflake. Okay, it's weathered a lot of the downturn in that space in ways that other names have not. Cyber has already disconnected itself from the overall sour ender o of the software piece. >> This is a leading indicator not just for software. This is about heading into then semis and then memory. The same thing's going to happen to semis and the same thing's gonna happen to memory, >> right? because there's like the initial the that the that drop you're looking from the last fall through the winter uh and into the spring was all software is finished, right? And then you start start to realize that well maybe not all software is going to have that big of an issue and then companies like Snowflake starts themselves. >> This is about this is also about it's also about pricing power. Why didn't these deals close for IBM? Well, one logical explanation might be that companies are pushing back after 15 years of having to say yes to every price increase every time a two or a three or a 5-year uh contract came up. This automatic escalation because companies were locked in. And Salesforce is a great example of this and Adobe. You build a huge part of your business on a very critical piece of software. And no matter what they say on the renewal, the answer is basically yes. And this is how many seats I need. And thank you very much for for uh for this golf outing. Those renewals are not automatic anymore. And I want people to recognize, give me the IBM chart real quick. This stock did not plunge today from an all-time high. It plunged first last week on news that Starbucks is actively looking to cut IBM and Microsoft out of some of the things that they're being paid for. Probably because they're able to do things either with Frontier models or whatever that would take the place of some of the things that they're spending tens hundreds of millions of dollars on. And I'm not saying Starbucks is going to completely rebuild its whole tech stack away from large cap technology uh and software providers, but just the idea that it might even be a conversation is what spooks investors in these stocks. And I honestly don't think it stops with IBM. All right, so let's do this. Um if there was a common theme uh from the bank earnings today, it's that the economy and the consumer remain resilient. Diamond, Moahan, Sharf, and in many respects, Solomon, who just finished speaking to David Faber, all reiterating that Goldman's hitting a new record high. We got some trades there to discuss uh because all the banks are on the move. City was a reversal just before we came on the air today as well. Was green, [music] now it's red. Josh Brown's best stocks in the market coming up, too. But the banks, take a look at Goldman here. It's a new record high. Uh wasn't that long ago either that the stock had finally gotten over $1,000 a share for the first time ever. Well, you're at 1121 and change, which is a better than 7% gain today. That's not even the best levels of the session to this point. You want to talk about this? I I don't know that much of the quarter is a surprise. Maybe the stock moves a surprise, but when you look at what the markets have done, what the capital markets have done, what the M&A >> uh environment looks like. Yes. >> So, let me speak towards Goldman Sachs briefly. Continue to own it. I've owned it since April of 2024. I think there is much more upside in this company and to your point it is the confluence of a tremendous amount of favorable tailwinds. Those tailwinds just don't exist for Goldman Sachs. It was very clear the common denominator in the earnings of Bank of America, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs was the strength of equity trading. I want to give you some statistics. >> All record highs by the way high. So in the month of June, we did 23 billion shares of equity flow. That's with volatility down 30%. So let's not say that equity flows increased because of volatility. No, the beginning of the word I said to you, I want to be invested where there's engagement as it relates to trading. And that is the theme for 2026. We have this new class of investor that has an appeal towards the equity markets. It's domestic. It's international. It's a younger generation. It's an older generation. And that is not going away. That's a healthy market. It doesn't mean that I think the market's going up or going down. It just means there's going to be continued strong demand like we've never seen before. >> Mr. Financials. >> Yes. >> What do you think? I mean, you got a lot of uh you got a lot of ownership here. You got Bank of America. I think you have JP Morgan as well. You have Goldman Sachs. You have Wells Fargo. So, this is you city as well. Wow. Well, first off, scale. >> Is it overwhelming to think about it? [laughter] >> Did it today? It's a little >> Did it just knock you over thinking about the exposure you have? >> It really did. Um, but being uh humilous and humble as I am, we have been owning these stocks for a long time being humiliated. >> Exactly. [laughter] Um, for a long time, Scott, because of the scale the big banks do, the executing what they've done on their plan, and then the relationship side of things. the relationship side and the small banks, but think about how important relationships are with respect to the investment banking side. That's why the investment banking side was so strong in these names in in the quarter. That's why the M&A was big and Goldman. One thing you didn't hear about with any of these is wealth management. That's why I think wealth management the second half of the year with increased volatility in trading flows. It can be very strong. We think too, we think too that Croup unbelievable man. They executed on their plan record revenues. >> Why? So this was interesting and I referenced this. I'm sorry to interrupt you but I just want to for the context purpose. >> I referenced the turn in this stock when I was walking to the set. Okay. So it happened you know just before noon. Now they didn't raise their you know return on no tangible common equity. >> Is that what the market's upset about? >> I think so. But I think the market may be looking at uh at the value play that Croup was Scott relative to let's say Wells Fargo trading at three multiple points higher than Wells. The stock obviously been outperforming well. Sharf did a great job this morning talking about the future of what what the plan is in executing on on Wells Fargo. So the turnaround is complete in Croup. Jane put came in 2021 put the plan together in 2023 has rocketed. It's now caught up with the rest. So I think from a value perspective, Wells Fargo provides more. But from a pure leadership perspective, it's still JP, it's Goldman Sachs, it's Bank of America, and it's Morgan Stanley. >> And I think it's going to be Morgan Stanley in the second half of the year because of that wealth management business, which is further ahead than some of the other banks, right? And they have all those other characteristics of the other banks. >> Okay, Josh Brown, best stocks in the market coming up. Welcome back. Josh Brown's best stocks in the market. The lesson here, Josh, you say, is sticking with a couple of names that were on the list and now they're paying off. >> Yeah. So, one of the things that uh I see in terms of investor mentality, particularly people who are relatively new to the markets, they have this idea in their heads that it's a game about like batting averages and how many stocks and how many winners, almost as if it's like how many hits or how many home runs. The reality is this is not a game where variety is necessarily your friend. You want to have diversified portfolios, of course, but we don't need to be trading a new ticker every 24 hours just because the market closed and then reopened. So, one of the things we try to do with the best stocks in the market list uh at CNBC Pro is keep people updated on some of the ideas that are still live. And that's what we did yesterday. So, let's to let's take a look at travelers. They're going to report at the end of the week. We first talked about this name at uh on June 11th. Um it was right at that 308 to 310 resistance zone. It has since broke out. It's up about 12% since. This is very much still a live situation. You got sort of a small shallow low volume pullback, but still great momentum underneath the surface. The 50-day moving average here is the key, Scott. Uh it's at 309. It has risen sharply to meet price. It is the most important reference point for traders. I think longerterm investors can eyeball 300. Um if if we're above 300, I think you want to be long the name because the structure of this uptrend remains intact. Uh RSI high60s, very healthy, very deserving. The other name is Delta. We talked about this first in December in the column and we brought it to TV. It's up about 23% since then. Again, short shallow pullback here. perfectly normal for an uptrend, perfectly healthy. And what I would tell you is this is probably another viable pullback. Every single one of them on the way up has been rising 50day at 80. That has supported every meaningful dip this year. RSI has reset into the 50s um after after being overbought as the stock was pushing 90 again. Perfectly normal. Um I think the 200 day at 69 is is really uh a little bit too far away. So, what we would tell people is 80 bucks on volume if you're a longerterm investor. Uh, and and I think that would be a good line in the sand here. So, I like the riskreward. Five down to make 15 up. I think this is a $100 stock ultimately and the buyers are coming in exactly when they're supposed to. >> Okay. All right. Apple's been on the run as you know. It's been hitting new closing highs. About 320 yesterday, I think was the number it hit, which was a new intraday high. Uh, it wasn't able to hold that, but I said the stock's the best performer of the group year to date, and which it is. It's up 15.3%. Joe, today it's downgraded to an underweight at Key Bank. 250 is the target. Why? They see slowing iPhone builds with price increases, weak US upgrades, and changing device subsidy models. Two, 2027 expectations that likely need to move lower for the Mac, the iPad, and wearables. Three, as unit growth likely slows, so will the growth in Apple's user base, likely pressuring services. >> Those are big words. So for for each of those three reasons to be correct, I think you would have to see a significant deterioration in global economic conditions because the way the economy is set up right now, I don't see the demand for Apple's products waning in any regard. So I disagree with that. I think they've left off the ability for this company to deliver a tangible AI product in the hands of consumer which I think ultimately this company will do. I said to you yesterday and I want to build upon this a little bit. I said I wouldn't I wouldn't be buying more here. I've been aggressively buying it all the way up. From a momentum standpoint, you had a stock that very quickly from June 8th down to the end of June fell $45 and then recovered over the next two weeks and went up $50. It is somewhat exhausted. The next leg should be a sideways consolidation phase before it breaks out once again towards 3. >> You left one important thing out. >> What would that be? >> Valuation. >> Oh, >> 35 times. >> Okay. is what Key Bank says for Josh. If any of those things happen, which they wrote about 35 times, it's too expensive for that to occur. That's been the challenge with this name for those who look at it and look at the growth levels and say 35 times for this. >> Okay. What do you think? >> It's not going to matter. They're going to they're going to launch they're going to launch eight new phones in the next 5 years. Um, they've got, in my opinion, the most powerful lock on the global consumer of any publicly traded company anywhere. And this is going to be the platform that serves as the consumer use gateway for all of AI. the profitability from that activity, the services revenue, the increase in consumer lockin, and their ability to actually make more money with higher phone prices, which is what the Morgan Stanley analyst just said. Um, so unfortunately, the world that we live in, companies raise prices. We assume it's to offset inflation. Maybe that inflation subsides somewhat in some of the components or some of the materials. And you know what the the companies do? they don't drop the price back down to where it was, which ends up becoming um the company's take and pure uh earnings growth, pure revenue growth even. So that's exactly how it'll play out here. I don't think that uh the analysts really thought through what's going to happen to numbers as a result of these price increases. The analyst is more worried about how elastic or inelastic the demand might be. Apple has shown repeatedly um the the elasticity of the iPhone universe is actually uh is actually something that we've never seen in consumer electronics really until Apple and I think that'll continue to be the case. >> Real quick, >> real quickly, you know who else doesn't agree with this? The Russell 1000 value index. It's not It added 400 basis points of Apple in the latest rebalancing. >> Well, the stock I told you it's been on the run. Yeah, exactly. All right, finals are next. Josh, what's your final trade? Uh JP Morgan still the best. >> Si um >> Morgan Stanley given what you saw today I think the momentum continues. >> All right 3% gainer there the humble not humiliated Brian Bellski. >> Thank you Invesco. Another financial shocker to $13 billion owner of the cubes. >> Okay Joe T. >> Nvidia >> I love the Jot. >> Yes Nvidia. We bought some last week. I bought some last week. I think you buy more right here. >> Okay. I'll see you at 3:00 on Closing Bel. >> All right, so this is part one of the technical analysis of the stocks and ETFs that they just discussed on the halftime report today, Tuesday, July 14th. We'll be showing you a second clip from closing bell and then that will follow up with more technical analysis right after. So stick around for that. Let's get started here with Apple APL ticker symbol. What happened today? Well, as you can see, price stalled once again at that 31740 level. We've been talking about this for a little while now because it's been hitting that level now for about approximately six, seven days now and has been unsuccessful in breaking through that level. You can see very very low volume today. The ADX, which is the repres basically represents momentum, that's still declining. And uh on a positive note, that's the weekly chart you're looking at right there. Here's the daily. So yesterday we talked about the shooting star type candle and that's a typically a reversal candle. I mentioned that and so I'll just show you guys what that looks like very quickly here. It's this candle right here. So after price moves up, you get a candle with a long wick and a small little red body and that's called a shooting star. So that's bearish. It's a single candle pattern and that is what we experienced yesterday. And as you can see price pulled back today on Apple down.77%. So, these resistance levels are really important. Um, it's derived by taking the prior high. It's one of these candles here that reached the 31740, the highest level. And so, we're still stuck right under that. Why is this important? Because in order to get confirmation that this thing is a true, you know, there's going to be a continuation uh to the upside, we need to break above this really important prior high. Once we do, we'll be experiencing um what's called all-time highs. All right? So right now Apple is still under that level and so we'll see what happens. Let's take a look at JP Morgan. Interestingly enough J we talked about this symmetrical triangle yesterday. I said guys we have to wait for price to break above the triangle but it's not just breaking above the the cam. I'm sorry the uh pattern the symmetrical p uh pattern uh right here we do need to see the price close above either above or below. In this case price gap down in the morning. Okay, giving us a false breakout because throughout the day JP Morgan moved up 2.54% and actually closed above the triangle. I think tomorrow there's a higher likelihood now that we will see a continuation to the upside. Now, one thing I will mention though is that it did in fact stall also at another prior high. You can see that one right there right at that level. In fact, let me just make sure. Let's let's find out what that dollar value is. It's 34345. Let's go ahead and throw that in the on there. So 34345 and we're just under it at 240. I'm sorry, 34289. So, it does need to still break through that level as well. Uh on the weekly chart, JP Morgan is still looking pretty strong. I like what I'm seeing overall. Crowd Strike. Okay, so this is interesting. This is the weekly chart. Still looking bullish. Daily chart, uh we closed above 20950. So, the price closed at 21073 at the end of the day. Um, and right now I'm recording this video at 6:16 PM. So, Crowd Strike did in fact move up 12.14%. And it broke through that level. I think there's a higher likelihood we'll see a continuation tomorrow. But the fact that it didn't break concisively and above that 20950 was very, very close to that resistance level leads me to be slightly skeptical. I want to see a little bit more tomorrow. DD Dog, Data Dog, uh, one of the stocks that, uh, one of the guests brought up. I can't remember who it was, but basically this one here is under the 27870. It was Joe Tteranova. Just came to me. Um, so as you can see here, we're still under this high here of 27870. Okay, that level. And you can see the consolidation that's taking place. That's when price is moving sideways. And we need to break through that box right there. get above that 27870 and then I think we've got something there with DDOG. Weekly chart looks very bullish overall. Now you'll notice that these stocks here do have blue flags. What that means is that they pass the test of this indicator, the Ichimoku indicator. It's when price is above the moving averages above the Ichimoku cloud on both the weekly and the daily chart. And that's really important because if you have both of those time frames confirming the uptrend and the the continued strength, then you have a higher probability trade on your hands there. Snowflake. Now, this one too has the blue flag. It's because price is above the moving averages, but it's still under this 28499 level. When you're that close to a level of resistance, it's best to just hold on, wait, sit on your hands, wait for it to break through, give us that confirmation because a lot of times price will stall and maybe even pull back after reaching that level. You can see the prior high right there. So, that's really important, guys. Let's let's watch that uh level there at the 2849 is what it is. Okay, let's look at Nvidia next. Nvidia, we'll start off with the weekly chart on the still under this trend line that you see right here, but it looks like it might actually close above the 9 period this week. We have to wait until Friday. Okay, we're not quite there yet on the weekly. Here's the daily chart. It's been showing some strength ever since it came down here after this series of lower highs, lower lows and found support at the 200 day moving average. And you can see how price found that support right there on that dotted yellow line. Now it's re-entering the cloud. That's a bullish sign. Um, it looks like the faster moving average is about to cross above the slower one. Hasn't happened yet. We also uh have a a diagonal trend line from that high and that high there. Still in a downward channel. All right. So, if you look closely, I'll just throw on one more line here. In fact, I'll do I'll do this. I'll just uh create a parallel line. We'll throw that at the bottom there. And you can see that that's a series of lower highs, lower lows still for Nvidia. IVZ, Invesco is also reached that 2961. Here's a perfect example of what I was just talking about. Price comes up to a level. All right. In fact, um, let me switch it to a weekly chart because it's based on this level here going all the way back to January 23rd, 2026. This is in financial services sector. You can see how price came to it here. was unsuccessful in breaking and closing above on the weekly. Same thing here and here. We're still under 2961. We're at 2873. Here's the daily chart. You can see that resistance is very strong. I'd hold off on adding any new positions here at this time. All right, let's look at Travelers. Uh this was one of the Josh Brown picks. This one here has had a nice run here, but as you can see here today, it was down 1.35. It closed under the 9 period. Of course, there might be some profit taking that's taking place here. Why? Because next earnings are coming out in just three days, July 17th. So, that's, you know, can be a very crucial time as you'll see in a few moments when we look at IBM, what happened to IBM. So, TRV, I'd be very careful with this one at this point. Uh, weekly chart is pulling back. You can see the reversal candle that we had last week. It seems to be pulling back slightly and there might be some profit taking that's taking place prior to the earnings. Adobe is still in a decline. It's under the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. It's under the Ichimoko on the weekly. It's a stock I would not be adding to my portfolio as long as it remains in this embedded decline. And that's what it is essentially because as long as the the momentum is to the downside, you really don't know exactly when this is going to draw is going to start to uh break and change until we get we see some evidence. And the evidence would be breaking through some trend lines, breaking above these moving averages here, okay? Breaking above the cloud, breaking above that 200. It's a lot there's a lot of resistance above Adobee is not something I'll be interested in. Cityroup on the other hand very strong uptrend as you can see but these last I don't know four weeks now we've been declining uh today was down 5.27% 57%. Let's look at the daily chart. We had a negative crossover today. High volume. ADX is moving up. It's not looking particularly bullish here anymore. On the daily chart, it's looking a little bit more bearish. Could it be a short-lived pullback? 100%. We had one over here and then we saw price recover, get back above those moving averages as you can see right there. And then it led to a nice move. In fact, that prior move right there was approximately a 13 and a half percent move in just a short period of time, like in around 17 days or so. Uh, CRM is still under the cloud, so no on that one. DAL is under the moving averages currently. It's down 77% today. Here's the weekly chart. Still holding up on the weekly, so that's important. IBM, my goodness, look what happened to IBM. 20 down 25.2. This is a weekly chart. And so what happened? Why did IBM drop? The stock plummeted over the 25 over 25% 25.2% today. Imagine a company's value dropping by a quarter percent in just one day. That's what can happen. All right. after they issued a disappointing preliminary Q2 earnings warning, admitting that the company missed expectations because corporate clients abruptly redirected their IT budgets away from IBM software and mainframes to buy scarce data center hardware and storage elsewhere. So that's interesting that uh you know that that occurred. Now did we have any warning signals that this might occur? Well, we can look at the price action and if you look at the prior week, the week ending July 10th, this candle is a shooting star. We talked about how that's a reversal candle. So, the people in the no were certainly exiting their positions, right? In fact, you know, you can see it was all selling happening last week. You look at the daily chart and here we have that last. So, it was it looks like Tuesday of July 7th was the last we had a reversal candle, the dogee, right? We've talked about that candle before. That's a reversal candle and since then it's dropped approximately 28.8%. So that's interesting. Um IGV is uh the software index fund ETF. So this one here is just kind of no man's land right now. It's in between the the uh 200 day and the 26 period. It's um inside the cloud on the daily chart. If you look at the weekly chart, we're still into the cloud. I would not be interested in this right now. Service Now is also under the cloud and under 200. So, no on that one. SMH is the semiconductor ETF. It's still inside this box. I'm going to go ahead and extend it a little bit further out so you can see like we're we're basically just kind of stagnant in this range here for a little bit. There's the daily chart. Okay. So, you you really want to um wait for some some type of uh changes to take place. What am I talking about? faster moving average crossing above this lower one. That would be a first step. Maybe the lagging line here, the white line, which is currently under price, that's also bearish. So, if you're unfamiliar with this these moving averages, check out the Ichimoku uh I do have a uh tutorial on my on my channel. So, look that up. You can do a search on my channel, YouTube channel to find the Ichimoku tutorial. I also talk about it. I talked about it yesterday as well. um the the elements of Ichimoku WFC Wells Fargo and Company is a reversal candle here. It's un it's basically under the nine period. It's not looking pretty on the daily chart. Um we just crossed back under the nine period. Let's take a look at the weekly. We're inside the cloud. So, it kind of makes sense. Uh a lot of times when price reaches the top of the cloud, it will find resistance. And that's exactly what's happening here day after day. I'm sorry. Week after week, we're looking at a weekly chart here. All right. So, now we we went through 17 stocks and ETFs very quickly. We're going to go through a whole bunch more in a few. We're going to take a look at the indices and gold and silver and Bitcoin, Ethereum, all these other things and and maybe some more stocks that they discuss on closing bells. So, stay tuned for that. Let's continue. >> Over. The president has declared that as such, but he also has said that we're not quite returning to a hot war, back to active war. He was asked yesterday uh whether this is just the new normal for the American people that the US was going to continue bombing Iran, that we continue to see fire back and forth. He sort of downplayed that. He said, "Listen, we've only been there for four months." And again, he compared it to previous wars that went on for years. So, they're downplaying this, but absolutely, we're in this new normal for now where we're at over a week now or just about a week of strikes exchanged almost every night. >> Is there Megan? I I don't I hate to put you on the spot. I've been reporting this for three months with my sources. I spoke with somebody in the Middle East this morning. Um, is it clear who's in charge of Iran right now? Do do we know? Does the White House know? Cuz my sources have told me the people that we are negotiating with may not be the people that are firing rockets at oil tankers that there is almost I don't want to say civil war inside of Iran that's too strong, but there are factions vying for power. And I'd love to know if it's clear at the White House who exactly is running that nation right now. >> That continues to be a problem for the White House. and we've heard them discuss this publicly that there are factions inside of Iran. There's the IRGC, there's the Ayatollah, there's the foreign minister and the parliamentary speaker that had been leading negotiations at least through the intermediaries with the US. So, we do hear that often from the president. He's now had very critical language of the Iranian leadership for more than a week now. After theou was first signed, he said he was calling them good people. He said while there hadn't quite been regime change, we were dealing with more reasonable people inside Iran. All of that began to shift just over a week ago when he was at NATO. We we've now throughout the last week or so heard him calling them scum and fleas bags at different times and he was asked last week what led to that shift in tone. The president saying it's that he got to know these people. So, we don't know exactly who is most often leading the discussions, but you're absolutely right that they are divided and the US administration has been very frustrated by that because it makes it more difficult to figure out who's making these >> and the IRGC leaders in southern Iran are the ones that are firing the rockets at the ships. And the the Iranian president, by the way, and there is a president of Iran doesn't have a lot of real power, but there is Pesky. He actually said like sort of kudos to our southern brothers for for always standing for liberty or something like this indicating there are people operating on their own inside of Iran. Megan Cassella, thank you very much. >> And Brian, you are right. Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm Scott Wner live from Post9 here at [music] the New York Stock Exchange. This make or breakout begins with the worst day that IBM's ever had as a publicly traded stock ever. It's the reason why the Dow is an underperformer today. We'll talk to shareholder Stephanie Link about that position she [music] has in just a moment. Let's show you the scorecard here with 60 to go in regulation. A lower than expected CPI print sending yields lower, stocks higher. NASDAQ's been the big [music] winner today as chip names have been on the move. Nvidia among them. NASDAQ's good for 1%. Nvidia is good for about four and a third. Elsewhere, Goldman, Bank of America, JP Morgan all hitting new highs today on the back of their earnings. [music] We'll have a closer look at those as well coming up. All right, we're now in the closing bell market zone. Mike Sani in Capital Wealth Planning. Kevin Simpson breaking down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus, Oliver Renick standing by live in Chicago from Sibo Global Markets. Got options action for us. Mackenzie Seagalis following a rare sale call on Apple today. We [music] mentioned that, but Michael, we begin with you. What do you make of this session after that better than expected CPI print? >> Yeah, I mean, I think that's actually been a big source of the support here. The 2-year note yield is finishing pretty close to the morning lows. dropped hard after that benign CPI number and uh the fact that it did hold near those lows even after Worsh was saying things that at least could have been construed as as slightly hawkish think probably a net positive overall though the market has this feel of you know little tolerance for disappointments it's going to be a little stingy with the credit for a lot of these good earnings numbers but on balance those results are so good it's kind of carrying things for now um the software decline on the IBM uh warning shows you that it is this kind of zero sum mentality out there, right? Software sells off and it's like, oh, it's because people are forced buyers of memory products and so we can buy the semis today. So, that's the that's the setup here. Um, you know, the market remains kind of stuck in this churn still very close to the all-time highs. Uh, but I do think also the pullback in healthcare has bruised a lot of folks playing that broadening trade. >> Yeah. What do you got coming up top of the hour? Uh we're going to actually get a little deeper into that IBM number with somebody who's been bullish as Amit Dariani. We're going to see what it means for for that STR, you know, strategy down the road as well as of course implications for software. >> Good stuff. See you in less than five. Mike Santoi, let's go to Chicago options action. Oliver. >> Hey, Scott. I'm monitoring for one potentially big shift in options trading around semiconductors, which is on the margin bullish after weeks of steady put buying and call selling in SMH that began in late May and was persistent despite brief highs last month. Puts still outnumbered calls today, but almost as many puts were sold as bought, while the skew in calls was very much toward buying. It's a small but notable shift in tone that's supported by extremely bullish options flows in Nvidia. Call buying more than tripled put buying today in that stock which is up 10% since we pointed out bullish flows a week ago. And on a separate note, but also important options flows around the financials today looked very bullish with almost three times more calls trading than puts. Scott. >> All right, Oliver, appreciate that as always, Oliver Renick. Max, some caution on Apple after this run it's had. >> Right. So, Apple trading about half a percent lower, Scott. And the street is split on where shares head next after hitting a fresh all-time high on Monday. Key Bank, it is bearish on Apple, downgrading the stock to underweight with a $250 target, arguing the recent strength masks a weaker US consumer. The firm sees carrier subsidies declining and warns that higher prices could pressure sales, slow expansion of Apple's installed base, and pull services growth down to 7% next year. Then you have bulls like Loop Capital raising its target to $350, saying Apple's gaining global share. iPhone 17 demand remains healthy and higher pricing on the Pro models and foldable could push revenue well above consensus. IDC [snorts] data supports that global strength with Q2 iPhone shipments up 15%. Morgan Stanley also reiterating overweight with a $360 price target, arguing iPhone demand has historically been relatively insensitive to price. So $200 hikes to its phones could protect margins and lift earnings rather than derail demand. >> Okay, Mac, thank you. Appreciate that. Mackenzie Sagalis, Kevin Simpson, another owner of IBM, bookending our show today with uh with those investors. What are you doing with the stock today? >> You know, Scott, Steph kicked off the show with a great bullcase for IBM, which was every reason why we bought the stock, why we own the stock. Yesterday, we closed out the day with a 3% position in it. We have a lower allocation today because of the decline. But my concern is that this may take a lot more time for the software problems to really shake out with IBM. I know Arvin Krishna has done an amazing job as a CEO. But it wouldn't surprise me, Scott, if maybe this Friday or sometime next week, you and I are talking about me trimming some more of this position. Not that I don't believe in the long-term thesis of quantum computing because I do. And I think that's where the magic happens for IBM, but I'm not sure how patient I want to be with this. Today was a very disappointing reannouncement and I think it's a bad precursor for what we're going to see with earnings. >> What's it tell you about the broader AI story at this point? >> Well, I think it's really a have and have not story. You and I talked a lot about it last week with respect to the companies that deliver absolutely benefiting and those companies that miss, even if they miss their whisper numbers, they're going to be punished. I didn't expect that to be the case with IBM, but I don't think this is a testament to the broader AI story, nor is it a testament to the broader tech story. I think it's very software specific, and it's it's reminding us of what we heard in February, and maybe this is a validation that that repricing was legit. Not that IBM's going out of business or that it's the end of software, but maybe we've got to rethink about how we price a premium for it because I think going forward companies will be rewarded for proving their revenue stream. And again, if they don't, this is what happens. >> Yeah, worst day ever for that name. Kev, I'll let you run. We'll see you back on the desk soon. Thank you. That's Kevin Simpson. Bell's going to start ringing. Dow Jones Industrial Average clearly held back by IBM or it would probably look like the other majors today. NASDAQ's going to go out about 1%. S&P having a decent day, up about 1/2. Interest rates came down a little bit on that better than expected CPI print. Fed share wars really didn't do anything to upset the market. >> Okay, so in this clip folks, we're going to take a look at Amazon. We're going to look at uh Compass Pathways. Those were two member requests. We'll also take a look at the S&P 500, the Q's, the Dow, Russell 2000 ETF, Euro Stocks 50, Gold, Silver, Oil K, which is the crude oil strategy ETF, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Copper miners. But first, before we look at those charts, let's take a look and see how the market performed. It's currently, let me go ahead and refresh this for a moment. Currently, it is 6:46 p.m. Eastern time, Tuesday, July 14th, as I'm recording this. And you can see how the markets were all up today. Um, the Dow was up the least. It was only up 02%. As you can see right there, we gapped down in the morning. We moved up. We dro dropped again and finally basically had a very very slight gain for the day. The NASDAQ on the other hand, it gapped up in the morning. Um, it started creating lower, I'm sorry, higher lows and uh, it was up.9%. It was up the most. The S&P 500 was up 38. The Russell 2000 was up.35. Not huge moves here. Uh let's take a look at the heat map. That's going to show us the individual stocks within the S&P 500. You can see how the technology stocks were up quite a bit today. Uh Nvidia, for example, was up 4.06. Micron up 4.92. Google was up 1.99. AMD, Intel, Broadcom. Uh but QCOM was actually down 3.2%. Oracle was down 2.74. Microsoft and Apple were both down. IBM had that big drop of 26.21%. And look at the healthcare stocks. They were mostly down and so were consumer defensives. Everything else was kind of mixed for the most part. Let's take a look at the groups. That's going to show us the uh uh individual performance of the sectors. I'm sorry, the the the sector performance for the for the day. Technology up as a group for up 1.86%. Followed by basic materials and communication services. And then healthcare was down the most 1.6. 62 and then consumer defenses were down 1.16 for the one week. Performance energy is up 4% for the week. Technology is only up 2.63%. That's an interesting uh situation, right? And then for the one month performance, we got financials, healthcare, utilities at the top and we have basic materials, consumer defensives, industrials at the bottom. All right. So now let's go ahead and take a look at those charts. And I'm going to go ahead and remove some of these lines just for a moment so we can show you guys what it looks like with just the Ichimoku indicator for a moment. Uh what we're looking for again is for price to be above these moving averages, the 9 period, the 26 period, and the Ichimoku cloud. We want that white line, which is called the lagging line or chu span, to be above the candle 26 periods ago. That one right there. It is. So that's bullish. That's what we want. We want that green line above the red line. Ideally, we want the directional movement index, this other secondary indicator that I like to use to be above the red line. It technically is, but just slightly. So we want that green line above the red line. Positive DI9 above the negative DI9. And we ideally in that scenario, you also want to see the white line moving up when the green line is above the red line like it was here. You can see how it le led to a little move up. Uh the opposite happens when the red line is above the green line and the ADX starts moving up. You can see here if we go straight up from this point how price declined, right? And then once the momentum starts to decline, the ADX that white line starts to move sideways a little bit and then maybe have that sharp drop that can lead to a nice pop in the market. So, a lot of interesting um elements here in these both of these indicators, but they do help us to get a better picture about the strength of the trend. And right now, the spy looks good on the weekly still. Okay, it's still in a b, you know, still in a very bullish uh uptrend. The only thing I would say, as I've mentioned many times, is that we're stuck here for a couple months now in this range. We're just moving sideways. uh we did we had the same thing back here and then we had a decline a short decline and then it recovered. So we'll see what happens with this particular uh consolidation. Uh the cues and by the way let's look let's look at the daily chart on there. Um on the daily chart everything looks good as far as price being above the moving averages and everything. However, the lagging line remember I mentioned earlier the white line there is still under the candle. So it's not going to get the blue flag here. How about the Q's? The QQQ ETF. Same thing. Lagging line is under price. You can see that we've been on this daily chart. We've been kind of declining here and creating almost like a symmetrical uh triangle pattern. So, it's been getting squeezed in. And what that means is there's a higher chance of a breakout at this point because it's getting closer and closer to the apex, right? That's the that's when we get to the end of the triangle. And so, expect some volatility in the next few days here in the cues. It's I can't predict if it's going to be moving to the upside or to the downside. Um, okay. President Trump is going to be coming out on television tonight. He's gonna be um, you know, discussing some things. I'm not exactly sure what you know, you never know what's going to be uh uh talked about, but it can certainly affect the markets tomorrow. So, it will either see a positive move or a decline based a lot of times on the commentary. So, here's the cues. That's the daily. There's the weekly chart. Here's the Dow Jones DIA ETF still moving sideways here. I like what I'm seeing overall though. The Dow is a very strong uptrend. Look at that ADX moving straight up here. Daily chart is still looking good even though it's still holding under that nine period, the green line. Um but overall, we're still in a nice uptrend. Higher highs, higher lows. Russell 2000, same thing. But again, just nothing really major here. We don't have any buy signals. Okay. Um we're we're basically just more of a hold position here on the daily and the weekly chart. Same thing. The VIX dropped a little bit today. So, that's good. It was down 4.55%. That's a that's an important thing. We want to see the volatility coming out of the market. FE the Euro stocks uh today, this is the weekly chart, folks. It's still holding above the moving averages. It still looks pretty bullish on the weekly. However, daily chart, we we we had a negative crossover when the faster moving average, the green line, crosses under the red line. That's not good. and price has been holding under here for five days. So we'll see if it can break through that level or not. Again, a similar type pattern. We got a symmetrical triangle here. We have a lower high. So you can see from this high to that high that's lower. We have a higher low. That creates the symmetrical triangle pattern. The indecision basically, right? GLD. Gold is still in a decline on the daily chart. Lower highs, lower lows. Here's the weekly chart. All right, it's inside the cloud right now. It was up 1.37% today. It gapped up, but you can see we ended up down. So, it gapped up and then the the bears took control towards the end of the day. Here's a three-minute chart. So, there's the gap up and there's the decline that occurred throughout the day. Uh silver, same situation. Gapped up and started declining. It was uh for the day it was up 1.94%. But again, it's uh this is where the Ichimoku cloud shines because it shows us exactly what's happening. Ichimoku stands for at a glance. We can see we're still at least with this particular ETF in a decline. There's not a lot of participation from buyers here. Oil K, we're starting to see a little pop up here once it came down to the 200. All right. And of course with with what's going on in the straight of horror moves, we're going to we may see this um continue to the upside. In fact, uh just today we closed above the 26 period. You can see that just barely, but that's significant. What else did happened recently? Uh the the green line crossed above the red line. So would I be shorting oil here? No. Right. Uh it was up 74%. Here's the weekly chart. You can see the turnup. That's what happening here. It's like almost like a J, right? That's very bullish. So, we'll see if Royal K can continue. Uh, it's not giving us a new buy signal quite yet because it's not we don't have confirmation. We're still under resistance levels, right? But overall, I'm liking what I'm seeing. In fact, if I draw a trend line, let's take a look at that. Let's see where we're at with the trend line right now. I think we just may have broken through that level. Let's get the exact Let's get a more precise trend line here with this with TC2000. So not quite yet. Okay. So just looking at the high there, the high of this candle, we are just under that trend line. Just under. So it's interesting that it stalled right at that level as it closed above 26 period. So we'll see what happens tomorrow. Uh [snorts] Bitcoin up 3.86% today. You know, not a whole lot to say here except for like these last, you know, this last day here, uh, we we closed above the 26 period and the we had a positive crossover with directional movement index. How about the weekly chart? We're still in a embedded decline. And remember, the weekly chart is more important when you're trying to decide whether or not you should consider adding a new position. You need to wait for that weekly chart to give you that the, you know, the thumbs up first. And right now we're still we're still with Bitcoin in a uh embedded decline as I like to call it. Okay, lower highs, lower lows. So it's still still stairstepping its way downwards and not the time to be adding ETH. Okay, may have that's Ethereum, the Ethereum ETF. It may have found its floor at 1464. It did bounce. It did close above the 9 period, but we still have a lot of resistance above. It's not also something I wouldn't be adding. It might be a very shortlived. It'll move up. We need more confirmations. Copper Miners ETF also moved up 5.88%. It's still under that trend line. The lower part of that triangle, symmetrical triangle, it's still above the cloud. So when you look at the weekly chart, overall is the big picture of copper miners is still bullish overall for the weekly. Okay, because we are above the cloud and that's the most important thing. On the daily chart, we are under. So we are getting two conflicting stories here. We're getting two conflicting um charts. One is strong, the other one is not yet. So the the longer term chart is still in effect. Daily chart, not so much. we're breaking down a little. So, what do you do? You just wait it out. You you hold off and do not add new positions here. It just doesn't make sense. All right, let's look at the uh other two stocks. CMPS, Compass Pathways. These are um this was a requested from one of our members. Uh here is the weekly chart. It's above the 9 period still. So, remember what I said just now. Uh how about how important the weekly chart is? This is still in a very strong uptrend on the weekly chart. Okay, very easy to see. We are I'd say I don't know how to It almost looks like a pennant pattern to me, which is bullish. You can see that right there. So, we'll see what happens with with this on the weekly. Let's look at the daily chart. On the daily chart, we have still have a higher high here from the prior one. Higher low here from this low. So right now it's just you know it's it's fighting the the bulls and bears are fighting and the and the faster moving average just crossed under but that also happened here and then price it only took four or five days for it to come back above it. So we'll see what happens overall weekly and daily bullish because price is still holding above the cloud. What about Amazon? It's inside the cloud on the daily chart. So that's indecision that there's neither neither bulls or bears are in control here. Um I mean we could say maybe slightly more bullish because price is above the 200. All right. Um on the daily. Let's look at the weekly chart and we're also above the 200 on the weekly. Much more bullish here for Amazon. What's going on with Amazon on the weekly chart? We're right under that nine periods still one two six weeks in a row. Uh these last three weeks though, it's been edging higher, which is good. Here's a daily chart. You can see that since it reached that low right there, this was a um oh, what's the name of it? Tweezer bottoms, guys. It's a tweezer bottom pattern. You see how this wick is very small? Okay. And so is this one. But they're around the same around the same level. That's called the tweezer bottom. And that's bullish. If we saw the opposite, let's assume that uh this wick here was at the same level as as the prior one. That would be a tweezer top and that would be bearish. But this is bullish. And I'll show you guys the chart real quick so you can see what I'm talking about. All right, let's look under the bullish double candle patterns. And here it is. Tweezer bottom. Again, it doesn't matter whether it's a red candle or green line. It's what they're looking for here, all right, is these little wicks. And we want those to be around the same level. And that's precisely what we have, okay, on the chart down over here. And that happened back on June 25th and June 26th. So we popped the next day after that occurred and we moved 5.34% with Amazon. We have a positive crossover. The Chico span is still under price. The cloud is still bearish, but there's a just a mixture of things happening here. We don't have any conclusive um things happening, but it's it's slightly more bullish than bearish. Uh especially with that directional movement index turning green here. I like that. And it looks like the ADX is also edging up slightly. So that's also positive. All right. So, I guess folks, um, that is going to do it for this video. If you want to, um, access this cheat sheet here. You can get it on my Twitter page. I'll show you guys how to get it. Just go to bluecloud at bluecloud trader onx.com. That's my handle. And once you're on there, select highlights. Under highlights, scroll down until you see a candle pattern reference sheet. and this stock patterns cheat sheet. You can use those will help you with your trading. Um, couple more things if you guys like the um videos that I produce here. I also do member only videos. You may want to consider becoming a member so you can access these videos. How do you do that? Well, you just hit the join button which is right next to the subscribe button. You click on it. You'll see three tiers. You do need to select BlueCloud Trader middle tier at a minimum to get that those member only videos. If you want to get daily trade updates on my trades, become a BlueCloud legend. Okay? 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