Is SoFi About to Prove the Market Wrong?

Ladies and gentlemen, it's that time of the year again. It happens four times a year where investors end up seeing earning season. This is where we end up getting to know whether the companies that we're actually betting on are headed in the right direction. It started off strong with the big bank showing off really incredible numbers, much higher than Wall Street expectations. The only problem with that, and as we jump into it, is that it's not really focused on consumer banking sides, which is really where SoFi is focused on. What we're really seeing is strong numbers from advisory, investment banking, and wealth management. Some of this stuff does bleed over, like the amount of money that the big banks made from big IPOs like SpaceX. Obviously, SoFi played a big part in Surus's IPO and SpaceX giving early shares to investors. That's going to lead to a lot of overall new SoFi invest accounts. But let's talk about my exact breakdown and predictions for SoFi earnings. First up, I'm expecting 1.1 million new SoFi members, which is roughly a 7.5% increase quarter-over-arter or 34.5% increase year-over-year. This is roughly in line with the same growth rate that we've been holding up over the past four quarters. Remember, quarter over-arter is comparing to Q1 of 2026, while year-over-year is comparing to this column here of Q2 of 2025. For products, I'm expecting two million new overall products where I've broken down a new section in my predictions. I'm now looking at both total products per member and new products per member as there was quite the breakout in the last two quarters showing a much higher amount of new products per member than what we've seen in the past. As you can see, we ended up passing total products per user at 1.5 times. But whenever you look at that on the last quarter, the new amount of products per member actually came in at 1.8 almost 1.9 products. I'll talk about why that was, but it really had to do with a new way that they count SoFi Invest members and that's going to be going forward. So I expect a new amount of new members that come on for SoFi Invest and that's why I expect 1.9 members. Let's talk about that here in a second. Galileo accounts I believe is going to reacelerate now that we're no longer actually on Galo. It's going to be the SoFi technology solutions and they're going to be going at a new sort of sales and marketing strategy for this and hopefully that actually picks up on new members. But like we've seen in the past, this hasn't always been a success, right? We've ended up seeing large customers like Chime or Current end up dropping off the platform. Now for total revenue, we're almost at 1.2 billion, but sitting at roughly 1.18 million in total revenue. Wall Street is currently expecting about $1.11 billion where I'm expecting about 1.18. So roughly 70 million more than what they're expecting. This breaks down to about $556 million in financial services revenue. Now I could be a little bit high on this. I'm kind of going back to the old numbers that we've seen, but because of the SoFi Invest changes, that's why we ended up seeing a decrease. The reason for my belief on them coming back on this is because of the mix of products should be shifting back to normal. more SoFi credit accounts, the SoFi Space X announcement, which I believe is going to bring them even more revenue, and the newest edition of SoFi crypto. So, all of those things, I think that there will be a return back to normal. But if there's something where I'm being a little bit too optimistic, it's this, which is the revenue per financial services product might come in somewhere as much as $24, $25, which I might be a little bit over the top there. On the other hand, I'll make up for it a lot on the lending side where I'm definitely being way more conservative at only $200 per product where last quarter we did somewhere along the lines of $227. Regardless, I'm being very conservative at roughly $66 million in total lending revenue and about $83 million for technology services revenue, which would be an increase from last quarter, but obviously a large decrease year-over-year. And for the corporate revenue side, which is actually a negative for them, I'm at 65 million, which is also very high, but it's usually high in the middle parts of the year. So Q2, Q3 are likely higher, as you can see in this previous year, and then falling back down to that sort of 50 to 45 million. Whether or not that that's a trend that's going to continue to occur where we end up lowering those expenses, maybe. But right now, I'm being conservative at -65 million. Potentially, that's at 60 million or 55 million. But that would all be to the upside. As long as I'm finding these numbers that while being a little bit more conservative, I'm super happy with that. Now, for contribution margin, which we're not going to focus on too much, it's not as important as the adjusted EVA margin or essentially the net income margin that flows down after that. The contribution margin is essentially their gross margin. So, meaning how much revenue that they're bringing in minus their directly attributable expenses. So, we're not talking about their HR departments or anything like this that also occur in their total expenses. What we're looking for is how much does it actually cost to serve a SoFi money member, bringing on that customer, what it costs to maintain them, and then all the people that actually attribute directly to those types of accounts. What I'm seeing here is a return back on financial services back to that mid50s range. And I think that that will occur although there was a change in the way that they look at SoFi invest accounts, it's not actually going to be more expensive for them to do so. So that shouldn't change the overall margin. That doesn't change their amount of contribution expenses. So, what I believe here is that we're going to return back to something around 50%. Lending contribution, not as high as what we saw last quarter, but somewhere in the middle of them getting a little bit better than what they were previously, but also maybe not as high as the very very high amount that we saw last quarter at nearly 60%. So, 57% overall margins and about 30% on technology platform. So, a little bit of return to where we were before. Year-over-year we were at 30%. But not as low as where we were in Q1 whenever Chime dropped off the platform. Now for adjusted IBIDA, I'm looking at roughly $366 million at a 31% IBIDA margin. If you end up looking at their guide here, which I just have a little screenshot, you can see that it says adjusted IBIDA margin of approximately 30% in Q2 of 2026. As a reminder, SoFi loves to sandbag their guidance and they're always looking to beat that going forward. On top of that, we're also going to look at adjusted net income margins as well of approximately 12 to 13%. And adjusted net revenue of approximately 30%. Right now for adjusted net revenue, I'm at roughly 37% and on the IBIDA margins, we're at 31%. So just slightly higher, but the reason for the big beat on adjusted net revenue was the amount of overall activity in markets. There was a ton of activity and companies like Robin Hood and I believe SoFi as well are going to do very well. There was a report from Wells Fargo that said that Consumer was getting much better, that spending was increasing, yet the actual default rates on those loans were actually getting much better. So, a complete triple beat across Consumer for Wells Fargo and many of the big banks. And I believe that's what we're going to see for SoFi. But it just means a lot more to SoFi because it makes up for all of their revenue. If the loans come in better than expected, spending comes in better, overall SoFi Invest users come in much better than expected, but yet the actual default rates on many of those loans is lower. That's going to be a triple beat for SoFi as well. Now, for net income here, we're looking at roughly $177 million at a 15% margin, which is just slightly higher than what SoFi said at that 12 to 13%, mind you, we are looking for that triple beat. and then 13 cents of EPS which SoFi analysts on Wall Street side is currently sitting at about 11 cents. So this would be much higher than what Wall Street investors are expecting. So to help visualize this, this is essentially what I'm looking at. Many more members, a better amount of overall crossby. So we're seeing the most amount of new members on the platform coupled with the improvement on the total amount of new products. The lending revenue is not going to be as high as it was last quarter. There was a major spike up there, but we're going to make up for that with financial services revenue seeing a decent spike. Now, even looking at this, it does look like I'm being a little bit too optimistic here. Maybe we come in somewhere around 535 545 million, but this is just where the numbers ended up taking me based on average revenue per product being much higher than where it was previously. Yes, there's been a little bit of a split up on SoFi Invest accounts, but that's not really where we've seen a lot of new products. Once we start talking about the product breakdown, you'll see a little bit more of what I'm seeing, which is that last quarter we saw no additions to SoFi credit cards, where they actually might end up starting that back up again, considering that consumer health looks pretty good, and that's what the big banks are showing us. As for the new amount of products on SoFi's technology platform, we're going to see that recurring climb back up to hopefully where we were before. It's not going to be a new all-time high, but we're climbing back from the bottom, and that's what we want to see. Now, for adjusted IBA, we've been holding this margin pretty steady for the last little bit, but we are doing this on more revenue than what we've seen previously. So, I'm looking at about 366 million in adjusted IBIDA overall. And then that flows down obviously to net income, which would be roughly around a new all-time high, 177 million at a 15% margin, which is not the highest margin we've ever seen. The highest we've ever seen is 17.1% where in Q4 we saw $173 million. That was our highest. And then in the last little bit we've continued to do well but not spiking up. Now this brings me on to the product side because if we know the types of products that are coming onto the platform, we can very easily see how much revenue we're going to see because we know the average amount of revenue that each product brings us. That's where we end up looking at the breakdowns between lending products, financial service products, and then flowing down into what we end up seeing for personal loans. So for personal loans, I'm expecting roughly about 167,000 new personal loans at about 50,000 per origination or roughly about 8.3 billion of new originations. Seems very high to where we've seen previously. But we also have to remember that SoFi has a ton of capital. Their tangible book value has continued to climb up and their cash stack is very able to continue to give out more and more loans. On top of that, we have home loans coming in almost exactly what I expected last quarter. I don't expect any sort of home loan surge, but SoFi has been doing well in these markets. So, just doing exactly what we did last quarter is still going to gain us an overall market share. At $225,000 per loan, we're looking at roughly 1.2 two almost $1.17 billion in total home loan originations. To help visualize this on the personal loan side, we're going to see once again a continuous increase in overall personal loans. It's always going to be a brand new hype because the last products don't flow off. There can't be churn of a product that they've already signed on. But the growth rate is still very healthy. We're not expecting any sort of large surge, but I wasn't expecting a surge last quarter either and then we saw one. So there's always a potential for management to change their direction and go in a different direction that we didn't expect previously. Same thing with home loans. Although we did see a major tick up and we're still expecting a really great growth rate, we just haven't seen the rate cuts or the pickup in home sales that we need in order for SoFi to really see all-time highs in growth rates here. Going to the next product, student loans. What we end up seeing is a very big amount of new student loans at about a 75,000 average, which sort of puts us in the middle of where we've seen the originations in previous quarters. That puts us at about 2.2 almost $2.3 billion of total originations. And for SoFi money accounts, this is like their checking accounts. We're looking at an all-time high record-breaking 543,000 new accounts, which make up for about 26% of all of their total new products signed. At about $5,200 worth of deposits per account, we would look at a deposit base that is now passing over $40.5 billion, which puts us in the top echelons of like some of the biggest banks. Not quite JP Morgan size, but really good for a fintech that's turned into a bank over time. On top of that though, whenever we actually visualize these accounts, you can see a really big tick up in growth rate over the time since Q1 of 2022 for student loans. And then for SoFi money, if you look back, obviously there's been a massive acceleration, but even this is still holding up this great sort of mid7% quarter overquarter growth rates. And I believe that we're going to continue to do that if SoFi's new members can continue to come on. That's really what they call the sort of the top offunnel product. This is what almost every single customer that comes on to SoFi ends up getting. So SoFi money account should track pretty well with new members. But on top of that, we have some of the greatest cross-selling products that SoFi has, which number one obviously is SoFi Invest. SoFi Invest also going to see roughly 500,000 new accounts. Whenever you compare that year-over-year, you're looking at like 168,000. Now remember, from Q4 to Q1, we went from like 200,000 new accounts to adding over 428,000 new accounts. This was actually on the way that they described these accounts. And what we ended up seeing is that now they're starting to break down accounts into like four separate ways instead of two. Now it's looking at IRA self-directed accounts, robo advisory accounts. There's a couple other ones that they end up breaking it down by, but it's just a change in the way that they look at those overall accounts. In Q2, there's either two directions that this goes. One is that this was a boost in 400,000 new accounts based on previous quarters. However, they did say that it was a nominal amount of counts that they had to adjust and that what I believe is going to happen is that we're going to see a huge surge based on the total amount of demand in Q2 for overall investments. SoFi Invest on Google Trends is doing extremely well and a lot of that has to do with SpaceX IPO and Cerebrus IPO which saw a ton of traction go towards SoFi as being one of the very few companies that actually offered it to retail investors. And then for credit cards, you can see we only added like 462 accounts last quarter after growing from like 47,000 43,000. I don't know where to place this because I did not expect them to just stop offering credit cards in the next quarter. So I don't know if this is also going to be similarly close to zero or going right back to 40,000. So I placed it somewhere in the middle at 20,000 and hopefully it does start to see a climb back. If you end up looking at what JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are doing is they're saying that spending is doing very well and consumer defaulting is not really as high as what they expected is much better than expected. So if SoFi is similar then I believe that they're also going to go back to investing in credit cards. Regardless big tick up in SoFi invest obviously and then on top of that credit cards hopefully we start to see that growth reacelerate. Fingers crossed on that one. Next and we'll just finish this out. referred loans back about 14,000 new referred loans. This is their partnership with Pagaya. So, this is giving out loans to other institutions because SoFi just says, "Hey, you know what? They don't fall under our box. We can't sell them through our loan platform business. We'll give them to another company that wants them and get paid on every single one of those accounts." That's going to do well. Not a big change either way, but still important to track. So, Relay, this is their budgeting tool. Very similar to Mint or some of those other tools as well. This is obviously based on the total amount of accounts roughly 8 million or even last quarter 7.3 million. It's roughly makes up for the other top ofunnel account other than SoFi money. So 50% of people end up taking out this account. If we end up seeing 1.1 million total accounts, the amount of new accounts that are going to come on roughly about 50%, but I actually think that this is going to continue to grow. This would roughly be almost an all-time high aside from Q4 at 650,000 648,000 what I'm expecting for SoFi Relay. The greatest part about this product is not that it's a direct revenue driver, but that this tells them so much about whether or not somebody could do well consolidating their credit card debt into a personal loan, whether they need a home loan, whether they could do well with SoFi Invest or some of these other tools. And so relay ends up leading to the other products doing very well. SoFi at work is going to grow by about 12,500 new accounts just because this is essentially a student loan section of their company. This has expanded into other products like for example SoFi money, SoFi invest and all of these things. But for the main part and why customers use them is for the student loan side. I think that'll be similar to last quarter. But then lastly, we also have crypto crypto. The first quarter that SoFi ended up having this out for the full quarter. We ended up seeing 176,000 new accounts. I don't think it'll be that strong this quarter. That's sort of like an initial bump. I might even be a little bit high at 146,000. However, there was a lot of sales and marketing put towards this product. And so, we could actually see almost a paid for bump in overall accounts in Q2. So, I'm imagining roughly a 61% quarter-over-arter increase, but not as high as what we saw last quarter. to help visualize this. So at work, the growth rate is not spiking but hopefully still doing well at roughly 7% quarter over quarter. So relay also doing well roughly 9%. Crypto we don't have a lot of information on. This is a very very new product for SoFi and SoFi referred loans doing well but obviously the growth rate back whenever it first launched makes everything else look a little bit different but still doing well and climbing. Essentially, whenever I look at SoFi's products and what has been happening over the past many years is that they've just been growing market share in every single category and continuing to grow as a business. There's been a lot of speculation on the stock price overall, but if SoFi can continue to put up roughly 30% revenue growth and aiming towards around 40% EPS growth for the next 3 years, this is going to be a great compounder that's looking at roughly a price to earnings growth ratio or PEG ratio of around6 times. Anything under one is a really good sign and 6 is an extremely cheap offering. Whether or not they can actually beat on their guidance depends on that execution, but considering the fact that SoFi has never let us down in a single quarter, I believe that they're going to get there and maybe even exceed it. So hopefully my numbers are correct. I'd be very happy with these. I think certain areas I'm going to be a little bit too bullish and other areas I'm not going to be bullish enough. But that's the difference between the information that I have versus the information that obviously Insiders and Nod has, right? without having the direct numbers. All we're doing is guessing. This is my best guess. But ladies and gentlemen, good luck to you guys on earnings day. That'll be July 29th at 6:55 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, where I'll be live right here on this channel to listen to Anthony Notto, Chris Le Point, and the rest of the management team go through their numbers and wishing and praying that they end up putting out good results. 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