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'IT WILL ALWAYS BE LUMPY': The reality Wall Street doesn't want to hear

'IT WILL ALWAYS BE LUMPY': The reality Wall Street doesn't want to hear

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Entry is the asset's closing price on the publication date. Current is the last close on record.

  1. 01 GOOGL NASDAQ BUY +0.93%
    Entry $354.46 16 Jul 2026
    Current $357.75 06 Aug 2026
    Result +$3.29

    WE LIKE THAT.

    Context IF I LOOK AT WHAT'S GOING ON, GOOGLE, CLOUD, AMAZON SERVICES, THESE COMPANIES ARE COMPUTE CONSTRAINTS OF THEIR INCREASING SPENT IN CROWD BUSINESSES BECAUSE THEY SEE STRONG RETURNS AS OWNERS IN THE STOCK, WE LIKE THAT.

  2. 02 AMZN NASDAQ BUY +10.50%
    Entry $249.89 16 Jul 2026
    Current $276.14 07 Aug 2026
    Result +$26.25

    WE LIKE THAT.

    Context IF I LOOK AT WHAT'S GOING ON, GOOGLE, CLOUD, AMAZON SERVICES, THESE COMPANIES ARE COMPUTE CONSTRAINTS OF THEIR INCREASING SPENT IN CROWD BUSINESSES BECAUSE THEY SEE STRONG RETURNS AS OWNERS IN THE STOCK, WE LIKE THAT.

  3. 03 AAPL NASDAQ BUY -6.26%
    Entry $333.26 16 Jul 2026
    Current $312.41 06 Aug 2026
    Result −$20.85

    VERY MUCH IN PLACE AND WILL ALWAYS BE LUMPY BUT LOOK AT THEE PACE OF INNOVATION, NVIDIA, AND THE NEW ARCHITECTURE WILL BE RAMPING THE NEW PLATFORM AND MICROSOFT COMPUTE CONSTRAINTS SO AS LONG AS THE COMPANIES NAVIGATE NEAR-TERM AS THEY HAVE TO WHILE INVESTING LONG-TERM, I THINK IT CAN NEW TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHAREHOLDER VALUEUE FROM HERE.

    Context THIRTY SECONDS SO WHETHER IT'S APPLE, MIMICROSOFT, NVIDIA, GOOGLE, AMAZON, YOU STILL FEEL STRONG ABOUT THE VALUE PROPOSITION YOU PINPOINTED LONG BEFORE ANYONE ON THE STREET YEARS AGO STILL IN PLACE.

  4. 04 MSFT NASDAQ BUY +25.40%
    Entry $401.10 16 Jul 2026
    Current $502.97 07 Aug 2026
    Result +$101.87

    VERY MUCH IN PLACE AND WILL ALWAYS BE LUMPY BUT LOOK AT THEE PACE OF INNOVATION, NVIDIA, AND THE NEW ARCHITECTURE WILL BE RAMPING THE NEW PLATFORM AND MICROSOFT COMPUTE CONSTRAINTS SO AS LONG AS THE COMPANIES NAVIGATE NEAR-TERM AS THEY HAVE TO WHILE INVESTING LONG-TERM, I THINK IT CAN NEW TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHAREHOLDER VALUEUE FROM HERE.

    Context THIRTY SECONDS SO WHETHER IT'S APPLE, MIMICROSOFT, NVIDIA, GOOGLE, AMAZON, YOU STILL FEEL STRONG ABOUT THE VALUE PROPOSITION YOU PINPOINTED LONG BEFORE ANYONE ON THE STREET YEARS AGO STILL IN PLACE.

  5. 05 NVDA NASDAQ BUY +7.90%
    Entry $207.40 16 Jul 2026
    Current $223.78 07 Aug 2026
    Result +$16.38

    VERY MUCH IN PLACE AND WILL ALWAYS BE LUMPY BUT LOOK AT THEE PACE OF INNOVATION, NVIDIA, AND THE NEW ARCHITECTURE WILL BE RAMPING THE NEW PLATFORM AND MICROSOFT COMPUTE CONSTRAINTS SO AS LONG AS THE COMPANIES NAVIGATE NEAR-TERM AS THEY HAVE TO WHILE INVESTING LONG-TERM, I THINK IT CAN NEW TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHAREHOLDER VALUEUE FROM HERE.

    Context THIRTY SECONDS SO WHETHER IT'S APPLE, MIMICROSOFT, NVIDIA, GOOGLE, AMAZON, YOU STILL FEEL STRONG ABOUT THE VALUE PROPOSITION YOU PINPOINTED LONG BEFORE ANYONE ON THE STREET YEARS AGO STILL IN PLACE.

  6. 06 GOOGL NASDAQ BUY +0.93%
    Entry $354.46 16 Jul 2026
    Current $357.75 06 Aug 2026
    Result +$3.29

    VERY MUCH IN PLACE AND WILL ALWAYS BE LUMPY BUT LOOK AT THEE PACE OF INNOVATION, NVIDIA, AND THE NEW ARCHITECTURE WILL BE RAMPING THE NEW PLATFORM AND MICROSOFT COMPUTE CONSTRAINTS SO AS LONG AS THE COMPANIES NAVIGATE NEAR-TERM AS THEY HAVE TO WHILE INVESTING LONG-TERM, I THINK IT CAN NEW TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHAREHOLDER VALUEUE FROM HERE.

    Context THIRTY SECONDS SO WHETHER IT'S APPLE, MIMICROSOFT, NVIDIA, GOOGLE, AMAZON, YOU STILL FEEL STRONG ABOUT THE VALUE PROPOSITION YOU PINPOINTED LONG BEFORE ANYONE ON THE STREET YEARS AGO STILL IN PLACE.

  7. 07 AMZN NASDAQ BUY +10.50%
    Entry $249.89 16 Jul 2026
    Current $276.14 07 Aug 2026
    Result +$26.25

    VERY MUCH IN PLACE AND WILL ALWAYS BE LUMPY BUT LOOK AT THEE PACE OF INNOVATION, NVIDIA, AND THE NEW ARCHITECTURE WILL BE RAMPING THE NEW PLATFORM AND MICROSOFT COMPUTE CONSTRAINTS SO AS LONG AS THE COMPANIES NAVIGATE NEAR-TERM AS THEY HAVE TO WHILE INVESTING LONG-TERM, I THINK IT CAN NEW TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHAREHOLDER VALUEUE FROM HERE.

    Context THIRTY SECONDS SO WHETHER IT'S APPLE, MIMICROSOFT, NVIDIA, GOOGLE, AMAZON, YOU STILL FEEL STRONG ABOUT THE VALUE PROPOSITION YOU PINPOINTED LONG BEFORE ANYONE ON THE STREET YEARS AGO STILL IN PLACE.

Full Transcript
♪ ARE RIGHT, MAG SEVEN TWO LIKE AND BAG AND IF YOU OWNED IT, YOU ARE LOOKING RIDICULOUS TO ALL OF A SUDDEN, MAYBE THEIR FAVORITE AGAIN. MY NEXT GUEST HAS BEEN BULLISH FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS, SENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST, WE HAVE ON THE SCREEN EXPOSURE FROM HEDGE FUNDS WHICH BROUGHT IS A BIT OF THIS, A LOT OF FOLKS HAVE GROWN IN THE TOWEL ON MAY 7, YOU SURPRISED THAT COMES OUT HOW MANY COMPANIES ARE? SOME HAVE FAITH IN THEM. >> WE SEE AS UP NEXT GOES UP, FREE CASH FLOW NEAR-TERM WERE COMING DOWN AND THAT'S PRESSURED THE STOCKS SO IF I LOOK AT WHAT'S GOING ON, GOOGLE, CLOUD, AMAZON SERVICES, THESE COMPANIES ARE COMPUTE CONSTRAINTS OF THEIR INCREASING SPENT IN CROWD BUSINESSES BECAUSE THEY SEE STRONG RETURNS AS OWNERS IN THE STOCK, WE LIKE THAT. >> WHEN THESE COMPANIES TALK ABOUT ACCESS, COMPUTE LIKE THE STORY LAST WEEK FOR SPACEX, MARK ZUCKERBERG THINKING, ACCESS, COMPUTER AT THE SAME TIME. >> I THINK IT WILL DEPEND AND WE LOOK AT THESE COMPANIES ONE BY ONE, WE ARE SELECTIVE AS YOU KNOW, SO IN THE CASE OF GOOGLE, FOR EXAMPLE, COMPUTE CONSTRAINTS FOR INTERNAL WORKLOADS BUT THEY ARE SELLING COMPUTE TO THIRD PARTIES, SETTING UP CLOUD ELSEWHERE SO YOU WANT TO BALANCE IT. WHAT META IS DOING IS THEY HAVE A STRONG CORE BUSINESS CONSIDERING DOING MORE IN BUILDING A CLOUD BUSINESS AND WE WILL HAVE TO SEE BUT THEY WANT THE OPTION. >> YOU MENTIONED FREE CASH FLOW A LOT OF CHARTS MAKING THE ROUND, IT'S LIMITED AS INVESTMENTS HAVE GONE ON AND NOW RAISING MONEY TO THE DEBT MARKET AND FOR A LOT OF FOLKS, ALMOST A YELLOW FLAG, THAT IS A RED FLAG BUT NOW I SEE SOME INDICATIONS MAYBE BY 2030 FREE CASH FLOW COULD BE AT LEVELS THAT THE WHARF WHERE WE ARE COMING FROM,, IS THAT TOO OPTIMISTIC, COULD THAT HAPPEN? >> PART OF WHAT WE ARE WATCHING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS AND GOOGLE WILL BLESS 2027 UP NEXT WILL BE MEANINGFULLY HIGHER, WILL REVENUE COMES THROUGH? IF THE REVENUE COMES THROUGH IN THE KEEP INVESTING MAYBE LATER SO WHAT THE MARKET WILL GRAPPLE WITH IS WHETHER GROWTH DRIVERS ARE DURABLE ENOUGH AND IN GOOGLE'S CASE I THINK THEY ARE. >> APPLE WHICH WAS SORT OF CHASTISED FOR HAVING AI, THEY DID NOT GO ALL IN BUT NOW THERE ARE REPORTS THEY ARE ON THE HUNT CHIP ACQUISITION AND THEY COME UP SHORT AND THEY MAY BE LOSING OUT ON THIS RACE. AS AN ANALYST WHO SWALLOWED THIS FOR A LONG TIME, SHOULD THEY KEEP TRYING TO DO IT INTERNALLY OR WHAT IT MAKES SENSE TO LOOK OUTSIDE? >> WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THIS COMPANY, THEY BEEN INQUISITIVE AND TECHNOLOGY, 2008 THE ABOUT THE COMPANY CALLED EA AND THE DESIGN TALENT. >> THIS WOULD BE GARGANTUAN IF IT HAPPENED. >> POTENTIALLY BUT EVEN IN THAT SCENARIO GIVEN 500 BILLING DOLLARS REVENUE BASE IN MY VIEW, ITIT'S MORE ABOUT THE INTELLECTL PROPERTY, INFUSING IT INTO THEIR INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICE, THEIR FOCUS IS ON PRIVACY AND MAKING SURE USER EXPERIENCE IS DIFFERENTIATED. ULTIMATELY, IT'S ABOUT IPHONE SERVICES GROWTH AND MAKING SURE ROADMAPS, SIRI AI AND THEY KEEP EXECUTING ON THOSE CYCLES. >> IT'S CLIPPED TO A NEW HIGH SO THAT PART IS SECURE, I DON'T THINK THERE'S A PROBLEM THERE. A HEADLINE OUT ON GOOGLE AND GEMLIKE, THEY ARE NOT HAPPY INTERNALLY WITH REVENUE CALLING FOR. GOING INTO LAST YEAR, EVERYONE WAS CONCERNED ABOUT SEARCH AND OTHER PARTS OF THE BUSINESS, THEY CAME OUT WITH TPU CHIPS AND GEMLIKE, HOW CRITICAL IS IT THAT THEY GET THIS RIGHT? >> THAT HAD DELAYS B BEFORE ANDI ANTICIPATED NOW WITH GEMLIKE 3.0, THERE ARE FURTHER DELAYS AND I EXPECT THAT TO BE PART OF THE NARRATIVE AND LANDSCAPE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WHAT'S IMPORTANT IS HARNESSING THESE MODELS INFUSING THEM INTO SEARCH AND YOUTUBE AND CLOUD AND ALL BUSINESS IS. WE ARE SEEING STRONG RESULTS THERE SO IT'S THE REVENUE ALONG WITH THE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP, IT'S INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT AND NO COMPANY INCLUDING GOOGLE WILL GET IT RIGHT EVERY TIME. >> THIRTY SECONDS SO WHETHER IT'S APPLE, MIMICROSOFT, NVIDIA, GOOGLE, AMAZON, YOU STILL FEEL STRONG ABOUT THE VALUE PROPOSITION YOU PINPOINTED LONG BEFORE ANYONE ON THE STREET YEARS AGO STILL IN PLACE. >> VERY MUCH IN PLACE AND WILL ALWAYS BE LUMPY BUT LOOK AT THEE PACE OF INNOVATION, NVIDIA, AND THE NEW ARCHITECTURE WILL BE RAMPING THE NEW PLATFORM AND MICROSOFT COMPUTE CONSTRAINTS SO AS LONG AS THE COMPANIES NAVIGATE NEAR-TERM AS THEY HAVE TO WHILE INVESTING LONG-TERM, I THINK IT CAN NEW TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHAREHOLDER VALUEUE FROM HERE. >> WE SAY GE

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