I Bought These 2 Stocks Again During the Crash. Here's Why

Hey everyone and welcome back to another portfolio update for you today. You thought I wouldn't go over the horrible performance of the week. Well, you're wrong. Performance has been bad. Down 9.39% over the past week. S&P was only down.78%. But year to date, we're still doing fine. As of right now, we're up 27.74% whereas the S&P is up 9%. Since the start, we're still doing very well here. 221.6. 7% whereas S&P is up 49.63%. And so in today's video, we shall look at the probabilities of a rate cut or rate hikes for this year. Spoiler alert, probabilities have changed. Earnings season has started. We already had ASML and TSMC. And next week, well, this week we are going to have a very big one. Alphabet, we have Tesla, we have Service Now, IBM, Intel, Nokia. So, it's going to be one hell of a week. We're going to have a look at what the market is expecting to see from these companies. And of course, we need to talk about the reason why the market is freaking out right now. So, we'll look at this post here from Kimmy AI talking about Kim K3, one of their newest models, per best performing models actually. So, we'll talk about all of that in today's video. Now, first up, yes, late night video. Why is that? World Cup final. So, anyways, we all fell asleep during that game. So yeah, that's why this video is late. But hey, congrats to Spain on winning the World Cup. Truly almost impossible to score against that team. Maybe because everybody's falling asleep when they watch Spain or they play against them. But it's over. So what are we all watching nowadays? The stock market, of course. And so let's start with that. Let's start with maybe the portfolio. what I've been doing over the past couple of days, what I maybe expect to do over the next couple of days and weeks because I do think that the volatility will continue, right? I do think right now earning season, you'll have of course Alphabet, you'll have Intel, they will already talk about what's going on here in this AI space. We have the geopolitical issues probably now that the World Cup is over that's going to start again. So, do expect some more volatility. Let's start off here with a portfolio overview. Of course, Nebu still number one despite it taking a big hit. Nebu number one so far is back at the number two spot. That's again because the AI names, right? The AI sector or AI story segment has taken a bigger hit. So, Nebus is down a lot, AMD is down a lot, Google is down. So, so far it's back here at the number two spot. We have AMD at number three, Google number four. Then we have some Rocket Lab did go under $70. Meta, Oscar, Health, the Local, Rubric, Robin Hood, Micron under $900, Uber, New Palanteer, Shift 4, Axon, Netflix, Reddit, some cash left, and a couple of shares of Nvidia. Now, I did add I did add just 10 extra shares here of Nebus at $181. So, a very very small increase of the position. And I did add another 30 shares of Rocket Lab at $68.36. Why is that? Well, because this is what I said before. The last time I bought 20 extra shares was at $81. I'll continue to accumulate more under $80. Ideally, it goes to the low7s. Well, didn't just go to the low7s. It went actually under it. And so I acquired more shares because remember I did take profit of Rocket Lab a while ago. Did take a lot of profit as you can see right here. 45 shares at $114 and 100 shares at close to $87. And so everything that I'm buying right now basically buying back those shares at a lower price. As for Nebuse, this is my highest conviction name. And I'll explain why because this is very important to understand the AI story. why these names are coming crashing down. Now, maybe it's not for everyone. That's completely fine. It is for me because I do still think that Nebus to me is going to be a gigantic company in the future. Now, to understand a bit of the context here, right, a year and a half ago, we had the deepseek drama, right? The Chinese model came out and suddenly, oh, you could do everything an American company or an American model could do, but for way less. One year and a half ago, guess what? A company like Nebus had their best week ever when DeepS got released. Okay, one and a half years ago. Of course, since then, every AI name, every semiconductor name has gone up. Fast forward to this week, Kimmy. Okay, Kimmy is already a well-known name in this whole LLM model, inference player, whatever you want to call it. It's Chinese company. Although the founder, one of the founders did study in the United States for some reason, didn't stay there and create his company into an American company. But okay, that's it. But Kimmy came out with Kimmy K3, crushed it across the board, beat Cloth Fable 5, beat everyone. Now when we talk about inferencing they said well first of all they said this Kim K3 has received far more love than we expected and our GPUs are feeling it over the past 84 hours demand has pushed close to the limits of our current capacity to protect the experience of existing subscribers. We're temporary pausing new subscriptions and prioritizing compute for current members. Existing subscribed users are not affected. Now just so we understand here the market was freaking out about over capacity too much spending oh they're coming in and and suddenly there's not going to be enough demand for maybe an open AI or a cloud or whatever let let me explain something in the world here of inferencing if let's say company XYZ who some people are using right now goes out of business because well it cost them too much etc etc. Don't think that the need for compute is going to come down because oh suddenly one company doesn't exist anymore. The the users still exist which means the users will have to flee to another company another model. Guess what? That model will still need more compute. Kimik3 right now is telling us look thank you very much. We appreciate all the love. We know our model is great, but we can handle we can't handle the demand right now. And when we're hearing this, of course, first of all, it's I think it they're hosted on Alibaba's cloud maybe, if I remember correctly. But anyways, when I'm hearing this, I'm like, guys, everybody needs more compute. This is not the end. Also, it doesn't really matter who is at the number one spot when you are someone like a core reef or someone like a Nebus because a Nebus doesn't care who's number one in the arena or number two or number three. They care about tokens, okay? They care about the amount of tokens that gets generated. And so, if there is a model here that is very good, that is very cheap, that is very efficient and fast, etc., etc., it's very good for them. It's actually very good for the whole ecosystem. Guess what? Entropic suddenly started to say, "Oh, you can actually use Fable 5 even more right now and you can do this and you can do that." Right? These are the moves that we need for the ecosystem because guess what? Cheaper tokens means better for the ecosystem because the ecosystem is now going to grow much faster because it's not going to cost you a million dollars to create something. I'm just throwing that million dollar number around because it's it's a big number. So, it's shocking. But cheaper tokens means more users can do a lot of things. If more users can do a lot of things, you can create more things. If you can create more things, you are creating a bigger and bigger ecosystem. Guess what? As the ecosystem grows, you will need, you guessed it, more compute. So pretty good for players like a Nebuse but even the big players even a Google even an Amazon a Microsoft Azure an Oracle a corre etc etc it's good for these types of players it's good for the semiconductor names as well of course we are going to get more optimization right in the space especially when it comes to memory but this notion again of oh it's the end oh Kimmy is destroying no first of or if OpenAI and Entropic were public, I do think that they would be down around 50% or so this week. One, because they would have been overvalued, and two, there was they would have just followed the same trend as we've seen with all the other AI names right now. But this notion that we are at the end here of the cycle, it it just doesn't make any sense to me. And here Kimmy again proving that look guys, the demand is just insane. we don't have enough compute which leads me to of course the upcoming earnings week because one there are some players here and well and IBM we already know but a service now right in the in the software team service now reporting I do think is a very important one to start off this earning season we have Tesla I don't know how much value they can provide here but okay but we do have Alphabet on Wednesday we do have Intel Thursday after the market closes Unfortunately, I will not be able to cover Intel until probably Monday because I'll be flying to Barcelona. But I will be covering, of course, Alphabet. And Alphabet, I still like it. I I still think this can become the biggest company, the most valuable company on the planet. But let's have a look at what the market or the analysts are expecting Alphabet to report. Now, Alphabet, as you can see, is still up 9.7% year to date. But at one point right at the end of March, it was actually down 20.6%. So we were already having quite a volatile year. I know it doesn't seem like it, but I mean this thing here doesn't lie. But yeah, over the last year still up 81%. This one is trading at the trading 12 months PE of 26.4 times. Forward one 27.2 times. Of course, price to free cash flow. We know it's quite high because they're spending an insane amount of money on more data centers on their own G well GPU TPUs etc etc. We'll look at the cloud in a bit. So what are we expected to see a revenue of around $11617 billion EPS for the quarter to be around $2.90. If we are going to look here at free cash flow I would expect the range to be okay. Yeah. So apparently free cash flow is expected to be negative for this quarter. For the next quarter the range here is quite big but for this quarter it's expected to be negative and an abbit of around $40.2 billion. Now with Alphabet we can see what the market is expecting this company to do revenue wise over the next coming fiscal years. So for this fiscal year expected to grow 21% year-over-year. Then 18.7 and then another let's call it 18% in fiscal 28 to reach around $682.8 billion. I would expect this number to be probably a little bit bigger maybe closer to 700 uh billion dollars. Now of course what is everybody's going to look at is well Google cloud revenue and as you can clearly see here Google cloud revenue has been accelerating in growth and margins have been going up and to the right as well I am expecting this trend to continue now we know operating margin of the last 12 months 32.7% excellent free cash flow margin as you can clearly see here of the last 12 months It has been coming down. Now what about the backlog? Because last quarter you can clearly see backlog basically close to doubled 467.6 billion. How much higher is this thing going to go? Right? Are we going to reach 500 billion, 600 billion? What's the number going to be this quarter? But this number is insane. Of course, we've seen backlogs, right, for Oracle, etc., etc. But I'll be honest, I trust a Google more than an Oracle. Plus, Google has the money. Oracle doesn't, especially not at this moment. So, yeah, I don't see how this is not another record-breaking quarter for Google. Of course, we will have to wait and see what the capex number is going to be. Is it going to be a big update, a big race? Maybe already some comments on 27, although I highly doubt it. I think they're just going to say, "Look, we are investing because we see an insane amount of demand." Which again is is is very good for this cycle. Up to the next one, and that's of course Intel. Intel is probably going to be another important one in this whole chip sphere, right? Intel has had a tremendous year, tremendous revival, still upund close to 40% year to date. And over the past 12 months, it's up 306%. But as you can see, it is currently experiencing a 33% draw down. So if you thought you missed your chance here, it's down 33% from the highs, which happened around, yeah, June 22nd. It's a $477 billion company. Of course, there's no trading PE and the forward one is quite high. Although if things do recover quicker, this number does come down quite quickly as well because well the forward-looking expectations from analysts are going to be much higher which would lead to a much lower forward PE. Now with Intel, of course, we need to hear what's going on with Intel Foundry 18A possible developments 14A more updates. I do think that the CPU story here is still going very very well. Let's hear about the data centers etc etc. With regards to Intel, some momentum is definitely there with the company. Market is expecting 14.42 billion EPS of around what was it? What was the expectations? 21 cents. Okay. Could they beat it? I mean they've been beating expectations more recently. So could happen yet again. I do wonder what the market is looking at free cash flow wise. A billion dollars. Okay, not bad. It's been it's been way worse before. As for a bit, $1.6 billion. Look, with regards to Intel, would I like to get back into Intel? Maybe, but I I don't feel I need to own it. I did pick it in the stock draft yesterday or well by the time you're watching this maybe two days ago because again a good Intel and I've said this a year ago a good Intel could be worth a trillion dollars. Of course a lot of things will need to go their way right now. A lot of things have gone their way but the results aren't there yet to justify a trillion dollar valuation and some might even say a $500 billion valuation is also quite far-fetched. But again, the market is forward-looking and it does seem like Intel is going in the right direction and I'm very happy to see that. Now, as for the rest here, coming back to the positions. So, the PayPal bull spreads, like I said, I didn't do anything just yet because well, one, it's a win-win situation. I just don't see how they were going to accept this and so it already moved the stock up. PayPal is going to report their quartile figures in what two weeks time or so. They already rejected the bid, which means if they really want to buy it, they'll probably submit a higher bid. And so to me, it's a win-win if we're going to see the company move in the right direction, stock will go higher and higher, which means well, I did not have to close it as of right now. Maybe it's wishful thinking, I don't know. Copium, whatever. Doesn't I don't care. I still have a lot of time, right? This is for December 2028. So until then, maybe another three buyers can pop up. As for corewave, still the same here. Still the January call, which means I do have some cash that I can transfer if I need to because this is a smaller position around half of what I had before before I had shares. I basically said, you know what, if the stock is not going to move where this was before there was a bigger pull down, then I might as well look at LEAPS. And this is what I did, which means I'm getting exposed to, I'd say, maybe the same upside, if not more. And then I do have some cash on the side, which I always like to do and have before an earning season. Now, as for the rest, of course, we've talked a lot about what has happened this week, right, with the Netflix. I didn't buy more Netflix right now because I do think that it's I I'll have time to buy Netflix at around $70 or maybe just under $80 because the market is again asking questions and every time the market asks questions, we have time because we're not going to hear anything from Netflix for the next couple of months unless unless they do acquire a studio. Then then we'll see which one it is. We'll see how much they are going to pay and if not then I guess we'll wait 3 months. As for Uber, Uber delivery hero to me again a very very good move. Making sure that a company not only stays super competitive but becomes even stronger. This is a company that in my opinion does all the right move because it has tremendous leadership. I've added a lot to Uber. I don't plan to add more right now. Why? Because I do want to increase the exposure for Nebus. Nebus a rocket lab. Tomorrow I'll talk about a potential multibagger. Although I don't think it will enter my portfolio right now because I do have Reddit that I still want to increase. I do have Axon that I want to increase as well. Keep some cash. Maybe buy more SoFi if that one uh does come down. We'll uh we'll see what happens with SoFi. But yeah, right now I do like what I have. I do think again that Nebus to me is a hundred billion dollar company plus because to me there is not going to be one AI model that wins it all and let's say if there is then we're going to have a bigger issues so I I don't think we're we're going to have an open AI we're going to have an entropic a Gro a Gemini you name it you're going to have in my opinion also quite a lot of open source models and again the more the better it will be for a company like Nebuse. I think we're going to be very surprised by the results, by the guidance, the comments from the management. Right now, in my opinion, we are having a dip. If you are long-term investor and you're looking at good companies, not talking about the trash companies that have gone up significantly and now they're down 60% like a Navitas for example, that you know, Navitas is down 60% or so from the highs. Oh, buying opportunity. I I don't know if it's a buying opportunity. It should have never been that high, right? Just because they they wrote a blog and Nvidia is involved and etc. No. Right now, they have nothing to show on paper. It might go up when everything else goes up for sure. But do you want to own it? Because I'm pretty sure that in the future we're going to have more of these flash crashes. And do you want to own these types of names that can suddenly go down 60% because the market realizes that actually there's no real business behind that name that's worth billions of dollars. We we've talked about that. I gave the example, right? A Rocket Lab, I love it, but it should have never been at $150 per share this early. An A space should have never been a $50 billion company or I don't know how high this thing went. Just didn't make any sense. And even today, sorry to say, it just doesn't make any sense. I don't get this. Oh, we've got 60 partners and and three billion subscribers potential. The three billion subscriber potential means absolutely nothing if nobody is willing to pay an extra 10 bucks a month to get a satellite connection, which let's face it, again, most of us that live in cities, we don't need it, okay? That's just the reality. And so yes, in this let's say short or maybe Sunday version of a therapy session, just buy good companies. If you like it, if you did the research, don't listen to someone else. Don't don't even listen to me. If you like ASD, if you think I'm completely wrong, if you like Navitas, if you think I'm completely wrong, do your thing, right? If you did all the research, do your thing. But stick to it. Don't start to change your mind because oh, Michael Bur said this or oh this X account said XYZ or No, it's your money. It's your portfolio. It's your future. It's your move. Talking about moves, what is the Fed's move going to be? Well, we do have a Fed meeting in around 9 days or so, but we don't really care about that one because nothing will happen. And so, let's again fast forward to January 2027. And as you can see right now, January 2027, 38.7% chance that we're going to have one hike. Okay, not that surprising. But if we look at the current target rate, 26.2% chance that nothing happens in 2026. Now, you might say, "Oh, 26.2%. That's not that great." Well, a day ago it was 21.8, and a week ago it was 12.6 six and a month ago it was 11.5. Now could this number continue to go up as maybe we get better and better CPI, PPI reports, things like that? Yes, it could. But if gas prices are again going to go higher, then we might just get another one month shock when it comes to inflation. And so these probabilities will change yet again in the favor of a hike and not a cut or not a zero rate cut or hike year. So conclusion here, don't really care much about this because this as you can see is extremely volatile and changes every single damn week. And so ladies and gentlemen, that's about it for me in today's video. Again, congratulations to Spain. See you all in the next one. Bye-bye.