These 2 Stocks are about to BALLOON‼️

Can you say AMD? Look at AMD back rolling again. Up $100,000 on AMD stock here today. Congratulations any AMD shareholders watching this. Absolute beast mode in regards to AMD. Uh at the beginning of this video, I want to talk about certain stocks in particular in this video. I want to talk about AMD a little bit, where that stock's headed next. I want to talk about Micron a little bit in this video here today along with a few other stocks. So, I thought we'd speak about just a bunch of stocks at the beginning of this video. I also want to talk about a couple stocks that have the potential to absolutely explode higher as well as a few others. So, we'll speak about that in this video here today. Once we get done going through that, I want to react to this video here. Stephanie Link buys more or Micron or excuse me, buys Micron in Nvidia. And I want thought that would be a cool subject to speak about like is this a stage where you want to be buying in Nvidia or a Micron after the huge moves? Like, do they have a lot more upside ahead? So, I thought that would be fun to react to. Then we're going to go ahead and react to this one around oil prices and a few other things here. And I thought that would be a cool video to react to. You know why? Because I recorded that video last night that 98,000 people had gotten to see see so far on the main channel. And I spoke about a brand new stock that I am planning on buying. And uh that stock was kind of shocking to a lot of people out there. They're like, "Wow, that's a different stock for Jeremy to be interested in." So all righty folks, uh got a lot to go through in this one. One thing, one thing all I need from you, if you haven't already done so, please smash that like button, that little thumbs up icon. I just need you to make that glow. And that's all I need from you here today. Okay, if you want to be subscribed to the channel, you can certainly subscribe. We are now at a new all-time high subscribers in the history of channel. I appreciate y'all for being here. Private groups back open. That will be the pinned comment down there. If you're looking to apply, join the private group that uh just opened up back up to new members yesterday. Okay. All righty. So, AMD uh let's speak about AMD here. Listen, 600's common in my opinion and coming fast. The thing with AMD and like why do I feel like 600's coming fast here? The reason being is I don't think I'm the only one that is of the belief that AMD is going to have a pretty insane guidance number. And so I think a lot of people want to get positioned into AMD prior to that guidance because if the guidance does come out and it's a banger, you're going to see the stock up 10% plus the next day. And so I think a lot of people are kind of figuring I need a position into AMD before those earnings come out, right? And so that's why I wouldn't be surprised if we see AMD hit 600 plus, you know, honestly in the next two weeks. I wouldn't be surprised at all. Like it can happen like that. And you can see how it can happen because the moves the stock makes when it has an upside day is is massive. Like you look at today climbed what? About $40 a share roughly, right? about $40 a share of that stock climb today. You know, it does another one of those days, you're at 5.82, right? And then you have a $20 day and you're over 600. So that's why I'm like, hm, I think 600's plus coming. You know, AMD just has the momentum, man. It has the momentum. And the only thing that could really let AMD stock down right now would be a scenario where the guidance barely beats estimates. It's only like a little bit ahead of where Wall Street's expecting if that happened. I mean, shoot, you know, AMD would fall right back down, you know, to a low 500 range or even high 400 range if that happened. But that would be, I think, pretty shocking to everybody if that happened. Right? We're expecting a pretty pretty darn epic guidance number out of AMD. Right now, this leads me to kind of talk about Micron here in some of these sorts of stocks. Right? Listen, people are trying to top call, you know, in regards to stocks and they're trying to play this game. They started trying to play this game, I think over the past month or two, and trying to top call Micron, trying to top call AMD. You you're just a little early in regards to that. A little early. Okay, it's a dangerous time to top call these stocks cuz they'll, you know, you want to top call them and buy puts, short them, whatever. They'll slap you with 30% upside in in three weeks and you'll be like, "Oh my gosh, like it's insane, right?" and look at a stock like Micron up what 12% today or whatever. So there will be a time period to top call these but I think the earliest time period you can possibly top call is in the fourth quarter of this year. I think a more realistic scenario is first quarter second quarter of next year if you want to top call the stocks. Now in terms of the earnings those are still aren't topping for at least another two to three years. So now keep in mind the stocks are going to top way before the earnings top, right? But I'm just like people are way early in regards to trying to top call these babies. They're they're going to they're going to top, right? And um hit an alltime high and then probably not hit that alltime high again for a long long time. But you're just early. You're just early in regards to that. And so that's just something to kind of keep in mind in regards to these stocks. And that's why you don't see me rushing to sell my AMD. That's why you don't see me going out there and being like, I'm going to go short Micron next year. Maybe, right? Even though the earnings going to be a banger, but it's like, okay, maybe next year you really have worries about 28 or 29's earnings, but right now it's too early. Too early. And so, um, you got to be very, very careful with those stocks, you know, specifically with betting on downside, right? And so, just something to kind of keep in mind in regards to those. Now, as far as a couple other, you know, there's a couple stocks that are ready to absolutely explode to the upside, what are they? They their service now in Salesforce, if Salesforce comes in with a good guidance number and a good conference call, if they can come in with a good guidance and good conference call on their earnings, Service Now and Salesforce are ready to explode higher. But they got to do that. If the guidance is weak, the you know, you know, it's going back under 100, way under 100. It's probably going under 90, right? And Salesforce will go back to 150. If the guidance isn't all that, you got to come in, you got to have a strong beat on guidance, you got to have a strong conference call. Let people know like this belief in regards to like, oh, are these SAS business models not necessary anymore? we're just going to use anthropic or chat GPT or other AIs and things like that. You just got to kill off that. Now, if Service Now comes in with a strong guide and a good conference call, you're going to see more than just Salesforce and Service Now to go up. You're going to also see companies like Palunteer move higher. You're going to see companies like Mr. Softy and Microsoft move higher. It's going to move the whole space. You'll even see some stocks like Adobe catch a bid and into it companies that aren't really in the same space, but you know, you kind of group a lot of these stocks together in ETFs out there. So, just something to kind of keep in mind in regards to that. Google McDougall is going to be very important in in regards to the overall market because it's just a such a massive market cap. In regards to that one, right, Celsius, the wealthiest. There we go. Okay, that's the new nickname for Celsius. Somebody said Celsius refuses to go up because Jeremy hasn't come out with a nickname. And I think they might be right. So, we're we're calling it officially. This video is going to be the first one to call it Celsius the wealthiest. That one's ready to move. Um, and when it does move, it's going to be dramatic in my opinion. You'll see the stock like double up in months, not like years. So, ELF takes a little breather, but then that one comes back very, very strong every single time. American Express earnings at the end of this week, they should come in with a great beat. It might come in with a triple beat. Two P's in it. Two P's in it. That type of triple beat. Okay. If you watch yesterday's video, you know what I'm talking about. Okay, let's go ahead and react to some Wall Street. >> What brought you into the fold here? >> This should be an interesting one. >> Yeah, sure. So, I sold Marll uh because I was up over 100%. Same like I did with Pterodine. I think you take profits when you can take them. And then I added >> Come on, Stephanie Link. You've been in this game a long time. That's ridiculous. You don't just sell a stock because you're up a lot on it. You know, that's just a horrible answer she gave there. Like gosh, Stephanie Link, that is a horrible answer you gave there. You know that. You can't just say, "Oh, you know, I sold Marbell's up a lot. You know, I got to take profits. I take no what what are we talking about? You could have talked about, I think, you know, the P ratio is too high now. I think the returns are going to be limited on a forward P basis. Now, at this point in time, I think they're going to have too much competition coming. You could have talked about price to sales ratios versus peers. Could have talked about a million different things. But to say I sold it because the stock is up a lot. Uh, ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous. Listen, everybody watching this, listen, great stocks go on great runs. And so to sell them just because they're up a lot is ridiculous. It's not the way you play this game. That's how you end up screwing yourself on a stock like Palunteer and you buy it at seven bucks and you sell it at 14 because it's up a lot. All to watch it go from 14 to 200. Don't do that, man. You don't do that. You know, look at a stock like MU. You could have bought that for a hundred bucks a year ago or so, and then it goes to 200, and you're like, "Oh, we're up a lot on it." And then MU goes from 200 to a,000, right? And some people feel like it's on its way to 2,000 before this uh cycle's over. you know, you can't just sell a stock because you're up a lot on it. That's what great stocks are supposed to do that they're supposed to make you a lot of money. That's the whole thing. And so, uh, you know, it's got to be based on valuations or you don't believe in the company anymore or something like that. Not because they're up a lot. Come on Stephanie. >> Micron because the stock is down about 24% from its highs and the fundamentals remain amazingly strong. We all know that. But I think it's going to be stronger for longer. when I went through the quarter and I've been going through the quarter uh report over the last couple of weeks and you know they've signed 16 deals last quarter 14 of which it gives them a hundred billion dollars in RPO and that's bookings and I think that that means that the the visibility is just so much better as a result and so I do think the AI trade is certainly not over I think we're in the third or fourth inning at this point in time and we are short memory we are short compute And that gives this company a lot of pricing power. I don't know if we're going to see the pricing power that we saw last quarter. I mean, they had 60% average selling prices in DRAM and 80% in NAND, but I do think you're going to see ASPs be stronger uh and just strong in general. And I think this company has about $40 a share in uh earnings power through the cycle. I also added to Nvidia. We started buying that two weeks ago. I just believe that the it's lagged so much. It's actually underperformed the group by 53% year to date. It trades at 18 times forward estimates. That's the cheapest it's traded at since 2019. And we know that they dominate the GPU market. I understand there's competition coming, but they will always dominate the GPU market in my mind. Um, and they have new products coming. And this is a company that's growing revenues in the 80s, gross margins in the 70s, and they're going to double their free cash flow between now uh and next year. end of next year. And so I like that visibility as well. And I think there's a good value there. >> Yeah, I I saw this interesting stat from OPCO this morning, guys. With Micron and Nvidia are the top two contributors to year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P and Q2. If these two companies were excluded, according to OPCO, the blended earnings growth rate of the S&P for Q2 would fall to 16.8% from 24.7%. That's a 790 basis point improvement. Joe, I know you own these two as well. Are these musthowns just given their impact to earnings growth in Q2? >> Well, look, I think if you have not owned them, the the right perspective to take is you now have a pullback into what is technical support. >> Micron's up 10% today, >> right? And you're you're technically you're still sitting above the 100 day moving average. I think the fundamentals are well known about memory, high bandwidth memory and the universe of AI infrastructure. We know hyperscalers will continue to spend and they are ultimately going to benefit. I think from a sentiment positioning standpoint they reached an extreme. They went parabolic and you need to work off you needed to work off that overbought type of condition and I think that's in fact what you've done. So if you do not have a position you have what I would call a lowrisk well-defined point of entry here versus these critical supportive moving averages. um if they break down below it, then you can make a strong argument that maybe there was a significant inflection point that was traced out several weeks ago. Um but I hold them from a a core perspective in the ETF. I'm not adding to them here because I do think we've worked off the significant fever and I think overall you've seen the momentum factor come down dramatically this month. Okay, one of >> So here's you know I don't want people to get caught up into a big trap here. Okay, listen. Let me explain this. Micron trades a ridiculously low forward P and two-year forward P, right? The two-year forward P and Micron's a five. So, you look at that and you're like, uh, that should trade a lot higher, right? Don't expect that to go up dramatically. That two-year forward P, you know, could go six or could go seven. Could go six or could go seven, right? Maybe eight. But don't think like that two-year forward P is going to go to, you know, 15, 20, something like that. People are very understanding that Micron is dramatically over earning in this cycle we're in and will be way over earning not only in this year but likely next year and potentially in 2028. And then they believe that cycle is going to end. I believe that cycle is going to end too in terms of this like overearing. And that doesn't mean like oh Micron's going to start losing money or something. It's just then it's going to be like you know you're going to have a situation where the demand for AI chips will slow down a lot. right now. Some people believe that's never going to happen and Nvidia the demand's just going to be astronomically high in AMD um in memory and everything. No, I don't believe that at all. Why? Why do I not believe there's not it's not possible for neverending insane demand where just the ridiculous amounts of orders of GPUs, CPUs, everything is just goes up dramatically every single year for the next, you know, 5 years, 10 years. Why? It's math. Have you seen the numbers? Google, Meta, Amazon, all these companies are spending. They don't have the wiggle room to up dramatically their spend in regards to all of this infrastructure after next year. They just don't. So, they're even already, these companies are already starting to issue debt, starting to take on a lot of debt, right? Starting to dilute shareholder value. They're already doing that now. Right now, this is already happening. So, if you think like they have a ton of wiggle room next year, the year after, the year after to up capex budgets a ton more, I hate to break it to you, it's just math. They don't. So, all of these companies are going to dramatically overearn in 26, 27, and potentially 28, but 28's a question mark. Okay? And when I talk about overearning, it's going to be AMD, it's going to be Micron, probably companies like SanDisk and other memory chip plays, SKH, Samsung, those ones, right? Nvidia, all these companies are dramatically over earning this year, next year, and potentially 28. That's just a question mark. Then after that, you're going to have a slowdown cycle. And that's going to be where these companies will start to probably under earn for a 3 to five year span. That's how this industry works time and time again. And a lot of people believe, you know, they believe like, "Oh, this time's different." No, it's not. Same. It's just the same industry, man. It's the same industry. It's the same cycles every time. They try to say this time's different. You know, they're just going to spend unrelentlessly forever. If these companies just made so much money that they could do that, they could do that. But they can't. They're already maxing out their capex budgets already. So, they just don't have that wiggle room to go up dramatically, right? The good thing for somebody like an AMD is they're going to be able to take market share, market share, market share. And their products are, you know, very affordably priced. So that's a good thing for somebody like them. Memory is good for the short term. When I say short term, I'm talking the next one to two years because like there's no way around it. You know, Nvidia chips, Broadcom chips, AMD chips, doesn't matter. It all needs memory, massive amounts of memory, right? and capacity will eventually catch up, but you're going to have a slowdown cycle, but it's going to start in like two to three years from >> worst months for the momentum factor in the last 10 years. And it seems to me you have a little bit of a handoff. And what's saving the market is the performance of the mega cap. It's your Apple, it's your Meta, it's your Amazon, they're performing Nvidia, they're all performing really well in July. And I think that handoff might continue. So, I'm a little bit uh muted in terms of how I think about positioning. If you're there, stay there. If you're not there, lowest point of reference, don't get overly excited about a trade that probably saw its most strongest intensity several weeks ago. >> Well, I guess the key question too, Josh, is whether this is a a factor unwind in terms of momentum and a lot of the AI infrastructure exposure or a fundamental unwind. This is a question that Wells Fargo was asking this morning. And if it is purely factor-based and and positioning based, do you feel like that unwind is is to a point now where it's completely been flushed out? >> Before we go into that, like you know, when is probably the right time to start cashing on a lot of these semiconductor stocks? I mean, I can understand if people want to cash this month, right? and they they you know want to take some profits or something like that already. But I think the best time to cash these probably going to be this is my opinion, right? And of course things can happen in the market. You're going to have corrections and crashes in the meantime. We'll see. Okay. But my opinion is the best time to likely start cashing profits on these semiconductor stocks is likely Q4 of this year into the first and second quarter of next year. Right? I think you're probably going to have at least one if not two major bull cycles in regards to semiconductor stocks and um those will give good exit points for a lot of individuals out there and I think people are going to see the earnings you know a lot of Wall Streeters and alos are going to see the earnings coming out for these companies and they're going to get incredibly excited over the next six to nine months and I think that will give uh good exit liquidity for a lot of us retail investors that were early to this and have made, you know, millions of dollars in in regards to these stocks, right? And so that's my opinion, right? And once again, that doesn't mean right after that the stocks crash necessarily. They could continue to, you know, move up slightly or just kind of play a game of up and down, up and down, up and down, up and down, but not really going anywhere. Right? Nvidia has been playing that game for a long time now. You know, Nvidia, you could have paid 200 plus for that stock last year and today it's just over 200. So Nvidia has been playing that game for months where it moves up, moves down, but it's not really going anywhere. That will eventually be a cycle that AMD and Micron get into. So there'll be other stocks in that too. It'll be it'll be Broadcom. Um it'll be SanDisk. It'll be all those sorts of stocks. Well, the market it doesn't matter what I think because the market is telling you um that they bought the that they're buying the dip and they think that most of what went on was technical and not fundamental. That's why the entire AI trade is ripping today. Not just the semis but all the non-technology companies that have been uh caught up in this whole AI capex buildout theme. They're all they're all up. Uh DRAM's up 10% today. the top performing stocks in the S&P, Sienna, SanDisk, um, Western Digital, Micron, Intel, AMD, Corning. So, it's all one trade. The trade got washed out this month. Joe made a really good point, I think, and and we we had this handoff underneath the surface of the market that allowed us to not give up too much ground in the in the S&P at at the index level. And uh the market today is telling you they want to be long these names. Now, why today? This is the thing that nobody's brought up yet. If you're bullish on the Steam, you can't not be in these stocks ahead of Google because what the Google what the Google earnings report does for us every quarter is it serves as this sort of like um come on into the revival tent for uh Brother Love's Traveling Salvation show. It's the affirmation that everybody needs to hear about the state of capex, the forward guide for capex, the fact >> I was just talking about this in yesterday's main channel video. We talked about a million things in that video, but this was one of the things I talked about and Google's probably going to have to up their capex again or at the minimum say they're going to be on the very highest end range of their capex numbers for full year. So that's funny. had just talked about this exact subject last night >> that all these projects are going ahead maybe even more projects than we thought about 90 days ago the last time they reported. So like if you if you're bullish you need to be in ahead of Google not sitting on the sideline because this is arguably the cleanest AI story in the entire market from the the hyper from a hyperscaler uh perspective. I also think um you know it's a re it's a really healthy tape. The fact that we had these stocks 20 30% draw downs. You would have thought, oh no, now the whole market's going to sell off cuz it lost its leadership. Number one, that didn't happen. And number two, this has been a really helpful reminder for traders. Ain't no such thing as one-way trades. It doesn't exist. the best stocks in the market, the most powerful names, the best earning stories, they're going to have down days, they're going to have down weeks, or even a down month on the way toward higher prices. We need to get that reminder. If they just go parabolic every single day the market opens, then you're in for a real crash. And fortunately, this is what keeps the market honest. This unwinds some of the leverage. This gets people to actually hit the sell button on some of these 2x ETFs. like this is what you need for a longer term uptrend. So, I'm really pleased with the way not only these stocks are rebounding, but the way the overall market is processing what's happening and and living through it. >> That's a really good point with regard to Alphabet earnings and the timing. >> I'm very good at this. >> Yeah, you got some experience there. Um, also in kind of the fundamental camp of why we're seeing semiconductor stocks move higher today, you've got Taiwan June export orders that were kind of skyrocketing. TSMC reportedly looking to raise prices 10% next year. That's according to Nikke. So I guess the question is given what we've seen in terms of positioning, given some of the fundamental stories that we're digging through today. >> This is the this is the bad news, man. And I hate to break the bad news. And no one like no one's talking about it, but this is the bad news. Everybody raising price, raising price, raising price. Everybody's like, "Oh man, you know, demand's so high. I can get whatever I want right now." So the memory companies all raise price. AMD raised price. Nvidia, they would raise price if they could, but they can't because their prices are already so sky-high. So they kind of got to, if anything, decrease prices. Um, especially with AMD on their heels, right? So they're maybe the one company in the space that can't raise price. Uh, Broadcom's got insane demand. So, they might be able to raise price, but that's a little questionable there because if they raise price too much, then companies could just go AMD route or could go Nvidia route, right? Although they provide custom solutions, blah, blah, blah. I don't want to get, you know, into the uh weeds in regards to that. But the moral of the story is here, this is all the big issue. The companies are going to run out of money. Like, it's just mathematics. It's not complicated mathematics either. just run the numbers. Google can't just keep like increasing capex to infinity. It's not how it works. Nor can Meta, nor can Amazon, nor can OpenAI, nor can Anthropic. All these companies are going to run out of money. They don't have they can't just like they can't just say, "Oh, we're going to spend a trillion dollars next year." They literally can't. And so they're already getting close to maxed out capex budgets, which means next year, if they increase it all, it's going to be like very small amount cuz they don't have the wiggle room to just be like, "Oh, we're just going to spend 500 billion next year." You can't do that. These companies have been able to raise some money, but it's like$25 billion. You know, I've seen the numbers. It's like 20 20 to$30 billion these companies been able to raise. They can't just go out there and raise. Oh, we're going to go raise uh 350 billion. Can't. So, you know, and then do you want to be $350 billion in debt in one year? And then what are you going to do? Another 350 the next year, 400 the next year. Now you're $700 billion in debt. Of course not. That's just, you know, you you're not even making close to the profits for that. So, and the stocks would crash beyond belief. Like Meta would go down like 70% if they did something stupid like that. So, >> and Josh's point about Alphabet earnings, do you think these moves hold? >> I do. I do. And I think all all that's what's transpired thus far, this is a matter of positioning from my standpoint. Obviously, the socks or the SMH, what whichever index you've been on the semi side have run to to Josh's point, I mean, they've been parabolic runs that we've seen in the first half. And it is healthy to see other sectors participating like healthcare, financials, industrial starting to move. Um, and I think to Joe's point, if you're not in there, this is a potential opportunity because to your to your point, Leslie, at the top of the show, you know, 48% of earnings growth is going to come from the semiconductor index going forward. So, um, there's clear visibility on what those profits look like. Capex is not going to slow down. You're going to hear that, uh, from Google tomorrow. They'll reaffirm and potentially raise. I think you're going to hear that from most of the hyperscalers. So, I think that is not a place to ignore. And this kind of disruption that we've seen over the last couple weeks, I think present an opportunity if you're not there. >> All right, let's get in this next one around oil prices and more >> out war in the Middle East and a warning from a Houthi rebels in Yemen that they were going to blockade Saudi Arabia. I thought we'd have a massive jump in oil prices. Brent WTI up less than 1% each. Is the market paying attention? >> The market is paying attention. The market is exhausted. I mean, aren't we all a little bit exhausted by what was happening? >> I think that we starting to see I think some people were long into the sell-off and so as oil prices have started to come up, they've wanted to take off their positions. I haven't traded the market in a few months, so I can't be confident that that's what's happened. But I think that that was probably part of it. I think another part of it is there is still this um there were some headlines that Iran and the US had reached some sort of ceasefire for 6 days. I know that's a very brief time period, but there were some rumors about that as well starting to creep into the market. And so sometimes when there's smoke, there's fire. And so we may see something that establishes some sort of ceasefire in the coming days between Iran and the US or even um the Houthi standown. This is what I've been talking about in regards to the situation. Like the market just start stops caring, right? Like listen, you want to keep playing this game about like on again, off again. Oh, we're going to cease fire. Oh, we don't have a ceasefire. Oh, we got to see Oh, the market just stops paying attention after a while. And that's why it's hard to get oil prices to go higher right now. You already were at a level of peak fear that happened months ago. And I called that out and I said, "We already reached peak fear. That's it." And I made that call probably what is that 2 3 months ago. And that was around the time T-man said he made it some crazy statement. Um not like end of the world but something so dramatic like like wiping out civilizations or something like that. He said right and I said there it is. That's peak fear. Boom. That was an exact call and that was the moment everything, you know, turned the other way in regards to oil prices, in regards to the market. That was peak fear. And so once you already reach peak fear, you just can't freak it out anymore. And that's why you're not, you know, 1% move because this happened and that happened. It's nothing, right? So you have to get out of the exhaustion phase and then there could be actually an upcycle that starts even when it things start feeling more peaceful. That would be fun. That'll be interesting. That'll really that's gonna freak people out. That's gonna really freak people. >> You were to get some kind of interim agreement. The last ceasefire still had plenty of fire in it, Michelle. And I wonder if you see that even if there is an interim truce that that is going to be enough to give shippers and and crews enough confidence to try to transit through the straight of Hormuz or the Red Sea for that matter. I think we're getting to the point now where the straight of Hormuz and and the Red Sea for that matter need to have a new framework, right? The framework of the freedom of the seas, that framework is broken and it's going to be really hard to put that back into place. You're going to need to have a new framework that gives commercial vessels confidence to be able to pass through the boat either straight. And I think that's going to look something that's going to look like something much more structured than just military um deterrence sitting in the straight trying to move move ships through there. You need something that now gives the market some confidence and that's going to take a while to form. >> Does that structure include a toll booth Michelle? >> I think it does include a toll booth. I think it includes a framework that looks like a security framework. And of course, the fee is not going to be called a toll. It'll be called something like maritime security or something. It'll be rebranded into something that is a little more digestible. But I think certainly something needs to happen where these countries come together. Whether it's a coalition of the Arab nations or whether it's an international framework that looks similar to the IMO but isn't necessarily the IMO, but something needs to come about that will give some structure and a framework that will be a neutral party to allow commercial vessels to feel comfortable passing through the street. At this point, the confidence has been eroded either in the marketplace as well as in shippers. Well, can that come together more quickly than these exporters can find workarounds? Michelle, >> I think it can come together faster than the exporters can find work around. I don't think it can come quicker faster than uh the market starts to feel the pinch or starts to become constrained. And I think we I I don't know if we talked about this on the last time, but the real constraint is refined products where we're not really seeing refined products come out of the Middle East, but we also have Russian refined products that are constrained. So, while crude oil is certainly congested in some places, it has had some real herculean responses with Chinese imports dropping off um Saudi and the UAE being able to reroute some of their cruds in the SPR. So the crude oil prices have been able to see some sort of softness just from all all three of those responses, but refined products continue to remain significantly tighter than crude. >> They have our attention as well. We've got gasoline back above $4 on average and diesel at 510. Uh Michelle, with all of that said, you know, we're in the throws of hurricane season here and it wouldn't take a lot uh to change the narrative around crude oil supplies or refining capacity. And another headline that we woke up to today, the SPR has a 43day supply. Is that accurate based on your observations? And is that something investors should be worried about? It's obviously there for a crisis, but we use it in very different ways now. it. I don't know what 43 days of supply means exactly versus what? Like it does that mean 43 days of supply based on net imports, 43 days supply of global shortages? Well, I don't I don't necessarily know what the 43day supply means. What I do know is is we have drawn down 100 million barrels of the US SPR. That remains that there's 70 million barrels left remaining in the commitment from the US into the IEA SPR release that came out with the 400 million barrels. So, we still have and if we're releasing a million barrels a day, that's 70 days of SPR that can still come into the marketplace. I don't know if that 43 days is after. And how many does that is that a release of a million barrels a day or a release of >> I don't I don't there needs to be significantly more detailed around 43 days. It sounds dramatic, but it's probably it's probably the SPR has lots of problems, right? Structurally, it has lots of problems. you can't draw it down to zero but there I think that the US will meet their commitment of 172 million barrels and so we have 70 million barrels left that can be released >> well >> yeah I would say you know the moral of the story is here around oil price in my opinion cuz I mean where oil price goes in the next few weeks in the next few months who knows right it's at an exhausted kind of point you need to kind of work down that the moral of the story is the long-term trae trajectory at least in my opinion meaning over the next 5 years is much higher for oil prices in general right and so that's that's all I got to say that's all I got to say okay I appreciate you guys for joining me as always thank you so much for being here once again the private group is back open to accepting new members and applications that will be the pinned comment down there you click on that fill out a form let's see if we can get you access there and then other than that um I got this video out here hope you guys enjoy much love have a great day peace