Half Time Report - Stock picks (07/24) +Stock Market Analysis by Blue Cloud

Blue cloud trading [singing] through the night. >> Welcome [music] back to the channel everyone. In just a second, I'm going to play a few CNBC clips from today's episode of the halftime report. I'm going to pull up the charts and dive into the technicals of some of the mentioned stocks. We're going to look at the key support, resistance levels, momentum, and see if the price action actually backs up what the talking heads are saying. Hit that like button. Subscribe if you haven't already and let's roll the tape on the first clip. >> All right, thank you Carl. Thank you Leslie. Welcome to the halftime report. I'm Dominic Chewin for Scott Wapner on this Friday. Front and center this hour, bracing for a big week ahead for earnings with a third of the S&P 500 and four meggaap [music] names reporting their results. We're trading the setup for stocks in the days and weeks [music] ahead with the investment committee. They are today for the hour. Jim Leventhal, Kevin Simpson, Stephanie Link, and [music] Bin Talkington. Let's now check on the markets. We are seeing at least a little bit of positivity overall. Fractional gains for the Dow up about 352 points. The S&P is up about a half of 1% as well to just about 44 points to the upside. 7452 the last trade there. And the tech heavier NASDAQ composite up just about onetenth of 1% or may call it about 36 points to a level of 25,170. So that's the state of play right now. We look to close out the week on a slightly positive note. Let's go to the committee and first of all to Jim Leventhal directly to my left. >> Hi Dom. >> We talked yesterday about the market dynamic and then you kind of juxtapose it to today. It sure seems as though there isn't a feeling that there's a deeper decline ahead. There seems to be some stabilization. Is it something that people can feel comfortable about or is it too early in earning season to be able to make that determination? Well, I I think we have to remember where we are in the calendar kind of mid getting into late summer. And as much as I think seasonality is inane, should not exist. There's one seasonal pattern that just comes up year after year and it's this late summer swoon August into September. Again, should not happen. This is should be something that's arbitrageed away. But I want everybody to be aware of it. And more importantly, and to your question, Dom, I think we all have to invest through that. We have to look at what's going on with profits, what's going on with the economy, what's going on with the labor market, what's going on with capital expenditures, which I understand some people are nervous about. I think it's good for the economy. And putting that all together, I see a pretty good end to the year here from where we are now. So, just invest through whatever summer volatility happens regarding capex because I do think that is at least one if not the biggest uh topic duour certainly with Tesla and Alphabet yesterday. good results from Intel. Um I I think this capex is healthy. I know there is a growing contingent of people who think that all of these hyperscalers are locked in a prisoner's dilemma. Nobody dares to be the first one to pull back on the capex. That's what the bears case is and that at some point that's going to crack. I take the other side of that simply saying that these capital expenditures are profitable. They generate a return on investment. This is not the late 1990s and the fiber optic networks that were dark. This is a profitable venture and will be for the next few years. >> Kevin, what do you think? >> I like how Jim focused on earnings because I think that's the foundation of the bull market that we've been built on for the right reasons. If you look at the headlines and you think about the oscillation of all the narratives, it's pretty crazy because a few weeks ago we were worried about high inflation. Then we had CPI, PPI, that kind of went by the wayside. Some people may have been worried about the strength of the consumer in the face of said inflation. And then the banks reported and they told us about the health of the consumer. And then a few months ago we were worried about geopolitics, higher energy prices, tariffs, things that maybe um were Middle East focused. And then here we are again coming full circle. So, if we can keep the eyes laser focused on earnings and the actual data, I think that is the right way to approach not just next week's huge earnings season, but to Jim's point, the rest of the summer. >> Now, Stephanie, the the earning story we're going to get and explore in in more depth in just a moment here, but there is a macro state of play right now that's also an influence maybe on at least smallish in terms of the overall factor fundamentally versus some of these meggaap tech stock stories. one, we have tariffs that are back in focus yet again. They're going right back into play right now. We have elevated bond yields, right? I mean, we're talking about a 4.7% for the 10-year thereabouts. We are seeing higher oil prices. And by the way, WTI trading above 90 this week. That's a big deal for the consumer in that trade overall. So, how much do we have to reconcile the macro story with what's happening with some of these earnings reports and which is going to weigh out in terms of the overall influence? >> Well, sure, Don. We're we're on crude watch again because of the tensions increasing with Iran and inflation volatility is actually at COVID highs. I think that's extreme. Crude has rallied. You're right. It's up 34% from the lows, but it's still down 18% from the highs. And it can change at any given time. So we have to watch it. But that's the reason why bond yields are going higher. We thought we were at peak inflation a month ago and then all of a sudden you have oil rising pretty substantially. So the bond market doesn't like that. I get worried at the 10 year at 5% because that's when you normally see switchers. I do not worry about the consumer at all. Listen to what the banks had to say about the consumer. The big six and many other banks said the consumer is quite healthy and credit quality improved and in fact so did Capital One and by the way so did America American Express. So I think you want to use the any kind of volatility to be buying the financials to be buying consumer discretionary uh because those sectors even though they've done nicely as of late they're still lagging. So here are the positives though. weekly jobless claims the best since 1969. That's the year I was born. The AI food chain, we're going to talk about Alphabet and the capex numbers, but the food chain, the companies and sectors that benefit from all this capex that's going higher, it's very healthy and you're seeing it in the industrials, you're seeing in the power companies, utilities and REITs and real estate um and utilities rather. Um the earnings picture as the both gentlemen talked about earnings growth is running up 69%. Now only uh 15% of the companies have reported but it's very broad base. I know the big bulk is coming from tech and comm services they're having enormous quarters but materials are up 95% financials up 30% and healthcare and real estate and utilities up 15%. So very broad base. I like that. And if we do get the summer swoon that Jimmy was just talking about, I think you want to be buying the good earnings across the spectrum. >> All right, buying dips seems to be the consensus among many of the folks that we're talking to. And and by the way, Bin, I want to bring it up too because Bank of America's Michael Hart had some interesting commentary about this as well. We talked about the interest rate story and the crude oil story with regard to interest rates being a headwind for the markets overall. Michael Harden at BFA says he does not yet see the level of interest rates as a threat to the anything but bonds bull market in risk assets. This is a story that maybe says that we are in this mode of being able to buy dips despite the fact that interest rates remain elevated but from a historical perspective bin are not all that elevated compared to other bull markets in the past. >> They're not. But if you go back to the '9s, I mean, we had a 5 6% interest rate. But the difference is the rates 5 and 10 years before that were in the double digits. And so the perspective for the US economy is we had zero rates from forever for well over a decade and a half and then we jumped up to five and now inflation is here. And so I don't think you can really just go back into history and say they were high back then. It's because the base level was so low. I think that inflation is here. We're not going back to 2% it doesn't feel like anytime soon. That being said, I think that that 5% on the 10-year, I think, you know, we're 35 basis points away from that. I still think rates are well anchored. I do think that the the war that we have in Iran is in oil prices are pushing up those inflationary numbers. And hopefully this is not a forever war because especially as we're getting closer to midterms there does need to be some type of res re you know res resolution. And so I think the market has been well anchored right now. To me the issue is like investors have been much safer in the index levels. The NASDAQ equal weight RSP really the huge volatility under the market especially the NASDAQ is is to me the real stories with where you have you know Tesla which we'll talk about which has just fallen off a cliff. Meanwhile, Apple is up 3% today. So, I still think investors, you know, obviously Kevin and I are talking our book if we start talking about covered calls, high volatility covered calls, the indexes to me, uh, you want to have exposure there because this individual name, especially in the hyperscalers, to me, the jury is still out how this all plays out. >> What do we think, Jim? >> Well, look, I I think it's wise wise of us to talk about the tenure. We have to at 470. You know, a few weeks ago was at 430. I think though Brin just did put it into perspective that if you look over the last three years, this is still kind of in the middle to upper of the range where it's been roughly four to 5% on the tenure. So we're not in nosebleleed territory above 5% is where I get worried. But I think there's also a point that we're all kind of touching on here and it plays directly to the tenure which is economic strength. I don't know if our folks in the control room who are awesome have access to the Croup uh economic surprise index but it's nicely positive. So yes, the 10-year is reflecting that there are some inflationary pressures, but it's also reflecting that the economy is strong, and I just don't want to lose sight of that fact as we wisely pay attention to the 10-year, but let's put it into that perspective. >> Now, Stephanie, I want to go back to you because you mentioned about the earning strength and and the momentum that we are seeing. We know that the interest rate story is one that is signaling perhaps there is a little bit of robustness under the underneath the surface. There could be some inflationary threat. the jobs market is still trying to stabilize and find its footing, but these are all setups going into what will be the busiest week of earning season uh this this quarter. And I want to know whether or not the setup in your mind for the markets more broadly speaking are ones that we think are good for some of the big most influential reports that are going to come out over the course of the next two weeks. >> Oh, I mean I think Meta and Amazon are are the big ones and Microsoft of course too. And uh I think the biggest question mark uh out there is how much are they going to increase capex because they are and so we just need to get ready for that. Um in for meta they're guiding 125 to 145 billion in capex spend for this year. That's absolutely going higher and there's rumors that they're going to grow 2027 like over 200 billion for next year. Amazon they're already at 200 billion. They're going higher as well. But here's the thing. The the the capexes are going higher and we don't like to see negative free cash flow, but the fundamentals are really quite good. I mean, Meta is going to post a 26% ad growth number. Now, it's down from 33% the prior quarter, but that's because they have a 6 percentage point uh tougher comp, but their AI improvements are are are helping their business in terms of targeting, in terms of ranking, um in terms of creative tools. And so the momentum is there in the business and it's only going to get better as they spend more. I don't want them to spend more, but they're going to. Amazon on the other hand, you're going to see an acceleration in terms of AWS because well, Alphabet gave us that hint, right? But AWS is they grew 28% last quarter, but they doubled their capacity. And this doesn't even include the anthropics hundred billion dollar expansion. So their their backlog is running at about $350 billion in AWS alone. And it's just money that is just crazy uh positive in terms of the business momentum. Retail I think they also have upside too especially on the margin side. So the fundamentals are going to be good. The capexes are going to be higher. Where do you want to go? You want to go to the food chain like I talk about all the time. You want to go to the industrial companies, the picks and shovels, the power companies, utility companies, the grid companies, because those companies are posting really good numbers so far, and I expect the visibility is only getting better as backlogs continue to go up in those sectors. >> All right, Meta is one I want to kind of home in on a little bit here as well because Stephanie does own Meta and and Kevin, I want to go to you for this one. You also own Meta shares as well. We've got some interesting analyst commentary coming out ahead of kind of what could be a massive catalyst for this. And this is the team over at Deutsche Bank who today have trimmed their target price for those shares at Meta Platforms to 800 bucks. It was 810. So a small trimming, but they reiterate their buy rating over there. We expect Meta, they say, to deliver another strong quarter with advertising revenues likely approaching the high end of guidance as improving return on ad spend continues to attract incremental budget share. So that's an interesting story. We think that Alphabet's second quarter 26 results, especially the study Q growth in search, accelerating YouTube revenues are a positive read through and will carry through for meta platforms as well. Do you feel positive about Meta as we approach that big earnings catalyst? >> I feel positive on everything that was included in that note, Tom. I feel positive about everything that Stephanie said with respect to Meta, but my concern is the spend because this market now is not just giving away um a freebie when it comes to the capex. So, we learned with Google, we learned with Alphabet that what you spend matters, but what you're going to generate from that spend matters even more. Now, I think that the ad number is going to blow it off the chart. And and really, that's the key to the business model, but if the street doesn't like the spend, then the stock's going to get slammed. So, I'm of the mindset that it's going to be a good report, that it's going to be a positive reaction, but I'd be a little bit nervous just on the reaction of Alphabet. And if Meta does sell off as a result of that, I'll be in and buy. I'll be a buyer. Well, you while we have you because we want to alert the the audience here to a trade as well. Because of the Alphabet weakness that we saw in the context of the AI capex spending numbers, you have actually gone ahead and made a transaction with Alphabet. Let's talk a little bit about why. >> So, this is pretty exciting, Don. This is the first time that we've owned Alphabet in our flagship dividend portfolio. And what I was trying to say before about the hyperscalers next week dispersions creating opportunity and this was a big sell-off. And I think the street overreacted to this sell-off in particular because of some of the numbers under the hood. The revenues were up 24% year-over-year, but specifically Google Cloud surged 82%. Now, people are worried about the guide, they're worried about the capex, but if you look at everything that they're doing, search, Google Cloud, Gemini, YouTube, all of the AI things, not to mention Whimo, I I think that there's an incredible opportunity here as an investor. Now, why did we buy this for the first time? In April of 2024, Alphabet announced a dividend for the first time in its history. Now, we didn't just jump in and buy it at that point, but over the past 6 months, they've had a 22% increase on that dividend. So, we look for dividend growers. I think it's an a maturation of the company, similarly to why we had purchased Nvidia for the first time lately. These are not stocks that are new, but they're very new to the type of the portfolio that we manage. So, we have a small position in Alphabet. I think yesterday was a great buying opportunity and to my point earlier if Meta pulls back I think you'll have an opportunity there as well. >> All right Brenn what do you think because I I I I know that you are in in in some of these mega cap type names but the story overall is one it does resonate now with certain other models and certain other factor type investors that they didn't resonate in before. So how does that make you feel about that mega cap trade? Well, I so I own Google. I own Apple. I own Tesla and Nvidia. But Google, I think it's really important. I own Google. I also look at the charts though. Google just broke the 200 day. That is not good. It needs to get right back above there. And I think to me as an investor, I still feel Google of the hyperscalers is without a doubt the most vertically integrated from TPUs all the way up to YouTube to execute and to ultimately win because I do think there's going to be winners and losers. And I question Meta, by the way, just because their market cap is the smallest. And I'm not sure outside of monetizing a advertising, which they will do. They're crushing it. What they're doing with all of the other capex, I don't I don't know that. But with Google, I think investors do need to understand. I went back since 2015. 2015, they've had positive free cash flow. They've now just gone negative. And so for you know well over a decade investors have been pricing these companies as we talked about capital light high margins and now they're not only issuing equity which I hate that they're also doing debt and then they're also going now negative free cash flow. So they're pushing all of their chips in in terms of how people have valued these companies. And so I do think we all as investors need to look at the market. The technicals are getting worse on most of these companies from a technical perspective. And yes, maybe the fundamentals are still very strong, but to me that negative free cash flow, the equity issuance, the bond issuance, I do think there's a limit from a stock perspective that the market will allow. So, I'm still in it. I love Google, but I'm not feeling great about the trajectory of the stock over the next two quarters. >> All right. While we have you, I'd like to just follow up really quickly as well because a slew of you guys, three of you guys actually own shares of Apple. We had mentioned it before. You we talked about this idea, this notion that Apple had kind of seen this maybe phantom stealth type rally in spite of all of the weakness that we are seeing generally in megaap technology. Um I also want to point out that we do have an analyst action today to kind of provide a little bit of that catalyst and these are analysts over at Baird. They reiterate their buy equivalent outperform rating. They raised their target price modestly to 330 bucks. It was 310 before. In one of the reasons why they talk about the expectation of solid quarterly results driven by strong iPhone growth and steady services trends, memory pricing remains a daunting headwind. Though price increases should ease the pressure. Valuation looks rich to pass trends suggesting much may be priced in. We expect the strong free cash flow, upcoming product cycle, and early positive comments on Siri AI to support the stock. What do you think about that, Brandon? Is it is there a reason for you to feel comfortable about Apple relative to the rest of that mega cap tech trade? >> I feel comfortable with Apple because you know what you're going to get. To my point about Google, it's like Google was this company with this type of balance sheet for well over a decade. Well over a decade. And now it's doing something different to grow in the future. I get it. But with Apple, you know what? You know what you're going to get. I think we should retire like the super cycle word about Apple. I think they have way too many phones out there for us to have a super cycle. But their revenues are growing. The iPhone 17 to me was a home run. I think that the next phones, well, once again, the 17 has AI in it. The 18 going on will have AI. More and more people will want to have just the cool services, the ecosystem. And I feel really confident. I do not want a device from Open AI. I do not want a device from Anthropic or even or even Tesla. I'm very comfortable with my Apple phone. And I think from a consumer perspective, they're just going to sit back and just win this because we all are going to continue to use their devices. So, I think that's just I don't think it's stealthily going higher. I think it's like in our face pretty much going higher every day. saying I think it will especially going into next week as we're going to hear Amazon and Meta are just going to spend just like Google >> in the on the other end of the spectrum folks besides that Mag 7 trade on the Apple side is Tesla there was an earnings catalyst for that um I I know Bren that you are one I'm going to go to Kevin for this one here the Tesla reaction has been interesting on track for its worst week by the way since March of 2020 going to the pandemic era at this this point here it is not as big an influence anymore as as it once was. But the Tesla story, is it indicative at all of some of the risk appetite or expectations around just what these companies need to deliver to power that next leg higher if there is one there to be had in the coming months? >> I I I think it does and I think it's very healthy. You know, for years this company was able to move higher on any hope, any promise, you know, any crazy idea into the future. And now you're more of a demanding Wall Street and more of a demanding investor who's saying, you know, show me. Let's see a show me story with earnings. And this stock is something that is really years into the future. It's not a today's story. But when you have the type of earnings report that it did, I think it justifies this type of stock reaction. And I'm a little surprised that the retail trader hasn't come in and bought up some of the dip that you were talking about earlier, Dom, but I think that this is a story not for again one or two quarters. It's one or two years. It's robotics, it's energy, it's not the car company, but we've said that so many times on the desk. But if it is that, if it is a robotic story and an energy story, you're making this an investment for the longer term. You're not hoping to trade this in the short term. If that's the case, let's talk a little bit about whether or not that short-term to medium-term story plays out for the chip stocks. And and I I I want to do this because this is one of those opportunities that could be a very profitable one if you bought the dip. I don't pretend to know where this chip trade is going, but it's fallen by enough where people are getting some attention from it. Stephanie, the chip trade, is it one where you feel as though this is one that's fundamentally okay for you to start nibbling at right now? And do you have to be a stock picker like yourself to do it? Or can we just feel comfortable saying maybe the SMH, the socks, some other ETF, maybe even DRAM can be enough for us to kind of get that exposure? Or do we have to be picky about picking bottoms in these stocks? >> I mean, I I always want to be picky. I always want to find a a good company on sale. And so in the last couple of weeks, I've actually bought Nvidia. I bought Nvidia the for the first time. You know, I've been I've been an owner of Broadcom for many, many years, and it's been an absolute home run. Never owned Nvidia. The stock has lagged the group by 53% year-to date. It's trading at 18 times forward estimates. It's the number one C GPU company in the world. And yeah, they're going to lose some share, but it's going to be dominant for years to come. They've got a new product cycle, great free cash flow. So I started adding to that. I bought a little piece of Micron. How can you not own something in memory when you're hearing from someone like IBM say their customers are deferring their purchase plans because they're buying memory and they're buying servers and storage. That's the area where you want to buy. But by the way, I do think IBM is a buy. We can talk about that later. But I do think you want to be particular. I recently sold Marll cuz I made over a 100% in like a month and a half, which is crazy to me. So, I think you want to pick your spots, Dom, but I think that there are spots to be had. >> Okay, let's go kind of rapid fireesque. We got a few a couple minutes left here to kind of go through the earnings setup for next week. We know the names that are going to come up in this process. Jim, I'll start with you. Which of those big earnings reports coming up next week is the best setup in your mind? >> Uh, to me, Amazon comes to mind. Um, I think on a historical valuation basis, it's very, very cheap. I think we'll see great growth from Amazon Web Services. And I'm sorry, I forget if it was Bin or Stephanie. I think it was Bin was talking about Alphabet and all the multiple shots on goal. Obviously, the same thing applies to Amazon. Maybe they don't have their own large language model, but they have chips. They have Amazon Web Services. They have the retail business, they have the logistics. So, that's where that's where my chips are. >> And Bin to you, what's your favorite setup of those big earnings reports coming up next week? >> I mean, Apple to me, no-brainer. We know what we're going to get. No surprises. Microsoft got to be a bunch of landmines in there. Meta, Amazon as well. So I mean to think you want a straight straightforward setup, Apple's Apple's the one to pick. >> All right. And what about you, Kevin? >> I think the most important one is Microsoft. To Brin's point, there are so many situations, so many problems underneath the hood that we have to worry about. We saw what happened with IBM. We know where the problem lies with software. Microsoft has to come out and prove something with the guidance that this stock shouldn't be left for dead. So, I think it's the most important one. >> All right, last word to you, Stephanie. >> I think you want to own the derivative plays of the capex going higher and that's the picks and shovels companies. >> All right, so there's the earnings setup for next week on Mega Cap Tech. Thank you guys very much for the committee for that. Coming up here, Kevin's actually making a move in cyerspace. He'll go through the trade coming up next. Halftime is back in 2 minutes. Keep it right here. >> Hey everybody, welcome to Blue Cloud Trading. I'm George. It is Friday, July 24th, 4:35 p.m. We're going to take a look at the stocks that they discussed on the halftime report today. It's going to be in two segments. First segment, we're going to cover about 14 stocks and ETFs that you see here that they just talked about. And then we'll show the second clip from CNBC from the halftime report, today's episode, of course, and then we'll take a look at those stocks and ETFs. And then after that, we'll take take a look at the SPY, the Q's, the Russell, the Dow. All right. So, let's uh take a look at this first list. We're going to go run through these very quickly. I just want to show you guys how the technicals look for these specific stocks in comparison to what were you know the the talking heads were suggesting basically. So, Apple today up above the 31740. I mentioned yesterday that we broke through that uh that was on on Thursday and here we are on Friday. Now the interesting thing is it's uh it came down to that level down to the three close to the 317 and then the the bulls stepped right back in. So there's a lot of uh actually volatility [clears throat] here in Apple moved up. It dropped towards the end of the day but overall it's still looking very bullish like Apple and on the daily and on the weekly. Again, the technology sector is not a particularly strong sector right now, but uh this stock is outperforming its peers. Here's RSP, the Invesco S&P 500 equal weight ETF. On the weekly chart, it is still holding up above that 9 period. That's the green line that you see there. So, that 9 period is called the Tenkinson. It's part of the Ichimoku indicator. And uh what basically the way that that's plotted is by taking the high the low of each of the last nine candles dividing it by two. So it's the midpoint of each candle and that's how you plot that. The one below is the 26. Same way midpoint of the last 26 period. So it's the slower one. All of the elements here are in the correct order. We've got the sangu span A the light colored blue line is above the sink span B the purple line on the cloud. So we have a bullish cloud. We've got the Chica span, which is the current price projected 26 periods ago. All right, above the candle 26 periods ago. So, that's very bullish, too. I like what I'm seeing here on the weekly. I like what I'm seeing here on the daily as well. It didn't quite exactly close above the the conversion line or tenkinson. It was uh under it by four pennies, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt here that it's probably going to bounce on Monday based on the fact that we see the ADX ticking up here. The green line is above the red line. So I think the there's a higher probability that is in fact going to continue to the upside on Monday unless some crazy stuff happens over the weekend. You never know, right? The markets can go crazy if some really negative uh things take place. Uh the geopolitical stuff for example XLF the financials ETF. Um so this one here is uh just broke back above the nine period. So it had a little pullback here. Very short brief pullback. It's up 086% on the daily chart. Looks good on the weekly chart. It's still holding under this weekly candle. It goes back to January 9th of 2026. We haven't been able to surpass that level. So, this ETF here is still, in my opinion, not something that you want to be adding to your portfolio until we break and close above it on a weekly weekly chart. So, since it didn't happen this week, I would wait until next week and let let's see if it happens because of course during the week it may in fact pierce that level. It may get above it like it did here the prior week. But it then you see the bears pushed it right back under. All right. Now, the rest of these guys do not have a blue flag and that's a reason. Oh, let me show you guys the daily chart. There's the daily chart for XLF. Now, here's the rest of these stocks and ETFs are do not have a blue flag because there's something technically wrong on either the weekly chart or the daily chart. So, let's take a look at Amazon for example. Okay, so one of the in one of the rules of this indicator is that price should okay price should not should always be above the cloud if you're considering an entry point. And that's because it's a safe zone. It's it's basically telling us that hey, this decline or this consolidation area is now starting to change, right? changed changed its direction and sentiment and right now it's becoming negative negative sentiment and in fact this is the second day Amazon closed under the dotted yellow line which is the 200 day simple moving average so I'd hold off on Amazon obviously Google is also for the second day under okay okay under the 200 after the earnings announcement it had that big gap down it did move up 065% but not the time to be adding positions here as far as I'm concerned uh You've got Meta also dropping onto the cloud. Okay, so the majority of these uh Mac 7 stocks are not doing well. It's just Apple really that's that's um fired up. Uh let's look at Marll. This is tech the semiconductor stock. I mean it's been in a decline for a little while. So we had a double top up here. We can see the lower high here. Another lower high. Another low. A high has just developed. So we've got ourselves a downward channel. When that's in in effect, you really can't predict when it's going to end. And due to because of that, it's probably be in your best interest to stay out of lean long positions in this or adding new long positions here. Now, if you're a longer term trader and you might be using the weekly chart, okay, so um what does it what does that look like? Well, at least this week, you can see it actually held its own. So, the prior week, the week ending July 17th, it had closed at these levels. This week it actually held up. So there is a possibility that Marll could bounce and recover here. But the problem is we don't have enough data and so you don't want to be adding positions as far as I'm concerned. Here's the again that daily chart and it's down 7.21% today. How about Micron also in a decline holding up at least above the cloud. I'm sorry it entered the cloud. I take that back but holding up above the nine period. So above that green line. Nvidia is inside the cloud, still inside this downward channel. So, no on that uh stock as well. SMH down 3.27% today. All right. Also starting to develop this short-term sort of downward channel. SMH is a semiconductor ETF. It's inside this box still. I wouldn't do anything here. And Tesla also showing a lot of weakness down 2.08%. You can see the big gap down that happened on Thursday. And then um you know on Wednesday sorry after hours or in pre-market and boom it continued. So I would stay out of Tesla. XLB is the materials ETF. That one is um basically just eating its head right above that cloud. But you can see the the slower moving average that 26 period. The red line is still above it. I would hold off on XLB the ETF. XLI is the industrials ETF. It showed some more strength today. Was up 4%. the the directional movement index became positive when the positive DI9 crossed above the negative DI9 down here. But uh you know the problem here is the the faster moving average the tenken the 9 period is still under the slower one. So we don't have a perfect uh situation here on the daily. If you look at the weekly chart it does hold up quite nicely actually. Right? So it's a much more bullish uh chart on the weekly. So we got XLB on the weekly chart is under the 9 period just so you know. Uh XLI industrials on the weekly chart is above the 17930. So that's also looking bullish more bullish this week. Industrials and uh there it is again on the daily and then XLK is inside the cloud. All right, let's look at the weekly. That's technology. All right, so technology has been dropping for a bit. All of this can certainly change very quickly, right? So, it's a tight tight sort of um consolidation that's happened here on the weekly, which leads me to believe there's a higher probability it's going to be a bull flag scenario type situation here. And once we break above these levels, we're probably going to see a move to the upside. But right now, we don't have it. And uh it needs to prove itself, right? So, until that happens, I would hold off on XLK. Guys, let's get back into the second clip from CNBC and then I will go over the following stocks that they talk about. Okay, and of course the indices as well. So, let's get back into it. Welcome back to the halftime report. [music] We got another committee move to hit on and Kevin, it's you again and this time it's with regard to cyerspace and cyber security and PaloAlto. >> Yeah, Dom, this is in our growth portfolio. We started adding to this back in March after the SAS geton or SAS apocalypse whatever happened. I was really of the opinion that the market was getting it completely wrong with cyber security with more and more LLMs open AI anthropic all the things that were happening. I felt like we needed more cyber security not less and certainly we were rewarded handsomely for that the way these have traded now [clears throat] most recently with open AI and the way that it's invading Hugaboo or whatever the website. Thank you so much. Um I I I think that the stock sold [laughter] off a little bit and gives us an opportunity to get back in because again the thesis doesn't change these cyber companies whether it's Crowdsource Crowd Strike excuse me or PaloAlto they need to integrate the AI to be able to defend against it and I'm very passionate about it. I know that these stocks have moved really high really fast but I think you need to have them in your portfolio. >> And Stephanie I mean this was that the Hugging Bear headlines were straight out of an AI kind of sci-fi novel, right? about some some computer model [laughter] jumping out of its quarantine test environment and then hacking another company. You don't do that on your own. Now AI can do it on its own. So I mean with regard to you, it's Crowd Strike and it's PaloAlto. Is cyber something that gets propelled because of these headlines this week? >> Oh 100%. Anything that's tied to AI is going to need more cyber security. Cyber security, as I've said it many times, is going to be much bigger than AI because of these problems. AI is not secure and we're coding. We're doing 50% more coding using AI and that's even more unsecure. So I think that these stocks are definitely uh you have to have them in your portfolio for sure, but I do think that they have rerated and they are up a lot. So I think to Kevin's point like use the pullbacks to be adding to the best in breed and Crowd Strike and PaloAlto are the top two. I will say that this company has PaloAlto has 10% market share of a $300 billion mark total addressable market that's growing in a huge way. As I just mentioned, their free cash flow growth is growing 27%. Their net new next generation security annualized recurring revenue, that's the that's the thing that this stock trades on, grew 60% last quarter with acquisitions and 28% organically. You so you're getting the growth, you're getting the execution. So, you pick your spots and you buy on the dips. >> Brenn, you have been in the Global X cyber security ETF, ticker Bug Bug, for quite some time now. It's on pace, by the way, for its worst week going back to April. But to Stephanie's point, it's on pace for its first down week out of the last five. There's been some near-term, medium-term love for cyber. Do you feel comfortable with that near-term momentum continuing? >> Yeah. Well, I've owned this for multiple years. I agree with everything Steph said. This is a secular trend. This probably is bigger than AI because as we saw with hugging face um and open AI that is just crazy. And so I think these are secular winners. I'm doing it via Bug. I'm not going to get shaken out of an individual name. So Bug owns Octa, Fortnet, Paulo, um you know, Crowdstrike, etc. So I won't get the highs of the best ones, but I also won't get the lows. And I feel really confident that I can stay in this long term just because I have a basket of these names. But yes, I think people should buy these on dips because it is clearly going to be a secular winner. >> All right. And one more point to make that's outside of cyber but is in software overall. Oracle, one of those big names that we're talking about in the news today because Oracle has now signed a 10-year software contract with the Pentagon worth up to around $7 billion. The Pentagon announced this deal on Thursday. the contract with Oracle. This is a big deal for a company that's been taken well off of its highs. Does the Oracle trade feel like one to you that can be a turnaround trade for the back half of this year? >> Yeah, very much so. Okay, so I'm very much a believer, Dom. Um, let's go through the two big risks for Oracle. One is the backlog. 636 odd billion. Roughly half of that is Open AI. Okay, maybe Open AI only comes through for half of that. If that's the case and that backlog goes down to say 500 billion, that's more than the next three years worth of projected revenue for Oracle and I, you know, who knows how open as AI is going to come in. But my point is the market is discounting something very drastic in terms of those uh uh contract obligations going forward. The other issue is of course the debt level, the negative free cash flow. Well, you get a deal like this from the Pentagon, and what I'll tell you is the Pentagon and the government is not worried that Oracle is somehow not going to have the financial wherewithal to see it through the 10-year contract. And frankly, neither do I. Now, if you're a portfolio manager, and I am, you have to have space for something like this that's more volatile, potentially a lot higher return. You have to have the stable stocks like the JP Morgans and the Apples, but you have to have room for something fun that could do a really good job like Oracle, I think, will. All right, there's the cyber trade and Oracle all wrapped up into that block. Thank you very much for that. Up next, we got much. Do you have to be a stock picker when it comes to energy bin for you? >> Well, I mean, I own individual names. I own energy transfer, Viper, like the mineral rights. I think that you want to have this yield. I think the yield component is very important. I don't think it was on people's dance cards that Energy was going to have this great year. It did not do well in 2024 and 2025, but if you had that yield component, you could just still collect that income. And I think everyone now knows energy is incredibly important. And so I like buying the RSPG, XLE, have that diversification, but ultimately also like the mineral rights because you get that really nice 6, 7, 8% yield as you do also on the toll companies like the pipeline names like Energy Transfer. >> All right. All right. Welcome back. has hit some committee stocks on the move today. American Express the worst performer in the Dow today after a revenue miss. Kevin, you own it. >> Yeah, and I think this is saying everything that I'm talking about with respect to guidance and expectations. Their numbers were very very good, but the price had rallied into the quarter and looking at it, I mean essentially the revenues were in line, a slightness. EPS was was up. Their top-end consumer was amazing. The aspiring Gen Z, Gen X platinum card was up. But when you talk about a guy and a little revenue miss, you're going to be punished. And I think that's what the precursor is, Dom, for the rest of earning season. >> All right, let's stick with the financials here. Bank of America is hiking its dividend by 14% to an annualized rate of just about a buck 28. Steph, you own it. >> Yeah, I mean, and the profit growth in the quarter is up 27%. The ROCE up 17%. And the fundamentals are very, very strong. This isn't really that surprising, Dom, because they were the only one that didn't announce a dividend hike when the stress test came out, but I'll take it. And in addition to the dividend increase, they've got $22 billion left on their authorization to buy back stock uh out of the 40 billion that they announced. >> All right, let's turn now to the earnings setup for next week. Very busy week for stocks that are not mega tech. Jim, two of these names are healthcare related. reporting next week in Astroenica and ABV. What do you think? >> Uh what I think is healthcare dom to use your term earlier has had a stealth rally over the last few months and pharmaceuticals in particular. I like both of these names. Abby is just a warhorse. Year in and year out it produces. It's had a little bit of a lackluster return over the last 12 months on competitive concerns about uh Sky Rizzy and Renvoke, but those are fading. This is an absolute ad right now at 15 times earnings, 3% dividend yield. Astroenica even more interesting because they had a heart drug fail its latest stage trials two weeks ago. Stock went down. That gives the entry point. This is also 15 times earnings, 2% dividend yield. The space is a good space to be in. I like both these names. >> All right. From financials to healthcare to real estate, CBRE Group also reporting next week. Bin, you own this one as well. >> I do. two two earnings quarters ago, the stock dropped from about 170 to about 135 because somehow the market thought AI is going to take over uh all of the transactions that they do, which makes no sense. They are taking advantage of AI. This company consistently reports 25% year-over-year earnings growth. The market's expecting 24%, so really solid. They are in the epicenter of these data center transactions and so I think it's a good setup. The stock's starting to recover. Um, so I think it looks good going into earnings next week. >> All right, non- tech earnings setup there. Thanks very much for those. Stay with us here. Final trades are coming up on the halftime report. All right, welcome back. We're back with our final trades, Bren, we're going to start with you. >> Uh, GPIQ. It's one of my favorite covered call ETFs besides Kevin's. It sells calls on the NASDAQ. Typically only 20 to 40% covered. Good way to play tech. >> The NASDAQ with income. All right. How about you, Steph? IBM down 30% from its high, 17 and a half times earnings. The reaction to their negative pre-announcement is way overdone relative to where the number settled out. I like it here. >> Buying the dip in big blue Kevin >> Google search remains one of the greatest businesses ever created and AI is making it more valuable. >> And let's finish off with Jim. >> Yeah, sometimes we can hit the easy button and I think that's Amazon. I know earnings are coming up but at this valuation I think it's a buy right here. >> All right, markets are positive fractionally. So that does it for us here on the halftime report. The exchange with Brian Sullivan starts right now. Have a great weekend >> and welcome to the exchange everybody. Happy Friday. I am Brian Kelly is off today. She will be back on Monday after a rough week. A pretty nice turn today at least for the industrials. We are right now just at or near the highs of the day [music] at least on the Dow and the S&P. Real estate communications, consumer staples, some of the leaders. The MAG7 and the NASDAQ [music] though they're mixed bag. Big earnings from Intel, not enough to bring stability to a volatile trade. Apple and Netflix are [music] higher. Tesla down again. Some good news around oil prices a little bit lower today, but overall still up 20 bucks a barrel [music] since the July 3rd low. What's not easing? The price you pay at the pump. The national average [music] now at $410. A 12centent jump in just a week. All right. Hi everybody. We have got a big hour ahead and let's kick it off with your money and what may be a makeorb breakak week next week because not only is next week the busiest week overall for earnings, look at all those names that we're showing you there. It's also arguably the most important week for earnings because you've got Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon all reporting. Oh, and by the way, you've also got a Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday as well. And who knows exactly where the Iran war might be in just five days. Joining us right now to talk about all of it is Ellen Hazen, chief market strategist and portfolio manager at FL Putinham Investment Management. Ellen, it's good to have you on the program again. We're not looking past today to next week, but right now, what are the most one or two important things on your radar? >> Well, it's great to see you, Brian. Uh, thanks for having me. So what we're looking at more than anything else is number one AI hyperscaler capex because that is still going up and that is driving so much of the economy and so much of those earnings estimates right now and number two of course the price of oil and the degree to which that flows through to higher gas prices at the pump and then whether or not that ends up impacting the consumer hasn't happened too much yet but those are the most important things we're watching and of course the way we monitor those one way is just through earnings estimate revisions >> and how have those come in so far? >> Earnings have been great so far. We've had about a quarter of the S&P reporting. We've had 70% revenue beats, 80% earnings beats. It looks like earnings are going to come in at over 20% year-over-year growth, which is also going to set us up for over 20% year-over-year growth for the full year. And even next year looks pretty solid as well. So, so far so good. Still early days, but uh very happy with what we've seen so far. >> You know, it's interesting because we've got three of your picks and I love getting stock picks. I kind of colloquially call it opportunity Friday. Why not? Two of them are directly tied to the consumer. You've got Brinker International. Ticker is Eat. Their main company is Chili's, the restaurant chain. And you've got Target as well. These are direct consumer names which I believe should be impacted by consumer spending and the price of gas. You're obviously at least not now, Ellen, not that worried. >> I think that there, in fact, I would look at it the other way. there might be upside from here if oil comes down, if peace breaks out, if the hostilities decline, and if gas prices come down. So, I think that we're already pricing in a little bit of hesitancy. But if you look, for example, at Brinker International, they're growing earnings solid double digits, maybe even as high as 20%, and it's trading for 15 times earnings. They're gaining market share. They're putting up over 6% comps. It's really hard to see how a stock like that doesn't work and any lower gas prices would be a bonus. If we look at Target, they had four straight years of declining earnings estimates. But in the last four months, they've started to turn up again as the merchandising has really taken off and you're seeing positive estimate revisions, very reasonably valued, and that's a a franchise company that has a long history of management execution, and it looks as though they're they're exiting their long winter. >> I want to go back to Brinker for a second. And you said lower gas would sort of just be a bonus. So even with gas where it is right now, Ellen, doesn't sound like you're that concerned. >> Of course, we all want lower gas prices, but right now, if you look at Chili's, right, that is a value casual dining uh opportunity for the consumer and comps have been solid. And as you look at their record over the last several quarters, it's been beaten raised, beaten raised. The traffic is there, the ticket is there, and so of course we would rather see the consumer in even better shape than are even in a a neutral gas environment. They are executing. I think that bodess well for the stock. >> Yeah. You know what? And McDonald's hitting like multi-year lows. You wonder if people are shifting to more the fast casual than fast food. We mentioned Target as well. I want to go on. Target no doubt gets a lot of its stuff from a rail company, a Union Pacific. Another one of your picks. You think pricing power is finally back for a lot of these railroads. How come? >> I'm just looking at the numbers. All right. I'm looking at estimate revisions and I'm looking at what companies are saying on their conference calls and finally pricing is turning around. So will it continue remains to be seen. But as we look at it again, rail is very igopolistic, generally good margins as long as you have pricing. I think the declines in coal volumes are long behind us at this point. So volume is okay and pricing is getting better. And of course that drops straight to the bottom line. >> And again, I'm not trying to talk my book here as the energy person, but I would say that that this is a diesel fuel in some ways related play as well. Higher fuel, lower margins, I think. >> Well, well, that's true. That's true. Um, of course it helps that we are energy independent in this country, so that helps a little bit with the fuel costs, but that's a that's a risk. If we see Brent go to 120 the way I think Goldman called out recently or or even higher then of course all of these are at risk. I don't know if that's going to happen but I think that what we've seen over the last four months has been on again off again on again off again. Right now oil's at the high. I think it's more likely to bounce down for a little while than to go even higher from here absent an escalation of the hostilities. >> Okay. So outside of that we got Brinker, we got Target, we got Union Pacific. I love it. Next week, all the earnings we just referenced. Also though, the Federal Reserve, Kelly and I, will be in DC special 2-hour show on Fed Day on Wednesday. >> Right. >> I don't think we're going to get a rate hike, but what do I know? What do you think? >> I think that I agree with you. Uh I think you it could go the other way. We could see a hike, but I don't think it's likely to. I think that so far what chair wars is attempting to do is to establish his inflation fighting cred. However, he has bought himself some time with these task force forces and the labor market looks healthy there. So there's no reason to do anything because of that and of course the key question is what happens with inflation and one of the task forces is looking at inflation and whether or not we're measuring it correctly. There are arguments to be made that inflation might fade in the second half of the year. First of all, because year-over-year rent increases have already declined and that will be factored in. And also because the government is recalculating the PCE formula and that's going to just mathematically because of the adjustments cause PCE to decline a little bit, personal consumer expenditures, which is of course the rate that the the Fed prefers to look at. So, I think that the most likely outcome is that they will give it some time. And I'm very much looking for an update on how the task forces are doing and when he expects to hear final results. >> I guess no hike is the new cut. It kind of feels like where we are right now. Ellen Hayen, always love having you on. Thank you. Have a great weekend. >> Have a great weekend, Brian. >> All right. Thank you. All right. Now, let's hone in on the semiconductor sector because Intel today, it's down 5%. It's not getting any love at all for a big quarter. Company topping second quarter expectations. It reported its fastest revenue growth in 15 years and the stock is down almost 5%. Some of that weakness spreading across the group today. Broadcom, Micron, they are both lower. But remember folks, context is always key. And let's remember, Intel has already soared 161% this year. For more on all of this, let's bring in Stacy Rasg of Bernstein. Stacy, is that kind of the story? Listen, sales were great. I mean, they blew estimates away. Gross margin blew estimates away. Stocks down. Is that just because it's had such a big year or something else? >> Yeah. And it's maybe a little of both. And you have to remember, it's not just that it's down. It it was up, you know, 10% or so in the aftermarket at one point. So, it's like a 15 point swing off of where it was. and it was up that much at first because you're you're right like the numbers were really good. It was actually a fantastic uh quarter on a reported basis. Um I actually think it it's it's two things that are causing this. It's it's the capex outlook and some other comments they made that I I'll get to in a minute that relate. But um capex is is is going up and and it's really funny because if you fundamentally believe in the Intel story, capex going up should be a good thing for you. They they've been very clear they're not going to invest unless they think that they can utilize that capacity at a very high ROI. And they took the capex for for this year up to $20 billion. I think I think from up from 16 or so before. So 20 now. And all they said for 27 was it's going to go up like significantly in 27. So that's part of the problem. We don't know actually how much it's going to go up in 27. And capex stories in general this earning cycle of of the hyperscalers and some of the others have not been all that rewarded. So I think that's part of it. Well, let me stop there because I'm starting to feel a little bit like Yogi Barra, if you remember Yogi Bar, where he said it's deja vu all over again, right? I feel like we just talked about this, not you and I, but on this network like yesterday with Alphabet where basically they, you know, basically raised capital spending and the stock fell 5%, but we kind of established other people that if they didn't, if they cut spending estimates, it would have fallen >> even more. Like, is there a just right level here, Stacy? Look, look, you know, at the end of the day, you know, investors, we we want all the growth for free, right? And I want everything for free. It just doesn't happen like that in the real world. Like, if if you're going to grow, you have to invest. At least Intel, like I said, I you if you go back a few years, Intel was was much more um uh uh uh non-conservative on their outlook. It was they very much had an if we build it, they will come perspective and and that bit them. And you can see it on the stock chart here. That's part of the reason it was trading where it was. the new Intel under Lip Lipu the the new CEO um is is much more cautious. They've been very clear that they will not invest if they don't think they can use that capacity. So the fact that they are investing does suggest that they that they see a need for it. So that's that's all good and fundamentally that's good but at the same time you know how investors are like they they want it for free and like the real world just doesn't work like that. They have to in invest. You know, that's a really >> really interesting point and I I listen, I'm not an analyst obviously, but I've been doing this a long time and you deal with companies and and I I'll say it if you don't want to. I would say that maybe the old Intel >> got cocky. >> Oh, they absolutely got got more than cocky. I I mean like arrogant is is absolutely the right word to describe how they were. Um again, they they've had a a change of heart, I think, on that. Like they're they're turning over a new leaf. the culture there is is changing. But I mean I they they clearly were were were arrogant. I mean I look I I think I used the words in writing to describe their history. I think I used the words fat, dumb, and lazy at at one point. And that's that's really where >> there's no way to go through life, by the way. No way to go through life. I think that was a movie line. >> But but do you do you like the new >> Do you like the new quieter a little more humble Intel under the helm of Lip Bhutan? >> I I I do. But look, look, it's always better to underpromise and overd deliver. And I think Lipu recognizes that. And you know, I I even wrote this in today's note and and I've said this before. I mean, my career being negative on the on this stock. Like, we're not negative on it right now, per se. We we're we're neutral on it from a rating standpoint. And I think I wrote this in today's note. I feel better about it than I have in in in a long long time because again, you can kind of see what they're doing and and and they are executing and they've got some things going for them. The the market is working for them. I think they actually got lucky, frankly, on on the server upside that is really helping them right now. But look, take lucky over good. I mean, they they were maybe due for a break. It's been a while and you take that. Um, I also think the narrative is is also working for them. The fact that supply right now is very very tight. Um, it brings the foundry narrative back in into play. And look, I'll be honest, customers are probably giving them a harder look than they ordinarily would because of the nature of the current supply situations. All those things, I think, are lining up for them. it is still a bit of a slag right they've got a lot of work to do and and they have not denied that at all and I think they are trying to you know to underpromise and overd deliver against those expectations and and I think the fact that they are now putting the capex in place does suggest that they are kind of more positive about about the trajectory but you know I'm not maybe in my heart of hearts I'm not surprised with the reaction today either I mean it's going to be what it's going to be >> yeah and again stock up 161% this year it's had a heck of runs made a lot of people a lot of money. Stacy Raz got a Bernstein. Appreciate it, Stacy. Thank you very much. >> All right, folks. Hold on everybody because we've got a news alert right now on Anthropic. Kate Rooney, what's going on with Anthropic? So, Brian, Anthropic just released its newest AI model. The headline here is really about cost. company claiming Opus 5 as it's called performs within 0.5% of the best AI model that it's got out there but about half the cost when you look at cost per task. This does appear to be Anthropic's response to growing complaints that we hear from CFOs, CEOs as well around the price of tokens and building on AI. It also comes as Anthropic now fends off new open- source versions out of China which the company has accused of copying its own technology. philanthropic product executive Diane Penn told us that the feedback company is getting from customers is more about value at this point. She said if it's just a cheaper model, it's not accomplishing a quality outcome. It's actually not useful. So she called this model a quote daily driver for many enterprise customers out there. Anthropic does have the most expensive option out there on the market right now. There's also a wave of cost pressure coming for a lot of the AI giants. A lot of those are coming out of China. Brian specifically back to you. Yeah, I what do we make of this? First off, you got a lot of new models rolling out. But I think the question now becomes, Kate, when do these companies that are spending all the money, the the Alphabets, the world, the Meta the world, when do they make money on AI? They're spending hundreds of billions of trillions of dollars. When do they make it back? We want price increases, not cuts. I think >> the thing about Anthropic that's been interesting is its revenue growth. And there have been reports, especially early this quarter. We have talked to sources who say that they were on track to turn a profit. So as far as making money on this technology, Anthropic has actually been seen as one of the leaders here and has had the revenue growth that just has not existed at any point in Silicon Valley. The thing about it is now that there's more cost pressure and more of a realization from a lot of CEOs that while Anthropic may have the best model, they want to look to other cheaper versions. That's where the tension comes in and the threat comes in. Anthropic has figured out ways to monetize AI, but there are so many new entrance, this threat out of China. And also, you mentioned big tech. Microsoft is one of the companies out there, Google as well, that are trying to undercut on price. So, they're seeing it from all areas. I should also mention this is an almost trillion dollar company that's going >> public at some point in the next 12 months, we're hearing. And that's on deck. Yeah. >> K Rooney, I'm guessing knowing a little bit about K Rooney that that you use, you know, like Spotify and, you know, stream a little bit, right? >> Streamer. Yeah. Every couple weeks somebody's raising their price. Nobody's cutting prices. >> They are. Well, it's interesting. They are. Well, if you look at streamers and tech in general, they're trying to raise prices to raise margin on on AI. I would say >> should AI be the same thing is my point, right? As it becomes more ubiquitous for consumers. So, we are as consumers, if you're talking to Chachi PT or Claude, the price has been pretty s stagnant. It's around 20 bucks a month. for enterprises. They're really doing this complicated way of essentially charging enterprises and that's been where the rub is. I mean, it's the the most profitable area for these companies. >> Okay, so let's go ahead and start off with XLE, which is the energy sector ETF. It did decline a little bit today. The price of oil dropped a little bit. And remember this trend line that I talked about yesterday and the day before that. And I created this back on July 22nd and uh basically took the high here from that level and that level and drew this long trend line. Now the problem is yesterday it did surpass got above it but what happened was the bears basically pushed it right back under that level of resistance. Right? So as it was coming up guess what it was pierced again. The bulls tried to push XLE up again but then the bears pushed it right back under that trend line. So, we've got a shooting star candle. This is a reversal candle. I'll show you guys what that looks like on this cheat sheet that I like to use. Let me show you guys that cheat sheet here on my X page. It's under at BlueCloud Trader. All right, you can find this uh X page here, my blue cloud trading. Click on highlights. And when you do that, you scroll down a little bit until you find this, which is the candle pattern reference sheet. Let's click on it, make it a little bigger, and let's take a look at the shooting star. So, under the under the bearish column here. All right. What we're looking for is the single candle pattern. It's this specific. Let me just go ahead and put a square around it so you can see it better. Right there. So [clears throat] you see the long wick, small little body. Okay, that's what they call the shooting star after price has been moving up. If you see that type of candle, expect price to drop if especially if it gets under the low of that candle. Higher probability. No guarantees in the market. Here's a few other single candle patterns that you may want to memorize. The hanging man, it looks like a long wick with a small body after a move up. the Greystone dogee. It's a long wick with a small I'm sorry, very flat body at the bottom and the red spinning top. That's also something to watch out for. Now, ironically, if you see that exact same candle, all right, any of these candles on at the bottom of a move, meaning price has been declining and then you see that same candle, which was back here was considered the hanging man over here, it's considered the hammer. So, there's a higher probability it's going to move. It's they're basically reversal candles and so it changes it or it should change the direction. It's a higher probability uh chance that it's going to change the direction of the move. Okay, same thing here. All right, let's get back and you should uh definitely check out this part about understanding how candlesticks work. The opening, the close, the high of the candle, the low of the candles, the wicks. If it's a red candle, the open is up here, the the body, and the close is at the bottom. And the wick again on the top represents the high and the low. All right, so let's get back to the charts, guys. So XLE, I'd hold off on energy, uh, this ETF for the time being. On the weekly chart, you can see here it's looking quite bullish. It's the only one of the ETFs and and stocks that that are mixed up in here that have a blue flag because price is technically above all the correct moving averages in the in the correct order. AXP, American Express, big gap down today, down 4.27%. It was holding up above the 200 yesterday, but it was still under these moving averages. Now it drops some more. The momentum is increasing for American Express. See that volume also increasing. See the ADX moving up. That's the white line that represents momentum. And the red line here, the negative DI9 is moving up. The red the green line is moving down. We don't want that. That's That's not a good sign. We want the opposite. When the green line is above the red line and the ADX is moving up, it can lead to a nice move to the upside. Next, AN which is Astroenica under the cloud. It's in a series of lower lows. We do have a higher low higher high here from the prior one. So, but it's still technically in a downtrend. I'd stay out of that one. BUG is the cyber security ETF. And so the global x cyber security ETF it's under I take that back. It it just got back above the keeun in the 26 period and it developed a bullish pattern called the bullish harami right there. So we got our large red candle followed by a small little bullish candle. Higher probability it's going to move up. Um but I wouldn't be adding a position because it's still under the nine period here on the daily chart. Let's look at the weekly. on the weekly chart, it stalled right at the at the nine period. So nine period on the weekly. Let's take a look at and and if you guys want to see this pattern again, just go to that pattern cheat sheet. You look under double candle patterns and there's the bullish harami right there. Large red candle followed by a smaller bullish candle. Okay, let's get back. So here's CBRE. It gapped up. Uh this is also another a three. See this these three candles that you see here? Let me show you guys what that is. That's considered it's a bullish pattern. It kind of looks like an bullish abandoned baby. Okay. So, do you see down here on triple candle patterns right there? The red candle, the small little candle, it gap. So, it gapped down then it gapped up leaving the smaller candle down below. All right, let's take a look at that c that whole situation again. very similar, right? So, this is a bullish pattern. Gap down, gap back up, leaving the baby down below. And now it just needs to break through this uh the cloud here on the daily. What does the weekly look like? Well, it's stalling right at the bottom of the cloud. So, I'd hold off on this too, right? We've got a series of lower highs, lower lows. You might get some bullishness next week on Monday potentially because of this pattern, but it's got a lot more difficulties above because it's got resistance the 200 day and um you can see all this other resistance going on here on the weekly. GPIQ is the Goldman Sachs NASDAQ 100 core premium income ETF. This one here for the last couple of weeks now has been dropping. Okay, so NASDAQ has not been performing well. Um, here's a daily chart. I would not be I don't I'm not quite sure why they're picking that as a as a final trade. You can see the symmetrical triangle that's been broken here. Technically, it's unound. It's something that I wouldn't touch right here, okay? Because it's still declining. IBM is also very bearish. It's under the cloud as well. You can see the lower high here. It gapped down. You know, it's it moved up 3.69%, but it just stalled right at that 9 period. Nothing good going on here. Oracle, forget about it. It's like still dropping. Okay, I watched Donnie Brasco the other day, so it's like, forget about it. It's you, you want to stay out of this one, guys. Stay out of this one. It's in a downward channel. Um, and it's a very steep steep decline that doesn't seem to want to end. And look at that red line. It's still above the green line. Okay. SLB on the other hand, the energy sector, oil and gas equipment services up 11.08%. Even though you know the oil stocks did drop a little bit today, this particular stock actually jumped. And so this one looks more interesting. You can see how it was finding support here and here on the 200 day moving average, right? It broke above this level right here. So gapped up. It's a higher probability it's going to continue moving. The directional movement index looks very bullish. The volume with this pop up looks good. That's the daily chart. Here's the weekly broke above the 9 period. So, there's a high probability that this is going to continue to the upside. Um, let's take a look at the indices. Now, we're going to look at the SPY. Still in a box. Okay. Consolidating. Nothing happening. Up just 0.1%. That's the weekly chart. Here's a daily. Very bearish still. I mean, when I say bearish, it's just stagnant. Okay, the Q's still declining. In fact, today they dropped under the low of this 68632. This I'm sorry, 68637 from this candle going back to June June 9th. This is what I'm talking about. Technology, which is what QQQs are primarily made up of. I mean, just a list of some of the stocks that are in there. Even Apple's in there. I mean, but some of these stocks are okay. They're up today, but it doesn't mean necessarily that these are really a strong this is a strong area to be in. Um, you look at the Dow DIA ETF, that's looking interesting here in the daily chart. It found some support. Uh, up49% today, but it's bearish on the daily for the most part. On the weekly chart, it's still holding above the 10. It's Russell 2000 on the weekly chart holding up above the 9 period, but still stuck in a box. And on the daily chart, same thing here. It's under the moving averages. The VIX dropped a little bit, 1.02% instead of at 18.58. So that's not a bad thing. We want to see the VIX dropping. FEZ is the Euro stocks 50. It's inside the cloud. Again, just consolidating here. Gold is also still consolidating inside this box. It was down just I'm sorry, it was up 0.1%. Silver is also consolidating, just up 1.02. stuck in a box. Oil K is just entered the cloud. Again, the this is the ProShares K1 free crude oil strategy ETF. Now, the majority of the day, oil was dropping from the open here. It there's the opening price and it dropped approximately, let's see how long how much did it drop. It dropped around.9% before recovering and it moved up 1.03. So, that's interesting. It did gap down after hours, too. Let's look at the 30-inut chart. So, right now, we did have a negative crossover for oil K and it's still under that 26 period. Bitcoin IBIT on the 30-inut chart is underneath the cloud. On the daily chart, it's under the cloud. On the weekly chart, it's under the cloud. So, Bitcoin is not something I would be touching. Ethereum is also under the cloud on the weekly. On the daily it's inside. On the 30 minute it's under. So no on Ethereum COP X which is the copper miners ETF COP X is the ticker symbol is inside the clouds. So on the 30 on the daily chart it's under and on the weekly it's um right under the moving averages. And uh that folks this is going to be a short video today. Um, but what I do want to do is quickly just tell you guys how you can support this channel. If you like what you're seeing, consider subscribing. It's free to hit that subscribe button. Make sure you also hit the notification bell so that if one of my videos pops up, you'll be able to find it up here. Okay? And if you want to get access, I'm going to I'll be putting out another membersonly video this weekend. I do it every weekend. I go over my entire portfolio. I share about 20 to 30 stock ideas for the upcoming week. I focus mostly on the strongest sectors and industries. Today there were some new industries and new sectors that started to pop up. Okay, because it was a bullish day. I'll be talking about those. Consider be trying try it out for for a month. Um it's not that expensive. $25 to become a blue cloud trader. Okay. Uh, so if you click on the join button here, you click on this right here, BlueCloud Trader, $24.99, and you'll be able to see four videos, four exclusive member only videos each month under this level. Under BlueCloud Legend, you'll also get those videos. Um, it is a little bit more expensive, $49.99 a month. But what I I also do is share my trades each day. All right, so once you become a member, you'll be able to access the posts uh that I post before the market closes. Today I posted it at 1 p.m. I shared some of the trades that I closed out of and added. Uh, okay guys, hope you all have a great weekend. Enjoy yourselves. You know, the summer is uh we've got one more month, August. So, have a good uh good weekend. I'll catch you all in the next video. [music] The ichimoku [music] guiding [singing] light. Blue cloud trading [singing] through the night. Heat. Heat.