WARNING: SoFi Earnings Could Change Everything...

Are you guys ready? We're getting SoFi's earnings in the morning and we have to break down everything that you need to know. Now, the estimates, what I'm doing, the charts, where my head's at heading into earnings, and a couple key things I'm paying attention to. So, guys, let's dive into it. Hit the like button. Make sure to subscribe. Join my Patreon if you want to keep up with my portfolio updates, my trades, investments, and if you want to be a part of my private Discord, it's all linked down below, pinned in the comments, or go to stasurfast.com/patreon. And now, let's dive into it. So, SoFi as of right now, and by the way, we're about 3-4 minutes away from close, SoFi's down 1 and 1/4%, not too bad, and we're actually trading at the bottom of this uptrending channel on the 4-hour time frame, which is quite the opposite of how we've been heading into previous earnings reports. We've covered that before, you know, we've actually sold off um well, post earnings a lot of the time recently, but heading into earnings, the stock has actually done pretty well in the previous reports, you know. We can see this go around, it kind of actually stayed flat, but last time they reported, it ripped into earnings. The stock went from 15 all the way to about 20, and it got down to about 18-80, 19 bucks heading into earnings, and then it tanked, right? So, this time, this go around, it's quite different technically, which doesn't mean it it has to break out, guys. That's not how it works. I mean, look, it could still go lower, but at this point, the setup is more attractive than usual for SoFi technically heading into earnings. And by the way, overall today, the market has been quite the roller coaster ride. Oil's down, which is good. The VIX is down as well. Um oil's down 5% for Brent, 4.2 for WTI. The VIX is down 2 and 1/2% Bitcoin's down um hovering right in the mid-60s. The Qs are down 0.9% right now. The Russell is up barely a quarter percent as the S&P is up roughly the same and the Dow is is crushing it, man. 1.1% green day today for the Dow. The Dow stocks are on fire and this is right at all-time highs. It looks like the Dow might be hitting highs at some point this week if if this moment momentum continues. So, yeah, all over the place type day. Dow's up the most, Qs selling off, not surprising, but it is looking good considering Well, I'm not going to say good, but it is a decent sign that we did get a relief rally intraday on the on the Qs. And we held most of those gains, but in in in the grand scheme of things, man, we're still in a downtrend on the 1-hour chart. So, I mean, who cares about today's price action with the relief rally when we're clearly falling under a critical support 685-690. We talked about that last week and now it looks like this gap might fill slowly down to 640-650. I think it's possible and [clears throat] to be honest, guys, I don't think the Qs go much lower than that in the short term. You'll notice here 630-640 in general. That was resistance for months earlier this year in in the end of 2025 and then we finally broke through it. So, I think that should act as support unless we get unless we get some severe fundamental changes in some of these AI the you know, AI stocks, right? Which obviously have a heavy weighting in the Qs. Unless something like that happens, I think we hold 640-650. But who knows? I mean, it's not guaranteed. Nothing's guaranteed. Uh but, I just don't see us, you know, round tripping these uh gains, whatever you want to call it. So, we went from 554 all the way to 750. I don't see us going back to to the um to the low 600s. There goes the closing bell. Let alone under 600. I I just don't see it happening. So, I think we'll get a sharp rally in the low mid 600s, and I'm gearing up for it. I think we have a little more downside to go, but again, sharp rally, or maybe this is all the downside for all we know. Um that's why I don't sell stocks. That's why I don't panic sell, try and buy back lower. I'm generally a longer-term investor, guys. And during times like these, I'm playing it chill. I'm uh you know, I'm not doing anything crazy. I'm not panicking. Uh I'm just, again, holding and buying where I see fit. So, let me show you SoFi. I don't want to get too carried away here on the indices. SoFi had a red day, officially. Markets just closed. You guys heard the bell. And we can see here, again, it's trading pretty oversold heading into the print in the morning. Um if it does start bouncing through these moving averages, it could legitimately make a move back to 18, 19 bucks like that on good earnings, which I think they will be good. So, let's dive into what to expect earnings-wise, then we'll talk more about what I'm looking out for here. So, bear with me, guys, as I uh pull this up right here. So, heading into the print, SoFi's trading at a $21 billion market cap. Excuse me, trading at uh 36 times earnings, trailing earnings, and forward earnings are trading at, let's see, 28 forward PE. Not bad, actually pretty low considering uh the last couple of quarters that we can see here. The forward PE has been at 29, 44, 48, 61, 36. So, 28 is historically low looking at relatively recent data here and the trailing P of 37 is also pretty low looking at where we've been. And as of right now, the high target on the street is 30 bucks a share heading into earnings, the average is 20. Currently, we're more towards the low price target of $12 a share. We have 12 hold ratings, five buy ratings, couple strong buys, couple underperform and sell ratings. So, analysts are all over the place on this thing, guys, right now. On average, analysts are expecting 30% revenue growth. If I zoom in here, you guys can see we have 16 analysts, the average revenue estimate 1.12 billion. A year ago, they did 858 million dollars. So, that would be growth of 30% year-on-year. And on earnings for earnings, they're expecting on average 11 cents versus 9 cents from last year. Not too bad. And again, 30% rev growth, I'll take it. I'll take it all day. I like that. So, at this point in time, I'm long. You guys know I've been in SoFi since the mid low single digits. Or actually, well, mid kind of mid $5, $6 is where I started buying. So, I guess mid high. I don't think I Yeah, I never bought under $5. That would have been crazy. But yeah, mid to high single digits is where I've been is how I've been tracking the stock for a while, man. I've been in it for a while. I'm I'm keeping a very close eye on a couple of things, not just those numbers, the analysts, which you got to You got to take that with a grain of salt, guys. But I'm also keeping a very close eye on member growth. SoFi added a record 1.05 million members last quarter. Another quarter near 1 million would show that brand momentum remains very strong. I'm keeping a close eye on that and of course loan originations. Q1 originations reached a record $12.2 billion including $8.3 billion in personal loans and strong volume is good, but we also need a healthy credit check or quality, right? Excuse me. Um charge-offs and delinquencies. This is important as well. This is probably one of the biggest risk metrics to pay attention to, right? Personal loan charge-offs rose sequentially from 2.8% to 3.03% last quarter, although management maintained that overall credit performance was consistent with expectations. Um I'm keeping a close eye on the deposits and net interest margin. Deposits reached $40.2 billion in Q1 helping SoFi fund loans more cheaply. Continued deposit growth and stable margins would be very bullish, you know? And the loan platform business, it was one of the bigger disappointments last quarter. Um investors want to see stronger third-party loan demand because it produces fee revenue without forcing SoFi to hold every loan on its balance sheet right? And on top of that, the technology platform revenue fell 27% last quarter after a large customer left and the market will want to see that signs that Galileo and Technisys are stabilizing or returning to growth. Um fee-based revenue guys is big. Um this is extremely important because it helps SoFi become less dependent on interest income and balance sheet lending, uh which we talked about in you know, a second ago. So, those are a couple key things I'm paying attention to. Again, expect around 30% revenue growth. EPS to grow a little bit year-over-year, not too bad. Like I said, the setup the setup looks good. That doesn't mean I'm full porting into, you know, SoFi weekly calls. You know, I'm I'm just holding on to my position, but it looks like we could be seeing another push here potentially post earnings, but you can never be so sure with SoFi. Even though the setup looks good, I mean, it could still gap down in this market. In this market, everything's getting nailed it seems like even on pretty good earnings. If they if they disappoint in the slightest, right? They could get punished for it. So, keep that in mind. I'm not telling you guys to go buy or do anything. Please trade at your own risk. Uh, but it looks decent and the numbers are pretty good, man. Pretty good. So, I'm going to set some alerts. Why not? I'm going to put one at 16 maybe maybe $16 on the downside just to see if this thing breaks the channel. I'm I'm going to be watching it like a hawk. So, I don't even need alerts really. But, I'm going to set one at 16. I'll do another one at let's say 17.25. So, if we start pushing out of here, we'll see if it breaks out further. That's that's going to be exciting, man. And then in the morning, again, keep your eyes on them. And of course, of course, I'm going to do a video tomorrow. The first video tomorrow is going to be a full breakdown of their earnings. Probably a 20-30 minute video, guys. So, make sure to subscribe. Hit that follow button, that notification bell, whatever you want to do. And check out my Patreon. If you guys who to keep up with my portfolio updates, trades, investments, if you want to be a part of my private Discord, it's all linked down below on Patreon, pinned in the comments, or go to stossurfast.com/patreon. I'll see you in there, guys. Have a great rest of your day.