Recommendations
Entry is the asset's closing price on the publication date. Current is the last close on record.
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Entry $197.01 28 Jul 2026Current $223.78 07 Aug 2026Result −$26.77
Michael Bur is increasing his bearish positions on Nvidia and Micron, two of the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom.
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Entry $820.53 28 Jul 2026Current $858.03 07 Aug 2026Result −$37.50
Michael Bur is increasing his bearish positions on Nvidia and Micron, two of the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom.
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Entry $24.62 28 Jul 2026Current $23.68 07 Aug 2026Result −$0.94
At the same time, he is buying two beaten down sports betting companies, DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment.
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Entry $109.06 28 Jul 2026Current $93.01 06 Aug 2026Result −$16.05
At the same time, he is buying two beaten down sports betting companies, DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment.
Full Transcript
I am betting against the big short investor Michael Bur and I believe my research is credible and the numbers support my position. In this video, I will present a side-by-side comparison of the two stocks Michael Bur is buying and the two stocks he is shorting. I want you to judge this comparison and share your verdict in the comments at the end of this video. Michael Bur is increasing his bearish positions on Nvidia and Micron, two of the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom. At the same time, he is buying two beaten down sports betting companies, DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment. So, is Michael Bur identifying another historic bubble before everyone else? or is he applying an outdated semiconductor cycle argument to an AI buildout that is fundamentally changing the demand for computing and memory. Let's begin the comparison with profitability profile. Nvidia generates a 74.2% gross margin, 64% EBIT margin, and 63% net margin. Micron is similarly impressive with a 72.6% 6% gross margin, 65.7 EBIT margin, and 55.9% net margin. DraftKing reports the highest gross margin of 76.7% but almost all of it disappears after operating expenses. Its EBIT margin is only8% and its net margin is also below 1%. Flutter is weaker still with a negative 2.2 net margin and a negative 5.2 free cash flow margin. Return on capital make the contrast even clearer. Nvidia generates a 67% return on total capital and Micron produces 42.6%. DraftKing and Flutter generate only 1.2 and 1.5% respectively. These figures show that Nvidia and Micron are converting growth into substantial profits while Bur sports betting selections are producing limited or negative returns. Now let's discuss growth comparisons. Micron currently has the strongest growth profile, revenue increase 167% year-over-year and is expected to grow another 112% going forward. IITA surged 332% while diluted EPS increased 76%. Forward EPS growth is projected at approximately 391%. Nvidia also continues to deliver exceptional results. revenue grew 71% forward growth remains above 62% and diluted EPS increased 111%. Its three-year revenue IITA and EPS compound growth rates all exceed 100%. DraftKings grew revenue by 25.8% but forward growth slows to 16.9%. Flutter is slower with 18.9% trailing revenue growth expected to fall to 12.5%. Flutter's projected EPS growth is only 6.8% 8% while its 3-year free cash flow growth is negative 21%. The important conclusion is that Nvidia and Micron combine stronger current growth with significantly higher profitability. DraftKings and Flutter offer growth but at a slower rate and for much weaker earnings basis. Moving to valuation comparison, Micron appears cheapest relative to its expected earnings. It trades at approximately 12.7 times forward gap earnings, falling to just six times estimated secondyear earnings and 5.6 times third-year earnings. Nvidia trades at 21.9 times forward gap earnings and 23 times first year non-GAAP earnings. That is more expensive than Micron but still reasonable alongside forward revenue and EPS growth of 62%. Its forward pack ratio is only.52. DraftKing trades at almost 96 times forward gap earnings and 251 times trailing earnings. Its secondyear non-GAAP multiple was 13.5, but investors are depending heavily on future margin expansion that has not yet been demonstrated. Flutter looks inexpensive on non-GAAP numbers with firstear PE of 17.5, but its gap forward pees almost 45 times. Overall, Micron offers the strongest combination of growth and valuation, while DraftKing appears the most expensive relative to proven profitability. Now, let's discuss earnings revisions. Analyst revisions strongly favor Nvidia and Micron. Nvidia has received 33 upward EPS revisions against only three downward revisions. Revenue estimates show an even stronger balance with 36 upgrades and only two downgrades. Micron has received 26 upward EPS revisions with zero downward revisions. It also has 26 upward revenue revisions and no reductions. Both companies have beaten EPS and revenue expectations in all eight reported quarters during the last 2 years. DraftKings has received only one upward EPS revision compared with 18 downward revisions. Revenue estimates include four upgrades and 19 downgrades. It has beaten revenue expectations only twice over the past eight quarters. Flutter has no upward APS revision and nine downward revisions. Revenue estimates include just one upgrade compared with 13 downgrades. This shows that analyst expectations for both sports betting companies are deteriorating while estimates for Nvidia and Micron continue moving higher. Now let's discuss balance sheet strength. Nvidia has 53.2 billion in cash gains 12.8 billion in debt leaving it with more than 40 billion in net cash. Micron has 26 billion in cash and only 6.4 billion in debt, producing nearly 20 billion in net cash. Both companies have current ratio above 3.4, low debt to equity ratios near 6% and exceptionally strong interest coverage. Their long-term debt represents only about 5% of total capital. Whereas DraftKim holds approximately 1 billion in cash against 1.9 billion in debt. Its debt to equity ratio is 317%. Its quick ratio is only.7 and the long-term debt represents almost 76% of total capital. Flutter has 1.5 billion in cash against 12.6 billion in debt leaving 11 billion in net debt. Its current ratio is below 1. Its quick ratio is only 43 and its interest coverage ratio is below one. Now let's discuss quant factor grades. Seeking alpha quant grades identify Micron as the strongest stock in nearly every category. It receives an A for valuation, A plus grades for growth, profitability, and momentum, and A minus for earnings revision. Nvidia receives A+ grades for growth and profitability, but a D minus for valuation. Its momentum and earnings revision grades are both B minus, suggesting excellent fundamentals, but a less attractive entry price. DraftKing receives an A+ for growth, but that strength is offset by a D for valuation, B minus for profitability, and D plus grades for momentum and earnings revision. Flutter has the weakest overall profile, C plus valuation, B plus growth, D plus profitability, D minus momentum, and D earnings revisions. These grades directly challenge the argument that Bur's long positions offer better risk adjusted opportunities than the semiconductor stocks he is shorting. Now looking at total returns historical returns overwhelmingly favor Nvidia and Micron over one year Micron returned approximately 77% while Nvidia gained 13%. Dark Kings fell 45% and Flutter declined almost 65%. The contrast becomes an even stronger over longer periods. Over 3 years Micron turned approximately 1290% and Nvidia gained 341%. DraftKings lost 21% while Flutter fell 46%. Over 5 years, Nvidia returned 98% and Micron gained more than 1,000%. Compared with losses of 51% for DraftKings and 40% for Flutter. Past performance does not guarantee future returns and Micron's enormous rally increases collection risk. Nevertheless, the long-term record shows that Nvidia and Micron have consistently created shareholder value while DraftKing and Flutter have destroyed it. Now, let's discuss recent price performance. Micron has suffered the largest 1-mon decline, falling approximately 14%. But that follows gains of 81% over 3 months and 125% over 6 months. It short-term decline therefore appears to be correction following an extraordinary rally. not yet evidence that the fundamental trend has reversed. Nvidia has been relatively stable falling around 1% in 1 month and 6% over 3 months while remaining positive over 6 months year to date and 1 year. RodKings has gained 4% over 3 months but remains down almost 20% over 6 months and 30% year to date. Flutter gained 7.4% 4% over the past month, but remains down 39% over 6 months and 51% year to date. Short-term rebounds in DraftKings and Flutter have not repaired their long-term downtrends. So, do you want to short Nvidia and Micron or buy on the dips? Let me know what you think in the comments. And here is my verdict. DraftKings trades at approximately 96 times trailing earnings and around 26 times forward earnings. Still above the broader market average. It also has a history of earnings volatility and disappointing quarterly results. While Flutter has fallen roughly 60% over the past year, but a fallen share price does not automatically create value. Its revenue growth is expected to decelerate into single digits. Analysts have made numerous downward earnings revisions and at the time of recording, seeking Alpha's quant rating system gives the stock a sell rating and warns that it faces a high risk of underperformance. Meanwhile, Nvidia and Micron continue to produce extraordinary revenue growth, record profits, enormous cash flow, and strong forward guidance. Both Nvidia and Micron trades at far lower multiples than DraftKing and Flutter Entertainment.
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