I own Micron. Uh, Seagate's going to announce after the close today. Uh, SanDisk is been quite on a wild ride, but I back up and buy all of them.
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Uh, I own Micron. Uh, Seagate's going to announce after the close today. Uh, SanDisk is been quite on a wild ride, but I back up and buy all of them.
I own Micron. Uh, Seagate's going to announce after the close today. Uh, SanDisk is been quite on a wild ride, but I back up and buy all of them.
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Uh, I own Micron. Uh, Seagate's going to announce after the close today. Uh, SanDisk is been quite on a wild ride, but I back up and buy all of them.
I own Micron. Uh, Seagate's going to announce after the close today. Uh, SanDisk is been quite on a wild ride, but I back up and buy all of them.
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Uh, I own Micron. Uh, Seagate's going to announce after the close today. Uh, SanDisk is been quite on a wild ride, but I back up and buy all of them.
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I think that's a company that is firing on all cylinders and the dip buying opportunity looks really attractive now that we've breached just below the 200 day moving average ... pretty good buying opportunity in GLW.
PWR vertive holding VRT all are screaming buys. All what all these stocks have in common, including Bloom Energy and G Venova, is their order backlogs keep getting bigger.
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The the uh Quantis services PWR vertive holding VRT all are screaming buys. All what all these stocks have in common, including Bloom Energy and G Venova, is their order backlogs keep getting bigger.
PWR vertive holding VRT all are screaming buys. All what all these stocks have in common, including Bloom Energy and G Venova, is their order backlogs keep getting bigger.
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The the uh Quantis services PWR vertive holding VRT all are screaming buys. All what all these stocks have in common, including Bloom Energy and G Venova, is their order backlogs keep getting bigger.
All what all these stocks have in common, including Bloom Energy and G Venova, is their order backlogs keep getting bigger.
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The the uh Quantis services PWR vertive holding VRT all are screaming buys. All what all these stocks have in common, including Bloom Energy and G Venova, is their order backlogs keep getting bigger.
All what all these stocks have in common, including Bloom Energy and G Venova, is their order backlogs keep getting bigger.
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The the uh Quantis services PWR vertive holding VRT all are screaming buys. All what all these stocks have in common, including Bloom Energy and G Venova, is their order backlogs keep getting bigger.
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Well, I love Elbert Systems. is Israeli and they build all the missile defense shields which are now needed throughout the Middle East and they have been employed in much of the Middle East.
I also have Halman Aerospace, uh, HWM. I like them.
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I also have Halman Aerospace, uh, HWM. I like them and, uh, it's, uh, you know, there's obviously the defense spending is going to remain hot and heavy here for a while.
I would avoid those pure drone plays. ... Kattos feels kind of like dead money.
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One thing I would avoid though is like those pure uh drone plays. Um the drone plays have they worked out until they didn't and they have not gotten a bid in the last several months and I don't see them getting a bid anytime soon. ... Kattos feels kind of like dead money.
the name that I like the best, as I kind of already hinted at, is Rocket Lab.
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And the name that I like the best, as I kind of already hinted at, is Rocket Lab. I think with them acquiring Aridium, they're really moving into the SpaceX game...
a AMD is the best buy at this moment as I talk to you.
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Well, a AMD is the best buy at this moment as I talk to you.
Full Transcript
Hello and welcome to Being Exponential. Today we're doing a slightly different episode. We have a guest today. All right, we have Louis, a fellow colleague of ours, and today we're going to be doing a head-to-head battle of sorts for our favorite stocks for the remainder of the year. Uh, so gentlemen, in a sea of bears, you guys are pretty bullish on AI for the foreseeable future. So, I'd love to get a read on a couple of different sectors and what your favorite plays are for those sectors. So, let's start off with semiconductor stocks. Um, Lou, since you're our guest, let's have you go first. >> Well, a AMD is the best buy at this moment as I talk to you. Uh, Nvidia uh has already had a a pretty good intraday reversal and was exhibiting a lot of real strength. But, uh, I think AMD was probably hit because Nvidia did a big deal with Open AI and before that AMD was opening announcing Open AI deals. So, um, but they both have very good forecast of sales and earnings. So, yeah, lock and load on both those two. >> Excellent. Uh, Luke, your your thoughts. >> Yeah, I mean, the whole semi complex has been hit ridiculously hard in the last uh month or so. It's really been flat for three months. Hit hard in the last month especially. Uh, by many metrics, it's the biggest sell-off in semi since the AI boom began. Uh so it's either a really really good buying opportunity or you know the beginning of the end of of the AI infra. And I think it's a really good buying opportunity simply because the earnings have been very very strong. Estimates are still moving higher. Spending commitments are are still going up. Um there's concern about the the debt financing side of it because hyperscalers have drained their cash flows. Um and then the you know just as we're getting into debt financing interest rates are are going up. you know, the 10-year Treasury yield, uh, pushing 45, 46, 47, upper fours. So, um, there's definitely some concerns there and I get the fears and I I get all that, all the jitters, but I think at the end of the day, the money is still flowing. Uh, these guys view it as an existential race. Uh, the dollars are continuing to flow into the semiconductor complex. So, I think you have some really good buying opportunities uh, across the board. I like AMD a lot like uh, Louise said, but I'm going to go with a company that just reported earnings um, today. And that is Corning GLW. I think they put up some really, really, really good numbers. Looking at the numbers here, core sales up 17%, EPS up 30%, operating margins plus 190 basis points. Uh optical communications revenue up 32%, net income in that uh department surged 77%. Gen AI, Gen AI product sales nearly doubled. Orders continue to accelerate. The guide was really strong. I think that's a company that is firing on all cylinders and the dip buying opportunity looks really attractive now that we've breached just below the 200 day moving average which typically is a is a bearish thing but I think that um this break is actually a pretty good buying opportunity in GLW. So I'm going to go with them. Excellent. All right. Thanks gentlemen. Uh moving on to the next sector I'd like to talk about. Uh let's uh let's go with memory. Had a massive year earlier in the year. Uh so what are your thoughts for the remainder of the year for the memory sector? >> Well, that's even more volatile than semis. Okay. And uh all of them are good buys. Uh I own Micron. Uh Seagate's going to announce after the close today. Uh SanDisk is been quite on a wild ride, but I back up and buy all of them. Now, um we were talking off air that there is something on YouTube everybody's got to watch. It's called um it was at Stanford University and they had a couple gentlemen show up. It was called the economies of the AI super cycle and they were talking about how open AI anthropic grock have all hit a wall because uh they don't have enough computing power and they were talking about the memory shortage. Okay. And these two guys which are incredibly successful investors one uh works for Nvidia I think Nvidia bought his company uh are beyond bullish. Okay. And I think they explained it very eloquently. Now, it's like a 55minute video, but you'll be riveted and it's going to be very hard for anyone who watches that video not to put all their money in memory and some of it's that it's that upbeat. But, you know, these guys know what they're doing and and they eat their own cookie and they're big investors. So, um yeah, the memory bottleneck is going to last at least 15 months. Uh I I know the Korean memory companies are wild and that their wild trading in Korea has spilled over to here lock and load on all these microns four times forecasted earnings. That's ridiculous. >> All right, thanks. Uh Luke, your thoughts? >> Yeah, I mean I I agree, right? like it's it's hard not to like the memory stocks when you're trading at single-digit forward multiples on the back of tripledigit uh revenue growth and even bigger profit growth in a lot of these names and that ramp is expected to persist into 2028. Um I think the most recent estimates have earnings peaking out in 2028 2029 for a lot of these names. Looking at the Micron estimates right now the earnings peak is predicted in 2029. So, we're still three to two to three years away from from an earnings peak. We know that these are cyclicals. We know that eventually earnings will peak and they'll come down dramatically on the other side. Uh but given that we're two to three years away from that peak, maybe even longer, that peak keeps getting pushed out, it seems like every single quarter. And you have singledigit P multiples going into that, you know, that peak that's still many years away. And these stocks have been hit super super hard. I mean, Micron's in the middle of uh Seagate's down 30% from its high. Micron is down what? Pulling it up right now. Also 30% from its high. SanDisk, I think, is down 50% from its high maybe. What is it? Yeah, 52% as of today. So, these are stocks that have corrected 30 40 50% lower without a change in the fundamentals just because of jitters. Uh so I think that's that's a pretty attractive setup. I I I like memory. I think you have to be aware that eventually uh the music will stop playing and these things will crash, but I I just don't think that is here and now. Um Google raising capex, TSMC raising capex, Tesla raising capex. I bet we'll hear from Microsoft and Meta raising capex and Amazon raising capex this week, too. So I just I I mean the argument is that the market forces, you know, those guys to cut capex because they get jittery about all the spending and the open source and all that stuff, but I just I think even if the market tries to pressure them as much as the market possibly can, I don't see Zuck and Elon and those guys reducing their capex because they really do things as existential. So, as long as that that money is flowing, I think memory is is good is is okay here. And so, I would, you know, like Louis said, I think we're getting close to I don't like to catch falling nines, but we're getting close to a backup the truck moment across the memory complex. >> Yeah. I would also add the negative media is coming from this uh semiconductor stock in China that recently went public and there is a narrative that Chinese AI is going to beat US AI and you know we've been talking a lot about tokens and things and uh can China beat be beat us in the the price of AI and it's really the the same thing as the deepseek narrative. It's fake. Okay. Right. >> China's not going to win. we're going to win and US companies aren't going to abandon American companies to go do everything in China. Okay? So, um uh you know, short sellers are nasty, horrible people. Uh they I don't know what their mothers did to them, but they were obviously mean to them when they were children. And uh they get up on the wrong side of bed and try to manipulate things. My only consolation is one of the short sellers that used to attack me just got 20 years in jail. So I think that's great. >> All right, there you have it. Back up the truck on memory stock. So moving on to the next sector. I'd like to talk about AI infrastructure plays. So I'm thinking kind of picks and shovels plays for uh AI at large. So Louie, let's start with you. >> Well, Celeste just announced and beat and is up today. Uh CLS uh Sienna's uh should be okay. That's an optical stock. Uh, you know, obviously Luke just mentioned Corny had great results. I have one that's kind of my doghouse ubiquity. Um, you uh I uh they they are firming up here. That's a good sign. Um the um uh comfort systems have blowout results. Phenomenal buy right now. That's just air conditioning. The the uh Quantis services PWR vertive holding VRT all are screaming buys. All what all these stocks have in common, including Bloom Energy and G Venova, is their order backlogs keep getting bigger. So, I've been documenting that the second quarter order backlog is growing from the first quarter. And of course, they're up um I believe um on Comfort Systems up 88% past year. So, you know, this is incredible. and um you know you just can't be bearish on stocks with you know we've got orders out to 2029. >> All right and Luke your take on AI infrastructure. >> Yeah I mean you have this massive tugof-war between as Louis outlined ridiculously relentlessly strong fundamentals with growing order backlogs and massive revenue growth rates and margin expansion and massive profit growth. none of that has changed. Yet on the other side of the tugof-war, you have really weak technical conditions. Um these these stocks despite, you know, the old saying is that if you beat and raise and don't go up, there's something wrong with the stock. And that's, you know, I don't really subscribe to that, but I get why that's a phrase. And that's what we've been seeing across uh the, you know, the Q2 reporting season is we're getting a lot of beaten raises. And only seldomly are we seeing those beaten raises being rewarded with a higher stock price after the the report. Uh Celestica is is up today. Um a couple others are are up today, but after dropping, I mean, Celestica is down 30%. And now it's up, you know, 2 3%. So it's like, you know, a little baby bounce in a in a big sell-off. And so it's this massive tugof-war between really strong fundamentals and really deteriorating technicals. Now, what that either means is that well, one of two things has to happen. either the technicals have to resolve higher and match the fundamentals or the technicals are foreshadowing a deterioration in the fundamentals. Uh what would cause a deterioration in the fundamentals? It's going to have to be a slow down in capex. And for all the reasons I've already stated on this podcast, I just don't see that happening. And so I don't see the fundamentals deteriorating in the next, you know, 12 to 24 months. And if they don't, you can only stretch the rubber band so far between strong fundamentals and weak technicals. The technicals have to get better. So I'm with Louiesie right now, but I understand that the damage is pretty severe in a lot of these names. A lot of these names, I mean, SMH and Socks, the two big ETFs here, uh, they bounce at their 100 day moving averages today. That that's good. That that's a bullish sign. We want to see them bounce at their 100 days. But the fact that they fell to their 100 days is, you know, notable. A lot of these other names, like I just said, uh, Corning has they've lost their 200 day applied optics, AOI has lost its 200 day moving average. A lot of these names have actually lost their 200 days as well. So you you just have to be aware of that. You have to understand that because of that technical damage before you really do back up the truck, in my opinion, you want to have the technicals improve just enough to say, "Hey, this this really isn't the beginning of of a sentiment driven crash that could be bigger than 20 25%, which is where we are right now." Uh, so I think you want to wait for the technicals to firm up, but I think they will firm up. But when they do firm up, I think you want to have the dry powder ready to back the truck up because I think this will be uh in hindsight uh turn into a really really really good buying opportunity. >> Yeah. And I would add that there's a lot of leveraged ETFs uh just buying memory stocks and other AI um uh related plays and so that's ex exasperating the situation. Okay. Uh I do know the the the market makers like Citadel love to write cover calls on you know companies that are volatile so they can collect these huge premiums but when they write the cover call they don't want to deliver the stocks so they run a mean reversion program to knock it down. And in the first half of July the top 10% of stocks in the Russell 1000 that were the best performers this year dropped 13.2% on these mean reversion programs. And last week the mean reversion ended but it picked up again on uh uh this week but it it should end soon and um uh it this is just market manipulation and you get a lot more of this in this in the bumpy summer months. >> Excellent. Appreciate the insight there. So we got three more sectors bit more tangential to AI but uh important nonetheless. So uh you mentioned Bloom Energy a bit Lou. So, uh, let's talk about the energy sector, uh, your favorite plays there. >> Well, we just had HF Sinclair, uh, which is DINO announce, uh, great earnings. Uh, same thing, uh, we should get it from PSX, the Philips 66. They should announce great earnings. We do like refining stocks. Um, I'm adding another one, the Growth Investor that I we haven't announced yet, but it's a refiner. Okay. So, I'll have three big refining stocks. Uh basically when you get a barrel of oil, you get about 19 gallons of gas, uh 12 gallons of diesel and other distillates like jet fuel and things like that. And the reason the refinery business is so chaotic right now is California decided they didn't want diesel from oil. So that caused uh Valero and and uh and and Philip 66 to flee California. And now they have to import uh a refined product from mostly South Korea, some from India. And because California has their own unique fuel blend, they, you know, they just can't get gas from, you know, Canada or Mexico. They got because it doesn't meet their formula. And uh so uh I actually played golf with a guy as an oil trader. And uh so all that diesel and stuff they make at the refineries in California uh then get shipped to to China to Mexico to be used up. And uh meantime they got, you know, trains full of soybeans and actually, believe it or not, bird poop from the um chicken coops. You know, there's a lot of chicken coops in America. So they're mixing the uh the soybeans with the bird poop to make this organic diesel. And there's a reason it's $8 a gallon because that's expensive. And um it's funny, you know, my wife went to Berkeley Law School. I'm getting these bulletins like we've got to make, you know, green jet fuel because we're not we haven't done that yet. So, you know, they're they're on a quest to do that. So, if you you hear that a plane crashes in California, it's probably because they put the the green jet fuel in. But, uh it's gotten ridiculous and uh they've just mandated perpetually expensive uh a diesel, which means all your delivery costs go up. >> All right, awesome. And your insight, Luke? >> Uh I like Genova. I mean, I think Louis mentioned it already on this call alongside Bloom Energy. Um I do like Bloom, but I think Genova, we got a really strong earnings validation there. And this is where the tugof-war between strong fundamentals and weak technicals just seems I mean it's very intense but the fundamentals like we just got really strong confirmation there. Uh we got a beat and raise Q2 report revenue up 22% orders up 88% uh 24.2 2 billion order backlog. Uh book to bill top 2x backlog expanded 13 billion. Sorry, the backlog expanded 13 billion to $176 billion. Uh in that quarter, management raised 2026 revenue guidance by a billion. Lifted free cash flow guidance um from 6 12 to 7 billion all the way up to 11 12 to 12 billion. So that's 7 billion to 12 billion. That that's a massive increase in free cash flow guidance. So it's not just big growth, it's big profitable growth. Um, so I just think that there's there's a lot of really good fundamental stuff going on at G Vernova. The stock reacted negatively on that day. Got a little bit of bounce the next day and then uh has been selling off ever since. We're down around 950 on GV right now. That's just below the the 100 day moving average. But we're holding that June low of around 900, just below 900. I think the buy zone is between 900 950. I think we're in that buy zone. So I really do like GE here. I think that's a great stock to buy on the energy side of things. >> Excellent. Okay. Uh moving on to the next sector. I just wanted to touch base on it pretty briefly because it feels like the Iran conflict is becoming a never- ending story. So I wanted to get your read on any possible defense plays for the remainder of uh 2026. >> Well, I love Elbert Systems. is Israeli and they build all the missile defense shields which are now needed throughout the Middle East and they have been employed in much of the Middle East. They also make the system uh with lasers that shoot downs the drones. So I had a client who was yelling at me on Elbert because you know they they launch rockets. I says yeah but the rockets shoot down the other rockets and but they they have rockets and the debris comes down. I said, "I know, but they they they the rocket shot down the rocket." Anyway, um uh she did like the laser system though, okay? But uh she didn't make me sell it. And um uh but it's a great stock. And uh you know, everybody's arming up. I mean, thank God for those missile defense shields. The carnage could have been much worse and now they got better drone defense because they have drone swarms now. So, um that's a good one. I also have Halman Aerospace, uh, HWM. I like them and, uh, it's, uh, you know, there's obviously the defense spending is going to remain hot and heavy here for a while. >> All right. And Luke, >> uh, I like helmet. I think how's the way to play it or if you want to go ETF, ITA, uh, is a good way to play it. Or Europe, UAD is a good way to play it. Those are two ETFs. ITA is the US aerody or, uh, aerospace and defense ETF. UAD is the European one. And I think those are great diversifying broad ways to play it. But single stock exposure, how uh I really like. One thing I would avoid though is like those pure uh drone plays. Um the drone plays have they worked out until they didn't and they have not gotten a bid in the last several months and I don't see them getting a bid anytime soon. You got to respect the market there. So I think a name like Kattos feels kind of like dead money. I think a name like Aervironment kind of feels like dead money. So these were drone stocks. was like, "Oh, drones the future warfare, right? It's the future format of warfare. It's going to be everything." A lot of a lot of do AI powered drone stuff. Uh, and I agree with that. Like, fundamentally, that makes a lot of sense, but we're not seeing that flow through into the price action. These are stocks that are just stuck below their their 200 day moving averages and and languishing at 52- week lows. And I I don't like that trade. I think a lot of people may try and chase it, you know, and try and be like, "Hey, let's dip by this contrarian, whatever." But I would not chase those. I would stick with the the ETFs, uh, ITA, EUAD, or if you want single stock, HMAT's a good way to go. >> All right, appreciate the insight, fellas. Okay, let's close it off with our last sector. Uh, this sector got hit pretty hard uh, during and after the SpaceX IPO. Space is down about 50% roughly, I believe. So, I'd love to get your guys' read on the sector um, as as a whole and then your favorite play for the remainder of the year. Well, I don't have a pure space play. I do have this carpenter technology CRS. They're a metals expert and they do aerospace and believe it or not, golf clubs. And my head trader, his kid goes to Colorado School of Mines. He's interning for Tesla this year. But his career choice is either uh aerospace or golf clubs. And I've been encouraged to work for Carpenter because at least he can do both. Uh, I also went to the the UFO conference in DC. Uh, Christopher Melon led that. He's friend and I was trying to support him and I'm trying to figure out who's got the technology on on the metallurgical side. I got one name. I'm still checking it out. It's private. But, uh, you know, there might be some interesting developments on on that, but um, yeah, Carpenter uh, uh, technology is is a big one. And uh that's a pure pure play. So uh I'm pretty excited about that stock. >> Excellent. All right. And Luke, >> um so this is an area where I think we're going to see more potentially more weakness before we see more strength. Um and that's because I always expected a space stock selloff after the SpaceX IPO, but not so soon. like I thought the frenzy would last a little bit longer. I actually gave a presentation um Louis was there at a conference, the Money Show conference in in Florida earlier this year and my whole thing was buy space stocks now aggressively. is like February. Uh but then trim aggressively a couple months after the IPO cuz I kind of thought that SpaceX IPO was going to have a little bit more ump and durability to the ump uh than it did and then once the lockups expired you were going to get selling pressure and that was going to lead to a deeper sell off in space stock. So the sell-off has actually happened a bit earlier, but we still have the lockup expirations going. And so we still have risks of more selling pressure in SpaceX, which we've seen flows through to the other space stocks. I mean, as goes SpaceX, so goes um Planet Labs and AS Space Mobile and Rocket Lab and Planet Labs, etc., etc., right? The whole space trade kind of revolves around um SpaceX. So I think we actually see more weakness there. And I think you see that in the technicals as well. Rocket Lab, which is my favorite long-term play in the space. Um, it just lost its 200 day moving average for the first time since May of 2024. So, for the first time in over two years, we lost the big uptrend line on Rocket Lab. Same with PL, same with AS, you know, like that's it's just that that's worrisome. Last time Rocket Lab lost a 200 day, it was that was back in uh late summer 23 and it was essentially dead money flat for for a year. So I think we could be due for like a six-month consolidation period here uh in space stocks as the SpaceX uh lockups expire and kind of waves and tanches over the next six months and then we kind of get a reawakening of of that trade. I think for long-term folks, this is a good time to be accumulating uh if you have that three to five year horizon. And the name that I like the best, as I kind of already hinted at, is Rocket Lab. I think with them acquiring Aridium, they're really moving into the SpaceX game of not just being a rocket launch company, but being a totally vertically integrated rocket launch company plus AI compute, plus all this other stuff. And so, I like their strategy. I think that's going to pay dividends in the long run. I just think for the next 3 to 6 months, the stock might just languish around 60 to 70. But that's probably a good accumulation zone if you have a 3 to 5 year horizon because it probably goes to 600 to 700 in the next 3 to 5 years. So, kind of depends on what your horizon is. But that's how I'm looking at rocket. Yeah, I I would add that you know SpaceX only had 5% float on that IPO with those 21 underwriters and now uh it's going to get more more shares are being unlocked for the insiders to finally start to cash out. Uh the Rocket Lab insiders were selling in the SpaceX IPO. I guess they wanted to sell in the enthusiasm. But yeah, this is why I don't do IPOs. I I like to because the insiders are usually bailing, you know, anywhere from three to six months out and I like all that selling pressure to be exhausted and then um so I'll pick I'll pick this up in stock raider in after 52 weeks >> and then of course we would like them to make money too and uh SpaceX I I think Luca is supposed to be probably late 2027 2028 so there's hope. >> Yeah. Yeah. And I'll add that I think that the fact that it's crashed before the lockups expire is super bearish. >> Yeah. >> Because I I know a couple people that work at SpaceX and you know, conversations I've had with them like, well, are you going to keep your shares? Are you going to sell your shares? >> And the consensus has been if SpaceX does well, like if the the IPO does well and it holds its price and it continues, then I'm going to hold on to my shares because I just want to see, you know, it's free money for them at that point, right? It's like, you know, let's just let's run. But >> if it goes down, they were all planning on selling because they're like, oh, you know, it is all of a sudden the bearish thoughts creep into your head and you're like, all right, I may as well cash out. And so I think the fact that we have dropped from 200 to 100 more or less uh before any expirations is yeah, >> that's that's not that that's not a good sign. And it tells me that when these people can sell, they're going to sell. And so I'm worried about August. >> Yeah. And the that's a very good point. Uh the other thing is it's also destroyed uh a lot of people our industry you know poor Mark Scowin he bet the ranch on on SpaceX and the preo with Ron Baron funds. Of course Ron Baron is you last I looked he had between Tesla and SpaceX it was 49% of his holdings. So obviously he's down sharply for the year. Kathy would obviously it's not helping her. She tried to buy Elon on the dip and uh you know it's funny. I've never had an Elon stock cuz it never fits um stock trader. So um you know it's uh but these other managers who got very famous for riding Tesla a long time ago are uh really having a horrific year. So, uh, I have no idea how both Kathy Wood and Rob Baron could have missed the, uh, the AI, but I I just I I get I don't know if they don't have analysts or what. Somebody should have told them something. You know, they should have said, "Hey, this is where the earnings are. Go get it." >> All right, guys. All right. So, uh, we've rounded off the gauntlet there. I just want to make a note. So, Louie also has a podcast, Navalier Market Buzz, that he does with his, uh, daughter. Excellent financial insight there. Please make sure to follow. We're going to put a a link in the comments below. Uh but that that wraps up our head-to-head sector. I'd love to get any closing thoughts you both of you guys have about the market. You know, we've been in this sentiment slump, if you want to call it that, uh for the past month, maybe month and a half. So, just your your closing thoughts for the the market for the remainder of the year. >> Well, earnings are going to be up over 30% the square on the S&P. My sales will be up over 40. Earnings will be up over 100. and I'm planning on making another 40 to 50% by year end. I don't think that's outrageous statement. That's that's actually with PE compression a lot of my stocks. Um I think it's a wonderful environment. It's it's trying to broaden out. There are seasonality issues. Okay. Markets are just not seasonally strong in August and uh midepptember and uh through midepptember. So, but we'll get through it, you know, and um oil prices will be going down after Labor Day regardless of what's happening because worldwide demand drops. So, you know, it's just time to grow and prosper. America's an oasis. We got a strong dollar. We got all this international capital flowing in. Um, you know, we should have stunning GDP growth. The only thing holding GDP back is all the chips we're importing from uh uh Taiwan and all the uh the memory chips we're importing from Korea. So if we get back that's like that's taking 2% off our GDP right now. So so uh even with record energy exports. So uh but yeah, it's going to be uh we're going to finish the year on a strong note. Analysts are are are continuing to rise their estimates higher through the fourth quarter. So that's amazing. >> All right. Appreciate that, Louis. And uh Luke, >> yeah, I think we're gonna have a stellar finish to the year, second half of the year, but I'm not going to back up the truck on that feeling until I get more technical confirmation on markets. Like, if there's one lesson I've learned in my time doing this, it's do not fight the tape. Um and right now the fundamentals are screaming bullish. I mean Morgan Stanley raised its 2027 2028 hyperscaler capex forecast by 10% to 1.2 trillion in 27 and 1.4 trillion in 28. Open AI boosted its projected AI compute spend uh through 2030 by 25% from 600 billion to 750 billion. We talked about Alphabet raising their 2026 capex guide and saying 2027 is going to be significantly higher. Tesla reaffirmed their 2026 capex guide and said they're going to uh continue to grow capex for the next two to three years. Uh TSMC uh boosted their 2026 capex guide. ASML raised their 2026 revenue guide. I think we've gotten good numbers out of all of the AI capex takers uh in the supply chain. So the the fundamentals are screamingly bullish, but we're just getting a lot of of technical weakness. And so again, like I said, maybe the market's sniffing out something that I'm not seeing. Maybe the debt loads are just are actually getting too big. And you know, credit default uh the the spreads are are blown out. I mean, Nvidia's uh credit spreads are just gone parabolic. Uh hyperscaler credit spreads have gone parabolic. So maybe that the bond market's sniffing out something that I'm just not seeing. I'm not all that concerned because these are the highest quality companies in the world uh that are producing massive cash flows that do have lots of cash in a balance sheet. And so I'm not that concerned about that stuff, but maybe there's something there I'm missing. And so to account for the fact that I don't know everything and that I don't know what I don't know, I am listening to the tape. And so I'm waiting for that back up the truck moment uh for the you know the technicals to sort of kind of say hey you know what we're putting in a bottom here and then and we're going to rebound on the AI infrastructure trade. One thing I will say that is particularly bullish is that socks the Philadelphia semiconductor index is down 25% but the S&P 500 is only 2% off its highs. That is very bullish for the broader market because when the dot boom ended in early 2000, socks also dropped 25% but at the point that socks was down 25%. It had it was it was a contagion that was spreading. The S&P 500 at that point was down 12 13%. So it was already in correction territory. It wasn't a localized selloff. It was a localized selloff that spread. Right now we have a completely localized selloff 25% down in socks 2% down in S&P 500. That does not look like early 2000. That does not look like com boom ending. That looks like boom recalibrating. And so I think that that's a very bullish data point to keep in mind amidst the AI infrastructure selloff. But I broadly think that we're due for a really strong finish of the year. I'm just personally for our subscribers for our model portfolios waiting for the technicals to confirm a bottom and a bounce and then backing up the truck. I don't want to prematurely do that. >> Excellent. All right. Appreciate the incredible uh insight there, guys, and remaining optimistic for the remainder of the year. As always, please make sure to like, comment, subscribe. We will be getting to your questions in a future episode, and please stay tuned for our Thursday episode. That's all for being exponential. Take care.
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