FOMC Rate Decision Will Destroy Your Positions If You're Not Ready

What a day. What's going on guys? It's Ricky with TechButSolutions here just minutes before the FOMC rate decision is supposed to happen. I wanted to ask you, would you like me to live stream it for free on my channel? If you do, get this video to over 500 likes, subscribe to the channel, and then I'll do my part and go in live before the rate decision is actually announced. For those that do not know, yes, this is today. We have the Fed rate monitor tool. Let's go ahead and update it. Let's see if Yep, yep, in 1 hour and 39 minutes. There's still a 36% probability. Again, I think a lot of it is being influenced by Citadel's comment. We saw a big gap up, a big move um on the possibility of a rate hike, but still, again, just my two cents, just my opinion. Obviously, anything can be reported. The probability for a rate pause is the highest, right? 63.5%. The thing that you want to remind yourself is that this month, they reported for the month of June, and inflation actually came in lower than what is expected. I do not see how the Federal Reserve can justify when inflation actually came in below expectation to actually start raising rates. But of course, anything can happen. Just wanted to share my two cents with you. That being said, a lot of news being influenced uh influencing the market, and markets have taken a significant hit. At one point, we're just down to 1.75% for all of our LPP traders, we did an amazing job today giving the market the time that it needed to identify its direction. Once we saw that it was bearish, we want to go with the flow. Again, if you're part of my LPP team and you didn't watch today's live trading session, go back and rewatch it. Every trade we took, we shared the intention behind it. And again, we were very mindful of our position size, about taking profits. It was not a perfect trading session, and of course, if I would have known that the market would have sold off this much, it's so easy to look back and be like, I should have just held. But it's It's easy, right? Like, there's there's a lot of uncertainty. Markets are rational. They're always looking for a reason to recover. And today, there's going to be a lot of volatility. I think yesterday kind of planted that seed for us. If you look at the 5-minute time frame, from the sell-off to the recovery to the sell-off to the recovery to now the sell-off once again. Now, we're incredibly oversold. In my opinion, the risk is too high to continue to short down here. It's just my two cents. If you want to continue to short, you're an adult, you can do whatever it is that you want. But, it's oversold enough that I can entertain the idea of going long. I already announced my next series of trades with to my LPP team. But again, this is why I think it's so important to be self-aware of not just direction being in your favor, but also understanding the risk to reward. Yes, markets can continue to sell off, but knowing how much recovery potential there now is, if the Federal Reserve does pause, how will markets react? Will they celebrate? Or will they continue to fall? Right? There is a lot of fear in the market, and that's one thing that we do have to pay very close attention to. Breaking South Korea um holds an emergency meeting today after its stock market has lost nearly 30 uh I'm sorry, 40% from its recent peak. The government is stepping in. It's happening, right? This is happening everywhere. South Korea, Taiwan, Japan market, all of them are crashing significant amounts, right? We got SanDisk down 58% since June 22nd from its all-time highs, right? SanDisk is down 30% alone this week. One of our LPP traders asked me this morning, "Why do you like trading Micron and not SanDisk?" SanDisk, in my opinion, is a lot more volatile. I don't think volatility to that degree is great for everyone, right? Just like you see some traders using leverage or leveraged ETFs with this volatility. I think it just adds to the risk. I get it that if it's in your favor, it goes well. But, if it's not in your favor, as again, it's not always going to be, it feels terrible, right? So, I like trading Micron cuz although it is volatile, it's not as volatile as some of the other. And again, I wanted to show you guys some of the drawdowns. What are you doing, right? Are you buying the dip or are you still staying away? There's no right or wrong. It's all based off of, you know, what you think is likely to happen shortly after maybe this fear settles in, right? Sandisk down 50%. SKHY down 47%. Samsung, Micron, Intel, Western Digital. Again, they're taking a major beating. And then Michael Burry says that Nvidia's 5-year credit default swaps are surging because the company is overreaching to sustain circular AI spending. So again, it's just very interesting how everything is beginning to unfold. But again, time will tell. Stay patient, be intentional, and don't use leverage. There's nothing wrong with buying the dip, just like I don't believe there's anything wrong with shorting the market right now. Just don't do it in an aggressive way that if direction turns against you, you end up regretting it. In my opinion, and again, just my opinion, I think it does make more sense to entertain the idea of going long at these oversold levels than it does to go short. I think the idea of continuing to short when markets are already incredibly oversold, the risk is just too high from what we've seen recently. Markets are always eager to recover, and of course, if other catalysts get announced where things are actually a lot worse than what was expected, right? Like today, we have Microsoft and Meta reporting earnings. If they report something that was not factored in, then yes, it could produce another leg down. I talked about it this weekend where I would rather invest in an area or a price range that's a fair price and not over-leverage myself and not buy too much, and know that it can get worse before it gets better. Respecting that, again, it might not be the best price or the cheapest price, but it's a fair enough price that long-term we could recover from it. And that's the part that really does excite me is that we do have some of these companies that are down a significant amount. I want to remind you, watch that position size, don't use leverage, and again, if you're positioned well, and if you can tolerate the time, it's not going to be easy cuz again, more downside can present itself, but it should be exciting when you begin to look at the upside and recovery potential. That shouldn't discourage you from managing risk or bag holding um or trying to bag hold and excuse it as that. It's just understanding again, your exposure, your position size, and your plan, the timeline, right? Um right now SanDisk is titter-tottering right around $1,000 per share. If we really do begin to break below 1,000, you know, where does it go from there? SanDisk to me is a higher risk play. Micron to me, in my opinion, is a safer play. But again, if Microsoft and Meta report something that was not expected or they say something in today's FOMC rate decision that was not factored in, it could all trade lower, which is why again, put yourself in a position in which you can tolerate. I think buying less right now is better than buying more. But having some exposure is better than not having any at all. That's the way that I see it. You guys let me know down in the comment section what you think. And again, we have a handful of our traders with an LPP that are doing an absolute amazing job shorting the market, but they're choosing to close their shorts on a daily basis cuz they know and they're respecting how oversold markets are and how eager they've been to recover, right? So, I'm excited to do my part in keeping you guys up-to-date. And again, in just a few hours, hopefully, we can host that live session for you guys for that FOMC rate decision. So again, drop a thumbs up, subscribe to the channel, and we'll do our part in keeping you guys up-to-date. Like always, let's make sure that we end the year on a green note. Take care, team.