AI RALLY SAVED MY STOCK MARKET PORTFOLIO!!

What a great day today for semiconductor and AI stock investors. I mean we had Iran up nearly 30% on the day. Nebius was up over 27%, Coreweave up over 21, Marll over 12, AMD over 13, Micron over 18, and the list goes on and on. And to me, this is a perfect example why I don't try to time the market. I'm not here trying to sell stocks um when things go bad. I kind of just stick with my overall bullish thesis. And if I'm going to be honest, after all the recent earnings, and that's what I want to talk about today that we've had this week, the bullish thesis is very much intact. So, let's take a closer look in today's episode. But before we begin, if you're serious about semiconductor and AI investing, I break down major earnings and conferences inside my community. Institutional quality research built for retail investors. Get 33% off at whatthechip.com. So, first, let's talk about some interesting news in the overall market. So, Leopold, which is a very famous AI investor, let me just say I have not I did not hear about this guy until uh I would say two months ago where two months ago I really started to hear about him uh because supposedly he was taking puts on the AI semiconductor market and every AI bear that I knew uh was kind of using this, hey, this is the postage child of AI stocks. Now he instead of buying AI chip companies, he's actually buying puts. And that was the first time I I I pretty much listened to him. If I'm going to be honest, it's very rare for me to know any investor, right? I really don't focus on what anybody else is doing. I focus on my overall bullish thesis. I focus on earnings. I focus on transcripts and data provided by actual use cases. It's very rare for me to ever hear about something else unless unless you you kind of see an amplification of noise on it on X and I think about two months ago an amplification of this came out when he bought puts. Uh so again I don't really follow it but it seems like he was extremely leveraged. That leverage caused him to really see a lot of pain during this kind of negative downtrend in the AI and semiconductor industry. and he was pretty much uh another company came and bought all his stocks at a extremely extremely cheap price or his whole portfolio. Uh so that's the big news there. I don't have anything much more to share but I do want to share about recent earnings. So we had recent earnings from Amazon, we had recent earnings from Microsoft, we had recent uh earnings from Meta and all three companies have shared what I believe is an extremely bullish case in the semiconductor industry and for the AI trend in general, right? Why am I extremely extremely bullish? Now if you want to get deep research into the semiconductor industry, I have created one of the greatest AI and semiconductor research community out there. What thechipappen.com? Now, while we do focus mainly on research and kind of understanding transcript conferences and see the bullish thesis out of there, we do have a channel that is focused on commentary of what we're doing in the stock market. Right? If you're looking for stock picks, probably not the channel for you. If you're looking for a community to share what they're doing, even I shared yesterday, I said this, probably the heaviest I've bought in a while. sold big semiconductor ETFs which tend to be my low beta names and bought nice positions of coreweave and I rent and I've been kind of sharing when I buy others also do and today I mean obviously those are paying out so again it's not a buy service it's pretty much a research service and a place where we have a community where we share commentary of what we're doing a lot of earnings deep dives in there already in the channel now kind of focusing on today's earnings let's start off with today's earnings because today's and were Amazon right Amazon was the big player today and after hours the stock is up over 9%. They had an amazing amazing report mainly because of what I believe is extreme confidence, right? They gave extreme confidence towards investor. I feel like every other cloud player in the AI industry right now has kind of given us a look AI is real but if it's not real, we're going to tone down. We're going to do free cash flow positive with Microsoft said we have the ability to do this with compute instead. Amazon, in my opinion, in the earnings call that I listened to today, they were just pure confidence. They were like, "Look, this is the AI market, right? This is the AI market. We believe it's going to be massive. We're going to invest like crazy and these are the returns that we're seeing right now." Like, I feel like there wasn't a plan B from Amazon. They are pure investment mode and they're giving this confidence to their investors as well. So to me, I think that was one of the biggest things that I got from Amazon. And that's why I enjoy listening to earnings calls and reading transcripts, right? Because [snorts] many people even on popular X, right? Some of these big ex followers, they just see one quick tibbit from the earnings call, they copy and paste it, and they think they know everything about the earnings call. I try to listen to how management says something, why they said something, what triggered them to say something and I think that explains a lot of how they're seeing the future of AI. Uh so Amazon some of the big things right when they started off the earnings call one of the things they mentioned is AWS which is booming right now and they will share the numbers later on they they wanted to sh tell us that they see they're very excited about the ROI equation even with heavy capex next few years. So Amazon they came and telling us that look you you might expect us to be doing weakened capex or slowing down capex is not it's going to be extremely heavy for the next few years. During the call they also did increase their capex by 20 billion for this calendar year. Um they did mention it was mainly due to memory prices which certain bears can argue and say look this is all the capex growth is is kind of happening due to inflation in price and I think in short term that is true in the long term with the heavy capix that they're mentioning I don't think it's mainly due to inflation inflationary prices of chips and memory I think it's just purely because of more compute that they need now bears can read that completely different the other thing that they mention is that even with all the demand that they're all the compute that they're building, they does not have capacity to meet all the demand in 2026, I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027. In fact, the demand we already have for 2028 is striking. That to me, right, that they they don't have enough demand for 2026. The dynamic will continue in 2027. even after right even after the heavy capex that they're projecting to build they still expect to be capacity short and what they're seeing in 2028 is already great news for them. So to me that gives me that underlying truth that we are in a compute constraint space and even if the short-term capex growth is mainly driven by memory inflation prices the rest of the years is driven by an acceleration of compute demands. The final thing and this is why like I mentioned Amazon really kind of gave you this picture of where AI is going. They mentioned we long believe AWS could become a few hundred billion dollar business. Now believe it, it will be at now believe it. We will be at least double that and very possibly be a one trillion annual revenue business for us in time with very appealing accompanying free cash flow and return on invested capital. So for the first time we have seen at least a possibility of where the cloud business can grow for this true giant. And this is to me the confidence that they're portraying, right? They're giving this confidence that this is the number we're going to get because of these AI investments in the future. And this is why we're not slowing down in capex. So it gives that confidence opposed to like Microsoft which mentions, hey, look, if if there's ever a shortage, uh if there's no longer a shortage, we can do this and optimize this instead or we can stop buying this. And I believe Meta says, hey, if there if we are over supply, we can start selling compute. Amazon didn't give a and issue. They said we are gonna do this and that's it. Uh so that confidence in my opinion makes me extremely excited about Amazon. I've actually even though I am bullish in am in Microsoft due to price reaction. Um I'm actually not that bullish anymore due to the hesitation of acceleration in capex from Microsoft. I think if they hit the gas pedal and Microsoft has done this already in the past year or two and they kind of costed them a bit with Azure growing only selected the numbers. I well again I'm still very bullish on Microsoft but if I only had to pick one player to win right now I think it would be Amazon because they have their foot on the pedal. Now Microsoft also had a a a great day right? They just reported earnings yesterday. Microsoft stock was up roughly 15.5% on the day. Now back to $451. Pretty impressive for a $3.3 trillion company. Now Microsoft they they they did give a bit of a like I mentioned a little bit of hesitation. First they mentioned they still believe they're going to be free cash flow positive even with these investments. The second things they did not increase calendar year 2026 capex but they did mention that fiscal year 2027 capex will grow right will grow. Uh so if you kind of put those together calendar year ends about 6 months from now their fiscal year just started so they have about 12 months from now. So pretty much what they're telling us is for the next two quarters, capex is not going to grow compared to what they originally estimated. It's still growing, right? Because I believe this past quarter they did uh $41 billion in capex and I think next quarter they're doing 51 billion. So you're still seeing sequential growth. When they meant no growth, it was more no change compared to the crazy number they had already given us. Now bears are running with this and saying it's extremely extremely bearish. I see it a completely different way. Remember, Microsoft doesn't have a true AI chip itself, right? A customized AI chip. Amazon does and Google does. They can only buy selected amount of GPUs out there. So, for them, they have to really they're they're really at a mercy of how much they can buy while the other players can actually accelerate and see other demand solutions with those other chips that they're building. Maybe this forces Microsoft to focus more on their AI chip demand, but I don't see any negative bearish sentiment here. Uh Azure grew 43% uh uh compared to a year ago and that is an accelerated growth, right? Historically we've been stuck at around 39%. Meta Meta also did something. So Meta did increase the bottom end of their copics, not the top end. Uh but what they mentioned what I what I thought was important was this. They mentioned that the industry has underbuilt historically for the wave of AI adoption making existing capacity including our own extremely valuable. So whoever has compute right now is sitting in pretty much gold. Right? So I this is what gets me really excited about the NeoCloud players because there's an underbuilt happening. He also goes on to say that longer term the supply chains need to be built out to support the capacity that we anti that we anticipate we and others will need for AI powered experiences. So pretty much he's saying we've underbuilt and not only have we underbuilt the supply chain right now is pretty much not in par of what we need it to be to be able to build the capacity that not only we need but other players are going to need in this AI race. So to me this is again continuing to tell us a few things. First AI shortage is going to continue for the foreseeable future. Meta's telling us this. Um Amazon told us this, Microsoft kind of told us this. Google told us this for sure. So four big play at least three of the four players have told us that this is extremely computed and that's not counting kind of the other earnings we've heard right. We kind of heard very similar from TSM. We heard very similar stuff from Intel. We heard very similar from a lot of semiconductor companies that have also reported AMD with their AI events shared similar thoughts. So are they all lying to us? Are they all seeing the wrong thing? I don't think that's possible, right? I don't believe the cycle is always going to go up, right? And I I think there's going to be little bumps and drops be between here and in 2027 and 2028, but I'm very bullish in the companies that I own uh because of this type of data that we're getting. So, um, yeah, let me know in the comments below. Are you guys looking to buy, sell? What are you planning on doing? Even though we've had a crazy runup and obviously with the crazy runup, I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow we maybe see a little bit of a cool off. 27% for certain companies is wild. But still, at the same time, many people can say, look, even after a 27% drop in the past five days, Nebus is still down roughly 13%. Right? I the market is just that crazy. Uh coreweave is still down about 7%. Um Marll is still down about 10%. So we're even though we've had this massive rally, we're still nowhere near the levels we were just a week ago. Um so I still believe right it's a small blip. I'm excited. I'm happy. I'm happy the bleeding stopped, but it doesn't mean the bleeding is done for now. So for me, I still go on not feeling any FOMO. If I was to buy anything right now, it would still be dollar cost average. If I feel fear, extreme fear again like we saw just yesterday, I would definitely go a little bit heavier. But because I did go heavier yesterday, right? Because I did go heavier yesterday, I am not going as heavy in the upcoming days. Uh, so take care, have a good day, and see you all next