AMD, SpaceX, Palantir: What Beat, What Missed, What I'm Buying!

I've got a doozy for you guys. We have earnings from SpaceX, Astera Labs, AMD, Arista Networks, and more. And I want to go through it. It's been an absolute face ripper today. The Nasdaq up 2.59%. S&P up almost 2%. Dow up 1.71%. You're seeing headlines come across already. SpaceX revenue jumps 92% in the first earnings report since IPO. Now, of course, this is still going to be a very polarizing stock. revenue though, 7.81 billion versus 6.93 billion expected. A question for you, if you own SpaceX or maybe you've talked about it, maybe you've been a bull or a bear, you've talked about it online, can you tell me based on the S1 filings and the IPO, what percentage of the TAM or total addressable market of SpaceX is actually ex actually space? What percentage of the TAM for SpaceX is actually about space exploration and putting rockets into orbit? Can you answer that question on a quiz? It's about 7% and it's a little less than that, but 93% is AI. So essentially XAI and Grock, a lot of people don't know that. Of course, it's not profitable. Loss of 9 cents per share. So, when I look at SpaceX and what the stock's doing right now, SPCX stock, you can see it's down about 4.7% after hours 125. It's still an expensive stock, $1.65 trillion market cap. If I look at something like maybe the profit margins on here, you're rocking 48%. It's still burning cash like $400,000 net per employee. uh valuation wise well we're not profitable price of sales forward this number is going to change after earnings but it was rocking at 38 you know so and at this point about 95% of the shares are still locked up so over the course of the next year or so you're going to see these shares unlock and I think you're going to see extreme wild volatility with SpaceX with all that said if you guys remember I did give you some projections an estimate for entertainment purposes only I said SpaceX would open around where it opened and that it would come back to closer one trillion dollar market cap. Now, we're not there yet. We're still at 1.65 and maybe you don't get quite to 1.65 because we keep getting earnings reports, but I do think there's a decent chance you see the stock under $100 a share. It was at 104.83 and you'd have to be at about $77 per share to get to roughly a trillion dollar market cap. So, could it get to say 90 and be a little over a trillion? I think there's a decent chance. And of course, this is just educated guess, right? When I look at the future of SpaceX, there is definitely a case that you can make for the company having a $5 trillion market cap in say 2030 to 2032. But obviously that's a long ways from now, you know. So, if you're one of those people looking for a stock to buy now that goes up tomorrow, this is probably not going to be your huckleberry. Now, Astera Labs just reported as well. So, looking at Astera Labs, you know, it's up about 5.62% right now that this has been an absolute roller coaster. An absolute roller coaster. So if I look at the chart on this Astera Labs, you guys remember we bought this stock originally it was something like back here and I think we started buying it close to like 80. It dropped all the way to 47 and got the cost basis in the 60s. Thing ripped up. We sold some shares not exactly at 262 but we sold some shares. It came back I said $150 or less DCA that 50% retracement got to 97. So, buying in this kind of 150 to 100 range and the thing just rocketed up to $499. Definitely trimmed some but never perfect. I think I trimmed some like $400, maybe $450. I did not catch $49948. Maybe you did. Uh, but then it's of course pulled back and recently it went from $499 all the way to $250. So, another 50% retracement. And it's kind of funny because you've seen three 50% retracements play out not perfectly but play out very well where if you start taking these numbers and looking at retracement patterns and fibs, the numbers have been playing out. Now, when we do as long-term investors, we look at charts as the last 1%. Right? So, we're not using charts to just buy stocks. We're looking at them after we've done all our homework and due diligence saying, you know, what are what are good areas to maybe buy or sell, good entry, exit points. And the thing is is this is going to have crazy volatility. You can see the the current R3 fib is 564. Previous is 624. I mean this thing is absolutely just high beta. High beta. Speaking of high beta, I'm going to talk about another stock in a second that we bought some shares last week that's been on a absolute tear here. But Asera Labs uh you can see 104.5% year-over-year beat by 31.5 million 31.59 million on that revenue. And you look at the non-GAAP EPS 80 cents beat by 11 cents. Shares have been volatile up. They were up 12.65% on the news now 3.41 all over the place. So last Thursday this stock got down to about $76. So, if you're looking at this fiveday chart, you can see here it dropped down. It got to $74.50 on July 29th, it looks like after hours. Um, so last week we were buying this in the community portfolio. First buy was like $82 and then um from there kind of dollar cost average some down. And you can just see here, this is in Discord. Obviously, these numbers are higher now because the stock's higher, but you can kind of see where we bought. Um 7647 all the way to 81.97. So, the cost basis is $794 and it's already at 131 bucks. So, you can do the math on that. At one point, it was like 75% in three, four trading days. Pretty pretty insane volatility and beta on this stock. So, um, you're looking at where it could go if you do do own some of this, it's hard to kind of chase it after a big run like that. But when you look at this and say, you know, what are the possibilities on a chart? Um, well, the previous all-time high was 233. This is the old Fibonacci R3 at 244. Uh, that current R3 you can see is 177. Doesn't mean it has to go there. And this R2 is closer to about 150 bucks. So 150 and 177 potentially on the upside. It depends on how momentum. This is very much a momentum stock. It also had extremely high uh short interest. So kind of a short squeeze that you're seeing right 12.36% still. The last time I looked at this it was like 16%. So we have shaked out about 4%. But this thing's just been you know on it's been crazy 1% performance. 493%. And it's just been one of these photonix players that has been, you know, on fire with a lot of them. And you have to be careful with these stocks because they go up fast, they go down fast. You really have to build a, you know, blueprint, a portfolio. Do your research. I've done a lot of research on these photonics players. And Patreon, if you're interested, go read up on some of that. But I do like these things as long-term investments in more of a speculative type play. If you look at the community portfolio and discord and you go to this morning, this three trading days, 75% this morning on AOI, it's pretty insane. But there was this post here in Discord from this person here that was sharing, let me just make my camera a little smaller so you can see. This is talking about basically officially a ban that could be happening on US imports of new China models, data center, new models of Chinese data center components. And this would include photonix transceivers, optical transceivers. So you saw names like lummentum, coherence, ai, max linear, some of these types of names, but mostly uh coherence, lum and this ai is kind of what you're seeing mostly today. Um, so AOI was up just today. It was up something like 20%, 19.4%. You can see it's down slightly after hours. That's definitely traders taking profits like, you know, day traders and stuff. And we generally don't trade in fired up wealth, just as an FYI. If you do, it's whatever. It's your money. Um, looking at the next one, it's light. This is Lummenum. You can see this was also up, but not nearly as much. 8.92%. And then this one, Coherent is a fired up wealth favor. We've owned this one since in the 60s in the community portfolio. Uh that was up 12.27% today. And don't forget about Palunteer. Palencer had a great day after strong earnings last night. Up 29.45% in a single day up to 162. So if you look at this in the last month, you know, 22% rip here. Uh if I look at one year, you know, it's pretty much flat. But this is quite the aggressive bounce here in one day. Up something like 29 and a half% on Palunteer. And if I look at Palanteer earnings, they were actually pretty good. I'm going to go back to the Discord. Eric stock only and DD channel. Now, these are the premium channels. So, you might be in Discord and not see these. You want to be in the premium. The only way to get that is going to be uh through Patreon. So, there's a link that's com that's pinned in the comments. Definitely check that out if you're interested. But you can see 94% year-over-year beat on revenue, which is a massive beat. US revenue grew 115%. Um, that's just for US revenue. Commercial revenue 149%. And 28% quarter quarter. Government revenue 90%. That's impressive. Usually the government revenue is not nearly as large. You're seeing growth in that commercial, but you're seeing nice growth on Both commercial and government. closed 220 deals of at least $1 million, 98 deals of 5 million, and $73 of 10 million. Massive, massive numbers from Palanteer. Of course, the stock on paper isn't cheap, but you can say that in a bull market a lot of stuff. And you have to be really careful with Jason a lot of these stocks because now Palanteer, you're gonna use EVNTM revenue, but it's over a 50x on that number. A lot of people are going to say, "Well, the PE is high." Well, yeah, it is. that it the fact that it even has a PE is a positive thing for a SAS company, especially a gap for PE of 92. That's not cheap, but remember this is recurring revenue and you're generally going to look at those SAS metrics. So, this stock is something 50 plus. I'd have to do some some math on it, but you know, profitability 84% recurring revenues, high profit margins, A+ the growth rates really strong. You saw some of those numbers and see some of these projections here on Seeking Alpha. So, Palanteer is doing really well. Long since $10 in Discord on that one. That's been a really good performer for us. The other one I want to talk about is Arista Networks. And then we need to go check out AMD. Arista Networks up 13% $215 after hours. Um, this is one we just recently did a video. You guys remember? I'll find it for you so you can check it out. So, if you haven't seen this one, go check it out. If you are in Discord, you can go into the YouTube videos channel and you can see all the recent videos we've done on YouTube. Of course, we also have Patreon where we do videos there. But these are all the free videos on YouTube. And this video here called the next AI cycle is here. One of those stocks was Arista Networks AET. And yes, I said on there that we weren't necessarily buying at those prices, but if I didn't own those stocks, those are stocks I'd want to be buying on a dip. We just had a nice dip. and a lot of these AI players and you can see you know down to the 100 day moving average which would have been you know in hindsight if you didn't take advantage of some of those opportunities the last couple weeks you're probably having some FOMO right now be careful of FOMO fear of missing out because you can see this stock just ripped guys from 155 to 212 very hard to chase it at 212 but you know even if you thought it was expensive made fun of the video because I was talking about it when it was $150 $160 here it is at 212 And I do think Arista Networks is going to be a beneficiary as long as those as well as those other four stocks I talked about in that video. Now, Astera Labs, Arista Networks, we talked about AOI, we talked about SpaceX. Let me see if we can find an update here on AMD. So AMD, I'm guessing, has reported by now. I'm doing this right after the market close, trying to bring you an update as fast as I can on this. So, I'm doing this in real time. I'm just trying to get get this out to you. So, this is SpaceX. Let me find AMD here. AMD, bet you it's over here on Seeking Alpha. AMD down 5.7%. Now, this isn't shocking to me because I've been saying I think that, you know, it's still an expensive stock. I like this stock and I think it could easily it could turn around from here. I mean it could reverse being down 5% and it could reverse and be up 10%. Right? But if you look at the fundamentals of the company, you know, 53% profit margin is good, but Nvidia is over 70% as an example. Growth 45 and 35 are good, but you're talking about a 89 gap 4p ratio. And I look at something like Nvidia and those same numbers, you know, you're talking about that same gap 4p ratio as a 21.86 a 29 PEG which is insane and you're seeing a lot of th those low pegs on these semiconductor names. Big AI cycle right A+ here and you got 62%. So Nvidia is growing faster. It's got higher profit margins at 74% and the valuation's quite a bit lower. Now I still like AMD. It's what I think it's my second largest holding in the uh the main, but I and I was hoping it'd go a little higher because I want to trim some more shares, but here we are down about 6 and 12%. Again, not surprising. The stock was just $76 in April of 2025. So, not that long ago at all. So, here they are. Revenue 11.54 billion, up 50% year-over-year. That is strong. And we got non-GAAP EPS beats by 5 cents. This is very much a market market momentum name. So this could easily go a lot lower, but it certainly could turn around tomorrow. The momentum you could see it sell off a little bit and snap back. If I look at like the current R3 Fibonacci 641, previous 681, but then the 200 day moving average, the simple moving average guys is $313. And you see some of these like the S3 Fibonacci in that range 2 339. So, I mean, this is a massive range. You're talking about the 200 200 day simple moving average of 312 in this previous R3 of 681. So, massive massive and you're basically right in the middle here. And it's very normal if you look at 50% retracements. Like if you said this stock ripped from 188 and I'm just doing some napkin math like live on the fly. I'm not editing this at all. And this is just, you know, this is not why you buy or sell a stock. It's just one tool in the tool belt. We always say, but if I take 188 + 584, that's 188 here. 584 here, that's 772 divided by 2, 386. So, does it have to go to 386? No. But would it be unusual to see a 50% retracement that came down to 386 at some point? Wouldn't be unusual at all. Now, with momentum names, the thing about it is they'll keep going higher until they don't. And if enough people say, "Hey, I missed out the first time. I'm not going to miss it this time. I'm going to buy the dip." which I think there's a decent possibility, especially because retail gets really excited about AMD. Would I be shocked if it came down to like 450 and people piled in? No. Would I be shocked if it went down to 350? Not at all. You know, and what it's worth, we could have a debate on that. I think I'll probably avoid that drama on YouTube. It's something that I talk about in the private community all the time. I tell you exactly how I feel about it. Now, I own a big position in AMD, hundreds of thousands of dollars, and I of course want AMD to do well long term, but I do think at $584 that it's a little bit ahead of itself. Now, I posted on social media and I said, "Hey, I've got a bunch of shares here. My cost basis is 70 bucks on AMD. When should I sell?" And I got comments like, "Why would you sell before a trillion dollar market cap?" Definitely don't sell a single share until $750 a share. You're a if you sell. you know, it's going to $5 trillion market cap because Nvidia is five trillion. So, I'm not hating on AMD. I've got a lot more shares than probably anybody watching does. But with that said, it's not a cheap stock. 848 $845 billion market cap before the drop of 6%. It very much is kind of in that cult stock category where you get enough retail behind it, the thing could do anything. It could be an $800 stock. It could be a $300 stock and sentiment is going to drive 60 to 70% of the short-term movement. We know that even as long-term investors, we know that sentiment is going to control the narrative in the short term, which is why it's so hard to be a trader because as a trader, you have to try to guess what everybody else is going to do, which is difficult to do. If I'm an investor and I'm going off of both quantitative and qualitative analysis both and I'm using a little technical sprinkled in and I'm using discipline and I'm trying to understand companies, the competition, what something's worth, I'm going to increase my odds of success to be a long-term investor. I posted something here recently on Grock and I said why you don't buy and hold forever. Now, this I posted originally in 2024 and it got like 500,000 views. I posted it again. This is basically using the same post from two and a half years ago, just a carbon copy. I reposted it and it got 169,000 views since August 3rd, since yesterday, so in a day. And people go insane over this post because it's toys Toys R Us, Radio Shack, and Blockbuster. Now, you're going to get comments, some really nasty comments in here. Some I probably can't even show you on on YouTube because it's familyfriendly here and X not so much. But there are a lot of negative comments and a lot of these comments are just saying like you should just buy ETFs, you know, you should just do this, you should just just buy diversified ETFs. And I would say that for most people that's probably good advice, but if you read this, it's a thread. And what I'm saying is don't buy and hold forever. I want you to buy, hold, and monitor quality companies. Never have the mindset that you're going to buy and hold individual stock forever. People try to marry their investments. This is not your spouse. It's not until you know what do us part. Can't say that word on YouTube either. You know, you don't marry your investments. You marry your spouse and try to stay married them forever, not your investments. And people will say things like, "Let's let's find a couple of these. These are always fun. I mean, a lot of these comments actually have been deleted, but like now do Nvidia. Should we tell them that I bought Nvidia at $364 and that I've got, you know, half a million dollars just in one account in Nvidia, that's pure profits and I've sold a ton of shares. Should I tell them that or not? You know, long 364 since Nvidia, but it's still not buy and hold forever forever. It's buy, hold, and monitor. So the message here is not that you can't own individual stocks. It's that you shouldn't fall in love with your investments and say I'm never selling. And you see headlines even on YouTube, five stocks to buy now and hold forever. Don't buy into that hype. Buy, hold, and monitor when that it's a tool. Money is a tool to get what you want out of life. An investment, a stock is a tool to also help get what you want out of life. As soon as that company breaks down the fundamentals, right, those fundamentals start to deteriorate. That tool is no longer serving its purpose for you and giving the returns. Now, that's a slippery slope because you might hold a high quality company that trades sideways for a couple years. So, don't get it twisted. I had to hold Nvidia since 2017 with lots of ups and downs, but I believed in the company, right? And so, you have to build that blueprint, have that mindset. But it's crazy how many people misconrue posts like this. they don't read the the the thread and they jump to conclusions. I'm a long-term investor. You guys know the story. I've retired from corporate at 42 because of individual stocks, but I personally I'm against the buy and hold forever. Even though I've held stocks like Microsoft, Nvidia for sometimes 10 plus years. You know, I'm a very much a long-term investor, but never in my opinion buy, hold forever. It's buy, hold, and monitor. So, crazy earnings. I'm sure you're going to see some more pin action. I wanted to bring you an update on these four or five stocks. Thanks for watching, guys. 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