Tom Lee and Josh Brown Just Dropped Their August Market Outlook! (08/06) + Stock Market Analysis

Blue cloud trading [singing] through the night. >> Welcome back to the channel, everyone. >> [music] >> In just a second, I'm going to play a few CNBC clips for today's episode of the Halftime Report. I'm going to pull up the charts and dive into the technicals of some of the mentioned stocks. We're going to look at the key support, resistance levels, momentum, and see if the price action actually backs up what the talking heads are saying. Hit that like button, subscribe if you haven't already, and let's roll the tape on the first clip. >> so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner, front and center this hour, debating the road to S&P 8000. We will do that today with the investment committee. We'll trade the day's biggest movers, and joining me for the hour, >> [music] >> Josh Brown, Malcolm Ethridge, Bill Baruch. Show you what we're doing here. We do have some red on the screen today, and it is across the board. Tech is weak for Western Digital talking about. Sandisk and Western Digital are certainly a drag there. We're about 54,000 on the Dow. We're still pacing on the S&P here for the best week since April. We've had a lot of calls, Josh, lately about 8000 on the S&P. Uh Yardeni's at 8250 says that could be conservative. You've called it one of the healthiest, if not the healthiest, tapes that you've seen in an awfully long time. Uh Tom Lee says you could hit 8000 this month. And earnings are the story. They're the story in all caps. >> Yes. >> Because the growth has been pretty remarkable. About 50% in the second quarter. If you strip out Google and Amazon and their investment gains, it's at 31%. July 1st, it was 24.4. So, estimates continue, and growth continues to go up, and that's driving the market. >> So, I have my contras. Do you guys have contras, like people that you know are always wrong, but you listen to them anyway, cuz they make you feel better? You have like one or two. I know you do. Sneaky, but like everyone So, I have my contras, and they have it's really helpful, actually. They have podcasts, so it's super convenient. I don't have to track down their comments on social media. I can just listen to a steady stream of it. And the people in 2024 that were lamenting the fact that it was a hyper concentrated bull market, just mag seven, it's all hyper scalar, right? Those people, and they didn't like the fact that the market was being driven at that phase of the rally by PE multiple expansion, well, they changed their tune cuz now it's not. We actually have multiples compressing. What we have is massive earnings expansion all over the market. And so what they're saying instead now is earnings bubble. It's hope you can't win with these people. But I again, I find that to be a helpful exercise. Let me listen to this guy. Everything he says is backwards. That's what they're saying now. If that's the problem, if there's too much earnings, I'll take it. And I want to be really specific here about what's going on. Let's take out Google and Amazon earnings because we know they wrote up their stakes in Anthropic and other startups, and that's not obviously repeatable or something that we want to get too excited about. Even if you pull those out, the S&P 500's earnings growth is still 28.8%. For next quarter, the analysts are already increasing estimates. Normally, analysts reduce estimates during the quarter. They lower the hurdle, make it easier for their coverage universe to jump over. They're not doing that now. For Q2 and for Q3, analysts spent the quarter revising estimates upward. They have to. They're listening to management. In the last 80 quarters, that's 20 years worth of data, the average change in estimates for the first month of the quarter has been negative 1.9%. That's the average. Right now, it's up 2.1% in this quarter for next quarter's numbers. This is These are unheard of times. So, I understand the the impulse, oh, well, I can't be wrong, so therefore, it's an earnings bubble. I understand. I just caution people who are listening to that rhetoric from actually acting on it because it's been wrong all year so far. I think it'll stay wrong throughout the balance of this year. We have an earnings driven market. All 11 sectors are reporting year-over-year sales growth, revenue growth. We're not talking about games, tricking people, stock-based compensation, buybacks. We're talking about sales growth of plus 14% in the quarter. You can't fake revenue. You could fake earnings, but that's not what's happening so far. >> Lee are on the same wavelength as he says, Malcolm. There are some investors criticizing S&P 500 earnings quality. Our analysis shows there are sizable contributions coming from investment gains, but keep in mind to Josh's point, organic EPS growth is still 21% in the second quarter of 26 so far, and 2027 EPS estimates are still rising. We're dip buyers. We see the S&P reaching 79 to 8,000 this month. Make sense to you? >> I don't disagree with the premise. I think that what the market is showing right now is that as long as the four main hyperscalers who are throwing trillions of dollars at the problem, trying to create as much compute as possible, continue to reaffirm their spending plans and also increase them as we just got basically from all of them through the last earnings period, that is reason to feel bullish. It's obviously trickle-down economics. It's going to go through the second and third-order effects. All the different companies, Caterpillar, for example, is having its best year probably ever because of Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta spending as much as they are on the build-out. At the risk of sounding like one of Josh's beloved contras, though, I will say I think that that probably is through the end of this year. So, yes, >> isn't the point though, isn't the point isn't the point that what was perhaps focused all around what you're saying is now broadened. Like the earnings growth was a tech story and felt like it was a tech only story. But to John Waldron's point, president of Goldman, who we ran the soundbite of yesterday, um double-digit earnings growth is propelling markets and it's broadening out. It's no longer just a a tech story. So, I think that's sort of the point that John >> Allstate and is Allstate and MetLife selling GPUs? >> Allstate and MetLife I I So, I really believe the story of insurance companies as an example of companies that are using AI, turning it on their businesses, weaponizing it against the problems that they once had, and using it to get more efficient. So, their operating margins are getting far better. The point though is that the market only cares about one particular theme right now, and it's trickling through all the other different sectors that touch the AI revolution. >> it has happened to be like one of the most powerful themes in the history of I think every and I'm not saying that it's the United >> United States economy. >> I think every bull market is that though. >> I'm not saying that it's not warranted. So, I want to make sure that I'm clear about this. I think that we could get to 8,000 very soon because of the belief in what we're looking at right now. The question is when does it stop? And I think that's the part that the bullish folks like a Tom Lee, for example, are not necessarily looking that far out and saying. They're saying this particular quarter, we get to 7,900, 8,000, and we'll see where we go from there. I agree with that. But I think beyond that is where we have to have the conversation of what causes that to slow down if the spending slows down cuz I think there is a pull for it that has happened. There's a lot of companies, like I just mentioned the four major hyperscalers, that have pre-funded a lot of their purchases for next year this year. They pulled it all into this year because they'd rather pay today's elevated price versus next year's elevated price. They'll take the known known versus the unknown unknown of next year's prices, and I think we have to consider how much of the additional spending at like a caterpillar, I'll use them again, or a Corning for example, those kinds of companies that are third order effects, how much of that spending that has reached them already is going to slow down because the companies accelerated this year and they won't do it again next year. >> See, you highlighted the earnings story right now. And I think that's a good tailwind. 2 weeks ago we put out I put out a weekly letter to to my clients and I highlighted three things. Back away from the forest, you got to see the trees here. And the three things that are important are worse than misunderstood. This was ahead of the Fed meeting and I I think that right the expectations for hawkishness were really offsides. Right now even still, there's expectations of better than 50 cent 50% probability that the Fed hikes in September. And we do have a Jackson Hole and we'll we'll start to see a little bit more there. >> What's offsides about that when the FT's reporting today according to their sources that he's prepared to hike in September if inflation remains hot. So, the sounds to me like the market's exactly onside. >> it's not hot yet. So, well, we're going to get more data. It is hotter than than uh it's hotter than 2%. >> But if you look back we look you'd admit that right? >> Yeah, we looked at Fed chair Powell and his we called it coming coming to Harvard moment when he said specifically that oil price shocks are not to be controlled by monetary policy. And that was very bullish for the market. So, I think they're going to try to look through the oil rise that we >> Well, they obviously are but there is inflation that is in other parts of the economy beyond oil. >> And there's also disinflation with it within certain certain components within that. So, I think the the inflation the nonfarm payroll coming up, the inflation data which what I believe will be next week or about a week and a half away, that's going to be critical and I don't see that being a catalyst for a hike. Now, they are putting out and then when I say misunderstood, they are putting out these anecdotes that come off more hawkish in the near term and I think that's going to become incrementally walked back. I think you're going to see that become a a tailwind into the midterms. That being factor number one. Factor number two is President Trump, whatever is going to he's going to have to do, they're going to have to engineer some sort of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which is which is starting to show the market's going to find that favorable. Trump does not want voters at the ballot box in the midterms with war with the war taking place in the middle of the war and and oil above $90. That So, I think that's going to be a tailwind as well. There's no better way to goose the economy when you look at those two. And then the factor number three is what we've learned from earnings as as emphasized as well is the market's compute constrained. The AI build-out is very compute constrained. Alphabet even said on their earnings call that that they're going to purchase more compute while they build out their compute. So, I and you look at names like like Meta, they're leaning into I think being a maybe a 2027 story, but they're going to sell compute. So, I I think the AI story 2 weeks ago when when the SMH was was what, 25% from its highs, we were looking at, okay, some of this is overdone, and these are the three pillars to look be bullish at going into the midterms. And now we have this massive move off the lows in a very short period of time. Those three pillars have not changed. They are going to be the catalyst to take us 8,000. >> the the the 30-year, which is now at 521, uh would would, you know, certainly reflect the fact that the market thinks that there's a predisposition at this point on the Fed to be more hawkish than not. You you'd you'd agree with that. >> right now they're it it could be a headfake. You know, I as a as a trader, um I'm looking at my commodity portfolio and I'm where is our tail risk? Maybe I'm buying some some 30-year puts way out there as a tail risk to hedge the downside in case this does fall apart, but I don't think meaning 30-year bond prices come down yields break out to the upside. I don't think that's going to happen though. And and when you start to see people that I have utmost respect for like the Jamie Dimons, a lot of bond traders I know, when they get ex- super excited about these rates, they start calling for 7% 10-year. This is this is the breakout they've been waiting for for the last 10 20 years. The heart of their career was was in the middle of rates above 7 to 8% they're going to they're calling for that again and usually that becomes the top in yields. So I'm watching that very closely is this a head fake of a breakdown in bonds and and a breakout in yields or is this something that becomes contained and we start seeing that that rate hike being priced out by the end of the year or at least the first of September and that's a bullish catalyst. Let's not Let's not gloss over why yields are where they are. Obviously there's geopolitical stuff in here which everyone has been able to look past for a year pretty much with the exception of one week in March. But the bigger picture is that the labor market is actually showing signs of re-acceleration despite all of the talk about AI disrupting jobs growth or leading to mass layoffs. None of that is happening. None of it's in the data. Um we actually are looking at incomes in the bottom cohort the bottom decile starting to rise faster than the general population. These are like positive things. These are the things that will help people contend with temporarily higher energy prices. >> Well there are a lot of data points to look at with when it comes to employment and and jobless claims weekly jobless claims we've got we we we digest them we gloss over it though. They're very volatile number. Look at ISM employment report ISM services employment component yesterday came in at 47.4. That was a a contraction in in ISM services employment. I am leaning on you know obviously the month-to-month nonfarm payroll numbers are very volatile >> Throw that out. Listen to the credit card CEOs. We had um we had we had Moynihan tell us there's absolutely nothing going on. Like in terms of delinquencies or people late to pay their bill. There's none of it. There's no sign of it. None of it. Um I know everyone's asking them every quarter. Okay, uh please Jeremy Barnum at JP Morgan. Please tell me this is the quarter where the consumer finally cracked. And we've been asked every quarter he's got to say no. Didn't happen this time either. >> 2022 we've been saying is this finally the moment where the consumer shows their weakness, the credit card balances hitting all-time highs. >> So not yet. Not yet. >> Well, I was going to say I've come to realize that that really doesn't matter in the broader aspect that we're talking about. Like the consumer is showing that their willingness and ability to spend continue to trend upward. And so we've got to go past that. >> Andrew Ross Sorkin asked Dara at Uber yesterday on their after their earnings report, like, are you seeing anything that says the consumer is weaker? He said, "No. They're not trading down. They're not reducing the tipping." Like all of the classic signs that you would expect Uber is, I don't know, a billion transactions per quarter or whatever it is. They're not seeing people stop tipping. They're not seeing people trade down. People that would normally take an Uber Black take a a regular Uber. Like he's not seeing it. And you're hearing this from Target. You're hearing this from Walmart. Like we can sit and read non-farm payroll reports if we want, or we can listen to the people >> The consumer may not be feeling the economy. >> But I don't think the job market's accelerating. I think the data we're looking at is not saying an accelerating job market. >> report tomorrow, so we'll find out what what happens then. The reason why the market's been able probably to to look past a 30-year at at 5.21 or certainly a more hawkish Fed by virtue of, you know, three dissents and some of the other commentary that's come out since that is it just goes back to the earning story. If you didn't have the the durability of the earnings growth that you have had, the market would probably look far different. You also have had these deleveraging moments within within the market. The momentum trade unraveled in in a blink of an eye, came down really hard. You had the hedge fund that blew up. Then you had those as clearing events, but the reason why they weren't more upsetting to the market is because everybody's falling back on what is a healthy market, and that is the deleveraging story. I know you mentioned, you know, Jamie Dimon still talking about leverage in the system and margin debt is is the highest that it's ever been. He told Leslie Picker yesterday. But until the earning story changes, find me a reason to be negative for the second half. >> What I What I've said is that a healthy bull market So we're framing this as like a healthy bull market. A healthy bull [snorts] market takes out its own trash. So we saw a momentary speculative fever take hold. It was predominantly focused on memory chip makers and a lot of it was having having taken place in Korea. And and it People paid for it. Like those 2x leverage stock ETFs, they got wiped out. People in certain options trades got wiped out. We had one notable hedge fund. I think had the biggest trading loss at a hedge fund ever in dollar terms. Like we we had that leverage unwind, but the entire system didn't buckle. I think what's interesting about that margin blowup is part of it was the shorts going against whatever Leopold Ashton Kutcher. Uh The IGV is now 16% below its lows. In April it was 37% off the highs. Think about what a comeback we've seen in software. Situational awareness was not only long memory, it was short software. And those shorts went against. So that's what I mean by an overall healthy bull market. Like I don't know what else you would want to see. >> Well, very healthy rotation. I mean I mean if you look back in the last 2 months, healthcare is up 20% off off the low. So I mean as as other markets the momentum was getting hit, you're seeing that money go elsewhere. And that's really the undertone was saying that this thing's this thing is is is sort of done when that leverage on that deleveraging happened. >> Well, you must think that the momentum unwind is done if you bought Marvell, which was down 37% in July, right? >> Absolutely. Very high quality name. We came into to Tuesday. I mean Monday was a great great day for the market. And then, we didn't want to really buy the name just yet saying I mean, obviously South Korea, let's see how how the night goes and see if there's follow through. You know, of course Marvell was up 14% on on Tuesday. So, we we still bought it. We did we bought half as much as we were we're hoping for, which is a 1% add to our portfolios. I mean, they're emerging as the connectivity backbone with an AI, custom silicon, optical networking, and AI memory solutions. The CXL, compute express link, allows hyperscalers to expand and pool memory outside of processors. It works as a complement with with high bandwidth memory. So, I think that they're going to be a huge leader as this AI build-out continues, and we we want to have that in our portfolio. >> Okay. Malcolm, the other stock that's certainly woken up is Nvidia. Right? You know, Musk praised it on the SpaceX earnings call. If you take a look at what the stock is, up 12% over the past five trading sessions. Don't forget it reports on August 26th. So, it's the only one of the big cap tech at this point that hasn't delivered an earnings report. Is this thing back? >> So, my expectation was as the breakdown was happening in July within all the semiconductor stocks that investors were going to rotate back into the one that really should matter cuz Nvidia is trading now below the rest of the S&P 500 on a from a forward multiple perspective, which is absolutely absurd when you consider it's the largest company in the world by market cap. And also, it's the it's the company that sits at the very center of all of what's going on with the AI revolution. All of the money being spent to put shovels in the dirt and then put chips into data centers. Like, 90% of that is flowing through Nvidia. So, it didn't make sense to me that the stock got so unloved for as long as it did. I'm not surprised to see it trading up into the print, especially since historically it always trades up into the print right before earnings. The surprise will be if it continues to go up into the right after we get the print instead of selling all the chips to China. >> says that it's can keep going. That it finally has momentum and it it can keep going. Now, maybe maybe it it hadn't moved, you know, the way it is now because there just continue to be questions about the circular deals and the the whole nature of that. Don't you think that I mean, that's been kind of a constant drumbeat in the background. >> But if you question that, you have to question the entire thing, right? It did Do we still feel really great about SK Hynix and Samsung or do we not? If you do, then questioning Nvidia's ability to fund its next generation of customers to separate itself from the Metas and the Microsofts that are its largest purchasers at the moment, if you believe in one, you have to believe in the other. >> Malcolm's Malcolm's right. Like we can't pick and choose which aspects of the the overall AI trade. It's like pulling the wrong Jenga piece out. The whole If you the I think the the way to think about this is All right, what's the alternative? You're Jensen Huang. There are 10 Neo Clouds going up data centers for Neo Clouds where it's not Apple it's not Alphabet and Amazon. They don't have their own cash flow. So, they obviously are going to be out there borrowing money. They're working with companies like Blackstone, etc. to finance these facilities. If you're Jensen, do you want Nvidia chips in there or do you want I don't know, Traanium chips in there? Which Which would you prefer? So, it's it's it's it's one or the other. You're the biggest player in this ecosystem, which Nvidia is. They sort of have to go where the market's going. >> like the last one of the mega cap techs that still massively free cash flow positive. So, they still have the ability to lend out dollars in the form of structured loans and all kinds of things. >> billion in free free cash flow. >> Who else has that? >> So, I mentioned, you know, Nvidia did get definitely got a lift um this week off the Musk comments on the the SpaceX call. Well, today's lockup day. It starts, right? It was a peculiar week certainly as you had earnings and then so quickly after followed by what is a stair-step lockup test. I guess we're calling it that. >> At the very least, this one goes in the too hard pile. Like, I don't understand what the opportunity is even here after the share price has gotten cut in half basically since the IPO high. If you just consider the fact that in the last earnings they confirmed, they raised $86 billion, I believe it was through the IPO. Largest IPO raise anybody's ever seen on God's green earth, and they've already spent like a fifth of it in one quarter. So, they're going to need to raise capital again. You got a float going from 5% to 12%. So, if you didn't like it with only 5% of the shares available to trade, you're going to love it at 12% available. >> Well, let me That's a little bit different though in not sort of understanding what the opportunity is. You could You could look at this and say there's a a tremendous opportunity. It may be hard to quantify. Today, >> there's a tremendous opportunity there? Like, what am I missing mathematically that that is suddenly going to change? Yes okay. >> I'm just earning one new launch a year So, don't you understand data centers on the moon manned by humanoid robots? Why is so difficult? >> Like I said, too hard. >> What's your take? That's it? >> I'm like the rational person before the IPO who would come on the desk and put cold water in people's face. >> Oh, you didn't get more hate than I did on that. >> I felt bad at the time, but I was like, "Look, I'm I'm as excited as you are. I want all these innovations. I just I don't know that I want to buy a $2 trillion market cap on 5 billion in revenue and wait for that 5 billion to get to 100 billion and still have an overvalued stock." >> It may be the greatest leap of faith in the history of capital markets. >> think I'm going to get a crack at it under 100. >> add I would add under 100. It's down 50% from the opening from the IPO high. 115 was 115 was my level. >> on IPO day 225, so what? Buy it, put it away. All right, now 109. I'll buy it and put it away. All right, so then what's the difference? If like we're totally insensitive to price, totally insensitive to the valuation, and this is about like the emotional need to belong to the story, then who cares what the price is? >> a good money at 225 argument. This company was that the IPO was engineered to perfection. Right? This was the best we've ever seen the immediate inclusion into the indexes, the 5% float was all you could get, the insiders being locked up and not allowed to even think about selling anything. This is the first crack anybody's going to get at It's [laughter] a syndicate syndicate it's up today after they've unlocked. I mean, I think that's a pretty interesting story. I'd like to see some of the other objectives of >> It's up 85 cents. Give it Give it a few minutes. I I think it's If that's as good as it can possibly get, now we've doubled the amount of money >> You're telling me you you're telling me you didn't imagine it being down 5 to 10% with all the shares unlocked? I think that was a story that people were really worried about. >> knew The market knew it was coming and cut cut in half going >> Exactly. Exactly. That's That's my point. So, 115 was a level that I liked on the way down I mean, from even when it was trading near 200. So, I mean, I I would add a little more below 100. But, here's the I >> What would you tell somebody What would you tell somebody who managed to get 100 shares, 200, 300 shares from their wealth manager at Morgan Stanley, so their print is 135. They didn't sell it, they didn't do anything, they watched it run up, they watched it come back down. Would you tell them right here 108.99, this is the place to average out? >> I I don't know their situation, and I hope they're they're they're They talked through that with their wealth manager to have a long-term wealth manager knows nothing. Well, here Here's the thing. I don't I don't own it. I'm going to pull a McEnroe. Answer the question. I don't own it in [laughter] portfolios. I don't own it in portfolios. I own it for myself for now. But, we got to go. >> I like it under a I like it under 100 depending on why it's under 100. That's That's my answer. >> Okay. All right. >> I like it on on on the with the side of fries. Like give it to me for free, I'll take it. >> Okay. We uh we do have another committee move ahead. It's from Malcolm. We'll tell you about it when we come back. >> That was Josh Brown and a few other guests from today's episode of the Halftime Report. That was the first clip. I'm going to have I'm going to do some technical analysis on some of the stocks and ETFs that they just discussed. 17 listed right here on the left-hand side. And then what I'm going to do is show the the second clip which will also include Tom Lee which came on to Closing Bell today. Today it's August 6th. Right now as I'm recording this it's 6:11 p.m. So the Dow was actually down 0.85%. Nasdaq closed down 0.06 and the S&P 500 was down 0.18. Russell 2000 down 0.51% today. Very briefly, let me show you the heat map. This is what it looks like. Energy stocks were up today. And so was a So were a few software stocks like Microsoft, Apple. Um not a whole lot though. Broadcom was up, AMD was up. Okay, so let's take a look at that list. There Like I said, there are about 17. It's a combination of stocks and ETFs that they just talked about. These top three, all right? Ticker symbol ALL, Allstate Corporation, MetLife, I'm sorry, and Amazon. Those three are the only ones that basically meet the criteria that we're looking for with this indicator Ichimoku which consists of this cloud that you see right here. We want price to be above the green line, above the red line. We want the Chiku Span here, the white line which is the current price projected 26 periods ago to be above the candle 26 periods ago. When you meet all of that criteria all right, it passes the test of the Ichimoku indicator which is a comprehensive on both the weekly when you want you have it passing on both the weekly and the daily chart, that's when I give it a blue flag basically, okay? So, let's look at Allstate here. As you can see, we have a series of higher highs, higher lows on the daily chart. Price was up 4.04% today, gapped up uh as you can see from yesterday. Got back got above that uh nine period, the green line right there. It's looking very bullish. And here's the weekly chart, a series of uh very bullish candles. So, I like that one. Uh Amazon. Now, this is a little different, but it does meet the criteria that we're looking for. Um price in fact is above these moving averages. They are in the the correct order, the green line above the red line. And the Chico span there above price. But, the problem here is we've got a shooting star candle. Once we reach that level of 278.56, all right, this prior high, price retracted. So, it hit that level, got a little bit above. Here, we can see the piercing that happened, and then it pulled back. The bears took control. Here's the three-minute chart. As you can see, there was a brief little pop up, and then it boom, just dropped. So Amazon is more likely to actually pull back potentially. It's more likely to pull back. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Um on the weekly chart, you can see that's what it looks like on the weekly, and this is the daily. All right. MetLife is another one that I like. It actually happens to be one of the stocks that's in my portfolio. I thought I would show this showcase this one because it does it's a very pretty-looking chart also. Uh on the daily chart, we can see that series of higher highs and higher lows, right? And so, that's what we're looking for. We want a price and and today was a very bullish day because it broke above this little consolidation area. So, that's very very good. It was up 3.94%. That's the daily chart. Here's the weekly chart, okay? Very nice. Everything looks in order. Now, the rest of these folks, like Caterpillar, all okay, the rest of There's something off technically, and things aren't looking that positive. Uh All right. So, let's talk about those. Like weekly chart here, price has gotten into the two moving averages. So, I wouldn't consider this stock at this point. I would say out of that one. DRAM, the Roundhill Memory ETF on the weekly chart is still under the two moving averages. I would I would skip that one. GLW is also That's Corning Inc. It's been pulling back. One week where where price is moving up now. It's up 0.37% today. Let's look at the daily chart on that one. You can see it's still under the Ichimoku cloud. So, that's bearish territory, basically. You got a series of lower lower highs here. And we haven't taken out this little high, this little tiny high here yet, right? We're fighting resistance there. So, I'd stay out of that one. Uh Google on the daily chart is inside the cloud. But it does look more bullish here on the weekly. Price is above the moving averages and the cloud. But this is not a really you know, positive candle that's forming. They call that a shooting star. All right. Now, there is one more day left uh to before this weekly candle is formed. So, if it can start getting bullish tomorrow, that might change the outlook of Google. Um but I'll just show you guys what that kind of looks like here on my X page. I've got this cheat sheet that I can share with you guys. Um so, if you go to x.com / bluecloudtrader, you'll find my X page. From here, you just click on the highlights. Now, you can also check out some of my other posts that I have in there. But um and while you're here, why not hit the follow button? But click on highlights, scroll down a little bit, like so, until you find this candle pattern reference sheet. Once you're on that, you'll be able to like memorize or I would recommend that you memorize these candlesticks, right? So, under bearish single candle patterns, that's the shooting star. That's the one I just talked about, the long wick with a small red body. And uh when you see that after a move up, okay, after price has been moving up. You see that candle, it's very bearish. If you see that same exact candle after it's been pulling back, that's called an inverted hammer. Do you see how it's the exact same looking type of candle, but it's all about the positioning. Where is it located in relation to the prior candles? If it's if it's at the bottom of a move, then that's actually bullish, all right? And that applies to a lot of these different candlesticks, the single candle patterns that you see here, like a hammer and the hanging man, same looking candle, um or the spinning top, same thing. All right, let's get back to the charts here. So, Google, we've got a little bit of a shooting star type candle that's forming. I would hold off on this one because it also is inside the cloud currently. And then IGV, that one does look uh a little more positive in that it gapped down, but then the buyers stepped in. So, you can see price had to close um yesterday on Wednesday at that level. It dropped to this level, I'm sorry, down to down to this level here, and then the buyers stepped in. We can see the buying that took place on the 3-minute chart. So, there's the gap down, and it all once it hit this level around 97.62, IGV moved up about 1.9% or so. It was still down for the day though, 1.83. It's something I wouldn't be um adding a position in right now. Here's the weekly chart. Okay, we still have a bearish cloud here on the weekly. Meta, and what is a bearish cloud? That's when you see the Senkou Span A, the light colored blue line under the purple line. So, Senkou Span A is under Senkou Span B. It might look different on your charting platform. I use TC2000. If you guys like this charting platform, I will have a $25 coupon uh link for you guys at the end of the video. So, make sure that you stick around for that. You can find it on my uh YouTube page as well. Uh let's look at Meta. Meta is under the cloud in the weekly. I'd skip Meta right now, okay? It was up just 0.19% today. Marvell, okay, today was uh it looks like a bullish uh Harami, I'm sorry, bullish engulfing pattern that's forming here. Let me show you guys that one. It's two candle pattern. It's this one right here. Bullish engulfing, small red candle followed by a large bullish candle. But, that's on the weekly chart. Um so, the weekly does look pretty good for Marvell. I like Marvell Technology on the weekly because it's there's a higher probability it's going to move up. I wouldn't be adding positions though because if you look at the daily chart, we're still under the cloud. MTUM, you want to get confirmation on two time frames in my opinion. Just so that you have a higher probability trade when you when you're placing that trade. Um and you don't have to rely on just one to make your decisions also. Momentum Factor ETF is under the cloud on the daily. I'd skip that. Nvidia, now here's an interesting thing that happened yesterday that I talked about in yesterday's video. I said, "Price broke this trend line." There's a possibility now that we may see a continued move to the upside. What's interesting is that today, although price was down 0.20% for Nvidia, it did hold up above that trend line. So, it stalled right there. So, we'll see if it can hold up another day tomorrow. Maybe it will go sideways for a little bit before it takes off or maybe it will reenter. We're going to find out. Would I be adding positions here? Not yet because the cloud is still bearish for Nvidia on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, it's starting to look more and more bullish though. This is the trend line right there on the weekly chart that it broke through. Um you know, Friday afternoon, we're going to have an idea of where price is going to basically end up closing around 3:30. That's when I'd be checking on this one. SMH is the semiconductor ETF and this one is still in the downward channel. Uh it's inside the cloud. I would not be adding positions here yet. SOXX is also the semiconductor sector index fund, same situation, right? SpaceX um this one here this is the daily chart it's under the two moving averages in the cloud. Here's the 30-minute chart gives you a little more information about what's going on. Um it has moved up from these lows here from the low of the uh Thursday uh at 10:00 a.m. It moved up about 9.17% from that level, but and it was up 6.14% today, but it's still under the cloud and under that 200-day. I'd stay out of that one. XLK is um let's see here that's the 30-minute let's look at the weekly chart. On the weekly looks very bullish. I like this one. Okay. Oops, hold on. Let me verify that trend line. I got to verify that, folks. Hold on. Here we go. Actually, let me take that back cuz you can see the high of that candle if we zoom in it's just barely under it still. Okay, that's good to know. Um let me throw the daily chart maybe that will give us more insight. Throw it there. Yeah, I think I when I drew this it was based on the daily chart. Um I think it makes more sense to look at this on a weekly level though. There and it's still under that weekly. Let's color it light blue. Just so it's more evident that we're using the weekly chart. So XLK I'd still still hold off on technology at this point. Even though it broke above the Tenkan Sen on the weekly on the daily chart we're still inside the cloud and we have a bearish cloud still for the technology. XLV has a bullish cloud this is the healthcare ETF. But it closed under the nine period today. Here's the weekly chart. Overall I like what's going on. I like to see it close above 165.60, though. All right. So, we're going to watch the next clip, and then I'll do some more analysis right after that. And of course, you'll also get to see another clip from Tom Lee. I'll catch you guys in a few minutes. >> Okay, there is a stock that is down 18% year-to-date. It's been down 8 and 1/2% in 1 week. Reported earnings. Reported increased costs tied to new AI-powered features on its app, and forecast slightly lower subscriber growth than Wall Street expected. That stock is Spotify. Let's take a look at the chart as Malcolm tells us why he sold it. >> Go on. >> Yeah, well, the short of it is this was a much grossier company back in 2023 when I first bought it. And for the last year or so, I've been holding off and impressed by the fact that even though they've increased prices a couple times over that period, subscriber growth, paid subscriber growth, has still been going up, which is a good sign. It shows that they actually do have pricing power. But then when I start to hear a company talk about its operating expenses going up, not only for marketing to acquire its next new customer, which is kind of a concern, they're also talking about operating expenses going up because AI slop on the platform has gotten so out of control. So, they talk about how much time and how many tools they've had to create in order to manage that AI slop getting onto the platform, and I think it only gets worse from here because as more attacks against people's critical infrastructure and everything else are being created by AI tools, we talk about the cybersecurity names and the impact of all that. Also, in the creative space like Spotify plays, that's also a problem for these guys and guys, and it's increasing day by day. And so, as the opex goes up, I think that that tends to be one big problem that they have a hard time getting away from. >> I I think here's the problem. It ran up extremely nicely in 2024. It became a tariff darling early 2025 with some with some good earnings and forecasts. And it's just really kind of giving that up. It's settling back in to where it finished >> Can we see that move, guys, please? Couple couple years, three years, please? Go ahead. I'm sorry. >> Yeah, that if you see where it was in '24, it just just went higher. It was a darling during the tariffs. We bought it during the tariffs, and that was sort of our our our play that was not connected to everything else. That along with Netflix. And it that that that's just coming out of it here. A lot of it's settling >> on this stock is unbelievable. Like this was 800, then down to 400. It's It's unbelievable how uh the the violence with which people change their minds positive and negative on this stock. >> it in the 140s because of the freak out over the Joe Rogan experience and all of that. And I was like, I'm willing to take a bet that people aren't going to cut the cord on Spotify just cuz they don't like one creator. And it has worked out well, but I think the challenge is that like looking at a company like this at 34 times forward earnings, when you could own something like a Netflix that's trading below the market at this point, and they kind of operate in the same space, it's a tough sell at this point. >> All right. Joby, let's take a look at that one. Stock was up last we saw after they beat expectations. It still is. Up 6 and 1/2% did get reiterated neutral today at Canaccord. And that's following that earnings report that I mentioned. What's your take here? >> So, I own a I own a position in Joby. It is my only EVTOL play at this point. I was in Archer as well. I got out of Archer, consolidated into Joby. I think this will be the first one to truly commercialize EVTOLs, and they are way ahead of the field in a lot of ways. One of which is last year they acquired Blade, which are the helicopter flights from the west and east side of Manhattan. A lot of people going to airports or or going to the Hamptons or whatever the case may be. Um that acquisition brought in 120 million plus annual revenue. And revenue becomes really important when you're funding massive capex to launch this fleet of next gen. And that's where they're at now. So, they partnered with Toyota. Toyota's got a joint venture with them in an equity stake. And basically, I think by the end of this year, you'll be seeing the taxi service get off the ground in in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Ultimately, that'll come here. I witnessed personally the flight from JFK to to the west side of Manhattan. It was majestic, if I don't mind saying so myself. And look, I don't I don't think that this is the type of company you should invest in if you need earnings and dividends cuz you ain't going to see either one of those for a very long time. >> Mhm. >> But as a as a spec, this is one of my favorite plays. >> Let's run through a couple real quick. So, Shake Shack, let's see what follow through there is from yesterday's news, if any. It's >> Not much, judge. >> Given given about 5% back on news that Jeff Smith's Starboard had taken a position there, called the stock too cheap. Today, it goes to 90 from 80. The target does that at Mizuho. For those who didn't have a chance to hear you yesterday, just give me real quick on that cuz I want to I want to do Uber, too. >> They had a good earnings report. I I think the stock was already rallying, and then the news of the activist got people excited because the truth is, it's a three two or three billion dollar market cap where it's been trading. It's way too small of a company relative to the size of its global brand. It should be much bigger. They need to get better operating the business. The good news is, the the turnarounds that Starboard has done elsewhere in the sector are very instructive to look at and say, "Hey, what if that happens here?" So, I think that's why stock had a nice rally. >> Okay. Uber to 91 bucks at Wedbush today. That's after earnings. Not perfect, they say, but not thesis-changing, either. Is that Is that how you would read it, or what's your own take here? >> I thought it was an incredible earnings report, and I said the day before the report, "Don't worry about it because nobody cares. The stock is down six out of the last seven quarters after reporting. Doesn't matter if they beat, if they miss, if they guide up, if they guide down. Nobody believes that um the strategy that Dara is pursuing on AVs is going to be competitive with Waymo and uh and Cybercab. I do, but I am obviously in the minority and that's why the stock trades I think now at 15 times forward earnings. Um so if anybody believed that they would be able to put together this coalition of third-party AV companies that would flood the platform with available rides and they would win, the stock would be a hundred and twenty dollars a share. And maybe that belief comes someday, but right now I'm on an island of one. Um the weather is fine as you can see by my tan, but like I'm very lonely. >> You're on an island of many right now as a matter of fact. >> are the analysts are raising targets, but investors aren't buying the stock. >> Oh, I see what you did there, judge. >> They're going to need the equivalent of a FIFA World Cup every quarter in the meantime until robo-taxi takes hold. >> what I think. Here's what I think. Here's what I think could go right. The one thing that could go It won't have anything to do with an earnings report. Um they're launching with Nvidia. >> Mhm. >> Nvidia's got Wave. That's going to be their entry into the space. They have another 10 OEMs like car manufacturers that are rolling cars right off the assembly line that are AV ready, okay? So they've got big companies that have a lot invested in being players in the game. The next thing is financing. Some big private equity, private credit players that recognize, "Hey, this is a business. Let's buy a fleet of AVs. We'll put them on the Uber app, and the average AV on the app right now is 15 or 20 rides a day. That's a business. Um we take out the most expensive part, the human uh driver who's sitting in the front seat who has a take rate of 20, 30%. We rip him out of the seat and we got a real business here. When those things start to become real and not just things that are talked about in the conference call, this stock could re-rate overnight. I just can't tell you when that is. >> You can sit with your Uber and I'll sit with my SpaceX. >> All right. >> Fair enough. >> All right, Frank coming. All right, Josh is best stocks in the market. Uh we have a trade update first. Uh and foremost we'll do Block first. What what do you got? >> All right, so we had a lot of fun. You weren't here Dom Chu was on the desk, but we were talking about how utterly >> More fun than when I was here? >> So much fun, but not as fun as when you're here. >> Thanks. >> Um >> Sorry, Dom. >> Yeah, stepdad's not as cool as you. >> [laughter] >> We talked about the utter untrustworthiness of Jack Dorsey uh kind of joking around, but um anyway, we talked about this name at 76 it ran up to 86. Now it's pulling back here after reporting what I thought was a pretty good earnings uh quarter. There were some questions in here about some of the expenses. Remember, this is the company that reduced headcount by like 40% or something. Um and for some reason their expenses are rising. So this is what I mean by nobody really trusts Jack Dorsey for long. So what I would tell you here is we said 81 was the breakout that happened. The stock broke away. Um now it's retesting that level. I would be very careful remaining long this trade. I want to see how it goes out today possibly into tomorrow, but a a close to end the week below 80, I would be just taking this one off the table. I wanted to close the loop with people because not every time we talk about a best stock is it a buy. But today we're going to talk about something entirely different, Visa. Um Visa is one of the greatest growth stocks of all time. This stock is up 3,250% since its IPO. That is a 33x return. You can count the number of stocks that have done that over this period of time uh on one or two hands. This is basically one of the best businesses in the world. The consumer trust them, the merchant trust them, and they are finding new ways to win regardless of what happens with the economy. The last reported quarter was outstanding. Revenue was up 11% year-over-year. Earnings also up 11%. You have a golden cross in the chart. If we had the 50 and 200-day moving average, you could see that. Basically, the stock made a high in May of 2025. Uh 375 is that level. It has not revisited since until now. I think we're going to make an assault on that old resistance level, and when it gets through, there really are no natural sellers here. The path to 400 is is clear and wide open. If we think travel holds up as a as a consumer theme this year, uh Visa plays heavily there. If we think the global economy holds up, which so far is the case. If we think uh employment trends will hold up, there's no reason why this stock shouldn't have a stellar back half of the year on that technical breakout. So, I wanted to bring it to you and show it to you now. It has been on the best stocks list for a little bit, um and I think that'll continue. >> Malcolm whipped out the Visa to buy that beautiful suit. He owns the stock, too. >> Sure did. >> Why do we always talk about Apple's massive install base, but we never talk about the largest payment processor in the world? >> Love that. Love that. MasterCard. MasterCard, too. Um both of these stocks are great. Visa looks better. >> billion transactions a year, I think they process globally. We never really talk about the fact that Visa's literally in everybody's pocket the same way the iPhone is. >> Is that sort of the the over arching thesis as to why you own the name? >> Yes, and the fact that I don't think it's easily disruptable by AI or anything else, right? They own the third largest number of patents on blockchain technologies behind Bank of America and I think MasterCard. And so, they're not going to get counted out of the game one way or another. They'll continue to be sitting right between every single swipe transaction that happens forever and ever and ever. And so, I just think it's one that you continue to own forever in your portfolio rather than trading in and out of it like Josh and I were lamenting doing uh in our younger, less smart years. >> yeah. >> tie, too, right? >> We're going to embarrass him a little bit. >> No, that doesn't embarrass me. He's not here to talk about it. That doesn't embarrass me. >> I look I look at this kid and I just see millions of dollars. >> I appreciate you saying that. 100%. >> Oliver Ren >> All right, welcome back. So, Berkshire reports on Saturday. Uh, that's going to be closely watched as it always is for obvious reasons. You want to get the first crack at this, Josh? Then Bill, we'll hear from him, too. You guys both on it? >> Yeah. Um, the stock is working this year. I think it's a combination of the stock portfolio. They have Apple, they have Coca-Cola, they have American Express. They have a lot of just happen to have a lot of the stocks that are working in this tape. Uh, but also the insurance piece. Insurance stocks, we've been highlighting them all year. Travelers, Chubb, Allstate, uh, Met. One after another, all of those charts look great. So, this doesn't look like it's out of place. I do love the way they report. No conference call. Drop the news on a Saturday when everyone else is busy. Um, I'm glad that they're continuing that tradition. I'll be paying attention to what they have to say, and we'll talk about it next week. >> Alphabet, too. Remember, right? We We got that recently from uh from Mr. Buffett himself. >> That's right. >> So, uh, we'll watch all of that. What's What's your take here? >> I mean, the insurance business, I mean, that's been a huge huge compounder. It's up 5% year to date, but it's actually making new highs right now year to date. We've been leaning into it on on weakness, and I like this uh from a defensive compounder standpoint. I I think there's a some upside here, for sure. >> Dare I say the stock got a reboot on the Google news? >> Yeah, absolutely. >> Alphabet news. >> Yeah, you know, we we looked at it as as >> I think so. I think so. >> I mean, if you look at the chart, it would suggest that. >> That's when we bought more. And I I talked about it on the show. It was It was right right after that news. We looked at it as redefining the um you know, what what their goal is and what and what their what their site sought out to be doing. But then Buffett was turned out to be the one that was behind it. >> By the way, the railroad's on fire. You got a lot of industrial demand in the current economy, and they also own one of the largest collections of utility assets in America. So, it's almost like everywhere you look, Berkshire is making money. >> Defensive compounder. >> I don't even know that they can spell AI. Doesn't matter. Like, they're in all the right places in the stocks for that. >> they can now. >> It's AI, but I'm just saying like this is you don't have to invest directly into AI to have benefited from AI, and here is one more example. Company that's got a lot of businesses that are doing really well based on the build-out. >> Now, they have six growth drivers that are just kind of blowing it out of the water. They reported yesterday huge huge breakout in that name. You probably buy it a little bit lower. Malcolm. >> So, AI improved those profit margins even more. >> Okay. Uh T O S T must be J O S H. >> Yeah, we're at a year-to-date high on on Toast, and I really like how it's setting up. >> I'll see you on the bell. Thanks, everybody. >> Guys, thanks so much. Welcome to Closing Bell. >> [music] >> I'm Scott Wapner live from Post 9 right here at the New York Stock Exchange. This make-or-break hour begins with the call of the bulls who say stocks are going much higher from here, and we've got one of them on our program today. Fundstrat's [music] Tom Lee, he'll be here with us in just a moment. And he's far from the only one who thinks 8,000 is the next stop in this rally. So, we'll discuss that and more coming up. Let's show you the scorecard here with 60 to go in regulation. [music] We have been red for most of the day. Some weakness in tech led by a few semi and software names today. We'll have reports on that in just a [music] bit. SpaceX is higher today after its lockup expirations begin just following [music] earnings. We're following that, of course, as well. More on that soon. Banks, they're a little weaker today after their recent [music] run. So, we're keeping our eyes on the broader market as well. Goldman's down about 2%. It does take us to our talk of the tape, the future of this rally, whether all of those bulls are too exuberant right now. Let's welcome in our panel. CNBC contributor Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Solace's Dan Greenhouse. We're all here at Post 9, as you can clearly see. Tom, it's good to have you. I'll start with you first. You say we could go 7,900 to 8,000 this month alone. So, this momentum's going to continue. >> Yeah, I think the the deleveraging that happened a couple of weeks ago put a lot of cash on the sidelines, got sentiment quite bearish, and then on top of people getting very skeptical of the Fed got markets to de-risk. And now, I think as earnings have been good, and I think there's a rethink of how inflation might be cooler than expected, and of course AI is still strong, there's going to be a chase. I think that chase takes us towards 7,900-8,000. >> Most people who are putting out bullish notes cite both of the facts that that you did. This major deleveraging process, which which was a reset for the market. There was no real fundamental change in in anything. It was just there was some froth that needed to be worked out. There was some leverage that got a little bit too high, and all of that needed to be worked out. And then the backbone of the whole thing, the earnings. John Waldron of Goldman was talking about that just yesterday morning. >> Yeah, that's exactly right. I mean, earnings this quarter is coming in more than $15 ahead of what people expected at the start of the quarter, but what's really more impressive is 2027 earnings are up now $8. So, we're probably close to 410 for 2027 earnings. And we're only 3 weeks into earning season. I I actually think it might settle out closer to 425 by the time earning season's over. >> Does that sound reasonable to you? And it's not just Tom, obviously. It's you know, I've been hearing more 8,000 calls sort of, you know, day by day with Ed Yardeni saying his 8250 could be conservative for the very reason that Tom just suggested. Earnings are just really good. >> Yeah, I mean, and as we're seeing on the screen, the S&P's already at 7,700, so 8,000 uh no disrespect, I mean, it's not a huge lift to uh percentage-wise. >> the implication though is like that that's just the next stop in this train. >> Yeah, mean, cuz cuz the thing with the earnings is even if you X out technology and you subtract say 10 percentage points off the gross number, earnings are still good. And when you listen to as as many of us do, any number of companies in any number of industries, >> They almost all of them. >> Yeah, the AI story is going well if from Eaton and 3M and those adjacent companies. Uh you look at the charts of the KRE, the BKX, the financials are at highs, the KIE, the insurance companies are at highs. Uh the commentary across the board from the card companies who I mentioned in every quarter about consumer spending just fine. So, you have all the investment themes going on, AI, power generation, etc. etc. The consumer is doing fine. Jobless claims 2 weeks in a row sub 200. For for viewers out there who are not aware, under 200,000 in jobless claims didn't happen one time from 2000 through through basically through COVID. These are exceedingly incredible numbers. And so, just when you take a step back from one being bullish or bearish, the backdrop is positive. Now, the valuation argument is something we can have. You look at SanDisk and some of the moves in those names, obviously South Korea. But but the fundamental backdrop is still very positive. >> those sure there there are always going to be idiosyncratic valuation issues within any bull market. But one of the overwhelming, I think, characteristics of this particular bull market is the ability of this stock market to correct itself, to rid itself of excesses that feel uncomfortable at the time, but don't upend the story. We witnessed that a week or so ago. We had the largest crash in momentum than we probably and the fastest one than we probably have ever had. And then if you pile on top of that a blow up in a in a hedge fund that's heavily levered to the AI trade, and yet the market was up three or four days uh consecutively following that, and we find ourselves, you know, closing at record highs, you know, today obviously notwithstanding. >> Yeah, there's a market structure conversation to have in here about the the the way the market acts and performs these days, but I think your point is exactly right. I would have been and was one of those people who would have told you 6 months, a year ago, whatever, well, if the Mag 7 or Sandisk and AMD dropped 20, 30, 40%, the broader market's going to be down at least 5 to 7% if not 10 to 15%, and that didn't happen. The rest of the market, for lack of better word, picked up the slack. I find that in in advance of it shocking, in retrospect very thankful, because you have the market at a high, four sectors are outperforming, a fifth is basically in line, half the index is doing better than the index. You can't really do too much better than that. It's pretty good. >> Some are wondering whether people are too giddy. I mean, the the nuance in your bullishness, it has been and it remains to be that you still think we're going to have a sizable correction in the market before we have a pickup. I was going to ask you before I read the notes that you gave our producers whether you thought that already happened. Yeah, and in fact, you don't think it happened already. >> No, I don't. I think we've had a rolling bear market in a lot of groups, Mag 7 and crit software, crypto, and now the AI stocks. But we haven't had a broad de-risking. I think that is later this year, and it it probably is around this inflation derangement syndrome that is the market is very concerned about, you know, whether the Fed should be hiking in September. I think there's a real battle until September. Um but our take, of course, is that inflation's much weaker. I I think that there won't be a hike in September. >> Well, I mean, if the market comes around to that view, then why why would you have a 10% pullback? You think the market's just going to get so crazy with itself that it's going to convince itself that there's a hike coming in in September? Even, by the way, amid reports from in some publications that Chair Wars is is ready to do that if he has to, if inflation remains hot into that meeting. >> Yeah, I think there's I think it's still a hotly debated because there are economists who want the Fed to hike just to reestablish credibility with financial markets. We know the media and investors are impatient with inflation cuz it's at 2.6, they want it down to two. But at the end of the day, if underlying inflation is much weaker, which is our our take, then I think it's a mistake for the Fed to hike. But this is not a consensus view. I think it's still a battle around. >> How about that nuance of of of Tom's outlook? The fact that, you know, you everything's great. You pointed out so many of the reasons why so many are now bullish. But this is lurking and it's going to be, you know, Jackson Hole later this month, then this Fed meeting in September, which is going to be one of the real wild cards in this whole story. >> So, with respect to the worst statement about, well, if inflation keeps going up, then I'm going to That's the most banal uh down-the-middle statement a Fed chair can make. If inflation is exceedingly high relative to our target, then we're going to have to hike rates. So, so I'm fine with that statement. Uh generally speaking, I'm with Tom. I don't think inflation is quite as bad as the headline number suggests for a whole number of reasons that we're not going to get into now. Uh I disagree that that they shouldn't I think that the 50/50 is right. We have a jobs report, we have some inflation readings, and that those reports are going to carry even more significance than normal in terms of what the Fed >> What are you saying? 50/50 that they'll hike? >> Yeah, I think the market is priced about 50/50. I think it should be 50/50. I think it's I could make the case that they should. I could should make the case that they can't. >> in mind that the September meeting, it won't be 50/50. It's either It's a It's binary. So, that's why it's a battleground September meeting. In the sense that if they don't hike, then the market might even fight that and and trigger volatility. >> I I will tell you, I mean, I I I I would push back on that. I guess in the sense that it could still be 50/50 because for the first time in a long time we're not going to get the hand-holding from the Fed that so many have become used to, which is why no matter what happened in the prior meeting, it could be deemed a surprise relative to what the market was already, you know, had convinced itself was even possible. So, things are a little bit different as that goes. >> I think it sort of ties into our view that the market's still in a process of testing the new Fed, Kevin Warsh, because he is trying to rethink com- communications, forward guidance, and even what inflation is. >> the 30-year's sticking at 521, 520? There it is, 521 today. >> Yeah, because it it may be reflecting on the uncertainty that is created by lack of forward guidance and lack of Fed comms. Or it could be the idea that we are it's inflationary. We actually don't really know what's being priced into the market. >> can pi- if I can pivot off that for a second on the credibility conversation, there's a number of I I disagree that the Fed is the losing credibility. I I I don't buy that argument. I'm not alone. I know Torsten Slok recently put out something along those lines. Robin Brooks, formerly of Goldman Sachs, on Twitter made a similar argument. We're We're not alone. I I I There's a There's a transition going on here. It's sort of The analogy I've been using is akin to letting your your child cry it out when they're younger and have to go to sleep. The ch- The child is used to you coming in every day and and and pat- patting you on the head and putting you to bed. And now all of a sudden Daddy doesn't show up and and the baby's screaming. And to some degree the market is the screaming baby. I don't know that this is a totally correct, but we'll go with it. The market is the screaming baby right now figuring out what is the new normal in this era. And I think 50/50 in that type of environment where the Fed is not holding your hand, for better or worse, is the correct probabilistic outcome in front of a jobs report and a couple of inflation reports. >> point is the markets as to what what you guys were just alluding to as well, the market's not used to going into meetings 50/50. >> Sure. >> It It usually knows. >> it should probably get used to it. It should probably get used to it cuz according to the article today, it's here to stay. And again, that's his prerogative. We can debate whether that's the correct course or the incorrect course. Obviously, any number of people have come on air and argued that's the incorrect course. >> too. I mean, there's, you know, obviously, a huge debate about that, but the mechanisms of that are certainly different to what the markets are going to do sure between now and then is is going to be. The broadening story. If earnings are broadening so much, like Waldron was talking about yesterday morning, then theoretically the market should continue to broaden as well. >> Right? >> Correct. If you exclude the Second quarter earnings are up 50% year-over-year. Um excluding investment gains, it's still up 22%. That's That's a huge step up in organic growth for the S&P 500, which was running at 13% last year. And it is broad-based. Um and I think the good news is that some of these are being reported at a time when there were energy inflation pressures and tariff headwinds. So, I actually think the repeatability is is the good story because next year those anniversary. >> Last point. >> Four stocks, four sectors are up more than the index. A fifth is basically tied. Mid-caps at a high. Small caps at a high. The UK at a high. Germany and France at a high. Brazil and Mexico almost at highs. There's lots of evidence that this is not just some Fed and AI infused rally specifically in the United States. There's lots of things going well. And again, getting back to the original point to tie it up, every company and every industry is basically saying, "We're good good." >> All right. More conversations to come. We know that. Guys, thanks. Appreciate you being here, too. >> All right. So, let's take a look at this new list here. There's about 14 ticker symbols, stocks, and ETFs mixed in there. We'll also take a look at the indices right after that, including gold and silver. So, let's take a look at Amgen. We'll start off with that. And these are the first the top four are the ones that got that blue flag that I'm looking for. The weekly chart It very very bullish here for Amgen. In fact, this week it's uh certainly going to most likely close above this prior high, all right? Uh even though it's down 0.73%, I like Amgen. Here's the daily chart. So, price did gap up a little bit and then dropped. Um you know, this is a reversal type pattern. It's called a dark cloud cover. It's when price gaps up and then drops and closes within the candle. So, that I'll show you guys what that looks like here on the bearish double candle patterns. There it is, dark cloud cover. So, bullish candle followed by that bearish one that gaps up then closes within the body of that candle, the prior one. So, that's what we have. Technically speaking, it looks very bullish though. We still have a series of higher highs, higher lows, and everything looks quite bullish for Amgen. I just would be very careful about entering until I see a little bit more positivity tomorrow. I got to see that. Berkshire Hathaway. Now, this happens to be another stock that I'm that's in my portfolio. I did add this back on July 31st. It's been continuing to move up. Um I like this one, too. It's got the blue flag. Uh you can see that's what the daily chart looks like, and here's the weekly, all right? The weekly chart, we can see that trend line that was broken. And then in basically, yeah, it's looking quite bullish with the cloud that's starting to turn bullish. The directional movement index looks good. The directional movement index also gives us more information. That's what we're looking for here is the positive DI9, which is the green line, to be above the negative DI9. Okay, we want that to be moving up. We want the red line to be moving down ideally. And this ADX9, which is also superimposed on top, represents momentum. When the white line is moving up and the green line is above the red line, that's very bullish. When the red line is above the green line and the ADX is moving up, like it is right here, that's actually quite bearish cuz the momentum is increasing the downside. If I go straight up, you can see how that led to a decline here in Berkshire back you know, around this timeframe. So, right now things are looking good. I like Berkshire. I like I kind of like GRNQ at this point. It's still stuck under this 28 uh 02 level. Here it is in the weekly chart. It needs to break through that level. It's really been consolidating for multiple weeks now and months actually now. It's been months that we've been stuck in this consolidation zone. So, there's no clear uh breakout yet, okay? Don't get too excited. The market has not taken off yet. We saw how the market performed today. Let's look at the daily chart on for GRNQ. You can see it pulling back a little bit. So, it gapped up above that level today. I'm sorry, yesterday on Thursday. Closed under it and then we continued to drop today. So, it's pulling back. It's rejecting that uh resistance level and it's not breaking through it clearly. KIE, the insurance ETF is another one that I kind of like. Uh this is the Spider S&P insurance ETF. Here's the daily chart. It's sitting right on that Tenkan-sen. It's above it barely. So, the the closing price was 65.15. And if I click here, the conversion was 65.13. That's the green line. All right, conversion Tenkan-sen. Uh the red line is also called the baseline. So, anyway, I like I like KIE. Let's take a look. And did I show you the weekly? Here's the weekly chart. Okay, holding up above this prior level. In fact, that's a weekly level. Let me go ahead and change the color so we have the correct color there, blue. Light blue for weekly. Light red for daily, okay? So, I like it. What about the rest of these? Well, BMMR, Bitmain Immersion, that's Tom Lee's um you know, he's appointed chairman of Bitmain Immersion back in 2025, June 30th. This hasn't been really doing that well. Uh recently there's been a little bit of an uptick in BMNR. If I remove the lines here, you can see for the last, I don't know, 6 weeks now, it's it has been moving up. It's moved up 39.85%. But it's coming right to a resistance level, the 200 days right there. So is the red line, the 26 period. And it's still under this very bearish cloud. So it it needs to prove itself and it hasn't yet. CB is Chubb Corporation. Here it is in the weekly, looks good on the weekly, but on the daily chart it closed under the Tenkan Sen, just by a by a few pennies. Overall, I like it. Overall, I like CB. I think it's got potential. Just, you know, I would wait for a little bit more confirmation on that one. ETH is the Ethereum ETF and you can see that it's been stagnant here, just moving sideways inside the cloud. Basically developing a little box. I would hold off on that one, too. Bitcoin doing the same thing. Okay. So, IBIT is the ETF here. We can see that it's actually still under the cloud on the daily chart. Joby aviation. Although we have seen a little bit of a move up here and in fact from the lows it has moved up about um 22.7%. This can be a very short-lived move. This could be a bear flag pattern, folks. Let me show you what that looks like. So, it's when you see a big decline and then you start seeing a a little bit of a move up. A very tight move up. Now, that's called a bear flag, okay? Let me show you what that looks like in this other cheat sheet that I like to use. Right below this one, you'll find this stock patterns cheat sheet. I suggest you download these and memorize these these these patterns because they're basically they repeat over and over and over again multiple times. So, um what we're looking at is this right here, the bear flag, right? Bearish variant. It's when we've been declining. We We see a little bit of a move up, a very tight consolidation to the move move up like like you see right there, but then price breaks under the trend line and drops. So, that's I think what we're seeing here with Joby, essentially. I see we're We've got a bear flag pattern. We've got a a reversal type candle, a spinning top here. Um so, I'd be very cautious with it. And here's the weekly chart. All right. Still under the cloud, under the moving averages. What about Shake Shack? That too doesn't look particularly bullish yet. Uh we're still under the cloud, under the 200. It's been moving up since the 5160 level. It has moved up quite a bit. It's moved up about 35.9%. But it's in a series of lower highs, lower lows in the weekly. You switch it to a daily chart, you could see that the change here, double bottom. It's been moving We got higher highs and higher lows. So, we don't have confirmation on both time frames. If you choose to trade this, okay, my suggestion would be to switch it to a shorter time frame, maybe a 4-hour, and then work that. If you really want to own this stock, and then just trade the 4-hour or the 2-hour, okay, or the 30-minute chart. Spotify. Let's look at this one on the weekly chart. It's under the cloud still. All right. So, no one Spotify. Here is the daily chart as well. Not looking good. It's under the 200. Stay out of that one. Uh Toast, T O S T is the ticker symbol. That's been doing okay here in the daily chart. We've got a series of higher highs, higher lows, but on the weekly chart, we're still inside the cloud. Uber is still in a downward channel. I'd stay out of Uber for now on the weekly chart. XYZ has broken above the cloud on the weekly, but on the daily chart, it's breaking down today, down 6.09%. That's Block Inc. And it's in the sub-software infrastructure technology sector, which hasn't really been proving itself uh recently. So, >> [cough and clears throat] >> let's go ahead and uh finish off here by telling you a little bit about my channel. Actually, oh, I forgot, folks. Geez, can't believe I forgot this. I didn't cover the spy. Let's take a look at the S&P 500 on the spy ETF, which recently broke above this consolidation box. And that's a bullish sign. It happened here this week on Tuesday. This was Wednesday. bearish pattern right there. Pulled back a little bit more, 0.16. Here's what I'm thinking might potentially occur here. We might see a pullback further, right to the top of the box, and then we might see a bounce if it's meant for the spy to continue its um move to the upside. If we break back into the box, there's a higher likelihood that we may stay in that for a more extended period of time or even break below it. And so, right now though, things are still looking bullish overall. If you look at this on the daily and on the weekly chart, see that consolidation that was broken this week. One more day before you know, tomorrow's Friday, so we'll see what where this candle stands um the weekly one for spy. Here's the Dow, also looking pretty bullish on the weekly chart. I like it. Same thing with the daily chart. Actually, I think that back to the daily chart, well, it does look bullish in that it's above the cloud, it's above the moving averages. But, yesterday we had what's called a gravestone doji. That that's a reversal candle. Okay? It's like indicative basically the way that you identify it is a flat bottom. And the the wick at the top, it kind of looks like a gravestone. And so, it did lead to a drop, 0.85%. And like again, we might see a pullback slightly, maybe retest this nine period, and then bounce from there. Maybe drop another 1.2% or so. Russell 2000 was unsuccessful in breaking through this 30272 level. So, it's been pulling back. So, that's interesting, right? Where the spy and the Dow actually broke above those resistance levels, the Russell 2000 did not. It was unsuccessful. All right. It is still technically Well, I take that back. Look at the cheeky span here. I just caught that, folks. The white line it closed under the candle. Okay? So, Russell 2000 is going to I'm going to remove that blue flag because it no longer applies here uh for the Russell. Let's get rid of it. So, I'd hold off on that one, obviously. And what about FEZ, the Euro Stoxx 50? That looks pretty bullish still overall on the daily chart. Held It's been above the 7052 level now for 3 days. Um didn't really move much today, down 0.01. Here's the weekly chart. So, again, this candle is very important. Tomorrow we'll know what that looks like, Friday afternoon. Unless we have a really bearish day tomorrow where it brings it right back under. I think there's a higher likelihood to the upside next week as long as we can remain above 7052. Um here's the Qs. The QQQ ETF on the weekly chart broke above the nine period and the red line there. So, I like what I'm seeing here with the QQQ ETF on the weekly chart, but the daily chart is still inside the cloud. Uh on a positive note, on the daily chart, we broke this trend line. That happened on Wednesday. Now uh here we are on Thursday and this is Fri- I'm sorry. I I take that back, folks. This was Tuesday, Wednesday, and here we are on Thursday retesting that trend line. So, we might get a bounce tomorrow on the cues. Cross your fingers, right? Um we talked about Russell. The VIX is uh still declining. It's at a level of 15.15. That's a good sign. That's the volatility dropping in the markets. Gold is still uh above the box. We talked about this yesterday how on Thursday, I'm sorry, Wednesday, it broke above the cloud the box here. It is now still staying inside the cloud. Um that's a bullish sign. Whenever you break through some consolidation and above prior highs, it's actually quite a bullish sign. And you know what else I noticed here is we do have a higher low, right? Do you see these lows? They're higher than this low. So, that's very bullish actually. And we also took out this high. So, I think gold has some potential here. But um it's still inside the cloud. All right? So, just keep that in mind and um on the weekly chart, same thing. We're just kind of still looks, you know, we're reentering the cloud now. There's a good possibility after this falling wedge, which is also a bullish pattern, right? Um that we might see gold and possibly silver also start to to take to come up as well. Uh silver is still stuck inside the box on the weekly. And here's the daily chart. All right? It It's not out performing as well as gold. I mentioned that yesterday that I was more bullish on gold than I am on silver because it has not been able to break through this prior high. Now, uh couple things. If you guys like what you're seeing here today, you like this channel, support my channel, guys. Support it. How do you do it? Well, you can hit the subscribe button. That's free. Hit the notification bell so you get notifications whenever I post a new video. 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