This Stock Is in a League of Its Own. No Company Has Ever Done This

Hey everyone and welcome back to another video for today. In today's video, we have a lot to discuss. We have the moves in the market right now. We have some news with regards to Google Alphabet, Meta, Mercad, Libé, Axon, Uber, they all reported their quarterly figures. So, we're going to go over the reports as well. I did make a move already today. Shift 4 reported. Oscar reported as well. Didn't check Oscar just yet. I know the stock is down. They beat across the board. So that will be probably either for Friday or for Sunday's uh portfolio update. But shift 4 did report Q2 was a good quarter, but guidance again was a bit disappointing. And so right now I took my loss and I sold out of my shift 4 position. Why? Why take the loss even though it's a cheap stock to own? Even though valuation wise it is quite cheap. Well, the reason is quite simple. Right now I rather keep some cash because next week we do have Nebus, we have Core Weave, we still have DLO, we still have a Rocket Lab. All of these companies are of course in my portfolio. These companies are not struggling right now. All of these companies are growing with the Shift 4. I I'm I'm just going to say what many people think it is because the stock is underperforming. The business is also not outperforming. It's definitely underperforming the potential, but the stock itself will not be moving anytime soon in my opinion. And so I'm taking my loss and I'm going to park my cash somewhere else because yes, I could I could wait until the story becomes better and there is a turnaround. But yes, in this case there is an opportunity cost and I rather just increase my positions in other companies where the business is doing well where maybe they have already beat across the board where maybe guidance has been raised as well which probably will go to another meta soi maybe even Nebus or who knows if Rocket Lab goes even lower these might be the positions where I'll continue to add more and more. So I want to get that out of the way already right now. Now, as for the rest, if we go and have a look at the market right now, it's a very interesting situation. It's a bit all over the place. It's a bit all over the place. Microsoft still doing very, very well. Now, if we go and have a look at, for example, the semiconductor names, the semiconductor names, most of them right now are green, which is the exact opposite of what happened yesterday after hours when SanDisk reported and this morning as well. Even Micron is green. SanDisk was down, I believe, 10% or so pre-market. Now it's down a little bit less than that. If we look at SanDisk, which is this one right here, 3.7%. Now SanDisk, of course, is experiencing an insane amount of growth. But as we've discussed in the live stream yesterday, it's more about okay, do you think this growth and margins can be sustained for many many years to come? They said, look, we are seeing an insane amount of growth. They told market keeps increasing. So they believe they can continue to grow. Market just doesn't believe that as of right now. We could then continue to discuss the PE etc. But that's maybe a story for another day. We will talk about of course Google and Meta. I'll start off with Google because one it's a very big announcement. So they said here the next chapter of our AI momentum. They're talking here about Demi Sasabis Corey. I'm not going to mention his last name because I'm going to butcher that. And then Jeff Dean. Now, of course, they remind us here that there is insane amount of momentum with the business. The Gemini app has reached 950 million monthly users, etc., etc. But there are some changes. De Mr. Sabis is going to step down, not leave the company. He's going to become the chair of Google DeepMind and chief scientist of Alphabet while continue to lead Isomorphic Labs. Corey or Corey which is the chief technology officer of Google DeepMind and their chief AI architect will step up as SVP of Google DeepMind reporting directly to Sundar. He will oversee Gemini model development, Frontier AR research and the Gemini app and developer teams. The stock fell when this was announced. Also, there's this department right here from Jeff Dean. 27 years at the company, he's going to start his own thing. Funny thing here is that Google is an investor in his new venture and they're also going to use Google cloud. The thing here with this is again it's pure headlines. So AI researchers, AI scientists leaving Google and so it's bad for the company. Now I will say that yes when it comes to Gemini when you compare Gemini to claude or Chad GPT they have been behind from a product standpoint. I do hope that Gemini 4 will be a huge huge update. They've already said it during the earnings call that they know that they've been behind and they're working on catching up. And remember when it comes to models, models is not your moat. Remember when Google had Google Bart? Horrible, a disaster. But then Nano Banana came out, Gemini 3 came out and they were back on top. The competitive advantage is being vertically integrated. It is the AI infrastructure. It is the GPUs. it is the compute power, the TPUs, etc. That's the competitive advantage, not a couple of AI researchers here and there. The stock itself, in my opinion, it was a bit of an overreaction, but hey, may maybe it's an opportunity for those that wanted to add a little bit more. What's more important is, of course, the fact that uh Google Cloud continues to crush it, right? Google Cloud has been accelerating is now 81.8% 8% year-over-year growth at $24.7 billion in revenue and margins are expanding. That's that's the most important part here. Now, as for Meta, we did have some positive news come out with regards to Meta's own models. Muse Spark 1.1, actually 1.2 and Muse Code. Now, the stock is trying to go back at $600 per share. You know my thoughts on Meta. It's extremely undervalued. Now, they released a new model, Muse Code. It's in beta yesterday. It's a terminal coding agent that takes on complete and software engineering tasks across large repos, planning changes, writing code, validating the results powered by Muse Spark 1.2, a coding focused model update. Now, it is just a small update, but you can already see here the improvements. The big update will come when they will be releasing their watermelon model. Now, what's also interesting is if we look at Val AI index here, this is an LLM evaluation company. They say the following. Newspark 1.2 just cracked the top five on the Val index at just 69 cents per test. This is three times cheaper than Kim K3 and 10 times or more cheaper than Fable, Opus or 5.6 Soul, which is Chad GPT. If we look at artificial analysis benchmarks here, we can see the big jump from Musepark 1.1 high to Musepark 1.2 high. Again, they're getting closer and closer to those frontier models. Now, what's interesting here, what's important is that one, Meta has an insane amount of compute, and two, if they can make it cheaper, well, they've got a distribution. So, this is definitely or could definitely be a big winner. Now, there were some reports out from a former Nebus employee that talked about the fact that Meta does have up to 400,000 GPUs that they could sell for outside users. If that happens, again, the sentiment will change quite quickly. Now, moving on to the earnings news, we had Melly, Uber, and Axon. Now, all three actually reported quite a good quarter, but all three stocks went down. So, let's discuss that right now. If you enjoy this type of videos, hit all the buttons. We really appreciate that. If you want to support me even further, do check out the link down in the description and in the pin comment to the top 10 best stocks to buy now or go to full.com/couchinvestor. Thank you very much. I'll first start of course with Marcado Libre, which is a company that is in a league of its own. Yes, the stock is down 10% year to date. Yes, the forward PE is at 44.3 times, the trailing 48.3 times. But this is a company that is still expected to grow extremely quickly over the next coming years. Why is it in a league of its own? Well, it's very simple. If you look at the revenue growth over the past couple of years, we can actually pull this all the way back here. I believe March of 2019. They've been successfully growing for the past six years at a compound annual growth rate of 52%. 30 consecutive quarters of over 30% year-over-year revenue growth. There's no other company out there like this. And so, why is the stock down? Well, the stock is down for the usual stuff. It's not because revenue has increased almost 50% year-over-year and they're now generating $10 billion a quarter. It's not because uh GMV has increased by 43% year-over-year. It's also not because the total payment volume is up 56% year-over-year. It is again because of margins, right? You can clearly see beats across the board for the quarter across all segments. But gross margin here is down. It's down 470 basis points yearoveryear. Did miss analyst expectations as well. But every single quarter we are talking about this. every single quarter we're talking here about the fact that yes they are investing a lot in the business which is why we are seeing margins being suppressed at the moment. Now they did of course touch on the credit health their credit portfolio so that has increased by 75.2% year-over-year. Quarterly credit originations were at $2.1 billion and the credit card mix sits at 47% up from 43% a year ago. That's from the total portfolio. As for credit health, NPL performance here, 15 to 90day NPL improved to 7%. That's down 100 basis points quarter over quarter from 8% in Q1 and down from 8.2% in Q1 2025. As for credit cards, 15 to 90day NPLs that sit has historic lows at 4.6% confirming of course disciplined underwriting. Now the 90 plus day NPL did increase a little bit. It reached 18.7% versus 17.6% in Q1, but that's fully expected as older cohorts age out. And as for the net interest margin after losses that rebounded quarter over quarter to 20.7% from 17.8% in Q1, recovering as longer duration loans mature. Provisions for doubtful accounts doubled year-over-year due to rapid portfolio growth under accounting rules requiring front-loaded loss reserves. Management also confirmed zero credit deterioration in Brazil or Argentina. For a company that is growing this quickly, what we're seeing here with regards to their credit health, it is not bad at all. As for the rest, Marcado ads up 62% year-over-year. that surpassed 10% market share in LATAM digital advertising budget orchestrator usage expanded 63% quarter over quarter while HBO Max partnership increased video ad impressions by 50% cross border trade GMV grew over 100% year-over-year in Brazil and Argentina powered by a 170% quarterover surge in usage at the China fulfillment hub bolstering logistics mode and so again this is a story of are you a long-term shareholder or an investor or are you a short-term one? Because management they first of all they have an incredible track record. Second of all, management has made it quite clear that they are in an investment cycle. They're doing this to make sure that the company becomes even stronger in the future. They're not optimizing the company for short-term Wall Street expectations. They're doing all of this to make sure that the long-term success of this company is going to be guaranteed. There is a reason why this is one of the biggest holdings I have, if not the biggest holdings today in my retirement portfolio. This is a company in a league of its own. Moving on to Uber. Uber stock has been an underperformer, but Uber the business has been performing very well. Gross bookings is up 22% yearover-year is and that's the fourth consecutive quarter of above 20% growth. Trading 12 months, free cash flow is now above $10 billion. non-GAAP operating income sits at 40% and so here across the board this has been a very good quarter. Now you might say here 12% growth year-over-year for revenue that's not good. Well they did get impacted by 8% by UK model shift. So without that they would be up 20% which again very very good. Mobility segment up 20% year-over-year revenue for gross bookings that is revenue of course did not increase much but that's also due to a 400 basis point shift from UK business model changes as for the operating income for that segment that's up 28% year-over-year to $2.22 billion delivery and freight delivery bookings up 25% year-over-year delivery operating income up 38% year-over-year at a 3.8% 8% margin. Freight revenue was actually up 25% year-over-year, surprisingly enough, to 1.58 uh billion dollars, and the losses there have improved. Looking at guidance for Q3, they're expecting gross bookings to grow between 18 to 22% year-over-year, and that assumes a 1 percentage points currency headwind. Non-GAAP EPS represents between 28 to 35% year-over-year growth and adjusted EIDA between 2.86 86 to $2.96 billion. As for the autonomous vehicle topic in Q2, they are alive in seven active cities. By the end of the year, they expect to be live in 15 cities with various partnerships. In 2027, Nvidia Alpha Mayo model integration is going to launch in LA, San Francisco, scaling to 28 cities globally by 2028. And then by 2028, they expect to have a full stack hardware and software launch in San Francisco and Miami with highly affordable bill of materials in partnership with Rivian. They of course did talk about the Whimo partnership. They're quite happy with that as well, but again, their AV strategy does not rely on just one specific partner. Of course, me personally, I would love it if they continue the partnership with Whimo long after the 2028 uh deadline. As for the commercialization engine, Uber's built-in demand engine drives mid to high 20s to low30s trips per vehicle daily. Essential for AV unit economics. They're deploying test fleets with robot taxi grade sensors to gather highfidelity right shared tail data for partner endtoend AI training. They're deploying around $10 billion in ecosystem commitments. Uber's anchor rule has catalyzed $2.5 in external capital per $1 invested which goes back to what I said at the start well not this video but at the start of my long-term thesis is one everybody's going to have robo taxis full self driving will become a commodity and platform with insane distribution is going to be the winner but of course right now here as well we have a sentiment problem it's not that this company doesn't grow fast it's not that this company isn't very profitable. It's not that this company is not buying back shares. No, it's doing all of these things. But the market again, sentiment wise, they maybe want to see more cities with autonomous vehicles. Maybe they want to see a positive impact of autonomous vehicles for Uber. I don't think we're going to see it this year, but 2027, I do believe that's going to be the year where you are actually going to see autonomous vehicle business impact a business like Uber in a positive way. For now, I'm, as I said before, this is a position that I have and I'm happy with my allocation. Last but not least, one of my newest positions, but one that I did want to own for a long, long time. It's also an expensive name, and that's Axon. I got it at a less expensive price, but it's still an expensive name. Revenue up 35.3% year-over-year. Cloud ARR up 38%, 38.5 actually. All beat estimates by the way. Net retention rate 126% contracted bookings sits at $15.1 billion that's up 41.1% year-over-year and so here as well you can see good growth year-over-year across the board solid beats only one miss which was a free cash flow here missed by around $100 million I do believe that's because of inventory ramp up again with Axon this is a business that is just executing flawlessly growth across the board done which is their counter drone home business revenue there is up 123% year-over-year to $150 million and they're now over $400 million in annual run rate. This is a business that they acquired for around $500 million in 2024. So again flawless execution here by this uh company with regards to free cash flow like I said the mish there is purely due to aggressively multi-year hardware inventory build ahead of multi-year demand. The normalization will happen so inventory accumulation completes by end of 2026 setting up strong free cash flow conversion towards fullear $450 million target. They did also raise the fiscal year 2026 revenue guide annual growth target raised to 33% year-over-year up from 31% also beating consensus numbers. Ebida margin guidance was reaffirmed at 25.5%. free cash flow guidance as we just said $450 million. Now, like I said, this is not a cheap name. We are down 10% which makes sense because I said it a couple of days ago. I rather go into the earnings report where we're not at 600 or more because again this is a name that is trading currently. Analyst will probably revise their own estimates 60 times forward earnings. But then again, it is a company that's expected to grow extremely quickly over the upcoming years. Axon, it's a small position for me right now. If we do drop again much much lower towards maybe $500 per share or lower, I will continue to accumulate more and more. If not, then I have to be happy with what I own right now. But all in all, Uber reported good numbers. Nothing to change from my position. Axon, excellent quarter as well. Nothing to change from my position. Marcado Libre already a huge position in my retirement portfolio. Incredible quarter in my opinion. Everything's right on track. So yeah, solid week earnings-wise. Next week we do have Core Reef, we do have Nebus, we still have Rocket Lab, Dlo, all of these companies. Then Micron probably a month from now. So still a lot of action left, but so far earning season has been quite good for me all in all. What about you? Let me know down in the comment section below. I will probably talk more about Oscar in Sunday's video. That's about it for me in today's video. See you all in the next one. Bye-bye.