The Big 3: SPCX, CRWV, CRCL

get your podcasts. Welcome back to trading 360. I'm Marley Kayden. It's time for the big three. We've got three stocks three charts and three trades for you. Rick Duquette taking us through the charts as always here to take us through the technicals. Charles Moon stock strategist over at Prosper Trading Academy. Charles great to have you on the show. I hope Rally Dog is being good today and can maybe help out with some of the random looking at on the big board, but how are you looking at the markets this morning? Well, you know, it didn't take much to bring us down, right? A little turmoil in the Middle East. And all of a sudden people get really nervous that things are going to ramp up. And, you know, unfortunately with us, you know, trading at and at or near all time highs, the market is still very hyper sensitive and very concerned. So things remain in a very, very short term and limited fashion. I do believe that we're still in an overall bullish environment. We have fairly absorbed the news over the last two weeks. You know we see the bond market. The yields continue to rise. But the market hasn't you know at least at this point, you know, strongly reacted to the downside. You know, today is probably some of the more weaker that we have seen in the AI plays, in the tech plays. So it's just a hypersensitive market still. It's still a news driven market. And it's kind of a wait and see. The buyers are fairly passive today. More risk off than risk on that's, you know, not too surprising. Yeah. Sam referred to it as an air pocket earlier that it feels like we're in an air pocket just waiting for things to happen. But one thing that has had some movement is your first pick here. We're talking about space today, and I'm excited about this one because we don't have a lot of data to go off of, but we do have some. The lockup expiry is over. Now. We've got all those shares now in the open market, and we are still hovering above the IPO price right now. So how are you looking at space here and how you would play space X? Charles. Yeah. You know they've they've had two different instances where they've defended their lows. And certainly the last time was the day just prior to the lockup expiry. The day came and space ended up up that day. That really told me that the concerns which was shares flooding the market was really overblown. And since then, not only have they held up well, but they have certainly started working higher. So again, looking at things more short term, everything is very risky. But I like the 828 expiration, 145 strikes. I'd like to get them at five and a half or lower. I don't think risk has to be too wide here. I think 35% is good. I think the upside is at around 80%. I do believe that the 135 price is very critical for this stock. But if it holds, there's certainly an opportunity for this stock to break through 150 and really start pushing somewhere in the range of 165, 170 in the near term. So if we, you know, if we get into a very bullish environment, space could be one of those names that really stands out a little bit more than, you know, some of the other plays that we have seen, especially related to AI. All right. We've got some important IPO levels you just pointed out there. 135 the IPO price. 150 is where it opened. Are those levels that stand out to you as well in the chart? Rick. Well, I have 136 and 150 highlighted specifically here. So. 136 the reason why is simply just it was a recent relative low here. So even though it is coincidentally around that same level, I was just looking at a much more granular level at our short term price activity. This is an hourly chart, by the way. Typically we look at daily charts, but given the short duration of time that this stock has been trading, I took a closer look here. Recent highs come in near 150 as well. So we have this double top ceiling in the shorter term after earnings. So if we were to back up a little bit here another double top near 136. That was around where we had our high after earnings. And that's around where we had our subsequent lows. So you can see that oftentimes old support can become new resistance. Or in this case old resistance can become new support. So this is a common thing that happens in trading. Certainly not a guarantee. It's going to happen at any time here, but a common enough that traders look out for it typically here. So another old high water mark here near 176 stands out as a potential resistance area going forward. So we can see that our trajectory recently has been an upward trend line here. And we have switched back to our daily chart. Now to look at RSI our measure of momentum. So we can see here that we are above that 50 mid line. But we are in jeopardy of breaking down below our green trend line here. So be on the lookout if that starts to happen as well as if we start to break below that 50 mid line. Meanwhile, our 20 day simple moving average typically we look at exponentials. But this case a 20 day simple here comes in at 12475. So that could be another downside area to watch out for for potential support. Finally our volume profile study here shows that we have concentrations of trading activity at 149 to about 163. So that's around where we pause near that 150 level to the upside here. So look for a breakout into that area for a further solid phase that we could see around those points here. Additionally 135 to 140 is another heavier concentration area. All right. And as we look at space today space X is down about 3% right now, but still holding within that range that Charles is looking for. We're at 141, 68, well above that. 135 as we move to your next pick, we've got core. We've core, we've under some major pressure today. They're down more than 8.5%. But as we look over the last month, they're still up more than 30%. So how would you play core weave here Charles. Yeah. You know again very bullish overall. We should expect these pullbacks. And again these growth stocks especially the neo cloud names tend to get hit pretty hard on these pullbacks. You know I was initially looking at this 98 level. And if it was able to hold I love the 102 calls for the 828 strike for 75. Now it's obviously trading slightly below. It's trading at 97. So if you were to take this shot I would still only allocate around 25% as a risk parameter. I do believe that the upside could be really, really good here. This could knock on the door easily in between 108 to 125 in the very near term. Now, if it starts to work lower and you don't want to be a buyer at this level, I would focus on the 92 price point, see if it's going to hold. That's a very critical technical level. The 200 day simple moving average, but also convergence of other key technical indicators there. And if you were to be a buyer at the 92, I would actually focus on the 98 strike. Same price points right around 475, 450 or lower with a small allocation, 25%. I believe that the actual overall return, especially in that short time frame, could knock on the door of 100%. We see four. We've making these moves, and on average, there have been trading at around, you know, 8 to $9 a day. So it wouldn't take much if they gain any upside momentum. I would say right now probably patience is a virtue and expect that 92 price to be at play. All right. Patience not a virtue for many though but two potential plays there. The 92 if we if we pull back with that 98 strike, if we head towards 92 and the 102. So Rick, as you look at the technical setup here for core, we've. What are you seeing and what levels stood out to you? Right. So 95 is one level I highlighted. The reason why is that was the start of an old gap from back here. We bottomed out there multiple times. Then after the breakdown it came became a resistance area. Now that's roughly where our low is coming in. So around this area really stands out to me as well. Further downside area to watch 85. That was another relative low and then also 69 here. That was a low close. And that was a floor for much of our price activity during the period from November to about April or so, we did have one close that was significantly beyond that, but it was just one day and we had a very quick turnaround. Then it became a floor once again. Another couple days of serious declines. 6055 is where our low ultimately came in, but then a push back to the upside. So in terms of upside areas to watch out for for resistance and old high stands out here. We had a bunch of chop through this area. 115 was an area that I would be curious about to keep an eye on. Also. 126 is where a gap began here. Not too much activity beyond that level either. So if we were to now advance our chart, moving averages in this case, give a bit of a confluence here. That 92 area we have our three longer term averages 2163 and 251 all coming together right around that 91 to 93 level here. These are exponential moving averages once again here. So that remains a notable area to watch out for as well. RSI above 50 midline. But our trend line has been broken here. We had a shorter term green trend line that has been breached here. You could also draw shorter term one here. But that's also been broken by this measure. So not too clear of a directional bias from momentum at this time. So volume profile shows a node here near about 105 or so. Another one here near about 115 to 120. But most of the trading activity is down here 7886 is our point of control. Much of the trading volume between 73 to 100 or so. All right. And right now as we look at core we've it is retracing down closer to that 92 not holding this 98 level. So patience, the virtue, as Charles said, if you're looking at core, we've right now it's at 97, 32. Let's talk about your last pick here. We've got circle a very volatile chart as we're looking. They had a pop in the spring, a pop in early summer, and we have had some momentum on its side over the last month. But over the last 52 weeks it's significantly underperforming the market. So how are you looking at circle Charles. Yeah. You know, I've noticed this week in the last two days that the crypto stocks have actually held up pretty well and have actually been some really strong performers. This one really stands out. This one, from a charting standpoint, has a little bit more clarity in terms of breakout upside, as opposed to names like MSR coin and even names like hood. Today, they've defended their lows pretty aggressively. So actually, again, like the short term contracts, the. 828 I'm looking at the 75 strike here. You know, I would suggest that around 250 I think you could bid up as high as $3. I do think that 50% risk here is the way to go. But you know, all things considered, $150 to see the outcome. Well, the outcome could be pretty significant because if it gets and breaks out above the $76, I think that they have the ability of marching pretty aggressively upwards towards $84. Now, I'm not sure they'll be able to hit that mark, but I certainly believe that they'll at least try and push on $80, and getting through 80 should be able to get through 84 or get to 84 relatively easy. They've been holding the support again, pretty good performer there down for the day. But you know, in consideration to other tech names and momentum names that are breaking these lows and trending down, you know, in a short term fashion, this one's defending their lows and they're trying to bid up. So I like the, you know, lower risk value that could become big reward. It certainly has the chart to allow that breakout play to happen. The question is will it break out. But I feel that the risk is absolutely worth it in this situation. All right. So as we look at circle just over its recent performance, Ric, I mean, certainly performing better than Bitcoin prices are which have been very rangebound of late. How are you looking at the chart here in the technical setup? Yeah, sure. So first of all, 78 is an area I have highlighted quite close to the 7750 break even on the trade. The reason is that was a repeated low point that we saw there. So if we were to break into that area then that that could be an interesting point to watch out for because that would open the door to retesting this old double bottom before we had a gap down near about 90. So those would be some upside areas traders may have their eyes on here in the shorter term downward sloping trend line in blue has been broken. Here. We now have a shorter term upward sloping trend line in white here. So we are right on the verge of that trend line. So that that would be another point to consider here. 59 a repeated floor stands out. Also we had our lows 4990 here. That could also be a line in the sand to watch out for for further downside if things do start to deteriorate. So now in this case our moving averages are more dispersed. They're more widely spread apart here. Our faster five day EMA is starting to overtake the slower ones. We have crossed above the 21 day. So our five day in dark blue comes in at 7240 or so right now, pretty close to our trend line. So that could be a confluence to watch out for. Meanwhile, our 63 day EMA in gold 7517 is overhead a little bit. So that presents another resistance area as well. RSI 5580 right now not doing too terribly much here in terms of a stronger trend but still in bullish territory here. So look for it to start overtaking its previous highs along with price. If we do start to get a push to the upside. Finally volume profile here shows that we have a node in this area at these lower extremes between about 60 to 74. Then another heavy heavy trading area right here. The heaviest of all is our volume profile point of control near 84. So that would be a consolidative area to watch out for and a potential hurdle that would pave the way then to the thinly traded areas that could represent fast moving prices above 87 or so. All right. Right now as we look at circle, we are at 7281 under a little pressure. Today we're down about two and a third percent for circle. Charles, I want to thank you for being with us for bi