VanEck's Matthew Sigel: 'Bitcoin is one of the best hedges you can find'

everything you need. Our best >> HERE'S SOMETHING WE HAVEN'T SAID IN A WHILE. CRYPTO IS RALLYING AGAIN. BITCOIN IS BACK ABOVE $72,000 AFTER THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT SURPRISE ANNOUNCEMENT YESTERDAY BOOSTED RISK ASSETS. YOU COULD SAY TO BASEMENT ASSETS. ANYWAY. THAT ISN'T THE ONLY CATALYST FOR CRYPTO. COINBASE CEO BRIAN ARMSTRONG JOINED CNBC THIS MORNING, SOUNDING CONFIDENT ABOUT NEXT MONTH'S CLARITY ACT VOTE. >> I'M PRETTY OPTIMISTIC IT WILL GET OVER 60 VOTES, AND I THINK BOTH SIDES GOT 90% OR SO OF WHAT THEY WANT, WHICH, YOU KNOW, IN ANY DEAL. I'VE BEEN A PART OF THAT. YOU SAY YES TO THAT DEAL. >> WELL, PREDICTION MARKETS AREN'T SHARING HIS OPTIMISM. KALKI IS PRICING IN JUST A 23% CHANCE THAT CLARITY BECOMES LAW BY YEAR END. JOINING US NOW IS VANECK FUNDS HEAD OF DIGITAL ASSETS RESEARCH MATTHEW SIEGEL. MATTHEW, GOOD TO SEE YOU. WHAT ODDS WOULD YOU GIVE IT? YOU'VE BEEN YOU'VE BEEN PRESCIENT. I NOTED WHEN WHEN BITGO STARTED, BITCOIN STARTED RALLYING AGAIN. I REMEMBER YOU TELLING US TO MAYBE LOOK FOR A LITTLE BIT OF THAT UPSIDE. BUT WHAT WOULD YOU SAY ABOUT CLARITY AT THIS POINT? >> I DON'T THINK THIS MOVE IS ABOUT CLARITY AT ALL. I THINK THIS IS ALL ABOUT WHAT THE TREASURY HAS DONE, AND IT IS REIGNITING THESE FEARS OF OF FISCAL DOMINANCE. I HEARD YOUR LAST GUEST SAY THAT HE BILLS AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE MARKETABLE DEBT. IS IS NORMAL RANGE. I DISAGREE WITH THAT. THE TREASURY'S OWN ADVISORY COMMITTEE RECOMMENDS T-BILLS AROUND 15 TO 20% OF MARKETABLE DEBT. WE'RE AT 23% AND GOING HIGHER. SO AS THE TREASURY FINANCES MORE OF THAT DEBT ON THE SHORT END, IT HITS THE FISCAL BALANCE IMMEDIATELY. IT MAKES KEEPING RATES HIGH INCREASINGLY EXPENSIVE. SOMETHING HAS TO ABSORB THAT PRESSURE. THE MARKET'S TELLING YOU IT'S THE DOLLAR. AND OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS, THE ONLY PERSISTENT CORRELATION THAT BITCOIN HAS SHOWN IS A NEGATIVE ONE WITH THE DOLLAR. SO YOU KNOW WE THINK THIS ULTIMATELY MEANS LOWER REAL RATES A STRUCTURALLY WEAKER DOLLAR. AND BITCOIN IS ONE OF THE BEST HEDGES YOU CAN FIND ON THAT DYNAMIC. SO I DON'T THINK THE MARKET'S LOOKING AT CLARITY RIGHT NOW. >> I I THINK YOU JUST SAID IT PERFECTLY. I THINK YOU JUST PERFECTLY ENCAPSULATED WHY WE'VE SEEN THE MOVE THE LAST DAY AND A HALF THAT WE HAVE FROM THE TREASURY'S ANNOUNCEMENT. EVERYBODY ELSE SAYS THAT PEOPLE LIKE ME ARE OVERREACTING. I DON'T THINK SO. I THINK IT'S A BIG DEAL WHAT THEY'RE DOING. NOW, WE MIGHT DISAGREE ABOUT WHETHER THAT'S EXPRESSED IN BITCOIN OR IN GOLD OR WHAT HAVE YOU. WE SHOULD SHOW THE DOLLAR AS WELL. THE DXY MAYBE, AND THIS IS WHY YOU LOOK AT JAPAN AND WHAT HAPPENS. THEY'RE CAPPING WHAT CAN HAPPEN WITH RATES. AND SO PEOPLE ARE SHORTING THE CURRENCY. THEY'RE PUSHING IT LOWER. I DON'T WANT THE SAME THING TO HAPPEN HERE. BUT YOU'RE POSITIONING FOR IT. I MEAN YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN. YOU WE SORT OF FEEL LIKE THAT'S THE PATH THAT WE'RE ON. IS THAT RIGHT? >> YEAH. I THINK IT'S IT'S EASY FOR POLICYMAKERS TO HANDLE A SLIGHTLY WEAKER DOLLAR AND A LITTLE BIT HIGHER INFLATION THAN IT IS AN EXPLODING BUDGET DEFICIT. SO YEAH, I THINK IT CAPS RATES. AND THAT'S WHERE BITCOIN SHINES. AND THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT IT IS FOR BITCOIN IS THAT IT CAME AT A TIME WHEN GIVEN THE FOUR YEAR CYCLE, BITCOIN WAS ALREADY LOOKING VERY LATE IN ITS CORRECTION. THE AVERAGE BEAR MARKET IS ABOUT 12 MONTHS. WE'RE TEN MONTHS IN. WE LOOK AT A LOT OF METRICS AROUND THE AVERAGE COST BASIS AND WHAT THE DERIVATIVES MARKET IS SAYING. SO WE'VE GOT THESE 12 CAPITULATION INDICATORS. THEY'VE ALL FIRED A POSITIVE FOR BITCOIN IN THE LAST THREE MONTHS. EIGHT OUT OF THE 12 ARE POSITIVE RIGHT NOW. VOLATILITY WAS AT AN ALL TIME LOW. SO IT WAS A IT WAS A COILED SPRING. AND I THINK IT GOES HIGHER. >> SO WHERE DOES IT GO. QUICKLY RUNNING SHORT ON TIME. BUT THAT'S WHAT MOST PEOPLE CARE ABOUT IS 100 K NOW LATER IN THE FUTURE. I MEAN COULD IT GO HIGHER? BUT IN ALL SERIOUSNESS, WHAT DO YOU SEE AS AS LIKELY TO BE THE NEXT MOVE? HOW HIGH? WHEN? >> WELL, SO FAR THE MOVE IS ALL SHORT COVERING. YOU KNOW, THERE'S BEEN $3 BILLION OF SHORT LIQUIDATIONS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THAT'S AN ALL TIME RECORD. SO, YOU KNOW, IT FEELS LIKE IF WE GET THE REAL MONEY STEPPING IN, MAYBE WE GO HIGHER. NOTHING IS IN A STRAIGHT LINE. I TOLD YOU GUYS 100 K WOULD BE NEXT YEAR. I STILL BELIEVE THAT. AND THEN YOU KNOW, LONG TERM 2029 SAY WE