Bitcoin's Best Week in 3 Years: Why the Bull Market Just Started

Bitcoin as a very attractive asset again. As you can see here, we've seen some of the good like amount of long positions at the bottom. We also seeing some new long position here as well. We also have a long position again. So, I think the rally is going to continue. >> I didn't know how healthy this was. It was just a big short squeeze, but it sounds like you're saying it's definitely not. >> Definitely not. It's pretty normal that in the early bull phase having this short squeeze also as a trader, I think it's considered as a start point of the bull run. >> Well, Bitcoin coming off one of the best weeks that we've seen in about 3 years time surging after we saw the Treasury step into the bond market. And as you look at the charts, a lot of people are wondering whether or not this rally will hold as we see Bitcoin move closer and closer to that 80K level. And uh zooming out, worth putting it into context. And excited to have on the show with us on Coinage today, uh the founder over at CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju on with us today. Uh Ki, it's good to see you, man. Thanks for coming on. >> Yeah, thanks for having me. >> Yes, and I I need to give you your credit as well because uh right before this move had happened a couple shows ago, uh we on Coinage were talking about some of your tweets and flagging that uh gold and Bitcoin had started to trade a little bit in lockstep. And there's a lot of good data that you guys share over at CryptoQuant. Um so, shout out to you and what you had been flagging because there were some anomalies as we were seeing some of Bitcoin get back into its old groove as a little bit of a a debasement play here. Um but I I guess the first question to you, my friend, is whether or not you're seeing more data that would show you that this move is going to hold. Are we finally into the new bull market. >> Yeah, I think um um the um institutional investors, they start thinking um Bitcoin as a very attractive asset again. So, uh that's why Bitcoin and gold it's moving um pretty similar um uh price action recently. And um we we've seen a lot of institutional demand demand on chain, also off chain through ETF flows. Um so, if you um if you see on chain demand recently, um we we have a an indicator called uh apparent demand. Apparent demand is uh the demand we've seen uh we we can see on chain. So, if apparent demand goes up, uh that means a lot of OTC deals um across institutional in- institutional [clears throat] wallets, uh which is uh which are custodial wallets and broker brokerage services, uh they trade a lot recently. So, if you see um the demand from spot, which is OTC deals um from institutional clients, and futures, uh which is which is I'll say open interest, uh is also increasing. So, I would say um the demand on Bitcoin from institutions, it's um it's it's pretty hot right now. >> Yeah, no, for sure. And I think also, uh you know, when we look at maybe some of the other pieces here, uh I think I'm just pulling up a a tweet from you guys at CryptoQuant again around the idea of where most holders may be uh in profits, and I think that that's always interesting to think about. Uh both both things stand out to me. One is what's going to happen in terms of uh whether or not some people might be selling this rally and we might see a pullback or two whether or not this was really kind of uh driven by leverage and it doesn't seem to be this time as we're seeing more inflows on the ETF side. It It seems to me yes, of course, there were a lot of shorts that were liquidated in this move. Maybe one of the more violent uh short liquidation moments we've we've ever seen in Bitcoin. Um but how do you kind of suss out kind of the the health of this rally? >> So, I think still if you can see piano of the blockchain wallets which can be seen by um MVRV um market value to realize value. It's still um tra- traditionally speaking it's it's it doesn't hit the bottom uh level. Or you know, this cycle has been different because of the multiple uh liquidity channels. So, I'll say Bitcoin OG traders they had a their most profitable cycle ever because unlike the past cycles um crypto exchange traders were not the actual liquidity. ETFs and the ATs they're the actual liquidity for the the last cycle. So, this structural bid um pushed the traders real- unrealized profits to nearly triple to the uh compared to the 2021 top. So, I think um we're we we've been in a deleveraging period, but you know, um it's not going to the cycle doesn't going to go it it it's not going to go like you know, simply just like um the mar- the market was simple back in uh 2021. We only have a miners um crypto exchange traders um, which are whales and retailers. [clears throat] >> Mhm. >> And that that's it, right? Um, when miners are when whales are OG whales are selling and then miners are capitulating and then retailers get capitulating and then the cycle was done. But right now, even those um, three participants they're selling you know, sellers are buying and ETFs are buying, so it's like pretty con- confusing >> Yeah. >> market right now. But, um, the market doesn't it's not going to go simply just um, you know, going cycles, but I think right now the important thing is institutional demand um, has been recovering. Um, even those you know, OG whales um, decide to sell or retailers are still selling, but that doesn't matter, I think. And if you see the my recent tweets >> Mhm. >> um, OG whales as well, they are also buying in this cycle and they're um, they bought a long position on a uh futures futures market. So, if we have an indicator called um, IFP. IFP means inter-exchange uh, flow um, pulse. So, this is this measures how much um, Bitcoin has been um flowing into um, futures exchange futures oriented exchange like Binance or other global exchanges from Coinbase, which is uh, spot oriented. Um, so we this IFP is also going up, which is like which means whales are right now they're risk on mode and >> Yeah. >> the take or buy sell ratio you just pulled up the chart. >> Yeah. >> Um that means whales are they they open a long position right before the um the rally and then they >> They always seem to know or they may be the ones who who triggered it. I don't I don't know but I do think that to me is one of the interesting kind of questions here as well cuz it is still it is still a relatively small market, right? In terms of Bitcoin being the size that it is. We're seeing the treasury kind of step in here and and try and for lack of a better word manipulate uh interest rates down on the long end and that's like a $4 billion buy and the bond market's huge. It's massive. But you think about Bitcoin, it's like I don't know where where is the market cap of it now? Like $3 trillion something like that? Around there. Um so it's like not not that crazy to suspect that some people could be able to swing these just given moving money around. Um but you are right to point out. I think it is interesting because even in this rally and we're going to talk about Tom Lee and and Ethereum later on in the show. But even in this rally Saylor didn't buy last week. We just got the 8K from them. They raised uh it was a massive $2 billion in terms of uh how much they raised through MSCI this time around but no Bitcoin buys. So it's not as if to your point on that we can say that it was really strategy driven this time cuz it's not. >> Right. >> So how much how much do you think to your point on like which part of this new maybe bottoming process into the bull like how do you see that shaping up? I I I keep hearing from a lot of people saying in prior cycles there's usually one violent move down before you can say we're out of the woods. I'm not sure I agree with that just kind of given the fact that we also didn't see a huge 80% drawdown this time around about 50% in terms of coming down from the the old all-time high of 120 to about, you know, the 60 and below range. So, what do you say about that? >> So, um I think in terms of um speaking of market uh not manipulation, but like um whales uh they're driven driving the market uh with the whales. Still, uh that's what I that's my view is still. And um uh whales they they their um position is pretty clear on chain because when they sell they move their old coins um to uh you know, other OTC wallet wallets or other like brokerage services to sell their coins. Uh waiting when they uh decide not to sell um they move their coins to like I said, you know, you can see some flows between spot exchanges and futures exchanges uh to see their like you know, a futures position. And also um uh we we have an indicator like a apparent demand and ETM flows and you know um some of the realized profit indicators they they says they're they're saying like um basically these whales uh profit realization it's it's pretty much done. So, I would say you know, if if I were a OG whales um I I can uh if I if I were a representative for them I'll say like they um you know, decided um to sell heavily in this um like you know um in this rally. So, I I we we haven't seen um signi- significant uh, you know, real uh, profit realization or like capitalization from any like big entities for now, but you know, uh, who knows. Um This might be a big rebound, but like I I think like they're they If they were If they were trying [snorts] to fake this like pull run, um, they won't you know, open a big long position at the bottom. Yeah. Yeah, you you can see a lot of indicators um that um, these like these were OG whales, they pumped a long position at the bottom. Uh, not just market data, but also on-chain data. So, yeah, if you're interested, I can share my screen, but you know, >> Yeah, no, I mean, we'll see if we can actually allow that. I don't know. I'm I'm looking at my producer, he may be having a heart attack as you're throwing this on us, but he may he may try and accept your screen there while I also blabber on about other things because I think one of the other interesting points around this too is um is the idea of altcoins also potentially kind of seeing their moment in the sun. I saw another tweet uh, from you guys at CryptoQuant basically saying that uh the level of gains from altcoins may also be signaling kind of the beginning of altcoin season. I I also think it's probably important to maybe point out that maybe some of those coins that have been around for cycles and cycles may not be true beneficiaries ala the altcoin seasons that we've seen in the past because this meta of kind of what hyper liquid has been driving, which is buying back tokens based on revenue and how those tokens have shined Um versus maybe some of the older ones. However, you know, Solana still having its moment this cycle as well. Um maybe before if we do get to to sharing your screen, maybe we do I'll sneak in a question about altcoin season whether or not you see that. Um What are your thoughts there? >> Uh so for altcoins, I think um we as highly likely we we won't see the altcoin season like 2021. Um we won't see the the altcoin season again because um you know, Bitcoin I mean, this this cycle has been driven by institutional demand >> Mhm. >> from ETF ETFs or you know, um the ATs uh which which are basically paper Bitcoin. And if altcoins has a liquidity channel from trade traditional finance like paper altcoins uh Solana or other major top 10 coins they have they do have ETFs. So, these coins can get some liquidity from ETFs or the ATs. But other um altcoins um except for um some like special coins we uh it's hard to for them it's hard to get a new liquidity from trade fi. Also, crypto exchanges they right now they support tokenized stocks and you know, uh RTAs. So, you can trade stocks and oil, metal metal on you know, Binance for example, right? So, it's for them it's hard to get liquidity from retailers just by um just by appealing the narrative. Um because they they can't compete with stocks by the same narratives. Um So, except for the [clears throat] newly launched coins, which are just like driven by narratives. >> Yeah. >> Uh if you are like long if if you are are trying to long la- last standing like 3 years, 5 years, you have to compete with the stocks. So, that's uh that's very hard like tough season for these like low like small mid-cap altcoins. >> Yeah, I would I would echo that as well. And I think that that's why it's been very interesting to kind of watch some of the best performers here obviously. Uh And it's it's partially also one of the reasons why Ethereum continues to be one of one of the largest treasury holdings in terms of what the Coinage DAO holds. Um but also we're due to kind of have an investment committee decision. And this is why I ask because I think there are some of these opportunities that are popping up now specifically lighter and some of these other ones that have been trading somewhat in a catch-up trade to hyperliquid and some of these others. But I do think we can allow you to share your screen if you want to. Maybe we sneak in uh some of these live charts uh with with what you've got to share. Uh we give it a go here because because why not? Why not do it live? >> Yeah. >> And I think, you know, it is important to kind of flex some of these signals too because as you mentioned I I still think there is truth. We were just chatting with Caitlin Long, uh Custodia Bank founder, at the SALT conference in Wyoming last week. And for as much as all of the stuff still matters in terms of what's happening, as you said, in paper Bitcoin land, some of the underlying on-chain fundamentals are just as important as ever when it comes to tracking those things, particularly among the miners as you point out. When they capitulate, when they've been selling things, hash rate, etc., all of the cycle goes back to the having. And and what we've seen and so like a lot of the on-chain things do do matter but I do think we have your screen so go ahead feel free walk us through it the minds of a genius we're getting into here appreciated show us what you got. >> Yeah so um this is like I said flows from uh spot driven exchanges to futures driven exchanges. So when uh futures whales they decided to send a lot of bitcoins as a collateral to open a long positions or like and like futures positions I'll say but like mostly they're long positions. Um uh when when this like indicator flips um I'll say futures whales they start opening a long positions. Um and the as you can see here um the red the green zone it's a it's like a moving average uh be uh MACD um between um 90 days moving average and just IFP indicator. >> Mhm. >> And as you can see here um it's it's going up and then it's when it's going down which means uh whales start like um positioning as a risk off. Right now it's they start like repositioning like as a you know like a risk on mode but you know it's not very significant for now but um I was saying like the um the risk uh risk off period has been like stopped as you can see here it stopped like a few months ago but like it start like taking off and if you see other indicators like um one >> this is why I love having you on to kind of dig into all these and all this stuff coming from CryptoQuant. It's always very good. >> Yeah. Uh this is um Coinbase premium index. >> Yes. >> So we see institutional um demand um has been recovering as well. So it's right now it's green here. Um >> Yeah, this is another one that are are there a preferred uh guess? This is one that Shawn Farrell and a lot of analysts I know tend to really focus on the Coinbase premium to kind of show where the US bid is coming from. >> Yeah, US bid is uh has been recovering. Also um this one is interesting. So if you see like Oh yeah, we we we have had a um recent um long position again. So if you see hourly data here Um so at the bottom uh taker buy sell ratio is um taker buy volume uh which which means market order uh for futures position um divided by the future sell uh I mean market order sell volume uh which is taker sell volume. So that's that means like in an hour um traders open long position with using market order um a lot. Um so when this like indicator spikes um with that means long position opening long position using market order um uh it's uh it's significantly unusually high. So, uh when this um So, it's like as you can see here um we've seen um some of the good like amount of long positions at the bottom. >> Yeah. >> Right now, we also uh seeing some like new long position here as well. So, this this This period was when I like tweeted on it. And then right now, we all all Again, we also have a long position again. So, I think um the rally is going to continue. Um and And last lastly uh last not but not least um >> More gasoline. More gasoline in this engine [laughter] to keep this thing running is what uh is what it sounds like here. Okay. >> Mhm. So, the most important indicator I think right now is demand growth. >> Okay. >> So, >> Yeah, there's there's always like eight different ways to slice a bit of where you're seeing new buy demand coming from. So, this is interesting. >> So, when when it's a bull market, um both futures demand and spot demand um goes up and like net positive. But, when in when it's a bull market, spot market and futures market um goes like doesn't resonate. Um doesn't go in a same direction. Um So, if you see um you know, green and this like bluey chart um when when it it's like net positive. >> Mhm. >> That means like money is flowing into the both big spot and futures market. Right now, this is like the first I mean um This is first time since uh 2025 October all-time high. Um that the both futures and spot um goes like net positive. >> Interesting. >> So >> And that has basically been, you know, that was the that was the >> Yeah, that was that was like here. And then we go the demand goes down, declining. And then all the way down there and never both spot and futures demand has been like going same same direction. And then we recover. And then going same direction. Um, it's just like you know, the last bull cycle. And yeah, compared to the last like dead cat bounce as you can see here, it was futures driven. And there's there wasn't like spot demand right? Um, spot demand has been always been nega- negative like this. >> Yeah. >> Um, and then spot demand goes like goes up and then gets recover. And futures demand also gets recover, so we're like I think the sentiment is like amazing right now. >> Yeah, it's interesting. And I mean like I I I I don't know. I mean, obviously I think a lot of people were kind of caught flat-footed by that um by this rally perhaps if they hadn't been paying attention to your tweets or hadn't watched kind of some of our episodes ahead of time trying to call the bottom. And obviously, you know, we've kind of been trading sideways. One of the things that's interesting is for the last few months, it's kind of been caught in this range and everyone was basically expecting, because we did see implied volatility kind of hit a cycle low, basically it was going to break one way or the other. And now here we are, broken to the upside and you've just pointed out, I think like 10 different charts that are saying that there's more more to move here. So, I think that's helpful. I think that's I think that that's kind of what we were we were going for is, all right, let's get Ki Young's take on maybe how healthy this is. Is this just kind of because of the short liquidations, because I think it was record short liquidations. >> crazy for sure. >> Yeah, and so I didn't know how healthy this was. It was just a big short squeeze, but it sounds like you're saying it's definitely not. >> Definitely not. And it's it's pretty normal that in the early bull phase um having this short squeeze is um it's cuz I'll say as a trader, I think it's considered as a um start point of the bull run. >> Yeah. Well, that's pretty exciting. And and again, I want to I want to shout out all the charts that you just showed um uh you know, over on the CryptoQuant side. And I think, you know, we might we might have to hit you up after this to see if we can maybe potentially unlock some things for our Coin Age community members as well, because that was all very helpful. Uh and can't thank you enough for popping on today, man. We got to have you back soon and check in and see how this all plays out because I do think I'm in the same camp as you. Uh so, thank you again for the time. >> Yeah, thanks, Zach. >> It was great it was great to chat and it's been a while, but thank you again. I appreciate that and we'll continue on with the show here. Uh that there, Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, walking us through the charts. First time we've done that in a while. I actually think that was kind of fun. Uh if you like that, a like on this, throw a comment in there uh because maybe we'll do more Monday kind of in the charts trading technicality stuff um since I'm always chatting macro and kind of trying to look at things from a different lens, but but there was a lot there as we just chatted about with Key because uh specifically I think one of the elements too, more so on like the just general where are we piece of this and who's really buying. I was just on Yahoo Finance kind of talking about this last week and uh important to see now from the strategy 8K that it was not Saylor who was buying this. It was that that narrative has kind of gone away uh in terms of strategy really being the mover here. They didn't buy. Uh and instead they actually continued to just raise cash. And so when we're talking fuel that could potentially be here, everything Key just walked through, basically the charts and the idea of what's happening in futures and leverage and then you've got more gas being basically stockpiled uh by Strategy & Co. And a few others by the way, Strive, they did they did buy Bitcoin. Uh the other big Bitcoin kind of leverage play. So that's interesting. >> And then on the Ethereum side, uh just to kind of wrap up and pair the dots around Bitcoin ETH and then all the other things, we've got a huge interview coming your way this week. If you haven't checked it out, um subscribe to our YouTube. That's where we post the long-form versions of all these and we had Caitlin Long and her call that we bottomed. She's in that camp. Definitely look like that was true. Of course, it's a little bit easier when we saw post huge uh 20% move higher in the ETH camp. But even interesting to see her talking about ETH now, not just uh fully super excited about what's happening in the Bitcoin community, but Caitlin Long even uh calling out the tokenization theme as Custodia has been building stablecoins on ETH. Um but we've got a big interview with David Seamus, the DAT behind Hyperliquid, the largest Hyperliquid DAT. Uh that one's going to be publishing this week as well. I don't think that move is over yet either. Uh >> [snorts] >> after Trump talked about Hyperliquid in his press conference. But let's chat about ETH because if this is this is kind of interesting. Tom Lee was on Bankless and just want to play a little clip of what he was talking about there because Bitmain actually did buy ETH. Uh and it's important to point out, unlike strategy, which has been really leaning into kind of again, stretch and MSTR as you guys have been doing there. Uh and what they've been doing there. Bitmain really has just kind of been steady as she goes. Uh they've just been buying ETH every week basically since they began. And uh let's just bring up that press release, shall we Texas, and see that one because uh it's interesting. They bought about $80 million this past this past week of new ETH. Their long-stated goal has been 5%. They want to own 5% of ETH. The alchemy of 5% as they call it, which is good marketing uh if you ask me. Uh because I don't know what the alchemy is, they're just buying it up and holding it, but it sounds sexier. They're at 4.8%, so they are very close after they acquired another 32,447 ETH this past week. Um and Tom Lee points out that they bought ETH every week since the inception of their uh that back in June of 2025, 14 months ago. So he has constantly been scooping up more and more ETH. But on Bankless, he was talking about potentially moving past 5% and how quickly that could happen. And uh just want to play what we heard from him and then also play what we heard from him back in October of last year when we were at Korea Blockchain Week to kind of square those points and potentially see if he is also maybe a good equivalent to what we saw from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Basically greasing the wheels for hey, I've got a bazooka potentially we could go to. Take a listen to what Tom said on Bankless here. >> I think a lot of enterprises are going to want to hold ETH um as an asset if it's something that's going to be used. And um in a in a way that they view holding something from a real estate perspective. And if that's the case, then I think for us to own own more than 5% uh would make a lot of sense. But, I again, I think that's probably something we're going to rethink in 2027. >> So, he wants to rethink it in 2027, but opening the door to owning more than 5%. This is something that I asked Tom Lee back on stage, uh, on the keynote for Korea Blockchain Week, uh, about why he landed on this alchemy of 5% and what it would look like if he were to move past that because of course there are potentially concentration risks in some of this. And it's interesting to see him talk about that because I think if I were a betting man, I would say that he's definitely going to blow past the alchemy of 5%. It could be the alchemy of 10% uh, and that would mean a lot more buying coming from Bitmain, uh, particularly as all the animal spirits return to crypto, which I think is a very important point to point out uh, when it comes to the reflexivity of kind of escaping, exploring past this. Take a listen. Granted, this has been almost a year, so we got to get Tom back on to unpack this because I think what he said this week is just starting to grease the wheels, but here's what he said last year and why I think he's already done the research around expanding beyond 5%. Take a listen. >> I've actually spoken to some researchers about this. Like, what's too much concentration? Um, 5% is where you get a power law benefit. Not that um you know, it starts to break down. Um, these same researchers have actually told us that it's pretty safe to go to 10% of Ethereum. And, uh, as you know, Ethereum, no one controls it. I mean, if some entity owned 10%, uh, and it of course that entity is a permanent capital vehicle and is going to be staking and doesn't want to get slashed, you know, so they're going to make sure they're validating properly, I'd actually think it really secures the network because now all of a sudden you, you know, a a DApp, by the way, is completely decentralized, right? It's owned by shareholders. Like Bitmain has 270,000 shareholders. That's actually who controls Bitmain. It's not centralized. >> Now, I like that point because there are only a few different crypto communities that I think actually care about decentralization, ETH being one of them. He does raise a good point. It is kind of one of the more interesting things about DApps so long as the power structure there within them is is kind of done correctly. Um and they're not over-levered to the point where potentially a bankruptcy could you know something like that could become problematic, but certainly I wouldn't count Bitmain in that camp. And I think that it's pretty interesting to think about what the world could look like if we do see uh Bitmain adopt the alchemy of 10% versus 5%. And particularly when you kind of look at the longer-term ETH chart, by the way, as well. Um you know, I think there's a lot of room still to run when you think about getting back to prior highs as well. Uh 47 and where did we top out back here? Around that same kind of level. I mean, look, this is something that we heard even from Caitlin Long and I think it was interesting. We saw this tweet blow up. Um mostly because it was retweeted by one Tom Williams, so I think that's, you know, fair of me to point out. Um because maybe there is some concentration risk when it comes to the biggest ETH cheerleaders. Granted, however, uh I think this is something that we heard on the ground and we even heard it from Caitlin Long, which is my point here, is that even she admits, and granted, she says that she's been mislabeled a Bitcoin maxi, um but we are hearing it from more and more people in the Bitcoin camp that the tokenization theme is starting to come true in terms of where people are building. Uh Custodia also experimenting on Ethereum with their kind of bank stable coins, but we've been seeing this a lot. And Caitlin told us that Tom Lee's theory of institutions turning to Ethereum for their tokenization experiments, stable coins, etc., the like is starting to come true. Uh and I think the reason why that one exploded is because there are a lot of people who understand that this is always been Tom Lee's thesis. Now, to be fair, you know, Tom did say when we were on stage here together that he did see ETH getting to, I believe, 10 or 12 by the end of 2025. That, of course, did not play out. However, um we did see that massive liquidation event in October as well, right after we had that discussion and everything went to shite in in cryptoland. So, uh considering that happened and now here we are through the old bull or sorry, the bear cycle, I think it's very interesting to think about how much of what he had predicted back then could become true given we saw about a year's delay, but the thesis has not slowed down at all. We've continued to see larger and larger institutions build uh what they're building on Ethereum. So, I do think it's worth taking another look at a lot of these things and continuing to think that if Bitcoin is going to get back to 120k, uh certainly I don't think it's much of a stretch to say ETH would get back to that 47.5k level and potentially even return to what we heard from Tom Lee in that original price target of 12k. Uh I think it's a good place to leave it there now though as we talked so much about Bitcoin and ETH. Of course, there is more coverage coming from our uh media partnership out at the Salt Wyoming conference. We've already published our interviews with Trump's big executive director uh of digital assets and that policy, his latest thoughts on clarity, as well as with Caitlin Long. Much more to come with Anthony Scaramucci himself, as well as David Shamus from Hyperledger Strategies. You can subscribe to our YouTube channel to catch all of that or head to Coinnage.media to see the articles and coverage as well as you can mint a membership pass to co-own Coinnage with us as the only community-owned media outlet built on Ethereum. That just, by the way, huge props to everyone who has owned this with us. Just [music] announced and distributed our second annual distribution back to our members. So, congrats. Coinnage is here and walking the walk, baby. That's going to do it for us on this edition. We will see you again soon. Our thanks to CryptoQuant founder Ki for coming on with us as well. For everybody here at Coinnage, I'm Zack Guzman signing off.