Nvidia's Results Aren't 'Impressive Enough,' Seaport's Goldberg Says

Jay, what was your initial thoughts here, particularly with that $108 billion guidance for the current quarter? I think my initial impression is that's a really impressive quarter and nobody's going to care. Yeah, not impressive enough, I guess. Yeah, I mean, not impressive enough. But it gets to this idea, and I think I asked this question of a lot of our guests leading up to this is what can Jensen Wong and company actually say that does impress this market? It's not in the earnings release, but maybe it comes on the conference call. Jensen is a master orator. He, uh, typically can get a few brilliance up after after hours just by through pure magnetism. Um, his track record on that hasn't been so great the last couple of quarters, but he's a very good public speaker. He can be very persuasive. Uh, and so I think people know that. And so we're going to be reading second and third derivatives of every word he says, and interpreting his tone and his bearing, uh, to see what his real mood is, see if we can infer what his real mood is. Uh, but I think, you know, as much as I'm sort of negative on the stock, I'm sympathetic to them. They're putting up impressive numbers, and it's just very hard for the stock to get ahead. And I think that speaks to a lot of things you've just been talking about for the last few minutes. They're sold out. And where do you get upside when you're sold out? That's not going to change this year. Um, and so yeah, for the time being, it's going to be very hard for them to impress anybody enough to really move the stock. Well, I mean, some of the language in here in the release from Jensen was this idea about an inflection point when it comes to AI and what he says that compute is now revenue. He also says that if you're a Reuben is now in full production. So I understand maybe some of the disappointment for basically doubling revenue and profit year over year, maybe not quite moving the needle for Q2 or Q3, but as we get into 2027 and beyond, does Vera Rubin change that equation for you? I don't think Vera Rubin alone changes the equation. I think what is where they're really tight is around production capacity that they can get out of TSMC. How many chips can they actually get? That's that's going to be a hard constraint for the foreseeable future. Uh, what will start to change next year is they'll have Brock, which is a company they acquired. We'll start to ship in more volume. And that's not under the same production constraints. So maybe we'll get a little boost from there. They'll have some of the software stuff flowing into revenue next year. The revenue share they're putting in place with the NIO clouds. So there's a few possible things that could sort of alter the trajectory, improve the trajectory next year. But there are also a lot of things that can go wrong. It's getting harder and harder for them to do their job. A lot of forces are, you know, beyond their control that are starting to play out. So give me a sense here as to whether that's something that the company can actually mitigate. I mean, I know you say it's beyond their control, but this is still the dominant player. Uh, they have their tentacles and pretty much every AI player out there in this ecosystem. Does that not work to their advantage? I'm not sure. Time is on their side. I think that there are real constraints. There's real competition coming. AMD has, on paper, a comparable chip in its instinct series that's going to be shipping in volume next year. But we have Google TPU. We have now. OpenAI with jalapeno and anthropic with its chip will probably be out next year. So we're starting to see actual competition. I think it's safe to say that Nvidia is is still going to have the lion's share of the of the pool of the market, but there's a lot of a lot of detail and a lot of pricing questions. I'll start to come into play as those new chips really get into volume next year.