Elon Musk *NEW Speech* JUST Left G20 SPEECHLESS

Elon Musk just addressed the G20. Here it is. >> Well, yeah. I I think a lot of people have talked about this and I think some of it, frankly, is is is pretty straightforward, is that um you you have to have an environment that's relatively free of regulation, meaning that new things must be default legal as opposed to default illegal. Um so uh in in the EU for example we find that the the regulation level is extraordinarily high and things are generally default illegal. Um and this inhibits uh progress of new technologies. Um it it slows it down. It doesn't it doesn't ultimately stop it but it slows it down uh quite considerably. um that of course you need to have um a you need to have venture capitalists um and an environment that is supportive of new companies. You can think of new companies like little like they're like small saplings in a forest. So what what most countries tend to do is they tend to provide too much support to the large existing trees in the forest and not enough to the small saplings. But the large trees don't need the support. It's the small saplings that do the startups. And so the system should be generally biased towards supporting the small the small trees as opposed to the large ones. Um but that is rarely the case. Uh because the law the the the large companies have access to um usually they have access to the leadership of the countries and the small the small startups do not. So you so you really need to foster the the growth of of young companies and take active steps in that regard. Um and like I said make things default legal not default illegal. One one question that um a lot of the countries here face is a question around adoption. I think there's a a general um recognition that adopting emerging technologies can be very beneficial to economic growth um no matter what sort of shape size of of any country is. Um you know how do you think about adoption? What country what should countries be doing to encourage adoption? Does it go back to the same sort of regatory structures or or how do you think about adoption as a as a key driver for growth? >> Yeah, I I I think you you want to have a lean forward try new technologies approach to new technologies otherwise as opposed to be somewhat stuck in the past. Um naturally new technologies need need to be need some encouragement and and uh I I think should be embraced. Um We are going to see and are seeing in fact significant productivity gains from artificial intelligence. Um and and we'll see very dramatic gains in productivity from robotics. Um you know things like the Tesla self-driving car is going to be a tremendous boon or is a tremendous tremendous boon already um to users. Um and and I think humanoid robotics will be just an incredible change. I I think just to give you some sense of scale here, I think the um I I think AI will probably increase the global economy by 20 to 30%. That's my rough rough estimate. Um meaning on the order of 20 to 30 trillion per year. >> Yeah. Over what time frame? So he's saying per year. So he thinks he thinks a 20 to 30% boost on an annual basis. Let's let's rewind that for a moment. >> Global economy by 20 to 30%. That's my rough rough estimate. Um meaning on the order of 20 to30 trillion per year. >> Yep. Talking global. >> And and AI will be able to do anything digital. Anything that does not require shaping of atoms by hand um probably by the end of next year. So, as as I'm sure people know, uh AI is already incredibly good at software. Um, and it it's getting to the point where AI won't just be good at software. It'll be what I call Stockfish level good. So, Stockfish is a chess program that can beat the world's best chess players very easily. In fact, at this point, you could run Stockfish on your phone and beat Magnus Carlson at chess. So uh at some at some point next year is my prediction uh software will be so good AI software will be so good that it will be stockfish level good meaning that it is impossible for a human to compete um in writing software uh with AI but like AI will just crush all humans at software >> and I think it will it will be uh extremely good possibly stock level but but but certainly extremely good at all forms of of engineering and anything digital uh literally in 12 12 to 18 months. >> All right, so let's just be clear about what Elon is saying. He's not saying AI will crush all software. He's saying AI will crush software coding. That's at least what I just gathered from that. He says a human will not be able to compete with writing code because AI codegenerated software or software generated by AI code essentially will be so good it'll be indistinguishable from essentially master level chess players uh or master level coders and obviously Elon is exceptionally bullish right here on global gross domestic product suggesting that by the end of 2027 global GDP so everywhere you know throughout any kind of country could potentially grow 20 to 30% annually obviously some of the GDP growth that we're seeing in the United States which you know on Q3 data is running hot over 4% right now based on just current uh capital expenditures mostly artificial intelligence you know that's great but how much of that is because of the circular spend that we are seeing as opposed to real productivity growth now I think there's productivity growth in artificial intelligence and we see companies all the time referencing the productivity growth happening without inside of companies but at what point as companies have said we were looking at one in the course member live stream this morning remember we briefly extended that coupon code due to the glitch last Friday until this Friday uh but we were looking at a company this morning and they they warned hey AI is good but human in the loop artificial intelligence is better they make the argument that there's determin deterministic code or deterministic software and that there's generative software, agentic software and the best solution isn't all in on one or the other. It's actually both human helping write the deterministic solutions. You use the artificial intelligence where you can you don't get locked into a layer model. Uh and that reasonably competes with human labor. problem with that is if you compete with human labor at some point that actually has a risk of depressing GDP potentially before it rises that's obviously a downside risk. I one of the >> so actually let me add just one one more thing to that my apologies um the the so 20 30% increase of total global economy so this is quite a lot of prosperity we're talking about here um uh just just from digital AI but from robotics uh from um from humanoid basically think of it like a general purpose robot robot AI I think we'll see many multiples of the global economy meaning like you you increase the economy by a factor of 10 or more. >> These are mindboggling numbers. >> Yeah, I was just about to say that. I mean, one of the stats we gave to the group here was that um in the four years since sort of chat GBT was launched, I think we there's, you know, over a billion people around the world already using AI. There's been very quick uptake around around the country on around the world on that. I guess the question to you is I think a lot of people think about sort of the the next chapter being in this sort of applied or or sort of physical AI. where where do you see sort of robotics trending? How quickly is it going to be implemented? I think I remember in the first Trump administration we were talking about sort of automated factories and now we're a year later 10 years later. So how how you know how quickly do you think these these changes are happening in the sort of physical AI world? >> Yeah. So so anything physical always takes longer than anything which is digital. Digital you know it's when you solve something digitally it's a software that you can easily copy across other other computers. Um when it's physical, you've got to build up an entire mass of supply chain. You've got to you've got to move a lot of lot of atoms. Um all and and supply chains are very much global at this point. So uh that's why it takes longer. Nonetheless, um, when you think of humanoid robotics, the way the the way to think about it, I I think the right framework is to consider that the usefulness of a humanoid robot, a general purpose robot, is going to be um roughly the uh digital the the AI software, how good is the AI software times how good is the uh AI chip in the robot times how good is the electromechanical dexterity, especially of the hands. Um now all three of those things are improving exponentially. Um and and the usefulness of the robot is those those three things multiplied by each other. Then when you make the robots the robots will um um well the robots will start manufacturing the robots. So you get a recursive effect. So, it it's >> guys, invest in Tesla because we're going to get to fire all our employees and the Optimus robots will manufacture the Optimus robots. Now, in fairness, that is going to be the future. I actually don't think that the productivity per person is best served in a factory. So in fairness, I actually in the long term agree with Elon here. I think that vision is probably 15 years out. I think really the next the robotic revolution is this is my opinion. Maybe I'm too far off. I think the robotic revolution is probably between 2036 to 2045. So about 10 years out and for the next 10 years and maybe towards the end of that chain, so like 2045, that's when robots are assembling other robots. Uh you know, may maybe I'm too bearish on that. It's going to happen. But generally uh the standard of living rises as you move from a manufacturing economy to a service-based economy. Think for example if you look at uh you know Malaysia, Sri Lanka, China. uh the average worker working in a factory is unfortunately suffering well maybe I shouldn't say the average worker but many workers are suffering poor working conditions and they're just doing physical basic repetitive labor with their hands that in the longer term should all just be replaced by machinery and these are folks that should be working in the service industry and as global wealth rises more people can spend on travel entertainment hotels you know whatever airfare busing whatever it is that enables more of a sales-based service industry which rises the per capita income of everybody in a region and and that's really where humans should go. So I know that sounds really apocalyptic from Elon like they're all going to get fired uh in the long term it's actually a good thing. I just think it's going to take longer than than is typically projected. starts off very very slowly but then grows um at an explosive rate. >> Um so if you you say like 10 years from now I would say they're well over a billion humanoid robots, >> right? So my take is that is probably 2 to 3x too early. That's the Elon time frame. What a great way to discount Tesla stock though. And when I say discount, I mean underwrite like it's a good thing. Uh, you know, I mean what you basically just said, you just went, you just went to the G20 and you basically just did Adam Jonas, underwrite Tesla 2036 at 1 billion robots. Exponential growth curve. Work it back. Tell the world it 5x is the stock today. It's kind of incredible. Uh Scott here in the chat says, "I'm worried about my child's future who's just starting kindergarten, 15 to 20 years from now." Have no fear. Have no fear. Every single generation of humans has made it. Unless the sun goes out, your children are going to be fine. Children are highly adaptive. Humans are highly adaptive. They're going to be okay. Do not be afraid to have children. Have children. I've got seven of them. I want more. The best thing you could do is is love them, make them good, honest, hardworking people, and they will find their way. Don't worry about technology. >> Wow. Um and the productivity per robot will be probably five times that of a human. Meaning meaning that the productivity in 10 years of humanoid robots and I think this is a conservative estimate by the way. Um this is this is one I I'd be would be willing to to put serious money betting on. um that there will be at least a billion robots in 10 years and that those robots will be at least >> in fairness he is putting his money on it with this exposure via Tesla stock, right? So like all right >> five times the output of a human meaning the the billion humanoid robots will will um be more productive than all humans combined. >> Yeah. Right. Because if if h close because if you've got you know a billion robots five times more productive that's the equivalent of about 5 billion humans uh we have more humans on earth but some of them aren't productive because they're children or they're uh elderly or whatever right so I I see the analogy that he's making. Uh yes in the long term he's right. Humanoids will be more productive at certain things uh than humans especially mechanical things. Absolutely. uh the future. Uh but uh there is a limit to how much productivity ironically that you need at any given point. Like I can only have my floor mopped so much, right? So one of the bounds of even what artificial intelligence can do for a business is how fast is my business growing? Yeah, it could enable me to grow faster, but I still only have x customer inbound emails. You know, if AI makes me more productive at responding to emails, just as a simple example, and I can respond to the hundred emails faster, great. I could go work on growing the business more. But if that grows to 110 emails, I still only have 110 emails to deal with. It's the same thing on a large scale with robotic purposes. If I need to make a million bricks a year or a day, call it for home construction. We might not necessarily need that to be 5 million. It might need to go to 1.1. Right? So there is a curve that sort of limits how productive you could actually be that ultimately leads to massive cost deflation in the near term. So if you create so much productivity you actually lower the cost and so actually what you're doing is creating massive deflation. Now of course expect central bankers in the future to print that all away uh but uh but yeah I mean these ultimately tends to be good for society in the long term. Wow. Um, shifting gears just a little bit to to to a question that's kind of facing the US today. >> Kevin, don't you think Elon's robots will have the same fate as Tesla cars? Uh, that is China wins. 100%. I'm I'm 100% convinced that the the ultimate way to win in the robotics race is to manufacture them in a place like China. China or a place that has competitive edges like that potentially, India, right? That does not mean that Tesla loses. Remember Tesla started the EV revolution in Shanghai, China. So um they will be manufactured most efficiently in in a country like China or India or something like that. Uh but I think that Tesla could actually benefit by manufacturing in those areas. Watch Giga Shanghai end up turning into the Optimus Factory in the long term. It'll happen. data centers have been a big political issue over the over the last um six to eight months here in the United States. And I think there's a general understanding that um in order to to drive and power the the the AI revolution that's coming, we need to have the the electricity um and the data center uh compute capacity um to to do the training and the inference of of all this AI. Um you know, how how do how do you think about this particular issue? um where where are we on the on the curve of of kind of how much we built versus >> Jolts just slightly missed by the way job openings came in at 4.4 versus 4.5. I've got uh job open that's percent job openings themselves numerically 7.271 271 million. Slight miss versus the 7.313 expected. About a two almost that's like 180,000 revision down from the prior read. Quits level came in lower than expected at 1.9% versus the 2% expected. That matters uh because when fewer people are quitting, it's a suggestion that people were worried maybe about the labor market and their prospects for getting a new job. Just small little note there. >> Well, there actually is a quite a crisis of power. So the this this is a in fact this is something if you if you um just if you just sort of follow the AI topic on the Xplatform um which by the way is is where almost all of the AI discourse takes place um you you I think you get a very good sense for where things are headed. Um so that's how that's how I get my news and it's it's incredibly good. everyone who's anyone in AI posts on X. Um, so so so that's why I'd recommend like just just go on the AI AI AI topic on X and you'll you'll understand all these these things and get a a day dayby-day account of things. The the uh and and and what the consensus is at this point is that the there will be a significant power shortfall uh uh next year. So not like distant future. uh there's expected to be I believe I believe the the consensus estimate among analysts that uh follows the AI space very closely is that there will be at least a a 15 gawatt uh shortfall of power uh in 2027 for AI chips. So >> that's next year and there's a big expectation that China is crushing us in terms of power development potentially to the tune of 2xing how much power we are developing which which is pretty remarkable. Uh small little note here just in the Meet Kevin uh wire which you could download uh for free as uh the Meet Kevin app in the Google or Android app store. Look like uh here GoPro shares up 60% after company to be acquired in a $285 million deal. Well, let's keep going with Elon here. >> Um an obvious uh thing that one would expect to occur because the rate at which AI chips is being produced is is uh has been rising incredibly rapidly. they're sort of rising on the order of 40 40 to 50% a year, but the but the power available outside of China has been rising at like 10 to 20% a year. So obviously the the faster rising thing will will eventually overwhelm the slower rising thing. And so um the in fact even I'd say at this point there there there are challenges with power even before next year which is why uh Google and Anthropic and many other companies are actually leasing compute from SpaceX um because we've been able to turn on um AI better than anyone else so far. But this is by by constructing our own power plants is the only way we were able to do it. Um so now now China does have a tremendous amount of electricity >> but but uh due to GPU export bands one cannot uh you know establish data centers with the latest chips in China. So so but so really the consideration is what what sort of electricity growth is there outside of China. Um and that is a currently a significant shortfall relative to AI chip production. So there is this this creates an opportunity I think for countries around the world to to to save to to to sort of if they're interested in AI data centers um to to to construct uh a lot of power um and uh and offer that to uh AI companies um and in exchange of course these AI data centers would be would be taxed and and have to pay you know reasonable fees and stuff >> u but >> well and that's normal like a corporation that exists this inside of a sovereign is going to pay taxes for the earnings of that area. Uh keep in mind data centers have very very few humans in them. Like a data center can operate with like 50 people compared to an automotive plant of a similar square footage. You might have thousands of people or even like the TSMC in Arizona, you get thousands of workers. Data centers are great for temporary jobs, construction jobs, horrible for permanent jobs. So it's one of the political issues that people have with data centers. Obviously if we can create disinflation and artificial intelligence which eventually sort of trickle down economics across the whole economy great but a lot of people you know don't believe in that linkage. >> It does create an opportunity for for a lot of countries. >> Absolutely. Well thank you so much for your time. It meant a lot that you could join us here and uh really appreciate it. >> Any final words? >> You're most welcome. Thank you. >> Thank you. Yeah, I mean that that's really interesting. So if I put together I mean really Elon kind of left them speechless there with his projections. You kind of had a Yeah, I hear hear the person in the background like wow. Oh man. Uh look, I'm a fan of the long-term vision. I think his expectations almost have to be 2 to 3x ludicrous uh in terms of time frame because it sort of motivates the whole race now. So to some extent the timeframe delusionism that Elon Musk creates actually helps foster the very industry to go delusional on electric vehicles brought us to the EV revolution we had which has somewhat started to unwind because of preferences and partly potentially because of Trump and tax credits for EVs. There's also frustration over range anxiety versus man it's just so nice to just fill up your car. Like there's no worse place to get exposed to an electric vehicle in my opinion than renting a car somewhere and somebody's like, "You should have an electric car." And I'm like, "In a foreign country, you expect me to go find chargers?" And wait, let me guess. You want me to top it off before I return the car? You know, uh, and then you sit somewhere for 2 hours to fill it. Like, there's some frustrations with that. But the point is his grandeur around uh this infrastructure sort of led to the EV boom and and now uh you know that that ended up driving a full self-driving revolution. Now it's driving a space revolution uh to some extent a compute revolution with how rapidly we could potentially deploy. So there's there's a lot in his time frames that yeah, he misses, but it's almost almost like you have to be somewhat time frame delusional to eventually be right. So it it is an interesting way to think about Elon Musk as an investor. You sort of have to discount the time frames, but the trajectory is probably accurate and uh it's quite interesting. I liked it. >> Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. >> Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. >> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.