The September Correction JUST STARTED?! (Stocks I'm Buying NOW)

Well, the calendar struck September 1st and all hell broke loose in the stock market. This is after all what everyone's been predicting. Now, in this video, I will share with you whether or not we are about to have a September correction after all. What to do in your portfolio right now. Do you hedge? Do you sell something? Do you buy something right now? And I will share with you the individual stocks that I will be buying if we do have a September correction. Now, on top of that, in case you're living under a rock and you don't know what happened in the markets today, actually, you're probably out there living life. We are nerds, so this is what we do. I will give you a recap of what happened today in the stock market. We will also talk about Palo Alto and Dell, which reported earnings today in after hours, which are actually pretty damn good, both of them. We do have some earnings coming out later this week, tomorrow, as well. Some notable names. We do have some economic data coming out tomorrow morning as well that we will also discuss. So ladies and gentlemen, there's one thing and one thing only that I ask you to do in exchange for today's video. It is to hit the like button for the YouTube algorithm to help push this video out to more people that need to see it. And number two, I know I said there was only one, but there's actually two. I want to know your favorite stocks to buy during a correction. What are your highest conviction like top three to five stocks that you will be buying? Okay, so first things first, before we answer the big question whether or not we are going to have a correction in the month of September, what stocks I'm buying and all of that, I do want to briefly share with you guys what happened today in the markets in case you're unaware, in case you're out there living your life and you have better things to do. It's actually very simple. Yes, there were some Scott Besson comments and people are concerned about the bond market and and yeah, that stuff is going on. There's a yen carry trade that as Japan central bank is heading into their Fed meeting basically on September 18th, there's like an 85% chance the Bank of Japan is going to raise rates. So the whole bond curve in Japan, shortdated, longdated bonds, they've went up in yield. So, there's been this trade for decades where people will borrow in 0%, you know, uh, debt and and and bonds from Japan and then invest that money into US bonds, right? Or into US stocks or whatnot. Well, it's a problem when Japanese bond yields start to go up. It squeezes that trade and there's a lot of leverage in that trade. So, that is one of the reasons why bond yields are going up right now across the curve. But what really happened today was the Iranian conflict. America and Iran are now exchanging what looks like dozens of drone and missile attacks a piece. And this is heading in the wrong direction. Most people thought, okay, we have economic D-Day. We're going to pressure Iran economically. They're going to come to the table. They're going to make a deal. Well, that is simply not happening at this point. and things are escalating militarily. At this current moment, we are waiting to see how Trump and the US military is going to respond following Iran's response to the US military earlier today. So, basically, we're just waiting to see what Trump does, what the US military does at this moment. And you're probably going to hear more as the night goes on. Maybe this is another classic example of escalate to deescalate, but it's the uncertainty, right? We're facing a lot of problems out there. Hardware AI hardware stocks, well, there's a fundamental problem with those, right? The consumer is not great, but it's not recessionary. We have elevated inflation. Oil is elevated because of this conflict that is forcing the Fed to be more hawkish or at least potentially threaten a rate hike. The odds of a rate hike currently sit at about 68% coming on September 16th. So for investors to be watching in real time this Iranian conflict getting worse, oil today was up about 5%. It doesn't give people a strong reason to buy the dip. Now on a separate note, there has been a lot of backlash recently from a political perspective and from different governors like the Texas governor and Pennsylvania governor today. It looks like Pennsylvania could be um putting a moratorum or restriction on data centers here pretty soon. That's starting to happen in different areas of the United States and it's making people question the longevity of the AI trade because earnings growth this year for the S&P is going to be about 25%. If you exclude Nvidia and Micros Micron and that it drops to 16%. If you exclude like your um JP Morgans, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Eaton, and GE Veranova, earnings growth for the S&P excluding really AI hardware and that AI trade is about 12%. So that's still really good, but that's way lower than where we are today. So people are like, "Okay, the trade's alive today, but what's it going to look like six months from now if Democrats win the midterms?" So on top of oil moving higher and literally having a kinetic war with Iran, there's also this concern about the longevity of the AI trade because politics are starting to flip on data centers. So that's like an underlying problem out there beyond just the Fed, oil, and any near-term problems that we have. And then not to mention to top all of that off, you have the Japanese yen carry trade that is slowly blowing up in front of us. So, putting all of that together, are we going to have a correction in the month of September? And the answer to that is nobody knows. But I can pretty confidently tell you if the war with Iran does not end, probably. I don't think we're going to have any other news that is going to offset in a positive way the negative we're dealing with, right? Scott Besson intervening in the bond market. Like that's not going to save the day, right? Maybe the Bank of Japan on September 18th not raising rates is good, but our Fed meeting is on September 16th. If the war with Iran does not end, oil is going to stay high, right? There there's going to be no repricing of Fed funds futures expectations for that September 16th Fed meeting. And for the past 45 years, the Fed has always done what the markets are pricing in. So even then, if we are pricing in a rate hike September 16th and then the Fed's like, "Oh yeah, we're not going to do a rate hike." Well, I don't know if that's good either because the markets are pretty dependent on knowing what the Fed is going to do, right? We price these things in. Maybe initially if we're pricing in a rate hike and don't get one, it would be seen as positive. People are going to say, "Oh my gosh, we can't position for the Fed anymore." Like there's not a very good outcome here unless the war with Iran ends or there's some kind of ceasefire or some kind of positive development. And maybe that's why Trump is escalating this conflict at this point to deescalate it before September 16th. That's the bad news. If the war with Iran does not end or there's no ceasefire in about the next week, you're going to find yourself in a correction pretty quickly. Again, that's not a guarantee. We do have economic data coming out here in the next couple of days. We do have CPI coming out next week. And these things will be important as well, but I don't think they're going to be so good or so bad to move the odds of Fed hikes enough. Right? If we're pricing in a 68% chance of a Fed hike right now, I don't think the jobs report is going to be so bad that we cancel that hike. For your day tomorrow, you are going to have some economic data that could move the markets. You have ADP employment change. you're expecting about 51,000 pay uh jobs to be added. This is the private payroll number. It doesn't mean a whole lot really, but if it's a weak number, the markets might like that. Maybe it's a sign that the jobs report on Friday is going to be weak. You don't want to read into it all too much. So, you are going to get that tomorrow, but that's basically it. You do have the Fed Beige Book as well at 2 p.m. It's basically like a a rundown of how the Fed is viewing economic activity, inflation, all kinds of things in their Fed district. So, it's like the 12 Fed districts all come out with their own report. It does not tend to move the markets all too much though. On Thursday, you have challenger job cuts, Fed Waller gives a speech, exports and imports and the balance of trade. You have ISM services PMIs as well. prices paid are going to be really important there because services are about 80% of uh the US economy. And then on Friday, again, you have non-farm payrolls. You're expecting about 42,000. I think the only way we don't get a rate hike, assuming the war with Iran does not end. If the war with Iran ends, you're not going to get a rate hike. Oil's going to plummet. The odds are going to plummet that the Fed hikes rates, right? But outside of that, you need one of two things to happen. you need a a negative jobs report on Friday, which the estimate is 42,000. Last month was negative -23,000. It is very possible we do get a negative jobs report, but you also need a CPI report that is lower than expected. If you get a negative jobs report, but a CPI report that's in line or higher than expected, you're probably still going to be looking at a rate hike. So, it's really hard to tell what's going to happen with the economic data, but there are some people that are calling for a negative payroll report on Friday. And then you also get the unemployment rate, which again, you want that sucker at like 4.3 4.4%. As bad as possible. Now before we get into what I am doing in my portfolio right now in the markets and before we get into my favorite stocks that I will be buying the dip in um if we do get a correction let's look at some of these earnings. So today and after hours you had Dell, Palo Alto, MongoDB and GitLab. Tomorrow you have Broadcom, Huelet Packard Enterprise or HPE, Snowflake, NetApp and Five Below in after hours. Broadcom's like a almost $3 trillion company. So that's going to potentially move the markets quite a bit. And then Thursday and after hours, you have UiPath Amberella Docyign Zcaler Lulu, Samsara, and Asana. So you do still have some earnings that could move the markets. Now, you did have some pretty damn good earnings from Dell. Not a surprise there. EPS came in at $74. The estimate was $4.92. Revenue of 46.9 billion. The estimate 44.5 billion. Yeah, that's a $2 billion beat. Great, but it's not that impressive. Like, I don't know. Maybe we're just all jaded because, you know, the microns of the world that'll come out and beat by like10 billion dollars. But, uh, yeah, it's a beat. I'm not impressed, but I I also don't like hardware, so uh, take that as you will. Palo Alto EPS came in at a$12. The, uh, estimate was 98 cents. revenue at 3.41 billion, estimate 3.35 billion. So that was a beat as well. You also had MongoDB that reported a a blowout quarter revenue 772 million versus the estimate of 732 million. Uh pretty impressive. Okay, now what am I doing in my portfolio? Nothing. I am resisting the urge to do anything. When in doubt, do nothing. This is kind of my motto. When I don't have anything to do, I don't do anything. I don't try to manufacture something that is not there. Now, there are things to do. There are opportunities out there. But with everything going on right now, I'm holding tight. I am sitting on the positions that I have, the stocks that I like. We are up 97.67% year to date in the trading community. If we were a hedge fund, we would be the best performing hedge fund year to date by a mile. There's nobody even close. What am I doing? I'm doing nothing. Okay, I'm not taking egregious profits, you know, and I'll explain that in just a moment. I have taken a profit, but it's not like I'm rushing out to sell anything. I'm not even hedging my portfolio right now. And I know some of you guys are going to be like, "Oh my gosh, why would you not hedge that?" because I have conviction in the stocks that I own. See, in the trading community, the portfolio that you're looking at right now, I like to take large, high conviction investments for the next 1 to three years. I'm trying to find asymmetrical opportunities and dislocations in the market. Now, I did recently sell a stock. I The stock I sold is called ELF. You guys may or may not have heard about it. I bought that in the 40s and 50s. I thought there was an asymmetrical opportunity. Well, now that the stock's over $100, in the last three months, you've went from 40 to 100. I don't think there's as much of an asymmetrical opportunity. The PEG ratio was sitting at 2.5. The stocks I'm buying right now are five times cheaper than ELF. They have PEG ratios of 0.5. So, I can't in good conscious conscience sit on, you know, $100,000 profit or whatever it was across the portfolios. Well, it's five times more expensive than some of the other stocks that I'm currently buying or that I plan to buy during a correction. Now, if you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode, let me tell you the stocks that I will be looking to buy if the markets do go through a correction in September. I think Tesla is an easy one at 350. If we wake up a month from now and it's 250, I think that's easy money. So that's right there. But another one is Apploven. Apploven has a PEG ratio of 0.5. The stock is dramatically undervalued. Not a little bit, like dramatically undervalued. Fair value on this thing is well over 500. It's $311. It trades with a 15x PE multiple with 54% year-over-year earnings growth or revenue growth, right? Earnings growth was like 80%. It is dirt dog cheap. You can't pay people to own this one. I'm going to buy that emotional fear because that's what it is. Emotional fear every single time. App is a stock that is deserving of capital. Okay. Another stock that I like um is Zebra. Mo, most of you guys don't know what the stock is. You probably never heard about it. This is the company that's actually going to bring AI to the real world to healthcare, u logistics, retail, you know, their handheld devices, which they are the dominant market leader in already, are basically high performance computing nodes at your hand. You're going to have to look into it for yourselves. I'm not a this is not a recommendation. I'm not a financial adviser. But Zebra is trading at 18 times forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 0.6. I mean, this is going to be the company that bridges AI into the real economy. This stock will be rerated. Okay? Wall Street will realize that this is an AI company. They figured it out a little bit on last earnings. They were a blowout. Stock went up. But if we get a correction, stocks back in the 250s. Oh yeah, what an opportunity and a blessing. That would be another stock that I would be buying if we do go through a correction. If we do get some downside here, Rubric. Rubric very strong AI uh cyber security company. Without getting into the whole spiel here to save you some time, in the 70s, this thing is very attractive. in the 60s or 50s. It's easy money in my opinion. Again, I'm long this thing. Not a recommendation. Another stock that I would really love to own if we do go through a correction is Reddit. I don't own this stock. Full transparency. I may or may not own any of these stocks. You know, we'll see. Reddit, if it does go through a correction, it's kind of at a pretty important level here. Gets very interesting as well to me. And then there's the obvious ones like Zeta Global. I've been bullish on Zeta Global for a long time. I've made videos on the channel about it. It is a $31 stock today. $3155. The stock is literally went vertical. If it came back down to like the low 20s, potentially I would be a buyer again, but I I was buying the stock in the $16 to $18 range. So, I'm a little content with that one for now. But if you don't own Zeta and you wanted to, if we get a correction, that I think would also be an opportunity. Now, this one's going to throw a lot of you guys off, but Royal Caribbean, if we get a correction and the war continues and oil goes even higher in the 230s, Royal Caribbean, easy buy. Okay, the stock is dirt cheap. It pays you $6 per share per year for a dividend. So, it pays you over 2% right now. It's an easy compounder that I think will outperform the S&P for many years to come. Another stock that I like if we continue to have a correction or do have a correction here is Uber. $75 a share. If we can get that thing down into the low 60s or even hell the 50s, what an opportunity that would be. Now, my gut tells me we're not going to have a correction. I do think this is probably escalation to deescalate it, you know, to end the the Iran conflict. The NASDAQ sitting right now at its 100 day moving average. If you don't find support here, it's going to get a lot worse. So, let me just tell you, if you don't find support at the 100 day moving average, you're going to fall from here another 7.4%. Yeah. So, that would be a peak to trough decline on the NASDAQ of about 12 and a half% or so. So, we're actually at a very important moment right now. But again, I think it is highly uh dislikable to have oil moving higher heading into a midterm to get a rate hike before the midterms. I just I I don't see that as likely in the cards. I don't know what happens over the next week or two, but I think there's about a week from now where you can afford to not negotiate or bomb each other or whatever, but I think in about a week once you're pushing like September 9th, 10th around there, it's like, okay, we should try to get oil lower and avoid a Fed rate hike. So again, I would just cap this off with I am cautiously optimistic for the next 4 to 8 weeks. Now, I'm very bullish after the midterms and I think things are going to shape up to be really good. I'm bullish on robotics automation AI software cyber security. Those are kind of the main that's the main thesis right now. But I also like plays on the consumer being stronger. If we do get rate hikes and inflation does come down, I think there is upside to the companies that adopt AI into the real economy. These are your average companies like cyclicals, nonAI industrials, nonAI financials, healthcare, you know, I'm also bullish on those areas. I think there's different levels to this, right? Robotics automation AI software and cyber security. These stocks could double or triple in the next 12 months or more. Is a Royal Caribbean going to double or triple? No. But you're also, you'd expect, not going to lose a lot of money either, even if things do go poorly, right? I think it's a 20, 30, 40% gainer for the next couple of years. It's really good, really good numbers, but not triples or 5xers or things like that. There's a place for all of these different groups in a portfolio right now. Um, so yeah, that's that's kind of the way that I'm thinking about things right now. We will see what happens. This could all change with one headline from Trump, better or worse. Things don't sound great today, but you've seen a trend of escalate to deescalate, right? The art of the deal. You Trump wants to get the best deal possible with Iran. And um I do think this will be cleared up one way, shape, or form, correction, crash or not, by the midterms. I don't know, maybe that's a crazy take. Let me know your thoughts on all of this down below in the comment section. Hit the like button as well as subscribe to the channel if you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us. That link is down below in the description or the pinned comment of this video as well. Have a great rest of your day and I will see you in the next