Define a "Successful" Red Day…

What's up everyone? All right, in today's episode I'm going to break down my trades from the morning. Now yesterday I did a recap where I talked about a shift that's occurring in the market in small caps specifically where we were very hot in June, July, and the beginning of August. And then we started seeing these tremors of a few stocks putting in huge rejections. And then the last two weeks of August, things really cooled off quite a bit. Well, the beginning of September here uh is no different. It's day it's continued to be co cold. Now um it's important to take a look at the overall market because we're not in a bare market as far as the S&P 500 is concerned. Not even close. Now the market is down a little bit off the highs but not a lot. USO United States oil fund oil prices are going up. So you know we do have a little bit of a dynamic there with you know obviously the global events and affecting oil prices and that does have a trickle down effect on a lot of small cap companies. um no doubt who are um have some exposure to you know shipping costs and this and that but um I would say that the cold stretch that we're experiencing right now in small caps is really more related to the fact that we've had a lack of good quality catalysts and we had a period in August where we had a lot of stocks that were making big moves with no news at all. no catalyst. And so, you know, obviously that only lasts for so long before shorts start getting aggressive and shorting earlier and earlier and earlier and then bringing these stocks back down. And we've gotten to the point now where, you know, we've seen stocks that uh hardly pop up at all before already shorts are stepping in. So, today our leading gapper is SGLD, which is a gold Canadian gold company. Um, had a big pop after hours and then has come back down. So, no trades on that. It also has a higher float. The second leading gapper is LH AI. It's a real estate company. But hold on, they're getting into AI computing as a subsidiary. Brilliant. Smart move in this market. I guess AI is, you know, the hot thing. And it's up 52% today, but it's very thickly traded. So, it's a slower mover. It's a higher percentage gain because it's a lower price stock, but really there was nothing here to trade. So, I didn't trade that at all. Then we have PBBT up 42% on 35 million shares of volume. We have VIVK up on 40 million shares of volume. And so the the theme today was lower price stocks. And none of them have really been able to pull away in a big way. Now, by the way, for yesterday's recap, I don't think I explicitly said it, but yesterday was a no trade day. I realized at the end of the recap that I hadn't shown my P&L, which was that it was a no trade day. Today is a red day. Uh, but I'm not in a bad mood particularly uh because today is what I would call a successful red day. I took a couple trades on PBBT. I felt like it was starting to pull away. It did pull away. I added back for the break of three and I went from green on it back to red. And it is what it is. You know, I stepped up to the plate on it because finally we had a stock that was moving quickly at that time. It was our leading gainer and that was on this break right here of the pre-market high. So, it had this earlier pop and then pulled back. No trades there, but as it curled up here and broke through 333, I had that line drawn, which was the high of this level here from uh a little bit earlier. And then I was looking for the break through um 246. And we got both of those breaks. And so that's when I was like, "Okay, this stock is now going through the high and it's not double topping." Because we've had a lot of moves where the stock pops up, it pulls back, it double tops, and then rolls over. This actually broke through the high and went all the way up to three. And boy, I thought it was going to break three, and we were going to get a move on this up towards 325 and 350. Now, on the daily chart, PBT, well, let's step back one second. So, PBT, PBT is a biotech stock. They put out news earlier today and you know the news is I honestly didn't think that great. It's um US patent allowance strengthens protections for um this drug. There was um what was it? Another stock that had news earlier which arguably seemed a lot stronger. Uh now well CAF, we'll talk about that one in a second. Um, and now I can't remember which one it was, but in any case, um, you know, we had one that did seem like arguably better news and it really didn't do well at all. Uh, JH or JL JHL, Chinese company, no news. Um, CF this one. Um, oh, this was it. So, um, they had phase three clinical trial results that are, uh, that they put out and it, this stock pops up and then an hour later they're putting out news of a secondary offering. It's unbelievable. I mean, this stock just it's such a dog. Every time it pops up, and I love dogs, but as a stock, uh, no, you wouldn't expect a a dog to be a good publicly traded company. Uh, they don't live that long. That's a problem. So anyways, you get all these red candles that keeps dropping and dropping. I mean, this company does this. Everybody knows it does it. So I didn't trust that for a second. I saw the good news out. Um, but I then I also pulled up CF and I said, "Wait a second. When was the last shelf registration? It was 3 days ago. And who's the underwriter?" So we check the under underwriter. It's HC Wayright. And I see all that and I'm like, "Nope, not touching that." So I didn't touch that. But PBT, uh, this one I checked. They do have a shelf registration as many of these companies do, but theirs was from May. I felt like um you know that was fine. No big big risk here. Uh in anyways, so we got this really nice squeeze, but it was just not able to hold. So I traded through this range here, and I did turn a profit on it of about $10,000 into a loss of 5,000. I sized up kind of heavily as it was pulling away. I really I was like, "Here we go. We finally got something to work with." I'm sort of, you know, taking that approach of um you know, just sitting waiting and then when I see something striking, but this one, you know, it's a swing and a miss. So, I could have just taken the little base hit and been done, but I kind of pushed it and tried to take that second trade for the break over three. And as you can see, we hit $3, we rejected, and that was it. But you know what? Like I said, this is a successful red day because that was it. I stopped. I didn't spiral. I didn't go for trade two, three, four, five, and end up finding myself down, you know, 15, 20, 30, 40, 50, 75, 100, $150,000. I had a couple really big red days in August. And one of the things I said yesterday was that if I had capped each of those red days at a more moderate loss of, you know, 15 or 20 grand, the month would have been 50% better. I would have made 50% more money. if I had just stopped sooner on my red days. So, this is me stopping sooner on a red day. I'm down five grand and I can recover that easily with a good trade tomorrow. One decent trade tomorrow. You know, my my good days this year have been in the range of $20,000. Well, my average daily gain has been 20,000. So, I suppose we could actually look more closely at what my um average green days have been because that's a different statistic. My average day factors in the winners and the losers, whereas the average green day, of course, is um just going to factor in the average of the green days. And then we can look at the average red days. So, let's pull that up really quickly here. I'm just going to pull up my Trader view metrics on the side and then I'll put it on screen share. So, I'm also doing my recap a little bit earlier today because I don't want to keep looking at charts. I don't want to get FOMO that, oh no, you know, two seconds after stopping out, you know, BIAF runs and son of a gun, uh, maybe I should, you know, look, honestly, I look at this right now, there's a part of me that's tempted to jump in at 8 for the breakthrough at yesterday's pivot there and the high and catch a nice squeeze up towards nine. Because in the moment, you see it and you're like, "Oh, I've seen these work well before and boy, I could use a $5,000 winner right now. that sure would be nice. And then next thing you know, you've talked yourself into taking a trade that's well, probably wasn't a good idea. And then all of a sudden, you've doubled your loss. You know, you've gone from red whatever to to, you know, 5,000 to 10,000 or more. So, all right. So, these are my metrics here for the year. Uh, this is for my just my Roth I Oh, no, that's not it. Um, we're going to do, let's see, this year year to date. There it is. That was last year. So yeah, this year, you know, um I've made about a third as much as I made last year. But don't worry, we still got um you know, four months ahead of us. So should be able to push that up towards, you know, 3 3.5, maybe higher. We'll see. And it'll still be lower than last year, but last year was an exceptional year. So anyway, so Oh. Oh, detailed. So average green day is 15,000. Okay, so I'm at 15,000 average green day right now. And um the average average day average green day is 21,000. Average red day is 21,000. Isn't that so interesting? They're almost exactly the same. So you might think, well, gez, how are you even green on the year? Your green days and your red days are the same. It's because I've had a total of 120 winning days and only 20 losing days. That's how. Now, if we look at last year, just as a point of comparison, um last year I had only 15 losing days and 220 winning days. Uh winning days were $31,000 average, but the losing days were also about 28 grand. So, they're they're fairly similar. All right. So, you know, I guess this is kind of that's this is who I am. Uh you know, winners and losers days end up being about the same. I didn't even really haven't been looking at that. So it's just that is what it is. Uh but last month as we know was not as great in that department. Um with the losing days just for last month uh 26,000 for the winners and 38,000 for the losers for the average. So that was not good. So let's see if I can turn that around for this month. And I'm going to try to lead by example and show you guys what it looks like to have successful red days and not overstay your welcome. Now I I I'm I'm saying that and I and it's hard. It really is hard. Uh there are some days where it's very difficult to walk away. Uh but today for whatever reason uh feels easier and maybe because this loss is so much tolerable uh than some of the others I've recently had. So this is where I finished the day, but I'll be back at it first thing tomorrow morning. And let me remind you for those of you guys who are new at Warrior Trading right now, we are running our Labor Day sales. So, if you haven't already checked them out, you can join the Warrior Starter or our Warrior Pro membership. Take advantage of the Labor Day sale coupon codes and then you can be in the community and see what it's like to actually be trading in the markets every single day. You'll see the good, you'll see the bad. I put it all on the table. So, thank you guys for tuning in. Reminder as always, trading is risky. My results aren't typical, and there is no guarantee you'll find success whether you trade with me or you learn on your own. So, your best bet is to always practice in the simulator before putting real money on the line. With that, I'll see you bright and early tomorrow at 7