This Breaking News Just Pumped The Stock Market, You Need To See This...

All right, what's up everybody and welcome back to another Thursday here in the stock market. Well, we're off to a pretty solid start to the day with the vast majority of the S&P 500 in the green being led up by some of the largest companies in the world. I mean, we got Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Walmart, and many more all putting in gains of anywhere from 3 to 7%. And this sort of green is actually translating to some of the other indices as well. We have the Dow Jones mostly in the green. We have the NASDAQ mostly in the green. Look at the Russell 2000. Russell 2000 coming in real strong. Couple, you know, a couple laggers in the healthc care department and consumer defensive maybe, but all in all, a very strong start to the day and my own personal public portfolio is looking decently as well. Currently up about roughly $5,800 today, putting in a total gain of 1.2%. Now, the majority of that is being of course brought by the S&P 500, but we are seeing some decent performance from Robin Hood today. This thing is doing really good. currently up 15% on the day at $123. A $1,400 gain in our pos in our portfolio position that was only roughly an $8,000 investment. So, we're up about $2,900 on this Robin Hood play. Feels really dang on good to see Robin Hood running. So, as I mentioned before, we are off to a great start today. And I wanted to make today's video to break down why. Because although I've seen a lot on Twitter and YouTube, a lot of people saying like this is a random pump. It's not backed by anything. It hasn't been caused by anything. And that's kind of like being said in a way to try to like discredit this pump. I do think the reason why the market's in the green today is actually very very obvious and all of the data and the metrics support that statement. Okay. So, what we're going to talk about today is why the market is in the green, what this can mean for the market moving forward and what you need to be on the lookout for as a result of this thing that caused it and exactly what I'm doing in my own portfolio and in some of these individual positions as a result of what caused this pump. So, we have a good bit to get into today and I don't want to keep it too long on a Thursday, folks. So, let's go ahead and let's jump straight on in. So, the news that I personally believe caused this pump in the market today um comes from the Federal Reserve. So, what we can see here is that earlier today, Governor Christopher J. Waller went out and said this. He said, "To set the stage before we talk, let me give you a sense of my thinking as of today about the economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy. The short version is that, and this is where it gets important, while inflation remains meaningfully above the FOMC's 2% goal, recent data suggests we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation. If this continues in the data due over the next two weeks, I would be inclined to support holding the target for the federal funds rate at its current setting. So, we have one of the members of the FOMC, the Federal Open Market Committee, coming out and saying, "Look, maybe this whole inflation thing is going to take care of itself. We're going to see it pull back a bit. We won't as the Fed need to hike rates. And we can see the economy move in the right direction without us needing to get super involved. And the reason why I believe that this is the reason as to why the market pumped is because you need to look at the impact that it had on some of the other impactful aspects of the market like bond yields. The second that this came out, bond yields immediately started to pull back. Now, it hasn't been some sort of crazy dramatic pullback, but it's absolutely a pullback. Look at what we're seeing on 10-year. Look at what we're seeing on 20-year. Look at what we're seeing on 30-year. And not only did we see bond yields pulling back, but we also saw the saw the odds of the Federal Reserve actually hiking interest rates in September collapse from 66% to at one point earlier this morning 49% before currently settling at 52%. And so what this means is that when the market heard this news, it goes, "Oh, wait. this big thing that we've been worried about, this big terrible situation that we're in in which inflation expectations are so high that the Federal Reserve might have to hike interest rates even as soon as the next meeting and bond yields are so high that the government's going to really have to try to get involved because that's bad for everyone. This whole big narrative that we've been worried about it it could kind of just solve itself, which didn't really seem like an option just last week. You see, last week, um, Kevin Walsh comes out and he's saying, listen, like essentially he said, if inflation data doesn't get better, we're going to have to hike interest rates. That's essentially what he said. And again, again, I know that's not verbatim. That's essentially what he said, right? Anyone who was listening knows that. And the market goes, well, the only way for this to happen, I guess, is that if the Iran conflict, either the Iran conflict ends or the Federal Reserve is going to hike interest rates. That seemed to be the only two outcomes that the market was pricing in for. And this was a part of the reason as to why we've seen a bit of strain on the market. You know, we go look at the S&P 500 and we see how it's performed over the last few weeks. And it's not been terrible, don't get me wrong, but especially since Friday of last week, it has been pulling back. Basically, Friday was the peak. It peaked on Friday. And after that speech by Kevin Worsh, it started to pull back because it was pricing in this idea that the only way forward for the US economy and for the stock market was either the Iran conflict to end or the Federal Reserve to start hiking interest rates. Well, when you turn around today and you have, you know, Governor Christopher J. Waller coming out and saying, "Look, we're starting to see some signs of disinflation and I would be willing to support the idea of maintaining rates." The market believed it and the market took that narrative and went, "Okay, great." And people just started going risk on. We saw people buying up bond yields, right? Because they're like, "Oh, snap. Well, if inflation is going to potentially start pulling back, these rates may start to pull back at some point soon." So, people are buying bond yields, which mechanically drops the rates themselves. And we of course did see people start to assume or the market at least assume that interest rate hikes are not coming in September a little bit less at least. There is still a heavier chance that they do happen compared to if they don't. But that was a massive fall from 66% to a 1.49%. And that's the reason as to why I believe that the stock market is pumping right now because the market is factoring in this idea that maybe inflation and bond yields and interest rates this whole problem that we've had could actually end up solving itself. and all of the economic constraint and pressure and you know yeah just downward pressure that the market was pricing in is expecting maybe it's not going to happen and look I know there are some individual ones that are pulling back a bit right we have like Broadcom down a bit right now or like Micron but I mean think about it right Broadcom just had earnings that's why they're down the vast majority of the market is responding extremely positively to this news because it believes that this could help solve the bond yield problem solve the interest rate hike potential hight potential interest rate hike problem and obviously feels great about that now is that what this means, right? Does just because one person, one person a part of the FOMC said that they would potentially be in support of not hiking interest rates, does that mean that we should just stop caring about bond yields? No. Does that mean that they are not going to hike interest rates? No. Because at the end of the day, look at it. Bond yields, although they are down right now, are still very elevated from a more macro perspective. You look at the last 3 months, I mean, we are still sitting very close to those highs. You look at the 30 years, same thing. You look at the 10-year, very much so the same thing. We're still quite elevated than we've ever been before, excluding the last few days. And so this news today in no way says like, oh, we we've made it. We're past it. We're good. We're out of the woods, right? That we've made it out of the tunnel. And you can also see that same sort of thing whenever you just actually look at um the odds of an interest rate hike. I mean, although he did come out and say that and kind of ease the market a little bit today, the market is still factoring in this thought that there is still a higher percentage chance that a hike does happen than doesn't. So, in no way are we out of the woods, but because there is the potential that this is going to go better than Wall Street expected. Wall Street is willing to pay a bit more of a premium and they're pricing that in. So, the reason why the market's up today is because the market is pricing in this idea that it's not going to be as bad as potentially the market thought. The market thought this was a lose-lose. either interest rates are going to hike or this Iran conflict, something bad was going to happen for that to have to come towards an end. Well, maybe there's a potential win here and that is that we we do just see inflation start coming back down in some capacity. So, all in all, I don't want anyone to take, you know, kind of what we're talking about in today's video and this news that we've seen today and run with it and start going all in and buying as much as humanly possible in their stock portfolios because listen, even he says himself right here um that it's not locked in, right? He goes on to say a little bit further, but there continues to be considerable uncertainty about how military conflicts, trade policy, and artificial intelligence will affect prices and economic activity. If the incoming data for August shows this improvement has been fleeting, then it may be appropriate to raise the policy rate when the FOMC meeting on September and 15th um on the FOMC meeting September 15th and September and 16th. So, he's even saying himself like this isn't locked in. This isn't set in stone. This is just a potential outcome. This is a there's a chance that this goes better than we all expected. And so again, the market's pricing that in. So that's why you're getting a bit of a pump today because again, I saw so many people who were saying this is backed by nothing. This is fake volume. The market's just kind of making a move. This is a micro short squeeze that won't last long. I'm like, I don't think so. I think the fact that we're seeing bond yields pulling back, the odds of an interest rate hike falling and the market pumping at the same exact time is very clear that this was the catalyst for the day. Now, Robin Hood was a little bit of a different story. Um, the reason why Robin Hood specifically is pumping, which is obviously a part of my uh public portfolio, is because their chain, Robin Hood chain on the crypto side of things, has been absolutely exploding. And they got a huge um analyst estimate of like $150. I believe it was from Morgan Stanley. I need to go double check, but they've been getting their price target raised and their Robin Hood chain has done fantastic in terms of revenue generation. And people are pricing in more. And that's why I was holding. you know, whenever Robin Hood started to pull back, many people were asking, you know, like, is this a good time to exit? It still elevated off my entry price. I was like, no, man. Like, I'm holding this Robin Hood position because I think when the whole crypto thing has its real impact, Robin Hood can easily push to its all-time higher higher. And so, the fact that we're now sitting on a 35% gain on Robin Hood, which is a $2,800 gain on just an $8,000 investment. I mean, it feels pretty damn good, and I'm pumped to see what's going on for Robin Hood here. But all in all, nonetheless, whenever we go back to the broader market, this is definitely very important. And I think that it makes what we see tomorrow even more important because think about it. [snorts] Tomorrow we're going to get jobs data. The jobs data is going to give us an understanding of where the job the labor market is. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate. We all know this to bring down unemployment and to bring down inflation. And the jobs data tomorrow absolutely can tell us like, okay, is there even an option for an interest rate hike? Because let's say the jobs data comes in terrible tomorrow. Realistically, I don't think the Fed can go in and hike interest rates if the if the labor market's really struggling, which would be a bit of a surprise. It's not really predicted to be, but if it is really struggling hypothetically, I can't see a world in which the Federal Reserve is comfortable with all of the uncertainty with economic D-Day and this Iran situation, knowing that a lot of the inflation problem is because of those things. I don't know how they could be comfortable going in and hiking interest rates. I think that's just going to make a bad situation worse, right? But if if we see the labor market coming in really strong tomorrow, there is a world in which they go "Well yeah, we have the room needed. We have the room necessary to go in and hike these interest rates." And so, even though there is uncertainty, we're going to do it anyway. So, we're going to really want to pay attention to what happens tomorrow. And I do believe that the jobs report tomorrow is going to be what tips the scales now that we're back at a 50/50. A really bad labor market reading could pull this odds down to like 30 40s. a good labor market could push us into the 60s again. And I think that's going to be the set in stone number. I think whatever the odds are as a result of tomorrow as we head into next week especially, that's going to be what the market ends up running with into that FOMC meeting that does take place in about 13 days on the 15th and the 16th with the 16th is of course when they actually make their decision. So, it's going to be important that we watch it closely. I of course will be doing a live stream tomorrow as we do get the jobs data and kind of walking you through what all it means and if it's good or if it's bad and what sort of impact it should have on the market. But that is why I do personally believe the market is up today and I actually do think that it is really justifiably good news for the potential of the macroeconomic outlook or macroeconomic landscape. Now when it comes to my own personal portfolio, I'm keeping it very simple. I'm just dollar cost averaging if I get opportunities to. But realistically, I don't even need to do anything right now. Look, the market's rallying right now based off of something that is somewhat speculative still. So I'm not going to join in. I'm not going to just start buying into the excitement and buying into the hype. I'm just going to kind of let it play out. The only purchase that I did do recently was of Google. Um, you guys know I bought a bit of Google. I think it was yesterday if I remember correctly. I could go double check. It would have been this one. Let's see. I bought some Google at $331. I bought like $230 worth of it just to increase this position by 10%. It's currently sitting at $338. So, I'm sitting slightly positive on that purchase. But all in all, the Hyperscaler portfolio is doing decent today. Up about 1% on the day. Still looking pretty decent all time. all time. It's currently sitting up about roughly 13.78% and holding up some of those gains pretty well. So, yeah, all in all, not doing really anything super crazy. Just gonna kind of enjoy this moment, watch the market pump, enjoy the green, and see how the jobs report comes out tomorrow before I make any decisions. So, I'll keep you updated on it as it does play out. Hey guys, I do want to remind you before we do jump off of today's video, there are two things down there for you. And nine days from now on September 12th, I am going to be hosting a technical analysis boot camp. It's going to be two to three hours. It's going to be completely free. Any of you can join. We're going to talk about what TA is, candles, structures, resistance support patterns indicators, and much more. I'll be answering questions, and hopefully you will leave this boot camp feeling very good about your basic understanding of technical analysis. So, if that's something that's interesting to you, the seats are filling up very fast. So, make sure to head to the link down below, type in your full name, type in your email, press claim my free seat. While we are also talking about free things, I will also remind you all that I do personally have an affiliate link down below to Liquid. This is the platform that I do all of my trading on. And if you use my link down below to go sign up for Liquid, we are going to be picking six people this month who sign up to Liquid, deposit funds, and open one trade. They don't even have to keep the trade open. You just open one trade, you're going to be entered into a giveaway where we're going to be giving $50 worth of stock away or cash away to any of you who sign up, deposit, and open one trade. So, don't miss out on that. This is the platform where I do all of my personal trading. You guys have seen, you know, I've gone in and done a pretty decent amount of trades. Um, you know, couple like couple hundred dollar trades on this platform, a lot, especially over the last few months. So, if that's something that's interesting to you, that's also free for you. Feel free to go check it out down below. So, got a couple things down there for you to check out. Um, and yeah, I think that's all I got for you guys today. So, it'll be important to pay attention to the jobs data tomorrow. I will be live for it. So, stay tuned for that. And I'll see you all in the next one. Peace out everybody.