5 AÇÕES QUE ESTOU DE OLHO PARA SETEMBRO!

Let's go, everyone. September could be that decisive month for the Brazilian stock market, and depending on what happens with interest rates, the fiscal landscape, and especially the perception of risk in Brazil, some stocks may have much more room to rise than others. And today I want to show you exactly that. Five stocks that could appreciate in September, the month we are in right now, okay? And the most interesting thing is that we aren't talking about five companies that depend on exactly the same thing. We will have in this video steel and industrial companies, a giant in the energy sector, one of the biggest oil and dividend-paying companies on the exchange, and a construction company off the radar. I’m not talking about Melnic or Mitre, in case you were thinking that, okay? It's a construction company that many people aren't even looking at, which could benefit greatly from a potential drop in interest rates. And I will also show you a sanitation company that has gone through a major transformation. In other words, mind you, these are five totally different theses, but there is a common point between them. They all have some trigger that could cause the market to reevaluate these companies. I will explain exactly what needs to happen for each of them to appreciate. It is obvious that my view is not an investment recommendation, okay? So stay until the end because the fifth stock might be exactly one of the most interesting to follow if interest rates start to fall. Take the opportunity to smash that like button and subscribe to the channel. Without further ado, let's get on with the video. Let's start with Gerdau, GGBR4. And perhaps many people look at Gerdau and simply think it is just a steel company, but the thesis is a bit more interesting than that. Why? Gerdau, if you didn't know, has a highly diversified operation and exposure to different markets. This is interesting because we are talking about a company that does not rely exclusively on the Brazilian economy, okay? A relevant part of the operation is linked to the exterior. So, there is a kind of geographical diversification here that can help the company in different scenarios, but there is another factor that could greatly favor Gerdau. And what factor is that, Rebeca ? The factor is nothing more than the dollar. Why? If the real remains under pressure, many companies that have international revenues and operations, as is the case with Gerdau, can have a greater natural hedge than companies totally dependent on the domestic market. So here comes an important characteristic of Gerdau. It is in a cyclical sector. If we look at Gerdau's stock price today and what is said about this cyclical sector, follow along with me, okay? Cyclicality is directly linked to these fluctuations in the company's own stock price, which means that steel prices, industrial demand, and the company's margins make a big difference. So, as the industrial cycle improves, companies like Gerdau can show a very significant recovery in their results. Got it? So, we have three points to monitor regarding Gerdau. Look, the steel cycle, okay? Industrial demand and the exchange rate . These are the three situations we need to watch with Gerdau. And you might say: "Beca, but it has already appreciated a lot, right? It was at just over R $ 20, a 16%gain." But for me, if these points also improve, Gerdau can appreciate much more. So, after certain periods of pessimism we've had with cyclical companies, and Gerdau was in that group, an improvement in expectations can indeed trigger a very quick repricing of the shares. I'm not necessarily saying here that Gerdau will go up; we don't have a crystal ball. However, if the market starts to believe that the worst of the cycle is behind us, the price might start to anticipate a nice recovery here for GGBR, okay? That's why it's on this list, not because it's a risk-free stock—because there is no such thing as a risk-free stock; quite the opposite, it's a cyclical stock, and cyclical stocks have a lot of ups and downs, okay? But cyclical stocks can also give us good appreciation, and we can make money from the market, okay? So that is precisely why it can present good symmetry if the scenario for industry and commodities improves. If we take an average projection for Gerdau, look, the average is an appreciation of 7.10%, where the price could reach R $ 27.21, from the current R $ 25.41. Got it? And look, the general consensus of analysts is a buy, okay? And the high target price, according to them, is that Gerdau, with improving expectations, could reach R $ 34. Everything okay, guys? Now look, regarding Graham, the potential, we have potential, right? It's not because it's above the ceiling price. Just because we don't have a margin to buy Gerdau doesn't mean it lacks appreciation potential. It is a company that, look here, Graham, Benjamin Graham, who has the method for the intrinsic value of companies. Potential for it, look at the margin here, above 20%, the fair price for the company today is R $ 32. Got it? So that is the first stock on our list. And just a quick message here, folks. If you want to join my community and get access to this tool right here, the CBI Central, which is exactly what I'm using to analyze price, projected ceilings for stocks, a VIP WhatsApp group, monthly live streams, and an investment course from scratch so you can learn the right way, just click on the first comment pinned to this video, okay? Talk directly to me and join the best community out there, the CBI community. Now, without further ado, let's move on to the second stock on our list, okay? The second one, I'll put it up here for you, is Axia. It was at better prices, you know, when it was costing R $ 50, R $ 49, but in my opinion, it does have the potential to appreciate even more. Got it? Notice here, look, at this moment, it's costing R $ 55.57. If we take a look, check the fair price here, according to Benjamin Graham, R $ 58, we have a margin of safety of a little over 4%. And that's what I want to tell you, folks. It's a completely different thesis from the previous one. Here we are talking about a company linked to the electric and infrastructure sector. So, there is a characteristic here that can be extremely important at this moment, which is what, Beca? Right, predictability of cash generation. Got it? So, think about this with me. When you buy an infrastructure company, you're not just looking at the next quarter's results, right? You're looking at a company that can generate cash for many, many years. And that is precisely why long-term interest rates are so important. So, when interest rates are very high, the investor demands a higher return to invest in long-term assets. But when future interest rates start to fall, companies linked to predictable cash generation can become more attractive. And that is what could trigger, in my opinion, a repricing and energy. That is precisely why I believe that the behavior of interest rates is one of the main points for us to follow Axia 3 during September. If the market begins to see an improvement in the Brazilian fiscal scenario and, consequently, a drop in long-term interest rates, infrastructure companies may benefit. Axia has a defensive characteristic. Every time you think of Xia Energia, think of defense. We are talking about electric power, an essential service. So, even if the economy slows down, people will keep consuming energy and companies will still need it. We have infrastructure, an essential service, cash generation, plus the potential to benefit from lower interest rates. And this combination is very interesting. Of course, in the electric sector—and we must mention this—there are regulatory and operational execution risks, but precisely because it presents a combination of predictability and interest rate sensitivity, it is a stock that, in my view, deserves to be on your radar in September. All right, everyone? But do the analysts agree with me? Take a look right here. Look at the general consensus in this projection for Áxia. A unanimous buy consensus, with a 12- month target price averaging R $ 70.80, with a potential of 25%, almost 26%, remembering this is the average, folks. If we take the maximum in this 12-month projection, we have a much higher potential with a target price of R $ 79 . All good, everything clear? Let's move on to another stock now, right? Let's keep going, stress-free and very quickly. Another stock where, in my view, we can still see further gains for this company. Wait, Beca, it has already appreciated too much. It can appreciate even more. Look who I am talking about here. Petrobras. Check out the fair value according to Benjamin Graham. R $ 82. And we have a margin of 42.5%. We are talking about one of the most well-known stocks on our Brazilian stock exchange. And there is a thesis here that I consider very interesting, because Petrobras can function in quite different scenarios, folks. Let's imagine the first scenario , a positive one for Brazil, OK? If there is a fiscal improvement, a reduction in long-term interest rates, and an increase in investor confidence, the market in general could benefit, right? So, Petrobras can obviously participate in this movement. That is why I say the following: Petrobras is that very sensitive asset; you know, like a child raised by their grandmother? That's Petrobras. I usually tell my students that, okay? Now, if we see a worsening, an opposite scenario—that is, if the fiscal situation worsens, the real devalues, and what will happen? The dollar will rise. And then, in that more worrying scenario, Petrobras can have a feature that I find very interesting because it is exposed to an international commodity and has oil-related revenues, which means, my young grasshopper, it does not depend exclusively on the performance of the Brazilian economy. OK? This here is really cool, because beyond that, there’s a matter that is called or that goes into your pocket and mine, which are the dividends. Got it? PETR4 continues to be a company with enormous cash generation capacity. And when we combine these things like cash generation, right, oil, plus currency exposure, and also the dividends, right, which I can't fail to mention, we have a company that may continue to attract a lot of attention even in an environment of greater volatility. Got it? There is a very important warning here that I always mention regarding Petrobras. Petrobras is not a company I would analyze by looking only at the company's price, look, R $ 47.13. We also need to follow the price of oil, production, investments, pricing policy, dividend distribution, and company decisions, okay? There is also, of course, political risk. Potential, I always say , is accompanied by risks that need to be considered. So, even so, in a portfolio that needs to be prepared for various scenarios, Petrobras can play, as it has been playing so far in my portfolio, for example, a very interesting role. Even with this stock on the rise, the average target price is R $ 56.28, with 20%potential, the general consensus is a buy for the company. So, so far, my thinking is aligned with the market. But even if it wasn't aligned, and they were talking here about selling the companies, that there was no potential in their view, there is no right or wrong. Here, okay? My view and their view in the end, what do you need to do? Study and see what matters to you or not. The decision in the end is always yours, I always say that here. Got it? And what is the next company? Let's go. In my opinion, now in September, there is a lot of appreciation potential. Look who it is, CURI, a construction and development company. Remember I told you at the beginning, we have already talked a lot about Meln, JSF, right, Mitre. This is a company more off the radar, right? We arrive here at a stock that could be one of the most interesting in this interest rate scenario. At this moment, one share of the company is costing R $ 33.45. cents. And here I want you to pay close attention, because the thesis is very different from Petrobras. Curi is a company in the construction sector with a strong presence in the low-income segment. Get this insight here. Companies in this sector are very sensitive to credit and interest rates. So, imagine the following scenario: future interest rates start to fall, the market begins to believe more in an improvement in the fiscal outlook, financing conditions improve, and then what happens? Consumers start to have more access to mortgage credit. And who is able to benefit from this? Construction companies. Got it? This happens because lower interest rates can improve consumer payment capacity, right? Stimulating demand for properties. But of course, that's not all, folks. When interest rates fall, the company's own value can be reassessed. We can have two effects happening at the same time, which is an improvement in operations and a repricing of the company. Notice here with me, look, it's at this level. We are seeing a drop of over 18%at this moment. It distributed dividends, at least in the last 12 months, above 15%, right? Past dividends are no guarantee of future returns, but I believe that the stock can indeed be a great bet on an improvement in credit conditions and the macroeconomic environment. But there is something very important here that we cannot overlook, which is the following, folks: we don't need to wait for the SELIC to actually fall for the stock to start reacting, okay? And that is precisely why the stock can be an interesting one to follow, to watch, and to study. Be careful, if it doesn't fit your profile, you don't invest, got it? The decision is yours, I always say that here, okay? So, look, it can be considered, in my view, as a kind of bet, mind you, on an improvement in credit conditions and the macroeconomic environment. So, manage risk in your portfolio. It is very important. Remember that the stock market works with expectations. So, if the market starts to believe that interest rates will fall, stocks start to rise even before the reduction happens, okay? The market always anticipates. So, this is one of the reasons why I think the behavior of future interest rates is so important, okay? Now, the stock also has risks like other companies, alright ? Construction is a cyclical sector. Demand depends on credit, income, employment, costs, and economic conditions. So, the thing is, it's not the kind of stock to simply buy because interest rates will fall, okay? Be wise . You need to analyze if the company is worth it individually and also as part of your overall portfolio. But of the five companies I brought in this video, CURI for me is one of the ones that has the most direct relationship, truly linked to a potential improvement in the interest rate scenario. And the analysts 'view, notice, look at the target price for CURI, R $ 45.54, with a potential above 36%. And here the decision is unanimous. Let's move on to the last stock on this list. You will understand why I chose it. Look, Sabesp , here's the thing, we are talking about an essential service. People need water and sanitation regardless of the economy. Whether it is growing a lot or a little, that is a fact. Alright, folks? So this also brings interesting predictability to the business, but the big question involving Sabesp goes far beyond that. Those of you who have been following the company know that it went through a privatization process, right? And now there is a great expectation regarding an increase in efficiency. The market has its eyes wide open for Sabesp. So, Sabesp? When will this efficiency improve? The capacity to make investments, and it is really being bombarded with these questions, right, guys? So this could be extremely important for the future of the company , okay? Look here with me, right now it is costing R $ 26.57. Just imagine with me a company that has a huge customer base, operates in an essential service, and still has room to improve its operational efficiency. If this transformation is well executed, the market may start to see a much more efficient and profitable company. And then we arrive at interest rates again, okay? We get to the main point. Sabesp is a company whose value depends a lot on cash generation over many years. Therefore, my friend, when long-term interest rates fall, the present value of these cash flows can increase. And in my opinion, all of this contributes to a repricing of the company. That's why I observe Sabesp, for us to keep an eye on, because here we have an essential service, right? Potential for efficiency gains, long-term cash generation, plus a possible benefit from lower interest rates. And there is still an important point that you don't know, look, Sabesp, folks, it doesn't necessarily need to show an explosion in its profit for the stock to appreciate. If the market starts to believe that the company will be more efficient in the future, its price may start to anticipate this improvement. Got it? So this is one of the most interesting characteristics of the stock market. The price today anticipates the result tomorrow. The projections here, general consensus, buy, target price R $ 34.24. with upside potential for Sabesp over 28%. And now I want to know from you, which one would you choose if you were buying now in September, aiming for growth? GGBR4, Auren, Petrobras, Auren or Sabesp? Which one? Comment below and I'll read everyone's, alright? And if you've followed me up to this point in the video, let me know, just put this in the comments. Just that. Potential, just that. Write potential there and I'll like everyone's comment. Watch this other video that I'll leave right here on the side. People are really liking it. Click on it and I'll see you there. Until next time. And peace out!