Bitcoin: The Dip Is Here. $82,500 Decides the Next 10 Days

have to understand when things are really bullish, you do not get big pullbacks and you do not want big pullbacks. That is not a good sign in and of itself. Well, it's actually an interesting day today because Bitcoin has traded more than a couple thousand outside of this range and ultimately we did look for a little bit of corrective move in the short term now uh based off yesterday's video. However, there are more important things now on the higher term time frames which uh actually do suggest kind of a nice little a nice little move I suspect over the next 5 to 10 days as well as a general overview of October. We'll also be of course um following up on some of our bigger setups as well because I think that a lot of that stuff is incredibly illuminating towards the general trajectory for Bitcoin here. Yeah, man. Um you know, a lot actually a lot of things new to talk about here today. um because Bitcoin on the short-term time frames is initiating a lot of the correct setups that we have been overlaying for the past few days. In fact, there's another one on the board. And while I do think that this correction, you know, it very well could drag a little bit lower, there are some really really really really really important things to be looking at on the higher term time frames that again, I mean, honestly, this is all just a ma it's significantly more likely to be a major massive opportunity rather than what everyone is kind of quoting on social media right now, which is it's over. It's over indeed. Anyway, okay, beautiful. Well, David Palona says, "Me waiting for 72 to 74,000 bucks." Good luck with that. I am not of that opinion. In fact, I Well, I I mean, look, I I really do think like worst worst worst worst absolute worst case scenario would honestly probably be like 78,000 bucks, at least in my book. Um, if Bitcoin came down to like 72 or 74, this is what always bothers me or not bothers me, but like kind of um I guess impresses me. No, it uh it just I don't know. It it throws me for a loop. It's like people will be bullish and then they expect like these massive deep pullbacks. You have to understand when things are really bullish, you do not get big pullbacks and you do not want big pullbacks. That is not a good sign in and of itself. I mean, just look at Skeletor has something to say about that. You know, just look at previous uh previous bull bare market bull market switches in Bitcoin's history. It does get pullbacks for sure, but those pullbacks are generally uh shallow and also somewhat shortlived as well. I always like to pull back to this one as kind of like the picture perfect one coming from the 2018 to 2019 flip right here. Bitcoin spent about a month oscillating around that green 55 EMA on the weekly time frame. A lot of people were looking for pullbacks down to retest the breakout at 4500 or whatever the [ __ ] And uh and as you know as as you can see things just went up to the right from there. Yes, again you do get pullbacks but you know looking for more than a 10% pullback I think is unwise. I mean, then again, well, 10% from 86 to 78, that is a 10%. So, yeah, I I could I I could see that as as like the worst case scenario, and Bitcoin still remaining bullish, but Bitcoin coming down to 75,000 bucks or or below is not a [ __ ] good sign. Contrary to uh contrary to popular belief, I would not want to buy if it comes back down below there. Like, that that is not a good [ __ ] sign. It's like I'm bullish, so I want it to pull back. No, [laughter] I'm bearish, so I want it to pump. It's like also no it's when it's bearish it goes down. You don't get those p uh you know th those those big massive pumps uh at least that hold it first pamp then damp. Um yeah I mean if you look at the weekly time frame right here you can see that Bitcoin is is basically uh right on that red 5 EMA. So is this going to be considered a reconnect? It certainly will reconnect if Bitcoin does finish the week out above about 84 and a half to even $85,000. That will force a reconnect right there. But remember we did have a couple of corrective setups. Actually sorry not a couple. uh we did have three. So the 6-hour time frame setup that one fired off between the red 5 EMA and the yellow 21 EMA which did happen all the way back on the last week of September on the 27th that has now been fulfilled on the minimum test of that green 55 EMA. Again, this is why these corrective setups really bother me until they're fulfilled because you can, you know, you are drawn to it like a magnet um at some point and and and you really can't really be expecting like major new highs or any new highs at all on the current rally until that is fulfilled. Yes, sometimes you do get that, but that is the exception of the rule, not necessarily the rule. Here's the thing, though. On the 12-h hour time frame, we also have a corrective setup here, and it is emerging as of right now. And while this one probably going to be fulfilled very, very, very quickly cuz technically it's going to fire off on the next closure in 7 hours and 21 minutes alongside the daily closure. Uh we do, you know, I will be looking at that green 55 EMA as a minimum target for a magnet for price action, which right now is 82,500, basically the low of the pre or of this current consolidation. So, I do think that Bitcoin will graze that area yet again. Uh, and until that is fulfilled, I really do not expect any sort of like major massive bounce. We'll go into what a bounce would likely look like because we h we can back test that. But before we do that, I also want to let you know that the daily time frame, this one still never met its final corrective target from the cross that happened back on the 15th. So, sorry, 15th of of September, that is, so nearly a month ago. And that green 55 EMA, which would be my lowest target for this current uh correction, if it happens at all. and we'll go over what the sort of trajectory would look like if that happened a little bit later, but that would be potentially down to 79,000 bucks. That is what my worst case scenario for this um correction kind of is right now. Would not want to see anything lower than that. That would really call into question the overall consolidation and its health. But let's now go back to the 6 and the 12-hour because Bitcoin has fulfilled the 6-h hour and is very likely to fulfill the 12-hour. I would say within within the next day or two is probably quite likely. So I've gone through all these in bitcoins here especially the ones in the past uh sorry in the past 10 to or 10 to 11 years back since 2015 and this has happened many times in fact 77 times and when we see that test hold meaning that the green 55 EMA does hold price action you don't see any major deviations from it on a closing basis. So again, closing basis means that literally you need to see a closure. You know, I would say in this case it would need to be below about $82,000 or 82200. Um then we can look at the statistics pertaining to a bounce that you typically get from that corrective setup. And if that holds well 65% of the time it is green within the next 10day period. And that green period is a medium return of just over 3%. And you know, that doesn't sound like much, but putting in it in in terms of uh you know, current price action, well, if we were to measure about just over 3% from that 55 EMA as where it is right now, well, that put Bitcoin back at around you know, $85,000. Of course, might be a little more than that, might be a little bit less, but I do think that that does uh have some interesting implications for especially Koshi markets actually coming into the end of this week. Let's go to the Bitcoin weeklys. What are they giving you for uh Bitcoin above 85,000 bucks by end of week? Uh that would be 24 cents right now. Um look, yes, it's a little it would be a little bit premature to call that, but it would I I actually do think that there's a little bit of an edge right here. So, I'm actually going to take this one myself. Uh Bitcoin above 85,000 bucks by end of week, I'm just going to bet 10 bucks right here. But because it's 24 uh for a yes contract, that is going to pay out nearly a little bit more than 4 to one. So, I'll take that right here. Uh we can do that together as well. If you are so if you are so cavalier again I use Koshi in the way that you just saw right there. Very small dollar amounts very you know minimal trading just kind of scratch the edge overall. Yes we do have a nice shill link as we have partnered with them. There is one in the description below. And if you trade up to or if you trade $25 right now you'll get up to $500 in free trading credit. Uh that that is a limited time promotion. Then it'll go back up to $50 in trading volume. I don't know if that matters too much for you or not. Uh but basically that's the deal as of right now. Anyways, links in the description as always. In fact, it's actually is it near? Is it the first one? No, it's the second one right here. There we go. Other than that, oh, I should also mention we do still have our October sale going on. I won't go too much deep into that, but hey, Trading View is changing the rules. It might be the last time to get lifetime indicators as far as I'm as far as I know. So, we are offering 20% off the code lifetime. Anyways, moving on from there, back into the actual analysis. Let's go revisit one of the major things. [clears throat] One of the major things um that has been kind of guiding our long-term sort of uh bullish look um since this was I guess this happened back on when? This happened uh earlyish September. That's the golden cross of course and I still want to look at the dispersion of returns and measure it against the overall map. Uh but here's a golden cross. This one happened 29 days ago. nearly a month ago at this moment. And we can see the median of returns from the golden uh from previous golden crosses um which right now is the green line and that would as of today be about plus about 3 and a/4% or so and the white line is the realized returns for this current golden cross. You can see that the returns are now coming back towards the median. This is what I mean by returns are mean reverting. Meaning that when you have a dispersion of returns roadmap like you see right here, you can generally expect over time your current instance to match the median if it does overperform or underperform for a you know for a uh prolonged period especially. So when we saw it overperform over here back on about day number 14, we said hey look this is this is massively overdoing it. This would be like a major outlier in fact as well. uh expect some sideways, expect some downside as well on corrected moves. That's what we're getting right here. That also, you know, offers a bit of an edge, meaning that, you know, would you necessarily want to short right there? I don't know about that. But you could have been taking profits right there and reloading a little bit lower as a, you know, as just one idea on how to play that. By the same token, if this one was underperforming significantly, then guess what? You would have the same sort of play on the other side. You know, could have had some edge with buying and looking for a return close to that meeting of returns. Uh so again a lot of ways to do these sort of things and ultimately I you know look I think that this one is more or less on track still and again the big sort of timeline or the big sort of date to have a number on is day number 40 which is more or less uh I guess 10 days from today which puts us at the end of week of of the next week to the beginning of the third week of November or sorry of October is what I mean not not November obviously um that's when we expect another step up that's And again, the medium returns basically goes from like [ __ ] 3% all the way up to 20%. So that's where you see like some pretty crazy gains typically speaking. And that's where I'd be expecting around the timing for the next potential leg up. Until then, I still remain with what I've been saying for a while now. Bitcoin likely to be going sideways here in a consolidation. But that consolidation is ultimately bullish, especially as long as Bitcoin holds above, you know, god forbid$825,000. Even it breaks below there. I do think Bitcoin has a nice solid run towards about 80,000 bucks or 80,400. uh that would be my next sort of bounce area if this current one does give way. That's the one that really matters because that is a 12-h hour trending higher low as of right now. That is effectively 80,000 bucks. If Bitcoin breaks below there, I do think you have a run towards $79,000. Again, playing out some of the earlier um things that we spoke about um namely the daily corrective setup right here and fulfilling a test towards that green 55 EMA. doesn't mean that needs to happen right now, but if if we did see $80,000 break, yeah, I'd be looking for something like that and that would be my last sort of major area of interest for the next higher low. If Bitcoin really starts to trade much below there, I don't think it's a good sign. I think that that's going to indicate something else is going on. Again, these are all on closing basis, not on just a wick down. You know, you can get wicks downs, that's fine. But again, when I reference the higher term time frames like the weekly, the bi-weekly, the uh the uh the 3-week time frame as well, all of these, you know, realistically, uh don't I I don't think that we're going to see below 80,000 bucks. Um especially on on closing bases. Uh all these look like consolidations on high levels. Remember, the bi-weekly and the 3WE time frame as well as the quarterly all closed on massive bullish engulfing dong. So pullbacks here likely an opportunity and realistically we're not even below that previous trending lower high on the weekly time frame from the crown pivots indicator. So, I look at this just to reconnect right now. In fact, I would say Bitcoin probably already even has a low. I mean, basically the low end like it's very likely going to reconnect officially with the green 55 on the on the 12-hour time frame here at 82 and a half,000 bucks. But, uh but um you know, I I I I think that that's a good um a good area to be looking for the next higher low. Keep in mind the 12-h hour time frame also is going to have potential for hidden bullish averance because the 12-h hour RSI is already well below that uh the last trending higher low right here which is about $80,000. So that will be available at some point. So I do think um Bitcoin likely puts in a you know the low higher basically uh daily time frame um again playing out some of that bearish divergence. Okay, fair enough. Um, ultimately I look for the daily on the Revan ribbons indicator over here to provide some edge. And guess what? It hit that short-term target based off of the break of the median from yesterday's video pretty much instantaneously. Uh, now I would also look at the [cough] the sorry um uh the uh the 82,500 number as the next sort of area that if Bitcoin does break below. Yeah. Um might not actually even thought that 80,000 bucks if if not for anything more than a bounce. It probably does go down to about 79,000 bucks. Uh but that would be like I said the last place that I'm really looking for on a higher low to keep the short-term medium-term bullish momentum alive or I guess more like medium-term short-term obviously is consolidation with sideways and down here. Anyways, other than that, I think it's time for me to put my money where my mouth is because again, long-term I am still bullish here and it is time to buy some old coins on the Derp base, which I'm going to buy 100 derpas of Bitcoin right here, right now. Doing it on Coinbase because as we have been uh as as we have partnered with them, it is the cheapest place to buy spot bitcoins, especially if you do it, you know, with a limit order and specifically [snorts] using my show link, the referral link that is in the description below. It's actually, in fact, actually, do I have it in the link description below? Yeah, I do. It's right here. um that will award you 80% off your spot trading fees and 10% off your derivative trading fees. Options coming for US citizens this [ __ ] month. Very excited about such things. All right, cool. We shall end on that note. I want to say a massive thank you for joining in on this nice little Wednesday morning.