I Sold a Big Position (My $240k Portfolio Update)
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…flat. Back then, I decided the best fix was to do absolutely nothing, take a break, go on holiday, and just wait. But if we have to be honest, I made some major mistakes at the beginning of this year. And probably I was also a bit unlucky. I bought PayPal right here and a week later the CEO got fired. I bought Adobe right here and Shantano Narayan decided to step down. I bought IM here and literally the next day Novorisk sue them. Stock picking is tough. It's really not for everybody. How many of us p…
I bought PayPal right here
Contexto extraído por IA I bought PayPal right here and a week later the CEO got fired.
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…thing, take a break, go on holiday, and just wait. But if we have to be honest, I made some major mistakes at the beginning of this year. And probably I was also a bit unlucky. I bought PayPal right here and a week later the CEO got fired. I bought Adobe right here and Shantano Narayan decided to step down. I bought IM here and literally the next day Novorisk sue them. Stock picking is tough. It's really not for everybody. How many of us panic sell on this kind of bad news? Years ago when I started i…
I bought Adobe right here
Contexto extraído por IA I bought Adobe right here and Shantano Narayan decided to step down.
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…tely outside my circle of competence and I had no idea how the government policy could impact Oscar. So when the stock price kept dropping, I started doubting my own assumptions. I was not able to hold a company I did not fully understand. I end up selling at $13.73, taking a tiny 4% profit. Today is trading around $29. So, I completely missed out on a $20,000 win. Luckily, I had the willpower to hold on to my other crashing stocks like him, Novorisk, Dualingo. But when our stock crash, there is always a little doubt inside us…
I end up selling at $13.73, taking a tiny 4% profit.
Contexto extraído por IA this year I made a big mistake because I did not have the stability to hold Oscar Health... I end up selling at $13.73, taking a tiny 4% profit.
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… celebrate this milestone for just a moment. I closed my 13th trade since I started this channel. I never lost money on a single one. 13 contrarian trades, 13 green winners. So, what did I sell one day before? I did like Jeremy. >> Listen, I sold my PayPal. And around these parts, it'll always be referred to as PayPal. Yeah, good old PayPal. We sold it all, right? Sold it all. >> I closed the position I was most doubtful about, PayPal. I bought it at $57 in January and I sold it at $57 and ch…
I sold my PayPal.
Contexto extraído por IA Listen, I sold my PayPal. And around these parts, it'll always be referred to as PayPal. Yeah, good old PayPal. We sold it all, right? Sold it all.
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… is a ranking and I would like you to vote down to help me decide which one to buy. First option is SoFi. I love this kind of growth in revenue and members. I love that Anthony no is actively buying shares. Sofi price is fair almost cheap. Second is Mercado Libé. Revenue is going up while the share price is going down. I like that it's very cheap. I dislike that it's a complex business and if I don't want to repeat the Oscar health mistake, I will have to study way more before investing. Third is service. Now I'm convinced software has a lot of upside. The AI narrative, it's exagger…
Second is Mercado Libé. Revenue is going up while the share price is going down. I like that it's very cheap.
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Third is service. Now. I'm convinced software has a lot of upside.
Contexto extraído por IA Third is service. Now. I'm convinced software has a lot of upside. The AI narrative, it's exaggerated. So, every software looks very cheap.
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…e. The AI narrative, it's exaggerated. So, every software looks very cheap. I already have Adobe, but I'm thinking about increasing my software exposure here. Service Now is not the cheapest at 22 forward PE, but it has the strongest mode. Fourth is Oracle. This is the only AI infrastructure company that is actually going down instead of going up. If, and it's a big if, OpenAI maintains their 300 billion commitment, Oracle is very, very cheap. But if they don't, their 122 billion in depth, it's going to become a very big issue. Fifth is Celsius. This is actually the first stock I ever traded in this channel and this is my first video that pass a thousand views. So I'm connected …
Fourth is Oracle. This is the only AI infrastructure company that is actually going down instead of going up. If, and it's a big if, OpenAI maintains their 300 billion commitment, Oracle is very, very cheap.
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…ompany that is actually going down instead of going up. If, and it's a big if, OpenAI maintains their 300 billion commitment, Oracle is very, very cheap. But if they don't, their 122 billion in depth, it's going to become a very big issue. Fifth is Celsius. This is actually the first stock I ever traded in this channel and this is my first video that pass a thousand views. So I'm connected to this company. What I like is that it's a very easy business to understand and I believe they can successfully expand across Europe. Valuation wise is cheapish but of course I would like it even lower. I always like it lower especially when I don't own t…
Fifth is Celsius. This is actually the first stock I ever traded in this channel and this is my first video that pass a thousand views. So I'm connected to this company.
Contexto extraído por IA Fifth is Celsius. This is actually the first stock I ever traded in this channel and this is my first video that pass a thousand views. So I'm connected to this company. What I like is that it's a very easy business to understand and I believe they can successfully expand across Europe.
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… I like is that it's a very easy business to understand and I believe they can successfully expand across Europe. Valuation wise is cheapish but of course I would like it even lower. I always like it lower especially when I don't own them. Six is Netflix. The more it goes down, the more I am tempted. The earnings were not amazing, but weren't that bad either, and valuation wise is starting to look attractive. It is not a complete bargain like it was in 2022, but it is a great company, easy to understand at a very reasonable valuation. …
Six is Netflix. The more it goes down, the more I am tempted.
Contexto extraído por IA Six is Netflix. The more it goes down, the more I am tempted. The earnings were not amazing, but weren't that bad either, and valuation wise is starting to look attractive.
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…ay, now I have to decide how to allocate this 20% cash balance. Here are six new companies I'm looking to buy. And if you check the first pin comment, there is a ranking and I would like you to vote down to help me decide which one to buy. First option is SoFi. I love this kind of growth in revenue and members. I love that Anthony no is actively buying shares. Sofi price is fair almost cheap. Second is Mercado Libé. Revenue is going up while the share price is going down. I like that it's very cheap. I dislike that it's a complex business and if I don't want to repeat the Oscar health mistake, I will have to study way more befo…
First option is SoFi. I love this kind of growth in revenue and members. I love that Anthony no is actively buying shares. Sofi price is fair almost cheap.
Transcrição Completa
Guys, finally a really good month for my portfolio. This week, I officially crossed $100,000 in profit for the very first time. I also made a big change, selling out completely of one of my largest position. Because of that, I now have fresh capital to buy a new company. So, today I'm going to share my top ideas. And at the end of the video, we are going to play a stock ranking game to choose my next buy together. I know most of you guys follow me for my research videos analyzing and rankings other YouTubers, but once a month, I like to share my personal journey with you in a very simple and honest way. So, let's look at my year-to- date returns. As you can see, my year start incredibly [music] bad. I was down $40,000 while the S&P was basically flat. Back then, I decided the best fix was to do absolutely nothing, take a break, go on holiday, and just wait. But if we have to be honest, I made some major mistakes at the beginning of this year. And probably I was also a bit unlucky. I bought PayPal right here and a week later the CEO got fired. I bought Adobe right here and Shantano Narayan decided to step down. I bought IM here and literally the next day Novorisk sue them. Stock picking is tough. It's really not for everybody. How many of us panic sell on this kind of bad news? Years ago when I started investing, I probably would have sold everything. And after all these years, 18 years, I'm still making these mistakes. My point is that if you buy a company because your favorite YouTuber put it on a list, you are going to panic sell when things go very red. The only way to resist these kind of drops is to have your own conviction and to keep learning from your own mistakes. For example, this year I made a big mistake because I did not have the stability to hold Oscar Health. Listen, Oscar Health, another insurer, another extremely low valuation stock, very risky, very volatile. So, I clearly had the technical skill to understand that Oscar was wrongly priced. But here is the problem. I know a lot about valuation. I even invented my own method to value companies, but I know absolutely nothing about the US healthcare system. It's completely outside my circle of competence and I had no idea how the government policy could impact Oscar. So when the stock price kept dropping, I started doubting my own assumptions. I was not able to hold a company I did not fully understand. I end up selling at $13.73, taking a tiny 4% profit. Today is trading around $29. So, I completely missed out on a $20,000 win. Luckily, I had the willpower to hold on to my other crashing stocks like him, Novorisk, Dualingo. But when our stock crash, there is always a little doubt inside us. We constantly ask ourself, am I wrong about this? Listen to Howard Marx. We We're the kind of people who always say, "I could be wrong or it could work in a in a way that's never been seen before." When the markets are crashing, why are they crashing? They're crashing because the news is terrible. I read the same newspapers. I watch the same shows on TV. I'm I'm I'm attached to the same news feeds. I see the terrible news. It looks terrible to me. I overcome it in some way and conclude, "No, I should invest." But I'm not immune to what everybody else is reading. People who look at the world probabilistically and admit to uh ignorance and uncertainty can't act without trepidation. If you wait until you have nothing to be afraid about, probably the opportunity has passed. Please, my friend, do not trust these YouTubers who act like they would know the future or these traders that claim they have a method that never lose. I don't want to name names, but great investing, it's about understanding all the things that we don't know and that we cannot control. Ultimately, it's a game of probabilities. We cannot know the future, so we will always have some fears. But because I was convinced my holding were deeply undervalued and wrongly priced, I held on. And today, I'm back at all-time highs, up 11% year to date, and finally matching the S&P 500. If we look at the returns since I started this channel, I began with $140,000. I never deposited another scent. 18 months later, I'm at 100,000 in profit with a total portfolio value around 240,000. I do not like to brag or pump myself unlike other YouTubers. I don't have a course or a Discord to sell you. So, I usually prefer to talk about my mistakes. But let me celebrate this milestone for just a moment. I closed my 13th trade since I started this channel. I never lost money on a single one. 13 contrarian trades, 13 green winners. So, what did I sell one day before? I did like Jeremy. >> Listen, I sold my PayPal. And around these parts, it'll always be referred to as PayPal. Yeah, good old PayPal. We sold it all, right? Sold it all. >> I closed the position I was most doubtful about, PayPal. I bought it at $57 in January and I sold it at $57 and change in July. That money, 0.6% returns, including dividends in 6 months. If I bought it because it was cheap compared to the free cash flow, why did I sold for the exact same price? I have two reasons. First, the upside potential is not anymore about PayPal fundamentals. It is now completely driven by Stripe buyout offer, the free cash flow, the new initiative, the management skills do not matter anymore. Now, it's all about Stripe $60 per share offer. If someone is going to raise that offer, the price will go up. If no one does, the price is kept. and I'm not going to stick around to gamble on a bidding war where I have absolutely zero edge. Second, the rest of the market changed a lot. When I bought PayPal in January, opportunities were very scarce. Now, there are a lot of compelling stocks trading at very low valuations. I will name six in a minute. So, even if I sold, I'm still convinced PayPal is worth more than the current $60 offer. In my opinion, Stripe offer is low. I believe PayPal is worth at least $75 to $80 a share, but I'm not sure that management will be able to get that fair value for the shareholders. This leaves my current portfolio looking like this. 27% in Dualingo, a massive 20% cash balance, 14% in HIMS, 10% in Adobe, nine in Novo, eight in Sonara, seven in Microsoft, and six in booking. Earnings coming soon. My hope is that Dualingo will double bit revenue and earnings. Lately, they added dual cap avatar customization. From my estimate, this should be around 7 million in extra revenue, not included in the current guidance, which should be enough for a solid bit. For Adobe, the hope is that we get the new CEO announcement and that is someone great. But even if it's someone half [clears throat] decent, the stock will bounce in my opinion because there is nothing worse for investor than the current uncertainty for noises. Looking at Google's trend, novice is catching up with Lilies Monaro. I think they crashed the second quarter and finally we might have an earning bounce. Anyway, now I have to decide how to allocate this 20% cash balance. Here are six new companies I'm looking to buy. And if you check the first pin comment, there is a ranking and I would like you to vote down to help me decide which one to buy. First option is SoFi. I love this kind of growth in revenue and members. I love that Anthony no is actively buying shares. Sofi price is fair almost cheap. Second is Mercado Libé. Revenue is going up while the share price is going down. I like that it's very cheap. I dislike that it's a complex business and if I don't want to repeat the Oscar health mistake, I will have to study way more before investing. Third is service. Now I'm convinced software has a lot of upside. The AI narrative, it's exaggerated. So, every software looks very cheap. I already have Adobe, but I'm thinking about increasing my software exposure here. Service Now is not the cheapest at 22 forward PE, but it has the strongest mode. Fourth is Oracle. This is the only AI infrastructure company that is actually going down instead of going up. If, and it's a big if, OpenAI maintains their 300 billion commitment, Oracle is very, very cheap. But if they don't, their 122 billion in depth, it's going to become a very big issue. Fifth is Celsius. This is actually the first stock I ever traded in this channel and this is my first video that pass a thousand views. So I'm connected to this company. What I like is that it's a very easy business to understand and I believe they can successfully expand across Europe. Valuation wise is cheapish but of course I would like it even lower. I always like it lower especially when I don't own them. Six is Netflix. The more it goes down, the more I am tempted. The earnings were not amazing, but weren't that bad either, and valuation wise is starting to look attractive. It is not a complete bargain like it was in 2022, but it is a great company, easy to understand at a very reasonable valuation. So, this is my short list. Let's see who is going to win. One comment equal one point. One like to someone else comment equal.1 point. I will update the pin comment as much as possible as the votes come in with the current ranking. Please help me out telling me your favorite [music] choice. Thank you for watching until the end. I'm taking a couple of weeks off, but I will be back in August with some really cool research. So like, subscribe. Peace out.
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