‘PLACE SOME BETS': Wall Street investors looking at next AI trade
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…G THESE COMPANIES BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO GO FROM A SAAS MODEL WHERE THEY ARE RENTING TO A CONSUMPTION MODEL AND THAT THROWS OFF FREE CASH FLOW. SO THERE IS SOME OF MY CLIENTS WHO SAID THIS IS WAY TOO HARD. I CAN'T REALLY MODEL THE COMPANY SO THEY HAVE TRANSITIONED TO THE NEW COMPANIES LIKE A DATA DOG OR SNOWFLAKE, LOOKING AT MONGO DB, OR ANY CONSUMPTION NAMES THAT DON'T HAVE THAT SAAS COMPONENT PROBLEM. CHARLES: YOU DEAL WITHINS FUSION ALL INVESTORS WHO ARE SUPPOSED TO HAVE MORE PATIENCE THAN RETAIL INVESTORS BUT THESE NAMES ARE WHAT THEY HAVE IN COMMON IS IN THE LAST YEAR, I'VE SEEN THEM ALL POST PHENOMENAL EARNINGS AND I'VE SEEN THEM AL…
THEY HAVE TRANSITIONED TO THE NEW COMPANIES LIKE A DATA DOG OR SNOWFLAKE, LOOKING AT MONGO DB, OR ANY CONSUMPTION NAMES THAT DON'T HAVE THAT SAAS COMPONENT PROBLEM.
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…G THESE COMPANIES BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO GO FROM A SAAS MODEL WHERE THEY ARE RENTING TO A CONSUMPTION MODEL AND THAT THROWS OFF FREE CASH FLOW. SO THERE IS SOME OF MY CLIENTS WHO SAID THIS IS WAY TOO HARD. I CAN'T REALLY MODEL THE COMPANY SO THEY HAVE TRANSITIONED TO THE NEW COMPANIES LIKE A DATA DOG OR SNOWFLAKE, LOOKING AT MONGO DB, OR ANY CONSUMPTION NAMES THAT DON'T HAVE THAT SAAS COMPONENT PROBLEM. CHARLES: YOU DEAL WITHINS FUSION ALL INVESTORS WHO ARE SUPPOSED TO HAVE MORE PATIENCE THAN RETAIL INVESTORS BUT THESE NAMES ARE WHAT THEY HAVE IN COMMON IS IN THE LAST YEAR, I'VE SEEN THEM ALL POST PHENOMENAL EARNINGS AND I'VE SEEN THEM AL…
THEY HAVE TRANSITIONED TO THE NEW COMPANIES LIKE A DATA DOG OR SNOWFLAKE, LOOKING AT MONGO DB, OR ANY CONSUMPTION NAMES THAT DON'T HAVE THAT SAAS COMPONENT PROBLEM.
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…G THESE COMPANIES BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO GO FROM A SAAS MODEL WHERE THEY ARE RENTING TO A CONSUMPTION MODEL AND THAT THROWS OFF FREE CASH FLOW. SO THERE IS SOME OF MY CLIENTS WHO SAID THIS IS WAY TOO HARD. I CAN'T REALLY MODEL THE COMPANY SO THEY HAVE TRANSITIONED TO THE NEW COMPANIES LIKE A DATA DOG OR SNOWFLAKE, LOOKING AT MONGO DB, OR ANY CONSUMPTION NAMES THAT DON'T HAVE THAT SAAS COMPONENT PROBLEM. CHARLES: YOU DEAL WITHINS FUSION ALL INVESTORS WHO ARE SUPPOSED TO HAVE MORE PATIENCE THAN RETAIL INVESTORS BUT THESE NAMES ARE WHAT THEY HAVE IN COMMON IS IN THE LAST YEAR, I'VE SEEN THEM ALL POST PHENOMENAL EARNINGS AND I'VE SEEN THEM AL…
THEY HAVE TRANSITIONED TO THE NEW COMPANIES LIKE A DATA DOG OR SNOWFLAKE, LOOKING AT MONGO DB, OR ANY CONSUMPTION NAMES THAT DON'T HAVE THAT SAAS COMPONENT PROBLEM.
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…AND IT'S NOT GOING UP OR DOWN FIVE OR 10 BUCKS OR FIVE OR 10% A DAY. >> IT'S WHERE YOU SEE THE SPEND. AT THE END OF THE DAY, BOTTOM LINE IS IT'S GOING TO CONTROL DATA DOG BLEW UP THE NUMBER LAST QUARTER AND THAT'S WHY IT'S UP SO MUCH. THE OTHER TWO NAMES I'M GETTING A LOT OF PULL THROUGH IS PALANTIR AND TO SOME DEGREE, SNOWFLAKE. EACH ONE HAS A DIFFERENT STORY. PALANTIR JUST SIGNED A MAJOR AGREEMENT WITH NVIDIA ON O OPEN SOURCE MODELS. THAT IS A BIG MACRO THAT PEOPLE, THE INSTITUTIONAL COMMUNITY IS STARTING TO WORK ON VERSUS BEING TOTALLY EXPOSED TO THE FRONTIER MO…
THE OTHER TWO NAMES I'M GETTING A LOT OF PULL THROUGH IS PALANTIR AND TO SOME DEGREE, SNOWFLAKE.
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…AND IT'S NOT GOING UP OR DOWN FIVE OR 10 BUCKS OR FIVE OR 10% A DAY. >> IT'S WHERE YOU SEE THE SPEND. AT THE END OF THE DAY, BOTTOM LINE IS IT'S GOING TO CONTROL DATA DOG BLEW UP THE NUMBER LAST QUARTER AND THAT'S WHY IT'S UP SO MUCH. THE OTHER TWO NAMES I'M GETTING A LOT OF PULL THROUGH IS PALANTIR AND TO SOME DEGREE, SNOWFLAKE. EACH ONE HAS A DIFFERENT STORY. PALANTIR JUST SIGNED A MAJOR AGREEMENT WITH NVIDIA ON O OPEN SOURCE MODELS. THAT IS A BIG MACRO THAT PEOPLE, THE INSTITUTIONAL COMMUNITY IS STARTING TO WORK ON VERSUS BEING TOTALLY EXPOSED TO THE FRONTIER MO…
THE OTHER TWO NAMES I'M GETTING A LOT OF PULL THROUGH IS PALANTIR AND TO SOME DEGREE, SNOWFLAKE.
Transcrição Completa
CHARLES: THE THEME OF TODAY'S SHOW IS FLIPPING THE SCRIPT FOLKS AND MY NEXT GUEST IS LOOKING TO DO THAT MOVING FROM SEMIS TO SOFTWARE. I WANT TO BRING IN BAIRD TECH STRATEGIST TECH MORTGAGE ONSON. YOU'VE BEEN GETTING A LOT OF INK LATELY BUT WE'VE GOT TO GET TED IN HERE SPEAKING OF INK, SO THIS MORNING, BERNSTEIN RELEASES THEIR CIO SURVEY AND I THOUGHT IT WAS AMAZING PARTICULARLY COMING ON THE HEELS OF WHAT IBM HAD TO SAY YESTERDAY. A LOT OF GREAT THINGS S HERE IN TERMS OF WHERE THEY ARE GOING WHERE THE INVESTMENT IS GOING BUT THIS LINE HERE CAUGHT ME THE MOST RIGHT? THEY NOTED THE CIO'S DID NOT EXPECT TO INCREASE SPENDING ON LARGE LANGUAGE MODEL VENDORS SUCH AS OPENA.I. AND ANTHROPIC REINFORCING THE VIEW THAT ENTERPRISES PREFER CONSUMING A.I. THROUGH ESTABLISHED SOFTWARE PLATFORMS RATHER THAN BUILDING CAPABILITIES IN-HOUSE. NOW WE'VE BEEN HEARING THAT FOR A LONG TIME AND YET A LOT OF THESE SOFTWARE NAMES HAVE STILL BEEN GETTING CLOBBERED. DOES THIS MAKE IT FEEL LIKE MAYBE THESE GUYS ARE OVER SOLD HERE? >> I THINK YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT IT FROM A PERSPECTIVE OF HOW THE INSTITUTIONAL PM'S ARE WORKING RIGHT NOW. IF YOU LOOK AT THE DATA CENTER TRADE WE HAVE MASSIVE INFLATION. LOOK AT MEMORY PRICES, LOOK AT ADVANCED ANALOG. PRICES ARE UP ALMOST 25% SO I THINK THAT'S AFFECTING PEOPLE LIKE IBM ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WHERE THOSE DOLLARS ARE GOING. I.T. BUDGETS ARE UP PROBABLY 4% ON AVERAGE, COMPONENT PRICES ARE UP 25 SO AS YOU REPOSITION YOUR PORTFOLIO ON RISK RETURN THE SOCKS IS UP ALMOST 80%. SOFTWARE OF THE IGV INDEX IS DOWN 11 SO THERE IS A HUGE ARBITRAGE ON SOFTWARE AND PEOPLE ARE LOOKING TO PLACE SOME BETS ON THE NEW SOFTWARE COMPANIES. CHARLES: ALL RIGHT SO AND AGAIN CYBERSECURITY IS KILLING IT. EVERYONE EVEN IBM ACKNOWLEDGED THIS WHERE ALL OF THE MONEY IS GOING, GENAI HAS DONE WELL, PLATFORM SOFTWARE AGAIN THIS IS ACACCORDING TO CIO'S IN THE U.S. EXPECT EVEN LESS SPENDING IN THE SECOND HALF THAN THE FIRST HALF TO YOUR POINT AND IT MAKES IT EVEN MORE TREACHEROUS, SO I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THEN WHERE THE OPPORTUNITIES ARE BECAUSE NOT ALL SOFTWARE STOCKS, WE'RE LEARNING THIS , WILL DO PRETTY WELL. I THOUGHT YESTERDAY WAS A GOOD DAY FOR FOLKS TO LOOK AT THE SOFTWARE NAMES UP IN LIGHT OF THE IBM NEWS AS A TAIL. SOME OF THE THINGS YOU'RE LOOKING FOR , THERE'S A LOT HERE AND I WISH WE HAD TED TALK TIME TO GO THROUGH IT ALL BUT IS THERE SOMETHING THE VIEWERS LOOK AUTOMATE MORE SPECIFICALLY TO SAY THIS IS WHAT I ALWAYS WANT TO UNDERSTAND THIS. >> SURE SO THERE IS OLD SOFTWARE AND NEW SOFTWARE. THE OLD SOFTWARE IS BASED ON A SAAS MODEL, WHERE YOU'RE RENTING CODE. AS YOU GO TO THE NEW, ALL OF THIS INFRASTRUCTURE SOFTWARE LIKE A SNOWFLAKE, THOSE MODELS CHANGE. THEY AREN'T SUBSCRIPTION. THEY ARE CONSUMPTION-BASED. CHARLES: THAT'S WHAT THEY ALSO MEAN WITH THE SEAT-BASED MODEL AND THE SOFTWARE.COM SALESFORCE.COM. THOSE KIND OF NAMES SEEM TO BE TAKING IT ON THE CHIN EVEN MORE SO THAN TO YOUR POINT, THE NEWER BUSINESS MODEL NAMES. >> THE REASON WHY, CHARLES, I S BECAUSE THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR IS REALLY HAVING A LOT OF TROUBLE MODELING THESE COMPANIES BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO GO FROM A SAAS MODEL WHERE THEY ARE RENTING TO A CONSUMPTION MODEL AND THAT THROWS OFF FREE CASH FLOW. SO THERE IS SOME OF MY CLIENTS WHO SAID THIS IS WAY TOO HARD. I CAN'T REALLY MODEL THE COMPANY SO THEY HAVE TRANSITIONED TO THE NEW COMPANIES LIKE A DATA DOG OR SNOWFLAKE, LOOKING AT MONGO DB, OR ANY CONSUMPTION NAMES THAT DON'T HAVE THAT SAAS COMPONENT PROBLEM. CHARLES: YOU DEAL WITHINS FUSION ALL INVESTORS WHO ARE SUPPOSED TO HAVE MORE PATIENCE THAN RETAIL INVESTORS BUT THESE NAMES ARE WHAT THEY HAVE IN COMMON IS IN THE LAST YEAR, I'VE SEEN THEM ALL POST PHENOMENAL EARNINGS AND I'VE SEEN THEM ALL REACT TO THEM. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE DAYS WHERE DATA DOG WENT THROUGH THE ROOF, RIGHT? PALANTIR HAS HAD GOOD DAYS, SNOWFLAKE IS DOWN TODAY. I GUESS THE QUESTION IS, AT WHAT POINT DO THEY GET CONSISTENCY? CAN MAYBE INVESTORS SAY HEY, I OWN THE STOCK AND IT'S NOT GOING UP OR DOWN FIVE OR 10 BUCKS OR FIVE OR 10% A DAY. >> IT'S WHERE YOU SEE THE SPEND. AT THE END OF THE DAY, BOTTOM LINE IS IT'S GOING TO CONTROL DATA DOG BLEW UP THE NUMBER LAST QUARTER AND THAT'S WHY IT'S UP SO MUCH. THE OTHER TWO NAMES I'M GETTING A LOT OF PULL THROUGH IS PALANTIR AND TO SOME DEGREE, SNOWFLAKE. EACH ONE HAS A DIFFERENT STORY. PALANTIR JUST SIGNED A MAJOR AGREEMENT WITH NVIDIA ON O OPEN SOURCE MODELS. THAT IS A BIG MACRO THAT PEOPLE, THE INSTITUTIONAL COMMUNITY IS STARTING TO WORK ON VERSUS BEING TOTALLY EXPOSED TO THE FRONTIER MODELS. THAT'S NUMBER ONE. ON SNOWFLAKE, THEY HAVE TWO PRODUCTS ONE IS CALLED "COCO" AND ONE IS CALLED SNOWFLAKE INTELLIGENCE. THESE TWO PRODUCTS ARE ACTUALLY DRIVING TOP LINE GROWTH, SO THAT'S IF YOU EXCEED ON THE TOP LINE, AND YOU CAN BRING IT TO THE BOTTOM LINE ON FREE CASH FLOW YOU WIN. PALANTIR'S FREE CASH FLOW IS NOTHING LIKE I'VE EVER SEEN IN SOFTWARE AS WELL AS 8 BILLION ON THE BALANCE SHEET AND NO DEBT. IT'S A PHENOMENAL -- CHARLES: AND DOESN'T HURT WHEN ALEX KARP GOES ON NATIONAL TV AND LAYS IT INTO EVERYONE. TRYING TO GET HIM HERE. TED THIS I
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