These SoFi Numbers Could Be Hinting at a Big Quarter!

So second quarter results are going to be very complex because there's a lot of moving pieces, way more than usual. So in this video, I want to talk to you guys about some of those updates that we should be expecting and that would influence Q2's numbers and that you could potentially decide whether you want to buy more or sell before earnings. First up in this video, let's talk about the actual stock price. So over the last little bit since the beginning of the year, showing off two separate quarters, one that ended up crashing the stock and another one where we saw promising results from the stock only to give it up later on and end up falling even further. The stock ended up getting to a low of $14.92 in 2026. As of the more recent month, however, the stock is up 16% even in the light of many of the things that we will end up talking about. However, one of those things is website traffic. SoFi's website traffic for Q2 involves these three months, April, May, and June. And while May and June ended up sporting what seemingly looked like lower and lower months, the amount of days in June is one less than what we see in May. And so the actual daily traffic remained the same, but the numbers ended up appearing a little bit lower. Regardless, it doesn't look anything like what we ended up seeing in March or April. And that amount of growth is packed into the total quarterly report, but this is not a record new quarter for SoFi. This quarter is showing off slightly lower than the quarter before, but year-over-year, we're still looking at 37.8% growth on website traffic. Now, I know what a lot of people think that website traffic is not the main form of how people are actually going on to SoFi, and most people use the app instead of going on the website. The way that I look at it is like a survey. While this is not going to be everyone and it's probably only about 5% of people actually use the website, it is a good indicator of whether or not the company on the app site as well will be growing because the people who like the website are likely the same type of customer who likes the app as well. Now to put this into comparison, Robin Hood saw a breakthrough second quarter and especially in June. Big big spike up. It was their most popular month. That was because the World Cup, a lot of event contracts there. Crypto really hasn't done much recently. So, SoFi is not seeing the benefit of that, but neither is Robin Hood. But yet, whenever we take a look at Upstart, their June numbers were mind-blowing. Way, way higher than ever before. And so, what we end up seeing is some of the best quarters as of recently and especially this quarter. That's actually indicating roughly 50% growth year-over-year. Upsert has a practically identical product to what SoFi has under the loan platform business writing loans for other institutions using their capital, but people are paying you for your underwriting capabilities. And for Upstart, they show that off as being an AI tool. SoFi just says, "Hey, we've done a lot of underwriting. We're getting pretty good at it. You should pay us." But if this indicates that they are seeing a lot of overall growth in the origination side, which we'll talk about here in a moment, this could potentially indicate that SoFi might also do well because the greater macro of people actually needing loans would happen across both Upstart and SoFi at the same time. But luckily for us, Upstart actually shows us this loan demand in real time. So, this was actually updated today as Upstart just showed off that their June month was the best they've ever seen, sporting the highest amount of total originations that they've seen at 1.5 billion, up 48% year-over-year, which is right in line with what they're seeing with their Q2 website results. So, if SoFi ends up doing what they're seeing in their website traffic, then they could see potentially a 38% increase year-over-year in their loans, which would be unbelievable. or potentially if it ends up looking similar to what Upstart is doing, potentially even higher than that, upwards of nearly 50%. Another way to potentially gauge SoFi's interest is through Google Trends. as what we've ended up seeing is that there's been a 40% increase over this past year of total overall interest with the highest point of the year being June 6th to June 13th, which if that sparks any dates to you guys, you'll know that to be June 12th, the IPO date for SpaceX, which is exactly where you see a major spike up in interest for SoFi, which could indicate a lot of people trying to get access to SoFi Invest because they do have early access to IPO shares. But take a look at this as well. Their overall Google interest for SoFi is up 20% preceding the last 3 months and up 50% over the similar period a year prior. This was specifically over the past 3 months which is the quarter that SoFi is about to show Q2. But then we need to talk about SoFi money transfers and people are not talking about this enough. This is their ability to send money using cryptocurrency to countries all around the world, which whenever they first launched it said 30 plus countries directly from your SoFi checking and savings account. Now, whenever you look at this, well, this was back in December, you could see the amount of names that they ended up showing off, roughly 30 names. Today, there's a lot of new countries and very, very popular ones. So you see Brazil, India, Mexico, the Philippines, Singapore, United Kingdom, Thailand. These sort of new countries that they're adding on have major amounts of remittance markets for US customers sending money back to those countries. So this could be a really good addition if people are looking to find really, really cheap ways to send money to their family or friends that are back in these countries. Which brings me to SoFi USD. And while this is slightly different and for a different customer, you can still see that the growth on SoFi USD is looking really good. At over $33 million in total market cap, SoFi has built this up in very quick succession. And actually, Salana makes up for a larger part in this overall mix than Ethereum does when that was not the original case. Obviously, they launched with Ethereum first and then Salana and the Salana customers are doing very well with this. And the crazy thing is this is all before July 1st, which is when they're expected to launch their APIs for big business banking. And we should see a big ramp up in usage for SoFi USD on the SoFi big business banking platform. On July 1st, we will launch SoFi Bank on a new modern core and ledger. That's very important number one, but that'll also unlock a lot of capabilities that we'll bring to our partners, including simultaneously launching big business banking with an API format and an exchange network for fiat and cryptocurrency. That exchange network is the SoFi exchange network, also known as SEN, the ability for big businesses to send money to each other completely commission free. But there's a couple parts in here. This is from their latest quarter Q1 transcript that SoFi Bank will launch on a new modern core and ledger and that they're bringing big business banking with all the APIs to potentially send money and receive money both in fiat and cryptocurrency like SoFi USD. But then we also saw an update this quarter on small business loans. So this is not small business banking quite yet, but this is different than the marketplace that they were ended up showing off before. Grow with a small business loan straight from SoFi. This is not giving this out to a different partner or Ammex or any of these other names. This is coming from SoFi. So, this is quite exciting that they're branching out into small business loans that could potentially open us up to small business checking accounts and other forms of products like credit cards and all of these things that could help these customers. And then all of the stuff that they're doing with big business banking and the new core and ledger and all these additional capabilities will bleed into all these other areas that they want to build into. But banks are very capital intensive and you need scale in order to branch out into all these different areas. That's where SoFi's consolidated net assets ranking ends up coming into this showing that SoFi is now the 46th biggest bank in America based on consolidated assets. And in fact, we're also seeing the same thing from the FFE showing them at the 54th ranking at over $53 billion. two different agencies, both showing that SoFi's assets are climbing extremely quickly and growing faster than their competitors, bringing them closer to the number one spot. Obviously, you have the names of like Bank of America and JP Morgan, but we're not even trying to be number one, okay? We just want to be like top 20. That would be the amazing part to be at. On top of this, SoFi continues to launch these ancillary products like SOFFI's ETFs, the international efficient growth ETF, emerging market sufficient growth ETFs, risk off equity ETFs or risk on equity ETFs. All of these could potentially be good for traders or long-term holders alike. And it's not very costly for them to do this and could bring on additional new passive investors if they like these types of thematic ETFs. But what does this mean for the stock? Well, institutional ownership is at an all-time high once again. 803,000 shares held by institutions. But at the same breath, this doesn't break out whether companies are holding this to be a positive investor or a negative investor. Meaning, are you bullish or bearish? And that brings us to short interest, which also has just skyrocketed up. You look at the bottom here where it shows October 15th, 100 million shares sold short. Today, that's 195 million. We're essentially doubled it in the last 8 months or so. So, it's pretty crazy how short people are on SoFi right now. And this roughly accounts to about 16% of its public float being sold short. 16%. It's very high. But to me, SoFi is a macro trade. And depending on where we go with interest rates is what's going to actually be deciding for the stock. Right now, SoFi is guiding for no change in interest rates from the Federal Reserve. And we see a 22.4% 24% chance of that happening. But on the hike side, which would be very negative towards SoFi, we're seeing a nearly 77% chance of there being a hike, which would not be good for the company. An ease would be extra good. This means that they could actually end up selling their loans for a premium, end up recycling that money, end up getting more loans even quicker. There's a 0% chance of that happening by December of 2026. Now, just because there's a 0% chance doesn't mean that their odds can't change. We've seen from last year they said that 2026 was going to have three rate cuts. Now they're looking at potentially doing three rate hikes. So the odds can change in very quick succession even though new data that we're seeing could potentially even point to seeing rate cuts. So although we're seeing inflation data stay relatively high, higher than we wanted, 4.2% 2% on CPI. A lot of that could potentially be signs of higher oil prices, even in core CPI, which oil prices, if they remain high long enough, can bleed into core CPI. But with the memorandum of understanding from the Trump administration and Iran, we could potentially be seeing oil getting back to a level where we believe that the straight will be opened for the long term. So, this is actually signs that inflation will not persist higher and higher and this could show a need to cut. In recent reports of June's job data, new jobs that were end up getting taken was actually much lower than what consensus was at. I think it was like 64,000 new jobs versus 140,000 which was expected. So that type of miss would actually point the Federal Reserve to start actually cutting interest rates. But as you've seen, the market is just not picking up on that just yet. They still believe that either we're going to see no rate change, which would be fine for SoFi, that's what they guided towards, or a rate hike, which would not be good for SoFi. Overall, if you're a long-term holder, finding a company that can compound at a 30 plus percent rate, a PEG ratio of like6 times, this looks like an extremely cheap company here. But if you're looking for a name to swing trade that you potentially only want a one-year holding in or something along these lines, I necessarily wouldn't point you towards SoFi because the macro could get worse, rate hikes could come in, and we're not going to see any sort of blowout quarters that are going to drastically beat what Wall Street ends up seeing. This is a consistent compounder, constantly beating expectations, but also at a reasonable conservative level. So, if you want something for one year, maybe look elsewhere. If you want something for 5 years, SoFi might be one of the better bets. But ladies and gentlemen, if you guys like these sort of quick updates, let me know by hitting the like button. But until next time, thank you all so much for watching. Really do appreciate your time. Bye for now.