I Just Bought $3,500 More of These 2 Stocks. Here's Why

Hey everyone and welcome back to another portfolio update for you today. So over the past week the couch investing portfolio was let's call it flat whereas the S&P was actually up 1.37%. Year to date the portfolio is up 40 well let's call it 41% whereas the S&P is up 10.71% and since the startup portfolio it's up 255% whereas the S&P is up close to 52%. And so in today's video, we'll talk about the usual rate cuts, rate hikes, some company specific news items, technical analysis of a couple of names. We've got some interesting moves that have happened over the last couple of days. And we have an earning season that is starting off over the next week because as you can see, we have first the big banks, right? City, Goldman, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, all of that Tuesday before the open. But on Wednesday before the open that's already quite important ASML for the whole semiconductor story AI story. Then on Thursday another extremely important name probably even more important which is TSMC. And then for me and then for many of us we do have the first let's say tech company which is Netflix. Thursday after the close we do have some news regarding Netflix. Now, with regards to ASML, of course, as you know, the equipment makers ASML, applied materials, etc., etc., they've been doing quite well actually stock-wise. With ASML, I don't know if the market will still be focused on, oh, bookings per quarter. What's the number there? I think it's more about the long-term story. What are they seeing? And are they maybe changing their long to medium-term targets? As for TSMC, that has more of a, let's say, immediate impact, right? Are they still seeing an insane amount of demand? And maybe that's why they might accelerate and grow capex faster than expected because TSMC is the one that Yes, capex is there, but but they're not overspending, right? They're extremely extremely disciplined. And so it's going to be interesting to hear what they have to say about the current situation and maybe already some comments for 27 28 and things like that. So these two days could definitely move the AI/ semiconductor names. As for Netflix, I'll give my thought on that in a bit because we could look at what the market is looking for. Plus we are we do have some company specific items we need to discuss with regards to the next Fed meeting that is going to happen in 161 17 days or so. But if we go and look at what's expected for January 2027, we always look for January 2027. So we know what might happen in 2026. As you can see 33.8% chance that we're going to have one rate hike. 34.1% chance that we're going to have two of them or just one big one. Then we have already here 16% chance to go between 425 and 450. And then 3.5% chance that we're at 450 475. The current rate is of course right now between 350 and 375. And so it's going to be quite interesting to hear what of course the new Fed chair Kevin Walsh will say over the next couple of meetings to maybe more understand the way that they would like to work moving forward. As for how this affects a company like a SoFi, like a Robin Hood, etc., etc., we've talked about that before. I think with so far guidance in my opinion will still remain unchanged and well the assumptions that we are going to have zero rate cuts is still in play. Maybe now they'll say they are maybe baking in already one or two rate hikes could be could be something that might happen. Of course we are going to have the SoFi earnings report later this month. As for some technical analysis we're going to look at the same names again. So here, Alphabet, we closed out the week at $357. So it's defending the 357 zone represents a highly structural constructive pause accumulate on any minor dips towards the rising 100 floor. Next trigger is a daily close above 360. And I did add here a couple of extra uh data points in case someone's interested. Moving on to Rocket Lab. Rocket Lab is one where the price again crashed down $100. Uh, didn't hold, which is the one that we've seen before. It didn't hold. Closed out the week at $81. We should be looking at the mid70s right now, which is exactly what I'm looking at. Mid70s, maybe low 70s. If we get the chance in order to again buy more shares, although I did already buy a small batch at around $80, $81. As for Axon, Axon, I mean, went from $390, $400 all the way to 600, over 600 in record time. So, right now, we are experiencing a small pullback, which is healthy because this thing really went up in a straight line. So, a small pullback here is healthy. Am I willing to add right now already? Honestly, it is quite expensive. Even when we looked at our DCF, 565 is quite expensive. So I'm willing to wait a little bit more in order for that name to cool off even more. As for SoFi, so last week 18.24, this week 1878. So we are now back above some important points. Although the most important one here, of course, as you know, is the $22 one. Look, if we can continue to make our way towards maybe $ 19, $20 or so going into the earnings report, which I mean based on some macro and geopolitical events right now, it might not happen, but who knows? We still have some time until the what is it? 28th of July. Then yeah, maybe on a very good print and guidance, we can reclaim $22 and continue back above it. But right now, definitely again some more positive momentum with regards to the stock. Same here with Marcado Libé. Already last week we've had some positive momentum. Now even more with $1,852. Sorry. As well, we could continue to go even higher to go above this part right here. $1,926 simple moving average the 200 day one. As for Meta, it's been a couple of weeks where Meta was actually here in the red warning, no support, nothing, right? 550, 582. And then finally this week of course we're going to talk about that $669. So so above here the weekly 100 the daily 50 here as well. This is very good momentum with regards to meta. If you now say oh it has gone up too quickly then I guess look at 635 640 although even here at $670 it is very much undervalued. This is a $900 stock today in my opinion. As for Uber, it did go up a tiny bit over the past couple of days, but here as well, we have some more bullish momentum with regards to Uber. The low70s was an accumulation zone. Right now, it is having a little bit of momentum. I would like to see it back above $80. As for new, same thing as last week. I would like to see this thing back above $14 because then then we're really going to get more momentum and going to $15 should be should be much easier. Last one here and that's Netflix. Now of course Netflix has the earnings report coming up. So right now, yes, it is a bit in a bad spot. Although low7s in my opinion is a good accumulation zone. But yes, since we do have an earnings report over the next couple of days, then just wait, get your answers and then you can decide. But what about if the stock does shoot back up to 80 bucks or more? Okay, then it goes back up. At least at least you don't have that downward pressure. If it goes back up, that means that what they said during the report and call is actually good. And even at 80 bucks, I don't think it's quite an expensive name to add, especially if you're looking for names that have nothing to do with the memory cycle, the AI cycle, semiconductors, etc. Now, we did have some things that were mentioned about Netflix this week. So, Netflix is actively testing ad supported channels and bundled subscriptions as standard viewer engagement softens. Direct TV viewership market share has fallen to a 12-month low, proving that retaining modern audience attention is getting tougher. And so maybe that's one of the reasons why the stock has been under pressure. We've talked about the reasons of oh maybe they're looking to acquire another big studio. But I think maybe this right here could be one of the reasons. If there is the earnings report and they suddenly they say look we are still growing but watch hours is actually down we are maybe seeing a little bit more churn or something like that that could of course impact the stock negatively but all in all the long-term trajectory I think for Netflix right now what we've seen is them of course increasing more and more of the prices over the years but I do think as the ads become more successful for Netflix because remember ads that business is going to be worth billions of dollars high margin dollars for Netflix and if they are seeing this as a huge success then yes eventually you're going to have an average price that that is quite afford well quite affordable maybe attractive and that could be the thing for Netflix to grow more and more I do think that yes pushing more into sports live events live programming things like that is of course a big positive for the long-term success of a Netflix and of course making good movies and TV shows that everybody likes not hates. I think that's the most important. Now moving on to the portfolio part here and then we'll talk about some company specific news. The PayPal bull spreads still the same. It's it's one for December 2028. Nothing has changed there with regards to the core position. So, I used to own shares. Now I own call option, a $60 call option for January 2028, which is extremely safe right now. Of course, it's not the cheapest one out there, but to me it's it's quite safe. I could have taken 70, could have taken 80 as well, but right now I chose this. I might, if the stock is still under pressure, I might buy another 100 shares or so and then sell covered calls on those shares to collect a premium. But right now, this is what we did. As for the rest of the portfolio, Nebus still number one here, 19.5% of the portfolio. We have AMD close to 10%. Then we have SoFi here also closer to 10%. Google, Rocket Lab, Meta is number six, Oscar Health, DLO, Rubric, Micron, Robin Hood, Uber, New Axon, Shift 4 is still here and it's actually holding around $50. Then we do have Netflix, Palunteer, Reddit, couple of shares of Nvidia now. And this is actually the cash position is now very small 1.25% of the portfolio. Why is that? because I did buy I did already purchase well I did increase it yet again so another 20 shares of Rocket Lab so just a 4.4% increase. Why is that? Cuz I sold some shares a while ago at a higher price. Now I'm accumulating more and more in order to get it back at just a lower a lower price. Of course, ideally it goes to the low70s and I buy even more. And yes, and I even bought an extra 10 shares of Nebuse. It's not a lot. Nebus is already quite big. Just a 1.92% increase here at $195 for Nebus. It was down 35% from the highs. So I said to myself, you know what, I'll take a couple of shares under $200. And if we go even lower, 180, 170. If it happens, I don't know if it will, but if it does, then yes, even if it is such a big position for me, I might continue to increase it. Why? Well, it's quite simple. One, yes, I'm up significantly, but the most important part to me here is that well, I do still think that this can become an even bigger winner for me, right at a micron is now 982% gain for me. But I do think that a Nebus dollar-wise, of course, it's it's much much bigger, but percentage- wise, we are still a long way from a hundred billion dollar company, from a $200 billion company. And I do think we can reach that over the next couple of years. And yes, this might also mean that I might start to consolidate some positions in the future. As you know, I'm not married to any of these names. Even the names where I thought, okay, this might look good, right? A shift for on paper was extremely undervalued. I'm down 28%. But down 28% to me does not mean, oh, I cannot be selling this position. Right? I'll even take the extreme example here. Even if I'm looking at at a Micron or at a Netflix or whatever, if I feel that my money can be put into other names right here and and it makes sense to me, then I'll do it. Just because I own a position doesn't mean I cannot change it, close it, and allocate money elsewhere. And so with regards to Nebus, it it is a super high conviction name, which is why we have done so well. I think many of us that have I mean a lot of you have listened to the first Nebus video which was probably one of the first ones on on YouTube about the company and since then the execution has been excellent and if we were to listen to well an executive's comments although maybe it might be a slip but if it's true then even today it's extremely cheap. We have here the chief revenue officer of Nebus which is of course having a a little interview in front of an IN stand or board or whatever and and listen to what he has to say. >> Amazing. Okay, as we close out, what are you most looking forward to in the next 12 months? >> The next 12 months in AI is an eternity. I mean, I have been at Nebas for 12 months, actually 13 months. And if you look back 13 months ago, it was a completely different company. So the next 13 months is talking about the tens of billions that are being generated in Nebius revenue and the extraordinary traction they were we're gaining with not only the phenomenal AI natives that we're working with but also making our way to scale enterprise and big brand adoption and being able to expand our solution set from the model training that people are doing today into the inferencing that we started to offer and into agentic workloads. So 13 months from now, we could be looking at a Nebuse that generates tens of billions of dollars in revenue. Now I I I'm not I don't know if that's what he really wanted to say. Maybe he was talking about ARR or something like that, but tens of billions of dollars in revenue 12 13 months from now, I'll take it. Because currently, if we look at what the analysts are projecting for fiscal 26,3 let's call it $4 billion in revenue. Fiscal 27, 11.4 billion, which is the the year basically where he said tens of billions of dollars. Is he going to say tens of billions of dollars when they're only going to generate 11.4 billion? I don't know. Maybe that's why I'm saying maybe exit ARR for them. Because if we look at fiscal 28, we're here at $21.8 billion in revenue. So let's say we only take this number right here, $21.8 billion in revenue in fiscal 2028. Right now, we are a $55.7 billion company. So we're not even trading at three times sales for that fiscal year. Now, of course, you're now using pricing metrics for fiscal years that are 2 and 1/2 years out. Yeah. Okay, maybe that's a bit aggressive, but still 21, maybe it's going to be 22, maybe it's going to be way more than that and you're at $55.7 billion in market cap today. That's what I'm saying. This could be if let's say you want to be really aggressive and you put here a 10x multiple on a price to sales for that fiscal year, that's a $200 billion company. That's still a 4x around 4x from today. Of course, execution is key and well, they've been executing quite well. Moving on to the rest here, Meta, and then we'll look at Netflix and what the market is looking for. So, Meta for me, as you know, it's it's now quite a big position. It's a huge position in my retirement portfolio. In this one, it's still 5.4% of the portfolio, up 20.8%. I do think that I think 12 18 months from now, we're going to see this being up around 100%. That's just my prediction. Now with Meta, what has happened? Well, what has happened is two things. One, reports indicate that Meta plans to double its compute capacity in 2027, this does not suggest a year-over-year doubling of capex as much of the spend will be incurred beforehand. And while the 2027 capex growth rates are highly likely to decelerate compared to 2026, which I think is going to be normal across the board, the core that is going to happen over the next couple of weeks will define exactly how massive the ultimate run rate remains. And this of course is important because of the reports of oh the meta cloud business that means that they've overspent, overbuilt, blah blah blah. Well, not really. M because if that was the case, why would the report suggest that they plan to double the compute capacity in 2027? Well, Meta's entry into the public cloud renting is driven by highly compelling pricing terms from cloud providers, making external capacity too good to resist. Now you could say yeah but if it's so useful for your internal business and workloads why why do this well I think meta is in a good position where they can do both right they can say that maybe in the short run we are going to create this so-called meta cloud business segment because the margins are so high and then over the longer run maybe maybe this might become a smaller business but hey if that's extremely success successful super high margins, why not continue to do this? Because this could then fund the other expansions that are for internal use. And then the other reason why the stock was up so much is of course Muspark 1.1. So the model been performing quite well. Zuck was suddenly tweeting on X. Alex Wang was also tweeting. So they're quite comfortable with the performance of that model. And I think that's again just a a small introduction of what will happen. And even when you look at the benchmarks, oh, they're not beating the benchmarks across the board or beating the best of the best models, but hey, they're doing this at an affordable price. Plus, they're really focused on the agentic side of it all. Of course, another big positive of having your own very, very good model is that you depend way less on third-party models. So things can become cheaper for you. And if your model is so good and you can offer cheaper tokens, especially cheaper tokens when the output is still very very good or maybe even as good as Antropic or OpenAI or Grock or whatever, then you are in a pretty pretty good spot. And for Meta, of course, they have the distribution, which means that if they feel, and we've been talking about this before, if they feel that their model is becoming very very good, they can start to sell more and more services, whether it's for advertisers, marketing agencies or super users on its app in its ecosystem. People are going to pay for a monthly subscription. Moving on to new new holdings. Son new received approval to operate as a multiple banking institution in Mexico, gaining identical permissions as legacy incumbents. This license unlocks crucial cost and liquidity advantages, combining regulatory parity with new's native agile digital stack. The move deepens structural cost advantages, paving the way to replicate new highly profitable Brazilian growth engine. We've been talking about new more and more. Of course, we've been talking about new since it was $345$5 or so, but more recently, the market has of course cared about, oh, new is willing to expand in the United States, and so they're going for to forget about their core markets. Clearly, clearly that's not the case. As for the rest here, Quickfire, SoFi, June web traffic surge 32% year-over-year. Uber did pass the EU expansion strategy which allows them to probably focus a lot more on the full control of delivery hero. Apple did increase spend with Broadcom. AWS and Warner Brothers are building a new joint at platform. Rubric launches on AWS EU sovereign cloud and Whimo is adding four new cities to deployment map. As for Netflix, the upcoming earnings report, the market is looking for $ 122.58 billion in revenue, EPS of around 79 cents. And as you can see, last quarter that was a miss with regards to a free cash flow. Well, you will see already the big difference here. Free cash flow is expected to come around $2.61 billion, but the range here is surprisingly big. Now, what did Netflix tell us 3 months ago? They expect revenue to increase by 13.5% to reach 12.57 billion. Operating income of $4.1 billion, operating margin 32.6%, net income of $3.3 billion, diluted earnings per share of 78. And yes, they did say that they remain well on track to reach $3 billion in advertising revenue this year. That's 2x increase yearover-year. Now, Netflix, as you can see, over the past 12 months, the stock is down 41.8 8% is experiencing a draw down of around 42.4%. Year to date, it's down 19.3% or experiencing around a draw down of 32%. Now, the draw down, of course, at first it was, oh, they're going to acquire Warner Brothers, they're paying a huge premium, etc., etc. Then it didn't happen. stock actually went back up and then it went back down because again maybe it's the data points that suggest that maybe fewer people are watching Netflix or maybe it's because the market thinks like oh maybe they wanted to buy Roku although there is no evidence to suggest that they did want to buy Roku or maybe they did want to buy Lionsgate although Netflix said that they didn't look at it so a lot of rumors we want answers but this is a $39 billion company trading at a forward PE of 22.1 times price to free cash flow 26.3 times very profitable still growing in an extremely good position in the market that they're in the advertising business is growing quite rapidly and I and I do think that this is a company where couple of years down the line you're going to say oh this was actually quite cheap at these prices because let's face it I do feel like everyone has Netflix at home now of course Some still manage to share the same account. But yeah, is this a default thing that every household will have? Maybe. Is piracy back on the rise? Most definitely. It's the fault of all of these companies, but it is what it is. But yeah, I I do still think that Netflix is a very good company trading at a good price. Finishing it off here with the World Cup. Unfortunately, we're almost at the end of the tournament. We have France against Spain, England against Argentina. I think France reaches the final. I think England reaches as well, but you never know with Argentina, with Messi, and some would say with the referee, with the VAR. In some occasions, I would 100% 100% agree that some of the calls have been quite ridiculous. But France, Spain, Spain isn't that good. I'm sorry to my Spanish viewers, but even against Belgium, first half you were dominant. Second half, not really. Stupid mistake by Lmens, but it is what it is. Plus, France is just too good if we're being honest. England, Argentina, I do think is going to be a feisty feisty game. So, we'll see. I I think France England and unfortunately I think maybe France wins it, but I would I would love to see it come home. As for the rest, we have Yanick Ser that wins his second consecutive Wimbledon crown. Congratulations to him. We have Conor McGregor with an unfortunate an unfortunate injury. Was he injured before? Was it injured? I don't know. It seems to be the first kick. And it is unfortunate because I was quite excited to see this, but it is what it is. Patty the baddy, he did something that I guess very few did predict. Finished it off quite quickly. So, both fights could have been an Instagram reel or a YouTube short. And so all in all, that's about it for me in today's video. I will continue to add to companies that I believe will become much much bigger in the future or companies that are just trading at ridiculous prices. Yes, sometimes I will add cash. We're now entering the earning season and as you know, I do like to have a bit more cash when we enter the earning season because I do think that this one is going to be quite interesting. So that's about it. See you all in the next one. Bye-bye.