If You’re an Nvidia Shareholder… Get Ready! $NVDA

If you own Nvidia, this year has probably driven you a little crazy. The business is absolutely on fire. Sales are exploding, but the stock price, it's not growing as fast as it did in the past. And the whole time you've watched AMD, Intel, Micron, and SanDisk all rocket to brand new all-time highs, up hundreds of percent in the last 6 months. Investors in those stocks have been making some serious cash while Nvidia shareholders just sit here and wait. So, everyone's asking the same question. When does Nvidia finally take off again as well? Well, Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO, just said something that could be a massive hint about what happens next. But, I'm not going to hype you up and leave it there. I'm going to walk you through both sides, the reward and the risk, because if you're going to own this stock, you need to understand what you're getting into and most importantly, the right price to pay. So, real quick, if you're new here, let's talk about what Nvidia even is. Back in 1993, three engineers sat down in a Denny's restaurant and started a company to make better graphics for video games. That company was Nvidia. For years, they were the chip m that made your games look absolutely amazing. But then something huge happened. It turned out those same chips were perfect for powering artificial intelligence. And suddenly, Nvidia went from gamer favorite to the most important company in the entire AI boom. Running the whole thing is Jensen Hang, one of the three original founders sitting in that Denny's. And honestly, the guy looks and acts like a rock star. He has that signature black leather jacket. He's treated like celebrity at events. He's signing women's bras, people lining up for selfies and autographed like he is the band. Now, here's what turned Nvidia into the most talked about company on the market. When the AI boom hit, every big tech company suddenly needed Nvidia's chips, and not a few of them. We're talking thousands at a time. Orders came in faster than Nvidia could even build them. And the business went vertical. Revenue went from 16 billion back in 2021 to 253 billion, guys. That was in less than 5 years. The stock did something even more incredible. It ran from $10 a share to as high as $236 per share. And Nvidia became one of the most valuable companies on the entire planet worth nearly $5 trillion. For a while there, guys, Nvidia wasn't just winning. It was the story of the market. So, let's talk about why so many people are still incredibly excited about Nvidia. There are three big bull cases. So stick with me here. Case number one, the AI buildout is just getting started right now. The biggest companies on Earth, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, they are spending unbelievable amounts of money building AI. And here's the thing, the Bulls believe we're still in the early innings. AI is going from simple chat bots to something called agentic AI. basically AI that can do the whole job on its own, not just answer questions. That takes way more computing power. On top of that, entire countries are now building their own AI systems. Every one of them needs chips. And guess who sells the best chips in the planet? You guessed it. Bold case number two. Nvidia keeps lapping the competition. Most companies release a new product every few years. Nvidia is constantly releasing new products. Their Blackwell chips are already monsters. And the next one called Vera Rubin is expected to be an even bigger leap. Because they move so fast, competitors never really have a chance to quite catch up. And that lets Nvidia charge massive premium pricing, keeping profit margins above 75%, which means for every chip they sell. 75% of it, 75 cents of it goes to profit before overhead and taxes. That is almost unheard of for a hardware company, but a lot more common for software businesses. Bull case number three, it's hard to leave Nvidia. This is the big one. Nvidia isn't just a chip, it's the whole system. Their software called CUDA is what programmers have built on for many years. Switching away from it is like trying to change the language your entire company speaks. And even if Arrival builds a great chip, they still often need Nvidia's networking gear to wire all of those chips together in a data center. So Nvidia wins on both ends there. If you put all of that together, the bullcase is simple. massive demand, a lead that's very difficult for anybody to close, and customers who can't walk away easily. That is called a sticky customer. Now, before we get into the bare cases, you need to hear what the man running Nvidia has actually been saying all year because Jensen Huang has not been quiet in 2026. He's called this moment, and I quote, the biggest infrastructure buildout in history. And then he said the wild part. We're only a few hundred billion dollars in with trillions still to be built. Trillions, guys. And at Nvidia's own conference, he put it even more bluntly. Demand has gone parabolic. His reason AI can now do real valuable work on its own. So everyone's racing to buy more. Now, of course, he's a CEO. It's his job to be excited. So let let's not just take his word for it. Let's break down whether the numbers actually back them up. And we're going to do that in just a few minutes. But before we look at those numbers, let's flip this all the way around. Because if you're going to own this stock, you can't just listen to the good stuff. Here are the three biggest worries that the bears have. Bear case number one. What if the big spenders slow down? Right now, a handful of giant companies are spending fortunes on Nvidia's chips. But here's the question the bears keep asking. Are those companies actually making money back on all that spending? It is a very common question that we ask on this channel because at some point the people writing those checks are going to need a return on their money. And if they don't get one, they're going to slow down. Watch for a change in how these companies talk. The moment you start hearing words like being more efficient or optimizing our spending, that's code for we're about to buy fewer chips. And Nvidia's whole story depends on them buying a lot more. Barecase number two. Nvidia's best customers are starting to build their own chips. This is the sneaky one, guys. About half of Nvidia's data center money comes from just a huge, huge customers. Companies like Google and Amazon. But here's the problem. Those same customers are now quietly building their own chips. So they don't have to keep paying Nvidia's premium prices. Think about that. Your biggest buyers are also trying to become your competitors. So if their homemade chips get good enough, Nvidia loses sales. But not only that, they lose the power to charge those juicy 75% margins that we talked about. And bare case number three, China and the government wild card. This is this one's out of Nvidia's control completely. The US government controls which chips Nvidia is allowed to sell to China and those rules keep on changing. Nvidia has been shifting chips away from China to fill orders elsewhere. But a sudden full-on ban would knock out a chunk of business overnight. You simply cannot predict it. And that uncertainty is a risk all by itself. So guys, those three were the other side. Slowing spending, customers turning into competitors, and government rules that nobody can forecast. Now, phenomenal business, real risks, which bring us to the only question that actually decides whether this is a good investment or not. Price versus value. So, let's take a look at Nvidia right now. What's the price of the business, guys? The price isn't the stock price, it's the market cap. That's the stock price multiplied by all the shares outstanding, which is a shade under 5 trillion right now. The next thing I always do is I go to that enterprise value, guys. It's lower than the market cap. That means this company has a great balance sheet. They have more cash on hand than debt they have to account for. That is phenomenal. It's very difficult for great balance sheet businesses to go under. Next, look at this cash flow. $119 billion last year. The last 5-year average is 49 billion. Lower than their net income. But as we know, they're spending a lot of money building out a lot of um factories and things like that so they can build more chips. So that doesn't worry me as much. Now one thing of concern, this price to sales ratio, it's almost 20. What does this mean? Well, this is a great way to compare companies. Guys, very high margin B businesses like Microsoft and Google, they sell for between 8 and 12 times sales. This is a premium at 19.6. But if the bulls are right and we're in the early innings of this massive boom, then their sales could jump up a lot. This might be okay. This might be fine at 19.6. Next, something I want to show you guys. Look at this bottom line profit margin. Their 10-year average is 52%. Their 5year is 54%. Their one year is 63%. Guys, this is after all overhead and taxes. That's a huge, huge percentage. Now, the question becomes, is this sustainable long-term? Because it wasn't even 50% 10 years ago. The average over the last 10 years is 52%. So this thing is on quite the run with major profitability because of that pricing power. If they can't keep that going, can you really assume this for a long even if it can keep going for a while? If it's not for the indefinite future, how do you justify this? Guys, look at this. Three-year revenue growth 114% per year. Not total per year. 5year 67.5% per year. 10-year 47.6% per year with actually very little in acquisitions. Only $16 billion in acquisitions over the last five years. And guys, the biggest metric, look at that return on capital. This says this business is a high quality business and that matters. You want to find companies with good returns on capital. It means they manage their money well and it's also a quality metric on top of being a quantitative metric. It says this is a high quality business. Now, our our members of our community have this as a buy right now. So, let's go to our eight pillars. So, guys, we have six checks and two X's. What are the two X's? 5-year PE, 5-year price of free cash flow. Now, these are a little misleading because their free cash flow is up so much over the last 5 years. It's still expensive. It's still 41 times one year free cash flow and 31 times earnings. But this number, these two numbers here are a little misleading. Everything else a beautiful check mark. Returns on capital are high. They've bought back some shares which isn't necessarily a good thing if the price is if the price is too high. But revenue, net income, and cash flow are all up over the last 5 years and very low debt. This is great. I love it when these are the X's because if we prove if we sit there and say, "Hey, it's a little expensive." All we have to do is sit back and wait and wait for the right price. Now, let's take a look at analyst estimates here at right before we go look at what the stock should should be worth according to my assumptions. Guys, look at this growth. They have $469 in profit growing to $20 over the next four or five years. That is over 5x growth. And look at the revenue. Analysts are very optimistic from 213 billion all the way to a trillion dollar in the next four or five years. Guys, analysts here are basically saying this thing is not going to stop. That's what they're saying here. The question is, is that right or not? You know, it's harder on companies that are newer or in some bigger growth phase like this growth has come out of nowhere. Whenever that happens, you've got to question, is this a permanent growth or is it something that might be temporary while things go to settle? So, let's go to our stock analyzer tool. This is the tool we use to figure out what's the company worth based on the assumptions I'm going to put in and what price do I need to pay based on the return that I want. So I'm doing a 10-year analysis. Now guys, I'm sure a lot of people are going to disagree with me and that's the point of having the software and this is the reason why it's used as the number one tool in our software because you can make your own assumptions. I did 10 15 and I jumped up to 25% revenue growth for the next 10 years. Guys, I know this is absurdly low compared to what analysts think. I get that. Next, profit margin. I did 35, 45, and 55%. Again, very low. PE. What's the PE I would assign to this company 10 years from now. Well, the market average is 15 or 16, but I want to go higher for good companies, lower for bad ones. This is clearly a good company based on the returns on capital, based on its growth potential, based on its dominance. I put in 20, 24, and 28. And then finally, I am putting in a 9% no margin of safety return. And the reason being is I want to sit here and say, okay, what's this company worth? What's the intrinsic value? So, I just made some of these very reasonable assumptions on Nvidia with our own stock analyzer. In a second, I'm going to show you what that number came back as. So, guys, remember how this whole video started to begin with? Nvidia shareholders sitting there watching AMD, Intel, Micron, SanDisk, all rip and rip viciously to all new highs, making people some serious money while they just waited. That feeling, watching everyone else win while you're stuck guessing, that's the feeling that this entire community and tool was built to end. Because here's the truth. The people who make the real money aren't the ones that are chasing a stock after it's already run. They're the ones who did the math early, knew their price, and were ready when the deal showed up. And it's exactly what you get inside the Everything Money community. You pull up any stock you want, Nvidia or the next one that nobody's talking about yet. You punch in your own assumptions and in a matter of seconds, the analyzer hands you your buy price, the price where you'd actually be getting a deal. Then you build your watch list and you wait. You're calm while everyone else panics or chases. And let's be real about the money, guys. Membership costs less than most people lose on a single bad emotional buy. In fact, those who drink coffee, which is pretty much everybody out there, spend more far more per month on their coffee than the cost of the software that's going to change your life. And the one time that you don't overpay for a hot stock, the one time you catch a great business on sale because you were ready, this has already paid for itself many times over. That's the return that actually matters. Better decisions for the rest of your investing life. So, while everyone else is guessing on what Nvidia is worth, if you get access to the tools, the community and education, you will know how to do this yourself. Thousands of investors are in there doing this with us every single day, every single week. Live streams, chat, they request stocks for exclusive content. So, guys, what's that worth to you? I'm sure it's worth several dollars per day. But guess what? For $7 in seven days, you can try it out and you'll see why over 70% of people who try our 7-day trial end up buying it for the rest of the year and beyond. So, let me show you the numbers here on what Stock Analyzer gave me for Nvidia's pricing. The stock price is currently at 204. I have a low price of 115, a high price of 738, a middle price of 250. Guys, I'm actually impressed by this. I actually thought it would be lower. It's better than I thought. Now, the question I have for you is, did you like my assumptions? Based on my middle assumptions, I'm seeing an 11.4% return based on today's price. But I'm not going to lie to you guys, there will be a lot of volatility on the stock and never ever buy a stock because my numbers show out green. We're here to teach a process that then you can apply to the your own companies and your own membership. Now guys, one thing I always talk about in this channel, I love the Morgan Howell quote. Personal finance is more personal than finance. In our stock analyzer, we did our 9% return, but that's to get the market number, the intrinsic value. For me personally, my for me to go buy an individual stock, I want a much higher return. In the past, it was 12%. But now that I've understood more about my current financial situation and I've changed the way in which I look at money, for me, I only want to buy individual stocks if the return is huge. So for me, I want a 15% return minimum. Now, you might think to yourself, Paul, that's egregious. Yeah, it is. But that's okay. I only want to swing at the big fat pitches. So, I already did my 9% here. Let's change this now to my 15%. And guys, remember because mine's 15% does not mean yours should be 15%. It's going to make my my price a lot lower. It doesn't mean that I think Nvidia is worth less money. It's just for me, I like to have a larger margin of safety now because I have real estate, I have businesses, I have all the things going on upstairs. For me to really own a stock, I want to get an outsized return. So, I look at this and I think, okay, 15% return. I hit the analyze button. Everything else above it stayed exactly the same. But now I have a low price of 73, high price of 448, and a middle price of 154. Now, for those of you out there who might also be looking at this and thinking, you know what, I I have Nvidia stock. So, these are for people who have Nvidia stock and you've made a killing and you think, you know, maybe Michael Bur's right. Maybe these chips are going to have a big fall and the price is going to go down. There's a way to sell your stock or keep it depending on what happens to the stock price. It's called selling a covered call and it's something that I do on my stock. So, what this means is I own shares and I want to sell my shares to somebody at a future date at a higher price. So, what that might mean is let's say Nvidia is at $27 a share. Let's say you think it's worth 150. So, you're like, "Well, it might be overpriced right now, but it's not overpriced by so much that I want to get rid of it." But if it goes higher, I will gladly get rid of it. What you could do is go to your Nvidia, go to our options chain, click a date in the future. So, let's say we pick September 18th of 2026. So, I'm going to go to the call section, and let's say you want to get rid of the stock at $250 per share. So, what this means is if on September 18th of 2026, and it could be before the stock goes above 250, you're going to sell it at 250. What's somebody going to pay you for that? They're going to pay you $3.37 per share for that, right? That's going to add, if you did it over and over again, 8.8% return annually to your stock. So, one of two things is going to happen. Again, if it ends up above 250, you're going to lose your shares, but you keep $3.37. So, it's like you sold the stock for 25337. If the stock finishes on that date of September 18th below 250, you still keep the shares and you keep your 337. If you want to be even more aggressive, go to 220. Somebody's going to pay you $10.39. So, it's like you sold the stock for $230.39 or whatever. And that return jumps up to 27% annualized if you did it over and over again, not just for two more months. So, I threw a lot at you there, but the key here is to understand that you can use options to sell stock and buy stocks and be paid for that. But you've got to do it for the right reasons. Here, what I'm suggesting is if you have the company, you're kind of like, I'm okay if I sell it, but I also don't want to sell it too. You're kind of stuck in the middle. But if it went to 230, you'd be like, "Hey, I'll gladly sell at 230." That might be your option there. And these are extra ways in which our channel is different in which it shows you how you can make a little bit extra money by matching options to your long-term strategy. So guys, Nvidia is incredible. It is not going away anytime soon. It's got a great balance sheet and a lot of potential in the future. The question is, is this revenue level and profit level a permanent plateau and going up from here, or will there be a pullback? Now, guys, there's one more stock that I need you to see. It's one that I think could be a bigger opportunity in the market right now than Nvidia. Click this video right here to watch it. Thank you for your time.