Zooming out shows this is a buying opportunity in AI ecosystem, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies

>> ALL RIGHT, WE'RE BACK ON THE BELL. AS YOU CAN SEE THERE, WE'RE DOWN ABOUT 400 POINTS APPROACHING THE SESSION LOWS. NOW THE TECH TRADE IS FRONT AND CENTER YET AGAIN TODAY AS THE CHIP STOCKS SHOW NEW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS. HERE TO DISCUSS WHAT'S NEXT FOR TECH AND BEYOND IS 314 RESEARCH CO-FOUNDER WARREN PAES. WARREN THIS HAS BEEN THE AGAIN, THE CENTRAL FOCAL POINT OF THE TRADE IN TECHNOLOGY. SEMICONDUCTOR SPECIFICALLY. HAS ENOUGH VALUE BEEN ERASED FROM THE RECENT HIGHS TO MAKE THIS A MORE ATTRACTIVE PLACE THAT PEOPLE ACTUALLY WANT TO NIBBLE AT RIGHT NOW. >> YEAH. THANKS FOR HAVING ME. I MEAN, YOU NEVER KNOW IF THIS IS LIKE THE BOTTOM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEWS COMING OUT OF THE K THREE MODEL COMING OUT OF CHINA. BUT I THINK WHEN YOU ZOOM OUT THAT YES, WE'VE HAD A NICE ROTATION AND A NICE RESET FROM THE MOMENTUM TRADE THAT REALLY CARRIED US PRIOR TO JULY. AND THAT MOMENTUM HAS BECOME SYNONYMOUS WITH SEMIS AND WITH HARDWARE. AND SO SEMIS IN HARDWARE DOWN ALONG WITH THE MOMENTUM FACTOR THE FIRST HALF OF JULY. I MEAN OUR BASE CASE IS THAT PROBABLY LAST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF WEEKS OR SO. BUT WHEN YOU ZOOM OUT, YEAH, I THINK THIS WILL BE PERCEIVED AS A GOOD BUYING OPPORTUNITY. >> ALL RIGHT. SO THAT'S PLAYING OUT SOMEWHAT TODAY. IF YOU LOOK AT THE ROUNDHILL MEMORY ETF, TICKER DRAMDRAM STARTED OFF THE DAY SHARPLY LOWER AND IS NOW STILL UP ABOUT ONE AND THREE QUARTERS IN TRADING TODAY. PEOPLE DID BUY THE DIP. THE QUESTION IS WAS IT SHORT COVERING? WAS IT SOME FUNDAMENTAL VALUE PICKERS? IT'S PROBABLY A MIX OF BOTH. BUT DOES THIS THEN MEAN THAT PEOPLE ARE STILL IN THIS KIND OF MUSCLE MEMORY BUY DIP MENTALITY FOR CHIP STOCKS IN PARTICULAR? >> YEAH, I THINK THAT YES, PROBABLY. BUT WE NEED MORE THAN ONE DAY. IT'S ENCOURAGING TO SEE A REVERSAL LIKE THIS. I THINK THAT THE RELEASE OF THE OPEN SOURCE MODEL, THE LATEST OPEN SOURCE MODEL OUT OF CHINA, K THREE, IS A IS REALLY WHAT'S WHAT ROILED THE MARKETS THIS MORNING. AND SO WHEN I LOOK AT THAT, WHEN OUR TEAM LOOKS AT THAT, WE SEE THAT IT'S REALLY POTENTIALLY. AND WE NEED TO TEST THIS MODEL AND RUN IT THROUGH OUR OWN INTERNAL BENCHMARKING TO KNOW WHAT WE'RE DEALING WITH. BUT IF THE REPORTS ARE CORRECT, THEN IT'S REALLY NEGATIVE FOR THE FRONTIER LABS, FOR THE FRONTIER MODELS HERE IN AMERICA. AND THEN THE COUNTERPARTY SOURCE LABS OR THE HYPERSCALERS FARTHER DOWN THE CHAIN ARE SEMIS AND HARDWARE. SO IT KIND OF MAKES SENSE. YOU KNOW, FIRST THIS MORNING WAS A SELL EVERYTHING KIND OF WAVE. AND IT MAKES SENSE TO SEE SEMIS AND SOME OF THESE MEMORY NAMES COME BACK LATER IN THE DAY. THEY HAVE BEEN BEAT UP A LITTLE BIT. I WORRY WHEN IT COMES TO THE INDEX LEVEL, IF THE WEAKNESS IS NOW JUST GOING TO ROTATE OVER TO THE HYPERSCALERS, AND THAT'S WHY I SAY WE NEED MORE THAN ONE DAY. WE NEED TO SEE IF THIS ISN'T JUST A ROTATION, BECAUSE THERE'S BEEN SUCH A STRONG PUSH AND PULL BETWEEN SEMIS AND HARDWARE AND INTO HYPERSCALERS, YOU SELL THOSE AND BUY THE HYPERSCALERS. ARE WE JUST UNWINDING THAT A BIT WITH THIS THIS NEGATIVE NEWS FROM THIS MODEL OUT OF CHINA? YOU NEED MORE THAN ONE DAY TO DETERMINE THAT. BUT YOU KNOW, ALL THINGS EQUAL, I LIKE SEEING THESE MEMORY STOCKS START TO REBOUND LATE IN THE DAY. >> THE RECENT VERSION, ONE OF THE TECH PAIRS TRADE WAS OVER THE COURSE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS, SELL SOFTWARE STOCKS TO BUY CHIP STOCKS. NOW IT'S FLIPPED AROUND TO THE SELL HYPERSCALERS TO BUY THE CHIP STOCKS. BECAUSE THE HYPERSCALERS FREE CASH FLOW IS GOING TO FLOAT FROM THEMSELVES OVER TO THE CHIP COMPANIES. HOW MUCH DO YOU LOOK AT THIS PARTICULAR MOMENT VERSUS THE DEEP TECH MOMENT AND SAY TO YOURSELF, THE BOUNCE BACK WE SAW ON SOME CHIP NAMES, SOME OF THE PRODUCERS THAT WEREN'T NAMED NVIDIA ACTUALLY CAUGHT A BID BECAUSE OF THAT. DURING THE LAST TIME WE SAW THIS HAPPEN. IS SOMETHING SIMILAR GOING TO PLAY OUT NOW OR IS THE MARKET IN SEMIS STRUCTURALLY DIFFERENT TO WHAT IT WAS DURING THE FIRST DEEP SEEK MOMENT? >> OUR BASE CASE IS THAT WE WILL FOLLOW A DEEP SEEK LIKE PATH OUT OF THIS. THAT IS THE BASE CASE. AGAIN, I THINK THAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO TEST THE MODEL. AND I THINK ALSO WE WANT TO WATCH OUR, OUR OUR REAL TIME INDICATORS. SO WE WATCH WE TRACK GPU AVAILABILITY FOLLOWING DEEP SEEK, FOR INSTANCE, OUR GPU AVAILABILITY DATA. AT 314, IT PLUNGED AND IT GAVE US A LOT OF CONVICTION TO STEP IN AND BUY THAT DIP. AND OUR BASE CASE, EVEN THOUGH GPU AVAILABILITY HAS BEEN LOW, IS THAT IT'S GOING TO IT'S GOING TO GO LOWER AFTER THIS MODEL RELEASES, EVERYBODY SCRAMBLES TO TEST IT. THE OTHER THING YOU WANT TO SEE IS GPU RENTAL RATES. HOW HOW DO THEY REACT? AND SO OUR AGAIN, OUR BASE CASE IS THAT THEY'LL BE ROBUST AND STRONG AS THEY'VE BEEN THIS YEAR. AND IF THAT HAPPENS, I THINK THAT'S A REALLY GOOD SIGN FOR FOR SEMIS IN FOR HARDWARE AND FOR THE ENTIRE OVERALL ECOSYSTEM, MAYBE EXCLUDING THE LABS AGAIN. BUT EVEN WITH THE LABS, I DON'T KNOW THAT IT'S A DISASTER YET FOR THEM UNTIL WE TEST THE MODEL. SO I DO EXPECT A DEEP SEA TYPE OF