The Real Reason Steve Weiss Is Worried About Netflix

First of all, the time the Warner Brothers acquisition yet then the rumors of Lionsgate and now reselling other streaming subscriptions on their site is the talk. So, you only do that when when you see growth slowing down. It's not expensive, but the growth's not going to be there. So, I do have concerns going to the quarter. I didn't sell it for this quarter because I think the stock's pretty depressed and and it's and if you look at at the odds, the odds are more that it'll trade up because at this quarter usually bounce back the next, but it was more look, it's small enough position now, not been in a great position for me lately versus when I owned it last year and got out and came back. And I'm just, you know, hoarding capital cash right >> Give me a couple years, two, three years on this guys, please. Sentiment's crazy. It's incredible. >> Yeah. >> How sentiment has turned. You own it. >> We do. We bought it recently on the latest dip. You've been paid to buy these dips in the in this name. As Steve said, it is cheap. There's a valid concerns around saturation, competition, stickiness of their content, slowing subscriber growth, but let's not forget this company is expected to generate 15 billion in free cash flow this year. Okay? They have the lowest content spend per subscriber, which means they can dive into sports, they have the optionality to do that and drive more growth. They have been been incredible at engineering that and I'm willing to be patient to wait for that to happen. >> This is a number. Give me that chart back guys, please. The three year cuz this is to your example, I forgot what's we were talking about before, but the lower high risk, right? Trending lower, you get a little bit of a move up and then you start moving lower again. >> 300 million users still growing, driving more users, driving more content. I think they're going to be fine. >> If you take a look at the balance after last quarter, um um and when they did not get Warner, stock moved up. I don't know why it didn't hold there, frankly. It should have. >> Well, that's the the biggest, I guess, mystery in some respects, given what the narrative was when the bidding war was happening, that there was, I think, a better view from at least those in our orbit on this program that if they don't get the asset, it's better for the stock. >> Exactly. >> And it did jump. And then it was wiped. >> Yeah, and and and one of the reasons why I bought it was because you've got a you've got a debt-constrained competitor in in Paramount, right? We're seeing that. So, their their leverage is is significant, too significant for this industry. How much new content can they buy? >> Who was it yesterday? I can't remember either. Who who had the call that, you know, asking the question whether Disney should get out of the streaming business altogether? It used to be, you know, Disney can't compete if maybe nobody can compete with what Netflix has built. >> Yeah. >> They have the pricing power in the way that others don't, right? They they raise their prices, it has had no impact on the stock. At that moment, when the new when the news hits, there's there's no negative move in in Netflix when they when they raise prices. In fact, the stock generally goes up because we say on this program, in other words, well, they they're one of the few who has pricing power. >> Yeah. I mean, my market on the earnings report is 68, 70 on downside, 85 on the upside, up slightly more on the upside, but I just still got Apple. >> Netflix has lost market share over the last several years. The likes of Amazon, the likes of Apple TV, the likes of Paramount, that's just just >> Who who >> statistically factual. >> Who who are all >> Not all, but who many, as was just pointed out, are going to struggle with the investments in new content that they can make. >> Okay. It's a lot of lot