let's look at three companies today that could have some of that multibagger potential. The first one, Service Now, their ticker is NW.
Contexte
So with that checklist in mind, let's look at three companies today that could have some of that multibagger potential. The first one, Service Now, their ticker is NW.
Contexte
And third, guys, is Uber. And you already know this one. It is the app that gets you a ride across town and delivers dinner to your door.
Transcription Complète
What if I told you that a hated stock in the market just turned every $10,000 into 200,000 in only a few years? It actually did happen and most people who owned it still missed out on it. Today, I'm going to show you how these multibagger stocks get made and why most pretty much everyone makes the same mistake. And on top of that, I'm going to show you three companies that could be big multibagger opportunities going forward. Guys, let me start with Micron. Now, for most of its life, Micron was the kind of company that investors loved to ignore. It makes memory chips, which is a storage inside computers, phones, and data centers. And that business has always been famously up and down. It's called cyclical. When times were bad, memory chip chips got cheap, micron profit vanished, and the stock got crushed. At its lows, people called it boring, cyclical, and dead money. Nobody would want it. Then everything changed. The AI boom created a massive desperate hunger for memory. The exact stuff that Micron makes. And suddenly there wasn't enough of it to go around. Prices exploded, profits exploded, and the stock went absolutely vertical. From its beaten down lows, Micron climbed as much as 20 times in just a few short years. Now, here's the part that actually matters. The people who made that money were not the ones who bought Micron when it was exciting and on the news every single night. They're the ones who bought it when it was hated, when it was boring, when it was cheap, and they had the stomach to hold on with a longterm mindset. And that right there is the whole secret of buying 10 baggers that I want to unpack for you today. because we have plenty of community members who were buying Micron when it was trading at a significant discount to fair value and onetenth the price of where it was today. Our producer Tim was actually one of them. His cost basis was $66 on Micron. I don't want you thinking that Micron was some one in a million lightning strike because it can feel that way but it probably wasn't. Right here in our own community we have members who've landed big multibaggers of their own over the last few years. people who bought Meta back in November of 22 when it had crashed more than 70% and the whole world said Mark Zuckerberg had lost his mind. And now shares are up close to seven times from its lows. People who held Google when everyone swore AI chatbots would kill Google search. That's close to a fiveagger. People who bought Intel when it was beaten down and forgotten have crushed it. Look at Sprouts Farmers Market. Went from the $20 range to as high as $180. Even now, after falling 50%, it is still a 4x bagger. Now, some of our community members send screenshots of the positions they've held for years, up three, five, even 10 times. That's because they did the research. They understood what they owned. They knew what it was really worth. And then they had the patience, and that is the most important part, the patience to hold on while everyone around them panicked. So, this is real, and it is repeatable. The big question is how do they keep doing it and why does almost everyone else miss out on it? Now, here's a truth that surprises people. Multibaggers usually aren't that hard to find. They are incredibly hard to hold. Extremely difficult to actually capture the gains. Think about it. To ride a stock 10 or 20 times over, you have to sit through some absolutely gut-wrenching drops along the way. I cannot think of a stock that just went straight up. It goes up but with major fluctuations. Micron's climb was not a smooth lineup. It had scary stomach dropping plunges the entire way and that's normal. Almost every huge winner in history fell 50% or more at some point, often many times over. Amazon once fell more than 95% and still went on to become one of the greatest stocks of all time based on returns. Be honest with yourself. Do you really believe that you can hold on through that? Guys, I don't know if I could. Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett always point out that Birkshshire Hathway has fallen over 50% many times during their tenure. But that's when the opportunity was the best. And there's a second trap. It's even more common. Selling your winner way too early. Guys, I have fallen for this so many times. It's my biggest mistakes that I've made. You buy a great company, it doubles, and it feels so smart to lock in the gains. I used to say what I'm about ready to say and I now don't believe it. You can't go broke taking a profit. That's actually not technically true. And in fact, you're sacrificing so many more dollars by locking in that profit and taking in the gains. So, you sell. You watch it climb another five times over without you. Guys, I've done this and I've seen people ride a future giant to a quick double, feel like a genius, cash out, and then watch that same stock 10x from where they sold. Selling a wonderful still growing business just because the price went up is one of the most expensive habits on all of investing, but it is masked in the profit that you realize. So you feel warm and fuzzy. There's an old saying, you don't really find a 10bagger, you survive one. The hardest part is not the buying of the stock, it's sitting on your hands while the magic slowly happens. Guys, look at us. We live in a society driven by these driven by instant gratification. So the idea of waiting years and years and years to see the big gains, that is hard to do. That's hard for a lot of people. So in terms of seeing one, how do you actually spot it before it runs? One great playbook comes from a book called 100 Baggers by Chris Mayer, who we actually interviewed on this channel. He studied hundreds of stocks that went up 10, 20, even 100 times over, and he hunted for what they all had in common. Here are the traits I want you to burn into your memory. First one, strong growth. The company's sales and profits tend to be climbing and not just for a year, but steadily for many years in a row, often decades. Growth is the fuel that powers the whole thing. Number two, high returns on capital. In plain English, that means that when the company invests a dollar back into itself, it earns a great return on that money. The best businesses can take a dollar and turn it into 15, 20, 30% extra profit every single year and do it over and over. That is the engine that keeps on running. Number three, a long runway to reinvest. Guys, it's not just enough to get great returns one time. The company needs to be somewhere to keep putting that money to work at those same high returns. A company attacking a giant growing market has room to run like that for a very long time. and they tend to be smaller companies. This is what I talk about in the channel all the time. I always sit there and say, "How can Nvidia 100x from here? They're already a $5 trillion company. How can they 100x in the next 10 years become 500 trillion, even 20 years? What's the US economy worth?" That'd be just in and of itself, it's a hard pill to swallow versus a company that's a billion or two billion dollars. Yes, a lot of those companies will stay very stagnant or go to zero, but a few they could grow into those hundred billion dollar companies. That's a much easier pill to swallow. Number four, and this is really important and hard to quantify, strong management. You want smart, honest leaders, most likely the founders or those who own a big chunk of the company themselves where a large percentage of their net worth is attached to it. When the people running the business are also big owners, they think like owners, not like hired hands just collecting a paycheck. And number five, the one everyone absolutely underestimates, time and patience. A 10bagger does not happen in a year or even five years. Most of the time it takes often decades of simply holding on and letting it compound. Chris Mayer's single biggest lesson is that you have to be a patient holder. The math only works if you leave it alone and never interrupt the compounding. As Charlie Munger says, he said, "Our goal is to buy good assets and not interrupt the compounding unnecessarily." That's his big thing. Now, I want to add one rule of our own to the top of mayor's list because the heart of what we do here. The price you pay still matters. Even a perfect 10bagger candidate can be ruined if you buy it at an insane bubbleesque price and then wait a decade just to get back to even. So fitting this checklist is only step one. Step two is always the same question we ask about everything. What is it truly worth and what are they asking for it? And that's exactly why we run every one of these stocks through our stock analyzer. So with that checklist in mind, let's look at three companies today that could have some of that multibagger potential. The first one, Service Now, their ticker is NW. You may have never seen it, but giant companies run on it. It's the software platform that big organizations use to manage their work, their tech, their employees, their customer requests, and they do it all in one place. So before we run the numbers, let me give you both sides of the aisle real quick. The bullcase here is pretty straightforward. Every big company in the world is trying to figure out AI right now, and Service Now is becoming the control layer for all of it. They're the ones saying, "Hey, you want to deploy AI agents across your company? Great. We'll govern them. We'll secure them. We'll make sure they don't go rogue. And companies are paying up for that. Their AI product, now Assist, is already landing bigger and bigger deals. Clients are buying multiple AI products at once, and their revenue visibility is insane. They've got around $28 billion in backlog business, nearly double their annual revenue. That's two years of backlog. On top of that, they just made a big move into cyber security with almost an $8 billion acquisition that tripled their addressable market and the stock has pulled back hard from its highs. So, you're not paying the tippy top price anymore. But remember, just because something is cheaper does not mean that it's cheap. Now, their bare case, and you got to hear this, the biggest risk is actually AI itself. The same thing powering the bull case. If AI agents get good enough to handle IT tickets and workflow tasks without humans, companies might need fewer seats and Service Now charges per seat. So the very technology they're riding could undercut how they make money. On top of that, even after the pullback, this is not a cheap stock. It still trades at a premium. And then the elephant in the room, Microsoft, Amazon, these hyperscalers could just build their own governance and workflow tools and bundle them in. If that happens, Service Now's moat gets a lot thinner. So that's both sides. Now, let's see what the numbers actually say as we dive into it. First off, the price of the company is the market cap. Yes, I know the ticker price matters, but all the ticker price is is the market cap divided by the number of shares outstanding. Then I go to enterprise value. So it's 109 billion for the market cap, 116 billion for the enterprise value. That 7 billion difference is essentially their debt. Now guys, I'm going to show you something really awesome. Look at this free cash flow number. 4.6 billion last year, 3.1 a year for the last 5 years. This 7 billion debt is nothing. And now speaking of free cash flow, 4.6 and 3.1 respectively. Look at the net income. 1.76 in the last year, 1.17 over the last five. Free cash flow way higher than net income. So even though the PE is 62, the price of free cash flow is 23. Now for those of you who are new here, I want to explain this. Free cash flow is the life of the business. When free cash flow is greater than net income, that is a rare thing. And most people focus on the net income. So when you see the free cash flow being up, you got to say to yourself, people are going to miss out on this. They're going to see 62 times earnings. I see 23 times free cash flow. So immediately unlike it's not as expensive as our bare cases. In addition, look at the price to sales ratio 7.8. This is about the level of Microsoft, Google. Actually, it's lower than them. And it's got a lot more growth potential potentially down the road because look at this revenue growth number. 22% a year for the last three years. 23% for the last five, 29% for the last one. Now, returns on capital aren't the greatest. So, it's kind of missing that high return on capital. And I wonder why that is considering such a high free cash flow number. But look at this guys. Their profit margin keeps getting better. 10% a year for the last 10 years, 12% a year for the last five, 12.6 for the last three, sorry, for the last one year. So, all positive things I'm seeing. I'm actually already impressed with this. Next, we go to the eight pillars. All right. not as attractive. But look, low debt, a high price of free cash flow for the last 5 years, but remember their free cash flow last year is 50% higher than their 5-year average. I'm ignoring this. Shares are up a little bit, 2.5%. But what I'm going to do here is see how it's gone the last few quarters. Okay, so it's actually going down a smidge in the last few quarters. All right, so I'm not as worried about this. I can handle this one quite a bit. Low returns on capital hopefully gets better. But cash flow is up, net income's up, revenue up, boom, low debt. I like that. I'm actually okay with all the X's here. The return on capital is the only one that makes me go, hm, let me think about this for a second. Now, guys, I threw a ton at you. There's a lot more here. The good news is I created this channel to make it a lot simpler because investing should not be complicated. The hard part of investing is the stomach and the emotions, not the numbers. So, what I'd like you to do is absolutely free. I made a free key metrics PDF that'll explain all of this to you right there at your fingertips. Click the link below, download it in a matter of seconds, and you will be able to speak the same language as me. And as we do more and more videos, if you have that readily available, you can learn as you go along. This is exactly why I did this for the channel, because it's not as complicated as people make it out to be. Okay, let's take a look at what analyst think. Now, remember our analyst numbers are earnings per share. $4 per share this year over doubled to 927 in the next 6 years. Not bad. So, over 12% a year. Revenue growth. Look at this. 16 billion to 44.5 billion over the next seven years. That's almost 3x. High revenue growth numbers. Now, guys, the AI thing, are analysts buying into that? I don't know. Is AI gonna help them? Listen, guys, AI is helping all of our businesses, but we don't know what jobs will be created from AI. So, I'm not that guy who runs and screams and says, you know, bloody murder just because a new technology has come out. So, guys, we have a little bit of a story. We have some numbers. So, let's go make assumptions about the future in our stock analyzer. Remember, the key is making good, reasonable assumptions. It's exciting to assume 15 20% growth on every company, but that's not the way I try to do it here. I try to be somewhat conservative. So, I'm doing a 10-year analysis. Now, the first thing I want to point out is the returns on capital are getting better, which I like a lot. Next, revenue growth for the next 10 years. I put seven, 11, and 15%. Now, guys, analysts think a lot more, but I'm I'm doing that one right here. Next, I'm going to focus on free cash flow. I did 30, 33, and 36. I feel like that's reasonable because look at their last 10 years. It's gotten better. So, I think this is a reasonable assumption. Next, what price to free cash flow would I assign to Service Now 10 years from now? Well, hopefully then the returns on capital are higher. They're much more established business. They've gotten through the AI stuff. So, I'm putting 16, 19, and 22. I'm not quite giving it like the Microsoft one cuz I don't think that it's not like it's an everybody company that could sit there and really dominate, but I still think it deserves a premium. And then finally, my 9% no margin of safety return. Now remember, I don't do this as the price I want to buy it at. It's basically to tell me here's the intrinsic value. And when I'm teaching on this channel, I used to give a high return here because that was my desired return. But I realize, well, everybody's situation's different. You need to put in the return that works for you. Some of you might be 12%, some 15, maybe some are 20. The point is, that's why you have the tool to put your own assumptions in. So, I hit the analyze button. The stock is currently at 105. I have a low price of 86, high price of 240, middle price of 145. So, at today's price, if my middle assumptions occur, it's about a 13.5% return. not including the balance sheet. Now guys, real quick before we analyze the next company, a friendly reminder, never take our title and thumbnail literally. We're never here to give you a stock tip. We are here to teach a process so that one day you can apply that same process in your own way to help you sleep better at night and potentially get you better returns because you know how to value a stock, make good assumptions about its future, and understand the price you're paying versus the value you're getting. Next stock, Airbnb. We all know this one. It's how millions of people book a place to stay all over the world. Now, let's talk both sides of Airbnb before we dig into the numbers. And I'm also going to give my own personal opinion on my experience with Airbnb. The first bullcase starts with the business model itself. They don't own any fixed assets, no properties. They just act as the middleman. That is an incredibly efficient and profitable machine. their adjusted IBIDA margins are above 35% and they're plowing nearly all of their free cash flow into buying back stock. Now, usually I hate IBIDA, but remember in a company like this that doesn't have a lot of fixed assets, the depreciation is not going to be very high. There's not going to be as much capital expenditures. On top of that, the 2026 World Cup is basically a gift wrapped catalyst. Over 100,000 new homes listed across host cities. Massive booking volume coming in. And here's what gets me excited long term. They hired a former Apple executive as CTO. And they're building out AI powered search that could turn Airbnb into something closer to an Amazon for travel services, not just stays, but experiences, restaurants, everything that you would need on a trip. About 60% of their engineering code is already AI co-authored, which means they're scaling revenue without ballooning headcount. That's the kind of efficiency you want to see in a company that has multi-bagger potential. Now, the bear case, and of course, it's real. The biggest threat is regulation. Cities all over the world are cracking down on short-term rentals because of the housing crisis. Spain alone pulled over 60,000 listings off the market. If that trend keeps spreading, it directly chokes Airbnb supply. Second, hotels are fighting back hard. better prices, loyalty programs, more consistency, and Airbnb still has that cleaning fee problem that drives people crazy. Then there's the valuation. It trades at a premium to traditional online travel companies, and the stage's growth has actually been slowing down, but remember, still growing. They're leaning on one-off events like the World Cup to juice the numbers, and you've got insiders selling millions of dollars worth of stock, which is never the most encouraging sign. So, there's a lot to like and a lot to watch for, guys. I personally have six of my own properties on Airbnb. Two in Georgia, two in Texas, and two in Arizona. And I love the business. I love having an easy place where I can sit there and go list a beautiful property and really outshine my competition with my pictures, my quality, my response time, etc. But the funny part is now when I go look for a new house, I have to ask the question, is this short-term rentable? Back five, six, seven years ago, you never had to ask that question. But now, neighborhoods and cities are banning short-term rentals. So, it's a question I have to ask. 12, 13 years ago, I went to the US Open in New York City. I got an Airbnb. Now, you can only have an Airbnb in New York City if it's a place you currently live and you're giving a room off for it. Guys, at the end of the day, I don't want to stay in a place with somebody else, even if it's a beautiful house. I want to stay on my own. So, let's pull up Airbnb and break it down because we have looked at this one quite a bit. So the current stock price is $88 billion and look at the enterprise value $95 billion. Again a $7 billion difference with again $4.5 billion in free cash flow last year. This is almost exactly like Service Now. Again more free cash flow and net income but this net income is higher 2.5 billion. It is selling for 19 times free cash flow which is cheaper than Service Now. And look at this return on invested capital 41.74%. Now, this is what's interesting. Their 5-year profit margin is lower is higher than their one-year profit margin. So, that's a little confusing there, but it is what it is here for right now. But something I'd want to break down here. And their revenue growth has dropped significantly over the last 5 years. 30% a year for 5-year number, 13.25 for the last 3 years. Let's go pull up actually their income statement because I want to take a look at this. So, March of 2026 is the last full quarter. We have 2.68 68 billion versus 2.27. Not as much as I would have imagined. Kind of surprised by that. 2.78 versus 2.48, 4.1 versus 3.73. So, the growth has definitely slowed. It has definitely slowed. Now, I'm okay with that as long as all the people who are doing one-off properties that they're just trying to fill a few days here and there, fine. Go for it. Do that. I do think that this service will end up helping people who are trying to provide a good experience, a luxury experience with high customer service. That's what I'm aiming for for my properties, and I think that's what people are looking for in general. Okay, let's go check out the eight pillars here. Boom. Shakalaka. All right, low debt, cash flow's up, revenue's up, net income is up, but again, we have this really high five-year PE, really high fiveyear price to free cash flow. don't care because that free cash flow last year is up pretty nicely and shares outstanding are down. So it's interesting insiders are selling the company's buying back. Now remember people sell all the time for multiple reasons but the end of the day it is still I'd rather see insiders buying if it's that cheap. So let's see what analysts think about this company. Well they have profit ex almost over doubling from $512 to 1042 over the next four years. That's basically 18% a year of earnings per share growth. Hopefully the free cash flow sees the same growth and revenue growth of 14 billion to 20.2 which is about 45% in the next four years. So what is that about 10% 11% per year? So now we have our stock analyzer tool. Let's go see what assumptions Uncle Paul made. So first off I did a 10ear analysis. I did 5, 8, and 11% revenue growth. Then profit margin and free cash flow, I did the same thing. I did 30, 35, and 40. Keep in mind, their five and one-year numbers are higher than my middle assumptions. So, I'm hoping that continues on and gives them a little bit of buffer if they have to turn things around in the short run. Next, my PE and price of free cash flow. Guys, I could be very low here. I did 16, 19, and 22. It's kind of a margin of safety because I look at it going like, listen, I do think Airbnb is the dominant shortst stay direct to host platform. Yes, VBO exists. Exp um Booking.com exists, but the vast majority of our revenue does come from Airbnb. And I look at this saying, okay, I'm willing to give it a premium. Probably not the premium I'd give most companies with this kind of return on capital, but good enough. And again, my 9% return. I hit the analyze button. The stock is 145 per share right now. I have a low price of 115, high price of 301, middle price of 190 for a 12 and a half% return based on my middle assumptions and today's stock price. And third, guys, is Uber. And you already know this one. It is the app that gets you a ride across town and delivers dinner to your door. But here's what makes it a great business. Just like Airbnb, Uber doesn't own the cars or employ the drivers. It just connects millions of riders and drivers, eaters and restaurants, and takes a small cut of every single trip. That is powerful. That is an asset light machine with a huge network that is very, very hard to copy. So, let's look at both sides of Uber. Bullcase is all about leverage. And I don't mean in the sense of taking on debt. Uber spent years burning cash and everybody mocked it. But now it has flipped. The thing is printing money, which you'll see shortly. Earnings growth is outpacing bookings growth. Trips are growing double digits still and they are buying back stock aggressively, which means they think it's cheap. Then there's the recent delivery hero deal, a nearly $15 billion acquisition that's going to almost double their global delivery footprint to 99 different markets. That is massive cross-selling potential with their 50 million plus Uber 1 members. And here's the part that I find really interesting. The self-driving car story actually helps Uber. Instead of building their own fleet, they just plug into whoever's robo taxis work best, either Whimo, Nuro, whoever, and they route demand all of them. They keep the customer relationship, they keep the margin, and the hardware guys become interchangeable suppliers. That is a powerful position to be in. Now, the bare case, and there's real stuff to chew on here. That same self-driving story cuts both ways. If robo taxis get cheap and widely available, Uber's take rate, which is the cut they earn per ride, could get squeezed pretty hard. They might go from being the platform just being a middleman. Then there's the delivery hero deal. $15 billion in cash is a lot of money that's not going to buybacks. It needs approval in 65 countries and some investors think they're overpaying for international food delivery when the market wants them focused on high margin rides. And finally, the macro picture. If consumers pull back spending because of inflation or slowdown, ride share and delivery are some of the first things people cut. Add in gig worker lawsuits and rising insurance costs and there's real pressure on margins. Both sides have strong arguments. So let's see what the numbers tell us. So guys, Uber's market cap $150 billion, enterprise value 177. That is $28 billion essentially in debt, but they made 10 billion in free cash flow last year, 4.5 billion over the last 5 years. So it is a very manageable debt level based on last year's free cash flow. No dividend paid out. Returns on capital went from negative to positive. Hopefully going to continue getting better. And look at this 5-year profit margin 6 and a half% last year 16% with a gross margin of 41%. every extra unit they sell is 41% profit. Next, eight pillars. All right. None of these companies had big uh had had all check marks. And that's okay because in growing companies sometimes the numbers can look kind of ugly. So again, we have cash flow growth, net income growth, revenue growth, and the debt levels are lower. We we squeezed it right in there, but remember their free cash flow is up over 100% last year versus their 5-year average. But again, the five-year PE and fiveyear price of free cash flow are high, but look at the one-year. So, if you believe this 10 billion dollars in free cash flow last year is going to go from is going to keep growing from here, 15 times free cash flow on a company like Uber, sounds pretty interesting to me. Okay, let's go to analyst estimates. Ugly. 313 growing to 619 and then dropping to $5. That's interesting. One one analyst has a low of losing money in uh six or seven years. They are not optimistic about Uber's future. As for revenue, going from 60 billion to 103 billion over the next seven years. Not very sexy. What is that? That's 66% call it 70% growth in seven years on an annualized basis. About 9% per year. So let's go to our stock analyzer tool here guys. 10-year analysis profit and free cash flow. I did 18, 22, and 26 because it keeps getting better. And last year, they did do 18% free cash flow. If they're able to really drive that up, that could be very beneficial. Next, what PE and price of free cash flow would I sign of this company 10 years from now? Guys, it's Uber. If I ask you, I ask 100 people right now to use an app to go take a ride share, how many are saying Uber? An overwhelming majority of them. Even foreign countries, they know Uber who don't have them because they know Americans say, "Hey, do you guys have Uber here?" So, I put in 18, 22, and 26. And then finally, my 9% desire return. Now, guys, we just broke down three companies that could be massive long-term winners. But here's the honest truth. Doing this alone is very difficult. You second guess yourself. You panic when the stock drops. You sell too early. And you watch somebody else write it 10 times over. Guys, I've been there. I always talk about if I had had YouTube and this kind of community 25 years ago, I'd be a totally different investor. And that's exactly why we built Everything Money's tools and community. We had multiple community members buy Micron under $100, not because they got a hot tip, because they did the work. They understood what they owned. They had a room full of long-term investors around them who weren't panicking. Community members did the same thing with Meta, Google, and Sprouts Farmers Market over and over again. Now think about that for a second. One good decision held with conviction turning their investments into multibaggers. I have one simple question for you. What is that worth to you? Now I know what you're thinking. Why would I pay for this when I can watch the free videos? And you can. But the free videos give you the lesson. The software and community gives you the tools and support. I can go learn how to drive a car or fly a plane from YouTube. But if I'm not there with the joystick or the steering wheel doing it, what am I really learning? the same stock analyzer that I just used on these three stocks. You get to run it yourself on anything you want, anytime you want. That's the difference between learning about investing and actually doing it. So, click the link below. We have se a 7-day $7 trial. Is it worth a dollar a day for you? If you're tired of getting scared when the market goes down, this is how you start to fix all that. So, I hit the analyze button. The stock is currently at 72. This is why it's interesting. I have a low price of 86, high price of 255, middle price of 150. Guys, that means my middle assumptions occur. It is a 19.5% return. The question I have for you is, do you agree with my assumptions? And if you do, go join the community. Do the work to figure out if this is the right investment for you. Now, speaking of the biggest multibaggers in history, I just released a brand new breakdown of the Magnificent 7 and why the whole market is suddenly turning against them. It ties directly into everything we talked about today. They very well might be a huge opportunity because their performance has sucked lately. So, click it on your screen right now to watch the video. Thank you for your time.
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