$14,000 Gold, $500 Silver; Investor Warns A ‘Big Reset’ Is Coming | Willem Middelkoop

I wouldn't be surprised when silver goes back up to $100 uh in the next few months. This is getting quite dangerous these levels. And I I'm afraid that one of the next crisis might be a full-blown sovereign depth crisis. We could uh well get a gold price of 12 to 14,000. And this is not just some um crazy gold buck writing a report. Special coverage from the floor of the Royal Symposium is brought to you by Palacy of Gold. I'm pleased to welcome back the show William Middle Coupoop, founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and the author of The Big Reset. We'll be going over the themes of his book and how they're applicable to today's situation and how the big reset is unfolding before our eyes. What is next for the global monetary order, what is next for precious metals, and what is next for investors. Welcome back to the show, Bill. Good to see you again. Yeah, great to be here again. Thanks. >> Much has changed in the world since last time you were on the show, which is late last year. Starting with some recent news, the uh United States and Iran um are escalating the tensions in the Middle East. Trump says the US will destroy a bridge or power plant for each Iranian attack in the street of Hormuz. So now he's directly escalating to civilian infrastructure retaliation for every time that a cargo ship is attacked in the street of mus. Recall that after the ceasefire ended last month, uh, cargo ship volume has dropped dramatically back to, uh, the previous levels. And so, right now, effectively, the straight of Hormuz is closed. And now, it seems like the United States under the Trump administration wants Iran to force it to open through threat of direct retaliation on civilian infrastructure. What's your assessment of the current situation and how markets may respond to further escalatory attacks? Well, I think it's very difficult to understand what is the strategy of the US in in in this new conflict in this new war. Remember first there were negotiations between the US and Iran in Oman and then during the negotiations uh the US started to attack Iran together and all requests of Israel. So that that was that was strange. And then Trump, well, let's say he gambled and lost because he thought that this would be an easy walk in the park just like the [snorts] Venezuela actions. And then he was stuck uh in in in the Gulf and then he needed to find a way out and he signed this memorandum of understanding and actually uh by signing this MOU he he confirmed that US lost if if you read that document. um well he more or less agrees to anything Iran demanded and then he turned out to be a bad loser because he he tore up the started to attack again and now he's he's stuck again so what's what's his strategy what's his way out but I think uh when we look back at this situation a few years from now we will conclude that the US lost quite um um significant uh because they have all these bases in the Middle East. They used to have the petrol dollar system which was very beneficial for the US and now uh so much harm has been done to the infrastructure in the Gulf and also to the petro dollar system. So um um but but still the question for me is what's the strategy? He he he tries to to to um to stay strong and to and to stay in control especially regarding the petro dollar but he's losing it and and u I'm wondering what his ground strategy is. >> Yeah. You and everybody else wondering what the grand strategy is. What would be the resolution here? If we were to think of a scenario in which a peace deal is finally reached between Israel, Iran and the US, what would need to happen first? >> Well, you first need a ceasefire. Um, and that's what was agreed in theou. But but let's look back at the bigger picture. I wrote the big reset in 2013. The subtitle was the war on gold and the financial endgame. I've been writing on the petro dollar uh system for at least 101 15 years and it was my thesis that we're in this last phase of the current dollar system the dollar centered system and that the US would lose uh some of its power that US as an empire was in decline and we would see the rise of the bricks alliance led by China and who who's um the beneficiary of this crisis and as the guy who keeps quiet and that's China. So, China um I think is is keeping quiet and and and um there's this old saying, don't disturb your enemies while they're making mistakes. And I think US is making a lot of mistakes and like I said, the infrastructure in the Gulf is is is getting damaged every day. And um the the basis of the prozola system was the security guarantee that the US gave to the Gulf uh to the nations around the Gulf. And now all these nations around the Gulf, they learned that a US base is not a a a security guarantee, but it's a liability. You will be a tax. So I think many of these countries and the Gulf will ask the US to to to leave and and and the countries like Qatar and and the Europe um Arab Emirates, United [snorts] Arab Emirates, they they will understand they have to deal uh and negotiate with Iran because they're neighbors. So the US will lose a lot of influence in that part of the world and and that all um aligns with this big reset or greater reset picture that the US is in decline. >> What happens to dollar demand once I guess countries reroute their oil uh supply uh away from I guess dollar denominated um reserves. If that is that even if that even is a possibility at this point. >> Well, if you look at if you look at the heart of the this petro dollar system, of course, that that was uh that that was um set up in the early 1970s after the US took um the dollar off the gold standard in 1971. [snorts] So, they needed to find a new source um of demand for US dollar. So uh they convinced Saudi Arabia and the OPEC that the oil would always be sold in dollars. Well, what we've seen in the last few years is that the Saudis started to sell oil in yuan um started trading with China and other countries by selling their oil in other currencies than the US dollar. So the US dollar um the demand for the US dollar was in decline already. And if you look at the bigger picture, look what central banks are doing. Central banks are investing quite large sums of money in physical gold. And this um really started to [snorts] get uh well another uptick after 21. We're in the fifth year now. Fifth year in a row that central bank demand for physical gold is around 1,000 tons a year. That's one/ird of world gold production every year is being bought by central banks. And why are central banks buying huge amounts of physical gold? I think they are preparing for the decline of a US uh well dollar centered financial system. So all all these signs point to big changes uh coming into the international financial system and as I said the the the dollar at US empire is in decline. >> One thing I've learned from talking to countless investors over the years is that people spent a lot of time searching for certainty. The perfect signal, the perfect entry point, the perfect moment to act. But markets rarely work that way. In fact, many of the smartest investors I've interviewed weren't successful because they waited for certainty or the perfect entry point. They were successful because they acted when they had conviction. And that's especially true when it comes to something like gold. Many people have followed the gold story for years. They understand the macroeconomic backdrop. They see why central banks continue to accumulate gold and they understand the concerns surrounding government debt, deficits, and currency debasement. 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Right now, we're seeing a situation where interest rates are going up both in terms of the long end of the curve, 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, and potentially later on in the year, Federal Reserve funds rates would go up as well. Wouldn't higher interest rates put additional upside on the US dollar? >> Well, I think that it points to stress into the financial system. It it it brings more stress into the financial system. If you have um a higher interest rates if you look at the bigger picture of the interest rates, they've been coming down for over 40 years between 1980 and let's say 2020. we had this huge breakout of the interest uh rates uh after the COVID uh crash and now we're in an uptrend and if you look at the graph of interest rates uh we're in a well sideways pattern now but I can see a next leg up developing and when that happens um the risks for sovereign depth crisis are starting to increase sharply and look at the mountain of depth in in in in sovereign bonds whether it's China, whether it's Japan, whether it's uh the US or even countries like Spain or the UK. Um this is getting quite dangerous these levels and and I I'm afraid that one of the next crisis might be a full-blown sovereign debt crisis where countries really are having problems to finance uh their uh budgets and and to sell their bonds. Over the last couple years, not just in the last couple of months, but over the last couple years, we've seen commodities weaponized, which is to say, China, for example, has imported or restricted the exports of critical minerals. And um not just is a straightforward an important choke point for oil, but one could argue that uh we have choke points for critical minerals in place as well. >> How important do you think? Yes, go ahead. Yeah, of course this was a reaction on the weaponization of the dollar. The US has started to weaponize the US dollar especially in the last let's say decade or 15 years and there's even a wonderful book written by a former uh US treasury official. It's called treasuries war and and that book explains uh perfectly clear how the US has started all these financial economic wars by weaponizing the US dollar and and especially after the start of the Ukraine war. Um well many countries learn that it it's a risk it's a liability to hold US treasuries and we've seen Russia getting rid of all the treasuries. We've seen China selling the treasuries down. So, uh, the US needs to roll over quite a lot of the US treasuries every year. I think it's 8 trillion over the last 12 months. So, the US national debt is reaching 40 trillion now. [snorts] So, it it's a dangerous game we're playing. and and and um one thing is clear for me this we're on this unsustainable path and and when interest rates are starting to move up sharply like we've seen in the last few quarters and the last few years um then there's a big risk out there for a new financial crisis and which uh isn't discussed uh in the media. So we we keep ignoring this this this huge problem. Okay, what is the future of the US dollar in a big reset regime? In other words, when you're seeing all these changes happening in real time and we have to extrapolate into the future, Willm, how do you expect um treasuries and the US dollar to change in their role fundamentally for other countries who are planning to fill up their reserves with foreign currencies? >> Yeah. Yeah. Nobody knows. And this is very hard to predict. And if we look at the past of course we know that on average every 90 years we see a new major world reserve currency entering uh the system. Uh the US dollar was the successor for the British pound. Um this US empire which really started after the second world war that's now 80 81 82 years ago. um that that followed the the the the British Empire and the British Empire um was around for quite some time. But we've had the Dutch Golden Age and we've had we've seen um an era where the French were in control over the financial system in in the western financial system. So um it's quite normal after 80 85 years after the start of the second world war to see a new competitor um rising and that's China. China is leading leading the bricks alliance and China is working very hard to have bilateral trade with many countries in other currencies than the US dollar. >> [snorts] >> So the US dollar system is in decline. This doesn't mean that the dollar will collapse and go to zero. The pound sterling is still there although the British Empire is no not around any longer. So but it's very hard to envision when the crisis will uh arrive and and and how it will unfold. But many of these major crisis come in three waves. And you could say we had a first US crisis, a first wave [snorts] after 2000, after the collapse of the tech bubble in the early 2000. Then we had a second wave, a huge financial crisis, the great financial crisis uh in 2008 after Leman collapsed and and I wouldn't be surprised to see a third wave in which could be an even larger crisis and and this could well be connected to the sovereign debt crisis or the collapse of the US dollar system. But but it's very hard to um to to to predict how how this will all play out. >> William, is there another commodity that you think could challenge the oil status or the status of oil is probably the world's most critical resource? >> Yeah, if you look at at the size of markets then of course the dollar market, FX market is a huge market. Gold is is is a large [clears throat] market. Oil is a very large market. But there's another commodity which is getting quite a bit of uh which uh getting quite a bit of uh eyes to the story and that's the copper market. Copper is needed in the AI uh revolution. Copper is needed in the um uh what I call the Tesla revolution. All the uh batteries needed for the EVs. And if you look at the copper price and the charts, uh, it points to a very strong uptrend. And copper actually has been holding up quite well in the last few months. In the last 6 months, we've seen this huge correction in precious metals, but also in uranium, also in crypto. Uh, and copper held up very well. So that the next big bull market could well developing copper and copper stocks. uh what would be the choke point so to speak for copper? >> Well, that's the physical demands and uh all these markets we've seen that with silver as well, you can trade in all the paper contracts and the futures you want. But if if the industry demands physical co copper or or silver or or whatever uranium and and it's not available at at at the low the current low prices, the prices need to go up quite a bit to uh lead to demand destruction. And it's very hard um to uh start produce more copper worldwide because this is all being mined. As you might know, many of the older mines, the larger mines are being depleted and not enough copper has been discovered. I'm just back from a factf finding mission in the Canadian Yukon and and well, we're finding copper. We're finding copper, we're finding gold, but is it it's not enough. If you look at at what's needed to replenish the old former life large mines, then we are just discovering maybe 10% or 20% what's needed in the future. >> Is copper the new safe haven replacing gold? That was a remark from Robert Freeland noting that copper has risen during times during this Iran war where gold has fallen for example. Well, of course, he's talking his book, Robert Freedelland with Ivano Mines is is is um he he he well, he has an amazing track record of discovering the largest copper [snorts] reserves in Asia. He he he he he found some amazing copper projects in in in Africa in the Congo and and uh well he of course he is a real expert on on the copper markets and uh but well [snorts] um I can understand why he always points to copper but uh you you have to give him credit because if you look at the supply and demand studies for copper uh we've had a few uh disasters with current mines landslides, some political decisions where copper mines have been closed down like a Panama Cobra in Panama [snorts] and and we've we're reaching the point now that we see a production deficit worldwide which means that the physical demand for copper is getting larger than all copper being produced and as said it's very hard to increase the copper production and if you look at the latest numbers by copper producers like BHP and Riotinto and Kodelo they all uh have announced uh decline in their copper production in the last few quarters. The your commodity discovery fund has focused on hunting uh undeveloped ounces and um undervalued producers and uh and uh explorers. So right now in the space you've got the GDX declining having a having declined about 35% from its peak. Uh the GDXJ as well. Uh those are for gold miners. Um copper miners and base metals explorers because of the price of copper uh haven't shrunk as much. Would you say that there's a better opportunity from a valuation perspective in the gold mining and silver mining spaces rather than let's say copper mining? Well, I always like to um uh look at the larger trends and I think we've been in bare markets for so long in the in the commodity space. The top of the last cycle was actually around 2008 2010 when we started the fund. Then we had a bare market of 10 almost 15 years a long bottoming pattern. And what we've seen in the last few years is is I think the start of a new bull market in gold and silver and uh more uh broader in commodities in general and [snorts and clears throat] I think you will do well longterm when you position yourself in in gold and silver stocks but also copper and uranium. Like I said, the fundamental supply and demand situation is is is very positive for all these metals also for uranium. But if we focus on the precious metal stock which had this huge correction in the last uh six months, uh I think um we can call the bottom in the last few days. We've seen a a a a big recovery. Um uh our fund is is trading positive year to date. We're trading up 4% 5% up uh in July. And if you look at at the technical pattern, um I I just looked at a very long graph, you might know the gold and silver index, the X AU, and that one started around 1980. If you look at the larger pattern, uh the X AU broke out over [snorts] a 40-year, let's say, sideways pattern in October 25 and has now fallen back to test that major breakout area. and and um when you turn on on a on a technical support level like this, you could get another very strong move upwards. And [gasps] uh we we think that the the strong rise that we have seen in the last two years was only the first part of this major new bull market in precious metals. And we could well witness the start of the next leg up now. and the next leg up could well be stronger and longer than the the the move up that we've seen in the last two years. >> Given that gold has already run up to $5,500 and fallen and this was the major I guess development in the precious metal since we spoke last year late last year with them. Would you say that gold's price movement right now mirrors a bare market such that we saw in 2012 and 1980 post 1980? No. No, I think it's different and and and and what surprised me is that I I I read a research report written by Deutsche Bank I think a few weeks back and Deutsche Bank was actually um saying and and I I was almost shocked to learn and to read uh this report because it was like I was reading uh my own book, The Big Reset, because the larger bank said that gold is returning is coming back within the financial system. Uh they showed a graph that the total gold holdings by central banks is now larger than that treasury holdings. They also pointed to the fact that gold is moving back into the um strategic uh reserves from central banks and is now around 30% of those reserves and they point to the fact that historically it used to be over 40%. So the they predict and conclude in their report that this bull marketers for gold is just starting. And when they um when they try to um predict where the gold price was heading, they said that based on these historical patterns and the huge demand by central banks out there, you could uh well get a gold price of 12 to 14,000. And this is not just some um crazy gold writing a report. It's the Deutsche Bank. So that that that's that's telling. Okay. Why uh why are we looking at gold and silver right now as a safe haven play or an inflation hedge play right now still in 2026 is the question I'm getting from a lot of people given that gold has not hedged against inflation when the CPI printing went up earlier this year and given that gold has not hedged against the Iran war but actually has moved up and down alongside stocks. Do you think that the reason for holding gold has fundamentally shifted from a hedge against things to a risk on play like Bitcoin for example? >> Well, no. People always make the mistake by judging short-term price uh moves a and then um uh [snorts] change their opinion uh about a matter like like the like gold. But if you look at the larger picture, if Deutsche Bank is right, if if I'm right with my big reset thesis, we see a US empire in decline, which means that demand for US treasuries will go down and will continue to go down and we can um uh we we can see that this trend is unfolding as I've explained that central banks are [snorts] selling US treasuries [clears throat] um a and and are adding to their gold reserves. So the bigger picture is still um is is still there [snorts] >> and and and and when you're in a when you see the start of a big trend, you can expect the trend to continue. And uh I just looked at the numbers of central banks, central banks, they own uh around 11 trillion in bonds. They own around five four or five trillion in in in treasuries. They own around 5 trillion uh in in in physical gold. They added some 600 billion in physical gold holdings over the last four or five years. So if they continue to sell some of their treasuries, let's say 20% of their treasuries, that's another one trillion which could be turned towards gold. And that [clears throat] that's that's a that's almost double the amount of money they >> [snorts] >> um they they used to buy more physical gold in the last 5 years. And that's exactly what Deutsche Bank concluded in their report. [snorts] It's about central bank uh demand. It's not about retail demand. Do you think central banks were accumulating gold in the last couple years simply because the price of gold was still relatively cheap compared to today and on its way up or do you think they were preparing for something fundamental? Well, central bank um demand is totally different from retail demand. Central banks don't buy gold because they speculate it will go up. central banks buy gold because they understand that we are in this declining um um uh US dollar empire and I I've I've always been quite critical of central bankers but I I I've learned to to know them a bit better over the last 10 15 years and >> [snorts] >> um I I came to the conclusion central bankers uh sometimes they do stupid things, but they aren't stupid. Central banks have studied monetary history quite well. They understand the rise and fall of of monetary systems. A and when when they see a decline of of of the current dollar system, they understand they need to hatch themselves by buying gold. and that [clears throat] message uh it it it's something they don't advise you and me to do. But like [clears throat] I I I like to say with central bankers, don't listen to what they say, but look, just look at what they do. And and if they're all buying physical gold, well, they're doing that for a reason, and that's to h themselves [snorts] on on the major risk of the current dollar system. Do you think uh gold and silver have found a floor at current levels? >> Yeah. Yeah. I think we're we we've seen the bottom in this correction. We might get a retest of that bottom. Um and um I wouldn't be surprised to uh see gold going um uh under 4,000 one more time. But if you look at the gold stocks, I think they are turning up again and they will uh continue to recover and and uh we see this as uh the start of the next slack up. >> I'm going to show you a chart of gold. I haven't had a chance to ask you this question um since this happened, but how would you explain uh who or what entities caused this huge one-day selloff in all precious metals, not just gold uh but also silver, platinum, palladium uh right after it went up to almost $5,500 an ounce at the beginning of February? Like what happened there? Well, you you could say from a technical perspective, we we h we reached a blow of top uh let's say uh in January uh February, there always quite a number of speculators in the market. So there are different buyers than the central bank buyers. These are the hedge funds who own the futures. These are the well [snorts] the major traders and most of the hedge funds and and the [clears throat] larger more sophisticated traders they follow technical analysis and if you see a blowoff top you know there has a huge risk on a major correction even the strongest markets have very severe corrections. So >> yeah, >> was it institutions dumping uh banks, central banks at the time, uh financial institutions? I mean it was it seemed very coordinated >> that one day drop. >> Well, when often these corrections start that some of the larger um hedge funds or more speculative traders think this is a great moment to take profit. >> Yeah. And then what happens if if the market uh shows uh signs of a top because the first profit taking is taking [snorts] place then the markets get very vulnerable for attacks by players let's say the usual se suspects who want to bring gold and silver down by selling futures on on the comx and I think it's a combination of both but central banks haven't been selling. I studied the latest uh numbers from the research of the World Gold Council. There's only one central bank who sold a lot of gold and that's the Turkish uh central bank and that's because they had to defend their currency because the Turkish lera has been going down 99% against gold in the last 5 years and they all also have been selling US treasuries. So that that's that's uh a very specific um um fact and and and that doesn't um in general the central banks haven't been selling gold actually they have been buying a lots of gold even this year. The fact that foreign central banks now hold more gold than US treasuries on their reserves as a whole, does that signal to you that either they are simply diversifying or b they are preparing to use gold in a new monetary regime? Well, when I was writing the big reset, um I I remember um writing a chapter in which I predicted that gold would become more important into the financial system and and the dollar would be um starting to get in decline. And I think that's just what happened over the last 5 to 10 years. and central banks as said are hedging them their well let's say dollar risks by uh increasing their gold holdings because they know from history if you get a monetary reset if you see these huge changes coming into the monetary system like we have seen in the past every 80 to 90 years you know gold is is is the stable asset without any third party risk which you'll need in times of financial crisis and nobody knows what shocks will start to appear and as sad I expect another major [clears throat] crisis to develop somewhere in the next few years out there and and that could well be a sovereign depth crisis and if you get a sovereign depth crisis then gold will show its um through phase as the safe haven asset >> sovereign debt crisis. I mean almost every region in the world has experienced some sort of debt sovereign debt crisis from Asia to Europe except ironically America in the last 100 years. There hasn't been >> anywhere near something as bad as let's say um a a uh a debt crisis like in 2011 in Europe for example >> or Asian sovereign debt crisis. What what what what what why why has America been relatively insulated and will that change? >> Well, Germany had a a sovereign debt crisis three times in the last 100 years. The the same for Russia. Actually, there's only one country which never had a sovereign debt crisis and and that was Switzerland. And and the Netherlands is second best. we we we we like Switzerland never had a real southern depth crisis. Uh but if you look at the US as said in the last uh let's say 80 90 years the US was in control over the financial system and and could um uh could use the printing press by by printing dollars which the rest of the world needed. Uh let's go back 81 82 years ago this end of the second world war. Asia was in ruins. Uh uh Europe was was was in ruins and US needed to help the rest of the world with the Marshall plan and by giving them loans and and printing more dollars. And then when [snorts] um the world economy grew and you had the uh petro dollar system, demand for dollars was so strong. And I think that's the reason why the US never had a sovereign debt crisis. But that doesn't mean that it won't happen in the next uh 40 50 60 70 years. uh and and more in particular if you reach the end of of of of this dollar based system the pressure uh is getting um so um large that you can expect a major crisis in in the core of that system one day. >> Okay. Thank you, William. Uh I want to ask you finally for your evaluation of mining stocks right now given that at $4,000 gold uh the big producers are still as I've been informed uh still producing very strong free cash flow despite their valuations having fallen from a few months ago. Uh but at the same time sentiment for the gold sector overall has weakened uh given the correction in the gold price. Do you then favor the seniors over the juniors in this current environment or the other way around? >> Uh after a strong correction uh you always see the first recovery among the stronger names, the more senior names and also the royalty companies. So they might outperform in the first phase of the recovery. And if you look at the major producers like Newman or Bareric, their price earnings ratio is around 10 11 and which is real cheap. And if you look at the free cash flow, the gold miners have a larger free cash flow now uh as the tech companies. So, and the valuation of the tech companies are are are 10, 20, 30 times higher and sometimes even more. So, I think there's a lot of value to be found after this correction of the last 6 months. And I wouldn't be surprised to see um precious metals producers double over the next let's say 12 to 18 months. >> Okay. Would you be favoring one specific type of metal for uh for the miners over another right now? >> Well, that's copper because as as said that that's looking very very strong. Uh but I think silver uh will do well again. Silver is always more volatile. So silver price came down by over 50% which is a great technical correction. and gold uh and silver retracing, especially silver retracing back to the also the breakout levels around $55. That was a wonderful buying opportunity. And actually, I bought some more myself. Uh and I wouldn't be surprised when silver goes back up to $100 uh in the next few months. And I I I could envision silver going back to hundreds of dollars pounds in the next few years. And I'm on the record. I I gave a presentation in January and March this year at the VIC in Vancouver where you're now. And and in March at the Ped in Toronto that this bull market in silver will not be over be before we see $500 silver. So that's another 10x and and you can imagine what silver stocks will do in in a rally like that. And why could silver reach $500? Because there's this historical pattern that the gold silver ratio is is let's say 1 to10 or 10 to1 and and and when gold is trading 5,000 which is still cheap in my book, silver should be trading around $500. But as said when Deutsche Bank says that gold could be trading well north of $10,000 if you use the the one in 10 ratio or 101 ratio silver could be trading $1,000. So I think it's very early in this generational bull market and people will be surprised um by by um well the returns to be made in the next few years. >> Okay, appreciate it. Thank you. Uh thank you very much for your time. Where can we follow you, learn more from you? >> Well, I'm very active on Nex. Uh you can find my name there and I'm um quite active on Substack as well where I give more broader analysis. >> Okay, we'll put the links down below. So please do follow William there. Links down below X and his website. Thank you very much, Will. And for now, we'll speak >> and you can still download the big reset for free at our website. have to buy that at Amazon. You can download it for free. So, >> yeah, I've got a copy. >> Great read. Thanks, William. Please do follow that uh link and uh check out the great reset. The big reset. >> Big reset. Yeah. >> Thank you for watching. Please do subscribe and like.