I Just Bought $2,500 More of This Stock. Here's Why

Hey everyone and welcome back to another portfolio update for you today. So over the past week, the Couch Investing portfolio went down by 1.4%. At one point, we actually did perform quite well, but it went downhill quite quickly, especially on Friday. On Friday actually, it was a pretty horrible day. As you can see right here, Nebus went down 15%, was a very, very well, very hectic end of the day. But anyways, the S&P was also down.6% this week. And so in today's episode, we shall talk a little bit about the upcoming FOMC meeting. We will of course have a look at the upcoming earnings week and look at what the market is expecting these companies uh to report. I already released two videos over the last two days. Some of you might have seen it, some of you not. We went over a couple of companies. If you missed those videos, that will be in the top right corner. And then we'll go over some interesting pictures here, interesting charts as well. I would also like to show you a little clip from of course the legend Warren Buffett. As you can see right here, Bergkshire's cash pile swells to a new record. So yeah, that cash pile continues to increase every single quarter. But we listen to this short clip of Warren Buffett on the current state of the market. And then of course we need to talk a little bit about the well Jensen on X talking about open source model which company has already signed that people were freaking out. No worries. Nebus is already on that list and so is OpenAI. And then some more Nebuse news. And so I'll start off with the upcoming FOMC meeting which happens in less than three days. So on Wednesday, guess what? So reports on Wednesday. So do Meta and Microsoft. So that's going to be a fun day. But if we go and look at the probabilities for the January 2027 meeting, we are now sitting again at 37.5% probability that we are going to experience two rate cuts. Right? We are currently here 350 375. This is one rate cut. This is two rate cut or one big one. So right now clearly the market again is leaning uh this way the way of rate hikes. But as you know and as we can clearly see right here, these numbers do change quite frequently. But for the companies that are going to report, of course, there's also PayPal Tuesday before the open. Maybe I'll go live. I'll ask a couple of people if they want to join me. Maybe we'll do a live stream for PayPal. We'll see about that. But on Wednesday, SoFi reports Microsoft and Meta and Robin Hood will report after the market closed. So after we'll get already some comments from Kevin Worsh but for SoFi well the timing isn't great because SoFi might report a good quarter might tell us okay guidance is this and that because they assume that this and that will happen couple of hours later maybe those assumptions will be completely wrong because 3 months ago they gave us well no update on guidance despite a good report but their assumptions got worse and so right Now the thing here is because there is an FOMC meeting happening on the same day they are now maybe going to say you know what what's the point of raising guidance if our assumptions can suddenly change a couple of hours down the line. So they'll probably play it safe and say we're still expecting the same for the full year. Maybe maybe they'll tell us that now they're expecting two rate hikes or something like that and they're still keeping the same guidance, which again would still be considered good, but guidance raised, I guess that's off the table. As for the full earnings preview prediction, that one will come out on Monday. As for the rest, we have Microsoft Meta, Robin Hood, ARM, Qualcomm, Lamb Research, all report Wednesday after the market closed. Microsoft Meta. I'm still expecting strong numbers. I'm expecting, of course, capex to go up. Maybe some hints of capex for 2027. Although we did hear Google already talk about it, the fact that yeah, 2027 it's also going to increase significantly. So, I'm not going to be surprised. Now, the thing here again is I do believe that whatever these companies report this week, whether it's also an Apple, Amazon, Roblox, Reddit, Mastercard, you name it, it's all going to be affected by macro. I don't think that these companies will report bad quarters. I think most of them here will report quite a good quarter, but that doesn't mean that the stock will react positively. Still have some geopolitical issues going on. We'll have the inflation topic happen on Wednesday and so all of that will impact the stock regardless of what happens with the report. Of course, from an investor standpoint, I'd love to hear only good news from these companies and then the stock drops because okay, if I have cash, I can buy more. I know the company is still on track. No problemmo. And by the way, right now if we look at the S&P 500 PEG ratio, we can see that it is quite low. Well, it is the forward P divided by LTEG, which is a 5-year forward consensus expected annual earnings growth monthly through 2005, then weekly. So, okay, take again that data point with maybe a couple of grains of salt. As for the rest of what's happening right now, the average retail portfolio in 2026 apparently is down 12.7%. This is a cumulative year-to- date return for the average retail investor portfolio weighted by the most held stocks across retail brokerages according to this account right here, which isn't great. And then this leads us to this. Retail net flows dropped to near the lowest since pandemic. I mean, I guess when you keep buying the dip every single time, you run out of cash and well, you then reach this point right here. Now, moving on to the portfolio itself. Still have here the outside ones. PayPal bull spread still untouched. The core wave January 2028 $60 call is now red, but of course, we still have a long long time until we reach expiration. Now, as for Leortoy itself, we have here still Nebuse as number one. Again, on Friday, very, very hectic day because at one point we were at $25 and then towards the last two hours of the day, it dropped all the way to $187 right now. Still a very big position for me and I don't mind it at all. But it does mean that well when Nebus drops a lot my portfolio will of course uh drop as well unless all of the others go up. But I highly doubt it cuz the team here is quite clear. Growth a lot of AI names here as well. Number two is now AMD. That name has held up quite well. We do have SoFi at number three. Google at number four. Rocket Lab Google at $319. That's interesting. Rocket Lab at number five. Still going lower and lower here, closer to $60. Then we have Oscar at number six. Meta number seven. We'll look at what the market is expecting Meta to report in a bit. DLO still around $14 or so. All right. The year is 2048. What's DLO doing? $14 maybe. I don't know. Then we have Rubric, which of course cyber security names over the last couple of weeks have done quite well. Of course, Rubric, Crowd Strike, all of these names are very, very expensive. They were also a bit higher, but they're still expensive. Still very good companies. AI is a tailwind for them. We have Micron here. It did go under $900, now picking back up $920. I do think that the Micron and SK Hindings, they should go back to all-time highs. And probably we will see all-time highs because the next time they report you'll see that the business is still growing significantly and these players are going to be printing cash. Then we have Robin Hood. We'll also look at what the market expects Robin Hood to report on Wednesday. We have Uber. Now Uber, we did talk a little bit about the Uber aspect on I think Friday or or yesterday. So Uber, there was this headline that Whimo is looking to to end the agreement, the partnership with Uber. Now Uber and Whimo have a partnership up until 2028. So that partnership will still run until 2028. Question here is, are they going to continue the partnership after 2028? Now, of course, to lose Whimo, it sucks, but Whimo is just one player. Okay, Whimo is just one player. And by 2028, a lot of things can happen. First of all, by 2028, we are going to have multiple AV players enter the market, especially in the United States. So, I'm not that worried about that. Optics, of course, it's not great. But right now, it's just a headline. We'll have to wait, I think, two weeks or so until we get the Uber earnings report. That's why Uber is back here under $70 per share. But this whole notion that again, oh, Tesla is going to destroy, right? the Tesla boys. I now get why the the Tesla haters don't like the Uber bulls for Tesla because they don't make much sense. Remember, Elon Musk said that Tesla will be licensing their FSD technology to other players. And if you do this, then you're automatically creating more AV players. And the more AV players you have in the market well the more chance there is that a platform like an Uber is going to win because there's no way that people will have 10 ride hailing apps or Uber Eats or whatever on their phone, right? You're not going to build 10 networks that Uber has built over the past decade plus. No, they are going to list their fleets on the Uber network because it will make so much sense to them. It's going to be a commodity. And every time you have a commodity well platforms distribution networks like Uber tend to win. I go, "Yeah, but they own the cars." Okay, great. But at the end of the day, you need people that enter your car. And if what you have isn't that special anymore, right? We're not in 2020, not in 2022, 2023, right? We're already in 2026 and headlines that feature way more do way more damage than headlines that feature Tesla when it comes to Uber. And so, who knows what will happen in 2028. Now, some people say, "Oh, cope even harder." I've said it time and time again. The biggest risk is if Whimo and Tesla take 90 plus% of the market, but I don't think that's going to happen. First of all, Whimo, they don't make the Whimo cars. the way they make the technology, right? Second of all, Whimo is a subsidiary of Google, but Whimo has two CEOs. And so, if Whimo needs to run their business as a standalone business at one point, which they will, they need to make sure that they don't rely on the cash cow that is Google. And so, you need to make sure that you're monetizing all of these cars. If you need people to take rides, I guess I guess the results that they've been seeing with Uber are pretty good. In my opinion, they will continue. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe not. We'll have to wait and see. But this whole notion that oh, Uber goes to zero. I guess not much due diligence has been made. But anyways, continuing here. New holdings at $14, holding steady. We have shift four here back under 50. We have Reddit. We'll look at what the market expects ready to do. Exxon, Palanteer, Netflix, couple of shares of Nvidia, barely any cash, but there is cash coming over the next couple of days. I did buy more Reddit this week. Why is that? Because there was a drop and there was this headline, right? It said, "Oh, $60 million. The deal with uh Google is going to go away, etc., etc." I I don't think it has to do, like I said, I don't think it has to do with the $60 million. It's more about the loss of maybe traffic, but in my opinion, this is just Reddit saying, you know what, our data is extremely valuable to you. It's definitely worth way more than $60 million. And so, I do think they are going to renegotiate a deal and the deal is going to be much bigger than $60 million. Now, that's all I did. I do believe that yes, we did get a a little dividend from Micron as well. Now, let's have a look at what the market is expecting some of these companies uh to report over the next couple of uh days. To me, fluctuations in the portfolio, it's normal, right? You you cannot have amazing results, right? You cannot be up this year, I'm up already close to 26% over the past 12 months, 56% in total 217%. uh this doesn't happen because I buy Coca-Cola or Fizer or whatever. And by the way, this this happens without any leverage, without any of these things, right? Because I've seen other accounts that were up significantly and suddenly they've been blown up because well, we have a dip for a couple of days. Like this just doesn't make any sense. But yes, over the past month, I'm down close to 8%. To me, this is normal, right? I cannot go and chase huge gains and then start to cry and complain when oh 1 month I'm down 8%. Oh okay it's part of the deal here. Now if we have a look at what the market is expecting Meta to report because I do think that Meta is one of the most interesting ones to report this week purely because of the commentary around their business. So revenue-wise market is looking at just over $6.2 billion. Not bad. We'll straightly go to a free cash flow. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $841 million. So here the question is going to be how much more is it going to be negative this quarter cuz we've got that surprise from Google. Let's see Meta. Is it going to be maybe a billion dollars negative? If it's going to be less, that's even better. But we'll see. We'll see about that. All in all, with Meta, I think it's more about what they're seeing internally, right? Recommendation systems, all of that, advertising, and then maybe they'll finally talk about, right, the Meta Cloud business, maybe some uh comments on what they expect from the subscription business. All of that will be very, very important. A yes, I almost forgot capex estimates, $33.2 billion for this quarter. If we look at the annual expectations, we're looking at $135.2 billion. That's the number right now. For fiscal 27, we're looking at $174 billion. In my opinion, it's going to be much closer to $200 billion. We'll do the same here for Microsoft. For this fiscal year, $118.8 billion. For next fiscal year, huge jump, $178.2 billion here as well. Maybe maybe closer to $200 billion. Who knows? But let's look at what the market is expecting Microsoft to report for the upcoming earnings report. $87.6 billion in revenue and free cash flow. And this one I do think I remember it's still going to be yeah positive $17.4 billion. But hey, who knows? Maybe here as well we're going to have a big surprise. Now, of course, if you want to check all of these estimates yourself, fiscal.ai, the best partner of this channel. If you want to check it out, there's a link down in the description and in the pin comment. You'll get 15% off if you use it. Many of you have used it, especially during the earning season. So, I really, really appreciate that. Moving on to a Reddit. Reddit free cash flow wise, that's expected to increase from here. So, that's great. $254 million revenue-wise, still expected to grow quite rapidly. Right now, $729.4 million. That's around 71% year-over-year growth. Looking at EPS, EPS expected to come in just under $1.96 and that's 409% year-over-year growth. But of course, if we go and look at the other quarters, we can see 142%, 86, 134, and then 45%. So, we can clearly see that from a profitability standpoint, Reddit is going to do much, much better from here on out. $ 32 billion company. Margin wise, things are improving. Growth is there. My opinion, very cheap. Looking at Amazon here as well, we'll start with capex for this year. $22 billion. Next year $230 billion. The range here is quite big. Some even say $34 billion for next fiscal year. So, that's going to be quite uh quite interesting, quite a number to look at. For the quarter, market is expecting to wow, this is a big number. 195 close to $196 billion in revenue. Free cash flow. We know it's is going to be negative for this quarter. For some reason, they expect it to be positive, but to me just that doesn't make much sense. But you can clearly see here that the range is very very big. Right? One analyst thinks $40.6 billion, another20.9 billion. So the range here is quite big. I I'd be surprised. I'd be very surprised if it's positive. As for EPS, I guess here as well, we might see maybe a one-time impact. It's expected to be $181. That's approximately 37% year-over-year growth. So, pretty good. Looking at Hood, we're expecting EPS to come in around 43 cents. That's 38% year-over-year growth. And revenue coming in close to, I would say, $1.2 billion. That's 40% year-over-year growth with Robin Hood. To me, it's crypto business close to being dead in my opinion. But the prediction markets is going to be the star of the show. And I've said this time and time again. Crypto, throw it out. Doesn't really matter anymore. It's a prediction markets that's just going to be a huge, huge business for the company. And it came in at the perfect time because if they did not have the prediction markets business and they were struggling with crypto, of course, Robin Hood in my opinion would have been worth less than the $95 that we're seeing right now. Now, since we're talking of course a lot about AI, Jensen joined X first post talks about of course open uh models, not just open source, open way as well. A lot of companies and big figures have signed that letter. The first big logos are all visible right here. You have Microsoft Mistral Nvidia Palanteer Perplexity, Meta, Crowd Strike, Service Now, etc., etc. And so people say, "Oh, where where is AMD? Where is OpenAI? Where's Entropic? Where is Nebus?" Right? Wasn't there. But only took a little bit of time cuz look we now have Nebus, we have open AAI, we have Google and so every single day more and more people will just sign this letter because first of all for Nebus for core it's it is very good for them right this push towards open source open way it's very good that's also why they are extremely quick to launch on Neb's token factory so I have your D and say the Nebus token factory has been working all weekend to gear up for tomorrow's Kimmy launch. This truly feels like another deepseek moment, but this time the team is bigger. And remember the deepseek moment for Nebus stock went down 40%, but it was their best week for the business. Guess what? Kimmy right now, I assume it's also the best week for them with Kimy's launch. And like they say, the team is bigger. They've clarified, they have Igon AI, they have Tavili, the model smarter, and the stakes are higher. This is a typo here. I guess this isn't written by AI. And if it is, it's a dumb one. But talking about Nebus, my average, as you can see, is still very low. $52.50 or so, 540 shares. I mean, with Nebus, I I'm just so convinced that this is a company that is going to win and is just better than the rest, which is why I don't mind that this is a 19% position for me. I didn't mind that this was a 22 23% position for me either. And I wouldn't even mind buying more. But since I do believe that earnings are coming up pretty soon, I just rather wait right now a little bit. If we go up, great. If if guidance is even better, great. Then the stock is just becoming cheaper, right? Unless unless the jump in stock is going to be huge. But going into the earnings report for Nebus and for a lot of these names, I am not I'm not happy that the stock is down, but I am more relaxed going into an earnings report where we've had decent pullbacks. Some names have crashed. A lot of names have had decent pullbacks. And so the price to perfection argument isn't there anymore for a lot of these names, right? The Nebus is down significantly. Some will say it's still very expensive. Okay, go do some research on the company. So is down a lot, undervalued. Rocket Lab also down more than now 50%. So going into the earnings report better. Meta is just undervalued. So it doesn't matter there. Robin Hood undervalued doesn't matter there either. Same for Uber, Reddit as well, right? new shift 4. Axon is the one where it's still expensive, but at least we're not at $640 or so. And Palanteer at 122, $123 is also, in my opinion, a very good price to go into the earnings report. So, I'm not happy that the the portfolio is down 8%, but I'm happy that I don't have to own things that are at all-time highs where it's priced to perfection and then you go into the earnings and suddenly it it blows up in your face. Now, of course, this is how I see it through my eyes. This is my portfolio. So, I make the decisions here. You have to make the right decisions for you. Because yes, some people will say that the market is super overvalued. Some people will say that the market is okay, maybe undervalued. And maybe let's actually listen to a smart old man talk about the market. >> There are there are times when opportunities are just thrown at you so fast you can't, you know, it's unbelievable. And then there's other times when you're very very lucky if you find one thing in a couple of years. And and uh it it should always be that the the latter is what prevails. But but since humans love to gamble so much, there's more money in in actually cultivating gamblers than there are cultivating investors. If if somebody bought brochure 40 years, you know, 50 years ago, a guy would have made one commission and and he should spend the rest of his time telling the client, "Don't do anything with it." And that's just not the way. We can't expect that of humans. But every now and then you do find people that that I mean, you find people who behave far better than other other people. Fair to say though it's tougher to find values or find >> it's tougher to find values when everybody is preferring gambling. >> Of course this comes after Bergkshire whether it's Warren that made the decision or not can't remember but they invested in Google Alphabet right I mean a lot of people were quite surprised that they made this move but it is I mean it's true they do take their time when making their investments they don't really care about the hype. I mean, we've just seen, right, their cash pile continues to go up and up and up and up. Are they waiting for a huge market crash where everything goes down by 50%. Maybe or maybe they just don't feel comfortable buying certain companies. Maybe they're not seeing the value or not seeing anything interesting to them personally, right? Because if you ask me or if you ask yourself, we believe that there are interesting stories in the market. Now you say, "But we aren't as smart as Warren." Well, Warren Buffett didn't invest in in Amazon or or in Microsoft or in all of these companies that have done tremendously. He has invested in companies where he believes in an Apple, Coca-Cola, some airlines, etc., etc. Because these are the companies that he understands, he believes in, and that's good enough, right? That's good enough for him. He doesn't need the next big thing. They make money by making good investments. They already have a huge empire. And yes, time was on his side. But then again, a lot of people could have started to invest in the 60s, in the 70s, in the 80s, and 50 years later, 60 years later, they might also be multi-billionaires. But I guess not a lot of people have the patience and the discipline. Investing, as I've said it time and time again, is a lot more about controlling your emotions than about being a math genius or anything like it. A lot of people just like to throw out numbers out there because it makes them smart and people get scared about, oh, too many numbers, I don't understand, etc. No, it's about not making dumb decisions. And so, ladies and gentlemen, this is about it for me in today's episode. Go check out the two last videos. On Monday, there is going to be the big SoFi pre-earnings review and prediction. So, make sure you don't miss that one. And then we'll be live a couple of times over the next couple of days because we have a lot to talk about and I'm not sick anymore. So, that's great news. Anyways, have a great rest of your Sunday. See you all in the next one. Bye-bye.