AI Stocks EXPLODING! Is This Rally LEGIT!?📈

Am I dreaming, guys? Holy crap, the entire AI trade is on fire today. The entire stock market's rebounding, and this is all thanks to Microsoft. Honestly, Microsoft, their stock's going nuts, earnings were strong, and we have to break down not only Microsoft's earnings, but other companies like Meta, Robinhood, overall the entire AI trade, we'll talk about it, and go over the overall market, which again, as of right now, guys, it's going nuts. So, hit the like button, make sure to subscribe. Join my Patreon if you want to see how I'm trading this market, my stocks, my moves, my portfolio updates, and most importantly, if you want to be a part of my private discord, it's all on Patreon, link down below, pinned in the comments, or go to stasserfest.com/patreon. And now, let's talk, man. This is insane. The VIX is down 12%, and let me make sure you guys can see this. You can see it, beautiful, as the Qs are up over 3%. You can see right here the Qs are rebounding very nicely. We hit 656 in the after market yesterday. Now, we're at 682. SPY's up around 1.3%. The Dow's up just around 1% as the Russell is up .8, about 3/4, .8 of a percent. Not bad, very good, man. And again, the AI trade is on fire. Before we jump into Microsoft, talk about Meta and Robinhood, which I'm long out of those three, only Robinhood right now. Before we do that, let me show you some of these names today, man. Nebius is up 30% 30%. This is insane. Nebius is up 30%. Lam Research, which, oh by the way, they reported earnings yesterday, they're up 20%, and I'm kind of kicking myself for not buying Lam Research. I was about to buy it, like I told you guys, and you all know my Patreon. You saw my trade a couple months ago. We bought Lam Research in the mid-high 200s, dumped it in the mid-high 300s, and I was about to re-enter, and well, I didn't. And now we're pushing 300 again, and they crushed earnings, guys. Let's see if I can read these off to you really quickly. Yeah, their guidance was phenomenal. They beat EPS and revenue. I mean, that's that's as much as you can ask for, right, in this market. And the fact that it's rebounding like this goes to show maybe maybe the AI trade, I don't know if it's bottomed, per se. I don't want to call the bottom, but sentiment got so bad to the point where now we're actually getting good reactions from earnings. That goes to show we got beaten up a lot. And, you know, it's not fully breaking out yet. I'm not calling for the bottom, but sentiment could slowly start to be it could be slowly shifting at this point. Stocks like Microsoft Holy crap, man. Which we're going to dive deep into. Microsoft's up almost 16 or actually over 16%. This is insane. Microsoft is up 16%. Micron's up 16%. Intel 13%. Coherent 11%. Corning is up 8%. Arm Holdings 8%. Shall I go on, guys? Tesla's up 3%. Okay, that's a bit underwhelming. Nvidia's up around 2%, not too bad. And that one didn't go down as much, so it's not going to snap back up as much on a rebound day like today, but let's just dive into Microsoft, man. This is almost unheard of. I don't know the if this is a stat, but this has to be one of the best days in history for Microsoft, at least in recent memory, man. This thing is up almost 17% on the day, and the company obviously crushed earnings, or they wouldn't be up 17% on the day. Microsoft ended up doing Let me show you guys here or or I'll I have all the notes right here. I'll read these numbers off to you guys. Revenue came in at 90 billion versus the 87.6 billion estimate that beat 18% up year-over-year. Adjusted EPS, $4.74. That beat the $4.24 estimate. Very nice. Up 23% year-over-year. And Azure, guys, cloud growth. This is what it's all about. It came in at 43% growth versus the roughly 40% growth expected. So, unbelievable growth out of cloud. Overall revenue, productivity, and the business processes, that segment was up 14% intelligent cloud. And by the way, Azure intelligent cloud, which unbelievable. It now hit a hundred billion dollars in annual revenue for the first time. So, grew 43%, and we hit that hundred billion dollar number. So, Microsoft, which you guys know, it's the biggest software company in the world, right? They're they're setting the tone here and showing us, okay, they're crushing it still, right? They're putting the the naysayers to to rest, the doubters to rest to for now. And the entire software sector has been in shambles. This is a very good confirmation that maybe we've bottomed. These businesses aren't doing as bad as we previously thought or that we've been hearing about, right? And CapEx reached 41 billion dollars for the quarter. Um and full year guidance or Q1 guidance, excuse me. Uh, they're forecasting 89.85 to 90.95 billion dollars um, with expected Azure constant currency growth around 45%. So, this stock, man, you know, it's not breaking through the highs yet from the end of May, but man, sentiment is turning. Software in general is starting to look a lot better. The IGV is now up um, on the day. It's It's trying to break through. Other names here in the space, like ServiceNow, I mean, these aren't moving as much, but I think they're going to follow in coming days. Palantir is down a little bit. CRM is down, I think a little bit. Yeah, about 5%, but I think sentiment is slowly starting to turn, and these are going to follow Microsoft's path. And listen, if Microsoft really takes out the highs from the end of May, this thing's going to go nuts. It's going to go even further in my opinion. And it's it just got way too beaten up. People almost forgot the beast that Microsoft is, and that cloud growth, man, that's what's really pushing um, this name right now. So, let me show you all um, Robinhood's earnings quickly, which I'm long Robinhood. I'm not long uh, Microsoft right now. So, Robinhood's currently down 3%. You guys know my Patreon portfolio. I sold a little bit a couple days ago to fund a new investment, which I bought some NextEra Energy. And listen, I still own a lot of Robinhood, and this company did very well. Um, earnings per share, 62 cents, which beat the estimate of 41 cents. Revenue came in at 1.31 billion. That topped the 1.28 billion estimate. Adjusted EBITDA came in at 741 million dollars. That's a 57% margin. Transaction based revenues jumped 44% year-over-year to $776 million. Equities and options almost doubled up 95%. Equities trading almost doubled up 95% while options grew 29% and crypto, I mean listen, crypto's in a slump. We all know that. They barely talked about it in the earnings call, right? And that interest revenues grew 9% to almost $400 million as user growth and deposits, net deposits reached a record $22 billion for the quarter bringing total platform assets near $400 billion dollars as funded customers rose 7% year-over-year to 28.4 million. And Robinhood Gold, which is obviously a big part of their business, subscriptions accelerated 39% year-over-year to a record 4.8 million users. So, Robinhood's crushing it. Stock is still looking good. I mean, it's down overall from where it was, obviously. Hello, we all know that, but the trend looks strong. I love the management team. I love where they're going. I love the outlook. Listen, I'm still holding. If anything, I might buy a little more at some point in the future if it creeps down a little more, right? We'll see. At this point, again, I love it. Great earnings. Record numbers pretty much across the board for Robinhood and Meta on the flip side is not looking so pretty. This is why I sold out of Meta a couple days ago, earlier this week. Do you guys not remember? I sold out at like 595. Thank God I did. I sold out of Meta, some Robinhood as well. Like I said, the fund this new investment and this is why I did that because I had I had a feeling Meta was going to tank and here we are completely falling off a cliff. Um now it's down back to 530. It was just at 685 literally a couple weeks ago, right? So meta reported and the thing is their earnings weren't bad. I mean, they did pretty well. Meta reported earnings per share. Let me read these off to you guys and I'll give you my thoughts. Earnings per share of 618 which that missed $7.14 and revenue beat 60.8 billion versus 60.24 billion. So mixed earnings there. CapEx came in at $31 billion. Revenue grew 28% year-over-year, but it's all about EPS and free cash flow. Free cash flow got destroyed guys. Operating margins dropped to 31% down from 43% a year earlier. EPS missed by a dollar. CapEx, I'm pretty sure they they narrowed it. Yeah, they narrowed it, but it's still above where it was in the lower bound of the range last time we heard from them. Now they're looking at full year 26 CapEx of around 130 to 145 billion dollars raising the lower bound from 125 like I said. They're funding this aggressive AI build-out which a lot of investors are getting, you know, tired of all this money that not just meta is spending, but a lot of these hyperscalers are spending and it's down even though their guidance was pretty decent. They're guiding for full year or rather Q3 revenue of 61 billion to 64 billion dollars. That came in a little light of that 63.15 billion estimate. The midpoint came in a little light, but not bad. Not bad. But all eyes are on CapEx, profitability, free cash flow, operating margins and they're getting hit across the board. They're and yeah, I mean, I'm not surprised. This is why again I sold out of Meta. Now, my never going back into Meta, listen, I'll probably own the stock again, but not in the next couple of weeks or months. I'm going to give it some time. And honestly, if this thing falls under 500, if it somehow gets into the fours, that's where I want to get back in. Let it fall in my lap. Let's see if it falls in my lap, guys. That would be phenomenal. 400s for Meta. So, yeah, that's kind of what we saw out of those three companies. Very good earnings, especially out of Microsoft, solid out of Robinhood, maybe not the best out of Meta, but I'll take it. I'll take it. And the overall market is loving this. It's loving this. And we've been due for a rebound in these AI stocks, in these names. But the reality is, guys, we're not fully breaking out. This is just the relief rally. I know, you know, some of you might be like, "Stoss, we're fully breaking out, right?" I wish that was the case. I wish that were the case, guys. We're not. That's the reality. Micron still under both moving averages, same with a lot of these different names. Nebius, right? Even though it's up 30%, it's still under these moving averages, same with Lam Research. You know, all these stocks, you know what I mean? Even the Qs, even the Qs are still trading under this critical old support at 690, which is now resistance, right? That's a big spot. We're under these moving averages. And you're noticing that on these different semi ETFs, right? SMH still on a downtrend, SOX still on a downtrend. So, I'm not trying to be, you know, the bearer of bad news here, but that's the reality. That's where we're at on these charts. And, you know, those that want to go short, not saying to go short, but these are the types of rallies that if you want to go short, now's the time to buy puts, you know, buy some bearish ETFs. But, who knows? We have Amazon's earnings after the bell. We have Apple's earnings after the bell, and these stocks are moving right now. They are moving right Well, Apple's down a little bit, but that thing just hit all-time highs. So, forget about Apple. But, if these stocks go up in the after market, man, it's going to bring up the market even further, most likely. But, the reality is even Amazon, it being up 5-6% on the day right now, it's still under these moving averages, not breaking out yet. And I hope it breaks out, but we're not there yet. So, let's not get too excited, and I'm not going short for the record here, guys. You know, maybe a little day trade later in the day, but going short into the Amazon print and Apple print, I don't have the cojones [clears throat] to do that right now. I got to be honest. May- maybe some of you guys do. Let me know in the comments if you do. But, I don't have the cojones to do that at this point. But, overall, very, very strong day for the market. Oil's down, VIX is down, every index is up, Bitcoin's up. It's one of those days. It's exciting. We've been due with with all this just slaughter that we've seen in the market. We've been due for a day like today. So, what do you guys think? Let me know in the comments. Hit the like button. Make sure to subscribe. Join my Patreon if you guys want to see how I'm investing right now, my trades, my portfolio updates. If you want to be a part of my private Discord, it's all linked down below, pinned in the comments, or go to stossairfast.com/patreon. I'll see you guys in there. And with that being said, have a great rest of your day.