askSlim Market Week Brief 07/31/26 - Analysis of Financial Markets

This is an S&L stock market brief for Friday July 31st, 2026. This is RV Ramachandran. Just as a heads-up, Slim did did have his second cataract surgery. All is well and he will be back shortly. So, what has happened over last week? Well, we had a lot happen. We had selling in the AI infrastructure plays going from Monday and through Wednesday's close. On Wednesday's close, it it absolutely cascaded as we saw some very large moves down in names like SNDK, MU, LRCX, you know, so on and so forth. Things were looking pretty ugly there into the close. And we ended up finding out that the hedge fund situational awareness was actually forced to sell their whole equity book to none other than Citadel in order to fund margin calls. You do have to note obviously that they were heavily leveraged 4X on a pair trade which was long AI infrastructure and short legacy enterprise software and that really blew up. So, that is what happened there. We ended up forming a low on Wednesday and then saw a turn back to the upside. We saw earnings on Wednesday afternoon from Microsoft and their Azure cloud actually re-accelerated. The highest quarterly growth in 16 quarters for their for their cloud really affirming to investors, you know, all of this hundreds of billions of dollars of spend you know, may in fact be warranted. So, that's at least the overall sentiment for now. We saw large rallies on Thursday in names like MU, LRCX, AMD, so on and so forth. And we saw the Cosby also rally 25% from low to high, so absolutely incredible volatility. After that on Thursday, we saw Amazon's earnings. And in the same way their Amazon web service revenue growth, you know, obviously accelerated as you can see here, fastest pace in 18 quarters. So there's, you know, a theme there. You had their AI and custom silicon also reach $25 billion run rate. So as of they have a lot of profit centers does Amazon. So this is a very interesting move on the upside. Amazon like Microsoft is having a very strong day after their earnings report. In terms of the FOMC, the FOMC did end up holding rates steady while highlighting persistent inflation concerns. And there were actually three dissenters there. And 30-year yields really spiked to over 5.2% again 19-year highs for the 30-year yields. So in this video, what we are going to do is see a many stock sectors on the AI compute stocks. I'm going to be looking at three different groups within that. I'm going to be looking at public AI cloud hyperscalers, vertical proprietary hyperscalers, and finally neo clouds. The reason I've actually done that is cuz I think you'll see some interesting themes forming which are certainly noteworthy. We will see the ASLIM day trader special again final weekend here. Buy two months, get one free. And we will finish up with the ASLIM stock market outlook. Please note for all of our presentations this is simply us sharing our charts, we're sharing our levels, we're sharing our indicators. We are bull bear agnostic. We're just sharing with you our ideas, not sharing with you anything that you should be trading just on. You know, you have to make those own calls on your own. Every trade is your own. Trade ownership is one of the most important things, especially as you look at other people's work. You have to own your own trades. If you have any questions, please consult with your financial advisers. Okay, so this is the stock sectors on AI compute stocks for Friday, July 31st, 2026. And how we are actually going to break up this segment is into three separate areas within AI compute. We're going to first look at the public AI cloud hyperscalers. Right? Think MSFT, Google, Amazon, Oracle. And after that, we will look at the vertical proprietary hyperscalers. Names like Meta, SpaceX AI, right? Are two examples that we're actually going to cover. And finally, we are going to look at the neo clouds, which are names like CoreWeave and NVIS. So, I think this will be interesting cuz one of the really important things is to evaluate how narratives change over time, right? There was a view that hyperscalers are spending way too much money. They don't know what they're actually going to get. And while that is true, as you will see here, some are being paid and some are not being paid. So, that's where we we actually start to see winners and losers. So, we're going to use our Aslam cycle analysis to help to put some context around these movements in price, which have been quite violent both to the upside and to the downside. Okay, so that's what we are going to do here. Let's go ahead and hop into the first one that we are going to look at, which is the public AI cloud names, and we're going to look at MSFT, of course. Okay, so this is Microsoft. Let's go ahead and pull up the weekly chart here. So, Microsoft saw move down, right? Formed a low here around 323 or so, got a rally, then sold off and moved back to this low. Now, this did not actually break down because we didn't see a close below. So, it looked back at that low, no one was there, and then it is now turning back to the upside on earnings. So, what's really interesting to me here is this old zone. Right? Right around the 462 to 468 area. We just keep moving up and down versus that, right? You can see right here, right here, right there, and now we are actually back at that. So, based on where we are right now and in terms of that intermediate-term translation, we're going to be looking for this to continue through that area, form a right-hand translation, get a move down, and then another move back to the upside. Would not be surprised at all to see new highs in time here in MSFT based on this overall structure that we are looking at. So, very interesting pattern to observe. If we jump over to the short-term, on the short-term, you can see we actually formed that higher low basing cycle. Please note that this is in our ASLIM Focus List, which we do update regularly and post for our Aslan level two, three, and four members, okay? So, you can see all of our work right on our website. If we see where we are right now, we did move back to these old highs now post earnings. Very nice volume bar on earnings, so let's see if this can hold up high here relative to that earnings low of day at 432.44. If it can, that would be an an interesting opportunity here that we will be watching for our level three and four traders. And we're going to be watching for this to then follow through on the upside, but again, it needs to really show some price acceptance up at these higher levels. 818 to 827 is when that next low is due. If we jump over now to Google, so this was a name that was leading and is now actually lagging a little bit. So, that's something that we have to be aware of, right? 914 to about 11:02 is when that low is due. You can see here that the RS is still down. We we use this to help us to understand phasing, okay? And it is still down. So, if that can stay down, we have a zone here from around 351 to 373. As long as we're holding below on a closing basis 373, this is still more negative and would still favor an incremental lower low versus right around 315 going trough, okay? So, I just want to be aware obviously of both sides of what we are seeing right now. Short term, you can see we are in that rising mode. So, it's acting okay. We are moving through the 61.8. So, what is this saying then? Well, now that we have moved through the 61.8, you have a 78.6 at about 362 here. So, an an okay move now in the short term in Google, we have a low that's due somewhere around 811 to 818. So, a little bit better on the short term, but has a lot of work to do on the intermediate term to really improve this pattern. If we jump over now to Amazon, so you can see this one was sitting here for a while on on Amazon, but again, you have to think about everything that Amazon is offering. They're offering Tranium, they're offering Gravitron. They have Amazon Bedrock, which is obviously all linked to the Amazon Web platform, which is you know, and has been doing very well. We then saw an earnings this has now blown out on the upside here, clearing this old swing at a 259. RS is now turning up. So, reasonable to see a move possibly up into the upper end of this zone, we'll see, but 272 to about 293 are the areas up there. Uh there's a low here 914 to about 1130. If you see the overall cycle structures that we've been seeing in Amazon, they have been positive this whole way up, right? Higher cycle highs throughout and higher cycle lows. So, this is still in an intermediate term uptrend and it's doing exactly what it needs to. So, great look here on Amazon. Short term, we had a low that was due here. It formed its low on time and then ripped right up to new highs. Again, this is another name, of course, that is in our focus list. Uh we have this old high at about 278.56 and I would say this is really similar to what we are seeing in MSFT, but just overall more interesting because uh of that intermediate term uptrend that this has been in. Um and in terms of what we are going to be watching for, again, very similarly, we're going to be watching for a post-earnings flag opportunity here uh for this to then follow through through that 280 plus area, okay? So, that's the look there at Amazon. Uh if we jump over now to Oracle, this is a big laggard uh and you can see that right here. On the intermediate term, there's a low here that is due 8:31 to about 10:19. The RS is firmly negative right now in in Oracle. So, not a good look there. 119.76 is a uh a fib and then you you have lows back there at about uh 99.47. Let's actually bring that over, 99.47. So, that way you can see that right about here. Okay? So, those are our areas down highest odds right now on the intermediate term, given that the RS is is down, would be to look for a bear flag and then still lower lows uh here in Oracle, okay? Again, low that is due 8:31 to about 10 uh 10:19. Uh short-term now. Short-term in Oracle is actually quite interesting because we have flushed out into that low and now we are going to be looking for a a little bit of a move back to the upside actually in ORCL. Uh and you you know, you you have areas which are really far up, which is not really uh I think reasonable uh right now. So, you would then draw shorter levels. So, reasonable to see a move off of this low. We would then draw it like this for a move, you know, up towards that 78.6 in the short-term, right around that 140, 158. That's a reasonable area to to really be looking at, but stay focused, I think, on what's happening on the intermediate term, which is still clearly in that corrective period. If we go ahead now and jump over to our next group, we are going to look at the vertical proprietary hyperscalers, we're going to see META, okay? And Meta, again, they had an earnings gap down, right? So, this is a really feast or famine happening right now in this larger AI compute category, you know? There are winners and losers that are clearly starting to show themselves. 921 to about 112 is when this low is due right now in Meta. We have a zone from 515 to about 467. So, uh not looking great right now on the intermediate term, albeit in this larger trading range that you're seeing there. Now, short-term, however, we had a low that was due here, 727 to 85. So, this sold right off into this old low, into that cycle trough, and is very likely trying to form that low. Uh on the upside, we have uh a fib here from around 586 to about 605. So, you know, we'd be looking for a little uptick there. And then for this to roll its way back down again. So, it was just a short-term flip opportunity there, uh likely to the upside, after which it based on where we are on the weekly, would turn down. We'll have to just simply watch that, but um more interested, frankly, on the short side in that name versus anything else. So, uh jump over to SpaceX AI. Again, obviously, this is a new IPO. We won't have any cycles on this, but I did want to show it to you. This was the IPO. Moved all the way up to 226 or so, right? And then has been more than cut in half down to 109. Got to watch what happens after after earnings here, uh as it's just hovering near lows. It says that their earnings, again, 84 after hours. Again, please use other resources for that because thinkorswim is not always right on that. Okay, let's go ahead and jump over now to the Neo Clouds. I'm going to show you CoreWeave, okay? Uh this is CRWV, and also a fairly new IPO, and it's just hovering around lows. Now, we don't have enough data for really clear and consistent cycles. So, it it's still, you know, fairly young, but I have overlaid this on the chart here for us to look at for now, which is right on 16 bars. So, right now, it says that there is a load that is due shortly. Again, just take that with a grain of salt just based on how much data that we have. It It is fairly limited right now. Short term, okay? So, this is a longer 34-bar here, which is then broken up into 17-bar minors. You can see very clean money flow patterns that I'm just going to draw for you in CRWV, right? This is really very clear. And right now, given that we have lost that low at 79.46, I'm looking at this on the longer cycle as in a left-hand translation. Now, we just formed a minor half low, so we're seeing a little uptick here. As long as we're holding below that 78.6 at 87.73, and we see a failure over the next week to week and a half, approximately, the overall translation would stay as a left-hand translation, okay? Unfortunately here, we have earnings. Uh here it says, again, please use other sources, but right now it says 8:11 after hours on Thinkorswim. So, I'm I you know, we have to watch and see what happens there, of course, but the ideal move would be something like that, where it moves up a little bit more, then rolls over and curls down into that low, again, 8:18 to about 8:25 is when that trough is due. If it moves through the 78.6 at 8773, that says a late low has formed. Right now, there isn't any strong evidence linked to that. The RS is down, the slim ribbon is down, so that's where we are right now. Jump over to NBIS. Okay, this is NBIS. I've also overlaid a cycle bracket here just for us to look at right around 22 bars. Not a ton of data, uh but it says that there is a low that is due shortly around here. Now, on the short-term, 29 bars, okay, we have a trough that is due 717 to about 731. We tried to form a low, got a weak rally, and then quickly flushed through the low. One thing that Slim actually highlights in in his cycle workshop is this same concept, right? How do you know or how do you have have that sense for when this is a late low versus a left-hand translation? Again, look at his workshop to really understand that cuz that's one of those key nuances, right? To understand cycle shapes and how translations happen. So, right now, I'm looking at this as a late low, and we need to see it number one, move through the 78.6 drawn from that lower high to this low. That's at 212 14. If it can do that, then on the upside, you have a zone from 222 up to 240. Again, one step at a time, but this needs to obviously rebuild. This was one of of of those names that situational awareness was long. Uh and uh unfortunately, they did get obviously blown out, moving from 300 all the way down to 150 in a very short time period is going to do that to you if you don't have any risk management, right? So, this is this is really where we are right now. RS needs to actually turn up. Slim Ribbon needs to turn neutral to see a a confirmed shift in in that bias, all right? So, that's where we are right now in NBIS. Okay, so that's our look at the stock sectors on AI compute stocks. You're you're seeing clearly, right, that there are some winners showing up and then other losers, right? Names like MSFT, Amazon are clear winners right now as they have obviously been spending hundreds of billions of dollars um really building out the AI infrastructure that they see as you know, huge opportunities. And they're starting to see, as we saw in their earnings, they're starting to see payback already. Uh and that is obviously more favorable. There are others who are obviously lagging. Names like META, obviously lagging as they are trying to orchestrate a clear pivot in their overall business, trying to find new opportunities for growth. And there are other you know, there are other names like Oracle who are just saddled with a ton of debt and are having trouble in spite of having a solid cloud business, having trouble scaling. So, these are things that they're that every company needs to kind of work through, but we can follow the higher level story plus our technicals including relative strength, relative weakness within these themes to understand you know, where there is real buying versus where there is just noise, right? And I think that's the most important thing that we have to really to really isolate from this is, you know, where are there clear shifts happening and where is there not? And you can do this across all of the sectors, right? There are clear themes within each sector that really need to be isolated. And then as you identify a theme that is happening either to the upside or to the downside, by the way, you'll see that those same setups across all of those underlying in a given theme. Just like of late we saw it in the cyber names, right? They all moved up at the same time. They were all showing relative strength at the same time as there was again that higher level narrative that, you know, we were going to be having a lot more cyber security issues as it links to AI. So they all moved up at the same time. They all set up at the same time. And then of late we saw it in the AI software cloud names like D-Dog and Snow. They were all holding tight at the same time and they all actually followed through to the upside on Wednesday while the overall market was selling off. Like that is a theme plus relative strength. So these are things that we have to hit on. You know, I you know, do highlight a lot of this in office hours for ASLIM level two, three, and four members every Thursday. So you know, please join us there if you're interested in really trying to to improve your filtering ability. That's what I I see office hours as most valuable for and not just sharing a chart. It's it's really far more granular than that. We're we're we are really focusing on understanding filtering and how to really filter your opportunities properly, okay? So again, this is our our stock success video for Friday, July 31st 2026. Okay, now let's go ahead and hop over to the ASlim Day Trader special. Again, buy 2 months get one free. This is the final weekend. Again, you can use the ASlim Day Trader service to avoid those lower quality trades, stay in those more dominant trends for longer, right? That's where uh on average most folks find the greatest benefit. Number one is to not fade trends and to rather go with and to understand as an added benefit when you're in a more noisy environment versus when you're in a more trending environment. That's such a a key aspect of the service and uh as always you will get our key levels on the upside and and downside that Matt does outline. As you can see in the Day Trader cockpit one on the left here, you have Slim's impulse monitor. You have the 8-minute strategy grid right here. And uh then you on on the right there, you have uh the uh the SAR intraday grid with our key levels uh along with our indicators to help you to understand uh what that core bias is, where you could look for actual turns, and when you can importantly also look for acceleration points through zones as well. And finally in cockpit two, you have the ESN NQ futures across three different time frames and to help you hone in on your execution opportunities. And it always starts from a higher time frame and then gets more granular so that way you can ensure that that wind uh is at your back. And if you are interested in signing up uh for the ASlim Day Trader service, please head over to aslim.com, click on the Day Trader special button in the top right, and you can learn more. Okay, so this is the ASlim stock market outlook for Friday, July 31st, 2026. And here is our weekly cycle analysis chart for the S&P 500 SPX and we are still sitting inside of this larger trading range that we have been in for a while. For the past several weeks in these both Friday and then Wednesday videos that I do I have been honing in on the fact that we are really staying in range. We had brief moments where we moved out of range, but if you go under the hood and look at the sectors it was far more rotational in nature versus anything more significant. And I think that's a really important thing to observe, right? Because when the market is actually going to move in a meaningful way directionally you would see the sectors also align right? And what has been happening throughout this whole time period here is just individual sectors moving right? But no broad-based selling, no real widening out in breath on the downside, meaning down issues, right? We It just really has not been happening. We've only been seeing weakening breath, not anything more significant than that. Um so, this is I think something that we have to observe and actually call out here. In terms of the overall timing, 83 to about 914 is when that low is due. You know, we are still sitting inside on a closing basis inside of that larger diamond that Slim has highlighted here. There is a 236 fib, which we held actually perfectly at right around 7312 uh in the S&P 500. And the RS has been red, but it has not obviously seen any meaningful selling that has been all that lasting, at least yet. In terms of our areas underneath that, we have a 38.2 fib at about 7129. And on the upside, we have two areas here, 7631 up to 7800 or so. Short-term, okay, so we have the same SPY uh and QQQ uh here in blue, and we have the IWMs uh in green. And you can see that there was a low that was due in the SPY and the QQQ cycle, 728 to about 86. We sold off uh obviously into that FOMC day, and then stopped on a dime, and are sitting here, okay? So, we are still firmly inside of that trading range. This is a lower low versus that low, but look at the overall condition of that slim ribbon. It is very flat. We are not really in parallel on the downside like you were here, right? You are overall flat. That is showing you what that core bias is right now in the market. It is very neutral uh for the SPX. Again, 728 to 85 is when that low was due. We did sell off right into that, and are now holding. On the upside, we have this old high here at 7581. On the downside, we have two areas, 7290 to around 7236. Until you lose those on a closing basis, there really isn't anything happening to the downside in the market, right? And I think that's okay to also surface, right? When there isn't anything happening, you have to surface that. When there is, you also need you know, obviously have have to surface that. But there are times like where we are now, where in terms of the overall index, you're in a really choppy environment. Now, that said, there have been a ton of shorter time frame opportunities in individuals sectors, and obviously intraday has been pretty incredible. When this range does eventually resolve either higher or lower, you know, that's it that will very likely create a directional opportunity. But we have to to surface when there isn't much happening on a, again, multi-week basis, right? Like like like right now, there isn't anything really happening. Yet, you need to see sectors align, you need to see the RUT also align, right? And it's a lot of pushing and pulling going on in the market, even in our stock sectors video that I just did, you could see there were some things up, some things down, right? So, there's there's a lot of that going on in the market, so it's really important uh if you are going to be focusing on the indexes, uh ensure that it is in alignment with your overall style. If if you're looking at trends, well, of late there have been trends down uh in the NDX, right? Which obviously recently came into a short-term low, but there were opportunities in the NDX while the SPX was not really doing anything uh on a shorter time frame basis. So, uh these are things that you have to always surface, right? Ensure that the underlying that you are honing in on and interested in actually trading is in fact meeting your core criteria that is truly foundational to your strategy, right? Uh so, that's something we need to always be looking at if we're finding ourselves in a trading rut, try to figure out why, try to figure out what you can do to improve for that next cycle. Okay, so that's where we are right now in the S&P 500. And we would ask everybody to take a look at our day trader service special offer. Again, final weekend here. It's 2 months of day trader and you get one for free, only 8990. Stay in those moves for a longer time period, avoid fading trends, understanding environment. Those are key tenants that the day trader service was really built on and if you really internalize that, focus on that, spend time understanding the service, you know, we think you will find a ton of value there. If you are interested in signing up for the ASLIM day trader service, please go to aslim.com, click the day trader special button in the top right hand corner. If you have any questions, please write to Matt at asklim.com. And that is our ASLIM stock market brief for Friday, July 31st, 2026. As always, if you have any questions or comments, please let us know. Thank you and have a good day.