Stock Sectors - AI Compute Stocks | Winners and Losers are Emerging

Okay, so this is the stock sectors on AI compute stocks for Friday, July 31st, 2026. And how we are actually going to break up this segment is into three separate areas within AI compute. We are going to first look at the public AI cloud hyperscalers, right? Think MSFT, Google, Amazon, Oracle. And after that, we will look at the vertical proprietary hyperscalers, names like Meta, SpaceX AI, right? Are two examples that we're actually going to cover. And finally, we are going to look at the neo clouds, uh which are names like CoreWeave and NVIS. So, I think this will be interesting cuz uh one of the really important things is to evaluate how narratives change over time, right? There was a view that hyperscalers are spending way too much money. They don't know what they're actually going to get. And while that is true, as you will see here, some are being paid and some are not being paid. So, that's where we we actually start to see winners and losers. So, we're going to use our ASLIM cycle analysis to help to uh put some context around these movements in price, which have been quite violent both to the upside and to the downside. Okay, so that's what we are going to do here. Let's go ahead and hop into the first one that we are going to look at, which is the public AI cloud names, and we're going to look at MSFT, of course. Okay, so this is Microsoft. Let's go ahead and pull up the weekly chart here. So, Microsoft saw a move down, right? Formed a low here, back around 323 or so, got a rally then sold off and moved back to this low. Now, this did not actually break down because we didn't see a close below. So, it looked back at that low, no one was there, and then it is now turning back to the upside on earnings. So, what's really interesting to me here is this old zone. All right. Right around the 462 to 468 area. We just keep moving up and down versus that, right? You can see right here, right here, right there, and now we are actually back at that. So, based on where we are right now and in terms of that intermediate term translation, we're going to be looking for this to continue through that area, form a right-hand translation, get a move down, and then another move back to the upside. Would not be surprised at all to see new highs in time here in MSFT based on this overall structure that we are looking at. So, very interesting pattern to observe. If we jump over to the short term, on the short term, you can see we actually formed that higher low basing cycle. Please note that this is in our ASLIM focus list, which we do update regularly and post for our ASLIM level two, three, and four members, okay? So, you can see all of our work uh right on our website. If we see where we are right now, we did move back to these old highs now post earnings, very nice volume bar on earnings. So, let's see if this can hold up high here relative to that earnings low of day at 432.44. If If can, that would be an an interesting opportunity here that we will be watching uh for our level three and four traders. Uh and we're going to be watching for this to then follow through on the upside. But again, it needs to really show some price acceptance up at these higher levels. 818 to 827 is when that next low is due. If we jump over now to Google, so this was a name that was leading and is now actually lagging a little bit. So that's something that we have to be aware of, right? 914 to about 11:02 is when that low is due. You can see here that the RS is still down. We We use this to help us to understand phasing, okay? And it is still down. So if that can stay down, we have a zone here from around 351 to 373. As long as we're holding below on a closing basis, 373, this is still more negative and would still favor an incremental lower low versus right around 315 going into that trough, okay? So I just want to be aware, obviously, of both sides of what we are seeing right now. Short-term, you can see we are in that rising mode. So it's acting okay. We are moving through the 61.8. So what is this saying then? Well, now that we have moved through the 61.8, you have a 78.6 at about 362 here. So an an okay move now in the short-term in Google, we have a low that's due from around 811 to 818. So a little bit better on the short-term, but has a lot of work to do on the intermediate term to really improve this pattern. If we jump over now to Amazon, so you can see this one was sitting here for a while on on Amazon. But again, you have to think about everything that Amazon is offering. They're offering Trainium. they're offering gravitron. They have Amazon bedrock which is obviously all linked to the Amazon web platform, which is you know, and has been doing very well. We then saw an earnings this has now blown out on the upside here clearing this old swing at a 259. RS is now turning up. So, reasonable to see a move possibly up into the upper end of this zone, we'll see, but 272 to about 293 are the areas up there. Uh there's a low here 914 to about 1130. If you see the overall cycle structures that we've been seeing in Amazon, they have been positive this whole way up, right? Higher cycle highs throughout and higher cycle lows. So, this is still in an intermediate term uptrend and it's doing exactly what it needs to. So, great look here on Amazon. Short-term, we have a low that was due here. It formed its low on time and then ripped right up to new highs. Again, this is another name, of course, that is in our focus list. We have this old high at about 278.56 and I would say this is really similar to what we are seeing in MSFT, but just overall more interesting because uh of that intermediate term uptrend that this has been in. Um and in terms of what we are going to be watching for, again, very similarly, we're going to be watching for a post-earnings flag opportunity here uh for this to then follow through through that 280 plus area, okay? So, that's the look there at Amazon. Uh if we jump over now to Oracle, this is a big laggard uh and you can see that right here on the intermediate term, there's a low here that is due 831 to about 1019. The RS is firmly negative right now in a in Oracle. So, not a good look there. 119.76 is a a fib and then you have lows back there at about 99.47. Let's actually bring that over 99.47. So, that way you can see that. Right about here. Okay? So, those are our areas down highest odds right now on the intermediate term given that the RS is is down would be to look for a bear flag and then still lower lows here in Oracle. Okay? Again, a low that is due 8:31 to about 10 uh 10:19. Short-term now, short-term in Oracle is actually quite interesting because we have flushed out into that low and now we are going to be looking for a a little bit of a move back to the upside actually in ORCL. Uh and you know, you you have areas which are really far up which is not really I think reasonable right now. So, you would then draw shorter levels. So, reasonable to see a move off of this low. We would then draw it like this for a move you know, up towards that 78.6 in the short-term right around that 140 158. That's a reasonable area to to really be looking at. But, stay focused I think on what's happening on the intermediate term which is still clearly in that corrective period. If we go ahead now and jump over to our next group, we're going to look at the vertical proprietary hyperscalers, we're going to see META. Okay? And META again, they had an earnings gap down, right? So, this is really feast or famine happening right now in this larger AI compute category, you know? There are winners and losers that are clearly starting to show themselves. 9:21 to about 11:02 is when this low is due right now in META. We have a zone from 5:15 to about 4:67. So, uh not looking great right now on the intermediate term, albeit in this larger trading range that you're seeing there. Now, short-term, however, we had a low that was due here, 727 to 85. So, this sold right off into this old low, into that cycle trough, and is very likely trying to form that low. Uh on the upside, we have uh a fib here from around 586 to about 605. So, you know, we'd be looking for a little uptick there, and then for this to roll its way back down again. So, it was just a short-term flip opportunity there, uh likely to the upside, after which it based on where we are on the weekly, would turn down. Uh we'll have to just simply watch that, but um more interested, frankly, on the short side in that name versus anything else. So, uh jump over to SpaceX AI. Again, obviously, this is a new IPO. We won't have any cycles on this, but I did want to show it to you. This was the IPO. Moved all the way up to 226 or so, right? And has been more than cut in half, down to 109. Got to watch what happens after after earnings here, as it's just hovering near lows. It says that there are earnings, again, 84 after hours. Again, please use other resources for that, because thinkorswim is not always right on that. Okay, let's go ahead and jump over now to the Neo Clouds. I'm going to show you CoreWeave, okay? Uh this is CRWV, and also a fairly new IPO, and it's just hovering around lows. Now, we don't have enough data for really clear and consistent cycles. It it's still, you know, fairly young, but I have overlaid this on the chart here for us to look at for now, which which right on 16 bars. So, right now, it says that there is a load that is due shortly. Again, just take that with a grain of salt just based on how much data that we have. It It is fairly limited right now. Short term Okay, so this is a longer 34-bar here which is then broken up into 17-bar minors. You can see very clean money flow patterns that I'm just going to draw for you in CRWV, right? This is really very clear. And right now, given that we have lost that low at 79.46, I'm looking at this on the longer cycle as in a left-hand translation. Now, we just formed a minor half low, so we're seeing a little uptick here. As long as we're holding below that 78.6 at 87.73 and we see a failure over the next week to week and a half, approximately, the overall translation would stay as a left-hand translation, okay? Unfortunately here, we have earnings. Uh here it says, again, please use other sources, but right now it says A11 after hours on ThinkorSwim. So, I I you know, we have to watch and see what happens there, of course, but the ideal move would be something like that, where it moves up a little bit more, then rolls over and curls down into that low, again, 818 to about 825 is when that trough is due. If it moves through the 78.6 at 87.73, that says a late low has formed. Right now, there isn't any strong evidence linked to that. The RS is down, the slim ribbon is down, so that's where we are right now. Jump over to NBIS. Okay, this is NBIS. I've also overlaid a cycle bracket here just for us to look at right around 22 bars, not a ton of data. Uh but it says that there is a low that is due shortly around here. Now, on the short-term, 29 bars, okay, we have a trough that is due 717 to about 731. We tried to form a low, got a weak rally, and then quickly flushed through the low. One thing that Slim actually highlights in in his cycle workshop is this same concept, right? How do you know or how do you have have that sense for when this is a late low versus a left-hand translation. Again, look at his workshop to really understand that cuz that's one of those key nuances, right? To understand cycle shapes and how translations happen. So, right now, I'm looking at this as a late low, and we need to see it, number one, move through the 78.6 drawn from that lower high to this low. That's at 21214. If it can do that, then on the upside, you have a zone from 222 up to 240. Again, one step at a time, but this needs to obviously rebuild. This was one of of of those names that situational awareness was long. Uh and unfortunately, they did get obviously blown out. Moving from 300 all the way down to 150 in a very short time period is going to do that to you if you don't have any risk management, right? So, this is this is really where we are right now. RS needs to actually turn up. Slim Ribbon needs to turn neutral to see a a confirmed shift in in that bias, all right? So, that's where we are right now in NBIS. Okay, so that's our look at the stock sectors on AI compute stocks. You're you're seeing clearly, right, that there are some winners showing up, and then other losers, right? Names like MSFT, Amazon are clear winners right now as they have obviously been spending hundreds of billions of dollars, you know, really building out the AI infrastructure that they see as, you know, huge opportunities. And they're starting to see, as we saw in their earnings, they're starting to see payback already. Uh and that is obviously more favorable. There are others who are obviously lagging. Names like META obviously lagging as they are trying to orchestrate a clear pivot in their overall business, trying to find new opportunities for growth. And there are other, you know, there are other names like Oracle who are just saddled with a ton of debt and are having trouble in spite of having a solid cloud business, having trouble scaling. So, uh these are things that uh they're that um every company needs to kind of work through, but we can follow the higher-level story plus our technicals including relative strength, relative weakness within these themes to understand, you know, where there is real buying versus where there is just noise, right? And I I think that's the most important thing that we have to really uh to really isolate from this is, you know, where are there clear shifts happening and where is there not. And you can do this across all of the sectors, right? Uh there are clear themes within each sector that really need to be isolated. And then as you identify a theme that is happening either to the upside or to the downside, by the way, you'll see that those same setups across all of those underlying in a given theme. Uh just like of late we saw it in uh the cyber names, right? They all moved up at the same time. They were all showing relative strength at the same time as there was again that higher level narrative uh that, you know, we were going to be having a lot more cybersecurity issues as it links to AI. So, they all moved up at the same time. They all set up at the same time. And then of late we saw it in the AI software cloud names like D Dog and Snow. They were all holding tight at the same time and they all actually followed through to the upside on Wednesday while the overall market was selling off. Like that is a theme plus relative strength. So, these are things that we have to hit on. And you know, I I uh you know, do highlight a lot of this in office hours uh for Aslan level two, three, and four members uh every Thursday. So, uh you know, please join us there if you're interested in really uh trying to to improve your filtering ability. That's what I I see office hours as most valuable for not just sharing a chart. It's uh it's really far more granular than that where we're we are really focusing on understanding filtering and how to really filter your opportunities properly okay? Uh so, again, this is our uh our stock success video uh for Friday, July 31st, 2026.