FIQUE RICO COM AS ELEIÇÕES EM 2026 | Onde investir durante a CRISE?

In today's video, I'm going to show you how this year's 2026 presidential elections could be the investment opportunity of a lifetime. I know it sounds crazy, after all, an election year is synonymous with uncertainty, volatility, alarmist headlines, and a lot of fear. But in today's video, I'm going to prove to you with real data, backed by history, that every time Brazil entered an election year with uncertainty in the air, with high interest rates, a nervous market, and people thinking the country was going to collapse, those who positioned themselves correctly made a lot of money. And today's video is to give you clarity on how to do that. But before we begin, I need to ask you something very simple, like with all my videos: leave a like on this video and subscribe to the channel, especially if you've been watching us for a long time and haven't subscribed yet. This is very important for YouTube to understand that this type of content is relevant to your life, and it also shows that you like this type of video, motivating my team to produce more. Now let's get down to business, let's get down to business, shall we? To start today's video, I need to take you back 24 years, to the year 2002. It was October, and Brazil was in crisis. You may not remember, but at that time Lula was leading all the election polls by a wide margin. The dollar, which had started the year at R$ 2.30, exploded to almost four. Brazil's risk rating hit a record high. The country's most respected economists were saying that Brazil is on the verge of default. And the story of the default was becoming fashionable at that time, as our Argentine neighbors had just pulled off the biggest default in history up to that point. Everyone thought we were the next ones to default on our debt. And in this pleasant climate, the Ibovespa, which is the Brazilian stock market index, closed 2002 with a drop of almost 21%. A huge devaluation. That's in reais, because in dollars the drop was greater, it was 36%. And then the money would vanish from the purse like water down a drain, with no sign of stopping. And those who were still invested watched their assets melt away. It was painful, it was like a little stab every day. While everyone was running for the exit in desperation, the market turned. And then in 2003 the stock market went up 61%. This means that someone who invested R$100,000 in January 2003 ended up with more than R$160,000 (R$1,000 more at the end of the year), and it didn't stop there, because those who remained invested throughout this cycle from 2002 to 2007 saw the stock market multiply more than four times. But this wasn't a coincidence, because if you look at what happened in all the other election years in Brazil since then, you'll notice that this pattern repeated itself almost every time. In 2002, the Ibovespa closed the year at 11,000 points. The following year, 21,000 points. An increase of 61%. In 2006, the Ibovespa closed at 44,000. In 2007, 63,000. an increase of 44%. In 2010, the Bovespa index closed at 69,000 points, marking the first time the pattern had broken. The following years were very difficult. Then Brazil went through a fiscal deterioration, a fall in commodities prices, the Dilma government, all at the same time. And a year later, in 2011, the Ibovespa fell to 56,000 points. But that was the exception; in all other election years, the script was the same. Whoever took a stand first won. In 2014, the Ibovespa closed at 50,000 after a terrible year. But do you know what happened to the stock market right after that? It went from 44,000 to over 60,000 points in 2016, a return of more than 20%. In 2018 it 's the same thing. Ibovespa closed at 87,000 and then a year later at 2019,000 points. A 32% increase in a single year. The same thing happened in 2022, closing at 109,000 points. In 2023 it rose to 134,000. And now in 2026, as I record this video, the Ibovespa is already at 185,000 points. Once again, the pattern is repeating itself. Election years are usually marked by uncertainty and volatility, but those who take a stand before the elections, who control their emotions, who don't let fear paralyze them, historically tend to manage a lot of money. And for you to understand the magnitude of the opportunity that's right before your eyes in these 2026 elections, I need to tell you what's really at stake. After all, it 's April, and the in-person election is in October. And what market experts, economic data, and election polls are showing is this. We have a scenario of extreme polarization between two completely opposing economic projects. A scenario very similar to the last election in 2022. On one side you have the current government which, in the last 3 years, increased taxes, expanded social spending and, even with increased revenue, ended up spending more than it collected in recent years . So, in the year 2025, for example, the government closed with a primary deficit of 61 billion. Public debt has also risen and is now at almost 80% of GDP. And on the other side, we have the opposition, led in the polls by Flávio Bolsonaro, who is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and who inherited his father's political base to run for president. Obviously, it's impossible to predict exactly who will win the 2026 elections. Nobody has a crystal ball. If we look at the polls, the two sides are fairly evenly matched. And at Causche, for example, which is a large brokerage firm specializing in futures betting, almost like a financial market betting exchange, the odds are 46% for Flávio Bolsonaro against 42% for Lula. So, even though based on Causi's information Bolsonaro has a better chance of winning, even those who bet real money on the outcome can't point to a favorite, of course. So, both sides have a real chance to turn the game around and win. Therefore, it makes no sense to try to predict anything and position your investment portfolio for candidate A or B, since both have a chance. If you do that, you could end up losing part of your wealth and becoming very frustrated. What's really at stake, and what most people have n't realized yet, is that the secret isn't in correctly predicting the election winner and positioning oneself according to the scenarios each candidate might generate. The secret to making money from elections is something else entirely. In fact, there are three things that can accelerate your enrichment process in these elections. The first one, which I explained a moment ago, is timing. Those who made real money in the last elections didn't wait for candidate A or B to take office before taking a position. Those who made money bought before any scenario was defined. This has happened in virtually every election over the last 24 years. So you need to position yourself before others do. It's that simple. The question that remains is, where should we position ourselves then? That's because the Ibovespa index went from 130,000 points to over 180,000 in the last 12 months. And this is where the second way you can make money from elections comes in. I call it smart money. You need to understand that, no matter how hard you try , you'll hardly invest better than the big market investors. You can study, gain experience, and all that, but investing on your own is very complicated. Let me show you what proves this, something most people didn't even know existed. Every month, BTG, one of the largest banks in Brazil, interviews dozens of fund managers, family offices, and institutional investors. It's the famous smart money of the market. And this bank interviews these people and asks them about how they are positioning themselves, what they are buying, what they are selling, and what they think will happen to the stock market in the coming months. All of this is public knowledge, and practically nobody knows it exists. Now, take a look at how interesting this is. In May 2025, 54% of the managers surveyed considered the Ibovespa undervalued. They thought our bag was cheap, and they were right. The stock market was at 130,000 points at that time. In July, that number rose to 63%. The peak of optimism regarding the cheap stock market was here. Then in September that number started to fall, it went to 58%, and now in February 2026, in the last available report, only 21% still think the stock market is undervalued. In less than 9 months, the narrative of cheap stocks disappeared. The situation has changed completely. This means that the window of opportunity with discounted prices is almost over. This means that managers positioned themselves before this entire increase, and that's why most of them are already ahead of you. And I can tell you with all the certainty that I warned you. I'm tired of warning here on the channel about the opportunities that existed in the stock market, even with thousands of people criticizing me and pointing fingers, saying it was impossible for the stock market to rise with the elections approaching and Celqu at 15%. Proof of this is that on September 23, 2025, the Conibovespa was still below 140,000 points. I posted a video here on the channel titled "Get Rich with Stocks in the 2025 Crisis." In that video, I put together a presentation on a whiteboard. I brought a study done by the FCL analysis team that compared two things in detail. The first was the EBIT of our stock exchange, which is nothing more than the operating profit of companies before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. And the second thing analyzed was the price of our stock market. Based on this study, we discovered that since 2021 the Brazilian stock market has experienced what analysts call a "crocodile's mouth" (a period of intense volatility). Corporate profits increased but share prices remained completely stagnant. And the two lines opened up like the mouth of an alligator. Historically, that mouth always shuts. Sooner or later, either the stock market goes up to meet the profits, or the profits go down to meet the stock market. And that's exactly what happened. From September 2025 to February 2026, the Ibovespa rose from 140,000 points to almost 190,000 points. The alligator's mouth began to close, and those who listened to me and had a portion of their assets invested in the stock market saw their money rise by more than 35% in 6 months. His mouth practically shut at that moment. And do you know what that means to you? It means you've already lost a large part of the team . The stock market rally is already happening; the smart money in the market was already positioned to take advantage of the increase. And the argument that the stock market is cheap because company profits have grown and prices haven't kept pace is no longer as obvious as it was a few months ago. The market has corrected this distortion, and that's precisely why you need help investing from now on. Obviously, the stock market can still go up, but we can no longer rely solely on the structural discount of the stock market. The number of companies that are still discounted has decreased, and finding these stocks has become much more difficult. But the living proof that great opportunities still exist in the stock market, even with elections approaching, the whole world on fire, and the alligator's mouth closing, is the recommendation that the Finclass team made on January 12, 2026. On that day, Finclass released a recommendation for Prio, an oil company on the Brazilian stock exchange. And from that day until the moment I'm recording this video, Priam's shares are up more than 60%. It was only three months and the return was absurdly high. And that's exactly why I want to tell you about Finclass's anniversary before continuing the video. Finclass is celebrating its 5th anniversary this April, and you'll be able to subscribe to the platform with a 50% discount on the annual plan. But what you find inside Finclass isn't just theory; it's exactly what I just showed you in practice. It's a team of professional analysts who monitor the market daily, identifying companies that are still undervalued, even as the alligator's mouth closes, and delivering a complete investment portfolio to you. You'll know exactly what to buy, how much to allocate to each position, and when to sell. Pri's actions were only one of the FCAS recommendations. Those who followed this strategy guided over 60% growth in 3 months, but there are several other recommended assets in our portfolios. So scan the Kode that's appearing on the screen, or click the link in this video's description, fill in the information correctly, and participate in Fincas' 5th anniversary. You've already lost a portion of the stock market team. The alligator's mouth is closing, and the few companies that remain and still have significant growth potential are hard to find. What's left? So this is where the third way you can make money from elections comes in. I call it the money map. Because even without knowing who will win, we have a map. A map that shows you exactly which assets will rise in each possible scenario and which will rise in both. And when you have this map in your hand, you stop rooting for candidate A or B. You stop getting anxious about every poll that comes out. You stop seeing political news as a threat to your own assets and you start seeing it as an opportunity. And now I'm going to present you with two possible scenarios. In each one, I 'll show you what tends to happen with the economy and your investments. Scenario one is the reelection of the current government. In this scenario, the premise is a continuation of what has already happened in the last 3 years of Lula's government. More spending, more social programs, public debt on a steady trajectory. And then the Central Bank would have great difficulty cutting interest rates in such an aggressive way, because the government spending more puts pressure on inflation, and high inflation forces the Central Bank to keep interest rates high. In practice, this means it will be high for a longer time. Scenario two, on the other hand, involves a change of power. In this scenario, the premise is fiscal adjustment, less spending, and an attempt to put debt on a sustainable trajectory. Then the Central Bank would probably have more room to cut the Selic rate. And as I said a little while ago in the video, nobody knows what's going to happen. Therefore, the solution is to build a portfolio that performs well in both scenarios and is already positioned to benefit from the opportunities in which each scenario proves successful . And to show you how to do that, I need to present you with a study that analyzed the behavior of Evolves and 18 sectors of the Brazilian stock market during the last five cycles of interest rate cuts in 2005, 2009, 2011, 2016, and 2023. The goal here was to understand exactly which sectors rise when interest rates fall and which rise when interest rates rise. And in cycles where Sirik fell for a longer period, such as in 2005 or 2016, the big winners were the construction sector, which rose by an average of 87% in the 12 months following the first cut. Retail with 83% profitability and information technology with 64%. So, we're talking about companies like Eetec, Cirela in Construction, Lojas Renner, CIA, Arejo, and Totos Intelbraz in Technology. And just to be clear, nothing I say here is a recommendation. I'm just presenting this in a didactic way to inspire you about the main sectors and companies that can benefit from each political and interest rate scenario. If you want to follow a recommended portfolio, I suggest you participate in the F Class anniversary. There's just one important detail that this study revealed to us, which is this: these returns only occurred in cycles where the drop in interest rates had two consequences. First, a Selic rate, a scenario of confidence in the Brazilian and global economy. When the SELIC rate cut came along with stability, the impact on these sectors was actually much worse. In some cases it was even negative. In 2023, for example, there was a cycle of cuts in the CELIC rate, but when the fiscal risk worsened, the same sectors that had done very well in previous cuts began to do poorly. In cycle X, construction fell 21% in the 12 months following the first cut, and retail fell 13%. In other words, an interest rate cut alone guarantees nothing. The whole context is important. And that's where the election comes in, because the context after the election will define whether the coming cycle of falling interest rates will be long and deep, as in 2016 when it fell from 14% to 6% in 3 years, or whether it will be interrupted, stalled by fiscal policy, as happened in 2023. So the picture looks like this: if the election results in a government with more fiscal discipline, the rate will fall more and for a longer period. The sectors that benefit the most are construction retail technology healthcare, and several others, as you can see in the previous table. But if the election results in high interest rates for longer, the sectors that perform best are precisely those that fare worst during rate cuts. I'm talking about finance energy sanitation banking and commodity exporters who profit from a rising dollar. So if you believe that government A or B will win, you can simply build your investment portfolio by heavily investing in those sectors. Now, if you want to be a little more cautious, you can invest in sectors that perform well in any scenario. And in that study, only three sectors performed well at all times, regardless of the government in power and the Selic rate. It was the electricity sanitation and banking sectors that, in literally all five cycles analyzed in this study, showed positive returns in the 12 months following the first cut. So, it's fair to say that these are perhaps the three most enduring sectors of the stock market over the last 20 years. So now the question is: How can you build an investment portfolio that, firstly, doesn't depend on correctly predicting the outcome of the October election to be successful, and secondly, encompasses not only the stock market segment, but other segments as well? And the answer to that question lies in a philosophy that I've followed for years and that has survived all the cycles I've shown you. I invest based on the Arca methodology. In a moment, I'll quickly tell you about the opportunities that Arca can help you seize in the coming months, based on the election scenario. But before that, I have a message for you. I made a decision that will change the way over 100,000 people invest. And I want to explain why. Those who follow me already know that I invest by following Arca. It's my methodology that divides my assets into four parts, right? real estate stocks, cash and alternative assets. In 20 years, Arca beat the CDI (Brazilian interbank deposit rate), beat inflation, and worked under every type of government imaginable. Fincles provides its more than 100,000 subscribers with two recommended portfolios, and now these portfolios will follow the ARCA methodology, meaning the same logic that guides my investments can now guide yours as well. We're combining two things at the same time with this. First, an investment methodology proven over more than 100 years, and second, FC's exceptional analysis team. And besides that, I'm releasing a new book. His name is Arca, the investment philosophy that beat the market without trying to predict the future. In this book, I explain the entire methodology that has guided my investments since 2018. And for those who subscribe to Finclass during the anniversary promotion, through the link in my description, you will receive the digital version of my new book at no extra cost. So, if you want access to the digital version of my new book, click the link and participate in the birthday promotion. You won't regret it. Now, to finish the video, I mentioned here that the ark divides the assets into four classes, right? And I promised I would show you, in a quick and straightforward way, how each of these classes can help you seize the opportunities that the 2026 elections will create. And that's what we're going to do now. When we talk about Brazilian stocks, we have the Ibovespa at 185,000 points. I know the stock market has already gone up and in retrospect it looks expensive, but it's all a matter of reference. If you compare the P/E ratio of our stock exchange with the P/E ratio of other stock exchanges around the world, this exchange is cheap. The United States, for example, has a P/E ratio of 27. That's double ours, which is 13. And it's true that compared to the last 5 years of our own history, the Brazilian stock market is no longer at its lowest point. The pandemic and the difficult years of 2022-23 left Brazilians very depressed, and some of this distortion has already been corrected, but in global terms, the Brazilian stock market is still one of the cheapest in the world. Of the 40 stock exchanges listed, only Italy, Poland, India Indonesia Qatar Greece Colombia, and China are below us. There are over 30 bags that are more expensive than ours. In other words, among the world's major economies, ours is one of the cheapest. And with all these conflicts around the world, foreign money realized this and started migrating here. In the first few months of 2026 alone, even with all the political uncertainty hanging in the air, almost R$ billion of foreign capital entered the Brazilian stock exchange. And to give you an idea of ​​the magnitude of this number, the balance was negative in every year of 24. Foreigners withdrew money from here for an entire year, and now they are putting it back in. Even with the stock market being less cheap than it was, foreigners are still buying a lot from Brazil. And this flow could even intensify depending on what happens with the electoral landscape. Speaking now of fixed income, with interest rates still at a high level, the PCA+ treasury bond is paying rates above PCA plus 7% per year. But the real opportunity here isn't just the return, it's what happens when the Selica rate falls. As you saw in the video, this depends on how responsible the next president of Brazil will be in fiscal matters. But if interest rates really start to fall, we'll see the mark-to-market effect in action. I made a complete video about mark-to-market accounting; I'll leave a link in the card here if you want to watch it and understand this movement a little better . But even in a reelection scenario, where interest rates fall more slowly or simply don't fall at all, you continue to receive IPCA plus 7% per year, or your money continues to earn CDI in post-fixed positions. It's a winning position in both scenarios. In real estate investment funds, we also have opportunities, and it's perhaps the type of asset most sensitive to the interest rate cycle in the entire Brazilian stock market. When the Selic rate (Brazil's benchmark interest rate) becomes more attractive compared to fixed income investments, fund prices rise. When the Selic rate goes the opposite way, funds come under pressure. Today, the average dividend yield for investment funds is around 12% per year. In other words , if you have patience, you can invest in real estate investment trusts (REITs) and get paid to wait, receiving a monthly income while you wait for the interest rate cycle to turn. And when it turns around, at some point it will turn around, history shows that f-systems react before and during the cycle of cuts. In 2016, even before the first Selic rate cut, interest rates rose 34%, during the cycle of cuts until 2018, another 25%, and before the next cut in 2019, another 13%, and during the 2019 cut, another 19%. A new cycle of CELIC cuts has now begun. And if history repeats itself, those who have invested in real estate funds will be compensated while they wait and will capture the appreciation when the cycle starts to gain momentum. It's one of the few asset classes that pays you to be patient. And obviously I can't talk about investing in elections without talking about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the most politically uncorrelated asset in Brazil that exists. Regardless of who wins the election, Bitcoin has no tax ID number, obeys no government, and cannot be confiscated by decree. Not to mention that Bitcoin is experiencing a sharp drop, and it might make sense for you to start investing a little if you don't have any other investments. So if the election scenario worsens, if the dollar skyrockets, if inflation returns, Bitcoin can protect your money. Well folks, that's basically it. If this video opened your mind, leave a like and share it with someone who needs to see this before the elections. Big hug, see you next time.