StockTalk: The Mistake That Cost Him His Best Year

What's up everybody? Excited to be here for another great chat. We've got the one and only Stock Talk joining me on stream. We were just on spaces on Stocks on Spaces. The legend of Stocks on Spaces they call him. And now we are going to talk a little bit about the market and of course going to talk a little bit about the upcoming Wolf Conference Summit that you're going to be speaking at on Monday. Coming up quick. Let's talk market though first. Uh very tumultuous market especially for high beta stocks and that really is the area that you play in. There's a lot of stuff happening with memory, robotics, all those pieces. A lot of stuff has retraced 50% from all-time highs and I did a a live stream with Dan Niles earlier today and he does not think that this pullback is done. So, I really want to hear from you like how you're analyzing this market and how you're allocating capital within it. >> Yeah, I've been mostly over the last several weeks raising cash, uh, lowering leverage, raising cash just to increase flexibility, you know, if this sell-off does get worse. Um, this is though a pretty historic momentum sell-off. Like, you know, we've seen a couple of flash crashes in the last several years. We saw the tariff tantrum. We saw um, you know, obviously 2022, which is really a year-long bare market. Um, and we've seen corrections along the way for every any number of reasons, right? We had a deepseek selloff. We had a tariff related crash, literally 20% crash. um just a couple of weeks after that. Um and then this year, we come into this year with the market selling off at the beginning of the year in a correction. We're not beginning really couple months into the year when the Iran war started and that made oil go back up. Rate hike expectations changed and then sorry that's my dog's call. >> No, my my wife just text me that my dog just puked on her leg and the couch. Leah, you're close. Um, so we had rate hike expectations go up early in the year and that caused a 5 to 10% selloff um as well, but what makes this selloff different from those that we've seen is just the fact that it's been very targeted on AI names and all of the momentum in the market is in AI names. Those have been the best performing stocks for years now. And so me included, many people just assumed that this was a regular standard pullback in the markets and in AI stocks and you know it was going to bounce at the nearest support levels. They didn't, right? Most of those AI stocks continue to break down significantly um over the last really two months. It started June 1st um the market top was June 1st. Um and since then we've just seen a unwind right um there's been basically unabated selling in everything related to AI uh the power names the infrastructure names the semiconductor names and it's basically all traded as a proxy to SMH because that's where most of the earnings power is in those semiconductor stocks and so that getting brutalized has had been a contagion really for heck. Now, the rest of the market's held up pretty well. You know, when you look at healthcare, you look at financials, you look at staples, it's held up pretty well. So, people who have been in the boring parts of the market, let's say, or who rotated to them maybe just in time, um, they've done all right. So, they they don't really feel the pain. So, the broader I would say, you know, people who aren't in the AI trade probably haven't felt the pain of the market in the past two months. People who are in the AI trade have felt it the most. But, you know, that's a trade-off of being in the best performing trade. When it stops, when the music stops, it stops ceremoniously, right? It stops uh dramatically. And that's what we've seen in the last couple of months. So, you know, I' I've personally given a lot of gains back. I think a lot of investors have in this environment who have been in AI who wanted to stay in those names. Um, but the best you can do is manage risk along the way if you are in that scenario and just make sure you don't put yourself back into that position where your back's against the wall, you know. Um, and that's what I've been doing. So, I've been raising quite a bit of cash, [snorts] increasing my cash position over the last several weeks. Um, it's a little over 15% as of today. Um, it'll probably be much higher into the end of the week. Um, even if we're bringing into the end of the week, it's just really a matter of increasing flexibility in case there is a market regime change. And if there's not, then reallocating that capital to the best names which have pulled back a lot, right? So it's it's it's one or two one of one of those two sides. >> Okay. So I want to talk about reallocating capital, but first I want to talk risk management. Do you have hey, it's a green day or a red day. I'm I'm more inclined to buy sell. Is it specific things breaking through certain levels like you know your huge move say on Amcore and others like that? So I'm just curious how you go about risk management. >> Yeah. So you know typically I'm much stricter about risk management. What I will say is that in in June of this year I got you know carried away like many did with speculation and you know you make mistakes sometimes and that was a mistake of mine too is I didn't follow my technical risk management rules as well as I normally do. You know last year I had a really really good year performance-wise. Um, but I managed risk really well through it throughout my draw downs, you know, and this year I got a little over optimistic on the ability for some of these stocks to bounce back and did not respect a lot of those technical rules on the draw down. So typically, you know, I'm looking at daily and weekly technical structure and I'm saying, look, if I get into a stock and it breaks down on the daily and weekly chart simultaneously, that is usually an exit signal for me. And I'm like, look, I'll revisit it later. In this sell-off, I allowed that to happen on several names. I also, I think, moved my goalpost to a degree, went to the higher time frames, looked at the monthly chart, and was like, look, I can I can stomach a little bit more pain, but >> you down. >> Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. You just keep moving the moving the goalpost sometimes. So, that was a mistake. Um those are a couple mistakes that I made but typically that is how I manage my risk is according to the technical structure on a chart daily and weekly chart and I look at you know key momentum lines very often it's something like the 21week EMA is a good example of one um and I say look as long as the stock stays contained within that weekly structure then it's gravy and I'll continue to hold it right then it's just a regular pullback but in this instance there were stocks that broke below that weekly and daily structure that I out of stubbornness or out of optimism or or both held. And so that was probably my biggest risk management flaw. >> Do do you think part of it was like confidence in the fundamentals and the story? >> Yeah, I mean that's that's usually where it comes from, right? It's a it's it's conviction in the research because at the end of the day I am a research driven stock picker. So, for most of my stock picks, um, I have like a good reason to want to own it. And when the price action goes against you, you don't want to like immediately just discard the thesis. That would be crazy. It would be no point in having one. But eventually the price action forces you to, right? Like eventually you're like, "Okay, I'm not going to like lose all my capital here, right? I have to eventually um take take the loss in some cases and in some cases give back a lot of profits. For me this year on the draw down it was much more about giving back unrealized profits than it was about giving taking losses. I didn't take that many actual red losses. Like TE I was one where I took a big loss. That was my biggest loss of the year. Um >> same for Evan. >> Yeah. most of and most of them most of those names um that I took losses on were recent openings, but the names that I took the most damage on really were my unrealized uh open profits, right? Um that's what hurt me the most. That's what where I gave back the most uh performance was in those uh unrealized um positions. So, you know, in hindsight, that teaches me a couple of things and and and reinforces a few lessons, things that I frankly knew but just lost sight of in the craziness that was going on in the markets in that time. And that happens. Um, but those are things that, you know, going forward I'll continue to reinforce and be like, okay, that's what got me there in the first place, right? And that's what did a lot of like a lot of my technical strictness is what guided my performance in 24 and 25 um where I had record years because I was so strict with the technicals, right? And when stuff would break down the weekly, even though I was giving back a little bit of gains from the top, I was still getting out after a big move, right? rather than waiting for that weekly chart to break down, fall into monthly supports, and then I'm like, "Wow, and now I've given back, you know, 40 50% of the performance." That's a different story. So um that's a little bit of a difference in how and how I managed it and some of the errors I made. But I think, you know, all of this stuff kind of reinforces lessons. Whenever you see draw downs, it kind of reinforces lessons to you like, okay, I remember why I did that. You know, I remember why I I I didn't stop doing that. And then when you do stop doing it, the market bites you sometimes. You're like, "Okay, that's a rule for a reason." Um, so flexibility with some of my technical rules was a big um a big factor. >> I saw you using some I believe it was ARK puts. >> Yeah, I was. I closed those today, too, just because the hedges weren't working well for me. Like I just I've had one thing I've had trouble with doing in this market is finding an index that properly correlates to my portfolio because I don't have a ton of semiconductor exposure yet. my portfolio's traded with SMH on the way down. That's probably should have been what I hedge with in the first place. >> Um, but yeah, the hedges haven't been working well. And to be honest, I prefer reducing exposure to hedging anyway. Um, and so that's what I've been prioritizing in the last several weeks is just raising cash. >> What do you do with the cash when it's just sitting there? >> Just waiting on the market to stabilize, you know, and I I you can get a high yield um account now on on on Weeble for your cash. So, I have that, but um and most brokers offer that now. But in the meantime, it's just really waiting for the opportunity of the market to stabilize and then redeploy that capital. And so, um >> yeah. >> Yeah, that has been one of the uh the the mistakes I made this year was m basically winding down leverage too late. So, waiting too long to wind down leverage. The second thing was breaking um technical rules. Th I think those would be the two biggest things. and I'm still up nicely on the year, but just gave back a ton of unrealized performance that I shouldn't have given back. Um, and you know, there's lessons learned as a consequence of that. >> You know, what scares me a little, well, I don't know what scares me, but points me to potential more downside is when you look at these indexes that you're talking about. You know, SMH is a good example. I think QQQ, we're just we just have a huge gap here, right? There's no volume. We shot up through that whole entire area. We barely ever traded there. The 200 SMAs are way below. If you can see my screen, you know, there's there's just a lot of room here where it feels like if you just don't get some reprieve, some big buyers stepping in, you could just have another I mean, what would this drop be on QQQ if we were to come back to the 200? Uh, I mean, it's 5% on Q's. It's probably a little bit more than that on SMH uh within these areas, you know, to go from 533 to 440. And you know, we've seen in a lot of these names like like be is an interesting one because it's already sitting on its 200 a day. T you know, went through it and just flushed from there. So, it makes me feel like we just still have another >> five to 7% on some of these indices to potentially come down and then how does that affect the underlying stocks? >> It's going to hurt them. I mean, even more. I mean there's right now the the big saving grace of this market which has allowed rotation to happen is the fact the S&P 500 even though it's tucked under the 50-day hasn't really budged and you know if you can get the S&P 500 to start to cave then yeah there's going to be quite a bit of volatility. >> Yeah. SPY has been like a stalwart. I mean what it's what it's down like 3% from all time highs. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's not down much. And >> not even three. >> Yeah. Not even three. And the Q's I think today at the lows at 10 on a draw down right? >> Yeah. From the top from back in Jan 1, it's the lows today were over 10%. It finished down like 9.6. >> Yeah. So, they're right there on correction territory, too. Um, obviously the next step is a potential crash for the Q's, which you don't want to see, but that is what opens up. That's what a 10% draw down opens up, right? it's you either get a bounce or you get what would eventually be considered a crash which would be technically defined as a 20% draw down the Q. So um yeah there is stuff to be worried about certainly there is enough um >> do you try to like savily play any of this downside because you mentioned hey I don't find a good hedge but like what about just taking downside like hey I think that we're going to have downside here I'm going to play with puts I'm going to play with something else. >> Yeah. No, I will. I mean, if this market continues to wors and then there'll be a regime change and I will, you know, but I don't like to completely flip to being fully bearish on the market until the market is actually broken down, you know, because otherwise you're trying to play the guessing game between a five or a 10% correction. Right? Right now, we're right in that vein where the cues are on the precipice of it. And if they break down further, then yeah, I will be playing the shorting game that, you know, I played in 2022. I always am hesitant to get there because it is, you know, we're in a very volatile market where things can change rapidly. You know, Trump could end the war in Iran and then yields are going to come flying down and stocks will probably rip. So, you don't want to get completely offsides, right? You don't want to see this kind of selling and then then flip completely to the other side and then get chopped both ways. That would be terrible, right? So, instead, what I like to do is raise cash because that protects me against further downside, right? But also it gives me the flexibility that hey look if the markets do sour further then you know I can protect myself. So >> we have a lot of events this week. We have SK highix earnings tonight which I think are like coming up right now or around the corner. >> That's going to move the Cosby index the Korean index which was down 10% last night. >> Yeah. >> Based on that it'll probably reflect on US markets tomorrow. And then you know from there you have FOMC tomorrow, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Apple all reporting on Thursday. So you have quite a bit of catalytic ammo into the end of the week um in in terms of you know what you can see happen. Now it doesn't have to be good catalysts. It could be bad and that would be obviously not good for the markets and we would probably see the markets unwind further. But um this has been a pretty pretty insane draw down in SMH. Like SMH draw down from the highs is what from 671 to 529. What is that? >> I think by the way the SKH Highix it's like weird because it's 9:00 a.m. soul time which is maybe like 8:00 p.m. our time is going to be the call. >> Yeah. >> Um so I don't know exactly when the numbers will come out but they might be they should be out within the next two hours. >> Yeah. So SMH is down what? 21% from the highs, >> right? >> Check that real quick. >> 71 to 5. >> Fact check, fact check, fact check. >> Um, stat that uh SMH is down 21% from the highs. Yeah. >> Yeah. Okay. So, that's a pretty crazy draw down in an index, right? But it is also up substantially this year, right? >> 60% year to date still. >> Exactly. Exactly. You know, and it's coming into the 100 day today. So down slightly off the 100 day 21w week EMA also you know um is that a potential area for a bottom? Yeah, potentially. But the big thing that's going to matter here again is now the credit risk has emerged as a conversation in in capex funding. Are you going to be able to get rid of that credit risk concern? I think you need to bring yields down. So >> that 21 week is really interesting on here. >> Yeah, >> right there. It is >> right there. >> Yeah. You were saying yields, >> you're going to have to bring yields down. Um, and in order to get there, you know, you probably need to play ball geopolitically with the Iranians and get that situation sorted. And I I don't know how that's going to pan out, you know, and I don't know if the Iranians are willing to play ball either at this point because they seem to say today all day that they weren't interested in negotiations. So that is a complicated scenario and I don't know how you get permanent relief from oil with that scenario going on. We've seen this ability for oil to fall to 80 or fall to 77, jump back up to the 90s, fall back. So there's still a ton of volatility in the oil markets. >> That that's not good. Uh you don't want unpredictability, right? So markets are struggling with a lot of factors right now and it's making, you know, the guessing game harder. Could this be return of some of the mag seven potentially? Because like all these names I'm looking down my list. Nebius minus 9.5% today. SanDisk 11 12% down. MU 7 and a half%. Spy green.3%. >> Yeah. I mean that that's the thing is there's enough sectors to rotate into, right? Like you look at the indexes like today the the airlines were up, right? Because oil was down, right? Um you have a bunch of these sectors that are moving directly with oil and sympathy to oil. So you had oil down you know 5.6% today uh u I should say you know you had jets up 3% in a result of that which helped spy you had XLV up 2.4% right you had XLP up uh 2% KRE up 1.6% 6% right at one point you had IGV up two or three% but that got faded KRE banks closed up XLY closed up XLF closed up so yeah there is a pretty aggressive rotation into financials and into healthcare and into these other names and that's allowing SPY to hold up but the the tech market is getting killed um and so yeah you had a little bit of a blip of green today from from the hyperscalers maybe that's people expecting them to cut capex this week you Um, and if you if you're seeing AI trade get hit more and hyperscalers, you know, green on on anything really, um, you're going to have to be able to make that connection and say maybe the market thinks that they're going to be spending less. I mean, Amazon had a nice report today. Didn't end up closing green, but they had a nice report today about how they were refurbishing their AI strategy to get away from Frontier models. You know, that is interesting. Um, so there's a lot of dynamics going on right now in in in mega caps that the action isn't really clear to to read. You know, if you look at um if you look at Amazon for example, like today it sold below the 50-day in the morning and then recovered back above it into the clo or recovered right into it into the close I should say 230 pretty close within$ two dollars of it. Uh on the weekly, sorry, the 50we and it's below the 200 day as well, right? doesn't look like an extremely bullish chart, but two or three days of action around this 200 day and 50 week and that could reverse and then all of a sudden Amazon will look great coming off the lows. And these guys, all the mega cap guys are they've been selling or they've been flat to selling all year while the semi-trade is ripped. So yeah, if if they come out and say we're recalibrating our strategy or we're cutting capex, that's going to kill SMH even further and you likely see a bounce in in the in the mag 7 and that probably helps float the indexes because there's enough capital there. That's the one trade >> like outside of the AI trade or AI specific trade. That's the one area where there's enough room, there's enough market capitalization. Are you um are you concerned with its recent all-time highs of Apple potentially becoming the number one company in the world again by market cap? >> Um sorry that's a joke at you and Evan. >> Yeah. I mean look it's funny. >> It's a joke because it took it over today. I don't know if you saw it by the way. >> No. No. Yeah. No. Apple you're saying >> did you guys talk about it today on stream? >> Yeah we did. We did. Yeah. And and I I mentioned this and I said like look it's funny because at that time I myself and many other people were making fun of Apple because they had no AI strategy. They were doing AI. We're like what the hell are you guys doing? And it turns out that was a pretty smart decision because all these other guys got trapped into spending hundreds of billions of dollars on this and now their stocks are suffering as a consequence or they're being tied to the AI trade. they can't get any traction because either they're either the AI trade is trending up in which case they're the spenders and they're not getting any credit or the AI trade is trending down and they're getting caught up in the selling. So they've been pigeonhold this year that the Mag 7 have been um into this hyperscaler narrative and Apple has found a way to break from it and say look we are the the only guys out here that aren't committed to spending all this money. We have flexibility. We have the hardware connect still. So, Apple's kind of masterfully handled this. Um, I don't think I've seen a single we're building data center announcements for them this whole cycle, >> you know. So, they've saved >> untold amounts of money. And >> their only announcement was that >> sorry, their only announcement was that they were raising the prices on stuff because of memory. >> Yeah. Exactly. And so they're a beneficiary of it on the hardware side, but I mean um they haven't they don't have the risk that these guys have with attached to the AI trade and that's made them be able to break out and be able to retake that spot. Um so props to Evan on that because he was right about that. I told him I was like, "Dude, you were right about that." Um, yeah. So, they they skirted the uh the AI thing and it seemed like a crazy decision at the time and now they're kind of reaping the benefits of it. And I'm not saying AI is over or whatever. I'm not saying anything like that. I'm just saying they skirted the connection to AI that kept a lot of their peers stocks pinned for the whole year. They skirted that connection and that ended up being smart because their stock has performed better than their peers. >> Shout out to Apple. Uh >> Tim Apple, he didn't want to tie himself. >> Yeah, might might want to. Um one one last question here and then I want to talk a little bit about the conference which is you know there like you mentioned over and over just now there still are pockets of the market that are working really well. Like I actually was talking um we had that show with Jay Jacobs from BlackRock. he's head of ETFs and he was like pointing out this like HDV and I'm like all right high dividend equity like this is like not the interesting stuff and I was looking at the holdings just to kind of go through this and like there are some of these structured holdings whether it's like I don't know if you've been looking at pharmaceuticals um some of these pieces whether it's J&J Merc um I think even um what's the one that everyone hated uh Madna I'm pretty sure um I remember us like joking like MADNA is just like um you you know, nobody's ever going to want to buy that again, right? And it's up 87% year to date. It was up 174%. Um, until this like recent pullback. Uh, when you are like reallocating, I know you you're obviously very tech focused, right, within there and that's a specialty. Do you ever think about okay, hey, maybe I'm going to take 5 10% and play around with some of these more legacy names just because they're >> I have before. Yeah, I have before. I mean, there have been times in the market where I've done that. Um, and that that time may come again. You know, I just want to be sure that there's actual regime change as opposed to a violent rotation, which is what we've seen, you know, and that distinction is very, very, very wide. I mean, there's sometimes there's two or three months or a whole quarter worth of action where you get rotation that's aggressive. That's what we've seen. We've seen very aggressive running out of the AI trade and running into these other stocks. You know, does that last years? I don't think so. You know, does that does that last maybe a couple a few more months? Sure. And so, you have to keep measured in the attitude around it and say, okay, look, at a certain juncture there is enough pain in one sector and you look for a reversal there or you think there's more to come. And in this case, you know, a lot of people are are are stuck on that debate because yes, it's been a historic momentum selloff, but the Q's haven't moved nearly as much. The Q's are only down 10% and SPY is down, you know, like barely anything. So, is there more room for a correction? Yeah, there is. You know, because the indexes could go down further. If the indexes go down, you're not really going to find many places to hide. Now, if we get a catalyst of some kind, that could be lower rates, that could be the war in Iran ending or something like that, that could change the dynamic um for markets. And keep in mind, markets came into this year wanting to go up, too. Then that Iran war came on the front, caused markets to correct, then we were supposedly resolving it, and then we ripped. And then now we've slowly figured out that we're not resolving it, and now we've kind of began to creep back down. So, we're in this in this like, you know, we're in this unprecedented this is unprecedented market in terms of like President Trump's decision-m is just like guiding the whole market attitude and him like I know it's tough to taco now in terms of just saying we're going to negotiate, but him like walking away from the conflict for example would would still create a reaction markets. you know, it's going to be difficult for him to come out and say, "We're talking and get a 2% update like he used to be able to because now markets are just like, boy, you cried wolf." They're like, "There's no way." Like, "We're not going to buy this for the seventh straight week," right? So, um, >> that dynamic changing as well also contributed to the sell-off because Trump every time we we gap down basically tries to put up a bullish headline and they've just been getting sold into. So, that's a character change, too. So, you have to like acknowledge these character changes and be like, look, it's not the same market that it was even three months ago, right? It's a different market and now you have to play it more defensively and you have to play it like a little bit more strategically. You can't just assume that something you buy is going to get follow through and that's been a big change because you could assume that for the better part of the last three years. >> Yeah. Yeah, that's totally fair. All right. I'm going to do two things here. One, I did ask the chat just because I see some of your followers are in here. if they do have questions, you know, we'll take like a few rapidfire questions. While I'm waiting for a couple more questions to come in, just also mentioning people, we are going to talk. I just put the link for this in the chat. If you want to come hang out with us in person, the first ever Wolf Conference is going to be on Monday, this coming Monday, August 3rd. We're going to be in Manhattan. We got a beautiful venue called Convene. It's right next to Time Square. It's going to be a full day event. Breakfast included, lunch included. We're going to have live trading on stage in the morning, live trading on stage in the afternoon, breakout sessions. Stock talk's going to have an hour 20 minute slot uh as well in the afternoon uh for presenting talking about his research process, all that type of stuff. So, if you do want to come in person and I'll show you just kind of the rest of the website real quick, build, grow, retain your wealth. It's going to be really focused for traders is the specific focus here. So, if you're someone that's an active trader, right? You're in and out of stocks, you're managing your own portfolio, that is the best way to go about it. The tickets are $250. We're basically running it at break even. It includes your breakfast, your lunch, full day programming. The venues in New York are very expensive. If you need a discount code for it, go ahead and drop me a DM real quick to Wolf Financial and I will take care of you there. So, it's wolf_financial on Twitter is a good place to do it. If you're on YouTube, you can drop me a uh email to go gavwolf.finanicial and check it out. Red dog's going to be there as well. You can see a bunch of people. Yeah, we've got a great crew of Stock Talk. Peter Tuffman, by the way, apparently they're building a statue of Peter Toughman at the New York Stock Exchange. >> Um, that is happening. I don't think it's ever been done for anyone before. So, keep an eye out. That's going to happen. Uh, longest tenure trader on the floor. >> Sim's going to be there. Yeah. Scott, JC, Paper Gains. It's going to be cool stock talk to to see all these people in person. Like, I don't think you've ever done an inerson event, right? >> Um, no. No, I mean I've been to CTS and GTC, but not like an event like this. No. No. >> Yeah. So, you guys can see me and Evan. It'll be the first in-person stocks on spaces. We've been doing that show for what, three years? >> Yeah. Yeah. Be the first one. >> Pretty sick. >> Hopefully, some comfy chairs. >> Yes, we will have we'll have the comfy chairs. The layout for convene is really nice. Um, and people can see like these are some of the chairs that they have. They're pretty nice. This is for the audience. Sorry, not as nice as us, but you know, uh well, if if you're somebody who has a, you know, sore sore sciatica, let me know. We'll help out. Uh but yeah, really cool like seating and stuff like that. The food's sick. I went through the menu myself. I'm really excited about it. And then I also will just shout out before we take the questions from the audience on this tab as well. Highly, highly recommend, I did not put this in the chat yet. I am putting this in the chat right now. If you are unable to come during the day to the conference, right after the conference this Monday in New York, we are going to do a three-hour happy hour completely free to attend. It's going to run. Oh, by the way, for the conference, we have like 18 tickets left for the conference. So, we are about to hit capacity. I only have food and beverage for 180 people and that is how many people I can that can come. So, if you want to come to the conference, I would say grab your ticket now. If you want to grab a discount code, drop me a DM or an email gowolf.financial. No.com at the end. Uh, if you can't make it to the conference, people have worked during the day. I understand. 6:15 to 900 PM free happy hour that's going to be happening. I bought almost $4,000 worth of shakuderie. I've got the sweet plate, the savory plate, the meats and cheeses, all of that stuff. My wife is coming. She's setting it up everywhere. The venue is actually insane. Stock, have you seen the venue for uh the happy hour? >> I have not. >> Oh my god, bro. I have not seen a venue like this. This I feel like this is by the way very your style >> posted on I think so maybe I did see it but yeah show me. >> Yeah. Yeah. I think it's very your style. Um I say that in decent confidence. Let me go ahead and just pull this up. Uh because Sniper >> Sniper posted this, but he posts a lot. So I'm just going to try to pull back real quick. Where is this? Here it is. Okay. Um check this out. [music] Yeah, >> pretty. >> Yeah, pretty nice, right? >> That's a good vibe. Is that in Time Square? >> It's like five blocks away. >> Okay. >> Yeah, it's about a five block walk from the uh uh conference, so we're all just going to head right over there pretty much afterwards. But yeah, gorgeous. They just completely redid the place. So again, this link is in the chat. If you're in New York, I would love for you to come. Free. I'll buy you a drink if you come. That's on me. And then uh again we have just like 18 seats left for this uh conference stock talk speaking in person as well as a bunch of other great people. I think it's worth it. Invest in yourself. Listen like I I very much think that the ROI is there for an event like this in terms of people um you know coming away with good return. All right let's take some of these questions. Are you accumulating Amcor after today's 25% drop? >> Am I accumulating it? No, I'm not accumulating anything here. I'm I'm looking to raise cash mostly. Um, so no, I mean, I do think that the valuation's even cheaper now than it was. It obviously is. Um, but no, there were a couple things on the report that did concern me as well. Um, I mentioned this in the in the Discord, but first being that um their next quarter's growth is going to be roughly flat year-over-year, and the second part being the fact that they met their 2028 targets on margin guidance um this quarter. and they got asked about it and they said instead of saying that they're going to push their 2028 targets up, they acknowledged that the 2828 targets were relatively in line with that and they mentioned that the US buildout is going to be an EPS and margin headwind. So both those things were a bit uh disappointing for me. So no, I'm not accumulating it. Uh but I still have the position. Um but I'm not looking to deploy more capital here. That's I'm not looking to take on more risk. I'm looking to take on less risk. So overall in the portfolio I'm raising cash. >> Yeah, makes sense. It's it's a tough area right here because you did just knife through that 200 day SMA, but this is where all the volume is sitting, right? Like >> Yeah. Yeah. That's where all that's where all the interest in the stock is sitting. So it would be a really good place to bounce. >> Not saying that I at all saw this coming, but I did sell my entire Amcor position at $64 days ago. >> Well, there you go. Good call. I mean, nice move. >> Risk management. >> Risk management. >> Uh yeah, I was like, I want to lock in some gains. I don't want this one to because I don't have quite the gains that you have on it. So, I was like, >> "No, that makes sense." >> Yeah. I didn't want to go right on that position. Uh, all right. >> Anybody sold anything AI in the last two months probably been a good decision for them. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Probably a good decision. >> Anybody sold anything has probably gotten out of the way of a little bit of stuff. >> Should have sold my TE. >> Yeah. I know. I should have sold that a lot earlier, too. I It's so funny when I took that trade, I was like, I'm going to use a 100 day stop and then I just ignored it like an idiot. I was like, oh, a catalyst is going to come. just bad risk management for me all the way. >> Leopold's gonna double down. >> Yeah. Well, not even that, but I was just like I was seeing rumors that he had sold and I was like, this is crazy. Like, what? Like, you know, why are you just making that up? And so, I thought it was just down on a lot of stupid stuff. But it reminds me, you know, I broke a rule with mine with that stock, too, which is I never buy these popular >> Yeah. >> And I was like, there's a reason why. And I did it with that stock and then took my biggest loss of the year on it. So, I was like, this is just stupid. Like, I knew I shouldn't have bought when I was buying it. I was like, I shouldn't be buying this. >> And I did anyway, like an idiot. So, that uh that was that was an annoying one for sure. >> Happens. Happens. Uh someone asked, are there any stocks right now that you won't sell? And and I would rephrase that because I know that like listen, anything like you'll do risk management, but is is there a few that like you would hold throughout because you really are locked into that story? I mean, in terms of holding the whole position, there's no guarantee I'll ever hold the whole position on anything in terms of not selling any of the position. Um, but I do think that in terms of my exposure to the AI trade, I think those big four positions, Amcore, Vyav, OSS, ENS, those are positions where I still think they're reasonably valued. And on the other side of the AI trade, you know, I think that they'll do well. So those positions may be trimmed if the price action continues to worsen and you know they may be trimmed down but they won't be sold completely. So I'd say those four won't be sold completely. Um I don't anticipate selling BPG completely either but that stock's very expensive. And so again if if if environments change like anything can be sold. That's kind of the way I think about about stocks. like if if rates change, if going assumptions change about an industry, um a lot has changed in the AI industry in the last four weeks. >> And so if that impacts the ability for companies to grow, you know, in the medium to long term, then yeah, then then that's going to change my ability to hold them. I would say there's nothing that's completely off limits from selling, but there are stocks that like those big four that I will keep in some amount of size. Um, but right now my goal is to raise considerable amounts of cash so that I'm flexible for the postsummer period. Um so like once we come out of August like end of August I consider that the post summer period September October December November December I want to be have enough cash in that period to where what if new market leaders emerge or if new opportunities emerge that I can attack those opportunities. I don't want to be back up against the wall in all my positions. >> It is a good point people should be aware of is that we're we're moving on pretty low volume right now and people can see at the bottom of my screen here. This is just volume on spy and spy hasn't even fallen that much but look at the drop off right where you get to you know huge volume throughout here and then even since then like just all of this has not come even close and so this runup was on low volume and uh you know wouldn't be surprised if we see the same thing QQQ same thing um it's summer right I trust me I work with a lot of ETF managers all of them are on vacation like you know everybody's going to Greece everybody's doing something So, a lot of the hedge fun managers are out of office as well and uh private wealth and pieces like that. So, I think that those those do make sense. Um take one or two other questions here from the chat. Oh, uh I had one other question because you mentioned like not going after the the popular everyone's in them trades. Uh Micron is one that still stays interesting to me. Like what if they drop to like 750 or something like that? Like is it do you consider that or is it just like hey I don't go after the trillion dollar companies? No, I mean I I probably won't like buy into the memory trade. Um I I think it's going to be a great trade and you know, but it's just not really an area where I want to play the guessing game. I want to play the hot potato game of um you know, when is the cycle going to be over? When are the prices going to come down? Like there was a report out from Morgan Stanley today on them saying like look, we think prices will actually accelerate next year from memory. They say we think sometime in the second half of the year they're going to decelerate. I just don't want to play that guessing game of when prices are going to be up, down, sideways. So, that >> is is difficult for me. But, I do like the memory trade. I think it makes a lot of sense. I do get why people are in it. Um, but it's probably not going to be one that I involve myself in. There are like a lot of semiconductor stocks that are down a lot. And I think some of them are at getting a reasonable valuations, but I need to go through my sort of list, my short list if you will, on those names and try to decide which of them are most compelling. But that is going to be something I intend to do with um with my capital when uh when when markets do stabilize. and markets could stabilize as soon as, you know, this week, next week. I mean, could be as soon as tomorrow if if we get a big enough move off FOMC if if FOMC is uh >> they're not going to do anything, though. >> What do you mean? >> I'm saying they're not going to make a move. You're saying just off the word. >> Oh, yeah. I'm just saying like off of off optimism, right? like if we don't cut and we get dovish attitude from >> from WS and you know you get a very dovish speech from Walsh, you could really reverse sentiment. I mean the bond markets are what we need to respond. That's really what I think is the big headwind of speculation right now. Not even just the AI trade, but the big headwind of speculation I think is in the bond markets. And um that's what we need to change. We I think we need to see yields come materially down um and and get rid of these rate hike expectations which are [clears throat] all over the curve. >> This was funny. Someone commented. They said, "If a very wealthy Saudi prince buys millions of shares of my shitty EV manufacturer, that is an interesting change." >> Yes, that is an interesting change. I That song absolutely ripped, didn't it? >> Lucid. Which one? >> 20% today. Yeah. >> Yeah. 17.7. Yeah. Um it is kind of interesting. I will say I don't think that they're going to do anything tomorrow, but I haven't seen a Fed watch split like this in a little bit. It's 30% chance of a hike. >> Yeah, it was 40% yesterday. >> Um down. >> So, yeah, rates have changed pretty aggressively. I mean, or expectations have changed pretty aggressively. Um I don't think they're going to hike. That would be blow my mind to be honest. Um but >> crazy, bro. Imagine the Trump tweet. >> Oh my god. The market would die. Especially where the market is now, >> bro. They're like, "We're hiking and we're starting quantity of tightening." >> Yeah, that would Yeah, that game over. Like then that point you're sell. Um >> if they announced quantity of tightening, I'm selling. That's that's it. I'm done. >> Yeah. I mean that that I would sell, too. That's crazy. I mean, they've already mentioned like that they're going to be less uh dovish with the balance sheet. So, that's kind of been a forewarning from um the first meeting. Wasn't the first meeting? When was the uh first meeting? Wasn't it June? First week of June. >> You're saying first meeting for >> the Fed. This new Fed, wasn't it? Like when was that meeting? June. >> Um I've got that phone on my calendar. >> Late midmay. >> Uh that we had June 17th, April 29th, and March 18th. Those are the last three. >> Yeah. So June 17th. I mean, that's basically right around the top when we had that first meeting. you know, um, >> if they raise rates, less political donations period. [laughter] >> I thought the Fed was independent, my guy. >> Maybe that's true, though. [snorts] >> It's not wrong. He's not wrong. Here's the Fed watch, by the way, for people that want to check it out. This is for the meeting tomorrow. Um, we'll be live at probably like 2 PM covering. Please, >> what' you say? >> Scroll forward to the next meeting. The chance of a hike are like 76%. >> Uh, you're saying se Wait, September. Is September the next meeting? Okay. Uh, yeah. I mean, right now, I don't know. I mean, look at this. It's got Yeah. 76% of a hike. Wow. >> Yeah. >> And is this a chance that we would hike 50 basis points? >> Yes. Wow. Yeah. 20% chance of 50 basis points and then you know by October they're pricing a like 82% chance 83% chance. >> Yeah. 83. That's not good. >> December >> 91%. >> Yeah. >> December. I mean these are obviously all very subject to change. These are far out. >> Yeah. They're very subject to change. I mean, that thing moves like a penny stock. The >> odds, [snorts] you want my money for your campaign, give me a rate cut. [laughter] >> That's basically Yeah, that's basically how it is. Um, but yeah, I mean, I don't think they're going to raise rates. That that'd be crazy to do. I think in in in the face of an oil shock, but they may be expecting this thing to last longer. And that might be what where the thinking is coming from behind hiking in response to to this oil surge. Um but I mean it'd be silly because you know when you think about rate hikes, you're trying to hike in response to sustainable inflation, not a spike in oil um that you know is causing it. So, you know, it's surprising to me that Trump is conducting this war in one hand and then the other hand saying, "I want lower rates and like >> he knows that like the war is making oil go up which is preventing them from cutting rates." Like he should he should know that and I think he knows that. >> Um maybe he just doesn't want to accept it. But yeah, that's odd. I'm not like giving a political opinion or anything, but that's just like those are two con conflicting things that he wants. So um he's somebody's got to give you know either the war gives or rates give way to them being higher um at least real rates because you know those yields are impacting the way the markets are thinking about forward rates right the two years at 43 the five the 10 years at 46 47 uh the 30 years over 5%. So that's not good and that's not going to help markets, you know. >> Yeah. Yeah. It puts people into a tough position for sure with markets. All right. We covered a lot of good stuff on here. I think you got a what? What are you hitting the gym soon? >> Yeah, I probably am. I might have to take a nap first, but we'll see. >> Yeah, I hear you. I hear you. Gym nap time. >> Um, before we do uh go, first off, audience, appreciate everybody in the chat. Thanks for dropping comments, questions, stuff like that. um you know love to do this again at some point cover things. I just wanted to get you know one more time thoughts on uh you know maybe just you could cover for people a little bit in ahead of this conference that's coming up just like what are you going to be speaking about what should people be looking forward to especially if people are coming like that type of stuff. >> Yeah. Um I mean I'll be talking we'll be doing like like uh go said we'll be doing a inerson stocks on spaces. is I'll be talking about thematic trading and investing principles of of finding themes finding stocks within those themes um how to how to ride those stocks um costbased advantage uh compounding principles things like that I'll be talking all about thematic trading and investing um we'll also probably go through my portfolio as well um and give you guys a look at that as well just to see you know where I'm at and we'll talk about that a little bit as well um So, it should be pretty interesting. It should give you a pretty complete 360 view on the way I think about stocks and um yeah, should be fun. >> Heck yeah. Yeah, I think it's gonna be a lot of fun. Just a reminder for everyone, this is coming up really fast. It's going to be Monday. We just have a few spots left. You can grab your tickets right on summit.wolf.financial. Link is in the chat. If you want to save a little bit of money, drop me a DM on the Wolf Financial account or email me at gavwolf.finanicial and I will be happy to share one with you. We would love to have you there. And then of course some people have work during the day. If you can't make it again afterwards, Wolf Summit happy hour. Same day, Monday, August 3rd. This is going to be in New York City. It's at a great gorgeous location. Unlimited shuderie for everyone that comes. Free drinks on me. I'll open up a tab. We'll make it a good time. We'd love to see you there. All of our speakers are going to be there. Our team's going to be there. Uh it's gonna be great. We're There's also a lot of giveaways that are happening throughout this. We're giving away some of these stock cubes, by the way. I think you've seen my stock cube before. We're uh >> Oh, yeah. >> Yeah. We're giving away a couple of stock cubes. Um, which will be cool. So, I'm going to share that out. Everyone always loves those when they're in my calls and in the back of their Who was I on a call with today? That was like I love that. Oh, Dan Niles. Dan Niles love the stock cube. >> Oh, yeah. >> Great. Yeah. >> Yeah, that's sick. Those things are cool. Yeah, I want one. >> Okay. Okay. Come come. >> We'll have we'll have to enter you into it. Um, very cool. Stock talk. Great having you on. Everybody that wants to check out Stock Talk's portfolio. He does share it updated inside of Stock Talk Insiders uh which is his Discord. You can find that uh you can go right through his bio at Stock Talk Weekly. It is just through and you can join there. Um yeah, check it out. Stock talk. Anything else you want to share today? >> No, no, we'll see you guys on Monday. It should be fun. It'll be exciting. Like Gob said, we'll do a happy hour after. So I'll get to meet some of you and we'll chat, talk. Um, >> how many drinks are you throwing back at the happy hour? >> Some drinks. Yeah. What' you say? >> He said, "How many drinks are you throwing back at the happy hour?" >> I don't know. We'll see. We'll see how depending how good the conference goes. >> All right. All right. >> How many of you there are there? Okay. >> Depends on Monday either way. And then uh it should be fun like said during the day of the conference and then afterwards the happy hour. >> Hell yeah. Looking forward to it. Appreciate everyone for tuning in. Great YouTube audience today. Been doing more streams and they've been tuning in and commenting and stuff. And we actually had a nice mix. We had a lot of people on X and on YouTube commenting which is awesome. So, thanks for everyone be a part of it. This will turn into a recording as soon as we close it out. So, if you missed any of the beginning, you can go back and rewatch it. We did cover a lot of uh Stock Talks thoughts on different stocks, his portfolio, pieces like that, macro, great stuff. Thanks everyone for being on. We'll see you on the next one. Thanks for watching today's video. If you enjoyed it, go check out the Wool Financial Newsletter. Did you know that we make a ton of content? We host 60 plus hours of Twitter spaces and live streams every single week. We're posting on the timeline over and over and over. We put up YouTube videos and one of our prime gems is our newsletter and it's free into your inbox multiple times a week. We mix it up. We give stock picks, market headlines, research info. It's a great way for you to stay in touch with the stock market and your portfolio without having to spend eight hours a day staring at your brokerage screen. So again, link is below. It is free to grab and you're going to love the content in