This just *SHOCKED* the Stock Market

Holy smokes, stocks are ripping higher today. This is because the jobs report, while I expected was going to come in weak, it was way worse than I even predicted. And this is a good thing for the markets because it keeps the Fed keeps the dog in its cage. Ladies and gentlemen, in this video, we will break down all of your big news today. What this means for the markets and what is coming ahead. And we got a lot to get into. It's a Friday. I don't want to waste your time here. Just do me a quick favor. Hit the like button for the YouTube algorithm to help push this video out to more people that need to hear it. All right, so the jobs report today was actually forecasted to come in at like 80,000 positive jobs. We came in at 23,000 jobs. It was an absolute shitow from a markets uh pricing perspective. Now, what's interesting here is you also revised lower the last two months 103,000 jobs for the May and June reports, which is not ideal, but good for us as investors, and we'll talk about that relationship here in just a moment. The unemployment rate actually dropped down to 4.1% from 4.2%. This is because hundreds of thousands of people left the labor market in the past month. I don't know if that's good. I don't know if that's bad. Deportations or retiring. Maybe it's all the IPOs and the wealth that is being created. Who exactly knows what's going on with that? But that's why you had negative 23,000 jobs and the unemployment rate actually fell. And this really makes a strong case that the Fed shouldn't be doing anything right now. Imagine if the Fed had actually hiked rates last Fed meeting. You know how stupid they would look today? They would look like jackasses. Hiking rates and then losing 23,000 jobs. That would be impressive incompetence. Now, this is actually something I've been talking about on the channel for a while now. I've said, "Look, you want to prepare for the rotation and the broadening trade, blah blah blah blah blah." You guys are probably sick of hearing it at this point, but one of one of the points that I've made here is that, you know, while the Fed's like, "Oh my gosh, labor market's so strong and we have to worry about inflation and everyone's like, oh god, okay, labor markets very good." I've been like, look, it's not good. I don't know what everyone's smoking right now, but ever since March, the jobs report has been falling every month. And this last month, July, is no exception. I mean, you went from 214,000 jobs in March, down to 148,000 jobs in April, down to 63,000 jobs in May, down to 20,000 jobs in June, and now you're negative 23,000 jobs in July. There is absolutely no basis for we have a strong labor market or like it's so out of balance, we need rate hikes. That argument is officially dead. my friends, and we'll see what happens over the coming months, but assuming inflation does not go up, assuming it kind of trends sideways or falls, you're not going to get even a single rate hike. And this is a big piece of the puzzle that Wall Street has been overlooking. Everyone's been talking about inflation, but nobody's talking about the weakening labor market. So you can now see today for the first time in a very long time, we are no longer expecting a rate hike. September 16th, the probabilities now sit at 58.3% chance of a pause and 41.7% chance of a hike. By December 9th, you are still pricing in a rate hike. So look, Wall Street's not throwing in the towel. They're still saying, "Yep, the Fed's going to hike rates this year." But with where I see it currently, again, assuming inflation does not skyrocket here, you want to be playing the the side of the coin that says the Fed's not going to be hiking rates this year. I don't think there's any justification to hike rates right now. And again, that's why I've been pounding the table on this rotation trade, the broadening trade. I think I think this has legs as we continue to go forward and see more data that suggests the Fed should not be raising rates. So, that is your big news today. The Russell 2000's up about 1%, NASDAQ 100 up 1.1%, NASDAQ itself up 1.3%, S&P up 0.6%, and the Dow is up 0.2%. If we take a look at 10-year Treasury yields, they are down about two basis points today. I They would be down a lot more if we actually had good Iran news. See, earlier this week, it was reported there was about a 50/50 chance of getting a deal to open the straight of Hermoose by Friday. Obviously, Wall Street's going to say that's great. They're going to price in a deal getting done by Friday. Well, it's Friday and there's no deal. So, oil is up 1% today. That is counteroffsetting uh a larger decline that we would have seen in 10ear Treasury yields today from the bad jobs report. So oil's up 1%. Jobs report came in really low. You're getting a decline in 10ear Treasury yields, but not by much. And if we take a look at the heat map today, it's actually very interesting what you're seeing out there. There's a lot of green, but some areas are in the red, like some of your large oil companies, some of your consumer defensives, some of your financials are also in the red today. Cyclical's doing quite well. Uh, you could see that category here. Um, Apple's down a little bit, Google's down a little bit, Meta's up a little bit, Microsoft's up a little bit, Nvidia's up about 2%, Tesla's up over three, Amazon's up two. So, it's kind of a mixed bag as far as hyperscalers. Even a mixed bag as far as AI, like memory selling off today. AMD is down one and a half percent. But Marll, Qualcomm, you know, some of your others doing quite well. software is really a bright spot today. I think this is because we've had this weird algorithmic selling in the markets recently. And somebody asked me in the trading community about HubSpot and Apploven or one of those companies and what I thought data dog what I thought about their earnings. They were great. There's no reason the stock should have sold off. there's just this weird selling algorithm and I think it has to do with the situational awareness fund blowing up and Wall Street delevering. So on really any news right now, company specific news, good or bad earnings, like they're basically all selling off right now. And I think that opens up an opportunity and it it it does make for these recoveries quite aggressive. like software shouldn't have sold off so much for Applovin and Figma and all the software companies we've seen report earnings in the last couple of days. Now you're getting a little bit of a a rebound to that. And again, to a certain extent, if the Fed is going to be hiking rates, which has been the narrative on Wall Street for a while now, you would want to own hardware. You would want to own the AI trade because you think the Fed hiking rates is going to slow down the hardware trade? No. Right? It's going to slow down everything else before it slows down hardware. So, if we don't get rate hikes, that's not good for hardware. It doesn't really do anything for hardware. Rate hikes are not. If we don't get rate hikes, software cyclicals financials you know, the rest of the markets actually have a bigger tailwind. Now, again, for the 14th,000th time on this channel, I do want to remind you it is a midterm election year. There's going to be volatility. There's going to be headlines that the markets do not like over the next couple of months and you are now in the period of volatility before the midterm election where you do tend to fall in the markets. Now again, you want to be preparing for the 10-month rally starting in October throughout really most of 2027. That's what you want to be preparing for at this point. Kevin Hasset came out today on Fox Business and said, "If you take out government workers, the World Cup and jobs rose 100,000." Kevin Hasset says, "I'm looking almost only at unemployment and it fell." Kevin Hasset says the break even hiring rate is now around 40,000 jobs per month. Hasset says that Trump and W talk about the economy all the time. Again, I think this is a big misconception that Wall Street has right now, among many others, obviously, is that Kevin Walsh is a hawk. That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard in my entire life. Okay, Trump did not appoint a hawk at the Fed. The the issue is Kevin Walsh just got appointed to the Fed. He has no credibility. People are like, "Who's this freaking guy, right, trying to come in and change things?" That's why he didn't vote on the, you know, summary of economic projections. He did not put his dots in there. Uh he wants to look like he's going to be headstrong on inflation. But really, I think uh if you had Kevin Walsh in a in a room by himself, he would say, "Yeah, the data is up. The inflation problem is not as bad as we think. Let's fix the data. Get the markets behind our new ways of calculating inflation. more like a trueflation way of calculating inflation and then we'll reassess policy. I don't think Kevin Walsh for a second is a hawk. And what does that mean for you if you're an investor? Well, you can see through Wall Street's foggy vision and uh prepare for a Fed that's not going to be as hawkish as Wall Street thinks. And it's a slow and steady process, but every time we get these jobs reports and every time inflation's moving in the right direction, you see Wall Street slowly start to say, "Yeah, the Fed's not a hawk." Kevin Hasset says, "I'm sure Trump doesn't give war interest rate advice." Fed Barkin says, "Today, the jobs data is more low, higher, low fire." Uh, she says the jobs data doesn't feel very good where it is. That's gray. Fed Barkin's not exactly one of your doves. Um Barkin says in zero to modest positive job gain environment. Kevin Hasset says on jobs we are seeing a little bit of participation weakness and US rate futures as we already talked about are now pricing in just 28 basis points of hikes by December versus 32 basis points before the jobs data. Bank of America warns that bullish sentiment has gone too far. Our Bank of America says investor optimism has reached its most extreme level since 2021, signaling it may be time to cut risk. Its bull bear indicator jumped to 9.7 driven by strong stock markets, credit inflows, and tighter spreads. Bank of America recommends rotating towards defensive assets, bonds, and the US dollar. The warning comes as global equities hit record highs with Friday's US jobs report, the next major test for markets. Uh again this is a very dispersed market you know there's this is not like the whole market is strong so while they say rotate into defensive assets what are defensive assets right now defensive assets are not the typical Walmarts as you would think in a normal year they are software they are cyclicals they are financials they are small caps right that's those are the defensive assets right now that's where the bears are that's where you know if AI hardware rolls over or the broader markets roll over those are the areas that are going to outperform as we just seen with hardware falling 40 to 50% as we predicted on this channel recently I mean look at look at a SanDisk right it's just utterly destroyed uh ELF has done the exact opposite you know ELF is up like a 100 plus% since SanDisk has declined 50 right is up 103%. ELF is what you would call defensive right now, which is not typically what you would think of as a defensive stock. So, while I do agree with Bank of America, you want to be defensive right now, especially it's a midterm election year and we're heading into that volatility. The idea of defensive has changed in 2026. It is not the typical gold and silver and a Walmart and and these recessionp proof stocks. That's not defensive right now. Defensive is basically tra taking the other side of the AI hardware trade and in simpler terms versus what Bank of America said. Looking ahead towards next week again, we're going to have a lot of earnings. your bigger earnings are out of the way until you get Nvidia, but you're going to have a lot of Neoclouds, a lot of AI stocks, you're going to have a lot of software, just really a ton of different sectors. Um, Monday you have as Space Mobile, you have Plug Power, HIM and Hers. Um, Tuesday you have uh Super Micro and Cororeweave and Lummentum and After Hours as well as Cabba. Uh Wednesday you have Nebus, uh Aros Dorado. Um and after hours you have Cisco, Inflection, Coherent, uh Sarabos, uh Thursday you have Applied Materials, Figure, um again some Chinese companies like JD.com, Impremarket, and there are many others as well that are, you know, smaller. Now, Donald Trump said this morning on AI, quote, "It could be bigger than oil." Trump on AI says, "Whoever wins AI just wins. It's that big." Now, Tyrron's mayor says passing through the straight of Hermoose depends on lifting sanctions and paying compensation. Thrron's mayor says nations that have threatened Iran will not have the right to use this straight until compensation is paid. So, again, just doesn't sound like great headlines. Now from a technical perspective on this market, the NASDAQ is still is in this bull flag pattern. It has retaken that if you can call it that, you are finding some resistance around the downtrending trend line right now. I think again we are in a pretty dangerous market just seasonality premidterms. There's there's a lot going on right now. There's this weird sell algorithm right now that's selling stocks off on earnings that even report great earnings. I think that's something to be vigilant of, to be a little careful of. Again, if you look at the index like the S&P, you are at all-time highs. You have ripped higher. But again, like being defensive right now is not defensive in the traditional sense of buying recession stocks. You know, it's you kind of want to stay, you know, what's led the S&P higher. Well, kind of the broadening trade, but you know, it's some of the hyperscalers. It's some of the, you know, um, positive reactions you've seen around those. Nvidia, you know, Nvidia is up quite a bit recently. You want to stay away from the stocks that have done really, really well recently that everyone loves. So, ladies and gentlemen, let me know your thoughts on all of this down below in the comments section. If you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. Have a fantastic rest of your day and I will see you in the next