I much rather buy it on a pullback, right? But if it pulls back into earnings, guys, I'm going to consider it, right? Especially after earnings. If earnings are strong, the company um you know crushes guidance and the stock somehow is is in a pullback after reporting earnings like that. We'll see. These are a lot of hypotheticals, guys, but I'd get in at that point. I would get in at that point.
Contexte
"I much rather buy it on a pullback, right? But if it pulls back into earnings, guys, I'm going to consider it, right? Especially after earnings. If earnings are strong... I'd get in at that point."
I might have to snag up some Apple in position of that, you know, of that Amazon position I had potentially. We'll see. I might do that if it gets down to the 280, 290, 275 range.
Contexte
"I might have to snag up some Apple... I might do that if it gets down to the 280, 290, 275 range."
Transcription Complète
So, you guys want to hear some good news to start the week? JP Morgan just lifted their S&P target to 8,000 points after a lot of these companies in the S&P completely crushed earnings. So, guys, we have to break down what JP Morgan saying, stocks I'm watching, the charts, and overall where my head's at now as we're heading into a brand new week in the stock market. So guys, hit the like button. Make sure to subscribe. Join my Patreon if you want to keep up with my portfolio updates, trades, investments, and if you want to be a part of my private Discord, all that's linked down below, pinned in the comments, or go to stocksurfest.com/patreon. And now, cheers. Happy Monday. Take a sip of your coffee, guys. I appreciate you all for tuning in and let's dive into it. So, every index right now, well, is all over the place to start off the week. The S&P's up a little bit, barely, pretty much at break even as the Q's are down.1%. Same with the Dow and the Russell's down half a percent. So, the Dow, the Q's, the S&P, they're a little down, little green, pretty much at break even as the Russell is down the most, but still not down much. And considering we just hit all-time highs, this is not a big deal on any of these indices that are slightly down because pretty much all of them again just hit all-time highs during the past week. And with earning season mostly done, we do have a lot of companies reporting this week. But with mostly all these earnings out, we've digested the earnings and the market is realizing, oh crap, earnings were strong. We have to push higher. And that is why we've been hitting all-time highs on all these indices except for the Q's which I think that's coming pretty soon here. I think the Q's will be hitting all-time highs pretty soon here as we're about we're about to break out. We're trying to on the 4 hour. Not quite yet there. Uh but I think it's coming. I think it's coming. What do you guys think? Let me know in the uh in the comments. So before we dive into stocks charts, what I'm looking to do, let me show you what is going on with JP Morgan as again they lifted their target to 8,000 points on the S&P after well we had a lot of these companies, not all the companies but a lot of these companies they reported strong numbers. So JP Morgan raised their 2026 target to 8,000 points from 7,000 points. a move driven by a strong and broad-based second quarter earning season and improving evidence of monetization in AI spending. Obviously, that's been the big topic. Is all this capex spend going to yield a a solid return? What's that going to look like? Now, we're getting more and more evidence that it will yield a return for a lot of these companies, right? And with 87% of S&P earnings um having reported uh 87% of the companies having reported strategists led by Dubraco Lacos Buhas Bujas I butcher that guy's name. Um they said the earnings picture remains strong and broad-based across multiple sectors. That's key, right? And the bank raised its 2026 EPS estimate to $365, implying 35% year-over-year growth and above the consensus estimate of $358 while lifting its 27 estimate to $420 a share or 15% growth. Um, so they lifted the 2027 estimate to 420 and the bank raised the 2026 EPS estimate implying 35% growth year overyear. And strategists noted that private company stake valuations are boosting EPS by roughly $18 based on first half 2026 marks. Excluding that contribution, normalized 2026 EPS would be $347, up 28% year-over-year. Still uh very very you know impressive 28% that's without that that's excluding the contribution uh by private company stake valuations. And despite one of the strongest fundamental backdrops since the GFC, JP Morgan kept its forward multiple unchanged at roughly 20 times, citing higher for longer rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and heavy equity and debt supply still to be absorbed. Right. And the strategist pointed to higher um capital spending as the season's key theme with a sharper focus on monetization and return on invested capital. They said signs of that showed up most clearly at Google, Amazon, and Microsoft where stronger cloud growth, backlog expansion, and improved operating cash flow visibility cleared a high investor expectation bar. Um so there you have it. Happy Monday. JP Morgan's increasing their target to 8,000, which funny enough, right? Did we not talk about 8,000 on the S&P last week or the week before? Is JP Morgan watching my videos, guys? Just kidding. Obviously, they're not watching these videos, but or maybe they are. I doubt it. But we were talking about that. And it only makes sense as you guys can see with this breakout, this technical breakout on SPY on the S&P index itself. It's pointing to to another leg up. And this is exactly how a bull market works. What did I say in those videos? We have periods of time where we're flat, then we see a huge run followed by periods of time where we're flat again for a couple weeks, couple months. And now that the market got Q2 earnings, digested the earnings, realized, oh, these companies are doing well across different sectors, now we're getting the confirmation we need fundamentally to push the charts higher, the market higher. Right now we're getting the confirmation technically as well after the fundamentals came in line for Q2 and some companies surpassed the expectations uh for Q2. So, we're seeing the breakout on the S&P. I think 8,000 is in the cards. I was saying 7,000 earlier this year. Crazy how now we're on to 8,000. Uh, SPY is well on its, you know, well on its way to breaking breaking out. Well, it already is breaking out, but well on its way towards 800 with this breakout. And again, the cues are right there. I think we're going to hit all-time highs pretty soon here based on uh the way things are shaping up. The Dow just hit all-time highs. Same with the Russell. The market is in a very healthy spot right now, guys. And a lot of stocks, a lot of stocks are moving. So, let me show you all a couple of names here I'm keeping my eyes on to start the week. Crowd Strike is number one. Ticker CRWD, which ever since they did their 4 for one stock split. Man, this stock has been uh been going nuts, right? And especially before that, the stock hit $85 back in what, January, February, March. Now it's at $225. We're completely breaking out to all-time highs again today, guys. We're up 5% trading at 225, 226. Crowd Strike has earnings coming up here in about 2 weeks on the 26th of August. And I think, well, if this stock is priced to perfection into earnings, I'm not going to I'm not going to buy it, right? I much rather buy it on a pullback. But if it pulls back into earnings, guys, I'm going to consider it, right? Especially after earnings. If earnings are strong, the company um you know crushes guidance and the stock somehow is is in a pullback after reporting earnings like that. We'll see. These are a lot of hypotheticals, guys, but I'd get in at that point. I would get in at that point. And I think Crowd Strike overall, cyber security in general is a is a much needed um you know, much needed space right now considering all this AI buildout, the infrastructure. We need cyber security for all for all this data that we're collecting that we're trying to keep safe. Cyber security is critical. And I was saying that months ago. um you know, regarding Crowd Strike, other names in the space. So, I like the way it's shaping up. I'm not surprised we're breaking out, but selfishly, I kind of want it to pull back a bit uh before earnings or after earnings so I can get personally a better entry point here. So, that's Crowd Strike. Palunteer is another one that continues to just absolutely rip. Palunteer is breaking out to multimonth highs. We're pretty much where we were to start the year now. Uh back in January, the stock was in the 180s, 190s. Now we're back to 180, 179 as of this video, up another 4% on the day. So, I'm watching to see how this momentum shakes out. And Palanteer ultimately I think we will see a pullback in the short term. Uh but we're not there yet. I'm also watching Alphabet. You guys probably saw my video yesterday or was it on Friday, Saturday? Either way, we talked about how one of my in one of my accounts, my Amazon shares got called. Um, you know, I sold covered calls on Amazon. I got those shares taken away. Now, I have a good amount of cash just sitting, right? And I'm fine with that, but not forever, right? We have to put that cash to use. Uh, but I'm not going to rush and buy a bunch of stock on day one where I have that cash from getting my shares uh, you know, my shares called. So, what I'm going to do is be patient. And this is what I say to all you guys whenever you have a big lump sum of cash. Don't freak out and be like, "Oh, I have to go buy a stock today with all that money." You know, sometimes the best thing you can do when you have cash is nothing, right? and just watch the market and let the opportunities present themselves. And I'm watching Alphabet right now for that exact reason. And look, I already own Alphabet. My position is, you know, pretty built out. I have a good amount of shares, but I'm looking to add even more. Um, I haven't bought Alphabet. Well, I guess I bought some last week for the first time in a while, but before that, I haven't bought Google in a while, and I'm looking to really beef up my position here even more um to make it my biggest stock holding, which it used to be. Then I got taken over by Amazon and Nvidia. Now, I'm kind of watching Alphabet and I'm like, the stock's at 350. It's trading at a pretty attractive valuation even being even with how big of a company it is. I think if we can get this thing down to 300, 320, 330 even, man, this is a great opportunity uh for the longer term. This is not a swing trade, not a a day trade, right? I'm looking to really beef up my stake for the longer term. And anywhere near um you know, the mid low 300s, I think is a good opportunity to do exactly that. Beef up the stake and get get the shares up, man. Even though even though it's going to bring up my average cost a substantial amount, my average cost now is in the mid hundreds, I'm still willing to to add more Alphabet and beef up the position even though it's going to bring up my average cost because I think it's going to be a $400, $500 stock one day. And it's one of those core holdings, man. For me at least, whenever it's down 20% from highs, whenever it's taking a beating, 10 20%, I'm I'm usually scaling in, adding more. Um, so for this week, guys, really, I'm focused on potentially adding more Alphabet. I'm watching it as it is coming down from that news we got regarding their chief um scientist, right, who who stepped down. I think he's starting his own AI company. That caused the stock to come down as it it's it's freaking out a little bit. Oh, we're losing talent. What's going on here? Uh but I think that's ultimately opening up an opportunity for me uh to get in. So, Alphabet, I'm watching very closely. Um I'm keeping my eyes on Toast as I have calls I sold that expire on the 21st, I believe, of August, and those are $37 calls. We're getting pretty close to $37 now on Toast, guys. Um 37 was the high from back in uh back in December, January. Now we're approaching it again. After months of being in a drought, Toast has not been looking good. Now it's finally starting to look good. And I'm probably just going to let my shares get called away at 37. If we end up getting there, um and my share as well do get called away by expiration. I'm cool with that. Uh Tesla's another one that's rallying, but I'm not necessarily convinced that this is the bottom for Tesla that it's completely breaking out yet. I don't know considering it's um it's still struggling to break out of the low mid300s. That was support back in the early mid days of April. Then we rallied off of it. Now we obviously broke through 340 making it resistance 330 340. So, I feel like buying Tesla here might be a little um I don't want to say premature, but you could potentially get trapped here before it goes lower. So, I've held off on buying more Tesla. I'm holding on to my position. Uh that's kind of what I'm doing there, guys. And if we come down here a little more, other names today moving. Some are moving down. Apple's getting crushed. Nvidia's down. We can see Apple is down uh 306. We're down 2% on the day. Nvidia is down at 219, down about 2% on the day. And Apple is one that I was considering as well with that Amazon cash that got freed up. I might add, again, like I said, a bunch of Google, a bunch more Google or Apple. Honestly, if I'm patient enough and Apple gets down to the 280 range, 275, I might have to snag up some Apple in position of that, you know, of that Amazon position I had potentially. We'll see. I might do that if it gets down to the 280, 290, 275 range. And of course, I'll keep you guys updated. And everybody in my Patreon, you guys get all my realtime buys, sells, all my alerts, right? you get my uh portfolio updates and you get access to my private Discord. All of that's on Patreon link down below, pinned in the comments or go to stockserfest.com/patreon. And with that being said, guys, hit the like button, make sure to subscribe. I'll see you in the next
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