Contexte
"The new AI trade is as followed. Robotics, automation, AI software, cyber security. Look at these stocks today. So Tesla was up a little bit today."
Zebra Technologies within automation up around a half of 1% today.
Contexte
"The new AI trade is as followed. Robotics, automation, AI software, cyber security. Look at these stocks today. Zebra Technologies within automation up around a half of 1% today."
Contexte
"The new AI trade is as followed. Robotics, automation, AI software, cyber security. Look at these stocks today. Rockwell Automation actually down about 1% today."
Contexte
"The new AI trade is as followed. Robotics, automation, AI software, cyber security. Look at these stocks today. Uh, Symbiotic up about 1% today."
Don't be the guy that was buying Lucid on the [snorts] whole way down because you thought EVs were gonna come back. The EV hype, it didn't happen.
Contexte
"Don't be the guy that was buying Lucid on the [snorts] whole way down because you thought EVs were gonna come back."
Transcription Complète
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the channel. Today was a bit of a weird day in the stock market and I want to talk about that in today's video. But we do have some major catalyst coming in the next 24 to 48 hours with your CPI report. We do have some economic data tomorrow morning that we will talk about. But this conflict with Iran has taken another strange turn with Donald Trump now demanding compensation from Iran, which is kind of strange. We are also in this pre-midterm election volatility period and I have some very strong views on what could be happening to the markets over the next couple of weeks and of course over the next 12 to 24 months. I want to share my outlook with you in this video as well. These are only my opinions. I'm not a financial adviser. I'm not a fortune teller. So, come to your own conclusions. At the end of the day, I think it's very valuable that you take in different opinions, but you ultimately come to your own conclusions. Year to date, we are up 84% in the trading community portfolio. If you guys want to join that, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. But look, my only goal on this channel is to show you, tell you about opportunities before Wall Street figures it out. That's how you make life-changing amounts of money. That's all you have to do is beat Wall Street. You have to be faster than the hedge funds. Okay, so let's begin with this uh turn of events. Donald Trump says, quote, I see that representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran are asking for compensation for the damage done to them during the last 5-month military conflict. Started because they will not have a nuclear weapon, even though it was never mentioned in any of our negotiations or meetings. But it is an interesting idea because now I am likewise demanding compensation from Iran for all of the people they have killed and the and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts for which they are famous as led initially by General Solommani including the families of those killed on the USS Cole and thousands of others in combat. Additionally, compensation should be paid to the families of the hundreds of thousands of innocent protesters that Iran has killed over the last 50 years. Not to mention the 52,000 that have been killed in the last 5 months. I have instructed my representatives to put this firmly into any and all future negotiations, which I yeah, I I I get it. Iran should definitely be held accountable. Like, I'm not I'm not um disagreeing with that, but Iran literally cannot pay any kind of reparations for those kind of things. like economically speaking it's it's not possible. So, this adds another weird layer to this conflict because as we seen it earlier today, just a handful of hours or so ago, we were kind of in a position where Iran and Oman were negotiating where the traffic is going to flow in the straight of Hermoose really. Um, how that is going to be governed, if you will. And we heard in the last handful of hours that Donald Trump was basically ready to leave the conflict as long as the straight of moose opens. Putting two and two together, Iran and Oman agreeing on trans transporting lanes in the straight of formoose and Trump saying he's ready to walk away from the conflict if the straight of moose opens. It seemed like things were kind of heading in that direction. But now this is kind of a a weird addition to all of this. Ultimately, I would imagine this is a negotiating tactic by Trump to have Iran drop the compensation claims because I mean that's that's probably the best checkmate you could you could do, right, in a negotiating sense. So I think it's negotiation tactics more than anything else. It has to be. Iran's not in a position to compensate anything. Um, but still at the end of the day, my belief holds true that I don't think we're going to see escalation in this conflict between now and the midterms at least because it's about damage mitigation at this point. Trump, I remember like 6 months ago, he he basically said he could do whatever he wants because Republicans are going to win the midterms. Well, that has flip-flopped. It looks like no matter what Republicans do, they're going to lose the midterms. So, I think it's about damage mitigation at this point. It's about bringing down oil prices, bringing down 10-year Treasury yields, keeping the stock market elevated right into the midterm. So, I think it's about damage mitigation at this point. Now there was also news today that Nvidia is uh putting together an infrastructure financing package um in partnership with you know Apollo, Blackstone, Black Rockck, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, KKR a lot of private credit um to basically fund the next infrastructure buildouts for AI. What's interesting about this is Nvidia actually sold off like 3 to 4% on this news. Wall Street is not taking this as good news. And I I think it furthermore highlights the point that I have made on this channel that the AI hardware FOMO is over with. It's over with. It's not coming back. The faster we accept this, the better off our portfolios are going to be. Don't be the guy that was buying Lucid on the [snorts] whole way down because you thought EVs were gonna come back. The EV hype, it didn't happen. Okay? Don't be the guy that's buying hardware hoping for a change in sentiment. The ship has sailed, my friends. And I do think that in conjunction with what's going on with the oil markets, 10-year Treasury yields, the Iran war, the Fed is is interesting because AI hardware and hyperscalers, which is basically the AI trade right now, um they are starting to react very negatively. The tide has turned. Well, those are the areas that control the index. On the other hand, the Iran war and oil and the Fed and all these other things kind of determine the broadening trade. So, look, I I can't tell you definitively what happens to AI hardware or hyperscalers over the next two months heading into the midterms. I can tell you the NASDAQ fell 11 12% recently. I don't think you have to crash from here by any means, but I don't know if they're going to skyrocket either. That's kind of a far-fetch to me. On the other hand, I'm pretty confident we're not going to have escalation in the war with Iran over the next two months. But hey, crazier things have happened. So, we do want to be careful if we are too overlevered to one side of this market. But again, I don't exactly think it's great news that Nvidia is trying to put together a circular financing package worth $500 billion. So, take that for how you will. And if this deal does struggle to get the private credit backing because Nvidia sells off on this or AI hardware is now out of favor, that's going to put up a lot more doubts about the capex spending that is sustainable from here. Because the fact of the matter is, you know, if you're investing in hyperscalers or even some of the hardware stocks like we see in Nvidia today 15 billion stock offering, there's going to be a lot of dilution next year. A ton of dilution. maybe a hundred billion worth of dilution at Google or more next year. Even though that's not much compared to $4 trillion market cap, that's what 2 and a.5% dilution. Wall Street doesn't like dilution. Investors do not like dilution. Nonetheless, we do have some catalyst here over the next 24 to 48 hours. Tomorrow morning, we have the ADP employment change weekly. This is actually something that I pay close attention to because it's it's been weakening for a for a while now, right? It's been weakening ever since May 2nd when you hit about 41,000 job ads. It's been falling ever since. The last jobs report was really bad as well. So, if the ADP employment change comes in tomorrow and it's not that great, well, again, it's going to bring up, you know, fears that the labor market's not as strong as previously thought. And that could put the Fed on on pause for longer. That could be a positive for the rotation, for the broadening of the markets. Not really a positive for hyperscalers or AI hardware, but more so a catalyst for the broader markets. Tomorrow morning, you also have the NFIB business optimism index. Expecting that to come down a little bit from last month. You're you're kind of down quite a bit from where you were in 2025 and early 2026. And uh again, expecting that to fall a little bit further, but it's not something that is super important. You also have a three-year bond auction as well tomorrow. Now, on Wednesday, that is your big data for this week. That is core CPI. You're expecting 0.2%. Individuals like Tom Lee have come out and said, "Look, you're probably going to have a low CPI report this week." I'm under that view as well. Oil did go up from like $72 a barrel at the low to start in July up to $92 a barrel. I think it settled out around $85 a barrel for July. But the real thing is, are we getting or still seeing progress in housing inflation? And housing inflation via owner's equivalent rents, the survey metric to evaluate housing inflation. It's flawed. It it it takes a long time for housing inflation to show that it's actually coming down, but the the process has begun. And I think if we get a CPI beat, it's probably because of housing, which I do think we are going to have a CPI beat. Uh, but last month you were at 0% for core month overmonth. If we come in at like 0.1%, that is going to be fantastic news. Even at 0.2%, like that's not bad. That's not terrible. That's pretty close to 2% inflation, depending on where the decimal point actually falls. If we come in higher than 0.2%, 2%. That would be a problem. Now again, Thursday you have PPI month overmonth. Fed Barkin will give a speech. And then on Friday you have retail sales month overmonth and the Michigan consumer sentiment survey. You do also have some earnings tomorrow in after hours. Super Micro, Cororeweave, Lummentum, and Cava. And then later on uh Wednesday morning, you have Nebus. That's going to be a big one for the AI trade. Wednesday and after hours Cisco Inflection Coherent and Sarabos. And then Thursday, you're going to have applied materials as well. So more of your AI companies, specifically Nebius and Coreweave, they're going to move the needle for your broader AI trade. But again, look, I think right now we're kind of in a gray period, right? Where AI hardware, that trade is over with. It's the FOMO is not coming back. The leverage is not going back into that area. Once you get burned, once you burn your hand on a stove or sever your pinky fingers tendons on a whiskey glass because you slipped and fell, you're a lot more careful next time. Look at this. Isn't that Isn't that ridiculous? It's stupid. Um, turns out you don't need your pinky for a whole lot, though. So, that's that's the good news. But um yeah, you're a lot more careful next time. The leverage is not coming back in AI hardware. The FOMO is not coming back. The law of large numbers will keep these stocks tamed. What do I mean? Nvidia last quarter grew 80% year-over-year. What do you think Nvidia needs to put up to continue to go up? Well, something around that. The law of large numbers is probably going to prevent that from happening. it's probably going to come in at like 40% growth for uh this this same period next year, right? Which is really good. It's just not exciting, right? It's it's growth slowing down and Wall Street never likes that. So, you know, there's a ton of reasons specifically why AI hardware is dead, but um or at least not coming back. Like the days of 50 AI hardware stocks leading the markets higher is over with. But we're in this gray period because the war with Iran, the new Fed, the freaking midterm election seasonals where we haven't quite transitioned into the new AI trade. The new AI trade is as followed. Robotics, automation, AI software, cyber security. Look at these stocks today. So Tesla was up a little bit today. Zebra Technologies within automation up around a half of 1% today. Rockwell Automation actually down about 1% today. Uh, Symbiotic up about 1% today. Look at the AI software group. Look at Zeta up 2 and a.5% today. Look at UiPath up 2.3% today. Look at Palanteer up three and a half% today. Look at even Data Dog up 10% today. Look at um what's what's another one? Cyber security. Okay, that's the fourth category. Up 9% today. Rubric up 9% today. They haven't reported earnings yet. We'll see what happens. But cyber, that's a big theme as well going ahead from here. But again, we're we're in this gray period where it's not obvious to Wall Street or big money that that is where the puck is going. They're very slow, if you haven't noticed, to catch on to new trends. They're not fast at all. If that were the case, they would have bought memory stocks in 2024, 2025, right? Long before they rallied. Wall Street is very slow to identifying changes and new trends. And that is why we are up 84% year-to date in the trading community. Actually up like 86 or 87% now uh following the end of the day today. But again, that's the point. They're slow. You got to beat Wall Street to the puck and then to the goal. And that's what we're doing. And that is what this video is helped or at least made to help you do to beat the markets to the puck. I like small caps. I like cyclicals. I like industrials. I like financials. You know, are they going to double, triple, 5, 10x anytime soon? No, absolutely not. Are they a little safer? Sure. But if you're trying to make a lot of money, robotics, automation, AI, software, and cyber security, it's as simple as that. That is the blueprint towards massive portfolio gains in the next 12 to 24 months in my personal opinion. But we do have a lot of weird going on going on right now. We are in this weird seasonal period of volatility during the midterms. I don't think we have to get that volatility though. Like I don't think it's actually going to happen since the NASDAQ already fell 11 12%. Maybe we already priced that in. Maybe we already got the premidterm correction. Maybe we just trade sideways for a while. That's fine, too. But I really think it's going to depend on what happens with CPI, the next Iran war headline, things that are unpredictable by nature, and also Nvidia earnings, which are coming in about two weeks. So ladies and gentlemen, let me know your thoughts on this down below in the comment section. Hit the like button as well as subscribe to the channel if you guys have not done so already. Have a fantastic rest of your day and I will see you in the next
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