Matt Tuttle on CPI's Lasting Impact, NVDA Financing Deal & Gold Bull Case

to the upside is a big mover for the broader market. Really appreciate it. That's Jenny Horne co-host of Next Gen investing. Do you want to welcome in our next guest though. Joining us Matthew Tuttle CEO and CIO at Tuttle Capital Management. Matthew, great to have you on. Now, we've got a nice day in the markets. We've got green, although the Dow has just slipped slightly below the unchanged line. We did see rates come down a little bit. And I highlight that because you're bullish. But you say that rates are the biggest thing that you are watching right now. What would have to happen in rates for you to change your outlook or become more cautious. Yeah. So 5% on the ten year is our line in the sand for stocks. It made a run there last week. Yields have come down a little bit. But you know you got CPI coming out tomorrow. It seems like that's going to be a big deal. You know market's not doing a whole heck of a lot today. Which leads me to think that you know anything non consensus is going to be majorly market moving tomorrow. But 5% is is where we would change from bullish to bearish in terms of the CPI coming out. Matthew what's your expectation here for that number. So you know oil has come down. So you know I do think that CPI ought to be at consensus. You know I don't see any reason why we'd get a hot number here hotter than again people expect. But it's something we're going to be laser focused on. And again, it seems like yeah the market's up but not not much going on today. So it seems like people are sitting on their hands waiting for this number. So you know anything non consensus again is likely to move the markets bonds and stocks quite a bit. Yeah. And Kevin Henkes called the market listless to me yesterday. And I think that was kind of perfect. We were just sort of did a whole lot of nothing as as the day went on, as you mentioned, we're looking for that catalyst. But one of the other things that you're flagging is sort of related to what I was just talking to Jenny Horne about with this new Nvidia coalition to fund this AI build out. Is your concern around some of the circular financing that we're seeing here in the markets? How concerned are you about the financing and if it could ultimately exaggerate an underlying demand? And then how are you looking at Nvidia's announcement that it's gathered, this consortium of Wall Street's elite to back this AI build out? Yeah, we've been writing about this a lot in our daily newsletter. We've been writing about space X. We're going to hit Nvidia tomorrow. I'm not concerned yet because the demand is real. As long as the demand is real, we're fine. You know, and we wrote a couple weeks back that this isn't like Lucent in 1999, at least not yet. So we're not worried about it at the moment. But it is something you've still got to be laser focused on because it is the type of thing that, if this starts to unravel, could really make this unravel a lot faster. All right. So then let's talk about names that you do like right now. You've brought us Franco-nevada, which I haven't talked about in a very long time here in gold. Walk me through what you like about F and V. Yeah. So a lot of things going on in gold. First off, the time to buy gold is when nobody else wants it. And you know, gold had that parabolic run a couple months back. Now nobody cares. Now I care. You've got kind of a a lack of confidence in the fed that the bond vigilantes were pointing out after after the fed meeting. You've got some issues now with the yen carry trade. And we look at gold as a hard money hedge. Franco-nevada is a royalty company. We own it in our PCP ETF. It's a permanent position. But you know, I like I like it as a gold royalty company. And I like gold here. So if you like it as a hard money hedge, then does that mean, Matthew, that you are effectively betting that inflation is going to stay higher for longer than perhaps the markets are expecting? So I am worried that the fed is going to end up behind the curve here a little bit. You know, don't think this war is anywhere near over. So we could see oil prices go back up. And you know you've got a fed chair who's in a rough spot because he's Trump's guy. Trump brought him into lower rates. Those three dissents I think are very interesting. And again, the fact that bond yields spiked after the meeting is telling me that the bond vigilantes don't have faith. So, you know, I, I do worry the Fed's going to be behind the curve. All right. And you also like Alibaba. But you say that you see two ways for Alibaba to win. So walk me through both of those thesis. Yeah. So Alibaba has Quinn which is the the Chinese AI model. But they also have a big stake in Kimmy. So really, you know, if you're betting on anything related to Chinese AI, Alibaba, like I said, gives you two potential ways to win. China is another area to where the best time to buy Chinese names are when nobody else wants them. And, you know, like you said, you haven't talked about Franco-nevada. I don't hear a lot of people talking about China. So that gets me more interested. And what do you view as the biggest risk to this Alibaba thesis? Is it competitors within China? Is it U.S. regulation? I mean what's the biggest potential risk here. I mean those two things, but also that, you know, Kimmy turns out to be deep seek. And, you know, everyone was worried about deep seek. Now nobody talks about deep seek. You know, if China ends up way behind in this, then no one's going to care about Kimmy. No one's going to care about Quinn. And so as you look at Alibaba, that is the name I have talked extensively about here. Typically, China was viewed just with this umbrella of risk over top of it. And because of that have traded at a discount. Have we reached a different part of the conversation now, Matthew, where AI has become such a potential driver in the country that it's changing the way that investors are valuing these Chinese companies? Yeah, I mean, without a doubt. And, you know, Csmt is another one. We just added that to our HBM ETF the other day. You know, that's a stock you want to own. You know we're in a race with China on AI. Who knows who's going to win. But I think if you want to be diversified across the AI trade, you want to have some U.S. names, you want to have some Chinese names. I think Alibaba fits in there. Baidu is another name we own. Not as bullish on it as I am on Alibaba. But again, I think, you know, if you want to be diversified across the AI trade you don't want to ignore China. All right. You also have a picks and shovels play in the Permian that you like in terms of water bridge infrastructure. So take me through this one. Yeah. So they handle all the water processing in the Permian Basin for the oil companies. As we continue to see data center build outs, one of the things we're going to need to deal with is the water. They are perfectly positioned to be a part of that. And again, it goes to, you know, I think you really want to be in these picks and shovels names. You want to be in the names that are going to benefit from the spend, not just the names that are spending and water bridges and under the radar screen name that I bet you guys have probably never talked about. So I wanted to give you something a little bit different. I always like when it feels a little bit like an overlooked stock segment, because I talk about the same ones pretty regularly. But Matthew, last question here. You said the 5% mark is sort of your line in the sand when it comes to the ten year. So let's say hypothetically, we get to that point. Which of these three stocks would you be most comfortable owning? So probably Franco-nevada, you know, I would be more comfortable owning gold in a massive inflationary environment than I would be, you know, anything related to AI. Matthew, alw