Oh Sh*t... BIG MONEY is PANACKING... (Breaking News)

Holy smokes, guys. We have big news out of the Strait of Hormuz and what's happening there. Are we negotiating? Are we not? We need to get into that. But, what's crazier, Jane Street, they've made money trading every month since 2016. They haven't had a losing month in 10 years. July, they lost $15 billion. What they say about risk management and how things are changing gives us an insight to the AI hardware trade because it does look like everyone is leveraged to the same trade. And that's a problem. And it highlights an opportunity for us that we will talk about in today's video. Not to mention, it looks like Democrats are now projected to win the Senate on midterms for the first time well, in a long time. So, what does that mean for de-escalation in the Iran conflict? We're going to get into all of it in today's episode. I'm going to give you a broader view of this market. We're going to look at the heat map, AI investor sentiment survey, CNN Fear & Greed Index, talk about the post-midterm rally that I do believe is coming. Ladies and gentlemen, the only thing that I ask you to do is hit the like button for the YouTube algorithm that will push this video out to more people that need to see it, that will make money from it. And of course, if you guys want to come join the trading community, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. We are up 91 and 1/2% year-to-date. We are not fortune tellers. We are simply finding the opportunity and beating Wall Street to it. That's all you have to do to make a lot of money in the stock market. It's find the opportunity and be early. That's it. It's not rocket science. You don't have to do some kind of crazy equation here. Find the opportunity and beat the markets to it. That link is down below if you guys would like to come join us. But, onto today's video. Iran's foreign minister says that Qatar and Pakistan are exchanging messages with Tehran, but this is not a negotiation. So, this implies that they're sending messages, right? Qatar and Pakistan, for the US that there's some kind of dialogue happening through mediators. Iran's foreign minister says Iran-Oman discussions are distinct and centered on maritime passage via the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's foreign minister says the US must fulfill conditions for shipping to restart through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says there is no decision yet on US talks. Iran has not decided whether to resume negotiations with the United States, Foreign Minister Aragchi said. Qatar and Pakistan continue exchanging messages with Tehran as mediators, but Aragchi stressed that these contacts do not constitute negotiations. The comments suggest diplomacy remains active behind the scenes, but formal US-Iran talks have yet to restart. Donald Trump said yesterday the US is capable of destroying Iran. We don't want to do that. And Trump yesterday says, quote, "Pretty soon I'll be declaring Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States." Iran today rejected Trump's Hormuz threat. Iran says it will not be intimidated after President Trump to declare the Strait of Hormuz US territory. Deputy Foreign Minister Garabadi said decisions over opening or closing the strategic waterway remains solely under Iran's authority. The comments signal continued confrontation over control of the critical global energy route. And look at this. This was news that I actually shared with the trading community when it came out because it's so unprecedented. Jane Street executives to employees in a note said, quote, "July was a bad month. Trading revenue was negative for the first month since 2016." That was 10 years ago. I remember 2016 like like yesterday. That was 10 years ago. They have not had a negative month of trading in 10 years. And they just lost, get this, $15 billion in the month of July as the AI sell-off hit its exposure to situational awareness and other technology positions, per Reuters. The firm has still generated more than 40 billion in trading revenue this year. Following the losses, Jane Street told employees it had significantly reduced risk in affected strategies and we would become more selective. And again, Jane Street says recent losses prompted the firm to be more selective about risk, closing significant portion of risk in areas with July losses. So, they basically just delevered from the AI hardware trade. But, it really highlights that basically everyone was long this trade. And this is a point that I've made on the channel now many times. The AI hardware FOMO is not coming back. It's going to look more normal. If an AI company does well and executes, it's going to do well. The stock's going to do well. But, they are still priced with high expectations, so you have to see blowout numbers, which makes it more difficult for these stocks to do well. But, the days of 50 stocks tripling in two months is over with. It's not coming back. Because again, once you sever your pinky finger tendon and it no longer bends at the the tip, you're a lot carefuler when you walk past whiskey glasses on a slippery floor or carrying them. Point is, you don't tend to make the same mistake twice. Also in the news today, Nvidia scales back a $250 billion commitment for OpenAI data centers. And this comes as like the COO just left OpenAI. There's now multiple high-ranking officials that have left OpenAI in just the last couple of weeks. And now this? It's not a good sign. And also in the news today, per Polymarket and and, you know, prediction markets, Democrats are now in the lead to win the Senate during midterms. It's only 53% probability, but that's that's a flip-flop. And as I've talked about on this channel before, look, we have two, three months, two and a half months or so until the midterms on November 3rd. You're going to see Trump try to de-escalate. You're going to see Trump try to get gas prices lower. If we have the midterms tomorrow, Republicans are going to get smoked. That would limit what Trump can do. Cuz right now, it's a Republican House, Republican Senate, Republican presidency. You can kind of do what you want for the most part. If Democrats win the Senate, or the House for that matter, but looks like the Senate, you're not going to be able to get anything done. And I think that would be a slap in the face to Trump. I don't think Trump wants to lose the Senate. That's not, you know, suggestive that people support what what you're doing. So, over the next 2 months or so before the midterms, I do think we are more likely, not guaranteed, but more likely to get de-escalation rather than escalation. That would obviously be good for the stock market because oil, you know, when things escalate oil goes higher, inflation expectations go higher, it hurts the economy. When there's de-escalation and oil comes down, that's better for the Fed, gives the Fed room to not need to be so, you know, aggressive, better for the consumer, better for the business cycle, so on and so forth. And Iranian foreign minister again today says Tehran has not chosen to restart talks with the US. And there were only two vessels that crossed the Strait of Hormuz Friday with no crude shipments detected, according to Kepler. The UAE today says Iran attacked another ADNOC vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, marking the third such incident in less than a week. No injuries were reported, but Abu Dhabi urged Tehran to halt the attacks and fully reopen Hormuz, while warning it will defend its navigation rights and national interest. Now, if we take a look at the heat map on Friday, it was kind of a mixed bag across the board. Oil and gas did good as a sector group, but everything else kind of had green, it had red. Software was a loser, and I think that's just simply because software has went up so much recently, um like in the trading community. We bought a lot of software stocks on the dip, like we bought Rubrik at like $45 a share. The stock's it hit $106 on Friday. You know, we bought UiPath at $9. It's $16, almost $17 at at one point on Friday. You know, Zeta, we were buying that $14, $15, $16 a share. It's $29 a share today. You know, these stocks have like doubled in the last 3 to 4 months. Our portfolio is up 91 and 1/2% year-to-date. I'm not surprised that software is consolidating a little bit or seems to have started that on Friday. That is healthy. That is normal. That is a good thing. Now, if you guys want to come join the trading community, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. The only thing that we're doing is beating Wall Street to the puck. We're finding the opportunities like a sniper, finding them, executing on them with a 3 6 12 24-month time horizon. We don't have clients we have to print profit reports for every 3 months. We can buy the stock that's getting unjust, you know, that's getting unjustly punished for no reason and, you know, sit on it for 2 weeks, a month, and, you know, watch it do its thing. That link is down below if you guys would like to come join us. Obviously, don't be a jackass. I'm not a financial advisor, not a financial planner, not a fortune teller. You have to understand the companies that you are investing in. On Friday, we did have retail sales that came out. Retail sales came in really bad. It was -0.6%. We were expecting a positive number. So, that pushed up the probability of a hold from the Fed. So, September 16th, there's currently a 67.7% chance of a hold and a 32.3% chance of a rate hike. So, your economic data going forward, whether it's PCE or anything related to the economy, CPI or jobs reports or anything, anything is going to move these probabilities, especially with the Fed not giving us much in terms of forward guidance. You are still pricing in at least one rate hike, um, or or pretty close to pricing in a rate hike by the end of this year. There's a 32.8% chance of a hold. You're technically pricing in like 23 24 basis points of hikes by the end of this year. So, it's not a full rate hike, but it's not nothing either. So, it's kind of in the the the weird zone. But, I do think inflation will continue to come down. I don't think the labor market is as strong as the Fed believes, and I think this will continue to be a tailwind for the markets as we come to realize, "Hey, inflation's coming down. Labor market, it's not so hot that we need rate hikes, clearly." Right? So, that will be a tailwind, I believe, for the broadening trade to continue, for small caps, software, cyclicals, industrials. The CNN Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 65, which is right at about midpoint of greed. Market momentum is greed, stock price strength is fear, stock price breath is greed, put and call options greed, market volatility is neutral, safe haven demand extreme greed, junk bond demand in extreme greed as well. The AI Investor Sentiment Survey shows bullish investors at 34.7%, neutral investors at 27.4%, and bearish investors at 37.9%. So, there's still more bears than bulls out there. And we can kind of see that in this earning season, where, you know, if a company misses even a little bit, 20% taken off top, you know? To me, that's an opportunity for investing, right? To act like a sniper and to take these opportunities when we get them, where we get them. But, it also highlights that people are nervous right now. People are kind of on the bearish side. And there's a big reason for that. Because historically, right at about this time of the year, during a, you know, before a midterm election, you tend to get volatility to the downside, right? Late summer, not a lot of trading activity, just not a lot of liquidity. Right before the midterms, you do tend to have a bit of selling during this period. This is what you would call event risk, right? Event risk is something where Wall Street's going to hedge for it. They have to, kind of, to a certain extent. So, they're going out, they're shorting the markets more, they're buying less, they're hedging risk, especially after hardware stocks have recently, you know, a lot of them have collapsed and like Jane Street lost a lot of money. They're going out and being a lot more careful right now, putting on a lot more hedges, buying a lot less. It's because of the midterms, volatility around the Fed, midterms, um the Iran war. We don't know what's going to happen next. We could get bad news on Monday. We could get good news, right? You got to hedge for that if if you're a Wall Street firm. I don't think necessarily you should be hedging for that, right? Um but that's what they do. Now, after the midterms, historically, you're going to go basically vertical for the next 9 to 10 months. That's what you need to be preparing for right now. If we get opportunities right before this to buy, fantastic. We really want to be watching for the next 12 months or so after the midterms. Now, next week, obviously, we will be reacting to any news we get over this weekend via the Strait of Hormuz and Iran talks. I do think it is possible that by Monday morning, we are officially restarting talks with Iran again. I think we're kind of heading in that direction. After all, if Iran wants the US to meet their, you know, requirements of giving them their money back and and and some of these things, you have to restart talks first. So, I do think that could be coming. I'm I'm a little optimistic that the start of the week could be good, but we do have a lot of earnings for this week. But, it's really concentrated around like big box retailers. Home Depot, Tuesday Morning. Uh you also have Analog Devices here Wednesday pre-market, but Target, TJX, Lowe's, Estee Lauder. Win Saint after hours, Build.com, Coty, WeBull. Thursday pre-market, Walmart, Alibaba, you know, John Deere, Advance Auto Parts. And then Thursday in after hours, you have Ross. So, lots of retailers this week. It's going to give us a better insight to how people are spending money out there. And look, Walmart, that's kind of a economic barometer. Right? The economic data can be noisy, but Walmart's going to tell us how people are doing, how they see spending patterns and behaviors. And that's a big deal. We also have some economic data as well for this upcoming week. On Monday, you have uh the Empire New York Empire State Manufacturing, ADP employment change on Tuesday, building permits and housing starts on Tuesday. On uh Wednesday, you have the FOMC minutes and a 20-year bond auction. On Thursday, you have initial jobless claims and Philly Fed data. And then on Friday, you have the S&P Global Composite PMI Manufacturing and Services PMIs as well. Now, that is going to do it for today's video. In the next video, we will be talking about four key topics. Number one, midterm volatility is coming. Number two, post midterm rally positioning. Like, where do you position? Number three, what I'm doing right now. And number four, the new AI trade. Hit that subscribe button so you guys don't miss that video coming out at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time tonight. Hit the like button on your way out as well. If you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. Have a fantastic rest of your day, and I will see you in the next one.