Recommandations
L'entrée est le cours de clôture de l'actif à la date de publication. Le cours actuel est la dernière clôture enregistrée.
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Entrée $344,20 18 août 2026Actuel $344,20 18 août 2026Résultat +$0,00
Get under 340, honestly. Get to the 320s and I'm going to be buying Google. hand over fist for the first time probably in like two years.
Contexte “I keep looking to buy Google… Get under 340, honestly. Get to the 320s and I'm going to be buying Google.”
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Entrée $310,03 18 août 2026Actuel $310,03 18 août 2026Résultat +$0,00
I might trade this thing honestly if it starts to confirm a bounce back over 315 towards 320. That could be a confirmation on Apple.
Contexte “I might trade this thing honestly if it starts to confirm a bounce back over 315 towards 320.”
Transcription Complète
So, stocks are selling off a little bit today, guys. Bond yields are rising, the 10-year and the 30-year. And we have to break down kind of what's going on the charts, where my head's at. A couple earnings that came out from Home Depot, CLA, I believe. What's the other one here, guys? Uh, by Chinese company. So, yeah, let's dive into it. Hit the like button. Make sure to subscribe. Follow along for more content. And hit that hit that Patreon link if you want to be a part of the community. you see my trades, all my portfolio updates, that's in the bio, in the comments or go to stocksurfest.com/patreon. And with that being said, guys, cheers. I appreciate you all for tuning in as always and let's dive into it. So, as of right now, the Q's are leading the red. Go figure, right? on a red day. Uh the Q's are down 1 and a half% and you guys can see right here we're starting to draw down right near the 180 SMA on this 4hour chart as SPY is down not much really only half a percent also pulling down towards the 180 moving average. And if we take a look here, if I extend this drawing to the right, uh bear with me here, guys, we're actually approaching a critical support, which was resistance for months, which we've talked about time and time again at 760 on SPY. That level is holding right now, and it needs to hold for the bulls here. Um, and that is right by the 180 SMA as well on this time frame. So, we're down half a percent on SPY, about one and a half percent on the Q's. Uh, the Russell's down about 1%. Not too bad. This is actually above both moving averages still. It just hit all-time highs, literally two trading days ago, guys. And it's pulling down not bad at all. None of these are bad. These are all healthy pullbacks, by the way. This isn't a crash. It's not, you know, we're not going to do a crazy, you know, dramatic thumbnail with a crash. It's not, it's not a crash. This is simply a pullback um in the overall market. And again, we're holding trend. Russell only down.9% after just hitting all-time highs. Dow's barely down. The Dow Jones is only down what, less than a quarter percent, about 90 points right now. And buyers are already coming in above this 50 mo uh moving average. You guys see the the green candlestick being put in. So, we are looking strong across the board here. Um, even though we're down across the board, you know, VIX is up 3.6%. Oil continues to trickle up. I mean, crude, uh, WTI crude is up 1 and a4%, 85 a barrel. Uh, Brent is at 92 a barrel, up 1%. These are not near the highs yet from where they were about a month ago, but we're starting to creep up again as the US Iran talks are stalling. Who the heck knows what's going to happen with that, when it's going to get resolved. The oil market clearly believes uh you know, it might not happen anytime soon. The straight might be closed for longer. Um so we're seeing oil continue to to truck along here, guys. Bitcoin's at 65K, up around 1%, not much as silver and gold are both down. Uh, silver's down three and a half% almost. Not the best day for the metals today, guys. Gold's down about 1 and a4%. So, it's one of those days. Oil's up, yields are up, right? 30-year, 10-year, Bitcoin's up, VIX is up about 4%, which I feel like the VIX could creep up even more. Um, I was doing some research on the VIX around midterms. Um, you know, usually the VIX does start to creep up leading into midterms. It peaks, I think I was reading, um, it usually peaks like 2 to 3 weeks, maybe before the actual election. Um, so the VIX might might continue to creep up here, guys. In fact, I think the VIX futures for November might already be at 20. Um, so I mean these th this this is um clearly starting to creep up. We got way too complacent on the VIX at 13 14 and uh it's starting it's starting to pop. I don't know if it's going to go to 20 25 30 for sure. Uh but you know during midterm elections historically based on the data guys that I was looking at um you know this creeps up to 18 19 20 it could get above that and uh we'll see what happens after. Usually like I said it peaks around two weeks before the actual election. Uh then it starts to taper off a little bit. Uh but yeah keep your eyes on the VIX. The overall market obviously it's not that big a deal. We're selling off. How many green days have we had recently? I mean, not not a crazy amount, but I mean, if we look on the 20-day chart, we have been pretty green. This August, I mean, it's been 3 weeks in August so far, roughly. Um, the Q's are up a good chunk, about 8% still, even with this pullback. So, we're we've been doing well. We've been due for a little pullback. We're getting it. Now, if the Q's completely take out 700 again, uh, yeah, that would not be good, right? But for now, we're nowhere near that. We're at 718. It's a little pullback. No big deal. Um, is what I'm I'm noticing on the charts. But I am considering some hedges here, guys, heading into uh midterms, you know, beyond VIX calls. I talked about that in uh previous videos. I'm considering put spreads on the cues right now. Uh I'm considering potentially puts on SPY, but I think the Q's make more sense uh for my personal situation considering I'm in uh you know a lot of tech stocks, right? So that would be the proper hedge uh for me. There there are a bunch of ways to do it. You can buy you can literally short the market, which I don't like doing that. If I'm going to short the market, I'm buying puts. I'm not traditionally shorting the market, guys. uh you know, there's more downside to that than a fixed amount of um contracts you buy, uh you know, puts, whatever it may be. But that's kind of where my head's at right now. I don't think we're in a full-blown crash. Obviously, I think things could get rocky heading into the midterms, possible, which is why I'm considering uh potentially VIX calls, put spreads on the cues. Things could get a little rocky over the next couple of weeks, months. Uh, but are we in a full-blown crash? No, we're not. That's the reality. Um, so let's cover a couple of stocks here quickly that had earnings. Break down the earnings, the charts, what's going on. So, Home Depot reported the stocks up 3/4 of a percent. Not bad in a red day, guys. And this stock hit 350 initially, I believe, or you know, once the earnings came out, we hit 352. Saw the draw down to 330 at open. Uh, so talk about volatility. Now we're back to 340. So, Home Depot reported earnings per share adjusted of $4.92 versus the $473 estimate on sales of 47.86 billion versus 47.27 billion expected. So, double beat out of Home Depot. Um, it looks like they got comparable sales for Q2 up 1.7%. Comparable sales in the US up 1.3%. Uh, pretty good. They reaffirmed their fiscal 26. Um, it looks like guidance is that for I guess sales and EPS. So, not bad. Not bad, man. For Home Depot, uh, they said they received $730 million in tariff refunds. Um, yeah, a lot of these corporations, guys, I'm sure you've seen they're getting crazy tariff refunds, almost a billion dollar uh, for Home Depot. And I'm sure you've seen the other companies uh which we're not going to get into now, but not a bad quarter out of Home Depot. Um the reaffirmed guidance is well reassuring and the fact that we're up on a red day, we're consolidating at 340 is a good sign. Uh but we're not obviously uh breaking out yet, fully breaking out yet. We need to take out at least 360. Um you know, that's right around where we were obviously back in, you know, earlier this month. uh back in the early days of July, back in the middle of April, that's where we were. So, we need to ultimately get out of 360 and in the very short term, we have to hold uh 340. That's critical and actually start to rebound back towards 350, fill the gap to 360 to test the actual breakout. That's what we need to do here um you know on Home Depot. So, let me see what else. What other companies buy, do reported, which I didn't look at this one. And oh man, this thing is tanking, guys. By do's down 12%, fresh low for the year. Uh we're down to $91. We hit 165 back in January. O, what a rough year for BYU. And this is why, look, I'm not the biggest fan of Chinese stocks, you know, having a lot of money in Chinese stocks. I do own a speculative name right now, which hasn't been doing well. Um, admittedly, it's XNET. Uh, it's a very small position for me, guys. very negligible quite frankly. But I learned the Chinese lesson uh you know well the the Chinese stock lesson uh back in what early 2020 or what I forget when year a couple years ago right I bought Alibaba and it wasn't a negligible position. I I put a decent amount of money at the time uh in relation to my overall accounts and it didn't do well. you know, the the numbers made sense, everything made sense, but it didn't do well. And uh you know, owning a lot of these ADRs, man, it's it's risky. You know, you could do well, but I I wouldn't put a ton of money into them, personally. So, I learned the bigger lesson with Alibaba. I dabbled a little bit here with XNET again a couple months ago and well it's down but I think there could be more upside potentially or there could be upside in general in a lot of these Chinese names but there's higher risk and for XATE in particular I'm just holding on letting it ride um I'm going to give it another couple months and we'll re-evaluate uh but going back to buy do man this thing is at a fresh low on the year um earnings let's see what They did quickly EPS. Oh man, they missed EPS and revenue. A$16 EPS that missed the $135. That's adjusted EPS on sales of 4.61 billion versus 4.65 billion. Um, so they double missed. Oh, not a great sign. Um, it looks like we're hearing the advertising cash cow is losing steam. Uh, the buy they're doing an AI pivot. Let's see how that plays out. Honestly, I haven't been tracking by due too much or really many of these Chinese companies at all. Uh but you know, if they get low enough, it might be worth looking deeper into. But then again, with a super small amount of money, I much rather just buy a Chinese ETF if I want to get exposure um to that theme. Uh so, I don't know. What do you guys think? By do's falling off a cliff. I doubt many of you guys own by do. Maybe I'm sure somebody does out there watching. Uh but yeah, that's my thought on Chinese stocks. I learned a bigger lesson a couple years ago going heavily into Alibaba. Um and now when I mess with them, if I even do, I use a speculative amount of money, a smaller amount of money, uh you know, just cuz I lost a decent chunk on Alibaba. That's the reality. And CLA reported um and guys, it's down 20%. Uh CLA is not looking good, man. We thought potentially it was setting up for a breakout. This is why I don't gamble on earnings. A lot of the time it you know it's it it's um beneficial to me. If I bought calls on CLA, uh, you know, I wasn't going to, but let's say I did, this is this would not be good, you know, and sometimes when, you know, you kind of want to gamble on earnings, you're about to, and you hold off and you think about your principles in trading and investing, sometimes you're you're going to lose out on money. That's the reality. Uh, but a lot of the time you're going to save yourself a bunch of money, right? That's the reality, too. Um, and for me guys, listen, I I I don't trade the um the earnings. And a lot of the time I'm like, thank God I didn't do it. But sometimes I'm like, oh, you know, the greedy side of me comes in and and I'm like, oh, I should have done it, man. With Palunteer, I was about to buy calls on Palunteer. Um, and I would have made so much money. That's one that I missed out on. You know what I mean? It's part of it. It's part of sticking to the rules of your plan, your your principles of trading. And for me, I'm just not in the business of gambling on earnings at this point, you know. Um, when I first started trading, when I didn't have much money 10 years ago, 11 years ago, yeah, sure, I was gambling on earnings. I was trying to make a ton of money fast, get rich quick, and uh, yeah, we we learned some lessons. So, CLA reported, let me see here, guys. They reported earnings of a penny, a whopping penny versus the loss of 5 cents from last year on sales of 1.04 billion versus 993 million. Um, so double beat out of CLA. They see fullear sales of 4.08 to 4.16 billion uh versus 4.41 billion. So pretty good numbers out of CLA for the guidance. Uh, actually no, that's I read that wrong. No, that is not good guidance. Okay, that that is why they're tanking. Okay, they beat EPS in revenue. I I read it wrong there, guys. Um but their guidance, oh my god, they now see 4.08 to 4.16 versus 4.41 billion expected for the fullear revenue. That is why the stock's tanking. Um so I mean listen, CLA is one of those where buy now pay later. You know, I'm not a big fan of this in society. You know, when people buy now b uh pay later for like a burrito or something, I just face palm and I'm like, "Oh my goodness, what has America come to? What has this country come to?" I get it. Inflation times are tough for some people. But if you are doing CLA for a freaking burrito, don't do it. Don't do it. I mean, this stuff is crazy. You know, you would think with the economy not being so good quote unquote. Uh Clara would be doing well, but they have not been doing well. Their stock at least. Um and it's one of those where again it's like I get why people use it, but it's like I think it's bad for society. Um you know, you would think the stock would do well, but it's not. So it's like h I don't know what to do with it. So I'm just keeping it on the watch list for now. And overall, man, not every stock's down. Not every stock's down today. You know, the indices are all down. A lot of these stocks are tanking that we covered today, but names like, well, Dolingo, we're up 7%. Some of these software names are not doing so bad. It's the day of software. It seems like every time we have a nasty day on the cues, at least recently. Um, sometimes, you know, these software names have been doing pretty well in the face of the uh the red days. Um, we have stocks like CRM up 3.3%. Toast, which I'm long, up 2.7%. Very nice bounce for Toast today, guys. And Toast is up roughly off the lows about 60% 55 60%. So, day of the software today. Um, Apple's doing well too when it comes to big tech. Apple hit 311 I think earlier. Now it's back to 309. Uh but still it's up one and a quarter percent. We're arguably putting in a bottom here on Apple and I might trade this thing honestly if it starts to confirm a bounce back over 315 towards 320. Uh that could be a confirmation on Apple. So I like the way that's shaping up. Service Now is up 1.8% on the day. Even Tesla's somehow squeezing in a green day here. Um you know and Google I keep looking at Google guys and I'm like get under 340. I'm watching it. I'm looking to buy more. We did get to 338 this morning. I want it even lower. I want it even lower. Get under 340, honestly. Get to the 320s and I'm going to be buying Google. Um, hand over fist for the first time probably in like two years. Um, I haven't bought a ton of Google in the last two years. I've nibbled here and there, right? But yeah, I'm waiting for this to come down a little bit more and I think we might get it. So, what do you guys think? Let me know in the comments. Hit the like button. I'm rambling a little bit, so let's wrap it up here. Um, and make sure to subscribe, hit the follow button, and join my Patreon if you guys want to keep up with my portfolio updates, trades, investments. If you want to be a part of my private Discord, that's linked down below, pinned in the comments, or go to stocksurfest.com/patreon. I'll see you guys in there. And with that being said, cheers. Have a great rest of your
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