TOM LEE'S NEW PREDICTIONS FOLLOWED BY HALF TIME AND ICHIMOKU ANALYSIS 08/18

Blue cloud trading [singing] through the night. >> Welcome back to the channel everyone. [music] In just a second, I'm going to play a few CNBC clips from today's episode of the halftime report. I'm going to pull up the charts and dive into the technicals of some of the mentioned stocks. We're going to look at the key support, resistance levels, momentum, and see if the price action actually backs up what the talking heads are saying. Hit that like button. Subscribe if you haven't already and let's roll the tape on the first clip. >> Stocks are near session lows with uh with Iran tensions and the Fed all looming in the background. Welcome to Power Lunch alongside Robert Frank. Welcome, Robert. Great to be here. >> I'm Kelly Evans. Brian is out today. And Meta is on trial. One of the world's most powerful tech companies facing a major legal test. Opening arguments begin tomorrow. What's at stake? We'll get you ready for what to expect. >> And it's a huge week for retail earnings. Home Depot, Lowe's, Target, Walmart, all on deck. Are shoppers still spending? And who is winning the battle for the American wallet? Retail expert Jan Niffin going to give us the lowdown. And then some serious toys. Brunswick CEO will show off a high techch boat that drives itself. Plus, two Italian supercars making a lot of headlines. The boat drives itself now. Okay, that's what I hear. And we begin with the ever growing AI tab because the AI spending boom may be far bigger than even the headline capex numbers suggest. According to the Wall Street Journal, nine major tech companies have racked up roughly $3 trillion in offbalance sheet commitments. Much of that tied to data centers, chips, and infrastructure needed to power AI. That's five times the 600 billion or so they've officially reported in capital spending over the past year. And these future obligations, they're growing a lot faster. So, is Wall Street underestimating the true cost of the AI arms race? And should investors be worried? Joining us now is Pence Capital Management CIO Dryen Pence and Fund Strat's head of research Tom Lee. It's great to have you both here. >> Great to be here. >> Dryen, kick us off. Uh, first of all, what are your thoughts on on the mag seven type of big tech? I don't like the word hyperscalers, but um, are these companies that you own or have been avoiding? just so we get a sense for how the these commitments might factor into your your view. >> Short short answer is yes, we own them. Uh and for a long time I've been saying buy chips on dips. Uh because we think that this is this is just the infrastructure buildout of AI. And so when we look at all these large numbers, we're recognizing we're going through a transformation for our economy that's as as big as a transcontinental railroad. We're spending about two 2 and a half% of our total GDP >> on on the AI buildout, maybe a little bit more. Well, that's about what we spit on the transcontinental railroad from 1850 to 18. >> Refresh my memory. Which were the right rail railroad stocks to bend on during that time. >> Not all of them. >> Not all of them. And that's true. Not everybody is going to knock the cover off the ball. But you have this insatiable desire for being in front of what's really important. I mean, it only matters if it increases labor productivity. If AI doesn't increase labor productivity, it's just >> game. You don't care if it's 600 billion here or whatever trillion in the future. as long as they're spending on the railroad boom, you're okay owning these stocks. >> We're we're spending on the AI boom and and we're spending we're going to in 2027 we're going to spend more on AI and the and that boom than we do on the Department of Defense. Here's the thing that uh Tom I wonder about the Wall Street Journal article because when I see all that off-balance sheet financing I start to remember Enron and all the offbalance sheet financing and it's on top of that you've got these structures with the private credit funds that have a holding company that's in the JV and then there's a third company that actually is issuing the bonds. So, in the end, who's holding the bag? And is that more obfiscation than actual good business? And should we be worried about what seems to be a lack of transparency in terms of who's really lending the money and who's going to be stuck with it in the end? Um, it's a great question because I was a tech analyst during the dotcom and fiber boom of the 90s and uh the people investing capital at that time were not of the same ilk and caliber of the mag 7. You know, these were companies that were digging up railroad lines and uh doing those IRUs, you know, which was actually >> what's an IRU? It was a uh revenue swap between fiber companies. So you could create hundreds of billions of dollars of uh contractual revenue. And um today we have companies with fairly sizable moes and some of the highest profit margins and return on capital in history and have as the Bezos metric have delivered trillions of dollars of shareholder return that are now directing their investment on building uh a new mode around AI. So I have a lot more confidence that these are highlevel board wellreasoned companies investing but they're eyepopping numbers but the reality is >> why not do it on balance sheet? Well, one uh they could do it on balance sheet, but if they did, they would be taking up all the capital of the world and all the risk and therefore actually make it harder for any I would argue that that would make it harder for to democratize. >> Can I ask an accounting question? We're we were calling this off [laughter] I did get a C in accounting. I got a C. So, I need to ask all of you to make sure I'm understanding this. They have offbalance sheet commitments because they're future commitments. Is that right? These are they're not hiding anything. Yes. They they're not on the balance sheet because they don't flow through the balance sheet until the building actually begins. So in other words, are they >> this is just a different way to look at what if they say, "Okay, we're going to spend whatever amount in 2027." Can you explain to me exactly what these commitments are and why they're not on the balance sheet and when they will be? >> Yeah. Um well I think maybe a good place to start is I think that the revelations uh from the journal article are actually helpful but they're giving people an incomplete picture of how financial systems work because if you do uh you know the gross obligations of the financial system it's multiple times the underlying assets >> always or just today >> always in fact that's why Warren Buffett used to call credit derivatives you know the weapons of mass destruction >> are these credit derivatives that we're talking about though or these are just future spend commitments. >> It's the same arguably it's not that different because if you did like gross exposure of uh swaps or options like look at in any day options contracts are multiples of cash underlying. So if someone says oh there's a hidden offbalance sheet risk that retail investors have 20 times the size of the stock market in bets. We'd be like well there's the offset. So I I would say when we look at these numbers uh it's giving a distorted view of the actual risk. >> Let me just press this analogy one more. In other words, do you think that the spending is representing multiple possibilities of spend that's only going to manifest in one way? >> I think to me um none of these contracts like are going to lead to criminal liability. Like in other words like a company can decide to cut spending in the future and the contract should be weak. So like the 3 trillion isn't like you know people have to like write sign over their kidneys to to meet >> and Den how should investors think about this? I mean should they be worried or should they be encouraged that wow it's not just $600 billion it's going it's actually an additional you know 1.4 or up to three trillion and so therefore that's a good sign about the future of AI. How should investors interpret all this? I >> I think it's a good sign because companies are making a lot of money free cash flow and what were they doing before? They were buying back their own stock. they were they didn't have anywhere to go with the money that they were making. And so I like it when someone said, "No, I'm not going to buy back my stock because I'm going to actually put it into the thing that I do best, which is grow and do these things." So I like that the capital is being redeployed into what these companies do because that's their core business. They're not hedge funds. They need to be out there putting their money to work in what they do. So as a a growth investor, I like it. I like CFOs and I like CEOs and I like boards going like this is our fast ball. We're Microsoft. >> And you talked about the [clears throat] productivity litmus test. A lot of this particularly the bonds are based on revenue expectations in two to three years that are ginormous compared to what they are today. Do you think we get there based on what you >> I mean 56% of the companies today have an AI account but only about 30% of them are I mean 30% of them say hey I'm seeing increased labor productivity and only 7% say we fully implemented. So you have all of these companies that have yet to play. You have all these companies that are just now scratching the surface. We're moving from we're moving from infrastructure to implementation. We're moving from proof of concept to rapid adoption. And this is an area time where we think you know margins are good. uh you know the wide moes are getting wider. >> You think that can happen without a dramatic rise in unemployment? >> Yes. >> That that those productivity gains because productivity gains come in some ways by replacing workers with AI. >> Well, this is true. But you've seen this every time. I mean, you know, people got upset. The guys who were shoeing horses got upset when the Model T came out, but next thing you know, they got a they got a perfectly good job working in the factory and they were making more money was over with. So I think that that we see this transition, but I think it's it's positive. This it's it's Jean's paradox. And >> so it's a J curve. You don't see the bottom of that J curve being too severe. >> No, I don't. No, I don't. And and we only need about 30 to 40,000 jobs a month to maintain our unemployment right now anyway. So the break even point is less, >> the adoption's more, labor productivity is greater, and that increases profit margins. >> I'll end by put I'll just throw another major concern on the table. I mean, why not? Do you Tom 40 trillion in the national debt last night? Do what is your reaction to or take on that? >> I mean it's pretty shocking that we're in a booming economy and the deficit's growing. Um so >> missiles are expensive. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Interest is expensive. >> Yes. >> Yeah. It seems like there's a lot of like outflows. I I agree with the folks who think that this is a structural concern, but the bond market today is signaling that it's completely okay with it. So, I think as long as it's okay with it, the stock market is fine. So, that that that little blip in the 30-year, we saw those like, oh, oh, the deficit suddenly an issue that we saw last week with that that sale. You don't think that that was really a big move or that that's going to continue? Yeah, I mean it's it is a symbolic rate because as you know maybe more companies are dependent on the spread to the tenure, right? >> So that's the more important rate to watch, but again like I I don't think it makes any sense to not be fiscally sound as a nation. So it is >> it's hard it's really hard to figure out. >> You know what's amazing is that 10year range has been so tight >> for so long and and you know everything tells you that that should be higher or you know but but it's >> but here's the crazy part. It was sub four. I'm I'm I'm stealing Rick's lines from his mouth. We were below 4% on the tenure right before the Iran war broke out and oil prices. But now the oil price is back down and the tenure is at 471, >> right? And you could argue oil should be higher today and everything else, but it's not. >> Yeah. Dry in a quick final thought. >> Well, the short answer is is oil in the 80s. We're fine. At low 80s, we're fine. The economy works fine. And then if you get down into the 70s, we get to $3 gas again. So I think that we at some point this resolves. Look, you know, economics beats politics every time. >> I don't know about that. >> And sooner and and sooner or later, we're going to be able to be in a situation where we'll have better economics. >> Dryen, I want to believe you. I will hope to believe you. Tom, thanks so much for joining us, guys. We appreciate it. Dryen Pence and Tom Lee. All right. All right, guys. Thanks so much. Welcome to the halftime report. I'm Scott Wner. Front and [music] center this hour. The backup in yields. What it means for the record run in stocks. NASDAQ weaker. Growth names are among [music] the hardest hit today. trading all of it with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour, Jason [music] Snipe, Joe Teranova, Stephanie Link, and Talkington. Take you to the markets. We uh you probably know right across the board. Uh it is very much a yields story backing up really everywhere. Uh here, Germany, uh Japan. [snorts] So, we'll follow that as Edard Denny says today, the bond vigilantes are stirring. Fund Strat's Mark Newton, he's the technician with Tom Lee, says the bond market's starting to show its hand and equities won't ignore it for long. Are these the early stages of the paying more attention to the backup in yields or no? >> No, I think it absolutely is, Scott. And I think for me, as I as I think about the yield story over the last couple weeks and and the acceleration there, you know, the the story for me is we are the 10 years approaching 5%. And I think it's really a real rate story. Once the real rate uh yields are between 2 to 3%, I think that's where we start to see some disruption in the equity market because I think now there's a reasonable alternative um to not take on risk and be in fixed income, especially for the baby boomers who, you know, we know there's a lot of them out here um that are that are looking for opportunities like this. And I think it's an interesting place. And I think the other point I will make, China is no longer a buyer, right? Japan is it's expensive. They're not buying right now. So that's why we're seeing some of the acceleration plus inflation expectations. Obviously, what's going on with the conflict in Iran, you know, the that story, I think, plays a role. So, you know, it's it's it's a it's a time to kind of reflect on this. Um, but I think that is the story. It's really about the real race. >> Yeah, that's the story right there. The 30-year, right? Um, look at that move uh that we've had recently. It's the speed in which the 30-year yield has continued to extend the highs that it hadn't seen since ' 07. So, it's been a minute since it's happened. Why are yields rising? Do you have to ask that question to decide, Joe, whether it's going to have a broader impact on the stock market? Because you could find a number of reasons that people keep pointing to. debt and deficit uh the incredible amount of issuance that is coming on the market from the likes of the hyperscalers obviously as they look to build out their AI infrastructure the price to be paid perhaps as Steve Leeman has framed it for a a lack of communication if you will from the Fed so it's a confluence of events that have led to this backup in yields as we said it's not just a US story but it needs to be focused on perhaps a little bit more the market kind of wants to Edardenni says the bond vigilantes are. What do you think? >> Well, I I I think you listed uh some some reasoning which is is fair. I think you want to add upon that that the demographics of the investor base has changed. I think you have an investor base, a generation now that's grown up on equities and is less inclined uh to purchase bonds even when they recognize the value. You asked the question yesterday, Scott. You asked me sitting on this desk. You asked others on closing bell. When will rising yields matter? Last night, they became a fundamental trigger for rotation within the market, which most impacted momentum overnight with this breakout and and identify whatever geographic region you want, whether it be Germany, the UK, France, or the US. There's your fundamental trigger. The macro funds and the algorithms now have to derisk. They have to derisk. They have to look at exposure. where there's excessive leverage, they begin to take that down. Where there's overweight positioning, they take that down. It initiates an algorithm process, which we're seeing throughout this morning, where you're rotating into different baskets. It's growth versus value. It's semis versus software. It's long duration versus real economy stocks. In financials, it's money center banks versus insurance companies. It's a basket rotation. I don't think it's a one-day event. It broke the fever in momentum, which is what we were looking for as an indicator. >> Yeah, it was a good fever. I mean, you had a five-day win streak for for momentum, the MTUM anyway. Um, and it is going to break that today. You mentioned your ETF was at a record high. It's like tracks the same sort of thing at least to some degree. The DRAM memory ETF, which is about as close a look as momentum as you can ever get. Same. It's about to snap a fiveday win streak. So those Steph seem to be the the epicenter of the pain of of this trade of of rising yields. The question is like Mark Newton says today that the bond market's starting to show its hand and equities won't ignore it for long. There has to be a price at some point for a swift back up in yields. Correct. >> Yeah. And I think Jason hit it. the 10 year if it gets to 5% for a long period of time not just touch it and then go down it's got to stay there for a while you'll have some switchers I do think it's interesting Scott in the past year that we have seen the range in the tenure 80 basis points with all this news with all of this commotion that we've had all year long in terms of uncertainty right like with private credit with Venezuela with SCOTas and and tariffs with the war and yet we're in an 80 basis point range I find that fascinating actually so going back to the why. Absolutely. AI issuance, debt deficits, war. But you also miss something. It's better growth. We're seeing better growth here, too. >> I believe that's one of the reasons, not the only reason, and that's important. >> We just printed 1.5 for GDP. >> Right. >> In normal times, you'd say, well, is that really a great representation of higher growth? >> I'm not so sure it is. >> Well, the Atlanta Fed tracker is running at 4.8%. I know, but that could change like in 10 minutes the way that that thing changes. >> It can, but all of the data points that we've seen since last quarter, we've seen an acceleration. >> Retail sales weren't good. >> You average, you have to average the two months retail sales, Scott. Absolutely. You had a pull forward in Prime Day at Amazon and that skewed the number to 8%. >> Jobs number wasn't good. The last jobs number wasn't good. I mean, >> well, the weekly the weekly claims are historically low. So, you can pick whatever you want to look at. I'm talking about [laughter] the most critical of economic data. retail sales and jobs reports and they both the last three haven't been good >> and the twomonth average is 5 a 12% for retail sales and the consumer has a job if you look at the weekly jobless claims that's real time data the non-farm payroll numbers get revised so many different times it's not consistent to me I think that the economy is much healthier and I it is one of the factors on the rising yields not the only factor but you have to take into consideration growth and growth Better growth, by the way, will help debts and deficits. >> That's fine. But you can't tell me that you I'm sorry, but you can't tell me that, you know, as we were sitting here, not you and me, but as I was sitting here listening to the Fed chair in the last meeting, we hit 520 on the the 30-year as we saw that start to spike on some of the uncertainty and the more hawkishness that that they definitely What do you mean? It was happening in real time. And now we're 10 basis. But now we're 10 basis points higher >> than [snorts] we were then. There there has to be a cause and effect somewhere. >> It's not just one thing. >> No, I I listed three things. >> Well, I just listed four things and I added growth to what your other three were. So I'm just saying that there's a lot of things that are having an impact in the bond market and at the same time we haven't seen like we're not at five yet on the 10 year, right? And we're in this 80 basis point range which I think is really very very important. And the growth in the economy is leading to better earnings. And the AI story is not going away anytime soon. And the consumer continues to consume. So maybe if we're growing, are we growing 4%? Are we growing five? Are we growing three? We're not growing one and a half. We're accelerating from one and a half. >> Brim. >> Yeah. I think to to lean into what Steph is saying on this 80 basis point. I mean we have these conversations once a year. If you go back and look at that 10-year yield chart going back to 2023, we hit this range, if not higher, in 2023 and 2024 and [snorts] 2025. And every time it's like, is this time different? Is the 10ear going to go above five and stay? And every time it has come right back down and so I think if you take Steph's Steph's commentary about the 80 basis point move this year, you can actually go back to 2023 and you have almost the exact same dynamic. And so I do think that the direction right now clearly of global yields. This is not about wars. This is like global yields are going higher is real and you don't want to ignore it. But if you would have actually sold into it in 2023, 2024, 2025, that would have been a terrible decision for an equity investor. So I think everyone needs to like settle in here, see if we trade back down. Obviously we just inter intervened in the yen that joint intervention. We'll see what happens, you know, globally, but I think this is just a little a little tantrum here and that if we look back a few years, we have always come down off of that. Maybe this time is different, but right now I would just say the past 3 years is going to be my base case for this year. >> Yep. Uh we're on CD CDS watch a little bit again. Show me Nvidia's guys, please, cuz there's some focus on that today. It has now topped the late July high. So we continue to watch that. You know, there was all that focus on Oracle and its own CDS, but you have to pay attention at least a little bit to what's happened with Nvidia's year to date up 100% for for the CDS. Um, you do have talk about crowded trades in semis from the fund manager survey at Bank of America. Long global semiconductors is the most crowded trade around. I mean, what what do you think? I think that's I think that's where the conversation really finds a sweet spot. Um I think we're making maybe a little bit more. I I I I agree and disagree with both of you on this. I don't think yields rose overnight because it was this dramatic growth, but yet to your point, the economy is good enough. Consumer discretionary stocks are higher today. So they would actually be lower in this. I I think this is the yields rising is a trigger for working off leverage. I think macro funds are the dominant players today. I think the algorithms are in charge. I think there's 251 trading days in 2026. Today is day 157. They all don't look the same. And I think this is one day in a grand journey of an overall secular bull market. I [snorts] think if you see yields continue to rise at a precipitous pace, another 25 50 basis points. I don't think anyone is not going to acknowledge we have a problem for risk assets. Okay. But I think what you have in front of us today was a fundamental trigger to reallocate and take down leverage exposure. >> It depends too where you're obviously looking. Um higher rates at the long end are not good for the housing trade. Um pending home sales did miss down in all regions of the country. The home construction ETF coming off its sixth down week in the past seven. Uh Stephanie Link expressing I think uh what many are thinking about but what was your at one point at least your favorite trade I think in this market housing. >> It was like two years ago and I've made 15% which is not >> but you hadn't really changed your tune on it much recently but now you've sold Dr. Horton and Toll Brothers. So that's that's a statement in of itself. I know, I know I made some money, but the reality is, and I've been saying this for 2 years, is you need the 30-year fix, something close to 5, 5 1/2% for us to see better demand trends. And we're at 6.8% today on the 30-year, even if rates come down. We're not going to get to below six. And I just think that's the overhang on these stocks. Should I have recognized it earlier? Of course. But I still made money in these names. They're still very cheap. They're still doing incredibly well given the macro. But when Home Depot says that the housing market is frozen, that's the reality. Now, I sold these stocks last week, but the reality is what is what they're telling us today. >> Well, I mean, the housing market's been frozen for the last few years. Nothing's changed. It's only gotten the freeze has gotten deeper. >> Of course. Of course. And I got these stocks when they were trading at one times book value. And I'm up a bit. Not crazy, but I'm up. I'm going to take my gain so I don't lose it all. And I'm just going to call it a day. And you know what? I will revisit this trade when there is better visibility with regards to the 30-year fix because I still very much believe that there is not enough supply out there. There is pent-up demand. We have 5 million homes short in this country and that's not changing anytime soon. In fact, it might even get worse given the interest rate environment. So eventually I think this pent-up demand is going to find a home. Yes, pun intended. But that's when I will probably go back. >> Toll reports today, by the way. >> It'll be fine. They're at the high end. They'll be fine. >> Dr. You own Dr. Horton. What do you think of the move of just like, okay, I've made some money here. >> Yeah. >> The freeze doesn't feel like it's thawing anytime soon, so I'm out. There's just other things to do. >> I I mean, I get it. This trade is is hard, right? I mean, we were talking about earlier in the show, you know, with the with the uh 30-year uh close to 7%. It's a it's a hard move to make. So, >> hey, hold on one second, too. I'll come right back to you because Diana Ol has updated mortgage rate uh information, I think, that just crossed. What What do you see here, D? Well, the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage inched up again this morning to 6.75%. That's according to Mortgage News Daily. Now, as you guys have been talking about, rates have been hovering around the higher end, highest levels in over a year, in fact, and that's hitting affordability once more. You know, we got the numbers on pending home sales this morning, and they were well below expectations. That's signed contracts on existing homes. The realtors noted higher mortgage rates specifically in their report. We also just got single family housing starts in July and that was an even bigger drop than expected down 10% from June, down 16% year-over-year. So guess what? Stocks of the builders are not loving that. The homebuilder ETF ITV is in the red so far today. We do get quarterly earnings later as I heard you guys talking about from luxury home builder Toll Brothers. Toll has been performing better than its peers because of course the high-end is doing better. And again, in that report on builder sentiment yesterday, the NAHB noted that custom builders, more on the high end, were doing much better than the big production builders. So once again, it's all about rates and affordability. Scott, >> yeah, no question. Perfect timing for us, Diane Ol. Thanks so much for that. Sorry to cut you off, but wanted to get that in now. >> No, it's important. It's important. So what I would say is obviously affordability is the issue, right? The average single family home in America is $515,000, right? And obviously Dr. Horton focuses on the lower end. Their average selling price over the last 12 months at the end of their fiscal in the June of of of this year is 362,000. Right? So the problem is they continue they're giving all the incentives away which are cutting into their margins. That's why the stock's only up 2%. It's a hard trade. I'm going to hang on to this but it's definitely in removed mode for us. Homebuilders you will be okay with because they're able to focus on their margins. They're smart enough to know when housing starts for single family homes are at the lowest level since 2022 and mortgage rates are rising. They're not there's no new construction that's happening. They're going to focus on protecting their margin. They know that the construction costs are rising. So that's awful for home buyers in this country. We are in a housing recession. We're doing nothing to resolve it. We're moving into a midterm election with mortgage rates rising. Extrapolate the outcome however you choose, but that's problematic. So for a home builder, you're sitting very disciplined in what your cost management is going to be and that's going to protect your margin. >> And I think that's a hard stock to own based on what you just said. I don't think you're going to see the stocks rerate. I don't think you're going to see estimates go higher. In fact, they could actually go lower. And I just think that that's not a good recipe for action in the stock market. And that's opportunity. >> Cole has sort of benefited from the, as you guys already said, the K-shaped economy, right? the luxury home builder is going to do better. It's up 9% that stock is over the last 12 months whereas a LAR is down 34%. And some of the other names KB for example is down more than 12. Nothing else in that space has really done anything other than toll. We have PY in the ETF. The momentum has now flattened out. It's basically unchanged to your point over a 12-month period. So, it is a difficult environment, but you can make the argument that unchanged over a 12-month period in a housing recession is actually relative outperformance to some degree, >> right? But there's opportunity costs in terms of owning these stocks. I'd rather put my money elsewhere where I can have a better return. >> Yeah. All right. financials, maybe you want to put your money there. Uh because they've been on quite a run and the, you know, if you're going to have a a more pronounced bare steepening in the curve, then obviously you're going to look at financials as a place that could benefit from that. You've come off 11 straight weeks of gains for that space. It's the longest ever. We hit a record high last week. That's where a lot of the activity, Bin, has been within the financial universe. And now people like it, I think, a little bit more because as Steph said, the the economy is still good. Um, and higher rates are just better for net interest margins, >> right? Because you can have the short end that you're lending. You can you can you have that huge delta between the short and the long end, which is great for banks. I also need I also think you need to think what type of bank are you buying, you know? So, we're Goldman, people are buying Goldman, I think, for trading and IPOs. Bank of America is like the consumer. JP Morgan is like all of all together. And so I do think that if we were going to keep this steep yield curve, I think you could actually get that baked into earnings over the next few quarters. But I still think there's going to be a lot of volatility. And I still go back to my original commentary about looking at the tenure over the past 3 years. We've been incredibly rangebound. It's been very volatile. And so I think ultimately if rates come back down then this this this trade per se doesn't have that many that much legs I'll say from a trade long term though the financials have been a great asset class to own. >> Yeah look Bank of America Steph um up 26% in 3 months a record high yesterday. State Street Joe record high yesterday. Mnt Bank record high. Schwab hit a record high. You have you know you've had JP Morgan's up 20% in in three months. Yeah, I'm overweight the banks. Um, and I also own Capital One, too, which I think is the best bargain out there at this moment in time. But in Bank of America, they've really had such a great quarter. I mean, I haven't seen 15% revenue growth, ROCE, 17%, operating leverage 660 basis points. They win from net interest income, but they also win from fees, and that's what we've all been talking about. and fees. Investment banking fees were up 50% last quarter for Bank of America alone. And M&A is on track to do $4 trillion this year. So far year to date, 2.8 trillion, up 44% year-over-year. That's amazing for all of the banks. >> Let's see the trajectory and the duration of this momentum rotation. The money center banks are down today. Goldman Sachs >> because JPM and Goldman are within the the momentum. >> Yes, absolutely they are. JP Morgan is in Jot T. Goldman Sachs I own personally. They are clearly financial momentum stocks. You're seeing the rotation. Money center bank. We're going out of those today. We're going where there's actually been some relative underperformance last few months, which is the insurance companies. First thing that always comes to mind for me on a day like today in the market is I want to own the exchanges. I want to look at your CME. I want to look at your ICE. I want to look at your NASDAQ. This is the type of day that's very good for the >> You're talking like an extremely tactical move. >> Look, you don't you don't you don't have any more information on the market, Scott, than really the last 24 hours of price action. That's where you've seen the paradigm shift in the way that the macro funds are accepting risk in the way that the algorithms algorithms rather are allocating. I think the good thing about what we're seeing is that it's a basket rotation and not just a flush completely to the exit door. Let's see where it goes from here. It's 24 hours. Yeah. Um Jonathan Kinsky writes today that financials look vulnerable, that strength often beget strength, but with financials at the top end of a nearly decadel long trend channel. Again, he's a technician. And combined with all the other warning signs, it's not not the spot to chase. And in fact, looks like a timely area to reduce risk. What do you think about that? Is it a timely area to reduce risk after again, we'll remind you again, 11 straight weeks up, longest ever for this group? >> So, I don't think so. I mean the way I played it in in in our portfolio is obviously I'm in the investment banks and Goldman Sachs is the primary name that we hold. Um to Steph's point I mean investment banking 50% right for Bank of America 55% for Goldman Sachs right M&A capital markets activity trading all of those are distinct positives that I don't that are continuing to accelerate not decelerating. So the way we play it I continue to like where we are. I I see the run that has happened, but I think it's more of the breath story that I think can continue to give legs to this market. >> Private equity is where I agree with him. Private equity has had a nice recovery rally >> because software has software. >> Exactly. I I'll take the other side of that rally. I'll agree with Jonathan that if you're looking at financials and you want to say, "Okay, enough is enough." I think it's in private equity. I know we asked like you know at the very top of the program are are backing up yields rising rates a problem for the market or at some point will they be it's not showing up in surveys from fund managers. I cited the BFA one earlier as part of theirs today. They just had the third most bullish survey ever. So actually since 22 I'm sorry the third most bullish survey of investor sentiment since 22. All right. So a number of years. But you get my point. Cash levels are down to a low 3.5%. Global equity allocation surges to its highest level since November of 21. You know what the targets are doing on the street. Bin Yardi goes to 8,400 this week. You've got, including him, one, two three four five six seven like at least eight or nine targets that are with a floor of 8,000. There was a note yesterday that, you know, you could do 9,000 in the next 12 months. So, people are pretty bullish despite whatever question marks you have about yields, growth, and whatever else, >> right? Because if you go back to earnings, which in the short term are a horrible indicator of like a one-year return, long-term they're a very good indicator. But earnings, take out the anthropic gains, take out the SpaceX gains of the hype of Googles, etc. Earnings are still incredibly strong across the market, not just with 10 names. And so I think as long as earnings growth, profit margins or operating margins are going higher. And so when you just like take a step back, the economy is doing well. Also, I'll say less from the consumer, more from all of the data center spending, which is just massive. And so I think you just have to anchor on those key fundamentals and not get too whipped up about where rates are the past week. Let them settle out because as long as those earnings fundamentals are there, then you have that backdrop where the market will continue to climb today's wall of worry of of yields yields creeping up. >> All right, let's uh squeeze a break in. We're going to do calls of the day. Uh we've got committee stocks on the move. We will definitely touch this uh landmark meta trial that's taking place in California. What some are calling the most consequential case yet over child safety issues on that company's platforms. The damages if the states that are suing win, you won't believe the number. Tell you next. All right. Meta has been down uh today as this trial gets underway in California. Some, as I said, calling it the most consequential one yet over child safety issues on that company's platform. 29 states are seeking damages which could hit could a whopping 1.4 trillion. So, as you know, they already lost two pivotal cases this year. Those were viewed largely as test cases, but there's going to be a lot of attention on this landmark case. Nobody owns it currently here. Steph, though, I come to you. you sold it recently. Uh just yet another thing for people who own this name to be concerned about. >> Yeah, I mean this is you're right. One more thing. I mean I sold it because of fundamentals. I sold it because they're spending like drunken sailor and I just don't know when they're ever going to see operating profits. I mean I really don't like the leverage, not the profits. >> And this has issues potentially with the algorithm and the damages and all that. Whether you believe it's going to turn out in the, you know, the worst case scenario or even close, it's a it is an overhang. >> It's definitely an overhang and I I I think it's not going to go away anytime soon. And so you have this overhang. You have them spending crazy. You don't get the the margin growth. At at the same time, it's not expensive. I mean, it's a 16 times forward estimate, but I think for a reason. And so I suspect they're going to settle on this and we'll find out in months from now, maybe even years. Who even knows, right? So I don't know. Just for me, I think that there were other places I wanted to put my money. I actually put the money back into Amazon. >> I wanted to come to you on SpaceX also uh because you have the, you know, the next lockup expiration this week on Thursday as many as 319 million shares >> or 7% of the total amount. Uh >> how you thinking about that? Because you've been adding to that name >> and I'll continue to add to it. Even with these lockups and these stairst step lockups, you're undeterred by that >> because I'm because I'm taking a very long-term view on it and I'm averaging down in my cost basis. Unfortunately, the stock's down 28% from its highs, Scott. So, I mean, I will continue to add. It's hel it's actually rallied nicely in the last uh week or so. >> It has it's back above. Remember, it got below the 135 >> the IPO price the IPO price and now it's back. >> I really thought the quarter was great. We talked about this like when I added to it last week. I mean you total revenue of 91% and I do up 191% and you know they're doubling their subscriber base. Um and you know the space business they have such a huge advantage on cost and first mover advantage. I think there's a lot of ways to win and um and of course the the renting of AI that's really and the compute is really something very powerful. >> It is a long game. You're not you're not buying this for this past quarter, the next quarter, or the one or the one or the one or the one after that >> like when I retire. [laughter] >> Yeah. >> But look, given what you what you said about Meta and the the spending, >> SpaceX is a hyperscaler. >> Yes. Okay. No question. >> There's no question about that. >> No question. >> They're going to be spending and you're going to be okay with that. >> And they increased spending in in their AI division by 65% but they said the payback period was would be in one year. And so that at least I'm willing to hang my hat on in terms of believing what they're going to say. They're going to continue to spend. They may even have to do another secondary for all I know. I just think this management team has it. There's many ways to win. And like I said, call me when I'm 65. >> All right. Software uh calls today. I wanted to hit a few. Snowflake goes to 408 from 325. Outperform at Citizens. I I'll give you this one. Steph owns it too, but let's hear from you. >> Yeah. So, I mean, Snowflake's been phenomenal. It's up uh 47% so far year to date. EPS revenue e well revenue was up 33% EPS growth up 68%. I like the deal that they just did with AWS. I think the consumption model is interesting because it can produce inconsistent results but I continue to like this data warehouse [snorts] storage game. I I like this name in the software space. >> Okay, then I'll go to Steph cuz you and Steph both own Service Now. What do you think about this one as the target goes to 150 overweight at Capital One >> and it's had a nice rally off the lows but it's still down 22%. I still can't get my arms around this company growing 24% subscriptions. They're growing revenues of 20%. RPOs are growing 20%. The stocks trading 25 times. I mean, it's really pretty attractive here. Great management team. 50% of their business is consumption based now, which is also very important and I think that's only going to increase and and and that will help over time to earnings and multiple. >> Uh cyber's been great. Everybody knows that. Uh, crowd strike Joe 250 from 230 by benchmark. What do you >> Yeah, le let's get a little bit more of a correction here in front of earnings. I think that would be healthy. I would like that. Crowd Strike, I believe, reports the middle of next week. Palo Alto Steph, I think, is the week that follows. They need to They're They're going in with really high expectations this earnings report. See a little bit of an adjustment in price maybe for Crowd Strike below 200 back towards that 190 area. >> Let's do Bren on Uber. uh outperform 112 Mazuo. You own that name still, right? >> I do. I've been in and out of this name. I think I've traded it pretty decently. You've been able to buy this name in the low high 60s, low7s, and then right now we're at resistance. If it can break above this 76,77, I think the stock can just easily drift into the mid 80s where I'll probably sell and do this again. But I think at this point the fundamentals are there, but it needs to get above this 767 or at risk going back down into that low 70 price range. >> Our target's having its best year since 2019. It's up 54%. Back the chart out, though. Let's do let's do a 5-year. How about that? Um because it tells a different story. There it is. Steph, you own it. >> Yeah. So, I'm trying to figure out what to make of this rebound. In many ways, there was only one way to go. Is this sustainable or is this everything about it was just going to rebound at some point? >> No. >> Do the fundamentals match the chart year to date? I mean, I think you have a new CEO who's doing really well ter in terms of operations and changing the company and changing the product mix um and just doing a really good job in terms of supply chains and cost controls and spending to grow. So, so the expectations are high, but to your point, you go back 5 years, I mean, this thing was the 266 back in 2021, so it has a long way to go, but I do think they are making progress. And I think the most important number to me is going to be the operating margin number because it's at 4.5%. It's at a trough. They got to 8% plus um back in 2022. Uh and so I think if you can start to gradually see operating margins increase, I think the sales are going to be there because they're getting the traffic in the door because of all these changes that they're making. >> Remind me of did you sell half this position or some of it within the last year? >> Oh yeah, I did. Yeah, absolutely. I sold it and then I bought it back once I once I saw what he was doing. And then >> you sold the whole thing and bought it back or just some. >> I saw half of it and then I bought more um because he just did he's doing a really good job. Now tomorrow the whisper numbers for comps are 3%. That's going to be down from 5.6% last quarter. The the whisper number for earnings 240 with a plus sign and then a guide of $9 this year 10 next year. So there's a lot of high expectations and if they fall short on any of these things would not be surprised to see it pulled back. But I would probably be a buyer if it pulled back a lot because I still think there's more room to go longer term. >> Joe, who's in who's in Walmart who reports later this week. >> Yes. Uh TJX, Russ as well. When when we first incepted the ETF in 2020, Target was a momentum stock that we owned. Um it it now could be characterized based on price as a momentum stock. Fundamentally, I think you need to see a continued improvement Q1 to Q2 because a lot of people will point to Q1 and say it was the tax refunds and it was the calendar that they benefited from. They have to show that there's sustainability. >> Okay. So, they haven't hit the quality metric. >> They have not >> which would get it back into the ETF. >> Exactly. And I think one thing that's interesting about this is the analyst community. Only 34% of the analyst community has a buy rating and the actual average price on it is 145. So prices the analyst 12-month price target is below where the actual price is today. Only 34% of the analyst community like the stock from a sentiment perspective that's very interesting >> because we got burned for so many years. >> It's and the analysts generally with that type of formation continue to get burned. What about Estee tomorrow? >> So Estee beauty reimagined is um the concept that the C CEO put in place about a year ago and that's going to lead to better organic growth. I think you will see uh or good organic growth in the quarter tomorrow. More importantly, what do they say for fiscal 27 because this is their fourth quarter tomorrow. So I think they have to say 3 to 5% organic growth. I think they have to say 12 1/2 13% operating margins and that this program is leading to better growth and better dynamics at the company. So it's still down a lot year to date. So the expectations are much lower and I I feel pretty good at least on the long term. >> Okay, options action time. Oliver Renick joins us live from the SIBO Global Markets in Chicago. We're talking about Nvidia. >> That's right, Scott. Earnings next week for the stock I think are most interesting when viewed in context of the company's relationship to its sector. Nvidia's underperformed the SMH by 35 percentage points this year, but its volatility has also been lower, and at this point, some stability in the sector would be welcome. Options pricing suggests a roughly 5% move after earnings, but the implied move has a consistent history of overpricing the actual swing. Nvidia's moved just 2 and a half% on average after its past four reports. More encouraging for bulls is that options flows right now lean towards calls. About 2/3 of options premium today was tied to calls and more than twice as much money was spent buying calls than puts. That is notably more optimistic than what we see in the sector ETF where put buying dominates the tape today. Two to one buy volume versus calls, including the second day in a row of some big outright speculative put buying. Scott, >> interesting. All right, Bob, we got earnings in I guess a little more than a week. Oliver, thanks. Oliver Renick, how you feeling about these earnings coming up? I mean, the stocks had a nice run to say the least. It's certainly woken up. um and what that means perhaps for where the bar is going into the number now. >> Yeah, it's up 20% in the last month. So, and I just think that massive investment they've made into the alt managers is going to change the dynamics in terms of investing into the space. So, I really like Nvidia here and and on a going basis. Yeah, Brenn quick. >> Yeah, I mean I still think 228 is going to be tough to get through. The stock should be higher, but the market's saying it should not be. >> Yeah. Well, it's going to be one heck of a week next week. We we can't wait for that obviously. We'll take a quick break. We'll come back and we'll do finals. And what is your final trade today? >> INFL. I like this for offense and defense. It owns the exchanges with Joe likes metals and low capex energy names. >> Oh yeah. Okay. Uh Elilano Animal Health. >> Yeah. I don't own this, but the stock is down 12% from its highs. You're seeing insider buying. Very strong fundamentals with market share gains. Very interesting. >> You used to own Zoetas, right? >> I own both of them. >> And now you don't own this one anymore. No, not yet. >> Okay. Okay. Teaser coming. [laughter] >> All right. He'll give us the details. We know where that's going. Eli Liy. >> Yes, sir. Eli Lily about to make a new alltime high. That's what I see in front of it. >> All right. Netflix. >> Netflix ad revenue is going to double again in 2026. >> Nice mover today. Thanks everybody. I'll see you on the bell. The exchange. >> Hey everybody. Welcome to BlueCloud Trading. I'm George. We just saw some clips from yesterday's episode of Power Lunch. Tom Lee was on. And then we've got today's episode of the halftime report. It's Tuesday, August 18th. It's 4:09 p.m. And the markets were all down today. Not good. As you can see here, the S&P 500 was down 69%. Basically gapped down and stayed stable, but uh you know, it had a pretty big drop from the prior days closing price. NASDAQ did the same thing. Down 1.33%. It was down the most. And the Dow Jones was down.22. Russell 2000 was down 1.27%. Um what is the cause of that? Well, US stocks closed lowers global bond selloff lifted treasury yields to multi-year highs and semiconductor weakness dragged tech while oil stayed elevated on the Iran tensions. So yeah, let's take a look at the heat map. Here we've got the heat map and you can see the semiconductor stocks were all in the red today and there was big drops actually like Micron for example was down 7.02 Broadcom was down 3.17 AMD down 4.27 Intel down 6.58%. Marll 7.82% down not good semiconductor equipment stocks were also down quite a bit. Look at STX here ticker symbol 9.16 and SNDK was down 9.01. So meta was down 4.45. Uh in the industrials there were you know the aerospace and defense stocks did well but specialty industrials did not do so well. Neither did the farm um stocks like Caterpillar and um farm and heavy machinery uh construction machinery stocks. Uh looking at the energy stocks, you can see here that yeah, they did all they all did pretty well. The majority of them except for the oil and gas, equipment and services stocks, uh healthcare stocks did well. The um real estate stocks were mixed but mostly down. Okay. And then if we look at the groups segment here, we can see that uh healthc care was up 1.41%. Uh energy followed that up 1.11. Consumer defensive up.95 today. Everything else was down with technology down the most as you can see right there down 2.53% for the entire technology sector for the one week performance energy real estate healthcare consumer defensives those are the top four consumer cyclical basic materials and communication services are the down the most okay um all right so let's get into the stocks now what I like to do as you all know is take a look at the stocks that they discussed on the shows I analyze those stocks here using the Ichimoku indicator and we're going to go through these very quickly. We're not going to spend too much time on each one. Um there's about 31 stocks and ETFs that they discussed. I've highlighted with a blue flag here the top um ones based on the technicals. All right, so I'll explain why those got the blue flags in a second and then I'll also take a look at the indices. In fact, what I'm going to do is start off with the index ETFs. Let's start off with the SPY which was down 68% today. So, what we're looking for essentially is for price to be above these two moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. We also want that lagging line, the Chico span to be above price. Very simple. It looks a little complicated because there are so many lines, but there's just five lines. The synopus span A, the sync span B, the Tenken, the 9 period, the Keeunen, the 26 period, the Chico span, the lagging line. Okay, which is the current price projected 26 periods ago. We want that white line, like I said, to be above the candle and we want the green line above the red line. We want the light blue colored line above the purple. Those are the rules of Ichimoku. When something falters, as it did here yesterday with the spy. So, in yesterday's video, I mentioned guys, uh, you know, price for the first time. Now, um, actually closed under the 9 period. That can tend to lead to a pullback. It can be short-lived. it can be more extended. If you if we look at the overall um strength of this trend, it's still very strong. The SPY is still very bullish here. Um but it looks like we're, you know, at least for the beginning of this week, we're not starting off on a good note. Um here's a daily chart. Like I said, it's pulled back a little bit, down 68%. How about the Q's? The QQQ ETF. Well, that also gap. So yesterday, we had a reversal type candle. it pulled back and actually gapped down this morning and and got under the the nine period. I will say this, it does look pretty bullish as far as holding up above the top of the cloud. That's generally a place that price will find some support and we do have a future bullish cloud here. So, that's good. Um, but the lagging line is starting to enter into the candle. So, that that's the cues down 1.69%. Here's the weekly chart. All right, we've got a bearish engulfing pattern that's slight slow slowly starting to form. We won't know what this candle looks like until Friday, though. All right, so we still have a few days left. Let's take a look at the Dow DI AF on the weekly. It's still, you know, two weeks now. It's been pulling back a little bit. Here's a daily chart. You can see that on Thursday of last week, August 13th, we closed under the 9 period, you know, so we got ourselves a little bit of a heads up that, hey, maybe some of these mega cap stocks are going to pull back. and they did uh now they're getting closer and closer to a support level, the 26th period. We'll see what happens there. Here's gold. Gold was um you know recently, let me throw some lines on there so you can see what I'm talking about. We had this little box, you know, this box formation. Uh price was consolidating. It broke above and closed above here back on um the beginning of this uh month, August 5th. It's moved up right now. it is uh creating a new little mini box uh or a base as I like to call it. You can see how price has been confined within the region of this box. So what we need is to see a little bit more bullishness. We're not we don't see that yet. Now we have resistance here. The 200 day moving average is the dotted yellow line. So that's and it reentered the cloud. So that's not a good sign. But we're still holding up above the tenins and the keensen. So we'll see what materializes there on the daily. Here's a weekly chart. Okay. inside the cloud. Here's a Russell 2000. It's pulled back a little bit under the 30272 level. Let's look at the daily chart. Yeah, it closed under the 9 period also down 1.27%. So, it's probably going to pull back a little bit more. Uh FEZ, all this is is you you know, we're talking about probabilities now, right? Um basically, the bulls were and the bears were battling out. That's what this signifies here when we looking at a consolidation area. All right, neither the bel bulls nor bears are in control. Now we can see that the bears are currently in control. Will that be longlasting or not? One thing to note is down here of the directional movement index the ADX9 has dropped a bit. The momentum is now dropping in this the green line the positive DI9 that's also dropping. The red line is moving up. That's not good. And if we get a crossover here, that's going to be even more negative because it tends to lead to at least a short-term pullback. All right, so let's look at the next one. SLV, that's the silver stock. I'm sorry, the silver ETF SLV. Um, so where is it now? It's inside the cloud on the daily chart. It's uh holding still under this 6037 level. You can see that um it's based on this prior candle right here going all the way back to March 26 of 2026. So we came up to that level and then pulled back. All right, we'll see what happens. Um Bitcoin IBIT is still inside the cloud also consolidating. Nothing to do there. ETH is still consolidating. Nothing to do here. There's just no momentum here in these name in these specific areas. All right, VIX uh popped a little bit 4.28% 28% on and what that means is that the fear index the volatility index is now starting to to to move up. Uh it it reached a low of about 14 what was that low there on that candle? 14.18 and now it's up to 15.84. It's not it's still relatively low numbers. All right, but um it's never a good sign to see that increasing. Now we're going to get into the stocks, guys. So, we have an overall view of the markets and what that's looking like. We don't have any blue flags here today, but we do have some blue flags in specific stocks here. And what I'll show you what that means. BAC. Oh, I forgot to take that one off. It is a stock that I'm still holding on to. Uh, all right. I'll just show it to you. Um, weekly chart. As you can see here, price is above the 5755 level. It broke above that level. Um, I added that back on July 6. It's been moving up here for multiple weeks now and you can see the ADX is still strong on the weekly chart. Here's the daily chart. Okay, still holding up today above the tenkinson up 58%. And the ADX is still looking strong too. So I like Bank of America. Uh and so it got a blue flag because it met the criteria that we're looking for on both the weekly and the daily chart. It gets the blue flag. Okay. Eli Liy is another one that got the blue flag. And why? Because price is above the 9 period, the 26. It's above the cloud. The chu span here is above price like I mentioned earlier on the daily chart. And then on the weekly chart, same thing. Okay, so I like the fact that it was up and it was also up 3.68% today. Uh CHW is the weekly chart for Charles Schwab. You can see that's still strong, up 1.02. Here's a daily chart. I talked about this yesterday, too. I said this is this had a blue flag yesterday as well. snowflake. Um, now this one here dropped 1.45% today. It's now testing that tenken. Will it stay above it tomorrow? That's the question. So, it's in the technology sector which hasn't been really super strong. Uh, although yesterday, you know, like yesterday was starting to show um, you know, a little bit more strength, but um, it just was it's almost like the rug was pulled out from the technology sector as I'll show you guys in a few moments when we look at um, the XLK for example. So, uh, but Snowflake is still reach, you know, holding that blue flag because it looks holding above the 9 period, above the 26. It's above the weekly chart as well, but we've got some reversal candles. I wouldn't be adding positions right here based on what I'm seeing because of the candles. All right, ST, State Street Corporation, weekly chart looks bullish, very bullish, and so does the daily chart. It was down 0.55% today, though. So that's State Street Corporation. It's in the financial services sector. Target still looking pretty solid here. If you look at the weekly chart, it's been uh you know, it emerged above the cloud back here on uh April 17th of 2026. And since then, it's moved up 20.86%. From the lows down here, it's moved up about 81.9%. So Target is uh showing some strength here on the weekly. It's showing some strength on the daily still. I like Target. The rest of these guys, there's something off technically. And so they're not they're not getting a blue flag today, but they might tomorrow. You never know. Amazon, you never know, right? This world is so wild and crazy. You never know what's going to happen. Uh daily chart, daily chart, it's been pulling back. It's hitting the 26th period right now. The the Keeun, we get the future cloud that's still bullish uh on the daily chart. Will it bounce? Will we get a bullish day tomorrow? I don't know. Weekly chart. same thing. Okay, so it's coming close to support level. We need to see what happens. We need to get some confirmation from a from a candlestick, Japanese candlestick. And these are really important. They help to determine what's going on on a either weekby-eek basis or day-by-day basis. Obviously, I talked about a little bit yesterday. So, if you want to learn a little bit about candlesticks, uh check out my video yesterday. I did go over candlesticks a little bit. All right. Capital One Financial doesn't get a blue flag. Why? It's inside the cloud and the cloud is bearish here on the weekly. Okay. On the daily chart, it pulled back under the teninsson today and yesterday. Crowd strike is also onto the 9 period. No on that one right now on the weekly chart. It's still holding up nicely though. Okay. It's still under that 21750 level. Notice how it found resistance at that level. That weekly level, guys, um is based on this candle right here. Whoops. Let me draw it. Sorry. It's uh July 17th of 2026 right here and still staying under uh DHI Dr. Horton residential st stocks did not do well today. They were all down because of the news and the uh information that we received. Uh in fact, let me go back to that so we can just to show you guys what I'm talking about. If we go to the calendar here, the economic calendar and I scroll down here, Tuesday, right? So, um, let me zoom out a little bit. There we go. Okay. Um, you'll notice that the numbers were negative here. And these were really important, right? So, it was expected to be, um, the prior was 1.42. It was expected to be 1.35, which is still lower than the prior, right? Uh, and then it was ended up being 1.29. Uh over here though, the building permits. Okay, that was positive and those were the two most impactful um things today. [snorts] Um all right, so let's go back again to the charts. I just want to show that to you guys real quick. DR AM on the weekly chart is under the tenkinson. On the daily chart, it's under the cloud. All right. Uh no on that. E no on Estee Lauder at this time. You can see it's uh pulled back. It's finding support at least at the cloud. we might get a bounce, but on the daily chart, it's uh currently still under that 200. If you look at the weekly chart, we're still under the cloud. And so, it just makes sense to hold off on this one. Let's see. EN Elano Animal Health Incorporated, uh, which is a stock that I've traded in the past, uh, is currently above the cloud, but it's under the tankin right now on the weekly. If you look at the daily chart, it's inside the cloud. It's not uh the right time to be in that one. Google is still under the cloud on the daily chart. No on Google. INFL, which is inflation beneficiaries ETF, is above the moving averages. And the cloud is looking bullish, too. But that's just on the daily chart, the weekly chart. We've got the faster moving average here. the the tenkinson the nine period the midpoint of the last nine periods is that green line it's under the 26 period the midpoint to the last 26 periods everything else looks good price is above both of those moving averages but we had this negative crossover so it does not get a blue flag basically ITB is the uh iShares Dow Jones US home construction index fund and you can see here yeah it was down 1.3 33% is it's under the cloud on the weekly. I'd skip that one. KBH is under the cloud as well. KB Home not looking good. Down 2.67. Meta is under the cloud as well on the weekly chart. We're looking at weekly charts now. Look at this. I'd stay out of that obviously. Uh and it's been uh negative um going back all the way to you know this is the probably the last place where it made sense to hold this position. And that was back on September 26th, 2025 when the candle uh actually it was even before that. It was I'm sorry uh September 19th. Now, [cough and clears throat] of course, you know, price pulls back. Sometimes it recovers, but you don't you certainly don't want to be adding new positions. I guess that's what I'm trying to say here. Don't add new positions when price is under these moving averages, folks. Even like this one here, you can see that price did break above, but the tenken was under the keeen. The faster moving average was under the slower one. So, you wouldn't want to add it there. Drop some more. Came back up. Did it break above the cloud? It did not. It dropped some more. Found resistance again here. Two more weeks at the cloud. This indicator, Ichimoku, is being used by a lot of financial institutions. It's been around published in the late 1960s. Okay. And we've it's a it's an indicator that I use because it's a rules-based indicator and you can certainly make rules um based on the moving averages here. It helps to keep you, you know, Ichimoku stands for in a at a glance. Okay. At a glance, we can quickly assess the strength or weakness of a stock or ETF. If price is under the cloud, just skip it all together. If it's above, take a closer look at it. Make sure the moving averages are in the correct order. So, that's the best way to do it. Start off with the weekly chart, then move to the daily. All right, Microsoft. Let's look at Microsoft. Well, we still have a bearish cloud here. Single span A is under single span B, and it's been declining these last few weeks. I I'd skip Microsoft. Here's the daily chart pulling back. Um, MTUM, there it is on the daily chart inside the cloud. On the weekly chart, it's getting onto the tenken again. That's not good. Netflix is under the cloud. Obviously, no on that one. It seems to have found a little bit of support around above the 200 here on the weekly chart. Okay. And it has moved from these lows here about 19.5%. So, if you look at a daily chart, it looks more and more bullish, but it certainly hasn't breaken above and closed above this prior high. Okay. 78.47 or so, or 7844, sorry. Uh let's go to the next one. Service Now, that one's under the 200. It's under the nine period. No, on that one on the daily, Nvidia's uh dropped under the 9 period today. Yesterday we had a reversal candle. See that little wick in the small body. Doesn't mean it's always going to pull back, but it did. And uh that's the daily chart. Here's the weekly chart. Still holding up above this trend line. PHM is PY Homes Inc. residential construction and that's inside the cloud. So no on that as well. If if price is inside the cloud, you don't want to be adding positions either. SMH is under the 9 period. It's basically under this trend line on the weekly. If you look at the daily chart, we had this false breakout here on the daily above it. But I think you know if we what we need to do is pay attention more to the weekly uh chart when it comes to this trend line. Can it can it break above on Friday above this trend line? If so, then we've got something. Uh SPCX is Space Exploration Technology SpaceX on the weekly chart these last three weeks has been moving up as you can see from these bullish candles. It's not a lot of data here yet because it's a newly introduced stock to the market as far as being publicly traded. So that's why the Ichimoku cloud hasn't even started forming here yet. When you look at the daily chart, there's more information. So, the cloud is starting to form. Still under the cloud on the daily. If you look at the 4 hour, there's more information. And you can see that we've made a a move up now. We're above the cloud on the 4hour time frame for SpaceX. It's turned bullish. We had a double bottom type pattern right here on the 4hour chart. And uh you know, this is more of a day tradable type stock than more than anything else. And if you look at the 30 minute, you know, you can see how it's been moving up, but it was initially in a decline for quite a while. And just around August, um, you know, around this point right here around August 6th, it started taking off. To Brothers, Inc. is still declining here in the 30 minute. Here's a daily chart under the cloud. So, no on that. Uber is under the 200 on the daily. Let's look at the weekly chart under the cloud. So, no on Uber. Walmart is inside the cloud. No on Walmart right now, even though it was up today. XHB is inside the cloud, too. Was down 2.07%. Home builders, no on XHB. XLF financials still looks good on the weekly chart. Okay. ADX is still strong. What about daily though? Well, two days now. We're under the 9 period there. It's more bullish than bearish though. I will say that because what we have here is a pattern. It's called a bullish harami. When you have a large red candle followed by a small bullish candle just like that that's within the body of the prior candle. So bullish harami. Look that one up if you'd like. H A R A M I uh on Google and you can see some examples of that. But it's basically looking pretty good overall. Well, I mean, I think uh financials have a higher probability of moving up. It was up 045% today, for example. If you guys like this software that I'm using here, it's called TC2000 and there is a link for a $25 coupon for this software. So, you can try it out for 30 days for free using that link. Uh let me show you how you can access it. Okay, let's click on this. Boom. Here we are. Okay, what you want to do, folks, is uh come to my YouTube channel, BlueCloud Trading. From here, click on 10 more links right there. Click on that. You'll see a little information about my channel. Scroll down a little and there are about 10 links or so here. So, there is a $25 coupon for the TC2000 software. You click on that link and enter your email here and then you can download it for Windows. Um, and then like I said, uh, you will receive a $25 coupon towards your service courtesy of BlueCloud Trading as long as you haven't used it in the last 12 months. And if you go to pricing there, the software plans monthly. Whoops, there we go. So, you can see the basic is $24.99. So, that will cover that basic. I would recommend the premium. It has a lot more features as you can see here, including the ability to do real-time scanning and sorting. Morning pre-buzz, that's getting a stock a start on stocks with unusual pre-market trading activity before the regular session opens. That's a nice one. Um, chart drawing tools. All right. Easy scan wizard. Select indicators from the library or charts. Then the wizard will step you through building a condition. Um you can do a whole bunch of things and you can also track um stocks. You can create alerts on a stock. You can do that under the premium. You can't do it under basic. So I'll show you what I mean by that. So let's say that I want to create an alert on XLF when price gets above the high say of that candle. So the high there is 5798. So I'll make sure it's exactly 57.98. Boom. Okay. Maybe I'll color this yellow so I can, you know, I know it's not based on the daily chart necessarily, but 57.98. So now all you do is right click on that and see that. Boom. Set alert. It will tell you, okay, when price crosses this line, okay, it will get triggered and you'll get a text message. You can get a text message, an email, or a popup on your screen. You get to choose those settings. Okay, you can edit those notification settings here. Um, and you can monitor this for, you know, maybe one day up to two years. So, uh, I would, you know, in a situation like this, I'd probably put it for one week maybe and hit that okay button. You can even put a description about, you know, price breaking above the high of the um, spinning top and then hit okay. Boom. Alert created. Now, there's also an alert console at the top that you can't see here, but um there is an alert console at the very top of the screen that you can where you can monitor all your alerts that are taking place if they get triggered. For example, each morning and again, you can get those notifications on your texts or emails. And then you can also trade right off of these charts, guys. You can let's say I wanted to buy this stock here. I can click the buy button. You see that I can do a market order. They do options off here. I don't trade options, but they do have those options for you. They have the option for you to trade options basic. Uh and then if I want to buy based on the buy XLF at the trend line. Now, this is a cool thing. This is this is one of my favorites. You click on that and then what you do is see I just hover here and if I press boom. Do you see that? It created this little trigger here right right on the screen and 57.98. I just want to make sure it's at 57.98. So a buy stop at 57.98. From here quantity. All right. You can select how many how many shares you want. For how long? Good till can day or good till cancelled. Um there's the there's a little popup here that you can use as well. The popup ticket and then hit the buy XLF. So, there's a lot of you can play around with that. You can also there's also a paper trading account that you can set up as well if you'd like to do that um before you actually, you know, have a um before you set up a brokerage account. But I would recommend using these folks for your brokerage as well. You know, you go to again going back to this here, you can see that uh why trade with TC2000 because they utilize interactive brokers for their processing of all trades. They're basically partnered with Interactive Brokers, a very um reputable brokerage firm. Okay? And so you can do that through by becoming by basically checking out the brokerage part. All right? And opening an account. All right, guys. That's going to do it. Thanks for watching. I appreciate all of you. Oh, just one more final thing. One more final thing before I go. Uh, if you haven't become a member and you want to get access to these exclusive member onlyly videos, the ones that I post each weekend like the ones that you see right here, you can either click on it and then it will pop up the the join button or you can click the join button right here next to the subscribe button. Click on that and then select BlueCloud Trader. Make sure you select BlueCloud Trader so you get access to these videos. All right, and hit join. It's $24.99 a month for that. If you want to get daily trade updates, BlueCloud Legend, hit join. You will also get basically not only the day the uh trade updates that I for my portfolio, but also you can request up to three stocks or ETFs be analyzed on an upcoming video. You will also exclusive member only strategy videos, the ones that I like this one. And um what else? There's also a few like yeah day trading videos there. And uh oh, in each of each day where I post when I post the um my daily post, I also include my scan results from my proprietary scanner that I built within TC2000. All right, I share those with members, legend level members. So consider that. And then of course I usually post them under posts. All right, have a good one guys. I will catch you The ichimokus [music] guiding light. Blue cloud traing through the night. [music and singing] >> [music]