Key retail earnings reporting this week: The committee's retail strategy

>> TARGET'S HAVING ITS BEST YEAR SINCE 2019. IT'S UP 54%. BACK THE CHART OUT THOUGH. LET'S DO LET'S DO A FIVE YEAR. HOW ABOUT THAT. BECAUSE IT TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY. THERE IT IS STEPH. YOU OWN IT. YEAH. SO I'M TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS REBOUND. IN MANY WAYS THERE WAS ONLY ONE WAY TO GO. IS THIS SUSTAINABLE OR IS THIS EVERYTHING ABOUT IT WAS JUST GOING TO REBOUND AT SOME POINT. DID THE FUNDAMENTALS MATCH THE CHART YEAR TO DATE? >> I MEAN, I THINK YOU HAVE A NEW CEO WHO'S DOING REALLY WELL IN TERMS OF OPERATIONS AND CHANGING THE COMPANY AND CHANGING THE PRODUCT MIX AND JUST DOING A REALLY GOOD JOB IN TERMS OF SUPPLY CHAINS AND COST CONTROLS AND SPENDING TO GROW. SO SO THE EXPECTATIONS ARE HIGH, BUT TO YOUR POINT, YOU GO BACK FIVE YEARS. I MEAN, THIS THING WAS A 266 BACK IN 2021. SO IT HAS A LONG WAY TO GO. BUT I DO THINK THEY ARE MAKING PROGRESS. AND I THINK THE MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER TO ME IS GOING TO BE THE OPERATING MARGIN NUMBER, BECAUSE IT'S AT 4.5%, IT'S AT A TROUGH. THEY GOT TO 8% PLUS BACK IN 2022. AND SO I THINK IF YOU CAN START TO GRADUALLY SEE OPERATING MARGINS INCREASE, I THINK THE SALES ARE GOING TO BE THERE BECAUSE THEY'RE GETTING THE TRAFFIC IN THE DOOR BECAUSE OF ALL THESE CHANGES THAT THEY'RE MAKING. >> REMIND ME OF, DID YOU SELL HALF THIS POSITION OR SOME OF IT WITHIN THE LAST YEAR? >> OH YEAH, I DID, I DID, YEAH, ABSOLUTELY. I SOLD IT AND THEN I BOUGHT IT BACK ONCE I, ONCE I SAW WHAT HE WAS DOING AND. >> YOU SOLD THE WHOLE THING AND BOUGHT IT BACK OR JUST SOME. >> I SAW HALF OF IT AND THEN I BOUGHT MORE BECAUSE HE JUST DID. HE'S DOING A REALLY GOOD JOB NOW. TOMORROW THE WHISPER NUMBERS FOR COMPS ARE 3%. THAT'S GOING TO BE DOWN FROM 5.6% LAST QUARTER. THE WHISPER NUMBER FOR EARNINGS 240 WITH A PLUS SIGN AND THEN A GUIDE OF $9 THIS YEAR, TEN NEXT YEAR. SO THERE'S A LOT OF HIGH EXPECTATIONS. AND IF THEY FALL SHORT ON ANY OF THESE THINGS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT PULL BACK. BUT I WOULD PROBABLY BE A BUYER IF IT PULLED BACK A LOT BECAUSE I STILL THINK THERE'S MORE ROOM TO GO LONGER TERM. >> JOE, WHO'S WHO'S IN WALMART, WHO REPORTS LATER THIS WEEK. >> YES. TJX. ROSS STORES AS WELL. WHEN WHEN WE FIRST INCEPTED THE ETF IN 2020, TARGET WAS A MOMENTUM STOCK THAT WE OWNED. IT NOW CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BASED ON PRICE AS A MOMENTUM STOCK. FUNDAMENTALLY, I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO NEED TO SEE A CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT Q1 TO Q2, BECAUSE A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL POINT TO Q1 AND SAY IT WAS THE TAX REFUNDS, AND IT WAS THE CALENDAR THAT THEY BENEFITED FROM. THEY HAVE TO SHOW THAT THEIR SUSTAINABILITY. >> OKAY. SO THEY HAVEN'T HIT THE QUALITY METRIC. >> THEY HAVE. >> NOT, WHICH WOULD GET IT BACK INTO THE ETF. >> EXACTLY. AND I THINK ONE THING THAT'S INTERESTING ABOUT THIS IS THE ANALYST COMMUNITY. ONLY 34% OF THE ANALYST COMMUNITY HAS A BUY RATING. AND THE ACTUAL AVERAGE PRICE ON IT IS 145. SO PRICES THE ANALYST 12 MONTH PRICE TARGET IS BELOW WHERE THE ACTUAL PRICE IS TODAY. ONLY 34% OF THE ANALYST COMMUNITY LIKE THE STOCK. FROM A SENTIMENT PERSPECTIVE, THAT'S VERY INTERESTING. >> BECAUSE WE GOT BURNED FOR SO MANY YEARS. >> AND THE ANALYST GENERALLY WITH THAT TYPE OF FORMATION CONTINUE TO GET BURNED. >> WHAT ABOUT ESTÉE TOMORROW? >> SO ESTÉE BEAUTY REIMAGINED IS THE CONCEPT THAT THE CEO PUT IN PLACE ABOUT A YEAR AGO. AND THAT'S GOING TO LEAD TO BETTER ORGANIC GROWTH. I THINK YOU WILL SEE GOOD ORGANIC GROWTH IN THE QUARTER TOMORROW. MORE IMPORTANTLY, WHAT DO THEY SAY FOR FISCAL 27 BECAUSE THIS IS THEIR FOURTH QUARTER TOMORROW. SO I THINK THEY HAVE TO SAY 3 TO 5% ORGANIC GROWTH. I THINK THEY HAVE TO SAY 12.5, 13% OPERATING MARGINS, AND THAT THIS PROGRAM IS LEADING TO