My Stock just EXPLODED‼️

The flapjacks are being flipped just perfectly. Wow, do we have some things to get into here today, folks. Stocks making some massive moves. We have several different stocks making huge moves. We're going to talk about at the beginning of this video, we're going to talk about what's going on with these stocks, why they're moving so big. We'll talk about where these stocks are headed from here, all that good stuff. Okay. From there, I want to go ahead and talk about how to position a portfolio properly for growth, uh, regardless of what type of market you're in. From there, we're going to go ahead and talk about a stock that exploded higher for me here today and how much more upside is out there for that particular stock. And since this is reaction channel, Jeremy Lefag's Jeremy Lefave makes money, we're going to go ahead and react to some videos here today. First one we'll react to is Tom Lee, his favorite stock picks. Then we're going to react to this one. Keep it on Tom Lee subject. Uh his views on where the market's head and I'll share my opinions and perspectives on the market, all that good stuff. And then Adam Peter Paca on his views on the market. and go ahead and share my opinions and perspectives on all that. By the way, I appreciate y'all for being here. One thing only I need from you, just smash that like button if you have not already done so. And for everybody that's already smashed, I appreciate you in the biggest way. Thank you for doing that. I hope you appreciate me uh recording these videos for you guys. And uh yeah, all that good stuff. And oh, by the way, make sure you subscribe to the channel cuz why would you not be subscribed to the channel? Okay. All righty, ladies and gentlemen. Listen. Do you see what I see? I see some big moves, baby. Estee Lauder. Say it louder for the people in the back. Almost hitting $100 a share here today. Last year, that stock was in the 40s. Now it's nearly 100. Uh up 16% here today. Up about almost $14 a share. Celsius Holdings up big. Uh Celsius back into the 30s. Look at that stock. 32 plus a share. Um you know that stock just off those lows, it hit what a week or two ago. That stock's already up probably 20 30% from those lows. Another 8% move here today. Celsius the wealthiest continues to roll. ELF climbing up on the highest shelf almost $100 a share. It's so flipping flapjack and close. ELF, look at that one. That think about this. ELF has doubled its stock price just in two and a half months. Two and a half months. ELF double its stock price. You want to know why we do individual stock picking? That's why, ladies and gentlemen, because you got to understand when when we're talking about you buy an index fund, right? You're trying to double your money over, we can call it about a seven, eight, maybe nine year span, right? Individual stocks, you get in the right position at the right time, you double your money in two and a half flipping flat jacket. That's why I love individual stocks, man. That payoff in there's risk. You could always get it wrong, but guess what? The market can also go down, right? The bottom line is you got to be right a lot more than you're wrong, especially with your big positions. And uh man, it's incredible, right? So, Elf on a Shelf, what a stock, right? What a stock. And that runs not over in regards to ELF. Celsius has a long way to run. That stock should be $100 plus a share over the next few years. And ELF, that stock, I've told you guys many times, I think that stock exits this year, worst case scenario, at 100, best case scenario at 140. And that's this year. Never mind the long-term opportunity in MEL, which that stock should be a several hundred dollar stock over the long term, right? So, um, yeah, ELF has incredible upside ahead. SAS stocks continue to run. Service Now up another 6% here today. You know, that's a stock that's moved, you know, 50% or so from the the lows it reached just a few months ago, you know, on a SAS company like that, right? Honest continues to roll that one back over $5 a share. Don't be surprised if that one continues to run between now and the end of the year. Uh, Salesforce continues to run, another 5% move there. Revolve, a nice upward move. Netflix is back over $80 a share. I told you guys that's the cleanest stock for big tech in my opinion. When you look at big tech companies, companies that have several hundred billion in market cap or more, Netflix is the most well positioned um, when it comes to the story, the valuation, putting all the pieces together for the next few years. And so Netflix continues to be a winner winner, chicken dinner, right? Outside of that, AMD continues to be very, very weak in this market. SanDisk continues to be weak. Micron continues to be weak. Right? Those memory chip stocks had moved up a bit, but they're still a mile and a half from their their highs. I mean, SanDisk highs from a few months ago was, you know, $2,300 a share. It's at 1500 today. MU's highs from a few months ago was 1,200 plus 937 today. AMD's highs from a you know what a month or two ago was five around 580 466 here today. So those stocks continue to be in a weakened state. But don't give up on those stocks. That's what I'll say about those. Right. I think they got at least one more big run in them potentially too. Um and then after that they probably become kangaroos. Right. So outside of that uh I wasn't you know business as usual. RH is one I'm keeping an eye on here at this point in time. Uh there's a few others I'm keeping an eye on, but yeah, we're just we're making money, baby. We're making money. Good times, right? And you look at the public count here today, up 70,000 plus dollars a share. And this is with AMD doing bad. Like, let's be honest, AMD's highs 580 or so, you know, a couple months ago. And you look at that stock today, 460s. Like, AMD is the biggest position in the public account. It's not doing good right now in the short term, right? When it comes to stock price, Meta sucks as well. That's a major position. And yet, public count's doing amazing. You wouldn't know. It's like we're having a party in the public account. And so, you got to ask yourself, how do you position properly a portfolio to because earlier in the year, AMD was doing amazing. Public count's doing amazing despite a bunch of stocks doing horrible in public account. And now, it's like public account's still having a party with AMD sucking, right? So, you got to understand something very important. Listen, diversity matters. Diversity matters. Understanding how to position a portfolio over several year span, GVD, right? And doing it properly and understanding when you get those certain opportunities when a great company is significantly underpriced, you got to pounce and you got to invest heavily into it. So AMD a few years ago stock was very underpriced. It was hundred something dollars a share and I was buying that stock insanely aggressively, right? I spoke about on the channel many times and you know a lot of people have made crazy money from AMD right af was was significantly undervalued and you know just a couple months ago I was loading up on shares and I was talking about it publicly on the channel I'm loading up on ELF loading up on ELF right and uh now we've made like stupid money on ELF right and that's after making already stupid money on ELF from years ago from when I was buying that stock at like $7 a share right now recently I've been loading up on Celsius and that's already starting to look very good, right? Uh if you look at several months ago, I was loading up on what SAS stocks, stocks like Service Now, stocks like Salesforce. Now those ones are extremely green for me and making me huge money. So it's going to be different stocks at different time periods that you invest into, right? And you got to understand how to identify opportunities. You got to understand when a company's very undervalued and you got to understand, you got to put your chips on the table when you got a good hand, right? And so that's the name of the game. And the only way public count really gets hurt is you have to have a bare market. Outside of that, we're going to find ways to win regardless of the market. Unless we're in a big bare market when the whole stock market's in a crash, okay, everybody goes down in that environment. That's fine. Like because bare markets are here today, gone tomorrow. Bare markets last usually, depends on the bare market, 6 months to two years. Here today, gone tomorrow. Meanwhile, the bull markets, those last for five, seven, eight years, you know, over a period of time. If you have a 10ear span, you should kind of prep mentally for one to two of those 10 years to be bad, one of those years to be, you know, nothing, and seven of those years to be very good years. And so, uh, that's the name of the game. Now, if you want to take your investing up to a much higher level and you want to stop procrastinating, you want to become a much better investor, I could teach you all this stuff inside my private group. I'll put that as a pin comment down there today. Imagine you join the private group and imagine where your life is 5 years from now, 7 years from now, 10 years from now after you learn all this stuff from me, right? Like, it's incredible. I teach you the whole game and people put it off and they're like, "Oh, you know, I'll do it six months from now. I'll join the private group a year from now, two years from now, five years from now or whatever." And I'm like, keep putting it off. You're putting off your whole life. You're putting off your all your dreams. Do what you want to do. That's up to you, boo. But um you know, I would take things much more serious than what you're taking them, right? Cuz I see a lot of people, they they don't know how to position portfolios. They don't know how to identify if a company's undervalued or overvalued. They they're gambling money in the market. And I'm like, dude, I could teach you all this stuff, man. It's right there. It's a pin comment. It's up to you. You do what you want. Okay, let's talk about another stock that I have that exploded higher here today and where that stock's headed from here and what's going on there. This company is Estee Lauder. Say it louder. Okay, we're now making a fortune on the stock now at this point in time. Okay, so what's going on here with Estee Lauder? Well, their latest quarterly results came out and the top of the income statement looked very good. After that, they had a couple bad line items. So, I gave them a C+ overall. This could have been a B+ or maybe even an A minus grade if they would have not had restructuring charges that really hurt them. But net sales was up 6% for the company year-over-year. Meanwhile, cost of sales, they brought that down 7%. If your revenue is going up and your cost of sales is going down, your gross profit's going to do amazing. And gross profit went up 11% year-over-year. Nice double- digit growth the company. Gross margin 75.5% from 72%. They had this restructuring charge that really hurt them which is $293 million charge there. Okay. And so ultimately the company's in a much better financial position than they were at this time last year. And so C++ grade overall for their income statement. If you look at the different line items for Estee Lauder, skincare was up 9%, makeup was up 3%, fragrance was up 10%, hair care which is a very small line item was down 1% there. And if you look at their operating loss or income, skincare, they went to a $331 million operating income versus a $210 million loss in the same quarter last year, right? Makeup was a one category that went more negative, 70 mil negative there versus 59. Keep in mind, this is usually kind of a weaker quarter for the company, right? Fragrance that went to $8 million loss for that particular line item versus 24 million in the same quarter last year. And hair care got better even though revenue was down there, right? And so headed in the right direction. This is the turnaround year we needed. As far as geographic regions, America region, that was 5% net sales growth on a non-GAAP basis. The UK in emerging markets, that was 1% growth. Asia-Pacific, 9% growth. And then mainland China, 7% growth. Right. And their operating income went to $267 million from $288 million operating loss in the same quarter last year. So things head in the right direction and then as far as what the CEO had to say th this was the really important part right keep in mind all the numbers they got on the right track for this year but next year is what really matters and they're already this was their last fiscal quarter in the 2026 so now they're moving to their fiscal 2027 okay fiscal year is different than calendar year keep that in mind for any newbie investors uh watching us right now for fiscal 2027 we are re we are affirming our confidence to accelerate organic sales growth. In addition, we are raising our outlook for an even stronger adjusted operating margin as we double down on our strength to further diversify growth across product categories, geographies, including accelerating growth in North America. So, what do we have here with Estee Lauder? And what are we looking at here? We're looking at a company that is confident they're going to be growing revenue, growing margins, and growing profitability. You've got the trifecta. you've got the trifecta. And so Estee Lauder, this stock has a incredible runway of growth ahead in terms of the stock price. And so remember Estee Lauder's all-time high, I don't think a lot of people realize this. Estee Lauder's all-time high stock price, do you know what it was? Keep in mind, the stock's like $98 today. The all-time high for Estee Lauder is like $370 a share. Okay, we have a long long runway when it comes to stock price gaining. The turnaround's clear as can be. You know, over this fiscal year they just went through the fiscal year 2026. This was the year that I said was going to happen. It was going to be the clear turnaround year, right? And it was clear like you look at the numbers, everything's gotten dramatically better. And now the fiscal year 2027 that is going to be the building on this much stronger base now at this point in time. And so uh the moral of the story is here it's going to be fun times for a while in Estee Lauder and I have 0% interest in getting out of this company. I like this as a long-term hold. I really like it as a long-term hold. The brands they have, you got to understand something about very powerful brands like somebody like Estee Lauder. Those brands resonate over decades, over decades, and they have ups and downs and certain cycles they're hotter than and then not, right? But real brands that last decades, those are very few and far between. And so the next stock I see is the next Estee Lauder. And people don't believe in the stock right now, but I'm like, I think this is next up. It's Nike. And people don't believe in it. The stock has sucked for years. Guess what? Estee Lauder sucked from years. Estee Lauder went from $370 down to $49 a share. And I looked at that stock and I'm like, "Oh my gosh, this is a steel deal. I can get this stock way under $100 a share. It's a steel deal." And I started gobbling up shares left and right. Right? And I look at a stock like Nike today. The stock's been in the 30s and 40s. I'm like, "This is a steel deal in my opinion." Right? I don't think people understand how important a long-term brand is and how insanely hard it is to build a long-term brand. It's not super hard to build a brand that's relevant over three or five or seven years, but to build a brand that's relevant decade after decade after decade after decade, it's so rare. And there's very few that can do it. And Estee Lauder has several of those brands. Nike is one of those brands. Nike is going to be insanely relevant in the 2030s, more relevant than they were this decade. And that's just the way that goes over time, right? And so, uh, I think people should spend more time understanding branding and understanding brand strength and how a brand is built and how hard it is to maintain a brand. Because a lot of people have opinions on, well, this brand's not in right now or this brand's out. I'm like, man, you gota If you if you've never built a brand yourself, I think it's hard to comment on it. Once you build a brand, whether it's a personal brand, um whether it's a company brand, you you understand it's difficult. And then to maintain it for years and years and years, is difficult. Um and when we're talking about brands that last decades and they keep pouring money into that brand decade after decade after decade, special. Very, very special. Right. And so, yeah, I see several brands with estate that it's like, man, they got a long runway of growth, right? And I think Nike's next up. Okay, let's go ahead and get into Tom Lee's favorite stock to avoid in 2026, and we'll get to that in a minute. However, he added JPM, JP Morgan, and he added Arista Networks to the core stock ideas list. You own Arista? >> We do. >> It's on your core. >> Owned it. Yes. >> List, right? It's been it's been a core holding. It's participating in AI networking along with Cisco and Sienna. Um we've had it for quite some time. It's worked incredibly well and the revenue growth is accelerating. >> All right. JPM Kev, take that one before Joe cuz he owns that too, but I want to hear from you. >> Yeah, I agree with Tom on Arista. I agree with him on JP Morgan. Best of breed financial services. I think that the the the awakening of IPOs is not over and this company is 100% deserving of being on his list. Okay, let's go ahead and take a look at JP Morgan and let's take a look at AET, right? So, let's go ahead and see where these companies are at, at least valuationwise. Arista Networks, very two very different companies, by the way. So, JP Morgan, Ford P14, you might say, "Oh, that's really low." Debatable. Not really. B big banks like JP Morgan traditionally they trade at forward pees you know at least as long as I've been tracking JP Morgan I've been in the stock market for like 18 years now uh JP Morgan very common for that forward P to be 10 to 17 so 14 is not it's it's about right right uh next year earnings per share growth a little worrisome in regards to what analysts have next year revenue growth it's going to be roughly flat it looks like for JP Morgan so if that's true. Uh it's hard to make a strong argument for JP Morgan in my personal opinion. Right. ADA's a very good company. I don't think it's necessarily undervalued, but I think it's fairly valued right here. So, I wouldn't have a problem buying it. I don't think you're getting ripped off, but I also don't think it's necessarily like the best buy in the market. There's a lot better stocks out there in my personal opinion. But not bad stocks there from Tommy. >> So, do you disagree then? Was that the punch line? You disagree with him on Robin Hood because you own that? I couldn't disagree more. Yeah, I mean, I think he got it right on those two, but I'm gonna have to push back to Tom on Robin Hood. Revenues were up 32% to a record 1.13 billion. Earnings per share were up 48%. They had a record 22 billion of net assets. >> Why does the stock look like that? >> This is a stock that has a very high valuation. And if you look at it and you stretch it out a little bit longer, you haven't made much money over the past year. But if you look at it over the past three years, there's not many stocks we've made more money with. I just believe in Vlad. I believe in this company and I think that the next generation of investors are invested in this ecosystem. >> You think the market too correlates it with Bitcoin? >> Absolutely. And incorrectly. >> Yeah. I don't think this should trade with Bitcoin. It did for a long time. And if you think of the original version of Robin Hood, that's what it was. It was a thing for kids to trade online during co and it really was the the the um the Bitcoin proxy, I think, from the stock perspective after it went public. But I think it's matured to a true financial services company. They've made an acquisition of an RAIA. They own a custodial platform. There's a lot more going on here. >> Brand new. So would I, you know, Robin Hood, do I like the stock? The answer, >> yeah, I like it, but am I going to go buy it? Absolutely not. Robin Hood's a stock I'll I'll pick up if I'm going to ever buy it. I'll pick it up in a bare market. And when I say, "Well, we'll never have a bare market, man. Of course, we're going to have bare markets again, right? Of course, we're going to have crash markets again." That's when I want to pick up a stock like Robin Hood, like when their assets under management's going down substantially, when retail investors are leaving the market because, you know, getting wrecked and all that sort of stuff. Uh when margin calls are happening, that's that's when I want to step in a stock like Robin Hood. Uh not with the market near all-time highs. I mean, where's the Dow? Where's the S&P 500? Where's the NASDAQ? They're all right around all-time highs right now. I'm not going to buy Robin Hood in an all-time high market. I want to buy it when you're in a crash because that stock gets hammered, right? And it will get hammered in the next crash as well or next bare market. I don't need the S&P 500 to go up 50%. But S&P 500 goes down 20 30%. You get Robin Hood slashed by 50% easily, if not 60% or 70%. Right? Um so yeah, that's just something to kind of keep in mind there. Also, if I want to bet against the market, I don't think it's bad to bet against Hood. If you're going to bet against the market like let's let's say you know you you let's say between now and year end Robin Hood runs and the stock ends a year 140 right and then let's say you're bearish or you want to just hedge your portfolio for next year. There's nothing wrong with buying some puts on Hood or doing some sort of ET, you know, inverse ETF on Hood if you think the market's going to be weak next year if you're looking for a hedge because that's something that gets hammered in that sort of environment. >> Sold it in June. Robin Hood that is. >> Yep. Yeah. I I think it got called away at 110. Um so I'm out of the position. I think that it is definitely going to be driven by crypto. So looks like crypto is finally waking up. And so tactically I actually think Robin Hood could start also heating up because it is still still driven by that. So I disagree with Tom also. I think that if crypto wakes up, this wakes up and therefore the stock would go higher. What's so interesting is that Tom Lee is synonymous with crypto, >> right? >> And he doesn't like Robin Hood. So that to me is the most interesting part of this trade. Now it's Ethereum, I think, more so than Bitcoin if you want to make a distinction, but not by much. Guy walks around wearing pins on his jacket. >> I'm pretty I'm pretty sure >> looks like a general. >> He I'm pretty sure he had a position in micro strategy at some point. So, um, that that one seems a little counterintuitive for him not to like Robin Hood. We sold it based on a breakdown in momentum. I'd rather go to Interactive Brokers. >> Yeah. Interesting. Interesting call. All right. Tom Lee's view on the market and let me share my opinion perspectives. >> All right. And kick us off. Uh, first of all, what are your thoughts on on the mag seven type of big tech? I don't like the word hyperscalers, but um, are these companies that you own or have been avoiding? just so we get a sense for how the these commitments might factor into your your view. >> Short short answer is yes, we own them. Uh and for a long time I've been saying buy chips on dips. Uh because we think that this is this is just the infrastructure buildout of AI. And so when we look at all these large numbers, we're recognized, >> okay, is it just me? Is it just me? Or does this man look like a politician? I swear this guy looks like a politician. No. Right. We're going through a transformation for our economy that's as big as a trans >> like if he was running for governor, if he was running for to be a senator, I would not be surprised at all. >> Continental railroad. We're spending about two 2 and a2% of our total GDP >> on on the AI buildout. Maybe a little bit more. Well, that's about what we spent on the transcontinental railroad from 1850 to >> refresh my memory. Which were the right rail railroad stocks to bend on during that time? >> Not all of them. >> Not all of them. And that's true. Not everybody is going to knock the cover off the ball, but you have this insatiable desire for being in front of what's really important. I mean, it only matters if it increases labor productivity. If AI doesn't increase labor productivity, it's just >> other words, you don't care if it's 600 billion here or whatever trillion in the future. As long as they're spending on the railroad boom, you're okay owning these stocks. >> We're we're spending on the AI boom and and we're spending we're going to in 2027, we're going to spend more on AI and the and that boom than we do on the Department of Defense. Here's the thing that uh Tom I wonder about the Wall Street Journal article because when I see all that off-balance sheet financing, I start to remember Enron and all the offbalance sheet financing and it's on top of that you've got these structures with the private credit funds that have a holding company that's in the JV and then there's a third company that actually is issuing the bonds. So in the end, who's holding the bag and is that more offiscation than actual good business? and should we be worried about what seems to be a lack of transparency in terms of who's really lending the money and who's going to be stuck with it in the end? Um, it's a great question because I was a tech analyst during the dotcom and fiber boom of the '9s and uh the people investing capital that time were not of the same ilk and caliber of the mag seven. you know, these were companies that were digging up railroad lines and uh doing those IRUs, you know, which was actually >> what's an IRU? >> It was a uh revenue swap between fiber companies. So, you could create hundreds of billions of dollars of uh contractual revenue. And um today we have companies with very sizable moes and some of the highest profit margins and return on capital in history. and as the Bezos metric have delivered trillions of dollars of shareholder return that are now directing their investment on building uh a new mode around AI. So I have a lot more confidence that these are highlevel board wellreasoned companies investing but they're eyepopping numbers but the reality is >> why not do it on balance sheet? Well, >> one, uh, they could do it on balance sheet, but if they did, they would be taking up all the capital of the world and all the risk and therefore actually make it harder for any I would argue that that would make it harder for to democratize. >> Can I ask an accounting question? We're we were calling this off I did get a C in accounting. I got a C. So, I need to ask all of you to make sure I'm understanding this. They have offbalance sheet commitments because they're future commitments. Is that right? These are they're not hiding anything. Yes. They they're not on the balance sheet because they don't flow through the balance sheet until the building actually begins. So, in other words, are they >> this is just a different way to look at but if they say, "Okay, we're going to spend whatever amount in 2027." Can you explain to me exactly what these commitments are and why they're not on the balance sheet and when they will be? >> Yeah. Um well I think maybe a good place to start is I think that the revelations uh from the journal article are actually helpful but they're giving people an incomplete picture of how financial systems work because if you do uh you know the gross obligations of the financial system it's multiple times the underlying assets >> always or just today >> always. In fact that's why Warren Buffett used to call credit derivatives you know the weapons of mass destruction. Are these credit derivatives that we're talking about though or these are just future spend commitments? >> It's the same arguably it's not that different because if you did like gross exposure of uh swaps or options like look at in any day options contracts are multiples of cash underlying. So if someone says oh there's a hidden offbalance sheet risk that retail investors have 20 times the size of the stock market in beds. We'd be like well there's the offset. So I I would say when we look at these numbers uh it's giving a distorted view of the actual risk. >> Let me just press this analogy one more. In other words, do you think that the spending is representing multiple possibilities of spend that's only going to manifest in one way? >> I think to me um none of these contracts like are going to lead to criminal liability. Like in other words like a company can decide to cut spending in the future and the contract should be weak. So like the 3 trillion isn't like >> you know people have to like write sign over their kidneys to to and how should investors think about this? I mean should they be worried or should they be encouraged that wow it's not just $600 billion is going it's actually an additional you know 1.4 or up to three trillion and so therefore that's a good sign about the future of AI. How should investors interpret all this? I >> I think it's a good sign because companies are making a lot of money free cash flow and what were they doing before? They were buying back their own stock. they were they didn't have anywhere to go with the money that they were making. And so I like it when someone's said, "No, I'm not going to buy back my stock because I'm going to actually put it into the thing that I do best, which is grow and do these things." So I like that the capital is being redeployed into what these companies do because that's their core business. They're not hedge funds. >> Whoa. Hold your horses one flip and flapjack moment. Listen, we got to decipher here between the economy and the stock market because it's much better for the economy if Amazon Google Meta everybody right is just spending stupid amounts of money. And who knows if they'll get the ROI in that, but hey, buy as many chips as you can, buy as much infrastructure as you can, as much Caterpillar equipment as you can, hire as many workers to build these facilities, and boom. Okay, that's the best thing for the economy. For the stock market, that's a very different thing. Stock market's thinking, okay, you're spending everything you got coming in, uh, what's left for us as investors? Nothing. If you got if you're spending everything, you got nothing to give back to your shareholders, right? And you got a trillion dollar market cap, multi-t trillion dollar market cap, but nothing to show at at the end of the day because you have no free cash flow. Like the free cash flow, the profits, like that's what you usually send back to shareholders. And you can do that in many various ways. Uh you can buy out other companies and make profits from those companies. You can do share buybacks, right, and increase everybody's ownership of the company without them even having to buy more shares because you're taking shares off the market. You can pay dividends, right? Uh you can do a bunch of different things all at the same time. You can pay down debt so you make your company even less risky. These companies aren't doing that. So you have nothing as a shareholder like based on what all these big tech companies will spend next year, they're all going to have likely negative free cash flow. Negative. So you're going in the hole as an investor. Not only do you not have anything to show for to do a share buyback or pay dividends, but you're going in the hole for it and your balance sheet's getting worse. So as an investor is not it's not really a good thing. uh unless you can somehow make all that money back. And I have big doubts that any of these companies are going to make the money back. They're just in a battle to try to get market share to hopefully win long term, right? But if a company next year is going to spend $250 billion on capex, they're not getting that back. They might get a portion of that back and they might avoid their business being disrupted long term because they spent on it, right? But they're not getting that money back. And so I think that's an important thing to kind of understand about this and the difference between the economy and the difference between the stock market. >> They need to be out there putting their money to work in what they do. So as a a growth investor, I like it. I like CFOs and I like CEOs and I like boards going like this is our fast ball. We're Microsoft. You talked about the productivity litmus test. A lot of this particularly the bonds are based on revenue expectations in 2 to three years that are ginormous compared to what they are today. Do you think we get there based on >> I mean 56% of the companies today have an AI account but only about 30% of them are I mean 30% of them say hey I'm seeing increased labor productivity and only 7% say we fully implemented. So you have all of these companies that have yet to play. You have all these companies that are just now scratching the surface. We're moving from we're moving from infrastructure to implementation. We're moving from proof of concept to rapid adoption. And this is an area time where we think you know margins are good. Uh you know the wotes are getting wider. You think that can happen without a dramatic rise in unemployment? >> Yes. >> That those productivity gains because productivity gains come in some ways by replacing workers with AI. >> Well, this is true. But you've seen this every time. I mean, you know, people got upset. The guys who were shoeing horses got upset when the Model T came out, but next thing you know, they got a they got a perfectly good job working in the factory and they were making more money was over with. So, I think that that we see this transition, but I think it's it's positive. This it's Jean's paradox. And >> so, it's a J curve. You don't see the bottom of that J curve being too severe. >> No, I don't. No, I don't. And and we only need about 30 to 40,000 jobs a month to maintain our unemployment right now anyway. So the break even point is less, >> the adoption's more, labor productivity is greater, and that increases profit margins. >> I'll end by put I'll just throw another major concern on the table. I mean, why not? Do you Tom 40 trillion in the national debt last night? Do what is your reaction to or take on that? >> I mean, it's pretty shocking that we're in a booming economy and the deficit's growing. Um, so >> missiles are expensive. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Interest is expensive. >> Yeah. It it seems like there's a lot of like outflows. I I agree with the folks who think that this is a structural concern, but the bond market today is signaling that it's completely okay with it. So, I think as long as it's okay with it, the stock market is fine. So, that that that little blip in the 30-year, we saw those like, oh, oh, the deficit suddenly an issue that we saw last week with that that sale. You don't think that that was really a big move or that that's going to continue? Yeah, I mean it's it is a symbolic rate because as you know maybe more companies are dependent on the spread to the tenure, right? >> So that's the more important rate to watch, but again like I I don't think it makes any sense to not be physically sound as a nation. So it is >> hard it's really hard to figure out why. >> You know what's amazing >> the bottom line is when it comes to that specific subject listen 18 years I've been playing this game. 18. This has been a subject always. It's is I don't see it ever not being a subject. Oh my gosh, national debt. National debt. Like it's probably going to 100 trillion, you know. I don't know what to tell you, you know. And then people say, you can't can't go to 100 trillion. That's impossible. Uh they said that about 10 trillion. They said that about a trillion back in the day. They said that about a trillion. They said about 10 trillion. So at about 20 trillion, 30 trillion, 40 trillion. going to say it about 50 trillion. They're going to say about 100 trillion. Um, it just is what it is. Like I don't know what to what to tell you about that. That just is what it is. Adam Peter Park and CEO and a CNBC contributor. Welcome back. >> Hey, good to see you. >> So, what about this back up in yields, you know, this bare steepening, the, you know, the long end rising faster than the short end is continuing to be a story. What do we think? >> I think it's fleeting. I think it's fleeting. I mean, in the really short term, you can get a sell off, especially with with tech stocks up a lot in the last few years, but ultimately when you study the long history of the change in rates versus the change in equities, there really isn't a statistically significant relationship because usually ultimately if yields are high, it's cuz growth is good. And if growth is good, tech stocks and the stock market can can do well. So, I think it's fleeting, honestly. Is this does this have as much to do with growth prospects as it does these other, you know, issues like the issuance of all of this paper, uh, Fed communication, more focus on the deficit and debt and things like that? Is this really about growth prospects? Cuz the most recent economic data doesn't h actually scream like, hey, rip roaring economy. >> I think the economy is in pretty good shape. I mean, look, I I guess the challenge always has been, you know, if you would ask me once a year for the last 15 years, am I worried about US government deficit? Um, or or or sometimes the way you ask it, are you at all worried? And then I feel it ages like milk if I say no. Right. But the the question is like, should I change my portfolio positioning today for the inevitability that that finally matters right now when it's been obvious for 15 years? I don't think so. I think ultimately the economy is strong enough. I think the earnings and cash flows from these big companies are strong enough that they'll power through any kind of scare that happens around this. One of the things I learned in the past is whenever you see people make the argument that bond yields will back up because demand be weak, they're wrong. That's that's happened zero of the last hundred times that that I've heard that call from the big bull market firms because when people get afraid and there's truly a growth scare, then the 10ear yield goes lower again. So I'm not that worried about that. I think this is more positioning and a little bit short-term profit taking after a pretty big rip from Lowe's and some of the text not a longer signal. >> When you ask the question, should I be changing my portfolio as a result of this? I mean, that is a relevant question. If you think I think so if you think that the longer duration assets are going to, you know, have an issue if yields continue to back up. So maybe the momentum trade does have a little bit of a problem for a bit. Yeah. >> Who knows? I mean, you don't know what what yields are going to do. You also got to wait to hear from Kevin Wars coming up. The Fed share in Jackson Hole is not that far away. And by the way, Nvidia next week. There's a lot a lot of variables. >> In a three, six, 12month view, I'm not worried about it. In a twoe view, I don't know. Right. I mean, and you could see people being a little bit, you know, afraid of this back up in a shorter term view. That's why the home builders are down, etc. But are you saying, you know, if the question is, is the trajectory of corporate earnings uh impaired? Is there going to be a real growth scare about that? I don't think so. No margin. Yeah, I mean my two cents in regards to that whole situation with yields and treasuries listen you have to just say I don't care unless it gets out of control. Like, you know, if if the 2-year goes to 6, 7%, okay, we got concerns, right? Because a lot of people are going to say, I'm not going to put my money in the market. I'm just going to buy a two-year Treasury at that point in time, right? If I can get six and a half% on a two-year, I'm going there, right? Four and a half, people like six and a half, seven and a half, oh, now we're in big trouble, right? Because usually people say S&P 500 can give you 8 to 9% gains a year. Um, but outside of that, do what you do. Continue to build your portfolio stronger. Buy stocks consistently, either every week, every other week, or every month, and just focus on finding the great opportunities. And the rest will be what the rest is going to be. All that stuff moves around. is here today, gone tomorrow. Great companies are going to continue to be great, be much more profitable 5 years from now than they are today and 10 years from now than they are today, right? And so, uh, that's where the focus needs to be. Okay? Appreciate you guys joining me as always. Thank you so much for being here. 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