I do think you should have a little bit and that's where I'm at.
Contexte
He says he has some Bitcoin exposure and is bullish enough to want some exposure.
Transcription Complète
So stocks are not looking so hot today, guys. Every index in the US market's down. We have oil up, the VIX is up, the metals are up, and somehow some way Bitcoin is up over 6% on the day, which don't worry guys, we'll cover that in this video. The Clarity Act, what the heck's going on. So guys, hit the like button, make sure to subscribe, join my Patreon if you want to keep up with my portfolio updates, trades, investments, if you want to be a part of my private Discord. All that's linked down below in the bio in the comments or go to stocksurfest.com/patreon. And now, cheers. Take a sip of your coffee. I appreciate you all for tuning in. Let's dive into it. So again, we're down across the board. And no, we're not crashing. This is not a collapse. The charts still look good. Uh but we're down. We're seeing more and more volatility here over the last couple of days. Now, the VIX is at uh almost 16 again. We're up around 5% on the VIX as Bitcoin is up over 6%. Crude oil, WTI crude is up what 2%. We have Brent up around where the heck's Brent about 1.7%. Gold and silver, they're both doing well. And again, every index is down, but listen, the charts still look good. SPY is still well above 660, which was resistance for a couple of months. And as long as we maintain that, the bulls will be in charge, right? And let's be honest, we got a little overbought. We hit all-time highs at 780, which that came what, about a week ago. So, we've been due for a pullback. We're now getting it. And this is where I think buyers will start to come in. anywhere between 75560 to 765. And oh, by the way, SPY is at 766 right now. So, this is a healthy pullback. We're still above the 180 SMA. And the Q's right now, which we're trading at about what, 712, down around half a percent. The Q's are also maybe not looking as great as SPY, but they're also above the 180 moving average. And in the grand scheme of things, we're still in an uptrend on the on the 4hour chart, on the one-year chart, we're still in an uptrend. And by the way, do you guys remember a couple of days ago, I bought those uh I put a trade on the put debit spreads? Those are looking pretty decent right now. Uh which if you guys are in the Patreon, you saw my full-on breakdown on that trade. And it's not a crazy, you know, I didn't put 10 20% of my portfolio in that trade. Um, it's more so a hedge, a small, you know, percentage of my portfolio. But that's why I put it on, guys. That's why I put the trade on because stocks in general were super hot. We were running aggressively for a good 2, three weeks, all of August, and I figured it was time to put that trade on. And that was when the cues were at like 720. And I'm not in crazy profit yet on that trade. uh for me to actually get into profit, the Q's need to go under um seven. Well, my break even's at 703. Um I think the Q's Yeah, I I I did the 710 690, so I think 7 Yeah, I'm pretty sure 710. The Q's need to get down to 703 for me to recoup, you know, what I you know, the debit, right? And then anything from 703 down to 690 in that trade is pure profit for me. And I'm not saying it's going to happen for sure, right? But it's there as insurance, right? If the Q's get down to 690, I'm going to make some decent money and I'll be able to protect my portfolio. That's why I put that trade on. Um, and again, we talk about all this stuff. I don't want to keep plugging the Patreon, but that's where we go even deeper. Um, that's where we go, you know, the most in depth on these trades and the ideas. Um, it's all on Patreon right here. We, you know, we talk about it, but we more so talk about a bunch of topics. Um, and we can't really get crazy in depth in a 10-minute video. You know what I mean, guys? Uh, but yeah, the Q's are down, S&P's down, the Russell is leading, the loss is down 1.1%, the Dow's down about 3/4 of a percent. And again, all these are fine. They're all maintaining trends. This is simply a pullback. And Bitcoin, guys, Bitcoin, this thing is going berserk. And we're finally starting to see some positive price action. Who would have thought? Go figure. It's about freaking time, right? Bitcoin was stuck at at 60 to 63K, 58K uh for months. I mean, since really, well, I guess not that long, but since the beginning of June, about two and a half months, we've been stuck in this little um, you know, range right here, we've we've been struggling to get back through um 63 64,000, which was support uh for quite a bit here back in the uh in the beginning of the year, right? And that became resistance for a little bit. Now we're plowing through and we're actually starting to fill this gap all the way to 80 to 80 85k, right? Do I think for sure it's going to get there? I don't know. I mean, with Bitcoin, anything's anything is possible. This thing could easily go up 10,000 in in in a day, down 10,000 in a day. Um, and at this point, it is overbought, but it is slowly filling this gap to the mid70s. Right now we're at 73,000 which we haven't been in the middle low70s um for about 3 months. So Bitcoin is finally starting to run. Big resistance though coming up between 75 and 80K. Keep that in mind. And guys, if it takes out 83K, big if. But if it does, that's where this gets very very interesting. That's where things really will start to pick up in my opinion for the bulls. um above 80 83K and ideally you kind of want to already be positioned for that if you're bullish Bitcoin big if if you're a believer in crypto which I know some of you guys probably aren't and me personally look I have a little fraction of my portfolio in Bitcoin so I'm not a huge I I believe in Bitcoin crypto but I'm not one of these maximalists I'm far from it quite frankly but I do think you should have a little bit and that's where I'm at. Um, either way, this is something that you've been waiting for for a while. And let me not yap too much. Let me pull up this article here on CNBC. Um, and by the way, guys, smash that like button. Make sure to subscribe. Hit that follow button if you haven't done so already. It helps me out overall in the algorithm. So, we're hearing about the Clarity Act. We're seeing Trump meeting up with all these crypto leaders. And if we come down here a little bit, it's trading at the highest levels since June. Really, thanks to a lastditch effort push from the White House and the crypto industry leaders to get the Clarity Act across the finish line in the coming weeks. And listen guys, this pump in Bitcoin could easily be um sold off if we don't get the Clarity Act um to get pushed through, right? it it's pretty obvious that that that's how it's going to play out. If the Clarity Act doesn't happen, Bitcoin's probably going to give back a lot of these gains, especially if it runs up even more. Now, it's at 73 72. If it goes to a 75 handle, 80, right? It's probably going to get um nailed if this doesn't get pushed through or maybe it gets pushed back months. Who knows, right? Uh but at this point, this is what crypto is running on. finally a catalyst, a good catalyst, probably the best one we've seen, you know, in in a long time. You know what I mean? It's this thing's been stuck. Like I said, it's been stuck all year. And the rally began Wednesday when Treasury yields really started to pull back um sharply. I'm sure you guys see that, easing pressure on risk assets. And that helped trigger a broader move into crypto that was later amplified by a massive short squeeze with roughly $2.7 billion in crypto short positions liquidated. So this is a mix of you know a great catalyst which led to shorts panicking covering which then led to a short squeeze and let's be honest there's probably there's probably some whales piling in to push this up even higher. I mean, I haven't looked at the volume too much. Uh, but it it's spiking, but we we haven't, you know, dove I haven't d or dove too deep into it, but volume's kicking up. You could speculate there are some whales starting to buy back in here on, you know, the good news around the Clarity Act, blah blah blah, Trump meeting with um all these guys. And we can see the White House hosted the CEOs of leading crypto companies. Like I said, man, uh Coinbase, Kraken, Robin Hood, Ripple, and Chain Link at a lastminute event in which President Donald Trump urged Congress to pass a fair version of the crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act before the end of the year. And the meeting came in advance of the Commodity Futures Trading Commissions, uh you know, an inaugural innovation advisory committee meeting taking place on Thursday. Um and Trump said we need Congress to take the next steps by passing the Clarity Act, a fair version of the Clarity Act. It's very or a very very powerful structured legislation which will keep us ahead of China, keep us ahead of everyone else, will open the door to the next wave of innovations and innovators. And Trump's call for a fair version reflects the sticking point with Democrats who have pushed for tougher ethics rules that would prevent the president and other public officials from personally profiting from crypto while Republicans have resisted provisions they view as overly targeted or restricted. So listen guys, we're not going to get too political here. Uh we don't get political obviously, but at the end of the day, man, I am against um you know, politicians trading individual stocks. I'm against uh you know, obviously the president um you know, pumping crypto coins. I mean, what he had he he had his uh you know, what was it called? The um Trump coin, whatever the heck, man. The Trump family has gotten insanely rich um you know, in the uh in this market. um you know he's giving his his buddies stock tips you know before big announcements or maybe that's all conspiracy I don't know and listen I'm not against the president you know I I'm just I I speak I speak the reality you know I say I say what it is whether it's a Democrat or a Republican in office I am not for these big people in in politics um to to trade individual stocks crypto make legislation that benefits them, you know, pump pump. You know, I'm not all for the pumping. Obviously, right? Um, and I think I think politicians like President Trump, Nancy Pelosi, you know, people in Congress whatever congressmen congresswoman, they should be allowed to own index funds. Sure, go buy the S&P, go buy the NASDAQ, but buying individual, you know, little biotech companies or even, you know, bigger stocks, bigger companies, larger market caps, that in my opinion could lead to a conflict of interest, and it's just not a good place to be in. So, I think ultimately um there's a chance that Congress will be banned from trading stocks. Who knows when or if that will actually happen. Uh but I think they should be able to buy like a VU, an S&P, a VTI. That should be allowed. Go ahead. Because at the end of the day, you want your president, you want your uh people in Congress to have an interest in the country doing well. It's like when you work in uh you know, when you work at at a job, right? you get sometimes stock in that company, options in that company, stock options, and that, you know, incentivizes you to do better, to do well, to push the company forward, to do the right things. Um, and that's kind of the same idea here. But I think it's better again if they can own broad-based ETFs, have the um you know h have um essentially their money tied to you know the country's prosperity and uh that will make them work harder. That that's the point, you know. May maybe it doesn't work, maybe it's all BS. I don't know. But at this point, that's the quick rundown on crypto. We got a little sidetracked there, guys. I don't know why we we went on that rant, but yeah, I'm against the uh the Congress trading. I'm sure a lot of you guys are as well. Um the president, I mean, okay, maybe if his son's trading, okay, what can we do about that? But President Trump, uh you know, placing trades or any president, any person high up there, um it doesn't make sense to me. Anyway, anyway, uh what do you guys think about that? Let me know in the comments. So, with that being said, let me show you some of these crypto stocks. Coinbase is up 9% of course it's it's uh you know uh gaining even more from yesterday's pop. So this thing is up now over the last two days about 20%. Stocks like Circle Internet Group which I used to own. Um I sold it months and months and months ago. Um now this thing is up 8%. We're up around uh 25 bucks off the recent low 45%. So, this thing is going bananas right now as let's see what's another one. What was it? Oh, Robin Hood. Forgot about Robin Hood. Where the heck's that one today? Um, is it down? Wait a second. Did Robin Hood somehow go down? Um, yeah, it is down 3/4 of a percent. Robin Hood was up earlier, which is why I'm like, what? What the heck? What's going on? Um, this thing hit 102 in the morning. Yeah, this thing was at 102 in the morning, guys. Now it's at 95. That actually might be a gift for me. considering in my one account I sold calls on Robin Hood. So, let me actually see or maybe I'll just do this after the video, guys. But let me see quickly what those calls are looking like right now. I sold the 106 calls that expire on the 28th. So, next Friday, um those are expiring and I I am up 40% on those. So, I am doing pretty well. I probably should close that out maybe tomorrow. Um, if this crypto stuff continues, if we get more good news around the Clarity Act, Robin Hood's probably going to rip to 105 110 next week, maybe. I'm not saying for sure. And and I don't really want my shares called away, but the uh the premium sometime is too juicy. Uh they're they're too juicy to say no to, but yeah, Robin Hood's pushing or it was, now it's down. I feel like this could be a time to add and it could be a time for me to close out those calls I sold, guys, so I don't get assigned. Uh, but either way, that's pretty much it for those crypto stocks. And listen, there are a lot of other stocks that are down. Forget the crypto stocks. Forget crypto for a second. Google is finally starting to fall into my lap a little more. I didn't buy any. I didn't buy any. Uh, but I've been saying for days, watch 340. Watch 340. Watch for that to break. We have a descending triangle. Now we're starting to break 340. We're at 338 earlier in the day. I think we hit 335, 336. So, it's starting to come down. This is a good sign, especially if you want to buy longterm, which I'm looking to add more to my long-term stake. Um, and if this thing were to come down, like I said before, 315, 320, even 330, another $8 down from here, I'm looking to add another chunk. Um, and I have a good amount of cash on the sidelines, guys, throughout my accounts. Um, ready to take advantage of not just Google, but other stocks I'm watching as well. You know, the overall market. Um, it's exciting times. It's exciting times and yeah, it's it's a rocky day. So, what do you guys think? Let me know in the comments. Hit the like button, subscribe, join my Patreon if you want to keep up with my portfolio updates, my trades, investments, if you want to be a part of my private Discord. All that's down below pinned in the comments or go to stocksurfest.com/patreon or check out the bio. I'll see you guys in there. And with that being said, cheers. Have a great rest of your
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